War / Africa
Ethiopian Civil War
Pretoria is dead, Abiy holds a supermajority, and three simultaneous insurgencies now face an Eritrea-Egypt external axis.
The Sudan Civil War broke out in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group.
The two had jointly overthrown Sudan's civilian government in 2021, then fell out over how to merge their forces into a single military. Over 12 million people have been displaced, making it the world's largest displacement crisis. Outside powers fuel both sides: Egypt arms the SAF, the UAE arms the RSF.
The same two governments lead every ceasefire push.
The RSF is massing for an assault on El Obeid while the international community reproduces the same enforcement vacuum that preceded El Fasher.
The US State Department has warned explicitly of imminent mass atrocities, UN envoy Pekka Haavisto is in Washington seeking pressure, and congressional committees have advanced sanctions legislation targeting both sides' backers including the UAE.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
El Obeid's fall would be strategically decisive in a way El Fasher was not: the city controls the Darfur-east highway and the South Sudan oil pipeline corridor.
The RSF's Nyala parallel government, rival cabinet, Security and Defense Council, and currency plans mark a structural inflection from militia to proto-state competitor; the conflict is now a partition war.
The UN's confirmation of over 1,000 civilian drone deaths between January and May 2026 cements drone warfare as the conflict's dominant atrocity vector; post-Ukraine diffusion of operators, surplus munitions.
The SAF launched a major offensive and recaptured Khartoum in March, marking the most significant territorial shift of the war, though the RSF retained control of Darfur and fighting continued nationwide.
The UN declared Sudan home to the world's largest displacement crisis, with over 10 million people internally displaced and famine conditions emerging across multiple states as both sides blockaded humanitarian aid.
Disputes over the terms and timeline of RSF integration into the SAF erupted into open warfare in April, with fighting breaking out simultaneously in Khartoum and Darfur and rapidly spreading across the country.
The RSF seized large swaths of Khartoum and established dominance over Darfur, controlling roughly 25% of Sudanese territory while committing mass atrocities against civilians, particularly targeting non-Arab communities in Darfur.
SAF General al-Burhan led a military coup in October, dissolving the transitional government and leaving the SAF and RSF jointly in control, while negotiations over merging the RSF into the national army stalled and tensions mounted.
A popular uprising toppled Bashir after 30 years in power, and a fragile power-sharing transitional government was established between civilian leaders and the military, including both SAF General al-Burhan and Hemedti.
Bashir formally institutionalized the Janjaweed as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) under Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo ("Hemedti"), creating a parallel military that would grow wealthy through control of Sudan's gold mines.
The Janjaweed, Arab militias backed by President Omar al-Bashir's government, carried out a genocidal campaign in Darfur that killed over 300,000 people and displaced millions, laying the groundwork for the RSF's later formation.
UAE finances RSF parallel governance structures, procurement networks, and territorial administration across western Sudan.
Libya's LNA under Haftar facilitates RSF weapons and supply transit through eastern Libyan border corridors.
Africa Corps, the Wagner Group successor, facilitates UAE weapons transfers to the RSF through Central African Republic logistics nodes and provides advisory.
Egypt provides weapons, air support, and reportedly strikes RSF supply routes in direct support of the SAF.
Turkey supplies Bayraktar TB2 drones to the SAF, extending SAF strike reach and contributing to the drone-attrition dynamic that killed over 1,000 civilians.
PRO-RSF
Jun 22, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Warns of Imminent Mass Atrocities as RSF Masses Near El Obeid
The US State Department warns that RSF forces massing near El Obeid could commit mass atrocities if the city falls, repeating the genocide-marked assault on El Fasher.
Jun 15, 2026
Stable
Military
UN Reports Over 1,000 Civilians Killed by Drone Strikes in Sudan in Early 2026
The UN human rights chief documented over 1,000 civilian deaths from drone strikes in Sudan between January and May 2026, marking a sharp escalation in drone warfare by both the military and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces.
Jun 1, 2026
Escalating
Political
Prosperity Party Wins Supermajority in Ethiopia's 2026 Election
Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party secured a supermajority in Ethiopia's June 1 election, removing legislative checks and clearing the way for continued market reform and centralization of the ethnic-federal system.
