Assessments

Ukraine

The Upper Hand It Cannot Afford

June 2026

The Read

Ukraine dictates more of its own war than at any time since 2022, and pays for almost none of it. Its drones reach deep into Russia while its survival runs on a patron base it rebuilds mid-fight.

Ukraine's drones have erased Russia's home-front sanctuary, hitting St. Petersburg twice in four days and forcing Moscow to pull air defenses back to guard itself.

Kyiv is quietly turning four years of combat into an export business, selling battle-tested drone and air-defense know-how to the Gulf, Taiwan, and Seoul even as it leans on the West for the interceptors that keep its cities standing.

The war's arsenal is changing hands mid-fight, with Washington stepping back and Europe stepping in, the kind of supplier handoff that decided Britain's survival before Lend-Lease.

Ukraine has crossed from absorbing the war to shaping it. Its drones struck deep inside Russia twice in a week, Europe opened a negotiating track as Washington's mediation collapsed, and the bloc agreed unanimously to begin membership talks. Russia's advance has stalled, and its elite has begun openly debating whether to quit.

LAST 30 DAYS

51

43

Δ -8

  1. MAY 15Fri

    Middle Corridor Unified Transit Documentation Agreement Signed in Astana

  2. MAY 21Thu

    U.S. Pauses Hormuz Shipping Mission Amid Iran Nuclear Negotiations

  3. MAY 26Tue

    Russia MoD Publishes European Drone Supplier Addresses as Coercive Warning

  4. JUN 01Mon

    Ukraine Expands Drone Strikes Against Russian Logistics in Southern Ukraine

  5. JUN 04Thu

    EU Member States Unanimously Agree to Open First Accession Cluster Talks with Ukraine

Plus content

The deeper assessment read opens with Plus.

Upgrade to unlock the full analysis, period review, indicators, outlook, and supporting receipts behind this assessment.

Sources

  • Ukraine at an inflection point on deep strikes and ceasefire (Council on Foreign Relations)
  • Ukraine's drone strikes exposing Putin's vulnerability (Atlantic Council)
  • Zelensky meeting European leaders on peace talks in London (New York Times)
  • Italy's call for a European defense alliance beyond U.S. reliance (New York Times)
  • Ukraine's military ombudsman and abuses in the ranks (New York Times)