Belarus
PF Score
34
Authority × 0.6 + Reach × 0.4
Authority Score
44
Capacity to coerce
Reach Score
18
Influence projection
Score Trajectory
Belarus under Lukashenko retains nominal domestic control — security services remain loyal and internal opposition has been crushed since 2020 — but the Russian integration campaign has hollowed out m…
Score Reasoning
Belarus sits structurally below Venezuela (Authority 38, Reach 22) on sovereign autonomy grounds but above it on domestic coercive control — Lukashenko's regime maintains consolidated personal and security apparatus grip internally, but the Russia Multi-Domain Integration Assessment confirms that military command, fiscal policy, and foreign orientation are now substantially subordinated to Moscow, placing real Authority in the contested 40-59 range rather than the strong 60-79 band. Reach is scored near the floor: with no independent foreign policy, no proxy network, no multi-vector diplomacy, and Belarusian territory itself functioning as a Russian operational platform, Belarus projects negligible autonomous external influence — its apparent reach is actually Russian reach transiting Belarusian geography, warranting a score below Venezuela's 22 and approaching the Houthi floor without quite reaching it. Calibrated between the Yemen floor (Authority 12, Reach 8) and Venezuela (Authority 38, Reach 22) on the low end, with Pakistan (Authority 52, Reach 38) serving as the upper bound neither sub-score should approach given the depth of Russian integration.
Recent Events
Russia Multi-Domain Integration Campaign in Belarus: 2020–2024 Milestone Assessment
Jan 2025Between 2020 and 2024, Russia achieved decisive and compounding integration milestones across military, economic, and political domains in Belarus, transforming a nominally sovereign aligned state into an operational extension of the Russian Federation. Military gains include permanent air and air defense deployments, Russian General Staff control over Belarusian integrated air defense, tactical nuclear weapons deployment following coerced constitutional amendments, and use of Belarusian territory for both the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and post-mobilization force generation. Economic integration has advanced through sanctions evasion conduit exploitation, defense industrial base subsumption, and legal harmonization designed to eliminate independent Belarusian fiscal and monetary policy. Political integration has eliminated Belarus' multi-vector foreign policy, reoriented Minsk to formally designate NATO as a strategic adversary, and is advancing supranational Union State institutions designed to subordinate Belarusian governance to Kremlin-dominated federal structures. These gains are assessed as largely irreversible under current trends and independent of Ukraine war outcomes.