War / Africa
Ethiopian Civil War
Federal drone strikes on Mekelle and a deadlocked multi-front insurgency push Ethiopia toward renewed full-scale war.
Pro-M23
Pro-DRC
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
War
Eastern Congo
The Eastern Congo War traces back to 1996, when Rwanda and Uganda invaded the Democratic Republic of Congo to hunt Hutu genocidaires who had fled across the border after Rwanda's 1994 genocide.
Two regional wars killed an estimated 5 million people by 2003. The fighting never ended. Today the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel movement controls Goma and large stretches of North Kivu, with Rwandan troops openly embedded in its ranks. Kinshasa fights back with Burundian soldiers, a Southern African regional force, and European mercenaries.
Beneath the war lies the world's richest deposits of cobalt, coltan, and tin, the metals that power every smartphone and electric vehicle on earth.
The Doha ceasefire framework's first verification mission deployed to Minembwe in late August, but the mechanism has no enforcement mandate and cannot verify the two variables that determine the conflict's trajectory: Rwandan force withdrawal and FDLR disarmament, which sit on a separate American-mediated track Rwanda controls.
It matters because the war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across Africa.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Rwanda's rejection of Kinshasa's FDLR demobilization protocol is the single chokepoint in the entire peace sequence: because Kigali controls whether its stated security precondition is ever satisfied.
AFC/M23 parallel governance is now self-reinforcing across courts, universities, and local administration.
The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak, which killed over 3,500 people before detection and is tracking to surpass the deadliest outbreak on record, is a compounding state-capacity failure.
MONUSCO completes its withdrawal from DRC after three decades of peacekeeping widely judged ineffective; a Southern African Development Community force deploys in its place but faces severe resource and mandate constraints.
M23 and Rwandan forces capture Goma, the economic capital of North Kivu and home to over one million people, marking the conflict's most significant territorial shift in over a decade.
A UN Group of Experts report confirms Rwanda Defence Forces are directly operating alongside M23; Rwanda uses the group to suppress the FDLR (Hutu genocidaires still active in eastern Congo) and extract revenue from Congolese mineral trade.
Rwanda-backed Tutsi rebels form M23, capture Goma briefly, then are defeated and dissolve; the group reconstitutes and relaunches its insurgency in 2022, rapidly seizing large areas of North Kivu.
Rwanda and Uganda back Laurent Kabila's rebel coalition to topple Mobutu Sese Seko, triggering the First Congo War and drawing nine African nations into what becomes known as Africa's World War; fighting across two wars from 1996–2003 kills an estimated 5–6 million people.
Rwanda's Hutu-led genocide kills an estimated 800,000 Tutsi; the Tutsi RPF seizes power under Paul Kagame, sending roughly 2 million Hutu refugees — including genocidaires — flooding into eastern Congo.
Belgian Congo gains independence, but central authority never consolidates over the vast eastern provinces, leaving them ungoverned and resource-rich.
PRO-M23
PRO-DRC
Aug 27, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Tshisekedi Announces National Dialogue Excluding AFC/M23
In a televised address, the Congolese president announced a national dialogue of at most three months, convened once a preparatory committee completes its work, with provincial consultations feeding national assizes in Kinshasa and a national pact for institutions to implement.
Aug 24, 2026
Stable
Alliance
First Verification Mission Deploys to South Kivu Under Doha Ceasefire Framework
The Expanded Joint Verification Mechanism Plus began its first mission in Minembwe, South Kivu, following August talks in Switzerland between the Congolese government and the AFC and M23 alliance mediated by Qatar, the United States and the African Union.
Aug 12, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Ituri Ebola Outbreak Outpaces Congolese State Response Capacity
The World Health Organization said on 12 August that the Ebola outbreak in eastern Congo, which has killed more than 2,000 people since May, is on track to surpass the deadliest outbreak on record.
Jul 29, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
Democratic Republic of the Congo Presents Draft Plan to Dissolve Rwandan Hutu Armed Group
The Congolese minister for regional integration announced at a Kinshasa press conference that months of behind-the-scenes work had secured the agreement of the Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda to a memorandum providing for demobilisation, disarmament and cantonment, aiming at definitive dissolution.
