Venezuela
PF Score
16
Authority × 0.6 + Reach × 0.4
Authority Score
22
Capacity to coerce
Reach Score
8
Influence projection
Score Trajectory
Venezuela under Maduro maintains nominal state control but exercises highly contested authority — significant opposition structures, economic collapse, and parallel power networks (colectivos, FAES) s…
Venezuela sits structurally below Pakistan (Authority 52, Reach 38) and above the Hamas floor (Authority 18, Reach 12) — Maduro's regime maintains consolidated personal and military control over the s…
Post-Maduro interim government under Rodríguez documented as lacking territorial control over southern mineral frontier controlled by armed groups. U.S. has de facto control over oil exports. Recent i…
The U.S. military extraction of Maduro and establishment of a de facto protectorate under Rodríguez collapses Venezuela's Authority score to near-failed-state territory — the sitting government exists…
Score Reasoning
The January 2026 U.S. military extraction of Maduro is a catastrophic Authority collapse event — Venezuela's head of state was physically removed by a foreign power, the government now operates under de facto U.S. receivership with acting President Rodríguez holding power at Washington's sufferance, placing Authority firmly in the 20-39 fragmented range near the Hamas post-Oct 7 floor rather than the state baseline. Reach collapses to near-floor: Venezuela's prior external influence was largely derivative of Maduro's ALBA/anti-U.S. alignment network and its oil diplomacy with Russia, China, and Iran — all of which are structurally severed or nullified under U.S. protectorate conditions, with the Cuba event confirming that Venezuela's regional bloc partners are themselves in crisis and unable to project solidarity. The U.S. leverage score of 98 over Venezuela and dependency of 85 confirms this actor is functionally subordinate, placing it below Afghanistan Taliban on Reach (who at least exercises autonomous territorial control) and near the Houthi floor on effective external influence.
Recent Events
Cuba-US Diplomatic Talks Confirmed Amid Energy Collapse
Mar 2026Cuban President Díaz-Canel publicly acknowledged ongoing negotiations with the Trump administration, marking a rare admission of direct bilateral engagement under crisis conditions. Cuba has imported no oil for three months, driving grid instability and civilian power outages of 13–15 hours daily, and the black market has become the primary fuel distribution mechanism. Trump publicly framed Cuba as a depleted, subordinate actor — linking its fate to Venezuela regime change — signaling Washington views Havana as operating from a position of extreme vulnerability. Cuba offered 51 prisoner releases and FBI access as apparent goodwill gestures, suggesting it is making asymmetric concessions to sustain dialogue. The structural imbalance between the two parties' negotiating positions indicates Washington holds overwhelming leverage while Havana's capacity to resist or delay is rapidly eroding.
U.S. Military Extraction of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela
Jan 2026U.S. forces physically removed Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from Caracas, ending his tenure through direct military intervention rather than diplomatic or electoral pressure. The action followed the collapse of regional mediation efforts after the fraudulent July 2024 election, during which Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, and the United States failed to apply meaningful pressure on Maduro. The intervention establishes a de facto U.S. protectorate over Venezuela under acting President Delcy Rodríguez, with Venezuelan oil and resources effectively under U.S. receivership. The event signals a shift in Trump's 'Americas First' posture toward active enforcement of hemispheric dominance, with Venezuela serving as a precedent for potential future interventions. Latin America's inability to coordinate a regional response both precipitated the intervention and leaves the region structurally exposed to further unilateral U.S. action.