Apr 23, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Turkey-Europe Defense Industrial Integration Accelerates Through Bilateral Deals
A series of bilateral defense-industrial agreements between Turkey and European states — including the Baykar-Leonardo joint venture, UK Eurofighter sales, and Airbus-Turkish Aerospace Industries training aircraft deal — has materially deepened Turkey's integration into European defense supply chains without a formal EU-Turkey strategic framework.
Apr 20, 2026
Mixed
Sanctions
Egypt Scales Land Monetization Program via Gulf and Chinese Investment Partnerships
Egypt has institutionalized a land monetization model in which state-owned land is contributed as equity to large-scale development projects financed by Gulf sovereign wealth funds and Chinese state-backed capital, bypassing traditional debt instruments.
Apr 19, 2026
Escalating
Military
RSF Retreat from Khartoum to Darfur Strongholds
The reported fallback of the Rapid Support Forces from Khartoum to Darfur indicates a failed attempt by Hemeti to convert paramilitary reach into durable control over Sudan's central state institutions.
Apr 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Sudan War Entrenches De Facto Territorial Partition
By the war's fourth year, Sudan is described as effectively split between SAF control in the east and RSF control in the west.
Apr 15, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Saudi Arabia Withdraws Financing for Pakistan-Sudan Arms Deal
Saudi Arabia withdrew financing for a proposed $1.5 billion Pakistan-Sudan arms deal and urged Islamabad to terminate it, collapsing Pakistan's intended gateway into African security markets.
Apr 15, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Sudan Civil War Enters Fourth Year Amid Mass Humanitarian Collapse
The Sudan war reached its fourth year with no effective national authority able to reestablish monopoly control over territory or civilian protection.
Apr 15, 2026
Stable
Institutional
Sudan Transitional Justice Planning Push During Civil War
The article advances an early transitional justice agenda for Sudan while the civil war continues, arguing that accountability, victim participation, and institutional reform must be built into ceasefire and peace negotiations rather than deferred.
Apr 11, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Gen Z-Led Anti-Elite Protest Wave in African Multiparty States
A cross-country wave of youth-led, digitally mobilized protests is challenging entrenched political elites in African multiparty systems.
Apr 9, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Kenya Renews Diplomatic Push for Nairobi Embassy Bombing Compensation
Kenyan survivors of the 1998 US embassy bombing are renewing efforts to obtain compensation after a Nairobi High Court setback, while Kenyan senators continue lobbying Washington to amend US terrorism compensation rules.
Apr 9, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Sudan's Civil War Hardens Into De Facto Partition
The Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces have consolidated rival territorial zones, administrative structures, and economic systems, creating a de facto partition without formal recognition.
Apr 3, 2026
Mixed
Military
Ukraine Establishes Covert Military Foothold in Western Libya
Reporting indicates Ukraine has deployed personnel to western Libya in coordination with the Tripoli-based government, gaining access to bases in Misrata and near Mellitah for drone operations.
Apr 2, 2026
Escalating
Military
RSF Drone Strike on Al-Jabalain Hospital, White Nile Province
The RSF launched two drone strikes on Al-Jabalain Hospital in White Nile province, destroying an operating theatre and maternity ward, killing 10 people including seven medical staff and wounding 19.
Apr 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Berlin Conference on Sudan Fails to Disrupt External Arms Pipelines
The April 2026 Berlin Conference produced €1.5 billion in humanitarian pledges and the Berlin Principles — the most explicit multilateral call yet for external backers to halt support to the SAF and RSF — but stopped short of naming those backers, imposing enforcement mechanisms, or recommending disruption of arms pipelines.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Other
MSF Documents Systematic RSF Sexual Violence Campaign in Darfur
MSF released a comprehensive report documenting widespread and systematic sexual violence by RSF and allied militias across North and South Darfur, with 3,396 survivors treated in MSF facilities between January 2024 and November 2025.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Conflict-Driven Internal Displacement Reaches Record High in 2025
Conflict and violence generated 32.3 million internal displacements globally in 2025 — a 60% increase over 2024 and the first time conflict-driven displacement has exceeded disaster-driven displacement since IDMC tracking began in 2008.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
United States Adopts Consolidation Strategy in 2025-2026 Security Doctrine
The article describes a strategic reorientation in U.S. national security doctrine under the second Trump administration, centered on narrowing the gap between U.S. commitments and available power.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Sudan War Exposes Western Diplomatic Capacity Erosion
The article assesses the Sudan war as evidence that Western states lack effective leverage over the SAF and RSF despite mass atrocities and regional spillover risks.
