A squeezed buffer state with thinning room to maneuver, the new Shah government takes flak from Beijing and a rebuff from New Delhi while a youth revolt that toppled the old order leaves Kathmandu unsettled.

PF Score

Authority

Reach

Nepal·14

Migration
Trajectory
Profile
Dependencies
Relationships
Activity
Footing

WarmingCoolingStable

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Score Trajectory

PF Score

Overall

14▼2

Authority

Fragile internal grip after the protest wave unseated the incumbent and split the coalition.

Reach

Outside leverage narrows as India funnels ties past the prime minister and China presses.

Power Profile

Grip at Home: 28 out of 100
Weight: 48 out of 100
Regard: 50 out of 100
Outward Power: 7 out of 100
Growth: 69 out of 100

Dependency Quadrant

Mixed posture: 0 dependents, 2 exposures.

0Dependents2Exposures

Top 2 Snapshots7to8

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Strategic Profile

Authority

Authority footing

Weak Institutions

Reach

Population base

30M

Large Population

Vulnerability

Energy position

27%

Import Exposed

Mobilization mode

Electoral democracy

Fiscal capacity

High Capacity

Government effectiveness

Weak Governance

Logistics capacity

Basic Logistics

Trade openness

Closed Trade

41%

Economic scale

Mid Economy

$43B

Capital openness

Closed Capital

Defense burden

Light Burden

Defense spending / person

Low Priority

$14

Debt service pressure

Moderate Exposure

12%

Defense spending trend

Cooling

-10%

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