Conflicts

Active major war. Operation Epic Fury launched Feb 28, 2026 — joint US-Israeli strikes targeting Iranian nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, navy, and senior military/political leadership. Supreme Leader Khamenei killed by airstrike Feb 28. Ali Larijani has declared an interim committee to manage succession. Iran's navy significantly degraded (9 ships, navy HQ struck). Trump confirmed 4-5 week campaign timeline on March 1. No coherent US post-conflict governance plan publicly articulated. IRGC intact but leaderless at senior levels. Iranian nuclear program status unknown post-strikes.

One of world's deadliest conflicts. 12M+ displaced — world's largest displacement crisis. Genocide designation by multiple international bodies for RSF Darfur atrocities. 522,000 infant deaths from malnutrition in 18 months. SAF recaptured Khartoum March 2025 but RSF expanding northern front via Libya. Stalemate emerging with geographic partition trajectory.

[Updated Feb 26, 2026] Active intense combat. Russia holds ~18% of Ukrainian territory. Frontline largely static — Russia continues grinding gains but without operational breakthroughs (Kofman: performance 'underwhelming' in 2025). Russian casualties nearing 1.3M dead and wounded; oil revenue -24% last year; fiscal balance gone from surplus to -$70B deficit (Ignatius/FP Feb 26). Russian hybrid war campaign against Europe (arson, parcel bombs, shadow fleet, satellite intercepts) has backfired — triggered European defense cohesion, ~600 Russian intel officers expelled, BND going 'more operational,' UK imposed ~300 new sanctions. Europe now planning for conventional defense without guaranteed US support. US reduced intelligence sharing 2025; Trump pressuring ceasefire. Score revised 78→75; Gap Trend revised Widening→Stable based on Russia's plateauing territorial gains and compounding structural costs.

Fragile ceasefire since Jan 2025 but hostilities resuming. Gaza death toll approaching 62,000. UN labels humanitarian situation 'catastrophic.' West Bank violence escalating separately. Israel conducting post-Assad Syria operations. Hostage negotiations ongoing. Two-state solution framework effectively collapsed — no viable political horizon.

Brotherhood Alliance controls significant territories in Shan and Rakhine states. Junta losing ground but retains air power advantage. NUG (government in exile) coordinates PDF but limited command integration. Junta-controlled territory shrinking. China-brokered ceasefires fragile. No political resolution pathway visible.

Viv Ansanm controls ~85% of Port-au-Prince. MSS force limited impact. 4,500+ killed in 2024-2025. Near-doubling of fatalities pushed Haiti to #8 globally in ACLED Conflict Index. No functioning government capacity. Population displacement massive. MSS reinforcement requested but international community hesitant.

Tigray ceasefire holding but fragile. Amhara insurgency (Fano) active in Amhara region. OLA insurgency ongoing in Oromia. Ethiopia fighting on multiple fronts. TPLF disarmament incomplete. Risk of renewed Tigray fighting. Abiy government stable but facing multi-flank insurgencies.

De facto ceasefire in Yemen civil war since 2022 largely holding. But Houthis conducting independent Red Sea campaign targeting Israel-linked shipping in solidarity with Gaza — continuing despite US/UK airstrikes. Iran-Saudi normalization (2023) has reduced direct Iranian incitement. Houthis now autonomous actor with global reach.

Jihadist groups control expanding territory despite Wagner presence. JNIM besieging major towns. Burkina Faso situation particularly dire — capital Ouagadougou under intermittent attack threat. US withdrawing forces from Niger (completed 2024). France fully expelled. Russia-backed juntas unable to reverse jihadist gains. Civilian atrocities by both juntas+Wagner and jihadists.

HTS-led transitional government in Damascus. Multiple competing armed factions control different regions. Turkish-SNA pressure on Kurdish areas intensifying. US maintaining ~900 troops protecting SDF. ISIS conducting insurgency in central desert. Israel's buffer zone in southern Syria expanding. No unified governance — effectively partitioned.

ISWAP dominant in northeast, Boko Haram (JAS) fragments. Bandit violence in northwest affecting 8 states. Farmer-herder violence in Middle Belt killing thousands annually. Niger Delta pipelines under attack. Tinubu government (since 2023) pursuing negotiation tracks. Multiple simultaneous conflicts draining military capacity.

Pakistan experiencing worst terrorism levels since 2014. TTP conducting weekly major attacks. BLA escalating to mass-casualty attacks. India-Pakistan April 2025 crisis overlaid on internal insurgencies. Economy under IMF program. Military conducting operations in North Waziristan. ACLED: Pakistan became more dangerous for civilians in 2025, driven by growing regional insurgencies.

Record fentanyl seizures (1.1 MT Dec 2025). Sinaloa internal war creating vacuum exploited by CJNG. Sheinbaum government pursuing security reform under US pressure. Trump FTO designation creates legal exposure for businesses entangled with cartels. US conducting naval interdiction operations in Latin American waters. 2026 USMCA review looms as leverage point.