Jul 28, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Rwanda Rejects Congolese Disarmament Protocol for Rwandan Armed Group
Kinshasa announced a demobilisation protocol covering the armed group founded by former Rwandan genocidaires, and Kigali rejected the surrender terms, stalling the wider bilateral negotiation.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Legal
Angola Sentences Russian Influence Operatives for Espionage and Coup Plotting
A Luanda court sentenced Russians Lev Lakshtanov and Igor Ratchin to eight and eleven years for espionage and terrorism, accepting prosecution claims they prepared a coup, sought to seize national economic assets, and planned to finance the opposition Unita party ahead of the 2027 election, charges arising from the deadly July 2025 fuel-price riots that killed at least 22 people.
Jul 17, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
UN Security Council Sanctions Armed Group Leaders in Eastern Congo
The Security Council sanctioned leaders of eastern Congo's armed groups on both sides of the conflict: the Rwandan-backed AFC/M23 rebellion and the FDLR militia that fights alongside the Congolese army.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
US Ebola Travel Ban Strands Citizens and Offshores Quarantine to Kenya
The Trump administration issued a travel ban on July 13 barring entry to the United States for anyone who has traveled in the Democratic Republic of Congo during the Ebola outbreak, stranding hundreds of American citizens abroad.
Jul 10, 2026
De-escalating
Other
DRC Ebola Outbreak Infects US Aid Worker Amid Collapsed Surveillance
The CDC confirmed a US humanitarian worker contracted the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola in the DRC, where an outbreak has killed more than 600 of nearly 1,800 cases and spread to Uganda with 20 cases and two deaths.
Jul 10, 2026
De-escalating
Other
IRC Mid-Year Watch List Documents Collapsing Humanitarian Shock Absorbers
The International Rescue Committee released its mid-year emergency watch list update, titled around more shocks and fewer shock absorbers, while the World Bank launched a refreshed fragility strategy at its Fragility Forum.
Jul 6, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
AU Chair Ndayishimiye Opens Mediation with Congolese Opposition in Bujumbura
Burundian President Évariste Ndayishimiye, chairing the African Union, met Congolese opposition figures and church representatives on July 6, days after visiting Kinshasa.
Jul 4, 2026
Stable
Other
Rwanda Marks 32nd Liberation Day as Kagame's Rule Draws Scrutiny
Rwanda commemorated Liberation Day, thirty-two years after the Rwandan Patriotic Front ended the 1994 genocide that killed hundreds of thousands of mostly Tutsi victims.
Jul 3, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Western Financing Package Advances Lobito Corridor as China Takes Digital Layer
The US International Development Finance Corporation and the Development Bank of Southern Africa secured a 753 million dollar package on July 3 to rehabilitate the 1,300-kilometer Lobito Atlantic Railway, followed on July 10 by DRC approval of a Mota-Engil partnership to rebuild the line from the Angolan border to the copper and cobalt regions.
Jun 30, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Anti-Immigrant Deadline Drives Mass Migrant Departures From South Africa
Tens of thousands marched in Johannesburg and Durban on an unofficial deadline set by anti-immigrant vigilante groups for undocumented African migrants to leave South Africa, triggering mass departures and government-facilitated repatriations.
Jun 29, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Ethiopia Reaches Preliminary Deal to Restructure Defaulted $1 Billion Eurobond
Ethiopia announced a preliminary agreement with private bondholders to cut its defaulted $1 billion Eurobond by 12 percent to $880 million, repaid by 2029, after creditors threatened UK court action.
Jun 26, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Mass Migrant Displacement Crisis in South Africa
Anti-immigration activists issued a deadline demanding undocumented foreigners leave South Africa, triggering a spontaneous mass displacement of thousands of migrants — including legal refugees — who formed street camps around consulates and government offices.
Jun 25, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Sanctions Rwandan Gold Refinery Over Congo Conflict Minerals
On June 25 the US announced fresh sanctions on Rwanda, targeting the Gasabo gold refinery accused of profiting from minerals illicitly extracted in M23-controlled eastern Congo.
