Escalating / Middle East
Gaza War
Israel presses strikes in Gaza as Iran anchors leverage at Hormuz and Houthis seize Bab al-Mandab approaches.
Middle East
The Iran-Israel/US War broke out in April 2024, when Iran launched the first direct missile and drone strike on Israeli territory in the 45-year history of the rivalry.
Until then, the two states had fought through proxies. Israel hit back inside Iran, killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah months later, and absorbed a second Iranian ballistic barrage in October. The fight is over Iran's nuclear program, which has enriched uranium to 60 percent, a short technical step from weapons-grade. The US backs Israel with air defense, intelligence, and a regional troop posture. Russia and China keep Iran solvent and diplomatically covered.
The Begin Doctrine, Israel's standing pledge to destroy any regional rival's nuclear program by force, has never been tested against an adversary that can strike back.
The war has settled into strategic quagmire.
Seven months after US and Israeli strikes opened the conflict, Iran holds Hormuz under the Persian Gulf Strait Authority's transit-fee regime, Houthi forces control Bab al-Mandab after seizing Mocha and Perim Island, and the Saudi East-West pipeline bypass is gone.
Convoy escort has lifted Hormuz throughput to roughly ten million barrels daily, still a fifth of prewar levels, with Brent near $104.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Iran launches its first direct missile and drone strikes on Israeli territory in April, crossing a historic threshold after decades of proxy-only confrontation; Israel retaliates with strikes inside Iran.
Escalation accelerates as Israel kills Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, strikes Iranian-backed forces across the region, and Iran fires a second ballistic missile barrage at Israel in October, drawing renewed US military assets to the theater.
The US withdraws from the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal under President Trump and reimposed maximum-pressure sanctions; Iran responds by progressively advancing uranium enrichment toward 60%, within weeks of weapons-grade 90%.
The Stuxnet cyberweapon, jointly developed by the US and Israel, sabotages Iranian centrifuges at Natanz, marking the start of overt covert warfare directly targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
Israel destroys a covert Syrian nuclear reactor in Operation Orchard, reinforcing the Begin Doctrine and demonstrating willingness to strike without warning or public acknowledgment.
Sep 18, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
South Korea Rules Out Military Deployment to Middle East War
Lee Jae Myung stated flatly that South Korea will not deploy military assets in any form that would involve it in the war with Iran, while leaving open an expanded shipping-protection role drawing on the existing anti-piracy presence off Somalia.
Sep 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US Approves $24bn Sale of 48 F-35 Fighter Jets to Saudi Arabia
The State Department approved and announced the sale of nearly 50 F-35s to Saudi Arabia, a policy reversal on a platform Washington had withheld to protect Israel's legally mandated qualitative military edge.
Sep 17, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
United States Grants Iranian Delegation Access to UN General Assembly Amid War
The US State Department agreed to admit Iran's core delegation to United Nations General Assembly High Level Week, citing host country obligations under the 1947 headquarters treaty, which bars impediments to transit.
Sep 17, 2026
De-escalating
Other
UN Investigators Find Reasonable Grounds That US Strikes in Iran Were War Crimes
UN investigators concluded there are reasonable grounds to believe two US airstrikes on February 28 were indiscriminate attacks amounting to war crimes, killing at least 178 civilians including around 123 children at an elementary school.
Sep 17, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Russia and China Veto Renewal of UN Expert Panel Monitoring Iran
Russia and China vetoed a US resolution extending the mandate of the expert panel monitoring Iran's nuclear program and sanctions evasion, arguing the underlying sanctions had expired.
Sep 17, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Fact-Finding Mission Finds Grounds US Committed War Crimes in Iran Strikes
An independent three-expert fact-finding mission reported to the UN Human Rights Council that it had reasonable grounds to believe US forces carried out indiscriminate attacks on two civilian sites on 28 February, the opening day of the war.
Sep 16, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Aviation Sanctions Force Iranian Carrier to Halt Regional Routes
Iran's largest private carrier notified travel agencies it would suspend flights to Oman and Turkey, citing decisions by those countries' aviation authorities rather than sanctions.
Sep 16, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Extends Visa Ban Barring Palestinian Officials From UN General Assembly
The State Department announced it would continue denying visas to Palestinian officials, keeping Mahmoud Abbas from the annual United Nations General Assembly for a second consecutive year.
Sep 16, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. House Passes Graham Russia and Iran Sanctions Act
The House passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 on September 16 after Senate passage on August 7, sending it toward the president's desk.
Sep 16, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
China Hosts Iranian Foreign Minister Days Before Trump-Xi Summit
China's top diplomat met Iran's foreign minister in Beijing, repeating calls to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while declining to assign blame to any country.
Sep 16, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Claim Saudi F-15 Downing as Saudi Arabia Reports Drone Intercept Near Mecca
The Houthis said they downed a Saudi F-15 over Yemeni territory with a locally produced missile, hours after the Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed a Houthi drone south of Mecca as it headed toward restricted airspace over the city.
Sep 15, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
House Passes Third Iran War Powers Resolution
The House voted 220-204 to direct the administration to end the Iran war or seek explicit authorization, the fifth time a chamber majority has done so.
Sep 15, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
United States Approves $2.8bn Heavy Bomb Package for Israel
Washington approved a $2.8bn munitions package for Israel comprising 20,000 MK-84 and 20,000 BLU-117 one-ton bombs plus 20,000 I-2000 penetrator warheads, and routed it to congressional committees for informal review.
Sep 15, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israeli Drone Strikes in Gaza City Kill Civilians Amid Rejected Disarmament Framework
Two Israeli drone strikes less than a minute apart in the Sheikh Radwan neighbourhood of Gaza City killed a fifteen-year-old and a civil defence worker who had responded to the first strike, with the military saying the outcome was under review.
Sep 15, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Congressional Budget Office Estimates $38 Billion Iran War Cost and Interceptor Depletion
The CBO put the Iran war's cost at roughly $38 billion through August 1, with $2 billion to $3 billion monthly thereafter and at least five years to rebuild stockpiles.
Sep 15, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Seize Perim Island and Mokha as Saudi-Houthi Strike Exchanges Widen
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis accused each other of attacks with casualties on both sides, with Riyadh reporting strikes on three cities that injured thirteen people and the Houthi-run health ministry reporting three killed by Saudi airstrikes in Taiz.
Sep 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
U.S. Forces Destroy Iranian Boats Attempting Seizure of Naval Surface Drone
Iranian small craft tried to take possession of a U.S. Saildrone unmanned surface vessel in waters off Hormozgan province and were destroyed by U.S. Central Command forces.
Sep 14, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Oil Price Surge to 100 Dollars Triggers Fuel Protests and Rationing Across Asia, Latin America and the Middle East
A fresh energy price surge tied to the war against Iran has pushed governments across three continents into a choice between inflation and debt.
Sep 14, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Treasury Sanctions Russia's VTB Bank as Iranian Financial Node
The Treasury Department designated Russia's second-largest financial institution as a key financial node for Iran and imposed additional sanctions intended to push foreign banks into severing correspondent ties.
Sep 14, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Austria Denies Visa to Iran's Nuclear Chief for IAEA General Conference
The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization was excluded from the IAEA general conference in Vienna after a UN Security Council sanctions committee rejected Austria's request for a travel ban exemption, following a US objection.
Sep 14, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Somaliland President Runs Washington Campaign for US Recognition
Somaliland's president escalated a two-week Washington visit into a public case for US recognition, with a keynote at a conservative think tank, a hosting by Taiwan's de facto embassy, and prior appearances at a Middle East dialogue summit and a reception at the Israeli ambassador's residence.
Sep 13, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
BRICS Summit Adopts New Delhi Declaration on Institutional Reform
The eighteenth BRICS summit closed in New Delhi with a declaration of almost 140 clauses, reached after the bloc had failed to agree at a foreign ministers meeting in May.
Sep 12, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
BRICS Summit Convenes in New Delhi With Iran Inside the Bloc
Leaders of the expanded BRICS grouping met in New Delhi while Iranian and Houthi action on the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea pushed oil above 100 dollars a barrel.
Sep 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Forces Seize Mocha and Red Sea Coastal Towns in Western Yemen
Houthi forces advanced along Yemen's western Red Sea coast, taking a string of towns including the port of Mocha and islands offshore, pushing their control to the approaches of the Bab al-Mandab strait.
Sep 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran and Allies Take Position Astride Both Middle East Oil Export Routes
Iranian-allied Houthi forces captured a Red Sea island, giving them a perch over the second of the region's two oil export corridors, while a drone strike from Iraqi territory forced the temporary shutdown of the Saudi pipeline to Red Sea ports.
Sep 11, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Modi and Putin Deepen India-Russia Partnership on Summit Eve
The Indian and Russian leaders met for the second time in two weeks in New Delhi, agreeing to strengthen their partnership across energy and defense and touring an industrial fair spanning nuclear, aviation, space and banking.
Sep 10, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Saudi Arabia Shuts East-West Pipeline After Attacks
Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline after it was attacked multiple times on Thursday, with injuries reported. The line was the kingdom's means of continuing crude exports after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz
Sep 10, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Forces Capture Port of Mokha Near Bab al-Mandeb
Houthi forces seized Mokha on Yemen's Red Sea coast, routing Saudi-backed Yemeni units and extending their hold along the approach to the Bab al-Mandeb strait.
Sep 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Delivers Saudi Warning to Iran as Houthi Fighting Tests Trilateral Defence Pact
Pakistan passed a Saudi warning to Tehran urging restraint on the Houthis, and its army chief spoke with Iran's foreign minister about de-escalation.
Sep 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Refuses Saudi Request for US Strikes on Houthis
The Saudi crown prince telephoned the US president twice in one day urging strikes against the Houthis and was refused, with officials saying Washington does not intend direct military action against the group at this time.
Sep 10, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israel Destroys Hezbollah Command Complex at Ali al-Taher Ridge
Israeli forces established control above and below ground at the Ali al-Taher ridge roughly fifteen kilometres from the border, then demolished a tunnel network extending more than two kilometres that held rockets, missiles, drones and anti-tank weapons.
Sep 9, 2026
De-escalating
Other
UK Ten-Year Gilt Yield Reaches G7 High Amid Debt Sustainability Concern
The UK ten-year gilt yield stood at 5.2 percent, above American, German and Japanese equivalents, with the debt to output ratio already over 100 percent.
Sep 9, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Trump Pledges $5,000 Payout Contingent on Republican Midterm Sweep
Speaking in Dallas, the president promised a $5,000 payment to every adult citizen conditional on Republicans taking both chambers in November, with no stated funding source and a requirement that the money be spent domestically.
Sep 9, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
IAEA Board Refers Iran to UN Security Council Over Undeclared Uranium Traces
Twenty-three of the 35 board members voted to refer Iran to the Security Council for non-cooperation with the investigation into uranium traces at undeclared sites, following the June 2025 finding of non-compliance.
Sep 9, 2026
Stable
Other
British Government Defends Settlement Sanctions Against Domestic Backlash
One day after Britain announced trade sanctions on illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank, the foreign secretary publicly rejected the chief rabbi's claim that the measure endangered British Jews.
Sep 8, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Israel Closes British Consulate After UK Sanctions West Bank Settlements
Britain announced trade sanctions on Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, backed the same day by a dozen countries including France and Canada.
Sep 8, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Britain, France and Canada Halt Trade With West Bank Settlements
Britain announced a ban on trade with Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, followed by France and Canada and endorsed by nine other European states.
Sep 8, 2026
Mixed
Military
US Strikes Iranian Tankers Off Kharg Island and Jask
American forces struck multiple Iranian oil tankers off Kharg Island and the port of Jask after attempted Iranian strikes on a US Navy warship.
Sep 8, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Missile and Drone Assault on Southern Saudi Cities
Houthi forces struck four Saudi cities with missiles and drones, wounding more than 70 people and damaging oil facilities tied to the Bab el-Mandeb logistics corridor and King Khalid Air Base near Khamis Mushait.
Sep 8, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
UK Imposes Settlement Sanctions Regime as Israel Closes British Consulate
The UK announced a comprehensive sanctions regime targeting West Bank settlements and settlement expansion, banning imports and acting against companies and individuals providing construction, infrastructure and financing services, alongside an advertising ban.
Sep 8, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Britain Announces Trade Ban on Israeli Settlement Goods
Britain set out economic restrictions on West Bank settlements, expected to include a ban on trade in goods produced there, announced in Parliament by the foreign secretary.
Sep 8, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Strikes Hit Southern Saudi Cities and Energy Facilities
Houthi forces struck civilian and economic targets in four cities near Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, injuring 73 people and causing fires that temporarily halted operations at energy facilities.
Sep 7, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
China-Central Asia-Iran Block Train Opens Overland Sanctions Bypass
A block train of 55 container cars crossed from Xinjiang into Kazakhstan bound for Iran through Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, with arrival expected around September 21.
Sep 7, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Russia Claims $13 Billion in Arms Export Contracts as Verification Collapses
Rosoboronexport reported on September 7 that Russia signed $13 billion in weapons export contracts in the first half of 2026, claiming this equals all of 2025.
Sep 7, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Strikes US Navy Ships in Unacknowledged Second Wave
Iran attacked US Navy ships on Monday in an operation the US military has not acknowledged, according to US officials, following weekend missile strikes on an aircraft carrier and a destroyer.
Sep 6, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Iranian Oil Tankers as Tehran Threatens Sharper Retaliation
Washington struck Iranian oil tankers in response to Iranian attacks on American warships, and Tehran's lead negotiator answered with a warning of a faster and heavier response.
Sep 5, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Strikes U.S. Warships With Ballistic Missiles, U.S. Hits Iranian Oil Tankers
Iran targeted two U.S. military vessels with ballistic missiles for the first time, and American forces struck three Iranian oil tankers in response, sinking one.
Sep 5, 2026
Escalating
Military
United States Strikes Iranian Tankers as Hormuz Attrition Holds
The United States struck three Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for attempted attacks on two US warships, the latest exchange in a strait where at least twenty-three ships were hit across July and August and four merchant seamen were killed.
Sep 5, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Ambassador Condemns Israeli Settler Attacks at West Bank Town Hall
Ambassador Mike Huckabee met Palestinian American residents of Turmus Aya in the occupied West Bank and described settler assailants as terrorists, an unusual public position for an envoy long aligned with Israel's settler right.
Sep 5, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Tankers After Missile Attack on Navy Warships
US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward two American warships, one of them an aircraft carrier, according to US Central Command.
