South Africa frays at home, anti-immigrant vigilante violence and a migrant-displacement crisis testing state authority as a deadline for undocumented migrants nears and the governing coalition strains.

PF Score

Authority

Reach

South Africa·43

Migration
Trajectory
Profile
Dependencies
Relationships
Situation
Activity
Footing

WarmingCoolingStable

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Score Trajectory

PF Score

Overall

43▼1

Authority

Internal grip weakens as vigilante violence challenges the state's writ.

Reach

Regional standing slips amid domestic instability and coalition strain.

Power Profile

Grip at Home: 47 out of 100
Weight: 63 out of 100
Regard: 56 out of 100
Outward Power: 40 out of 100
Growth: 53 out of 100

Dependency Quadrant

Mixed posture: 9 dependents, 6 exposures.

9Dependents6Exposures

Top 17 Snapshots3to15

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Active Conflicts

Zimbabwe DestabilizationSimmering

AfricaCivil War

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Strategic Profile

Authority

Authority footing

Mixed Footing

Reach

Economic scale

$401B

Global Scale

Vulnerability

Energy position

-13%

Net exporter

Mobilization mode

Electoral democracy

Fiscal capacity

High Capacity

Government effectiveness

Mixed Governance

Logistics capacity

Advanced Logistics

Trade openness

Closed Trade

62%

Population base

Large Population

64M

Capital openness

Closed Capital

Defense burden

Light Burden

Defense spending / person

Low Priority

$49

Debt service pressure

Moderate Exposure

16%

Defense spending trend

Cooling

-12%

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PF Score