Jun 17, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Bundibugyo Ebola Outbreak in Eastern DRC Amid Armed-Group Insecurity
A Bundibugyo-species Ebola outbreak centered in Ituri and the Kivus is compounded by entrenched insecurity, where armed groups tied to multibillion-dollar illicit gold and mineral flows and Rwandan-backed M23 control of Goma obstruct the health response.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
South Africa-Rwanda Lift Trade and Travel Restrictions
Following a June 17 meeting in Pretoria between the Rwandan and South African foreign ministers, the two states formalized the lifting of trade and travel restrictions to normalize ties strained by last year's near-military conflict over M23.
Jun 16, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Ebola Outbreak in Eastern Congo Risks Becoming Worst on Record
African health officials warned the Ebola outbreak in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo could become the worst on record, with over 800 confirmed cases and nearly 200 deaths and the potential to last a year.
Jun 15, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
DRC Senate Adopts Constitutional Revision to Reset Presidential Term Limits
The DRC Senate adopted a constitutional revision bill that would reset presidential term limits, clearing a path for Tshisekedi to seek a third term via referendum on a new constitution.
Jun 15, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Global Surge in Attacks on Education in Conflict Zones
Attacks on education rose 40% over 2024-2025, with military occupation of schools nearly doubling and the highest casualties in Myanmar, Nigeria, Yemen, Cameroon, Palestine, and Ukraine.
May 6, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
Tshisekedi Cites US Partnership to Justify Third-Term Amendment
At a Kinshasa press conference on May 6, Tshisekedi presented a constitutional amendment enabling a third term as a condition of the US-DRC Strategic Partnership Agreement signed in December 2025, offering no evidence.
Apr 30, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
US Treasury Sanctions Joseph Kabila Over Alleged M23 Collaboration
The US Treasury designated former Congolese president Joseph Kabila on 30 April, accusing him of seeking to destabilise the Congolese government by collaborating with the CRA and M23 rebels who control large swathes of North and South Kivu.
Apr 20, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Gulf SWF Critical Minerals Positioning in DRC and Global Markets
The UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are deploying sovereign wealth capital into DRC and global critical minerals through structurally distinct vehicles: Abu Dhabi through deep integration with the US-led Orion Consortium and DFC co-investments; Qatar through simultaneous exposure to Chinese-linked Ivanhoe-Zijin joint ventures and Pax Silica membership; Saudi Arabia through bilateral government-to-government arrangements outside multilateral frameworks.
Apr 18, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
US Third-Country Deportation Network Expansion Across Africa
The US has constructed a web of secretive bilateral migration agreements with over a dozen African states, coercing acceptance of third-country deportees through threats of tariffs, visa restrictions, and aid withdrawal, while offering mineral access deals and security cooperation as inducements.
Apr 16, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
US Brokers DRC-Rwanda De-escalation Commitments
The United States brought the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda into direct talks and secured a joint commitment to coordinated de-escalation steps in eastern Congo.
Apr 7, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Rwanda Renews International Pursuit of Genocide Fugitives
Rwanda publicly renewed demands for foreign states and international bodies to arrest and prosecute or extradite suspects linked to the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi who remain abroad.
Apr 7, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
DR Congo Accepts US Third-Country Deportees
The Democratic Republic of Congo has agreed to receive migrants deported from the United States who are not Congolese nationals, with a temporary reception system established in Kinshasa and US logistical support attached.
Apr 1, 2026
De-escalating
Political
DRC State Authority Implosion and 'Sudanisation' Trajectory
The DRC's central government under Tshisekedi has progressively lost its monopoly on violence to a proliferating array of armed groups across multiple provinces, while simultaneously dismantling institutional guardrails — most notably the 2022 arrest of security adviser François Beya — that previously maintained regional intelligence networks.
Apr 1, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
MONUSCO Drawdown Accelerates Civilian Protection Gap in South Kivu
MONUSCO's troop ceiling has been reduced from 13,500 to 11,500 under successive UNSC resolutions, and the mission completed its withdrawal from South Kivu in 2024, leaving a structural protection vacuum.
Mar 1, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
US-DRC Strategic Partnership Agreement on Minerals and Security
The United States and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have begun implementing a Strategic Partnership Agreement granting US companies preferential access to critical minerals in exchange for expanded security and defence cooperation.
Feb 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
DRC Expands PMC Network to Counter M23 Advances in Eastern Congo
The DRC government has systematically expanded its reliance on foreign private military companies — including Russia's Africa Corps, Agemira RDC, and Congo Protection — to compensate for FARDC operational deficits against M23.
