Sudan Civil War

Egypt Scales Land Monetization Program via Gulf and Chinese Investment Partnerships

Egypt has institutionalized a land monetization model in which state-owned land is contributed as equity to large-scale development projects financed by Gulf sovereign wealth funds and Chinese state-backed capital, bypassing traditional debt instruments.

UAE Exits OPEC and OPEC+

The UAE formally withdrew from OPEC and the OPEC+ framework on May 1, 2025, ending its participation in the multilateral quota coordination mechanism. ADNOC had been producing roughly 30 percent below its installed capacity under quota constraints, representing billions in foregone monthly revenue.

Libya Rival Administrations Approve First Unified Budget in Over a Decade

Libya's Tripoli-based Government of National Unity and the eastern Haftar-aligned administration agreed to a $30 billion unified development budget for fiscal year 2026, the first such agreement since 2014.

IMO Net-Zero Framework Vote Postponed Under US-Gulf Pressure

The IMO's Extraordinary Session failed to adopt the Net-Zero Framework for shipping decarbonisation after the US and Saudi Arabia applied direct coercive pressure — including threats of sanctions and trade reprisals — on member states, including African delegations.

Russia's African Recruitment Pipeline Exposed via Kenyan Case Study

Russia has established a transnational recruitment pipeline drawing African nationals — particularly Kenyans — into its Ukraine war effort through deceptive labor migration schemes. Over 1,000 Kenyans have been recruited, with at least one confirmed killed in eastern Ukraine.

UAE Withdraws from OPEC, Formalizing Saudi-Emirati Strategic Rift

The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC effective May, signaling a structural break from Saudi Arabia's dominant role in managing global oil production.

Hormuz Shipping Disruption Transmits Fuel and Fertilizer Price Shocks to Horn of Africa

Commercial shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, attributed to the Iran War, have generated cascading fuel and fertilizer price shocks reaching the Horn of Africa.

China Assumes UN Security Council Presidency with Africa-Focused Agenda

China assumed the rotating UN Security Council presidency for May 2025, with Permanent Representative Fu Cong announcing an agenda centered on revitalizing the international system, ending Middle East conflict, and supporting African stability and development.

Atlantic Council Workshop on US-China Tech Competition in Africa

A private Atlantic Council workshop convened US policymakers, industry leaders, and African stakeholders to assess the structural state of US-China technology competition across African markets.

UAE Withdraws from OPEC and OPEC+

The UAE announced its formal exit from OPEC and OPEC+, effective Friday, citing desire for unconstrained energy policy and diverging foreign policy from Saudi Arabia. The UAE is one of OPEC's largest producers, and its departure reduces the cartel's collective output coordination capacity.

Ukraine Drone Diplomacy Campaign Across Middle East and Europe

Ukraine has signed a series of defence and drone cooperation agreements with Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Turkey, Syria, and Azerbaijan within a compressed diplomatic window.

UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC

The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC, effective Friday, citing unfair quota allocations that have constrained its crude export capacity.

UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC

The UAE formally announced its exit from OPEC, effective next month, citing strategic misalignment with the cartel's quota regime and a desire to accelerate independent energy production.

US Congress Advances Africa Aid Conditionality Bill Amid Defence Budget Expansion

The House Appropriations subcommittee advanced an NSRP bill allocating ~$47bn in foreign affairs discretionary spending — significantly above Trump's $35.6bn request but embedding country-specific conditionalities on Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan, South Sudan, and DRC-Rwanda.

Sudan Civil War Enters Fourth Year Amid Humanitarian Collapse and External Patron Competition

Sudan's civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has entered its fourth year, producing an estimated 100,000–150,000 direct casualties and displacing approximately 12 million people.

RSF Systematic Looting of Sudanese Museums for War Financing

The Rapid Support Forces have systematically looted museums across Sudan since the civil war's outbreak in April 2023, stealing an estimated $150 million in artifacts including gold, jewelry, and antiquities from the Kingdom of Kush and other ancient civilizations.

UAE-Backed Colombian Mercenary Network Confirmed in RSF Capture of El-Fasher

A UAE-facilitated network of Colombian mercenaries operating as the Desert Wolves brigade provided drone operations, artillery, and instruction that enabled the RSF's 18-month siege and eventual capture of el-Fasher in North Darfur.

United States Adopts Consolidation Strategy in 2025-2026 Security Doctrine

The article describes a strategic reorientation in U.S. national security doctrine under the second Trump administration, centered on narrowing the gap between U.S. commitments and available power.

Turkey Convenes Middle-Power Coordination at Antalya Diplomacy Forum

Turkey used the Antalya Diplomacy Forum to advance a regionalist response to perceived U.S. unreliability, urging neighboring states to manage security and political crises with less dependence on Washington.

US Arrests Alleged Iranian Arms Broker Linked to Sudan Drone Deal

US authorities arrested Shamim Mafi on allegations that she brokered Iranian weapons sales, including drones and ammunition, to African contacts and Sudan's ministry of defense.

RSF Retreat from Khartoum to Darfur Strongholds

The reported fallback of the Rapid Support Forces from Khartoum to Darfur indicates a failed attempt by Hemeti to convert paramilitary reach into durable control over Sudan's central state institutions.