Dec 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Atlantic Council Workshop on US-China Tech Competition in Africa
A private Atlantic Council workshop convened US policymakers, industry leaders, and African stakeholders to assess the structural state of US-China technology competition across African markets.
Oct 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
IMO Net-Zero Framework Vote Postponed Under US-Gulf Pressure
The IMO's Extraordinary Session failed to adopt the Net-Zero Framework for shipping decarbonisation after the US and Saudi Arabia applied direct coercive pressure — including threats of sanctions and trade reprisals — on member states, including African delegations.
Jul 15, 2025
De-escalating
Alliance
UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC
The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC, effective Friday, citing unfair quota allocations that have constrained its crude export capacity.
Jul 14, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Garcia Installed as US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs
Frank Garcia, a political appointee with no prior diplomatic experience, assumes leadership of US Africa policy at a moment when the State Department's Africa bureau has been significantly hollowed out under the Trump administration.
Jul 14, 2025
Mixed
Sanctions
US Congress Advances Africa Aid Conditionality Bill Amid Defence Budget Expansion
The House Appropriations subcommittee advanced an NSRP bill allocating ~$47bn in foreign affairs discretionary spending — significantly above Trump's $35.6bn request but embedding country-specific conditionalities on Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan, South Sudan, and DRC-Rwanda.
Jul 7, 2025
Mixed
Alliance
UAE Withdraws from OPEC, Formalizing Saudi-Emirati Strategic Rift
The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC effective May, signaling a structural break from Saudi Arabia's dominant role in managing global oil production.
Jul 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Sudan Civil War Internationalisation and Proxy Escalation
Sudan's three-year civil war has expanded beyond its original Khartoum-Darfur axis into a multi-actor proxy conflict involving Egypt, Ethiopia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia, and the United States.
Jul 1, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
RSF Establishes Sudan Founding Alliance Rival Government in Darfur
The RSF established the Sudan Founding Alliance (Tasis) government in July 2025, based in Nyala, South Darfur, claiming to represent all Sudanese peoples and directly challenging the SAF-backed Transitional Sovereignty Council in Khartoum.
Jun 29, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Turkey Convenes Middle-Power Coordination at Antalya Diplomacy Forum
Turkey used the Antalya Diplomacy Forum to advance a regionalist response to perceived U.S. unreliability, urging neighboring states to manage security and political crises with less dependence on Washington.
Jun 27, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Ethiopian Federal Drone Strike on TPLF Positions Near Sheraro
Ethiopian federal forces allegedly conducted a drone strike on TPLF Army 13 positions in Gemehalo and Tekemati localities near Sheraro, approximately six kilometers from the Eritrean border.
Jun 18, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Senate Advances Tanzania Sanctions and Aid Conditionality Legislation
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee is scheduled to mark up the 'Reassessing the United States-Tanzania Bilateral Relationship Act', a bipartisan bill co-sponsored by Senators Shaheen and Cruz.
Jun 10, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
US Congress Advances Foreign Service Modernization Act and Sudan Sanctions Legislation
The House Foreign Affairs Committee marked up the Foreign Service Modernization Act, targeting the depleted Bureau of African Affairs with expedited hiring authority, critical minerals training mandates, and language preservation requirements.
Jun 5, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
BRICS Foreign Ministers Summit Convenes in New Delhi Under India's Chairship
India hosted the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting as 2025 chair, convening a bloc now expanded to ten members whose internal rivalries — Iran vs. UAE, Egypt vs. Ethiopia, Iran vs.
Jun 4, 2025
Escalating
Military
MSF Documents Systematic RSF Sexual Violence in Darfur
MSF released its most comprehensive report on sexual violence in Sudan's civil war, documenting 3,396 cases across North and South Darfur from January 2024 to November 2025.
Jun 2, 2025
Mixed
Political
Ethiopia Federal Election Under Multi-Front Conflict Conditions
Ethiopia held federal elections on June 2, 2025, with Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party projected to win a second five-year term in a landslide.
Jun 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Turkey-Bangladesh Defense Partnership Institutionalization via Fidan Visit
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan's three-day visit to Dhaka formalized a decade-long defense relationship by establishing ministerial-level joint committees on defense and foreign affairs and institutionalizing annual '2+2' consultations.
May 20, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
UAE Withdraws from OPEC and OPEC+
The UAE announced its formal exit from OPEC and OPEC+, effective Friday, citing desire for unconstrained energy policy and diverging foreign policy from Saudi Arabia.
