Bahrain
Military
PF Score
40
Authority × 0.6 + Reach × 0.4
Authority Score
48
Capacity to coerce
Reach Score
28
Influence projection
Score Trajectory
Bahrain is a small, consolidated petrostate ruled by the Al Khalifa family with strong internal security backed by Saudi Arabia — the 2011 intervention demonstrated both the regime's fragility without…
Bahrain sits structurally below Saudi Arabia (Authority 58, Reach 52) and above Venezuela (Authority 38, Reach 22) — a small, consolidated monarchical rentier state with meaningful domestic security a…
Score Reasoning
Bahrain sits structurally below Saudi Arabia (Authority 58, Reach 52) and above Venezuela (Authority 38, Reach 22) — a small, consolidated monarchical rentier state with meaningful domestic security apparatus but significant Shia majority governance tensions that prevent a higher Authority score; calibrated near Pakistan (Authority 52) given comparable internal contestation dynamics but smaller state capacity. Reach is constrained hard by the Saudi patron ceiling (52) and Bahrain's near-total strategic dependency on Riyadh and the U.S. Fifth Fleet presence — without independent proxy networks, economic leverage, or diplomatic weight, external influence is minimal and reactive, placing it well below UAE (Reach 48) and closer to the lower peer range. With no linked events or case studies to shift the baseline, scores rest on structural fundamentals: a contested but functional domestic authority and externally negligible independent reach.