Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
Insurgent Group
PF Score
34
Authority × 0.6 + Reach × 0.4
Authority Score
32
Capacity to coerce
Reach Score
36
Influence projection
Score Trajectory
TTP exercises meaningful but geographically constrained quasi-authority across FATA/KP border regions of Pakistan — capable of sustained insurgent operations, taxation, and parallel governance in cont…
TTP exercises meaningful but geographically limited insurgent control across Pakistan's tribal belt and KP province — capable of sustained operations, taxation in some areas, and parallel governance s…
UN-confirmed weapons and drone transfers from Taliban patron per recent intel. Cross-border operations against Pakistan now openly acknowledged by Pakistani military. TTP operational capacity expandin…
Score Reasoning
TTP exercises meaningful but geographically limited insurgent control across Pakistan's tribal belt and KP province — capable of sustained operations, taxation in some areas, and parallel governance structures, but far from consolidating territory the way RSF or Sinaloa Cartel do, placing Authority above the non-state baseline (20) but below RSF (38) and well below Sinaloa (42). Reach is constrained by the Taliban patron ceiling of 40: TTP's primary external influence mechanism is cross-border destabilization of Pakistan — a nuclear state — which is genuinely significant and distinguishes it from floor-level actors, but its dependence on Afghan Taliban sanctuary and the absence of any proxy network of its own caps reach clearly within the 20-39 reactive band, calibrated above Houthis (24) given TTP's more focused and effective single-theater pressure on a higher-value target state. With no linked events or case studies to shift these baselines, scores rest on structural positioning between the non-state floor, the patron ceiling, and the peer registry.