May 13, 2025
De-escalating
Military
UN Documents Drone Strikes as Primary Civilian Killer in Sudan Civil War
The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights documented 880 civilian deaths from drone strikes in Sudan between January and April 2025, representing over 80% of all civilian fatalities.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Sudan Accuses Ethiopia and UAE of Drone Attacks, Recalls Ambassador
Sudan's SAF-led government accused Ethiopia and the UAE of conducting drone strikes on Sudanese territory and recalled its ambassador to Addis Ababa, escalating the proxy dimension of the civil war.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
UAE Exits OPEC and OPEC+
The UAE formally withdrew from OPEC and the OPEC+ framework on May 1, 2025, ending its participation in the multilateral quota coordination mechanism.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
China Assumes UN Security Council Presidency with Africa-Focused Agenda
China assumed the rotating UN Security Council presidency for May 2025, with Permanent Representative Fu Cong announcing an agenda centered on revitalizing the international system, ending Middle East conflict, and supporting African stability and development.
Apr 28, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Ukraine Drone Diplomacy Campaign Across Middle East and Europe
Ukraine has signed a series of defence and drone cooperation agreements with Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Turkey, Syria, and Azerbaijan within a compressed diplomatic window.
Apr 22, 2025
Mixed
Alliance
UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC
The UAE formally announced its exit from OPEC, effective next month, citing strategic misalignment with the cartel's quota regime and a desire to accelerate independent energy production.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Hormuz Shipping Disruption Transmits Fuel and Fertilizer Price Shocks to Horn of Africa
Commercial shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, attributed to the Iran War, have generated cascading fuel and fertilizer price shocks reaching the Horn of Africa.
Apr 20, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
US Arrests Alleged Iranian Arms Broker Linked to Sudan Drone Deal
US authorities arrested Shamim Mafi on allegations that she brokered Iranian weapons sales, including drones and ammunition, to African contacts and Sudan's ministry of defense.
Apr 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Sudan Civil War Enters Fourth Year Amid Humanitarian Collapse and External Patron Competition
Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has entered its fourth year, producing an estimated 100,000–150,000 direct casualties and displacing approximately 12 million people.
Apr 15, 2025
Stable
Diplomatic
Berlin Conference Opens Diplomatic Window on Sudan War
The article frames the Berlin conference on Sudan as a potential coordination point for external mediators and Sudanese civic actors amid worsening state collapse.
Apr 15, 2025
Mixed
Military
RSF-SPLM-N Joint Shelling of Dilling, South Kordofan
RSF paramilitaries and allied SPLM-N forces conducted a sustained artillery bombardment of residential areas in Dilling, capital of South Kordofan, killing at least 14 civilians including five children and wounding 23 more.
Apr 11, 2025
Mixed
Institutional
Libya Rival Authorities Agree First Unified Budget in Thirteen Years
Libya's eastern and western rival authorities signed a unified budget agreement on April 11, 2025 — the first in thirteen years — following CBL-led negotiations and sustained US diplomatic engagement.
Apr 11, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Libya Rival Administrations Approve First Unified Budget in Over a Decade
Libya's Tripoli-based Government of National Unity and the eastern Haftar-aligned administration agreed to a $30 billion unified development budget for fiscal year 2026, the first such agreement since 2014.
Apr 7, 2025
De-escalating
Other
UN Panel Documents Haftar Family Capture of Libya's Oil Sector and RSF Arms Pipeline
A leaked UN Panel of Experts report details how Saddam Haftar and affiliated armed groups have constructed a shadow decision-making structure inside Libya's National Oil Corporation, diverting over $3bn in oil revenues to offshore accounts via the private company Arkenu.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
MSF Documents RSF Systematic Sexual Violence Campaign in Darfur
MSF's medical data reveals a systematic campaign of sexual violence by RSF and allied militias across Darfur between January 2024 and November 2025, with at least 3,396 documented survivors representing a fraction of actual victims.
Mar 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Sudan Army Drone Strike on El-Daein Teaching Hospital
A drone strike destroyed el-Daein Teaching Hospital in East Darfur state, killing 64 people including medical personnel and children, and rendering the facility non-functional.
Mar 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Deadly Drone Strike on Tiné Escalates Sudan-Chad Border Crisis
A drone strike killed 20 civilians in Tiné, a Chadian border town, marking the fourth and most lethal cross-border incident originating from Sudan.