Sudan War Entrenches De Facto Territorial Partition

By the war's fourth year, Sudan is described as effectively split between SAF control in the east and RSF control in the west. This indicates sustained failure of the Sudanese state to reassert unified territorial authority and confirms RSF durability as a parallel coercive center.

Sudan Civil War Enters Fourth Year Amid Mass Humanitarian Collapse

The Sudan war reached its fourth year with no effective national authority able to reestablish monopoly control over territory or civilian protection.

Sudan Transitional Justice Planning Push During Civil War

The article advances an early transitional justice agenda for Sudan while the civil war continues, arguing that accountability, victim participation, and institutional reform must be built into ceasefire and peace negotiations rather than deferred.

Berlin Conference Opens Diplomatic Window on Sudan War

The article frames the Berlin conference on Sudan as a potential coordination point for external mediators and Sudanese civic actors amid worsening state collapse.

Gen Z-Led Anti-Elite Protest Wave in African Multiparty States

A cross-country wave of youth-led, digitally mobilized protests is challenging entrenched political elites in African multiparty systems.

Kenya Renews Diplomatic Push for Nairobi Embassy Bombing Compensation

Kenyan survivors of the 1998 US embassy bombing are renewing efforts to obtain compensation after a Nairobi High Court setback, while Kenyan senators continue lobbying Washington to amend US terrorism compensation rules.

Sudan's Civil War Hardens Into De Facto Partition

The Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces have consolidated rival territorial zones, administrative structures, and economic systems, creating a de facto partition without formal recognition.

Haftar-Linked Financial Network Exposed as Backbone of Eastern Libya Parallel Power Structure

The reported exposure of Ahmed Gadalla's role in financing Haftar's failed Tripoli offensive and consolidating influence over eastern Libyan banks highlights the durability of a parallel coercive-financial system outside formal state control.

Sudan War Exposes Western Diplomatic Capacity Erosion

The article assesses the Sudan war as evidence that Western states lack effective leverage over the SAF and RSF despite mass atrocities and regional spillover risks.

Ukraine Establishes Covert Military Foothold in Western Libya

Reporting indicates Ukraine has deployed personnel to western Libya in coordination with the Tripoli-based government, gaining access to bases in Misrata and near Mellitah for drone operations.

Deadly Drone Strike on Tiné Escalates Sudan-Chad Border Crisis

A drone strike killed 20 civilians in Tiné, a Chadian border town, marking the fourth and most lethal cross-border incident originating from Sudan. No actor has claimed responsibility, with both the Sudanese Armed Forces and RSF denying involvement.

RSF Drone Strike on Al-Jabalain Hospital, White Nile Province

The RSF launched two drone strikes on Al-Jabalain Hospital in White Nile province, destroying an operating theatre and maternity ward, killing 10 people including seven medical staff and wounding 19.

Sudan Redirects Gold Exports Away from UAE Following Diplomatic Break

Following Sudan's formal severance of ties with the UAE in May 2024, gold exports to Abu Dhabi fell from 22.2 to 8.2 metric tons in 2025, with the UAE's share of total Sudanese gold exports dropping from 99% to 56%.

Sudan Civil War: RSF-SAF De Facto Partition Solidifies

Sudan's April 2023 war outbreak, triggered by a dispute over Merowe air base, has evolved into a structural partition between SAF-controlled central and eastern Sudan and RSF-controlled Darfur and the west.

RSF Establishes Sudan Founding Alliance Rival Government in Darfur

The RSF established the Sudan Founding Alliance (Tasis) government in July 2025, based in Nyala, South Darfur, claiming to represent all Sudanese peoples and directly challenging the SAF-backed Transitional Sovereignty Council in Khartoum.

MSF Documents Systematic RSF Sexual Violence Campaign in Darfur

MSF released a comprehensive report documenting widespread and systematic sexual violence by RSF and allied militias across North and South Darfur, with 3,396 survivors treated in MSF facilities between January 2024 and November 2025.

UN Panel Documents Haftar Family Capture of Libya's Oil Sector and RSF Arms Pipeline

A leaked UN Panel of Experts report details how Saddam Haftar and affiliated armed groups have constructed a shadow decision-making structure inside Libya's National Oil Corporation, diverting over $3bn in oil revenues to offshore accounts via the private company Arkenu.

MSF Documents Systematic RSF Sexual Violence in Darfur

MSF released its most comprehensive report on sexual violence in Sudan's civil war, documenting 3,396 cases across North and South Darfur from January 2024 to November 2025.

RSF Artillery Strike on Dilling City, South Kordofan

RSF paramilitary forces, operating alongside SPLM-N, conducted heavy artillery shelling on residential areas of Dilling city for two consecutive days. At least 14 civilians were killed and 23 wounded, with children comprising a significant share of casualties.

RSF-SPLM-N Joint Shelling of Dilling, South Kordofan

RSF paramilitaries and allied SPLM-N forces conducted a sustained artillery bombardment of residential areas in Dilling, capital of South Kordofan, killing at least 14 civilians including five children and wounding 23 more. The Sudanese Armed Forces claimed to have repelled the attack.