Sep 4, 2026
Stable
Cyber
Netanyahu Posts AI-Generated Campaign Video Casting Foreign Critics as Enemies
Israel's prime minister posted a labelled AI-generated video to his personal account showing an animated New York mayor calling Turkey's president, Iran's supreme leader and the Palestinian Authority president to celebrate his anticipated defeat, ending with him as election victor.
Sep 3, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israel Captures Ali al-Taher Ridge in Southern Lebanon
Israeli forces established operational control over the Ali al-Taher ridge about six miles from the border, above a major Hezbollah underground complex, after an encirclement operation begun in June.
Sep 3, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Vice President Declines to Call Iran Conflict a War in White House Briefing
In the first White House briefing in weeks, the vice president said he would not call the Iran conflict a war, described recent strikes as occasional flare-ups and said Iran would decide when it ends.
Sep 3, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israel Clears Hezbollah Tunnels at Ali al-Taher Ridge in Southern Lebanon
Israeli forces cleared two underground routes into a fortified complex beneath the Ali al-Taher ridge about six miles from the Israeli border and said they would neutralize the site Hezbollah used to launch attacks.
Sep 3, 2026
Escalating
Military
South Korea Prepares Strait of Hormuz Naval Contribution
Seoul is reported to be readying a freedom of navigation contribution in the Strait of Hormuz, with cabinet review and a parliamentary consent motion expected this month and deployment targeted before year end.
Sep 3, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Signals U.S. Would Not Back UK in a Falklands Confrontation
Asked whether Washington would come to Britain's aid in a renewed Falklands dispute, Trump pointedly declined to commit, calling the islands a long way away and linking his answer to British non-participation in the U.S. campaign against Iran.
Sep 2, 2026
De-escalating
Military
USS Abraham Lincoln Port Call in Thailand After 286-Day Iran Deployment
The Abraham Lincoln, one of four carriers used in the US air campaign against Iran, docked near Pattaya for a five-day port call after 286 days at sea without a liberty stop.
Sep 2, 2026
De-escalating
Military
USS Abraham Lincoln Ends 286-Day Deployment Amid U.S. Force Strain in Iran War
The nuclear-powered carrier docked in Thailand after 286 days at sea, most of it supporting the war against Iran, visibly degraded and with crew reporting food shortages, sewage failures and severe morale problems.
Sep 2, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israeli Forces Kill Two Palestinians During Al Mughayir Village Raid
After a day of confrontations over disputed livestock, Israeli soldiers and border police entered Al Mughayir at night, deployed snipers on rooftops and shot dead two youths outside their homes.
Sep 2, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Strikes US Bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain
Tehran answered renewed American bombing with a dispersed missile and drone salvo against US positions across four host states.
Sep 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
SCO Bishkek Summit Expands Security Mandate to Crime, Communications, and AI
At the twenty-fifth anniversary summit, ten member states signed 28 documents, approved regulations for a new Universal Center for Countering Security Challenges and Threats in Tashkent to replace the counterterrorism structure, and stood up an information security centre and a transnational organized crime branch in Bishkek.
Sep 1, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Assumes SCO Chairmanship as Bishkek Declaration Backs Iran
The SCO summit in Bishkek from 31 August to 1 September gathered Xi, Putin, Modi, Pezeshkian, and Sharif in the first major Eurasian multilateral gathering after the 2026 Israel-US war on Iran.
Sep 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
IAEA Reports It Cannot Verify Iran's Enriched Uranium Stockpile
An internal report says inspectors remain locked out of Iran's enrichment facilities and the agency can no longer account for the size, composition or whereabouts of a stockpile last verified at 9,874.9 kilograms, including 440.9 kilograms at 60 percent enrichment.
Aug 31, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Xi Convenes Russia and Iran in Bishkek as G20 Finance Meeting Fractures
Xi Jinping met the leaders of Russia, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia and Uzbekistan at a security summit in Bishkek, presenting China as the champion of an orderly multipolar order.
Aug 31, 2026
Escalating
Other
Crude Prices Rise on Expectation of Prolonged Hormuz Disruption
Oil moved higher as traders priced a longer supply disruption following renewed U.S. and Iranian exchanges, including an American strike on missile launchers on an island in the Strait of Hormuz.
Aug 31, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Israel and Greece Sign $3.5 Billion Air Defense Agreement
Greece contracted Israel to build a comprehensive multilayered air defense array covering drones and ballistic missiles, becoming the first European state to field the system.
Aug 31, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
25th Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit Opens in Bishkek
The summit opened in Bishkek with an agenda on trade, digital connectivity and cultural exchange that tracks Chinese priorities, and with attendance by the Chinese, Russian and Iranian leaders that gives it an anti-American framing.
Aug 31, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Bishkek Summit Rallies Russia and Iran With China and India
Putin and Pezeshkian travelled to Bishkek for a two-day meeting of the ten-nation grouping that now includes India, Pakistan, Belarus, and Iran, using it to demonstrate support outside the West.
Aug 31, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. and Iran Exchange Strikes Over Strait of Hormuz Mining
U.S. forces bombarded Iranian troops on Larak Island preparing mine-armed rockets for the Strait of Hormuz, killing and wounding an unspecified number.
Aug 30, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Strikes Jordan With Ballistic Missiles as Amman Declines to Retaliate
Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at Jordan overnight Sunday, the latest in a campaign running since February that has included hundreds of drones and missiles and a July strike on the Azraq base that killed three American soldiers.
Aug 30, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Treasury Signals Weekly Secondary Sanctions Cadence Against Iran's Banking Channels
Washington announced an intent to issue secondary sanctions on a weekly cadence, beginning with banks holding Iranian money, and flagged full exclusion from dollar clearing as the escalation step.
Aug 30, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Forces Strike Iranian Rocket Launchers on Larak Island
American forces destroyed two Iranian rocket launchers positioned on Larak Island inside the Strait of Hormuz, breaking a weeks-long pause in direct strikes. Central Command said the launchers were being readied to fire.
Aug 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Settler Assault Near Qusra Draws Rare Israeli Government Condemnation
Dozens of Israeli settlers broke into a Palestinian home under renovation near Qusra in the northern West Bank, trapping and attacking the people inside, while a second group attacked journalists and a displaced woman four miles away in Jalud.
Aug 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Israel Surges West Bank Troops as Settler Violence Reaches Record Rate
Israel's chief of staff ordered a significant troop increase in the West Bank after the senior commander there warned that settler violence risked igniting broader escalation.
Aug 27, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Qatari Prime Minister Visits Tehran to Revive Hormuz Mediation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran to seek conditions for renewed dialogue and the restoration of marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Aug 26, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran and Oman Agree Revenue-Sharing Framework for Strait of Hormuz Transit
Tehran and Muscat agreed a revenue-sharing arrangement covering Hormuz transit, moving past the joint temporary navigational corridor and mine-clearing statement issued the previous day by adding the toll mechanism Iran had demanded.
Aug 25, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Iran and Oman Agree Interim Hormuz Transit Corridor
Oman's foreign minister flew to Iran and came away with the outline of a bilateral bargain establishing a temporary seven-mile transit corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, with inbound traffic through Iranian territorial waters, outbound through Iranian and Omani waters, and warships excluded.
Aug 25, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
CIA Director Holds Talks With Russian Intelligence Services in Moscow
The American intelligence chief met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow without meeting the president, who was briefed afterward. The Kremlin disclosed nothing of the agenda beyond confirming that the contact occurred.
Aug 25, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US Submits Saudi Nuclear Cooperation Agreement to Congress
The administration transmitted a landmark nuclear cooperation accord with Saudi Arabia to Congress for review, retaining a last-minute condition tying it to Saudi normalisation with Israel.
Aug 25, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
CIA Director Makes Unannounced Visit to Moscow
The director of the Central Intelligence Agency travelled unannounced to Moscow, his first publicly known visit to the Russian capital, confirmed by U.S. officials. No agenda was disclosed.
Aug 25, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iran Dismisses US Economic Onslaught as Exhausted Playbook
The United States announced sanctions spanning digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping, warning that any nation partnering financially with Iran would be isolated.
Aug 25, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Mediates Between Washington and Tehran on Hormuz and War Termination
Pakistan's army chief and interior minister concluded a Tehran visit focused on preventing further escalation, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reaching a negotiated settlement to the US and Israeli war on Iran.
Aug 24, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US Submits Saudi Civil Nuclear Agreement to Congressional Review
Washington transmitted the US-Saudi 123 Agreement signed on July 22 to Congress, opening a 90-day review window. The thirty-year framework commits both sides to a two-year joint enrichment and conversion study
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Treasury Escalates Financial Campaign Against Iran
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an economic onslaught against Iran's global financial connections on August 24, restating a promise first made in April under Operation Economic Fury.
Aug 24, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Treasury Unveils Campaign to Sever Iran From the Global Economy
The US Treasury secretary unveiled a campaign to cut Iran off from the global economy, extending the economic front of the conflict beyond military measures.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Replaces Military Campaign Against Iran With Operation Economic Outcast
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a sustained campaign to isolate Iran and collapse its economy, replacing the air campaign that began on February 28 and failed to break the regime.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Targets Bank Melli Under Operation Economic Outcast
Washington escalated its economic campaign against Iran by demanding the closure of every foreign branch of Bank Melli and threatening secondary consequences for states that continue transacting with Tehran.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Unveils Operation Economic Outcast Against Iran
The U.S. Treasury announced a secondary sanctions campaign intended to isolate Iran globally after six months of air strikes failed to force capitulation.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Treasury Threatens Secondary Sanctions Across Five Iranian Sectors
Treasury announced it would target Iran's gold, digital asset, aviation, shipping and technology sectors and punish any country or entity transacting in them.
Aug 24, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
United States Removes Syria From State Sponsors of Terrorism List
The Treasury Department removed Syria's state sponsor of terrorism designation, the last remaining element of the American sanctions structure imposed since the late 1970s.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Other
US Crosses Fiscal, Military and Allied Thresholds in a Single Week
National debt passed 40 trillion dollars as the Treasury Secretary doubled long-term debt purchases to steady a bond market that pushed borrowing costs to their highest since 2007.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Washington Threatens Secondary Sanctions on Iran's Remaining Trade Partners
The Treasury Secretary was set to unveil a sanctions package aimed at isolating Tehran from the global economy after Trump threatened tremendous economic consequences for any country doing business with Iran.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iran Vows Retaliation Against States Joining U.S. Economic Pressure Campaign
Iran's foreign ministry rejected an escalating American pressure campaign hours before the Treasury secretary was due to announce new isolation measures, and a senior security official warned that participation in that campaign would be treated as an act of war.
Aug 22, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Israeli Strikes in Syria Widen Into a Contest Over Turkish Military Access
A second Israeli strike in a week hit a vehicle near Beit Jinn, southwest of Damascus, and Syria condemned it as a violation of international law.
Aug 22, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iran Threatens Gulf Shipping Alternatives and US Commercial Assets Over Isolation Campaign
Rezaei told state television that neighbours joining the American economic war would be considered enemies and that Iran would target oil shipping routes serving as alternatives to Hormuz.
Aug 22, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Israel-Lebanon Withdrawal Talks Deadlock as Hezbollah Disarmament Stalls
Seven rounds of direct talks since April produced an agreement in principle for phased Israeli withdrawal matched by Lebanese Army deployment, but the rollout has stalled with Israel refusing further expansion.
Aug 21, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Prepares Secondary Sanctions on Buyers of Iranian Oil
Washington signalled a move from direct sanctions on Iran to secondary sanctions on any state or firm purchasing Iranian oil, with Treasury set to detail the measures.
Aug 20, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Somali Pirates Hijack Suspected Iranian Shadow-Fleet Tanker Off Yemen
Seven armed pirates boarded an Eritrean flagged tanker linked to Iran's sanctions evasion fleet about 130 miles off Yemen and diverted it into Somali waters, the second hijacking in four days.
Aug 20, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Western States Condemn Israeli E1 Settlement Tender in West Bank
Israel advanced construction in the E1 corridor by tendering housing units in the strip that separates the northern and southern West Bank, and five Western governments responded with condemnation that Israel rejected.
Aug 20, 2026
Stable
Military
USS George Washington Relieves USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea
American officials confirmed that the carrier George Washington has arrived in the Arabian Sea to replace the Abraham Lincoln, which held station for months without a port call.
Aug 20, 2026
De-escalating
Other
CFR Report Documents Depletion of US Precision Munitions Stockpiles
A Council on Foreign Relations report published today quantifies the drawdown: more than 1,500 Patriot interceptors fired with fewer than 830 remaining, roughly 40 percent of THAAD interceptors expended, Tomahawk stocks down about a third to roughly 2,000, ATACMS and precision strike missiles nearly exhausted, and about a quarter of Reaper drones lost.
Aug 19, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Trump Announces Expanded Economic Campaign Against Iran
The US president announced a sharply expanded economic campaign against Iran, framed as the most severe ever applied to a state, on the premise that Tehran's economy is near a breaking point.
Aug 19, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Trump Threatens Unprecedented Economic Warfare as Iran Refuses a Deal
The American president declared that Iran's refusal to reach a deal will bring economic warfare and isolation on an unprecedented scale.
Aug 18, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Halves South Korea Exercises and Sends Last Asian Carrier to the Gulf
Trump ordered a joint US-South Korea exercise cut in half without notifying Seoul, hinting at his relationship with Kim Jong Un and at pique over Seoul declining to assist Gulf operations.
Aug 18, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
United States Sanctions ICC President Over Court's Arrest Warrants
The United States sanctioned the president of the International Criminal Court, freezing her assets and barring her from American travel, after a year in which Tokyo lobbied privately for her exemption and withheld its signature from a supporting statement to avoid antagonising Washington.
Aug 18, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Emirates Announces Total Embargo on Transactions With Iran
The Emirates announced a total embargo on trade and transactions with Iran, citing regional escalations, after accusing Tehran of striking an Emirati tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and firing missiles toward its territory.
Aug 18, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Sanctions ICC President and Senior Trial Lawyer
Washington sanctioned the court's president and a senior trial lawyer in the prosecutor's office, bringing the total under US sanctions to thirteen officials including half the bench.
Aug 18, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.A.E. Halts All Trade and Financial Transactions With Iran
The Emirati foreign ministry announced a halt to all trade and financial transactions with Iran, citing regional escalations and commitment to the integrity of the international financial system.
Aug 18, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israel Strikes Abu al-Duhur Air Base in Idlib Over Turkish Deployment
Eight Israeli airstrikes hit the disused Abu al-Duhur air base in Idlib after Syrian officials confirmed a Turkish delegation had visited the airfield to discuss rehabilitating it.