Feb 18, 2025
Escalating
Military
Russia's African Recruitment Pipeline Exposed via Kenyan Case Study
Russia has established a transnational recruitment pipeline drawing African nationals — particularly Kenyans — into its Ukraine war effort through deceptive labor migration schemes.
Jan 20, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Withdrawal from WHO and USAID Liquidation Amid Active Congo Ebola Outbreak
The Trump administration's dismantling of USAID, weakening of CDC international capacity, and January 2025 withdrawal from the WHO — the organization's largest historical funder — has removed the primary U.S. instruments for African public health engagement.
Jan 18, 2025
Escalating
Military
RSF Artillery Strike on Dilling City, South Kordofan
RSF paramilitary forces, operating alongside SPLM-N, conducted heavy artillery shelling on residential areas of Dilling city for two consecutive days.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Post-Cold War Order Structural Dissolution
The liberal international order built after 1991 is undergoing structural dissolution across multiple dimensions simultaneously: great power rivalry between the U.S. and China has intensified, Russia's war in Ukraine has fractured European security architecture, a U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran has triggered regional conflagration, and democratic backsliding is accelerating in states previously considered stable.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Policy Debate Over Ending Military Aid to Egypt
A bipartisan debate has emerged in the U.S. Congress over whether to end the $1.3 billion annual foreign military financing package to Egypt, a program running nearly four decades.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
Systemic U.S. Policy Subordination of Africa to Other Regional Priorities
A former Biden NSC senior director documents a structural pattern in which U.S. Africa policy has been repeatedly stripped of resources and decision-making space to satisfy European, Middle Eastern, and Indo-Pacific priorities.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Ethiopia-Sudan Diplomatic Rupture Over RSF Drone Attack Allegations
Sudan's SAF-aligned government accused Ethiopia of complicity in RSF drone attacks, triggering an unusually fierce Ethiopian rebuttal that has sharpened bilateral tensions to a qualitatively new level.
Jan 1, 2025
Mixed
Sanctions
Sudan Redirects Gold Exports Away from UAE Following Diplomatic Break
Following Sudan's formal severance of ties with the UAE in May 2024, gold exports to Abu Dhabi fell from 22.2 to 8.2 metric tons in 2025, with the UAE's share of total Sudanese gold exports dropping from 99% to 56%.
Nov 1, 2024
Mixed
Military
RSF Breaks Quad-Brokered Ceasefire Within 24 Hours of El Fasher Truce
The RSF accepted a humanitarian truce brokered by the U.S.-led Quad — comprising the United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — following mass atrocities in El Fasher, including an attack on a maternity hospital that killed over 460 people.
Oct 1, 2024
Escalating
Military
UAE-Backed Colombian Mercenary Network Confirmed in RSF Capture of El-Fasher
A UAE-facilitated network of Colombian mercenaries operating as the Desert Wolves brigade provided drone operations, artillery, and instruction that enabled the RSF's 18-month siege and eventual capture of el-Fasher in North Darfur.
Sep 24, 2024
De-escalating
Sanctions
Haftar-Linked Financial Network Exposed as Backbone of Eastern Libya Parallel Power Structure
The reported exposure of Ahmed Gadalla's role in financing Haftar's failed Tripoli offensive and consolidating influence over eastern Libyan banks highlights the durability of a parallel coercive-financial system outside formal state control.
Aug 1, 2024
Escalating
Political
RSF Declares Parallel Government in Nyala, Establishes Security and Defense Council
The RSF declared a parallel government headquartered in Nyala, Darfur, announced a cabinet, and subsequently created a Security and Defense Council designed to establish a rival national army.
Apr 15, 2023
Escalating
Military
UAE-Backed RSF Atrocities and U.S. Policy Accommodation in Sudan
Since the outbreak of Sudan's civil war in April 2023, the UAE has provided sustained military and logistical support to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), including weapons shipments via Chadian air bases, use of a continent-spanning network of Emirati airfields, and Wagner Group facilitation through the Central African Republic.
Apr 15, 2023
Escalating
Military
RSF Systematic Looting of Sudanese Museums for War Financing
The Rapid Support Forces have systematically looted museums across Sudan since the civil war's outbreak in April 2023, stealing an estimated $150 million in artifacts including gold, jewelry, and antiquities from the Kingdom of Kush and other ancient civilizations.
