Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
Paramilitary
PF Score
37
Authority × 0.6 + Reach × 0.4
Authority Score
42
Capacity to coerce
Reach Score
30
Influence projection
Score Trajectory
The RSF controls substantial territory across Darfur and parts of Khartoum, exercises taxation and parallel governance functions, and has demonstrated sustained military capacity against the Sudanese …
Recent intel on Saudi-UAE fracture shows RSF maintaining operations while receiving competing Gulf support. UAE backing documented despite genocide assessment creating international pressure. RSF terr…
Score Reasoning
The RSF controls substantial territory across Darfur and significant portions of greater Khartoum following multi-year military gains, placing its Authority above the non-state baseline (20) and above ISIS (22) and TTP (28), but below Sinaloa Cartel (42) given ongoing SAF resistance, documented atrocity exposure, and the unresolved El Fasher theater — scored at 38, just below Sinaloa and consistent with a force that holds ground through coercion rather than consolidated governance. On Reach, the RSF's external influence is structurally dependent on UAE patronage (ceiling: 56), but the November 2025 Gulf rift materially degrades that architecture — the Saudi-UAE fracture exposes the RSF to a hostile Saudi counter-pressure campaign and removes the coherent Gulf diplomatic shield that enabled operational impunity; the El Fasher ceasefire episode confirms the UAE's cover capacity is now publicly discredited, narrowing the RSF's diplomatic protection even as it retains material supply flows. Calibrated above Hamas post-Oct 7 (Authority 18, Reach 12) on both dimensions given territorial control and active patron, below Houthis on Reach parity given the Gulf rift signal, and comfortably beneath the UAE patron ceiling.
Recent Events
Trump Leaks MBS-MBZ Private Communication — Saudi-UAE Gulf Alliance Fractures Over Sudan Proxy War
Nov 2025In November 2025, President Trump called UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed to relay the contents of a private conversation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in which MBS had requested US pressure on the UAE over its support for Sudan's Rapid Support Forces. The disclosure — whether deliberate or careless — shattered the decade-long Saudi-UAE strategic partnership that had anchored Gulf regional politics, fueling what senior Emirati officials described as a fundamental betrayal. The fallout turned kinetic in December when an Emirati-backed Yemeni separatist group launched an offensive near the Saudi border; Saudi Arabia responded by bombing an Emirati military shipment to Yemen, after which the UAE withdrew its troops entirely. The rift exposes a structural fracture in Gulf proxy architecture: Saudi Arabia and the UAE, once aligned principals operating complementary proxy networks, are now operating competing and hostile patron relationships in Sudan and Yemen simultaneously. Trump's financial entanglements with both states — UAE-linked purchase of Trump crypto assets and Kushner's $55B Saudi SWF partnership — create a documented conflict of interest that compromises US leverage as potential mediator.
RSF Breaks Quad-Brokered Ceasefire Within 24 Hours of El Fasher Truce
Nov 2024The RSF accepted a humanitarian truce brokered by the U.S.-led Quad — comprising the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — following mass atrocities in El Fasher, including an attack on a maternity hospital that killed over 460 people. The ceasefire collapsed within 24 hours as RSF forces conducted drone strikes on a military base and power station in Khartoum. The breakdown exposes the structural contradiction of the UAE — a documented RSF financier and weapons supplier — serving simultaneously as a Quad mediator. El Fasher's fall would eliminate the last SAF stronghold in Darfur, representing a decisive territorial shift in RSF favor. The episode illustrates how mediation architecture can be captured by a conflict party to shield it from accountability while providing diplomatic cover.