Aug 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Assesses Strikes on U.S. Assets in Europe if War Escalates
Regime insiders say Iranian forces have evaluated attacking American assets in southeastern Europe, including Bulgaria's Bezmer air base approved last month for U.S. refuelling aircraft, and targets in Cyprus, alongside plans to sever subsea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz.
Aug 18, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
US Sanctions International Criminal Court President and Senior Trial Lawyer
Washington designated the ICC's president and a senior trial lawyer for taking part in efforts to investigate or prosecute officials whose governments have not consented to the court's jurisdiction, bringing the total of sanctioned officials to at least 13.
Aug 18, 2026
Escalating
Military
Vessel Struck Exiting the Strait of Hormuz
A vessel leaving the Persian Gulf through Omani waters was hit by an unknown projectile, killing a crew member and damaging the engine room, with Omani coast guard assistance for survivors.
Aug 17, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Trump Dismisses Reports of Deteriorating Conditions Aboard USS Abraham Lincoln
At the White House the president rejected reporting on conditions aboard a nuclear carrier that has set a modern record for time at sea without a port call, attributing his account to an unnamed retired admiral.
Aug 17, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Truce Framework Expires as Trump Threatens to Strike Oman
The memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran formally lapsed after disputes over its wording, leaving no negotiated ceiling on Iran's nuclear program.
Aug 17, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Strike Saudi Vessel Near Bab al-Mandab Strait
The Houthis claimed a missile strike on a Saudi military ship and four escort vessels at the Yemeni port of Mokha near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and warned they would target Saudi forces on land and at sea.
Aug 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Declares Shift to Offensive Posture Over Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Tehran announced a shift from defensive to fully offensive posture on the day the 60-day window under its June memorandum with Washington expired, threatening a precise military strike to break the US naval blockade.
Aug 17, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Kushner Meets Netanyahu to Unblock Gaza Disarmament Road Map
Kushner and Board of Peace members flew to Jerusalem a day after meeting Hamas representatives in Egypt, carrying a Hamas list of alleged Israeli ceasefire violations and a request that disarmament begin.
Aug 17, 2026
Escalating
Military
Trump Threatens Military Strikes on Oman Over Interference in Iran Talks
The US president threatened military strikes on Oman if it obstructs American efforts to reach a settlement with Iran, in remarks reported from a phone interview.
Aug 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Drones Launched From Iran Strike Kurdistan Regional Government Leadership Sites
Two drones the KRG security agency says came from Iranian territory targeted the prime minister's personal office and the residence of the head of the region's Security and Intelligence Agency, with no casualties and no claim of responsibility.
Aug 17, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. and Iran Miss Sixty-Day Deadline for Nuclear Deal Under June Cease-Fire
The United States and Iran let the sixty-day deadline from their June cease-fire lapse without a nuclear agreement, formalising the truce's collapse in the sixth month of war.
Aug 16, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Trump Cuts U.S.-South Korea Exercises to Restart North Korea Diplomacy
Trump ordered cuts to the annual joint exercises with South Korea over the weekend, reprising the concession he used before his 2018 and 2019 summits with Kim Jong-un.
Aug 16, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Kushner Meets Hamas Leadership in Egypt on Gaza Disarmament Plan
Jared Kushner met Hamas leaders in Egypt to advance Trump's twenty-point Gaza plan, whose core requirement is stripping Hamas of its weapons.
Aug 15, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Gulf States Signal Security Diversification Away From Washington
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain have converged in frustration with U.S. management of the Iran war, and some have begun debating whether hosting large American installations still serves them.
Aug 15, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Accuses Qatar of Holding Three Captured Air Force Pilots Since March
The commander of Iran's armed forces missing persons committee wrote to the Red Cross stating that three Su-24 pilots downed by Qatari defences on 2 March survived, were captured by Qatari authorities, and have been denied contact with families or case officials.
Aug 15, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israeli Strikes on Ansar and Deir al-Zahrani Kill Nine in Southern Lebanon
Israeli strikes on Ansar near Nabatieh and later on Deir al-Zahrani killed at least nine people including three children, and Israeli forces demolished buildings in Bint Jbeil and nearby villages.
Aug 14, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Extended Carrier Deployment Strains U.S. Sustainment in the Iran War
A US aircraft carrier has been deployed more than eight and a half months supporting the war against Iran, with reported shortages of basic supplies, water contamination, plumbing failures, deck safety problems and deteriorating crew mental health.
Aug 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Navy Prepares to Relieve USS Abraham Lincoln After Nine-Month Middle East Deployment
The U.S. military is preparing to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln with the USS George Washington after the Lincoln spent more than 250 consecutive days at sea, repeatedly extended and without a significant port visit since leaving San Diego in November.
Aug 13, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Netanyahu Publicly Disparages Britain as an Islamic Republic
Israel's prime minister used a domestic broadcast platform to characterize the United Kingdom in explicitly religious and hostile terms.
Aug 13, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
US Signals Unprecedented Economic Isolation Package Against Iran
Washington's Treasury chief pre-announced a further tightening of economic measures on Iran, explicitly pairing them with the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Aug 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Ukraine Exhausts Patriot Interceptor Supply as Global Production Falls Short
Ukrainian Patriot supplies have run out this year, dropping intercept rates from more than seventy per cent to none and leaving Russian strikes on infrastructure effectively unopposed.
Aug 13, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Mojtaba Khamenei Rebuilds Iran's Senior Military and Security Command
Iran's supreme leader appointed a new Supreme National Security Council secretary, armed forces chief of staff, IRGC commander, IRGC navy commander, and Basij head in a single sweeping reorganization.
Aug 13, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Iran Publicly Claims Control of the Strait of Hormuz
A senior Iranian paramilitary commander declared through a semi official outlet that the Strait of Hormuz sits under Iranian control and management, directly contradicting the US president's claim of total American control a day earlier.
Aug 12, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Khamenei Appoints Hard-Line Veterans to Iran's Top Security Posts
Iran's supreme leader emerged from almost six months in hiding to install veteran commanders from the revolutionary generation across the security apparatus, including a former Revolutionary Guards chief at the Supreme National Security Council and a former intelligence chief over the Basij paramilitary network.
Aug 12, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Israeli Settlers Besiege Palestinian Families in Qusra as Army Withdraws
Soldiers dispersed the settlers with tear gas on Wednesday morning and left within hours, after which the attacks resumed and continued into the night.
Aug 12, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Russian Strikes on Cargo Vessels Halt Shipping From Odesa
Russia has attacked at least 50 cargo ships in two months, killing more than 30 civilians and stopping nearly all traffic through Odesa at harvest time.
Aug 12, 2026
Escalating
Military
Trump Declares Total U.S. Control Over Strait of Hormuz
The declaration frames an American naval blockade as a durable position rather than a temporary deployment, and explicitly states an intention to keep it.
Aug 12, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Trump Claims U.S. Control of Hormuz as Iranian Attacks Keep Traffic Halted
The claim of total control is contradicted by the behavior of commercial operators, who have largely stopped transiting the strait.
Aug 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Close Bab al-Mandab to Saudi Shipping and Strike Saudi Territory
Houthi forces killed six people aboard a cargo ship in the Bab al-Mandab in the week of 9 August, the first fatalities since they entered the Iran war in earnest, after striking a Saudi oil refinery at Jazan days earlier.
Aug 11, 2026
Unclear
Military
Container Ship Struck by Missile in Gulf of Oman off Pakistan
British maritime trade authorities reported an incident involving a container ship and military forces in the Gulf of Oman, initially logged as a tanker before reclassification.
Aug 10, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Pentagon Policy Chief Reaffirms Indo-Pacific Posture and Demands Allied Burden-Sharing
Speaking in Manila at the start of a Southeast Asian trip that also covers Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy said Washington is digging in rather than leaving the Indo-Pacific.
Aug 10, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Covertly Extracts Trump From Turkey Over Iranian Threat
Facing what officials assessed as a credible Iranian threat against the president on any aircraft, US officials concealed Trump in a catering cart fitted to the belly of his announced plane, moved him by car to a C-32A military jet and flew him secretly to the United Kingdom.
Aug 10, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Says Hormuz Stays Closed Until United States Lifts Blockade and Sanctions
Iran's foreign ministry said the Oman talks on safe shipping passage were separate from reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed until Washington meets conditions set out by a senior national security official.
Aug 10, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Iran Publicly Downplays New Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi Security Pact
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said Tehran had no reason to fear the new trilateral pact and read it as a shift toward regional self-reliance rather than dependence on outside powers.
Aug 9, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Netanyahu Publicly Rejects US Brokered Hamas Disarmament Plan
Netanyahu openly rejected the Board of Peace agreement to disarm Hamas in a rare public break with Trump, while quietly ordering a halt to Israeli airstrikes in Gaza after meeting Board of Peace officials.
Aug 9, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Adopts Low-Key Iran Posture as Regional Partners Break Ranks
Trump described a new low-key Iran strategy relying on Iranian inflation and insolvency rather than fresh military threats, while maintaining two carrier groups and a naval blockade that has redirected 53 commercial vessels.
Aug 9, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Says Oman Shipping-Lane Deal Near Completion While Hormuz Stays Closed
Iran's foreign minister announced that a bilateral arrangement with Oman on new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz was close to completion, while restating that full reopening depends on American concessions.
Aug 9, 2026
Escalating
Political
Iran Appoints Mohsen Rezaei to Lead Supreme National Security Council
Iran replaced the secretary of its Supreme National Security Council with a commander who led the Revolutionary Guards through the 1980s war and most recently advised the supreme leader.
Aug 9, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Israel Rejects U.S.-Backed 15-Point Gaza Disarmament Plan
Israel's prime minister told a cabinet meeting that his government rejects the 15-point document produced by the American-led Board of Peace, and that no withdrawal will occur until Hamas disarms in a way he called genuine rather than fictitious.
Aug 8, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran's New Conditions Block Expected Hormuz Reopening
Washington had spent weeks preparing to declare victory in the Iran war on the assumption Tehran would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Aug 7, 2026
Stable
Alliance
Mecca Mutual Defense Pact Signed by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed a mutual defense pact declaring that an attack on one is an attack on all. The agreement establishes no central command, no interoperability roadmap
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye Sign Mecca Joint Defence Agreement
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye signed a collective deterrence agreement in Mecca joining a Gulf state, a NATO member and the only Islamic nuclear power.
Aug 7, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan Sign Mecca Joint Defense Agreement
Three states that include two long-standing regional rivals signed a mutual defence agreement treating an attack on one as an attack on all.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Mecca Joint Deterrence Agreement Expands Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact to Include Turkey
The Saudi crown prince, Turkish president, and Pakistani prime minister signed a pact in Mecca stating that an armed attack against any one of the three shall be regarded as an attack against them all.
Aug 7, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Mecca Joint Defense Agreement Excludes Iran From Regional Security Architecture
Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed a mutual defense agreement with a ministerial committee and permanent secretariat in Saudi Arabia, built over nearly three years of talks and finalised after a war in which Iran struck Arab territory and American facilities across the Gulf.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey Sign Mecca Joint Defense Agreement
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey signed a mutual defense pact in Mecca treating an attack on one as an attack on all, the first formal regional security agreement produced by the United States-Iran war.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Senate Passes Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026
The Senate passed legislation codifying existing Russia sanctions and creating new authorities, including tariffs of up to 100 percent on third countries buying significant volumes of Russian energy and measures targeting the shadow tanker fleet.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey Sign Mecca Joint Defense Agreement
The three states signed a mutual defense pact in Mecca stipulating that an armed attack on any one is an attack on all, concluding nearly a year of negotiation.
Aug 7, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Senate Passes Russia Sanctions Bill With Tariff Authority
The Senate approved legislation targeting Russia's energy revenue by an 86 to 11 margin, authorizing tariffs of up to 100 percent on the top five purchasers of Russian oil and gas and on states that help circumvent existing sanctions.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Escalate Attacks on Saudi Shipping Through Bab el-Mandeb
The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks that killed at least 17 Saudi-backed soldiers in eastern Yemen and injured civilians, and targeted Saudi tankers transiting from Red Sea ports through Bab el-Mandeb.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan Sign Mutual Defense Pact
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a joint defence agreement under which an armed attack on any one of the three is treated as an attack on all.
Aug 6, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Mediators Doubt Iranian Diplomats Can Guarantee Hormuz Compliance
Arab mediators negotiating the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz say they fear Iranian diplomats lack the internal clout to guarantee compliance with any agreement, given pressure from hardliners in Tehran.
Aug 6, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran and Oman Near Deal Giving Tehran Oversight of Hormuz Entry
Iran said it is in the final stage of drafting a deal with Oman under which Tehran would oversee all traffic entering the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz while outbound traffic routes through Omani waters, within a 60-day framework requiring de-mining of the median lane to begin within 30 days.
Aug 6, 2026
Mixed
Military
Israel Escalates Southern Lebanon Strikes Amid Disarmament Talks
Israel intensified strikes in southern Lebanon after two of its soldiers were killed, breaking weeks of relative calm as Israeli and Lebanese delegations completed another round of US-brokered talks on disarming Hezbollah.
Aug 6, 2026
De-escalating
Cyber
Trump Denies US Munitions Depletion in Iran War
Trump denied reports of a US precision-munitions shortage arising from the Iran war and threatened long prison sentences for officials leaking stockpile data.
Aug 6, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Explosive Device Kills Two Israeli Soldiers in Southern Lebanon
An explosive device killed two Israeli soldiers and wounded four others in an area where they were operating in southern Lebanon, and an Israeli strike on Tibnin killed one person and wounded twelve.
Aug 5, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
South Korea Declines Ukrainian Request for Air Defense Systems
Zelensky appealed publicly to Seoul for air defense systems on 5 August, stating that allied air-defense missile supplies this year have fallen to roughly one-third of 2025 levels.
Aug 5, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
Pentagon Orders Defense Industry to Accelerate Munitions Production
Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg gave defense contractors 21 days to submit accelerated production and capacity-expansion plans after the Iran war emptied American interceptor and cruise-missile magazines.
Aug 5, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israel Resumes Strikes in Southern Lebanon During Rome Negotiations
Israel launched strikes in southern Lebanon and issued an evacuation order for the village of Al-Mansouri, citing an unspecified Hezbollah ceasefire violation.
Aug 5, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Iran and Oman Near Agreement on Hormuz Transit Route
Iran's foreign ministry said geographic coordinates for a Hormuz transit route have been agreed with Oman and a joint statement is in final drafting.
