Vilnius gains marginal weight as NATO stands up a German tank brigade on its soil and pares Moscow's regional reach, even as US drawdown clouds the eastern flank.

PF Score

Authority

Reach

Lithuania·34

Migration
Trajectory
Profile
Dependencies
Relationships
Situation
Analysis
Activity
Footing

WarmingCoolingStable

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Score Trajectory

PF Score

Overall

34▲1

Vilnius gains marginal weight as NATO stands up a German tank brigade on its soil and pares Moscow's regional reach, even as US drawdown clouds the eastern flank.

Authority

Internal cohesion stays firm under heightened frontline pressure from Russia.

Reach

Footprint inches up as allied forces concentrate and Kremlin influence channels narrow.

Power Profile

Grip at Home: 40 out of 100
Weight: 39 out of 100
Regard: 52 out of 100
Outward Power: 29 out of 100
Growth: 65 out of 100

Dependency Quadrant

Mixed posture: 2 dependents, 2 exposures.

2Dependents2Exposures

Top 4 Snapshots3to10

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Active Conflicts

Russia-NATO ConfrontationConflict

EurasiaProxy War

NATO Eastern Flank Hybrid WarConflict

EuropeProxy War

Assessments

Conflict assessments

June 2026

Russia-NATO Confrontation: A Harder Wall on Softer Ground

June 2026

NATO Eastern Flank Hybrid War: The war beneath the threshold

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Strategic Profile

Authority

Authority footing

Strong Institutions

Reach

Economic scale

$85B

Large Economy

Vulnerability

Defense spending / person

$1K

High Priority

Mobilization mode

Liberal democracy

Fiscal capacity

High Capacity

Government effectiveness

Effective Governance

Logistics capacity

Strong Logistics

Trade openness

Open Trade

143%

Population base

Smaller Population

Capital openness

Open Capital

Energy position

Import Reliant

71%

Defense burden

Heavy Burden

Remittance exposure

Moderate Exposure

Defense spending trend

Rearming

33%

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