Feb 1, 2026
Stable
Alliance
US Designates First Strategic Asset Reserve Assets in DRC
Implementation of the US-DRC Strategic Partnership Agreement began in February 2026 with the designation of the first Strategic Asset Reserve assets, granting American investors preferential access to selected mining opportunities.
Dec 10, 2025
Mixed
Military
AFC/M23 Capture of Uvira and Burundi's Military Deployment in Eastern DRC
AFC/M23 rebels, backed by the Rwandan army, seized Uvira — South Kivu's provisional capital — just six days after a Washington-brokered peace agreement between DRC and Rwanda.
Dec 4, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
US Revives Rwanda-DRC Accord With Partial Rwanda Withdrawal Pledge
The United States brokered a renewed Rwanda-DRC understanding in which Rwanda pledged a partial pullback toward Goma and Kinshasa agreed to act against the FDLR, tying de-escalation to mineral access and security guarantees.
Dec 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
Rwanda-Backed M23 Captures Uvira After Washington Peace Signing
Days after Congo's Tshisekedi and Rwanda's Kagame ceremonially re-signed a US-brokered peace deal in Washington in early December 2025, Rwandan troops massed in South Kivu and the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group seized Uvira, the last urban center north of the resource-rich Katanga region.
Jul 18, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Ebola Outbreak Detected in DR Congo Ituri Province
Preliminary laboratory confirmation of Ebola in Ituri province, DR Congo, with 65 deaths and 13 of 20 samples testing positive.
Jul 15, 2025
Escalating
Legal
International Court Rules UK Not Liable for Rwanda Asylum Deal Cancellation
An international arbitration court in the Netherlands ruled that the UK owes no compensation to Rwanda following the Starmer government's cancellation of the Rwanda asylum deal.
Jul 15, 2025
De-escalating
Other
WHO Declares DRC Ebola Outbreak Global Health Emergency
The WHO declared the DRC Ebola outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, with 500+ confirmed cases and 131 deaths from the Bundibugyo strain.
Jul 14, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Garcia Installed as US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs
Frank Garcia, a political appointee with no prior diplomatic experience, assumes leadership of US Africa policy at a moment when the State Department's Africa bureau has been significantly hollowed out under the Trump administration.
Jul 14, 2025
Mixed
Sanctions
US Congress Advances Africa Aid Conditionality Bill Amid Defence Budget Expansion
The House Appropriations subcommittee advanced an NSRP bill allocating ~$47bn in foreign affairs discretionary spending — significantly above Trump's $35.6bn request but embedding country-specific conditionalities on Nigeria, South Africa, Sudan, South Sudan, and DRC-Rwanda.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
DRC Establishes Paramilitary Mining Guard Under US-UAE Partnership
The DRC's IGM announced the creation of a 20,000-strong paramilitary mining guard to secure mineral extraction and transport across 22 mining provinces, with full deployment targeted by end-2028 and a first contingent in December 2026.
Jun 10, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Kenya Ebola Quarantine Facility Protests Turn Lethal
Kenyan police killed at least one protester and deployed tear gas and water cannons against hundreds demonstrating against a US-managed Ebola quarantine facility at Laikipia Air Base near Nanyuki.
Jun 3, 2025
De-escalating
Political
DRC Opposition Mobilizes 'Dead City' Protests Against Third-Term Referendum Bill
DRC opposition parties, led by figures including Moïse Katumbi, Martin Fayulu, and Delly Sesanga, are organizing a 'dead city' general strike on 3 June to resist a proposed referendum law that would give Tshisekedi significant power to trigger a constitutional revision enabling a third term.
Jun 2, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Sanctions M23 and FDLR Commanders in Eastern DRC
The U.S. Treasury designated M23 intelligence chief John Imani Nzenze and FDLR special operations commander Gustave Kubwayo, targeting both sides of the eastern DRC conflict.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Political
South Africa Xenophobic Violence Triggers Regional Repatriations
Ghana, Nigeria, Mozambique, and other African states dispatched aircraft to repatriate nationals following sustained xenophobic violence against African migrants in South Africa, with Mozambique reporting five nationals killed.