Aug 5, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Claim Strike on Saudi Tanker and Threaten to Widen Red Sea Blockade
The Houthis said they fired ballistic missiles at a Saudi tanker near Yanbu and threatened to pursue Saudi shipping into the northern Red Sea toward the Suez Canal, claiming eight ships struck since declaring a blockade last month.
Aug 4, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. and Iran Move Toward Hormuz Agreement Through Qatari and Omani Mediation
Qatar confirmed active indirect negotiations with draft language circulating, reversing Tehran's denial of a day earlier.
Aug 4, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Draft Agreement Circulates to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Qatari mediators confirmed that draft language for a Strait of Hormuz arrangement is circulating among the parties, and the United States Treasury secretary said a deal could be reached within a day.
Aug 4, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Qatar Confirms Indirect U.S.-Iran Mediation While Tehran Denies Direct Talks
Qatar said mediation with Iran and the United States is in progressive stages, coordinated with Oman and Pakistan, while Iran publicly denied any direct channel and said it is negotiating only with Muscat over passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Aug 4, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Domestic Support Collapses for U.S. War With Iran
Six months into the war with Iran, sixty percent of American voters oppose the military action and seventy-four percent say it has not been worth the cost, including roughly forty-three percent of Republicans.
Aug 4, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Hormuz Reopening Talks Stall Over Transit Fees as Another Ship Is Struck
Negotiations to reopen the strait bogged down over the question of fees for passage, while a further strike hit a vessel transiting the waterway.
Aug 3, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Poll Shows American Support for the Iran War Collapsing
A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 4,505 adults concluded August 3 found 50 percent expect American action in Iran to destabilize the Middle East against 17 percent expecting stability, with only 35 percent approving of the war.
Aug 3, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran and Oman Near Accord Ratifying Iranian Control of Hormuz Transit
Under the emerging arrangement, inbound vessels would transit a channel controlled by Iran near its coast and outbound traffic would use Omani waters, with a shared service fee that Tehran insists is not a toll.
Aug 2, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Israeli Strikes Spike in Gaza After Release of Trump Peace Framework
Days after the Board of Peace released a 15-point framework calling for Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal and a new Gaza administration, Israeli strikes killed 18 people on Sunday, one of the deadliest days since the October ceasefire.
Aug 2, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Cancels Threatened Escalation Against Iran After Gulf Pressure
Trump announced he had relented from a planned escalation, citing regional requests for delay and agreed parameters of a deal. Iranian officials rejected talks unless Washington returned to the earlier memorandum of understanding.
Aug 2, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran and Oman Near Arrangement on New Hormuz Shipping Route
Tehran says it is close to agreeing a new transit corridor with Oman while refusing to permit use of the southern route along the Omani coast, which it attacked to enforce.
Aug 2, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Producer Group Completes Return of Withheld Barrels With Sixth Output Increase
Oil producers and allied partners raised output for the sixth consecutive time, finishing the unwind of voluntary production cuts.
Aug 1, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Nigeria Orders Capital Market Operators to Sever Financial Ties With Iran
Nigeria's securities regulator directed capital market operators to cut or restrict financial ties with Iran and North Korea, citing terrorism-financing and money-laundering risk.
Aug 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
United States Escalation Threats Against Iran Issued and Withdrawn Within Days
The pattern of threatening a massive strike on Iran and reversing within days repeated again, with a 23 July threat called off on 27 July and a 31 July threat withdrawn the next day after the Saudi crown prince called to argue for de-escalation.
Aug 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Gulf Pressure Defers American Strikes on Iran as Hormuz Plan Advances
Regional governments exposed to Iranian retaliation persuaded Washington to hold off on a new attack while mediation on reopening the strait progressed.
Aug 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Cancels Planned Strikes on Iran Pending Hormuz Deal
The American president called off a threatened escalation against Iran, citing agreed parameters of a deal covering the strait and the nuclear file, one day after saying the United States would hit Iran hard.
Aug 1, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israel Kills Hezbollah Fighters on Ali al-Taher Ridge
Israeli forces killed several Hezbollah members overnight on a ridge six miles inside Lebanon that Israel absorbed into its occupation zone in June.
Aug 1, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Executes Coordinated Proxy Escalation Across Gulf, Suez, and Jordan
Iranian-aligned forces struck the largest Saudi oil facility, set two gas tankers alight at an Egyptian port near the Suez Canal, and fired missiles toward a base in Jordan housing American personnel.
Aug 1, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israeli Strikes Destroy Gaza Hospital Medical Stores Amid Disarmament Deal Uncertainty
Israeli aircraft destroyed two medicine warehouses serving Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah and killed two Palestinians in Gaza City.
Jul 31, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Allies Assess U.S. Heading for Strategic Defeat as Iran Consolidates Hormuz Control
In the war's sixth month Iran remains resolute under a more radical government, its nuclear and ballistic missile programs degraded but not destroyed, and the Strait of Hormuz effectively under its control, while the United States and Israel blame each other.
Jul 31, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Trump Vows Resumed Heavy Strikes on Iran to Force Negotiations
The U.S. president announced plans to resume heavy military strikes against Iran with the stated purpose of compelling the regime to negotiate, vowing to hit the country very hard.
Jul 30, 2026
Escalating
Other
CSIS Address Warns of Converging Pressures on Democratic Order
The assessment reads six forces as a single system: material disillusionment in Latin American democracies, Chinese surveillance architecture exported to Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia, technology that lets small actors disrupt large ones, AI and robotics displacing labor faster than states can absorb it, an autonomy-driven revolution in military affairs, and a power transition the PRC is managing with confidence.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Strikes Collapse Qeshm Island's Tourism and Fishing Economy
A 2,000-pound American bomb destroyed a family home in the densely populated village of Chah-Tangou on Qeshm island on July 30, killing a couple and their two-year-old son with no military facilities in the vicinity.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Mark-84 Bomb Hits Residential Area on Qeshm Island
A 2,000-pound Mark-84 bomb struck a family home in a densely populated neighbourhood on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz overnight on Thursday, killing a husband, wife and their two-year-old son, with two other children pulled alive from the rubble.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
American Strategic Ambiguity Collapses the June Iran Memorandum
The June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, intended to pause fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz for a sixty-day negotiating window, failed over its wording.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Saudi Arabia Forms Multinational Maritime Coalition After Houthi Blockade of Its Shipping
Saudi Arabia invited roughly 50 countries to a Saudi-led Red Sea maritime coalition, with 14 including Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, and Nigeria affirming support after a Thursday meeting.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Hamas Agrees to Phased Disarmament Under Trump Twenty-Point Plan
Hamas agreed to disarm in structured phases, with Israeli withdrawal sequenced against each stage of decommissioning. An International Stabilization Force and a newly constituted Palestinian police force are to take over internal security
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
United States Reconsiders Scope of Military Footprint in Kuwait
American officials are deliberating a reduction in the scope of the U.S. military presence in Kuwait as repeated Iranian strikes expose the limits of the protection the arrangement provides.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran War Widens to Egypt and Jordan as Saudi Arabia Assembles Maritime Coalition
A drone strike on Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta set two vessels alight, marking the first direct hit on Egyptian soil since the war began in February.
Jul 29, 2026
Escalating
Military
Reported Chinese MANPADS Sale to Iran Surfaces
Reporting disclosed a China-Iran contract for up to 400 QW-12 and FN-16 man-portable air defense systems worth 60 to 70 million dollars, routed through a Hong Kong registered intermediary to obscure Beijing's role.
Jul 29, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Pope Signals United States Visit Amid Sustained Tension With Washington
Pope Leo XIV said in a broadcast interview that he hopes to visit the United States soon, while acknowledging no plans are fixed.
Jul 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Drone Strike Sets Two Gas Tankers Alight at Egypt's Damietta Port
Explosions set fire to a US-owned gas storage tanker leased to Egypt's state gas company and a liquefied natural gas carrier operated by a Greek firm at the Mediterranean port of Damietta, with maritime trackers attributing the cause to drones.
Jul 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Saudi Arabia Acknowledges First Direct Strikes in the U.S.-Iran War
Saudi Arabia's defence ministry announced airstrikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, retaliating for attacks on Saudi oil facilities that no group claimed.
Jul 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Explosive Drone Strikes Israeli Vehicle on Contested Ali al-Taher Ridge
Israel said an explosive drone was launched at an engineering vehicle on the Ali al-Taher ridge about six miles inside Lebanon, causing no injuries, and attributed it to Hezbollah. The group declined to claim the operation.
Jul 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Drone Strike Hits Two Ships at Egypt's Port of Damietta
Two vessels, one a US-owned gas storage tanker, caught fire at the Port of Damietta in what Egypt assessed as a drone attack.
Jul 29, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Fires Surprise Ballistic Missile Salvo at US Forces in Jordan
Iranian ballistic missiles struck at American forces in Jordan without warning, and the American president publicly promised a hard response.
Jul 29, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Strikes US Base in Jordan as US and Saudi Aircraft Hit Militias in Iraq
Iranian ballistic missiles targeted the main American air hub in Jordan while American and Saudi aircraft struck militia logistics sites across eastern Iraq, killing at least twenty fighters and six Iranian advisers.
Jul 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Drone Strikes US-Owned Gas Tanker at Egypt's Damietta Port
A drone hit an American-owned floating gas storage vessel at Damietta on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, igniting a fire that spread to a second gas tanker. No claim of responsibility followed.
Jul 29, 2026
Escalating
Military
Saudi Arabia Joins US Strikes on Iran-Backed Militia Sites in Iraq
Riyadh moved from covert participation to declared belligerency, striking Popular Mobilisation Forces positions alongside American forces and killing at least 20 fighters.
Jul 29, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israel Approves 34 New West Bank Settlements Amid Record Settler Violence
Israel's security cabinet allocated 1.3 billion shekels in July to establish 34 new West Bank settlements, while settler killings of Palestinians in 2026 already exceed the total for all of 2025.
Jul 29, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Contracts China for Up to 400 Shoulder-Fired Air Defence Systems
Iran concluded a contract for 300 to 400 Chinese MANPADS, routed through a Hong Kong intermediary and staged for delivery from western China through Pakistan.
Jul 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Fires Multiple Ballistic Missiles at U.S. Forces During Negotiation Lull
U.S. Central Command said Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at American forces at 18:45 Eastern Time on Tuesday and that all were intercepted.
Jul 28, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Senators Reach Deal on Russian Oil Purchase Sanctions
A bipartisan group of senators announced agreement on legislation imposing penalties on countries that purchase Russian oil and energy products and extending existing Iran sanctions, clearing the way for an evening test vote.
Jul 28, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Hosts Zelensky and Netanyahu in Oval Office Doubleheader
Trump hosted Zelensky and Netanyahu separately at the White House on Tuesday, with both arriving to seek commitments and neither securing them.
Jul 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Publicly Hangs Two January Protesters in Isfahan
Iranian authorities publicly hanged two participants in January's protests at dawn in Isfahan's Shahid Alikhani Square, identified by the judiciary's news agency as Amirhossein Safari and Abolfazl Sepahi.
Jul 28, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Threatens Pickaxe Mountain Strike Absent Iran Deal
Trump said on Tuesday that talks with Iran have gone well while repeating his threat to destroy the fortified underground Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site along with bridges and power plants if Tehran does not agree terms.
Jul 28, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Ukraine Presses US for Patriot Interceptor Production Licence
Zelensky travelled to Washington seeking firm commitments on a licence for Ukrainian production of Patriot interceptors, following Trump's support for the idea earlier in the month.
Jul 28, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Netanyahu Meets Trump in Washington Amid Public Friction Over Lebanon Strikes
The Israeli prime minister travelled to Washington for talks on the future of the Iran conflict as the American president publicly criticised Israel for continuing strikes in Lebanon and ignoring a ceasefire.
Jul 27, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Holds Out for Hormuz Recognition as Fighting Pause Frays
Tehran rejected the American characterisation of a ceasefire and denied that negotiations are under way, saying its only talks are with Oman over management of the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 27, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
United States and Iran Declare Cease-Fire After Two-Week Bombing Campaign
The Trump administration announced a cease-fire following a two-week bombing campaign and Iran responded in kind, though the risk of renewed hostilities remains high.
Jul 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Drone Attack on Saudi Oil Facilities Attributed to Iran-Backed Iraqi Militias
Riyadh intercepted a number of drones launched from Iraq by Iranian-aligned militias at its oil facilities, with satellite imagery showing smoke at Abqaiq, the kingdom's most critical processing site.
Jul 27, 2026
Stable
Other
Israeli Opposition Leader Addresses Washington Three Months Before Legislative Elections
Israel's opposition leader appeared in Washington to discuss regional relationships, the war with Iran, and strains in the U.S.-Israel relationship ahead of legislative elections in the autumn.
Jul 27, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Strike Saudi East-West Pipeline Corridor to Yanbu
The Houthis said they targeted crude supply and transport sites along the corridor linking eastern Saudi fields to the Red Sea export terminal at Yanbu.
Jul 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Saudi Air Defences Destroy Iran-Linked Drones Launched From Iraq
Drones launched from Iraqi territory by Iran-aligned armed groups targeted Saudi oil facilities in the Eastern Province and the capital, and were intercepted.
Jul 26, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Cyberattacks Hit US Water Facilities Across Six States
Concurrent cyberattacks against water facilities in at least six American states in the week from July 26 prompted the federal cybersecurity agency to upgrade an advisory and urge operators to disconnect exposed operational technology from the internet.
Jul 26, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Saudi-Houthi Truce Erodes Under Escalating Cross-Border Strikes
Reciprocal attacks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have intensified to the point of threatening a truce that has held for four years.
Jul 26, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Conditions Strike Halt on Continued US Bombing Pause
Tehran set a reciprocal condition on its own de-escalation, halting attacks only for as long as the American pause holds.
Jul 26, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Trump Defers Iran Escalation Amid Munitions Depletion Debate
Washington put off a planned escalation of its campaign against Iran, with the decision shaped by both a diplomatic effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and an internal argument about declining US munitions inventories.
Jul 26, 2026
De-escalating
Military
United States Pauses Iran Strike Campaign as Hormuz Talks Resume
The United States halted its bombing campaign against Iran for a second night, framed officially as space for diplomacy but shadowed by reporting that expanded operations would draw down a diminished air defense stockpile.
Jul 25, 2026
Mixed
Military
Armed Attacks on Caspian Shipping Expose Middle Corridor Security Gap
A Ukrainian drone strike on a cargo ship carrying Iranian military shipments killed an Iranian sailor in July, following Israel's March strike on the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali.
Jul 25, 2026
Escalating
Military
Ukraine Strikes Iranian Cargo Ship in the Caspian Sea
Kyiv struck a vessel it said was carrying military equipment between Iran and Russia, without specifying the direction of travel.