[Updated Feb 26, 2026] M23/Rwanda captured Goma Jan 2025; advancing toward Bukavu. US accountability mechanisms confirmed captured: State/Treasury sanctions package against Rwanda/M23 was prepared in Jan 2026 but shelved indefinitely after Rwanda's Kagame called Sen. Lindsey Graham directly, who lobbied the White House and VP Vance's office. Senior administration figures overrode State/Treasury objections — Rwanda's leverage is its critical minerals supply (cobalt, tantalum, copper) and security partnership status. Washington Accords (Dec 4, 2025) are effectively dead. DRC's Tshisekedi visited Washington in Feb 2026 urging Congress to pass Rwanda sanctions legislation; bipartisan senators (Risch, Shaheen) backed withdrawal demands but executive branch remains captured. Humanitarian crisis: 7M+ displaced. ADF (ISIS-linked) simultaneously active in North Kivu. Trump downplayed ongoing fighting ('we'll get it straightened out') at Feb 19 Board of Peace meeting. Score raised from 87 → 90: the collapse of external enforcement mechanisms represents a structural worsening of DRC's sovereignty gap, not merely a tactical one.

Military operations ongoing. Ecuador becoming narco-state trajectory. Guayaquil among world's most dangerous cities. Prison system collapsed. State capacity severely degraded. ACLED: Ecuador had 50+ armed groups actively engaging in violence, including nearly 40 gangs. Over 2,500 events targeting civilians.

Rwandan forces stabilized Mocímboa da Praia and coastal areas. Insurgency pushed inland. TotalEnergies site security improved but project restart uncertain. RENAMO political party competing electorally — separate low-level military incidents. October 2024 elections disputed — FRELIMO claimed victory, protests killed 100+.

War of attrition. Government controls cities; Amba fighters control rural areas at night. Mass atrocities by both sides — village burnings, kidnappings, school closures affecting 700,000+ children. No peace process. Biya government denies severity. International attention minimal.

[CONFIRMED — Updated Feb 26, 2026] Operation Absolute Resolve executed January 3, 2026. Green light: 10:46 p.m. Friday Jan 2. Delta Force arrived compound: 2:01 a.m. Caracas time. Operation duration: 5 hours. Forces deployed: 150 warplanes from 20 locations (F-18, F-22, F-35, EA-18 Growler, E-2 Hawkeye, B-1 bombers, drones); ~15,000 troops assembled since August 2025. Intelligence prep: late summer 2025 via asset inside Maduro's inner circle. First attempts scrubbed Christmas and New Year's Day due to weather. Maduro and first lady Cilia Flores extracted by 3:29 a.m., transported on USS Iwo Jima to New York for narcoterrorism charges in SDNY (alleged facilitation of 'thousands of tons of cocaine'). Planning team: Rubio, Hegseth, Ratcliffe, Stephen Miller. One US aircraft hit but flyable; no Americans killed. Trump: US would 'run Venezuela' until transition of power — no timeline given. Cuba–Venezuela patron relationship severed (Cuba had received ~80,000 bbl/day in exchange for intelligence/security services). Paramilitary groups (Colectivos, FARC/ELN borderlands) remain active. Post-authoritarian power vacuum is the dominant open analytical question. ~8M Venezuelans in exile; Trump also moving to revoke TPS for 600,000 in US.

Arakan Army controls ~80% of Rakhine State. Rohingya remain stateless and displaced. AA-Rohingya relations tense — AA conducted attacks on Rohingya during campaign. Bangladesh-Myanmar border incidents increasing. No repatriation pathway. International Criminal Court proceedings against Myanmar ongoing.

Al-Shabaab controls ~20% of territory, collects taxes from 60%+ of population including government-held areas. Hamakar offensive (FGS + clan militias) made gains 2022-2023 but stalled. AU peacekeeping force (ATMIS) withdrawing — replaced by smaller AUSSOM. US airstrikes ongoing. Ethiopia-Somalia tensions over Somaliland sea access deal complicating regional cooperation. Puntland declared independence from federal framework 2023.

Post-ceasefire stalemate (Nov 2024–present). Lebanese Army deploying south. Hezbollah militarily degraded, structurally intact. Israeli near-daily strikes continue. Hezbollah rejected disarmament decree. New Lebanese government (Aoun/Salam 2025) attempting state consolidation. Outcome uncertain — window open but not guaranteed.

Taliban governing, internationally isolated, economy collapsed. ISKP conducting regular attacks inside Afghanistan and planning external operations. TTP attacking Pakistan from Afghan territory. Opium production now banned by Taliban (compliance unclear). Women and girls' rights systematically eliminated. No functioning economy — humanitarian crisis.