May 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
AFC/M23–DRC Government Battle for Masisi Territory and Kisangani Airport Strike
Congolese government forces and allied local militias are engaged in sustained combat against AFC/M23 rebels in Masisi territory, North Kivu, contesting control of Katoyi.
May 21, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Uganda Closes DRC Border Over Ebola Outbreak
Uganda's Ministry of Health ordered a temporary border closure with the Democratic Republic of Congo following the spread of an Ebola outbreak from Congo's Ituri province into Ugandan territory, including seven confirmed cases in Kampala.
May 20, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Kagame Africa CEO Forum Address: Anti-Extractive Sovereignty Framing
Rwandan President Paul Kagame addressed 2,800 business leaders and heads of state at the Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, delivering a pointed critique of US and Western extractive engagement with Africa.
May 15, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Ebola Epidemic Declared in Eastern Congo and Uganda — WHO Issues Unprecedented PHEIC
Congo formally declared an Ebola epidemic in Ituri province on May 15, 2025, following laboratory confirmation of multiple cases and dozens of suspected deaths. Spread into Uganda was confirmed shortly after.
May 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Mali Junta Launches Retaliatory Drone Strikes Amid JNIM-FLA Insurgent Advance
Mali's military launched multi-day drone strikes on Kidal — seized by FLA and JNIM in late April — and struck Tene in the central San region, killing at least 10 civilians including children.
May 13, 2025
Stable
Diplomatic
Africa CEO Forum Continental Integration Dialogue, Kigali
Nigerian President Tinubu and Gabonese President Oligui Nguema convened at the Africa CEO Forum in Kigali to address the structural gap between Africa's continental integration ambitions and its fragmented implementation reality.
May 11, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
France Africa Forward Summit, Nairobi
France convenes approximately 20 African heads of state and hundreds of business leaders in Nairobi for the Africa Forward summit, marking a structural reorientation of French Africa policy away from francophone Sahel states toward anglophone and southern African partners.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
ADF Escalation and Operation Shujaa Strategic Failure in Eastern DRC
Despite nearly five years of joint DRC-Uganda Operation Shujaa, the ADF has intensified civilian attacks, expanded geographically into Haut-Uele province, and demonstrated sustained regenerative capacity.
Apr 30, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Treasury Sanctions Joseph Kabila Amid DRC Minerals Diplomacy
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned former DRC President Joseph Kabila on April 30, citing alleged collaboration with M23 rebels — charges that mirror Tshisekedi's domestic political campaign against his predecessor.
Apr 24, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Bundibugyo Ebola Outbreak Spreads Across DRC and Uganda
A Bundibugyo-species Ebola outbreak, likely originating as early as January 2025, had reached 534 confirmed cases and 93 deaths across DRC's Ituri province and Uganda by early June 2025.
Apr 21, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
US Treasury Sanctions Former DRC President Kabila for M23 Support
The US Treasury froze all of Kabila's US-held assets and barred American citizens and institutions from transacting with him, with secondary-penalty warnings extended to foreign banks and partners.
Apr 8, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Burundi Positions Itself for Strategic US Security and Critical Minerals Partnership
The article identifies an emerging alignment in which Burundi seeks greater state leverage over its mining sector while presenting itself as a security and diplomatic partner for the United States.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Uganda Signals Conditional UPDF Withdrawal from Eastern DRC
Uganda's Chief of Defence Forces Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba publicly announced readiness to withdraw UPDF troops from positions spanning Lubero to Mahagi in eastern DRC, framing the move as a response to Ituri Province military governor Lt-Gen Nkashama's restrictions on UPDF operations.
Mar 30, 2025
Escalating
Military
FARDC Launches FDLR Disarmament Operations in Eastern Congo
Congo's army deployed its deputy chief of staff to Kisangani to initiate disarmament operations against the FDLR, a genocide-linked militia that Rwanda has demanded be neutralized as a precondition for peace.
Mar 14, 2025
Mixed
Alliance
Rwanda Threatens Withdrawal from Cabo Delgado Over Funding Gap
Senior Rwandan officials threatened to withdraw over 4,000 RDF troops from Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province unless sustainable international funding is secured, coinciding with the EU's likely non-renewal of approximately $46 million in European Peace Facility contributions beyond May 2025.