Jul 24, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
UN Secretary-General to Make First Syria Visit Since Before 2011 War
Guterres will spend several days in Damascus meeting President Ahmed al-Sharaa, Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and civil society representatives, and address the new parliament. The significance runs through the person he is meeting.
Jul 24, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Taps Frozen Iranian Assets for Shipping Damages Amid 13th Night of Strikes
President Trump declared the United States would use frozen Iranian assets under US control to compensate for damage to ships and cargo, as US forces struck Iranian military command centers, drone storage, communication networks, and coastal surveillance sites for a 13th consecutive night, including targets at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island.
Jul 23, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Investigates Russian Role in Iranian Drone Strikes on CIA Gulf Facilities
Iranian drones struck CIA facilities in the Gulf, and US intelligence is now examining whether Russia contributed targeting information or drone technology. The question matters more than the damage.
Jul 23, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Iran Rejects US Cease-Fire Proposal Delivered by Iraqi Prime Minister
Iran rejected the only cease-fire offer on the table, carried to Tehran by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi after his White House visit, with Foreign Minister Araghchi dismissing mediation as pointless against what he called America's controlling outlook.
Jul 23, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Senate Democrats Demand Full US Casualty Accounting in Iran War
Twelve Democratic senators on the Armed Services Committee formally demanded that Defense Secretary Hegseth provide a full accounting of US troops killed or wounded in the Iran war, citing inconsistent Pentagon figures and disclosures that lagged press reporting.
Jul 23, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Conditions Saudi Nuclear Deal on Abraham Accords Accession
A day after the US energy secretary signed a thirty-year nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia, Trump conditioned its approval on Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords.
Jul 23, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Border Crossings on Iraq's Frontiers With Iran and Kuwait Struck
A reported U.S. airstrike hit a police rest station on the Iranian side of the Shalamcheh crossing with Iraq in Khuzestan province, killing two people and sending crowds fleeing, hours before U.S.
Jul 23, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
US House Passes Second War Powers Resolution on Iran Conflict
The House voted 214-208 for a second war powers resolution directing Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from the Iran conflict, with four Republicans joining all Democrats present.
Jul 23, 2026
Escalating
Military
Trump Threatens Iran With Punishment for Houthi Tanker Attacks
President Trump said the U.S. would hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks after the group fired on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, threatening military punishment against both Tehran and the Houthis.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Saudi Arabia and United States Sign Civilian Nuclear Agreement
Saudi Arabia and the United States signed a civilian nuclear agreement on 22 July after years of patient Saudi negotiation that deliberately excluded Moscow and Beijing as alternatives.
Jul 22, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Shapiro Testimony Maps Post-War Constraints on Abraham Accords Expansion
Testimony to a House subcommittee assessed that the Abraham Accords bilateral relationships have held through three years of regional stress, including unprecedented Israeli air defence deployment to the United Arab Emirates during the Iran war.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Agreement Opens Path to Saudi Enrichment
A thirty-year agreement announced on July 22 would open Saudi nuclear infrastructure to American companies while leaving room for enrichment on Saudi soil.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US Announces Saudi Civil Nuclear Deal Without Enrichment Bar
The Trump administration announced a 123 agreement on July 22 allowing exports of US nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia, departing from the enrichment restrictions and Additional Protocol safeguards Washington has required of past partners including the UAE in 2009.
Jul 22, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
U.S. Signs Saudi Civil Nuclear Deal Then Adds Normalization Condition
The U.S. energy secretary and Saudi energy minister signed an agreement covering reactors and technology transfer, reportedly permitting enrichment on Saudi soil in a U.S.-built black-boxed facility and containing no reference to Israel or normalization.
Jul 22, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
US-Saudi Civil Nuclear Agreement Signed Then Conditioned on Abraham Accords
The US and Saudi Arabia signed a bilateral agreement founding civil nuclear cooperation, with reports it could eventually permit Saudi uranium enrichment, triggering proliferation alarm in Washington and Israel.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Strike Saudi Tankers, Extending War to Bab el-Mandeb Chokepoint
Houthi missile and drone strikes hit the Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla near Jizan, enforcing the group's declared naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, which had been rerouting millions of barrels daily by pipeline to the Red Sea to bypass Iran's Hormuz blockade.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Other
UAE Launches Fujairah Port Expansion to Bypass Strait of Hormuz
Dubai-based DP World, which handles about 10 percent of global container traffic, announced a deal with the UAE to develop two new shipping terminals at Fujairah on the Indian Ocean coast, expanding its container capacity roughly 13 percent and reducing dependence on Jebel Ali inside the Gulf, where activity has collapsed during the war.
Jul 22, 2026
Stable
Other
Trump Attends Dover Transfer for Four Servicemembers Killed in Iran War
President Trump attended the dignified transfer at Dover Air Force Base for four U.S. servicemembers killed in the Middle East during the war with Iran.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Saudi Civilian Nuclear Agreement Expected Under 123 Framework
The Trump administration is expected to announce a 123 Agreement with Saudi Arabia that could lead to the kingdom enriching its own reactor fuel, breaking from the UAE Gold Standard in which the region's only prior signatory renounced fuel production and accepted intrusive inspections.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Trump Approves Civilian Nuclear Agreement With Saudi Arabia
President Trump formally approved a landmark agreement to provide Saudi Arabia with a civilian nuclear program, a long-sought Saudi objective.
Jul 21, 2026
Escalating
Military
US War on Iran Stalls as Costs Mount and Hormuz Stays Shut
Nearly six months into the war, the United States has achieved none of its mutable objectives despite bombing a claimed 13,000 targets and killing Iran's supreme leader at the outset, while Iran retains its grip on the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis threaten the Red Sea.
Jul 21, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
ASEAN Ministers Demand Cessation of U.S.-Iran War and Hormuz Restoration
The 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting closed with a joint statement of serious concern over renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, demanding utmost restraint, a complete cessation across all Middle East fronts, and restoration of safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, on which Asia depends for around 60 percent of its crude imports.
Jul 21, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Pentagon Puts Iran War Cost at $37.5 Billion Amid Collapsing Support
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a contentious Senate hearing the Iran war has cost $37.5 billion and requested an $88 billion supplemental, as polling showed just 28 percent of Americans consider the war worth fighting and 52 percent believe U.S. global leadership has weakened under Trump.
Jul 21, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
U.S. Agrees to Saudi Civilian Nuclear Program With Possible Enrichment
The United States agreed to provide Saudi Arabia with a civilian nuclear program that could potentially include uranium enrichment on the kingdom's own territory.
Jul 21, 2026
De-escalating
Other
New York Mayor Retracts Pledge to Arrest Netanyahu on ICC Warrant
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, after reviewing every legal avenue, conceded his city cannot enforce the ICC arrest warrant against Benjamin Netanyahu and instead called on the federal government to join the court and execute it, declaring the Israeli prime minister not welcome ahead of his expected September UN General Assembly visit.
Jul 21, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Completes Eleventh Consecutive Day of Strikes on Iranian Maritime Capabilities
US Central Command said it completed its eleventh straight day of strikes on Iran, hitting military operations centers, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure.
Jul 21, 2026
De-escalating
Other
White House Requests $87.6 Billion in Iran War Funding From Congress
The White House asked Congress to approve $87.6 billion, mostly for urgent needs connected with the war in Iran, with Defense Secretary Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Caine set to defend the request before the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Jul 21, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Lebanese Army Deploys in Zawtar al-Gharbiya as Israel Withdraws Under Pilot Plan
The Lebanese army deployed into Zawtar al-Gharbiya after Israeli forces withdrew, the first of three pilot zones under a U.S.-brokered phased arrangement transferring occupied southern areas back to Beirut, with joint Israeli-American-Lebanese military coordination overseeing implementation.
Jul 21, 2026
Stable
Legal
Burnham Scraps Electricity VAT in First Policy Move
On his second day in office, Prime Minister Andy Burnham eliminated value added tax on electricity, funded by scrapping the planned national digital ID program, signaling a cost-of-living-first agenda.
Jul 21, 2026
Stable
Other
Pope Leo XIV Publishes Nuclear Disarmament Appeal
Pope Leo XIV published a book calling for nuclear disarmament and warning that the current arms race has obscured decades of de-escalation, extending his role as the most prominent moral critic of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Bab el-Mandeb Closure on Iranian Instruction
The Houthis announced closure of Bab el-Mandeb by radio and email, executing an Iranian instruction issued a week earlier to shut the route if Washington struck Iranian power infrastructure.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Red Sea Blockade of Saudi Shipping
The Houthis announced a blockade against Saudi Arabia on 20 July, with attacks on Saudi shipping already reported, effectively closing both the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the approach to Suez.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes Damage Nine U.S. Military Sites Across the Middle East
In the two weeks since the ceasefire broke down, Iranian missile and drone strikes hit nine U.S. locations across Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq, destroying hangars, drone shelters, radar systems, and living quarters.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Middle Corridor Expansion Advances Without a Security Framework
Corridor states layered new connectivity agreements, a Kazakhstan-Georgia e-Permit deal on July 20, a five-country single transit document signed in Astana in May, and the June inauguration of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, onto Georgia's state-led takeover of the Anaklia port after a Chinese consortium's withdrawal.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Maritime Blockade of Saudi Arabia
A Houthi military spokesperson declared a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, extending the group's interdiction campaign beyond Israel-linked shipping to the Gulf's largest oil exporter as the US-Iran war continues.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Maritime Blockade on Saudi Arabia
The Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia on Monday, days after attacking Abha airport in the first direct strike on Saudi soil since early 2022, following a dispute over an Iranian plane blocked from landing in Sanaa after Khamenei's funeral.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Naval Blockade of Saudi Arabia
The Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi shipping between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, days after striking Abha airport in retaliation for the bombing of Sanaa airport.
Jul 20, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Trump Rules Out Netanyahu Arrest in U.S. Over ICC Warrant
President Trump declared that Benjamin Netanyahu would not be arrested in any way, shape or form in the United States, directly rebuffing New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who has said he is exploring whether he can arrest the Israeli prime minister on the International Criminal Court warrant during his September U.N.
Jul 20, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Strikes U.S. Forces Across Four Host Countries
Iranian forces fired on Kuwait and Bahrain overnight and on Monday, extending a campaign that has targeted U.S. military positions in at least four countries and killed at least three American service members since Friday, including a soldier struck by drone debris in Iraq and a missing soldier believed dead after the Jordan base attack.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Political
Hamas Elects Khalil al-Hayya as Political Chief
Hamas ended a nearly two-year leadership vacuum by electing Khalil al-Hayya, the group's chief negotiator with Israel and the Trump administration, over former leader Khaled Meshal.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Red Sea Blockade on Saudi Arabia After Truce Collapse
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in response to what the group called a continued Saudi siege of Yemen, days after a four-year Saudi-Houthi truce collapsed over a Saudi strike on Sana airport meant to block an Iranian plane.
Jul 20, 2026
Stable
Legal
US Representative Introduces Security Sector Governance Compacts Act
Rep. Sara Jacobs introduced legislation requiring the secretary of state to build a Security Sector Governance Index measuring partner countries' corruption, civilian oversight, military involvement in politics and commerce
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Hormuz Tanker Strikes Lift Oil Prices as Mediators Circulate Proposals
Two tankers exploded attempting the alternate Hormuz route Iran has warned against, with a vessel burning off Oman's coast, pushing Brent crude to a one-month high and US gasoline back above four dollars a gallon.
Jul 20, 2026
Mixed
Military
Ninth Night of US Strikes Hits Iranian Cities as IRGC Locks Down Hormuz
US Central Command launched a new wave of strikes for the ninth consecutive night, hitting military sites and communications networks in cities including Tabriz, Chabahar, Konarak, Bandar Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini.
Jul 19, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Escalation Against Jordan Exposes Its Dependence on U.S. Patronage
Iran has stepped up strikes on U.S. forces in Jordan, hitting fuel tanks at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, killing American soldiers, and forcing Jordanian air defenses to down three missiles on Sunday, yet Amman refuses to limit the nearly 4,000 U.S. troops it hosts.
Jul 19, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Rubio Holds Door Open to Iran Diplomacy While Demanding Burden-Sharing
Secretary of State Rubio said Washington remains open to diplomacy with Iran and that Tehran is signaling interest in negotiating directly and through mediators, even as US forces ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes and Iranian attacks stopped two tankers using the alternate route near Oman's coast.
Jul 19, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US-Iran War Escalates to Water Infrastructure and Port Blockade
The US-Iran war has escalated past military targets: both sides have struck water and desalination plants, risking power and water loss for tens of thousands in the Gulf summer heat, while the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by both parties and Washington has reinstated a blockade of Iranian ports.
Jul 19, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Surges Warplanes to Middle East for Expanded Strikes on Iran
The United States ordered additional F-16 fighters from Germany, stealth F-35s from Britain and more aerial refueling aircraft to the Middle East, with some tankers to be stationed at Israeli Air Force bases.
Jul 18, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran War Escalates Beyond Strait of Hormuz
Tit-for-tat strikes produced the first U.S. fatalities in months, a reimposed U.S. naval blockade on Iran, and expanding target sets including civilian infrastructure.
Jul 18, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Missile and Drone Attack Kills Two US Soldiers in Jordan
The Pentagon identified two soldiers, 1Lt Tyler Feehan and Pvt Isabella Gonzales, killed in Jordan while defending against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks, deaths first announced by Central Command on Saturday.
Jul 18, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Makes Jordan the Casualty Front of Its Deterrence Campaign
Iran stepped up missile and drone attacks on US forces stationed in Jordan, with a weekend strike killing American servicemembers.
Jul 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Troop Deaths Mount Across Iraq and Jordan as Ceasefire Unravels
Central Command confirmed a servicemember killed in northern Iraq during controlled detonation of a downed Iranian drone, a day after two soldiers died in an Iranian missile barrage in Jordan, with remains found believed to be the missing third.
Jul 18, 2026
Stable
Military
US Servicemember Killed in Iraq Handling Downed Iranian Drone
A US servicemember died in northern Iraq during a controlled detonation of a downed Iranian one-way attack drone, Central Command said, as the troop death toll from Iranian missile strikes in Jordan was expected to rise.
Jul 18, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Widens Gulf Attacks as US War Deaths Reach 16
After a seventh straight night of US strikes, Iran struck across the Gulf: killing two US soldiers in Jordan with one missing, hitting Camp Arifjan support facilities and a radar at Ali Al Salem in Kuwait, targeting Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, and apparently triggering Saudi Arabia's first missile alerts in three months.
