Lebanon's state is being written out of its own south. Israel holds territory, Hezbollah refuses to disarm, and Gulf rebuilding money stays locked behind that deadlock.

Authority

Parliament traded pardons between sects while the army cannot enter the south.

Reach

Beirut has no say in the occupation or the disarmament talks shaping it.

Power Profile

Grip at Home: 20 out of 100
Weight: 37 out of 100
Regard: 56 out of 100
Outward Power: 18 out of 100
Growth: 13 out of 100

Dependency Quadrant

Lebanon relies hardest on Israel and UAE.

1Dependents8Exposures

Top 9 Snapshots3to72

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Active Conflicts

Gaza WarEscalating

Middle EastProxy War

Iran-Saudi Arabia Proxy StruggleEscalating

Middle EastProxy War

Lebanon Parallel State CrisisWar

Middle EastCivil War

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Strategic Profile

Authority

Authority footing

Fragile Institutions

Reach

Economic scale

$20B

Limited Economy

Vulnerability

Defense spending trend

113%

Rearming

Mobilization mode

Electoral autocracy

Fiscal capacity

Low Capacity

-1

Government effectiveness

Weak Governance

Logistics capacity

Working Logistics

Trade openness

Open Trade

104%

Population base

Mid Population

Capital openness

Open Capital

Debt service pressure

High Exposure

21%

Defense burden

Heavy Burden

Energy position

Import Reliant

97%

Defense spending / person

Mid Priority

$142

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PF Score