Mar 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
Rwanda Weaponizes Mozambique Security Guarantee Against U.S. Sanctions
Following U.S. sanctions on the Rwandan Defense Forces and four senior officers for supporting M23 in eastern Congo, Rwanda publicly threatened to withdraw its troops from Mozambique's Cabo Delgado province, where they have been protecting Exxon Mobil and TotalEnergies gas infrastructure from Islamic State since 2021.
Feb 1, 2025
Mixed
Sanctions
U.S. Project Vault Critical Minerals Stockpile and Congo Resource Strategy Launch
The Trump administration unveiled Project Vault, a $12 billion strategic critical minerals reserve modeled on the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Jan 20, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Withdrawal from WHO and Global Health Governance Frameworks
The Trump administration withdrew the United States from the WHO, shut down USAID, and rejected a global pandemic reporting framework, removing the U.S. as the primary coordinator and funder of international outbreak response.
Jan 20, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Withdrawal from WHO and USAID Liquidation Amid Active Congo Ebola Outbreak
The Trump administration's dismantling of USAID, weakening of CDC international capacity, and January 2025 withdrawal from the WHO — the organization's largest historical funder — has removed the primary U.S. instruments for African public health engagement.
Jan 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
ADF Massacre in Bafwakoa, Ituri Province
The Allied Democratic Forces attacked the village of Bafwakoa in Mambasa territory, Ituri province, killing at least 43 civilians with machetes and by burning homes, while abducting two people and torching 44 structures.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
DRC Term-Limit Revision Campaign Gains Momentum Under Wartime Cover
Tshisekedi's political base is mobilizing to revise or circumvent the DRC constitution's explicit prohibition on presidential term-limit amendments, using the ongoing M23 conflict as justification for electoral delays and football nationalism as a popular legitimacy vehicle.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Proposed Transfer of Afghan Evacuees from Qatar to DRC
Reports emerged that Afghan evacuees — including former interpreters, contractors, and civil society partners — housed in Qatar since the 2021 U.S. withdrawal are being considered for transfer to the Democratic Republic of the Congo rather than resettlement in the United States.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
Trump Administration Expands U.S. Backing for Critical Minerals Access in Central Africa
The reported policy shift indicates a more forceful U.S. economic-security push to secure critical mineral access in the DRC and wider Copperbelt through support for major American mining companies.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Bundibugyo Ebola Outbreak Becomes Congo's Deadliest and Fastest-Spreading
An Ebola outbreak that began at least eight months before detection has killed over 3,500 people across the Democratic Republic of the Congo, spreading further before detection than any previous outbreak.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
81st UN General Assembly Opens With African Files Dominant
The 81st session of the General Assembly convenes on 22 September with African crises at the center of its agenda, including the wars in Sudan and eastern Congo and the contest to succeed the secretary-general.
Date unknown
Mixed
Sanctions
China Zeroes Out African Tariffs as Its Demand Slowdown Splits African Exporters
China eliminated tariffs on imports from the entire African continent in May while its own slowdown reshaped the terms of the relationship.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
US-Africa Strategic Infrastructure Working Group Agrees First Project Slate
A working group signed earlier this year between the African Union Commission and Washington has moved from announcement to structure, naming a narrow first slate: two Mozambican jetty and port projects, Namibia's Walvis Bay hydrogen hub, the long-stalled Inga hydroelectric scheme in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and a data centre.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US G20 Presidency Strips Africa's Development Agenda With Minimal AU Pushback
Washington removed South Africa from the G20 presidency and discarded almost all of the developmental agenda Pretoria had inherited from Indonesia, India and Brazil.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
AFC/M23 Parallel Administration Outpaces Kinshasa's Ability to Enforce Appointments
The rebel alliance has extended from military control into governance, staffing the judiciary, higher education and local administration across eastern territory it has held since Goma and Bukavu fell in January and February 2025.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Climate Hazards Compound Conflict Displacement Across the Great Lakes
The DRC hosted 4.93 million internally displaced people by the end of 2025, Africa's second largest such population, with over a million new displacements in AFC/M23-held territory in the first quarter alone.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
African Heads of State Claim Control of Ebola Response Architecture