Jul 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Sever Hormozgan Transport Links as Iranian Civilian Strain Deepens
Overnight US strikes damaged a tunnel and three bridges in Hormozgan Province, cutting key links between the Strait of Hormuz coast and the rest of Iran, with additional strikes reported in Ahvaz, Lar, Darab, and on a desalination plant in Jask.
Jul 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Bombing Fails to Break Iran's Hormuz Grip as Infrastructure Strikes Widen
Overnight US strikes damaged bridges and hit a desalination plant in Iran's Jask region, leaving about 10,000 people without water, while Iran struck a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant and Jordan intercepted 10 Iranian ballistic missiles.
Jul 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Strike on Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base Kills Three U.S. Soldiers
An Iranian strike at the Muwaffaq Salti base in Azraq killed three American soldiers, part of a campaign of hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones fired at Jordan since February.
Jul 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes on U.S. Bases in Jordan Drive Mounting American Casualties
Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan and other regional countries have wounded roughly 100 American troops since early July, with a Friday strike killing three soldiers and nearly a dozen wounded severely enough for medevac to Germany.
Jul 17, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Missile Strike on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base Kills Two US Servicemembers
An Iranian missile strike on Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base killed two US servicemembers, likely delivered by the Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile, one of Tehran's most effective systems.
Jul 17, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Missile Strikes Hit U.S. Troop Housing at Jordanian Air Base
Iranian missile strikes hit Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, striking U.S. troop housing in one of three separate attacks on the base within 24 hours.
Jul 17, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Missile Strike Kills Two U.S. Soldiers at Jordan Air Base
An Iranian ballistic missile struck prefabricated housing units at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, killing two U.S. servicemembers where they lived and slept, one of three separate attacks in the same wave.
Jul 17, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Concentrates Missile Campaign on US Bases in Jordan
Iranian forces attacked US positions in Jordan four times in five days, striking King Faisal Air Base, a helicopter base in the east, and Muwaffaq Salti Air Base twice, killing two US soldiers, wounding dozens, and damaging a significant number of Blackhawk helicopters.
Jul 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Missile Barrage Kills Two US Soldiers as War Toll Reaches 16
Iranian ballistic missiles penetrated US and Jordanian air defenses at a base in Jordan, killing two US service members and bringing American military deaths since the war began on February 28 to 16, with more than 400 wounded.
Jul 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Missile Attack on Jordan Air Base Kills Two US Servicemembers
An Iranian attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan killed two US servicemembers, left one missing, and wounded several others, escalating a weeklong exchange in which both sides have struck a widening array of targets.
Jul 17, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
US-Spain Tensions Simmer Over Defense Spending and Iran War Access
Spain's refusal to commit to NATO's 5 percent GDP defense-spending target, and its earlier denial of bases and airspace for the US attack on Iran, keep drawing Trump's trade-reprisal threats, including an instruction at the Ankara summit to cut off all trade with Spain.
Jul 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Southern Iranian Transport Infrastructure as Hormuz War Expands
US forces struck at least a dozen bridges, the Bandar Abbas railway station, and a Chabahar port control tower across southern Iran, extending the campaign from military targets toward the logistics spine connecting Iran's ports to its interior.
Jul 16, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Strikes Iranian Bridges to Isolate Bandar Abbas
US forces struck multiple bridges in Iran to cut supply routes feeding Bandar Abbas, the port city and naval base near the Strait of Hormuz that anchors Iran's ability to threaten the waterway.
Jul 16, 2026
Escalating
Military
Syria Intercepts Iraq-Route Weapons Shipment Bound for Hezbollah
Syrian authorities seized a shipment of advanced weapons and missiles smuggled across the Iraqi border, with preliminary investigation indicating Hezbollah as the intended recipient.
Jul 16, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran Fighting Reaches Tehran as Strait of Hormuz Standoff Deepens
On the sixth consecutive day of renewed fighting, American strikes hit areas around Tehran for the first time in this round and fired on a tanker sailing toward Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal, while Iran struck at Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait and a drone attack hit near Erbil.
Jul 16, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Expands Strike Targets Across Iran on Sixth Day of Hormuz War
US strikes reached across Iran, hitting Semnan Airport near missile-testing and space-launch facilities, the Bandar Abbas naval base, cruise missile sites on Greater Tunb, and locations in Khuzestan, Sistan and Baluchestan, and Markazi provinces, while the resumed port blockade disabled a tenth ship since April.
Jul 16, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Strikes US Bases in Gulf States as US Widens Hormuz Campaign
Iran launched drone and missile attacks on US military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain while US forces ran a seven-hour wave of strikes on Iranian command centers, air defense sites, and coastal surveillance facilities including Bandar Abbas and Greater Tunb Island.
Jul 15, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Reinstated U.S. Naval Blockade Halts Iranian Crude Exports From Persian Gulf
Washington reinstated a naval blockade in mid-July that has stopped Iranian crude shipments leaving the Persian Gulf. Offshore floating storage that allowed continued deliveries to China is now being drawn down
Jul 15, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Launches Campaign to Systematically Disable the International Criminal Court
The U.S. secretary of state announced a campaign to systematically disable the International Criminal Court, promising expanded sanctions against the court and anyone affiliated with it, visa revocations and travel bans on staff and perceived supporters, and diplomatic pressure on other states to stop cooperating.
Jul 15, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
Israel Passes Judicial Oversight and Draft Exemption Laws Before Election
In its last week before the October 27 election recess, Netanyahu's coalition enacted a package of contested laws: the attorney general's legal opinions lose binding force from January 2027 and the government gains power to choose its own legal representation, Torah study becomes a Basic Law value strengthening ultra-Orthodox claims against conscription, arrests of draft evaders are frozen for four months, and broadcast regulation is restructured in ways critics say favor pro-Netanyahu outlets.
Jul 15, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
India Bars Its Seafarers From Strait of Hormuz Voyages
India's Directorate General of Shipping ordered shipowners, managers, and recruiters not to deploy Indian seafarers on voyages through the Strait of Hormuz after two Indian sailors were killed in vessel attacks amid renewed regional fighting.
Jul 15, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Over 100 House Democrats Back Measure Stripping Israel Military Aid
More than 100 House Democrats voted for a measure to eliminate over $3 billion in US military financing to Israel. The visible text does not state the measure's fate, but the scale of Democratic support is the signal
Jul 15, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Hormuz Control Claim Undercut by Falling Transit Traffic
President Trump asserted at the start of the week that the Strait of Hormuz was open and under US control. By Wednesday, ship-tracking data from Kpler showed traffic dropping as transit risks deepened amid the US-Iran confrontation.
Jul 15, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Disables Tanker Bound for Kharg Island in Blockade Enforcement
US aircraft fired Hellfire missiles into the smokestack of the Curaçao-flagged M/T Belma as it approached Iran's Kharg Island export terminal, the first strike on a commercial vessel since the blockade was reimposed.
Jul 15, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Ghalibaf Keeps Negotiation Door Open Amid Iranian Elite Infighting
Brig. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's lead negotiator, issued a nationally televised statement declaring Iran would defend itself on the battlefield and at the negotiating table alike
Jul 15, 2026
Stable
Cyber
Tehran Billboard Depicts Trump in Coffin as Vengeance Propaganda Escalates
Iranian authorities mounted a billboard in central Tehran's Enghelab Square showing Trump's body in an open black coffin, splattered with graffiti reading We Will Kill Trump in Persian and English, in memory of Minab's children, and honoring Khamenei as a martyr.
Jul 15, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Iranian Missile Sites on Disputed Greater Tunb Island
US forces attacked Iranian cruise missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb, part of the island chain Iran uses to project drones, antiship missiles, and fast-attack boats over the Hormuz shipping lanes.
Jul 15, 2026
Mixed
Military
US Strikes Iranian Coastal Defenses as Iran Hits US Targets in Three Gulf States
US Central Command launched a 90-minute strike wave against Iranian coastal defense systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites, including on Greater Tunb Island, following seven hours of strikes on dozens of targets the previous day and the reimposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Reimposes Blockade and Oil Ban to Break Iran's Hormuz Grip
The United States reimposed its naval blockade on Iran and revoked the regime's right to sell oil, an economic strangulation strategy aimed at forcing Tehran to relinquish its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 14, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
US-Iran Truce Collapses Over Contested Strait of Hormuz Terms
The truce reached last month unraveled as Tehran and Washington enforced incompatible readings of paragraph five, the clause governing the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 14, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Vance Accuses Israeli Government Elements of Manipulating US Opinion on Iran War
Vice President JD Vance publicly accused elements of the Israeli government of being behind a campaign to shape American public opinion toward keeping the war in Iran going.
Jul 14, 2026
Stable
Military
Trump Threatens Strikes on Iranian Power Plants and Bridges
Trump publicly threatened to knock out all of Iran's power plants and bridges within a week unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table, as US-Iran strike exchanges entered a fifth consecutive day.
Jul 14, 2026
Stable
Sanctions
US Abandons Proposed 20 Percent Hormuz Cargo Fee Within a Day
Trump abandoned the proposed 20 percent reimbursement fee on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz one day after announcing it with the reinstated blockade, saying Gulf states would instead make trade and investment deals into the United States.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
US-Iran Escalation Renews Global Oil, Shipping and Aviation Disruption
US warplanes struck hundreds of Iranian targets over the past week while Iran resumed attacks on Hormuz shipping and US Gulf allies, and Trump reinstated the naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Iran Tracked US Military Phones via SS7 Exploits
Mobile Surveillance Monitor data released Tuesday indicates Iranian cyber actors flooded Middle East telecom networks with SS7 location requests at the outset of the February war, tracking phones of US military personnel and contractors, including in Bahrain.
Jul 14, 2026
Stable
Other
Graham's Death Clouds Russia Sanctions Bill as Trump Signals Conditional Support
Senator Lindsey Graham died within days of announcing in Kyiv that the White House had agreed to support his Russia sanctions bill, the yearslong effort to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy that once drew 85 Senate cosponsors before repeatedly stalling on Trump's resistance.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes on Supertankers Halt Hormuz Shuttle-Run Operations
Iran attacked three crude oil supertankers overnight, grinding to a halt the shuttle-run operations that ferried crude through the Strait of Hormuz and served as one of the last functioning lifelines for the global energy market.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Enter US-Iran War With Strikes on Saudi Arabia
The Houthis announced their entry into the US-Iran war with threats and reprisal strikes on Saudi Arabia, breaking four years of tenuous peace with Riyadh as CENTCOM restarted its blockade of Iranian shipping after three days of airstrikes.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Hosts Iraq's Zaidi After US Veto Shaped His Unelected Rise
Trump welcomed Iraqi Prime Minister Zaidi to the White House with congratulations on an election victory that never happened: Zaidi, a businessman with no electoral background, became prime minister after Trump threatened in January to end support for Iraq if the victorious Shiite bloc installed Maliki, forcing a constitutional deadlock resolved by a consensus technocrat.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israeli Strike on Jabaliya Police Post Kills Seven Amid Ceasefire Erosion
Four Israeli missiles hit a police station in Jabaliya, killing six members of the Hamas-run force including the station director, whom Israel identified as head of military security for Hamas's Central Jabaliya Battalion, plus one civilian.
Jul 14, 2026
Mixed
Military
US Reimposes Iran Blockade and Drops Hormuz Fee Plan as Attacks Spread
The US military reimposed its blockade of Iranian ports and struck coastal defense systems, missile and drone sites, and maritime capabilities after Iranian attacks on commercial ships, deploying at least 19 warships including two carriers in the Arabian Sea.
Jul 14, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Tanker Strike Kills Indian Sailor, Prompting Formal Protest From Delhi
Iran struck two UAE-registered tankers transiting the strait near Oman on the US-overseen route rather than Iranian-approved lanes, killing one Indian sailor and injuring ten of the thirty Indian crew aboard.
Jul 14, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Israel and Lebanon Open Rome Talks on Ceasefire and Withdrawal
Israeli and Lebanese officials met at the US Embassy in Rome for two days of mediated talks aimed at implementing the June 26 preliminary agreement, which conditions Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon on Hezbollah's disarmament and hands recovered areas to the Lebanese Armed Forces.
Jul 14, 2026
De-escalating
Other
House Democrats Split Over Vote to Eliminate US Aid to Israel
Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries announced he will oppose an amendment eliminating all 3.3 billion dollars in annual US aid to Israel, but will not impose a party position, freeing dozens of Democrats to vote for the cutoff.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Macron Stages Bastille Day Parade as Showcase of European Defense Independence
France used its Bastille Day parade to project European unity and military might, with Macron explicitly framing the display as an argument for European defense independence from the United States.
Jul 14, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Macron Showcases Coalition of the Willing at Bastille Day Amid Hormuz Paralysis
Macron gathered two dozen leaders at the Bastille Day parade, which featured nearly 500 troops from 35 coalition-of-the-willing countries, the France- and Britain-led force meant to secure Ukraine after any cease-fire, in a choreographed display of European resolve to cut loose from Trump's America.
Jul 13, 2026
Escalating
Military
Rival Transit Fee Regimes Replace Free Passage in the Strait of Hormuz
After the July ceasefire collapsed, Iran attacked ships transiting routes Tehran had not approved, the United States resumed bombardment, and Washington declared it would keep Hormuz open while charging transiting cargo a twenty percent protection fee.
Jul 13, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
United States Launches Campaign to Disable the International Criminal Court
The American Secretary of State announced a sweeping campaign to systematically disable the court's ability to operate, including pressure on states receiving American military or other support to reject its authority.
Jul 13, 2026
Escalating
Military
Saudi Strike on Sanaa Airport Triggers Houthi Blockade Declaration
Saudi Arabia struck Sanaa International Airport on July 13 after Ansar Allah welcomed the first Iranian commercial flight to Sanaa in a decade and refused demands it not return.
Jul 13, 2026
Mixed
Military
US Reinstates Hormuz Naval Blockade After Ceasefire Collapse
The United States announced it will reinstate the naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz after the June ceasefire with Iran collapsed, having already scrapped a proposed 20 percent escort payment scheme.
Jul 13, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Threatens Red Sea Expansion as Houthis Warn of Bab el-Mandeb Closure
Iran warned its campaign against global energy markets could expand from Hormuz to the Red Sea if US attacks continue, as the Houthis announced a ban on Israel-linked ships and politburo member Mohammad al-Farah warned Bab el-Mandeb would be closed if escalation continues.
Jul 13, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Strike Abha Airport in Largest Attack on Saudi Arabia in Four Years
Houthi forces launched missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia's Abha International Airport, their largest attack on the kingdom in four years, framed as retaliation for a Saudi strike earlier that day on Sanaa International Airport intended to prevent an Iranian plane carrying Houthi officials from landing.
