Lebanon

Since October 2023, Hezbollah has absorbed cascading blows that have structurally degraded its military, financial, intelligence, and political standing. Israeli operations killed or wounded over 18,000 fighters including senior leadership, destroyed roughly 80 percent of its rocket arsenal, and penetrated its intelligence networks via the pager detonation campaign. The fall of the Assad regime severed Hezbollah's primary weapons transit corridor and eliminated a decades-long patron. Iran, Hezbollah's principal financial backer providing approximately $700 million annually, is itself under severe economic and military pressure, reducing its capacity to sustain proxy funding. Domestically, the Lebanese armed forces have deployed to southern Lebanon and taken control of Beirut's airport — moves previously inconceivable — signaling a measurable erosion of Hezbollah's parallel governance capacity.

Hezbollah launched multiple missiles from Lebanese territory toward northern Israel in retaliation for prior U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This action represents a significant escalation that expands the conflict beyond Israel-Iran to involve Lebanon as an active theater. Israel immediately responded with retaliatory airstrikes against Hezbollah positions throughout Lebanon, including in Beirut. The escalation threatens Lebanon's stability and formal state sovereignty, as the Lebanese government opposed the action and faces pressure from Israeli military response. While Hezbollah remains degraded from prior Israeli strikes, the group's decision to open a new front demonstrates Iran's continued capacity to project power through its regional proxy network.