Petro 'total peace' negotiations stalled — ELN continues attacks while negotiating. FARC-EMC expanding territorial control in coca-producing regions. Gulf Clan largest criminal organization. Record coca production despite peace deal. Ecuador narco-violence spilling from Colombian supply chains. Violence in 2025 worse than 2024.

April 2025 Pahalgam attack and Indian military response marked sharpest escalation in decades. Both nuclear arsenals on alert. International community (US, China) pressured de-escalation. Situation returned to baseline high-tension but fundamental dynamics unchanged. Line of Control (LoC) remains contested. Cross-border militant infiltration continues.

Active low-level combat reignited July 2025, paused then resumed per CFR 2026 risk assessment. ASEAN mediation ongoing. Diplomatic resolution possible but domestic politics in both countries complicate.

AES (Mali/Burkina/Niger) bloc consolidated with Russian backing. ECOWAS sanctions largely ineffective. Gabon junta (Sept 2023 coup) partially restored. Guinea-Bissau April 2025 coup attempt reported. Transition to civilian rule promised by most juntas but timelines slipping. Jihadist violence unabated or worsening despite Wagner presence.

ISIS attacks ongoing in Anbar, Diyala, Kirkuk. PMF-US tension continued despite ceasefire 2024. US-Iraq negotiations on force drawdown. Kurdish independence aspirations complicated by Arab-Kurd tensions in disputed territories. Iran's influence over PMF effectively makes portions of Iraq de facto Iranian sphere.

De facto partition: GNU controls west (Tripoli), LNA controls east (Benghazi + oil crescent). Ceasefire holding fragily. Oil revenue split/contested. Russia uses Libya as hub for Wagner/Africa Corps African operations. Turkey maintains military presence. No electoral or political unification process. Mercenaries from both sides remaining post-ceasefire.

Active tension at North Kosovo where ethnic Serbs refuse Kosovo institutions. KFOR reinforced after Banjska. Kosovo applications to international bodies (UNESCO, Interpol, CoE) blocked by Serbian-aligned votes. Serbia-Kosovo EU-mediated dialogue stalled. Crisis Group highlighted Kosovo as watch list item for EU autumn 2025.

Nagorno-Karabakh resolved by Azerbaijani conquest. Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty negotiations ongoing. Armenia-Russia relations in crisis: Pashinyan suspended CSTO participation, seeking EU partnership, applied for ICC membership. Remaining border demarcation disputes. Peace treaty not signed.

Post-ceasefire (Nov 27 2024). Nominal ceasefire in place but Israel conducting near-daily strikes (669 in year one). IDF retains 5 hilltop positions in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah observing ceasefire with minor exceptions. Lebanon's new government attempting to leverage ceasefire into permanent disarmament framework. Israel has stated it will resume full military operations if Hezbollah reconstitutes to pre-2023 capability levels.

DPRK tested ICBM capable of reaching US mainland. Trash balloons, GPS jamming ongoing provocations. Yoon impeachment/removal created South Korean political instability. DPRK troops in Ukraine represent new paradigm. Kim abandoned reunification rhetoric — two-state permanence framework. No diplomatic engagement pathway visible. Kim Jong-un nuclear doctrine more aggressive.

Escalating. China-Philippines confrontations weekly at Second Thomas Shoal. Philippines publicizing incidents — changed from Duterte era suppression. ACLED elevated South China Sea from Tier II to Tier I conflict risk for 2025. US-Philippines military exercises at historic highs. Vietnam quietly building up features. Risk of accidental escalation — Philippines personnel casualties would trigger MDT consideration.

Frozen since 2008. Russian troops at Administrative Boundary Line. Georgian Dream government 2024-2025 crisis: disputed elections, EU accession suspended, massive protests. Russia benefiting from Georgia's political instability. EU monitoring mission (EUMM) only international presence — not permitted into breakaway territories.

Russia cut gas transit to Transnistria Jan 2025 when Ukraine stopped gas transit deal. Transnistrian economy under stress. Moldova EU accession process active. Transnistrian authorities in dialogue with Chisinau for first time in years due to economic pressure. Potential unfreezing toward Moldova reintegration OR Russian military escalation.

Low-level Polisario attacks on Moroccan positions. Ceasefire effectively ended 2020. UN special envoy attempting to restart negotiations. Morocco's normalization with Israel (Abraham Accords) exchanged for US sovereignty recognition — changed diplomatic landscape fundamentally. Algeria-Morocco relations at historic low; borders closed.

PRC military pressure intensifying: regular carrier group exercises around Taiwan, median line eliminated as de facto boundary, increasing ADIZ incursions. Trump administration stance on Taiwan ambiguous — suggested Taiwan should pay for defense. CFR: China-Taiwan Tier I conflict risk with 50%+ chance of crisis in 2026. TSMC semiconductor dependency gives Taiwan economic leverage but also makes it a target.