Jul 13, 2026
Stable
Sanctions
Hormuz Fee Proposal Rattles Shipping Markets
Trump's proposed 20 percent fee on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz stirred alarm among shipping operators: charged on cargo value it would add about 16 dollars per barrel against a 10 dollar baseline freight cost, more than doubling oil transport costs and adding over 30 million dollars per large tanker.
Jul 13, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Launches Campaign to Dismantle the International Criminal Court
The State Department announced the United States will systematically disable the International Criminal Court, with Rubio vowing to dismantle it brick by brick and working the phones to foreign counterparts to build a coalition against it.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Reimposes Iran Blockade and Claims Hormuz Toll
Trump declared the United States the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz, reinstating the naval blockade of Iranian ports and announcing a 20 percent toll on all cargo transiting the strait.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Israeli Plot to Install Ahmadinejad in Post-Regime Iran Revealed
Media reports revealed that Israel's Mossad spent years courting former Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to lead a post-Islamic Republic government, with Mossad chief David Barnea meeting him in Budapest and operatives paying his housing and travel.
Jul 13, 2026
Mixed
Military
Airstrike on Sana Airport Shatters Yemen De-escalation
Yemen's internationally recognized government, which depends on Saudi military support, said it bombed Sana's airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing, while the Houthis blamed Saudi Arabia directly and declared the de-escalation phase over.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Reimposes Iran Blockade as Hormuz Ceasefire Collapses
The June 18 U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding collapsed after Iran attacked merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and declared the waterway closed, prompting Trump to reimpose the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil, resume airstrikes on Iranian bases and bridges, and threaten a 20 percent U.S. toll on strait cargo.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
UK Proscribes IRGC After Attributing European Attack Wave to Qods Force
The UK government banned Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iran-backed proxy group IMCR after attributing seven claimed attacks on Jewish sites in Britain to the group, with the Qods Force assessed as almost certainly directing IMCR operations across Europe.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Iranian Hard-Liners Call for Revenge Against Trump After Khamenei's Killing
Officials and clerics close to Iran's government escalated threats against Trump to avenge Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's killing, after a rare statement from his son and successor Mojtaba Khamenei pledging revenge for the two wars' martyrs.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Expands Strikes on Iran After Tehran Declares Hormuz Closed
The United States struck additional military targets in Iran after Tehran defied American demands to publicly declare the Strait of Hormuz open and instead declared the strait closed.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Strikes US Bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain as Hormuz Truce Collapses
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps launched missile and drone strikes at US military bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, claiming hits on missile, drone, and fuel facilities, as the United States and Iran traded heavy airstrikes for consecutive days.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Strikes Iranian Air Defenses as IRGC Hits Gulf Bases
U.S. forces struck dozens of Iranian military targets including air-defence systems, coastal radar sites and missile and drone capabilities, killing one person in Khuzestan province, after hitting 140 targets the previous night.
Jul 12, 2026
Escalating
Military
First U.S. Combat Use of Sea Drones Against Iranian Naval Facility
Three American drone boats penetrated an Iranian port and destroyed a submarine and ship maintenance facility on Sunday, marking the first combat employment of sea drones by U.S. forces.
Jul 12, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Launches New Strike Wave Against Iran as Diplomacy Stalls
The U.S. military launched another wave of strikes against Iran to degrade its ability to attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, after hitting more than 300 Iranian military targets over three nights.
Jul 12, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Third Round of Strikes After Iran Closes Hormuz and Hits Container Ship
Iran's IRGC struck a container ship it said was on an unapproved route and declared Hormuz closed until the end of US interference, drawing a third round of US strikes in a week.
Jul 11, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Death of Senator Lindsey Graham Removes Israel's Leading US Senate Advocate
Lindsey Graham, the Republican senator who championed Israel through the Gaza and Iran wars and worked to broker US-backed Israeli-Saudi normalization, died Saturday.
Jul 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
Hormuz Ship Attack Sustains Oil Premium and Transit Collapse
An Iranian attack on a commercial vessel in Omani waters triggered new US strikes and kept oil markets primed for volatility, with Brent closing near 76 dollars, about 5 percent above prewar levels, and daily transits down from more than 130 ships to 22.
Jul 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Strikes Iran After IRGC Attack on M/V GFS Galaxy
The IRGC attacked the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving a crew member missing, and the US answered with its third round of strikes in a week.
Jul 10, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Gulf Commons Proposal Floated for Shared Strait of Hormuz Administration
As the US-Iran war keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation proposed treating the Gulf as a shared regional commons administered by all eight littoral states, funded by a nominal fee on oil tankers.
Jul 10, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Trump Lifts CAATSA Sanctions on Turkey, Softening Russia Arms Deterrent
At the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump announced he would reopen F-35 sales to Turkey and lift the CAATSA sanctions imposed over its S-400 purchase.
Jul 10, 2026
Escalating
Legal
DOJ Subpoenas New York Times Reporters Over Air Force One Coverage
The Justice Department issued grand-jury subpoenas to four New York Times journalists, some delivered by agents at reporters' homes, after they reported on security deficiencies in Trump's Qatari-donated Air Force One.
Jul 10, 2026
Mixed
Military
Emboldened Iranian Leadership Escalates Hormuz Standoff After Khamenei Funeral
Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's funeral, Iran's hard-line successor leadership, buoyed by massive crowds, escalated attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, striking three vessels on a southern route and provoking US strikes on more than 170 sites deeper into Iranian territory.
Jul 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Oman-Malacca Model Advanced as Hormuz Fee Compromise
Oman, working with British lawyers, developed a voluntary navigational-fee scheme for the Strait of Hormuz modeled on the Strait of Malacca cooperative mechanism, offered to Tehran as an alternative to the compulsory, Iran-controlled tolls the IRGC favors.
Jul 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
US Officials Acknowledge Iran Nuclear Deal Increasingly Unlikely
Senior Trump administration officials told reporters on Friday that a nuclear deal with Iran is growing increasingly unlikely through peace talks, a rare public acknowledgment of pessimism about the negotiating track.
Jul 10, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Declares US-Iran Ceasefire Over While Agreeing to Continued Talks
Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran no longer in effect while accepting Tehran's request to continue talks, capping a week in which Iranian forces attacked three Qatari and Saudi tankers, the United States struck Iranian sites, and Iran hit US military facilities in Gulf states.
Jul 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Declares Iran Cease-Fire Over as Regional Mediators Push New Talks
After Iranian strikes on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on July 7 triggered U.S. retaliation, both sides exchanged fire through the week, with Tehran hitting U.S. facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar and Washington striking air defense, coastal surveillance, missile and drone storage, naval, and logistics assets along Iran's coastline.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Iranian Hard-Liners Press to Sustain War Amid Post-Khamenei Succession Flux
Red vengeance flags at Ali Khamenei's weeklong funeral signaled a hard-line push to keep fighting the United States as Iran's decapitated leadership sorts itself out.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Mojtaba Khamenei Stays Absent Through Funeral, Deepening Iran's Leadership Void
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's weeklong funeral concluded Thursday with his burial in Mashhad, and his son and successor Mojtaba Khamenei again failed to appear, unseen in public since his March appointment despite injuries from the strike that killed his father.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles at Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base
Iran's military said it fired ballistic missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, a Jordanian facility hosting a U.S. Air Force hub and nearly 4,000 American troops. Jordan said it intercepted eight missiles with no casualties or damage.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Russian Budget Deficit Deepens as Iran War Oil Windfall Fades
Russia's Finance Ministry reported a first-half deficit of $75 billion, more than $30 billion worse than the same period of 2025, with 55 percent of annual budgeted spending already consumed.
Jul 9, 2026
Escalating
Political
Abbas Decrees First Palestinian Parliamentary Elections in Two Decades
Mahmoud Abbas set Palestinian parliamentary elections for November 28 across the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem, the first such vote since 2006.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Khamenei Burial Proceeds Amid US Strikes and Hormuz Escalation
Khamenei's funeral procession in Mashhad started roughly eight hours late as Iranian officials said US forces struck railway bridges on the Tehran to Mashhad route.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Khamenei Buried in Mashhad as New Supreme Leader Stays Out of Sight
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed with several family members in an Israeli strike on his Tehran residence on 28 February, was buried at the Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad before massive crowds.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Italy Expels Two Russian Military Attaches Over Espionage
The Italian government expelled two military attaches at the Russian Embassy in Rome who were allegedly involved in espionage activities, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani announced.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Disrupt Khamenei Funeral as Ceasefire Collapses
US forces reportedly struck two railway bridges on the Tehran to Mashhad line overnight, delaying the final stage of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's funeral by eight hours as Washington and Tehran traded strikes for a second consecutive night.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Damage Iranian Rail and Port Nodes on Eurasian Transit Corridors
US missile strikes hit the Agh Tekeh Khan railway bridge near Aqqala, one of only two rail links from Iran into Turkmenistan, plus bridges and a tunnel near Bandar Abbas and a maritime traffic control tower at Chabahar.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Strikes Jordanian Bases Hosting U.S. Forces After Ceasefire Collapse
Iran has directed at least sixty missiles and drones at Jordanian territory since the July 8 ceasefire collapse, aimed at installations hosting American forces.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
US-Iran Switzerland Memorandum Collapses Over Hormuz Interpretation
The memorandum of understanding Tehran and Washington struck in Switzerland fell apart, with Trump declaring on July 8 that he no longer wants to deal with Iran and the US resuming attacks.
Jul 8, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Ankara NATO Summit Elevates Turkey's Position in Alliance Rearmament
NATO's summit in Ankara ended with all thirty-two allies signing a collective defense declaration committing to expanded manufacturing capacity and removal of intra-alliance defense trade barriers, while Turkey emerged as the summit's chief beneficiary.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Israeli Settlers Detain US Congressman Ro Khanna in West Bank
Armed Israeli settlers surrounded and detained a sitting US congressman near the destroyed village of Khirbet Zanuta, and by his account the IDF prolonged rather than ended the detention.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Hits 170 Targets in Iran as Iranian Retaliation Is Largely Intercepted
US Central Command struck about 170 targets across Iran in two days, including port-city military infrastructure and rail links, to degrade Iran's capacity to attack Hormuz shipping.
Jul 8, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
Ankara NATO Summit Seals $50 Billion in Weapons Deals Amid Trump Theatrics
The two-day Ankara summit ended with allies sealing $50 billion in new weapons deals and $27 billion in fuel storage and pipeline investment including on the eastern flank, reaffirming collective defense and Ukraine support in the communique.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Hezbollah Vows to Block Lebanon-Israel Framework Agreement
Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem declared that not a single clause of the June 26 US-brokered framework agreement with Israel will be approved, after weeks of escalating confrontation over the deal's condition that Israeli withdrawal follows Hezbollah's disarmament.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Trump Switched to Legacy Air Force One Over Iran Threat
At the Secret Service's urging, President Trump departed Ankara aboard the older Air Force One rather than the Qatari-donated 747-8 after U.S.-Iran hostilities resumed mid-summit.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran Hostilities Resume Amid Iranian Leadership Fracture
The United States carried out intense airstrikes on dozens of targets along Iran's southern shores after IRGC attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and struck again by nightfall.
Jul 8, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
2026 NATO Ankara Summit Outcomes
The Ankara NATO summit closed with allies reaffirming the Article 5 collective-defense pledge, calling on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and announcing fifty billion dollars in new defense procurement plus eighty billion dollars for Ukraine.
Jul 8, 2026
Escalating
Political
Iran Holds Mass Funeral for Assassinated Supreme Leader Khamenei
Iran concluded a weeklong national funeral for assassinated former supreme leader Ali Khamenei with his burial in Mashhad, drawing hundreds of thousands of mourners.
Jul 8, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Collapses Over Strait of Hormuz Control
The U.S.-Iran cease-fire and memorandum of understanding unraveled after Iran attacked ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz outside its preferred routes, prompting U.S. airstrikes on Iranian radar and air-defense sites, and Washington rescinded the oil-sanctions waivers it had granted Tehran.
Jul 8, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Trump Threatens Spain Trade Cutoff and Revives Greenland Claim at NATO Summit
At the Ankara summit, Trump escalated rhetoric against Spain over its refusal to grant base access for the Iran campaign and its rejection of a 5% GDP defense-spending target, threatening to end trade relations and reviving his claim to Greenland.
Jul 8, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran's Hormuz Mine Blockade Persists as Cease-Fire Buckles
Iran mined the Strait of Hormuz, effectively blocking about 20 percent of the world's oil and nearly half of China's supply for months and stranding some 2,000 ships.
Jul 8, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Endorses Ukrainian Deep Strikes Inside Russia
President Trump publicly backed Ukrainian long-range strikes deep inside Russian territory, calling the escalation a potential path to ending the war and marking his strongest such statement yet.
Jul 8, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran Hormuz Ceasefire Falters as Iran Retains Chokepoint Control
As fresh U.S.-Iran strikes and reimposed U.S. oil sanctions push the sixty-day Hormuz MOU toward collapse, Iran has consolidated de facto control over a waterway carrying roughly 20% of global oil and LNG.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Declares Preliminary US-Iran Cease-Fire Effectively Over
Asked whether the cease-fire and memorandum of understanding with Iran were dead, Trump said he thinks it is over and that he no longer wants to deal with Tehran, while allowing negotiators to keep talking.
Jul 8, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Denmark Rebuffs Renewed Trump Claim to Greenland at NATO Summit
Trump told the NATO summit that Greenland is a big problem the United States needs for protection of the world, renewing his claim to the island.
Jul 8, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Mass Iraqi Mourning for Khamenei Demonstrates Iran's Intact Regional Network
Hundreds of thousands of mourners filled Najaf for the procession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's coffin, following five days of ceremonies in Iran and an official Iraqi state funeral on the coffin's arrival, before burial in Mashhad.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran-US Ceasefire Collapses as Iran Strikes US Sites in Bahrain and Kuwait
Three weeks after a preliminary ceasefire signed in Switzerland, the U.S. struck targets in southern Iran and reimposed oil sanctions, citing Iranian attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's Revolutionary Guards answered by targeting 85 U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait and downing an MQ-9 drone, and Trump pronounced the ceasefire over.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Declares US-Iran Ceasefire Over After Iranian Hormuz Ship Attacks
At the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump attacked Iran's leadership and said he believed the ceasefire deal was over, following a fresh round of Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Declares US-Iran Interim Ceasefire Accord Dead, Revokes Oil License
Speaking ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump pronounced the US-Iran memorandum of understanding over and said he no longer wanted to engage Tehran.