The presidents of Burundi, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda set out an operating principle in which countries lead, the continental health body coordinates, and partners fund through national systems rather than parallel channels.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
Uganda's Military Chief Consolidates Power Ahead of Museveni Succession
Uganda's military chief announced the closure of the Daily Monitor and NTV Uganda on social media before any official channel, and soldiers blocked the premises without notice.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
United States Terminates Women, Peace and Security Programme
Washington has ended its Women, Peace and Security programme, removing the largest single funder from an agenda the UN Security Council established in 2000 and the African Union carried onto the continent.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Pan-Africanist Critique Frames Continental Crises as Renewed External Domination
The commentary treats Africa's active crises as one system rather than separate emergencies. Sudan's war, resource-driven conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, insurgency in Cabo Delgado
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Chinese Africa Finance Shifts From Sovereign Lending to Corporate Ownership
Chinese sovereign lending to African governments fell from above $28 billion in 2016 to $2.1 billion in 2024 amid debt distress in Angola, Ethiopia, Ghana and Zambia, but Belt and Road investment on the continent surged 254 percent in the first half of 2026 to a record $33.5 billion, now largely as private equity in energy, metals and manufacturing.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
South African Regional Trade Surplus Framed as Driver of Migration Backlash
South Africa exported roughly 31.2 billion dollars to the rest of Africa in 2024 against about 10.7 billion in imports, a pattern of industrial and processed goods flowing out and raw materials flowing in.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Accra Conference Convened on Governance of Africa's Critical Minerals
Sub-Saharan Africa holds close to 30 percent of world reserves in the minerals driving the energy transition, with revenues from four of them projected near 16 trillion dollars by 2050.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
CFR Issues Crisis Playbook for U.S. Responses to Insurgency-Related Conflict
The Council on Foreign Relations published a decision-support playbook codifying how U.S. policymakers should assess and respond to insurgency-related crises, from pre-crisis intelligence questions through a four-option strategic spectrum of monitor, contain, defend, and transform, backed by case studies from FARC and Boko Haram to the Islamic State, Tigray, the RSF, and M23.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Ebola Outbreak Escapes Containment in Congo's Ituri Displacement Camps
The Ebola outbreak declared in May has reached the displacement camps around Bunia holding over a million people driven from their homes by militia violence, with Congo's health ministry recording 2,423 confirmed cases and 967 deaths and the WHO warning true figures may run two to four times higher.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Congo Ebola Outbreak Outpaces Response as Conflict Blocks Containment
The Democratic Republic of the Congo has confirmed 2,473 Ebola cases and more than 1,000 deaths since May in the fastest-growing outbreak ever recorded, with officials fearing the true count is four times higher and the WHO conceding the epidemic is outpacing response.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Army-Militia Security Bargains Proliferate Across Central Africa
Across Chad, Cameroon, CAR, eastern DRC, and South Sudan, the line between state security forces and armed groups is dissolving into hybrid bargains: militias fight alongside armies, collect revenue, run checkpoints, and govern areas outside state control.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Ebola Outbreak Nears M23-Held Eastern DRC as Rebels Assert Health Authority
The Ebola outbreak spreading south from Ituri has reached the M23 zone, including one case in Goma, the rebel headquarters.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Illicit Gold Mining Erodes State Control in Cameroon and Eastern DRC
Gold revenues are bypassing official coffers in Cameroon and the DRC, with 44 tonnes of Cameroonian gold smuggled to Dubai between 2021 and 2025 against 148 kg declared.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Bundibugyo Ebola Outbreak in the DRC and Central-East Africa
A rare Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, circulating undetected since around February, has become the third-largest Ebola outbreak on record, with over 1,500 confirmed cases and 500-plus deaths concentrated in eastern DRC and cases in Uganda and France.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
US-China Contest Over Lobito and Tazara Mineral Corridors Intensifies
The Tazara railway east to Dar es Salaam and the Lobito corridor west to Angola's Atlantic coast have shifted from infrastructure projects to instruments of great-power competition.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Ebola Spreads in Eastern Congo as Safe-Burial Protocols Break Down
In DR Congo's gold-mining Ituri region, Ebola continues to spread as trained safe-burial teams are absent and community funerals become new transmission chains.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Congo Strategic Minerals Partnership Reframes Africa Policy