Apr 15, 2023
Mixed
Military
Sudan Civil War: RSF-SAF De Facto Partition Solidifies
Sudan's April 2023 war outbreak, triggered by a dispute over Merowe air base, has evolved into a structural partition between SAF-controlled central and eastern Sudan and RSF-controlled Darfur and the west.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
RSF Masses for Assault on El Obeid as International Response Stalls
The Rapid Support Forces and allies gather to assault El Obeid, drawing concern statements from the US, UN, and NGOs that mirror the inaction preceding the El Fasher massacre.
Date unknown
Stable
Alliance
NATO Ankara Summit Southern Neighborhood Engagement Push
Atlantic Council experts recommend NATO use the Ankara summit to institutionalize deeper engagement with its southern neighborhood, citing Iran-war missile and drone attacks on Turkey and a British base in Cyprus as evidence of southern-flank vulnerability.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
RSF Troop Build-up Around El Obeid Amid Sudan Envoy Washington Visit
The RSF is massing forces around El Obeid, capital of North Kordofan, raising fears of a massacre echoing last year's El Fasher assault, as UN envoy Pekka Haavisto visits Washington to enlist U.S. pressure.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Ethiopia Multi-Front Conflict Expansion
Ethiopia is transitioning from a contained civil war to a multi-front conflict as the Amhara Fano movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, and a collapsing Tigray settlement exert simultaneous pressure on overstretched federal forces reliant on drone strikes.
Date unknown
Mixed
Political
Ethiopia Election Results Amid Insurgency and Regional Strain
Ethiopia's election delivered a foregone-conclusion victory for Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party, held in a constrained political space where insecurity prevented voting in parts of the country.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Spread of Ukrainian Drone Technology to African Conflicts
Ukrainian drone manufacturing, modification know-how, and instructors are spreading to African states and armed groups, with emulation of first-person-view and fibre-optic tactics appearing in Mali, Sudan, and the DRC.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Forecast Post-Ukraine Arms and Mercenary Surplus Flowing to Africa
The analysis projects that the end of the Ukraine war will release stockpiled weapons, expert drone pilots, and demobilized fighters onto the global illicit market, with Africa absorbing a sizeable share and intensifying conflict there.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Collapse of Performative International Law Compliance Among Major Powers
The article diagnoses a structural inflection point in which the United States, Russia, and China have abandoned even the performative pretense of compliance with international law — a shift from strategic hypocrisy to open rejection.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Egypt-Eritrea Strategic Axis Consolidation Against Ethiopia Post-Pretoria
Since the 2022 Pretoria Agreement ending the Tigray war, Egypt and Eritrea have sustained a pattern of presidential-level diplomatic engagement — documented in 2024, 2025, and 2026 — reinforced by continuous ministerial exchanges and trilateral formats incorporating additional Horn and Red Sea actors.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Haftar-Affiliated Forces Accused of Organized Fuel Smuggling via Southern Libya
SLOR alleges that armed groups affiliated with Khalifa Haftar's Libyan National Army are operating organized fuel smuggling convoys from the Kalinga area through the Majdoul checkpoint toward Chad and onward into Sudan.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Peacekeeping Funding Cuts Accelerate African Security Architecture Fragmentation
The United States has accumulated US$1.8 billion in arrears to the UN peacekeeping budget, with a congressional subcommittee proposing a 60% reduction in future contributions.
Date unknown
Mixed
Political
Frank Garcia Confirmed as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs
After more than a year of vacancy, Frank Garcia was confirmed by the Senate as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, the most senior U.S. diplomatic post for the continent.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Sudanese Civilian Political Consultations Convene in Addis Ababa
Sudanese civic and political formations are scheduled to meet in Addis Ababa in early June 2025 under Quintet auspices, following earlier convergence-building engagements in Berlin and Nairobi.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
Quad-Led Sudan Ceasefire Framework Proposed
The Quad (United States, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE) is advancing a ceasefire framework for Sudan's civil war requiring the SAF and RSF to maintain current positions, disengage from active fighting, demilitarize contested cities including El Fasher, and create humanitarian corridors.
War / Africa
Pretoria is dead, Abiy holds a supermajority, and three simultaneous insurgencies now face an Eritrea-Egypt external axis.
War / Africa
Ethiopia's Pretoria ceasefire is collapsing as federal drone strikes, TPLF governance restoration, and Eritrea-Egypt proxy coordination converge.