The 2025 U.S.-Congo 'strategic partnership' is presented as exemplifying how African leaders bend Washington toward their survival interests rather than the reverse.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
DRC Escalates Diplomatic and Legal Pressure on Rwanda at the UN
The Democratic Republic of Congo is using its UN Security Council presidency and a new ICJ case to press Rwanda over its forces and M23 allies in the east, while the US sanctions Rwandan targets.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
DRC-Rwanda Washington Peace Accord Stalls at 35% Implementation
One year after the US-brokered DRC-Rwanda accord, implementation reached only 35%, with three of thirty tasks done and the core security pillar stalled as Rwanda-backed M23 forces captured Uvira and South Kivu and drone strikes intensified.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Ebola Outbreak Overwhelms Eastern Congo Health System
An Ebola (Bundibugyo) outbreak in Ituri Province has exceeded the response capacity of the Congolese state, with contact tracing at 30 percent against an 80 percent target and 95 percent of treatment beds occupied.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Congo Parliament Adopts Bill Enabling Tshisekedi Third Term
Congo's Parliament adopted a bill permitting a constitutional overhaul via referendum that would reset President Tshisekedi's term count and open a path to extended rule.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Angola's DRC Dialogue Mediation Stalls
Angolan President Lourenço, mandated in February to begin consultations on a political dialogue in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, has failed to get the initiative off the ground and has become increasingly discreet.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Conflict and Inter-State Rivalry Undermine Eastern DRC Ebola Response
ISS argues the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak across Ituri and the Kivus cannot be contained without progress on the Doha, Washington, and AU peace tracks, because conflict and proxy rivalry block coordinated response.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Bundibugyo Ebola Outbreak Strains Congo State Response Capacity
A Bundibugyo-strain Ebola outbreak across Ituri, North Kivu, and South Kivu is outpacing response capacity amid weak labs, community mistrust, and active conflict.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Spread of Ukrainian Drone Technology to African Conflicts
Ukrainian drone manufacturing, modification know-how, and instructors are spreading to African states and armed groups, with emulation of first-person-view and fibre-optic tactics appearing in Mali, Sudan, and the DRC.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Ebola Outbreak Response Escalation in Bunia, DRC
An Ebola outbreak in Bunia, Ituri Province, DRC has killed more than 200 people, straining a health system already degraded by active armed conflict.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Recurring Ebola Outbreaks Amid DRC Governance Collapse
Ongoing armed conflict, fragile central government authority, and collapsing public trust in the DRC are creating structural conditions for more frequent Ebola outbreaks.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Strategic Disengagement from Africa Amid Rising Competitor Presence
The United States is experiencing a structural contraction of its Africa engagement capacity: approximately 35 ambassadorial posts remain unfilled, USAID programming has been cut, and U.S. participation in Ebola response and counterterrorism capacity-building has diminished.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
AGOA Renewal Debate and Trump Administration Reorientation Toward Conditionality
AGOA expires December 31, 2026, and the Trump administration has signaled a fundamental reorientation of the program away from development-minded preferences toward reciprocal market access demands, stricter eligibility criteria, and national security carve-outs.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Ebola Bundibugyo Outbreak in Ituri Province, DRC
A rare Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak centered in Mongwalu, Ituri Province has produced one of the highest death tolls in DRC outbreak history, with the cumulative count already surpassing the combined toll of the only two prior Bundibugyo episodes.
War / Africa
Federal drone strikes on Mekelle and a deadlocked multi-front insurgency push Ethiopia toward renewed full-scale war.
War / Africa
Sudan's army fights on across Khartoum while a chlorine munitions dossier and a US embargo push reshape the conflict's accountability.
M23/AFC functions as Rwanda's primary deniable armed lever in eastern DRC, with RDF troops embedded and commanding operations per UN panel findings.
FDLR serves as the cross-border Hutu genocidaire militia Rwanda cites as its non-negotiable security precondition.
ADF operates as an ISIS-linked insurgent network sustaining a separate lethal violence track across North Kivu, Ituri, and Haut-Uele.
Africa Corps, Agemira RDC, and Congo Protection form Kinshasa's PMC combat network, providing deniable ground capacity alongside FARDC against M23 and RDF.
Wazalendo militias partner with FARDC against M23 while running checkpoints and taxing populations in areas outside firm state control.