Jul 7, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Hard-Line Faction Collapses U.S. Peace Deal With Unauthorised Strait of Hormuz Ship Attacks
Iranian forces fired on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, setting a Qatari LNG tanker ablaze, in an operation the president, the Revolutionary Guards commander in chief and the Supreme National Security Council all say they neither authorised nor knew about.
Jul 7, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Trump Flies Home From NATO Summit on Decoy Aircraft Arrangement
Returning from the NATO summit in Turkey, Trump secretly switched to an alternate aircraft while the presidential 747 flew with press and most staff aboard as a decoy.
Jul 7, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Turkey Joins Five NATO Capability Programs at Ankara Summit
Turkey formally joined five NATO capability programs covering integrated air and missile defense, long-range strike, space surveillance, critical defense raw materials, and unmanned systems.
Jul 7, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
NATO Summit in Ankara Centers on Managing Trump
At NATO's annual summit in Ankara, allies recast success as keeping President Trump satisfied and committed to the alliance rather than advancing collective strategic priorities.
Jul 7, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
U.S. Signals F-35 Sale to Turkey and Lifts S-400 Sanctions
At a NATO summit in Turkey, Trump announced the lifting of CAATSA sanctions imposed over Ankara's 2019 purchase of Russian S-400 systems and signaled willingness to sell F-35 jets, reversing Turkey's 2019-2020 exclusion from the program.
Jul 7, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Berates NATO Allies at Ankara Summit Over Iran War Refusals
As NATO leaders gathered in Ankara for the annual summit, Trump publicly rebuked Italy, Germany and France for refusing to assist the US war against Iran, saying he had been testing people.
Jul 7, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes IRGC Naval Targets After Hormuz Tanker Attacks
US Central Command launched strikes on IRGC small boats and coastal targets at Qeshm island, Bandar Abbas and Sirik after three oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 7, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Trump Publicly Criticizes Italy Over Iran War Non-Cooperation
President Trump paired personal praise for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni with public criticism of Italy for failing to help the United States in its conflict with Iran, extending a diplomatic dispute that is straining bilateral ties.
Jul 7, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Iranian Coastal Targets and Revokes Oil License After Hormuz Tanker Attacks
After projectiles hit three commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi-flagged supertanker, US Central Command launched strikes on Iranian air defenses, coastal surveillance, anti-ship missiles, and drone launch sites around Sirik, Qeshm Island, and Bandar Abbas.
Jul 7, 2026
Escalating
Military
Tanker Attacks Push Strait of Hormuz Threat Level to Severe
The Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat was struck and risked explosion, the Saudi supertanker Wedyan was damaged off Oman, and a third tanker took minor drone damage within 24 hours in and near the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.
Jul 7, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
United States Revokes License for Iranian Open-Market Oil Sales
The Trump administration revoked the license that allowed Iran to sell oil on the open market, the central economic benefit Tehran derived from the interim peace deal that ended the U.S.-Iran war.
Jul 7, 2026
De-escalating
Political
State Funeral Procession for Khamenei in Qom
Iran's government staged an elaborate funeral procession for slain Supreme Leader Khamenei in Qom, the center of Shiite religious education, following days of mass mourning in Tehran and ahead of burial in Mashhad.
Jul 7, 2026
Escalating
Military
Tanker Struck in Strait of Hormuz Amid Stalled Iran Peace Talks
A Qatari LNG tanker was struck by a projectile off Oman's coast in the Strait of Hormuz, the first incident there since Khamenei's mourning began, as Iran refused to resume talks unless Trump ends threats to restart the war.
Jul 7, 2026
Escalating
Military
IRGC Fires Missiles at Two Commercial Ships Near Strait of Hormuz
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles at two commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, during the funeral period for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Jul 6, 2026
Stable
Political
Iran Stages Mass State Funeral for Slain Supreme Leader Khamenei
Four months after Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in the US-Israeli war, millions of Iranians converged on Tehran for funeral ceremonies at the Grand Mosalla and Azadi Square.
Jul 6, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Tanker Struck by Projectile in Strait of Hormuz
A tanker was hit by a projectile and caught fire while transiting the Strait of Hormuz off Limah, Oman, with no reported casualties.
Jul 6, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Missiles Strike Two Commercial Ships in Strait of Hormuz
Iranian missiles hit two commercial ships near the eastern mouth of the Strait of Hormuz with no casualties, the latest test of a fragile cease-fire between the United States and Iran.
Jul 6, 2026
De-escalating
Political
State Funeral and Succession Vacuum After Khamenei's Death
Millions filled Tehran's streets and Azadi Square for the final day of mourning for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed at the onset of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Jul 6, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Trump to Restore Turkey to F-35 Program
Trump is expected to signal at the Ankara summit that he will readmit Turkey to the F-35 stealth-fighter program, reversing the 2019 expulsion prompted by Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 systems.
Jul 6, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Funeral Procession for Slain Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei in Tehran
The mass Tehran funeral for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in the February 28 US-Israeli airstrike, doubles as a demonstration of the Islamic Republic's mobilization capacity and a marker of contested succession.
Jul 6, 2026
Stable
Political
Khamenei Funeral Stages Revenge Narrative to Legitimize Mojtaba Succession
Iran's new leadership used Ali Khamenei's tightly controlled funeral in Tehran to fuse martyrdom with regime resilience: crosshair imagery of Trump and Vance, an official clenched-fist icon, English-language slogans promising blood, and Epstein-linkage propaganda against Trump and Netanyahu.
Jul 6, 2026
Escalating
Military
Russia Strikes Kyiv With Ballistic Missiles on Eve of NATO Summit
Russia mounted its second major missile attack on Kyiv within days, killing at least seven people and wounding more than two dozen, hours before NATO leaders gather in Ankara.
Jul 5, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Khamenei Funeral at Unfinished Grand Mosalla Exposes Iranian State Capacity Gaps
Iran staged weekend funeral services for assassinated supreme leader Ali Khamenei at Tehran's Grand Mosalla, a mega-project left incomplete after nearly 40 years and about $1 billion in spending, with construction eventually handed to an arm of the Revolutionary Guards.
Jul 5, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Mass Funeral Rites for Slain Iranian Supreme Leader Highlight Successor's Absence
Iran staged a second day of mass public mourning in Tehran for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed with members of his family in late February at the onset of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Jul 4, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Iran Stages Khamenei Funeral as Continuity Spectacle Amid Postwar Exhaustion
Iran's government has transformed Tehran into the stage for multi-day funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed at the onset of the late-February U.S.-Israeli war.
Jul 4, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Erdogan Warns Israel Against Undermining U.S.-Iran Deal at Turkey-Pakistan Summit
Turkish President Erdogan, standing beside Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Istanbul, accused Israel of attempting to dynamite the U.S.-Iran peace deal mediated by Pakistan and declared that no Middle East solution can last without regional countries' backing.
Jul 4, 2026
Stable
Political
Iran Opens Funeral Rites Closing Khamenei's Three-Decade Era
Iran began six days of funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose death months earlier ended a defining chapter in the Islamic Republic's history.
Jul 4, 2026
Escalating
Political
Mass Khamenei Funeral Opens as Trump Pauses U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
Tens of thousands of mourners thronged Tehran's Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla as Iran opened weeklong funeral rites for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed with senior family members in the war's opening U.S.-Israeli strikes, while President Trump paused peace talks for the week.
Jul 3, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Khamenei Funeral Begins as Successor Mojtaba Remains Absent
Iran opened seven days of funeral ceremonies for Ali Khamenei, who ruled for more than 35 years before being killed in U.S.-Israeli air strikes in February, with events planned across Iran and Iraq and 12-20 million attendees expected.
Jul 3, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Iranian Elite Splits Over U.S. Deal as New Supreme Leader Rules in Absentia
Khamenei's funeral assembled Iran's president, parliamentary speaker, judiciary head, and top Revolutionary Guards generals in a display of unity that conceals open elite warfare over negotiations with Washington.
Jul 3, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Foreign Allies Converge on Iran for Khamenei Funeral
Iran began a week of ceremonies to bury Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, killed Feb. 28 in the first wave of U.S.-Israeli strikes, drawing dignitaries from China, Russia, Pakistan, Iraq, and the Taliban in a display of Iran's enduring regional pull despite its decapitation.
Jul 2, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Renews NATO Attacks Days Before Ankara Summit
Days before the Ankara summit, President Trump again attacked NATO on Truth Social for U.S. over-subsidization, unsettling European allies and Canada who fear the summit will be spent managing him rather than addressing Russia's war.
Jul 2, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Holds Firm on Hormuz Tolls Despite U.S. Incentives
The United States, working with Oman, is trying to break Iran's insistence on charging tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, offering access to frozen Iranian funds as an inducement.
Jul 2, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Khamenei Killed in US-Israeli Strike, Mojtaba Succeeds as Supreme Leader
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening US-Israeli strike of the war, and his son Mojtaba, himself wounded, has succeeded him as the third supreme leader.
Jul 1, 2026
Stable
Military
Iran Intensifies Civil Society Crackdown During Khamenei Funeral Week
Iranian security forces arrested environmentalists Houman Jokar and Sepideh Kashani, previously imprisoned six years on disputed spying charges, in their Tehran home without stated charges, alongside Kashani's chronically ill sister.
Jul 1, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
US and Iran Resume Indirect Talks in Qatar Over Hormuz
Following a serious flare-up that tested last month's preliminary agreement, the U.S. and Iran resumed indirect talks in Qatar via Pakistani and Qatari mediators, restoring calm as oil eased and Hormuz traffic recovered to about 80 percent of prewar volume.
Jun 30, 2026
De-escalating
Cyber
US Imagery Blackout Request During Iran Strikes Fails to Restrict Access
When strikes on Iran began in 2026 the US government asked American commercial satellite imagery providers to stop selling photos of the region, and many curbed sales, but European and Chinese vendors continued.
Jun 30, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Refuses US Envoy Talks and Asserts Hormuz Control
Iran refused to meet U.S. envoys Kushner and Witkoff in Doha, routing contact through mediators and demanding ceasefire terms be resolved before nuclear negotiations, exposing deep gaps in the two-week-old interim framework.
Jun 30, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
UK Publishes Defence Investment Plan Raising Spending to £80bn by 2029
The UK government published its Defence Investment Plan, adding £15bn to reach £270bn over four years and lifting annual defence spending from £54bn to £80bn by 2029, a 27% real-terms rise but still only 2.7% of GDP against NATO's 3% mandate.
Jun 30, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Talks Over Strait of Hormuz Control
Following four days of reignited strikes that nearly broke a fragile cease-fire, U.S. and Iranian officials prepared indirect talks in Qatar centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz rather than Iran's nuclear program.
Jun 29, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
US and Iran Return to Doha Talks to Preserve Fragile Ceasefire
The United States dispatched envoys Witkoff and Kushner to Doha for high-level Iran talks aimed at stabilizing a June 17 memorandum of understanding that ended four months of conflict and reopened the Strait of Hormuz.
Jun 29, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Iran Claims Exclusive Right to Manage Hormuz Traffic
Iran's foreign minister, speaking in Baghdad, asserted that Iran holds the exclusive right to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz under the preliminary peace deal with Washington, warning that challenges would bring more violence.
Jun 28, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Strikes U.S. Gulf Bases as U.S.-Iran Interim Deal Frays
Iran fired missiles and drones at U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain after Trump threatened to wipe out Iran's leadership and U.S. forces struck Iranian military infrastructure over attacks on Hormuz shipping.
Jun 27, 2026
Stable
Alliance
Hezbollah Retains Dahiya Stronghold Under Tense Israel-Lebanon Truce
Under a fragile U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon truce, residents are returning to Hezbollah's Dahiya stronghold after months of war that displaced tens of thousands.
Jun 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Strikes Iranian Military Sites Over Hormuz Shipping Attacks
U.S. forces struck Iranian military surveillance, communications, air-defense, drone-storage and minelaying facilities after Iranian drones hit commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.
Jun 27, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Breakdown Over Strait of Hormuz Route Dispute
Iran struck a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz and warned commercial vessels that only Iran-designated routes were permissible, asserting sovereign route-designation authority over the waterway.
Jun 27, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Drone Strike on Bahrain Amid Hormuz Ceasefire Breakdown
Iran launched a drone assault on Bahrain in apparent retaliation for US overnight airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone, and radar infrastructure. A tanker was also attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in a separately claimed strike.
Jun 27, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S. Retaliatory Strikes on Iranian Missile and Radar Sites
U.S. Central Command struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar facilities in retaliation for Iran's drone attack on the Ever Lovely container ship off Oman's coast.
Jun 27, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Accuses Iran of Ceasefire Violation After Hormuz Drone Attack
US President Trump posted on Truth Social accusing Iran of shooting at least four drones at ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with one hitting the Ever Lovely cargo ship near the Omani side of the waterway.
Jun 27, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Administration Targets Cuba After Venezuela and Iran Interventions
Following the U.S.-backed ouster of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro in January and the elimination of Iran's senior leadership in February, the Trump administration has turned pressure toward Cuba through an oil blockade now in its fifth month.
Jun 26, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Extends Energy Security Strategy in 15th Five-Year Plan After Hormuz Shock
Beijing unveiled the energy component of its 15th Five-Year Plan on 26 June, days after the ceasefire, keeping the same three levers that carried it through the Hormuz closure rather than reorienting.
Jun 26, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Fires on Evergreen Vessel in Strait of Hormuz
Iranian forces attacked a Taiwanese-operated Evergreen Marine cargo ship (the Ever Lovely) in the Strait of Hormuz near the Omani side of the waterway, causing limited damage.
Jun 26, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Drone Strike on Cargo Ship in Strait of Hormuz
A cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an Iranian drone, damaging the vessel's upper deck, while the US military shot down three additional drones aimed at the ship.
Jun 26, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
Israel-Lebanon Trilateral Framework Agreement Signed in Washington
Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors signed a US-brokered trilateral framework agreement at the State Department, establishing a performance-based path toward permanent ceasefire and Lebanese sovereignty restoration.
Jun 26, 2026
Unclear
Military
UAE Missile Warning Alert Issued and Retracted
UAE authorities issued a missile threat warning alert to residents on June 26, 2026, then issued a follow-up message instructing residents to disregard it without providing any explanation.
Jun 26, 2026
Escalating
Military
IRGC Rejects IMO Shipping Evacuation Routes in Strait of Hormuz
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps rejected coordinates for two temporary shipping evacuation lanes through the Strait of Hormuz announced by the IMO and Oman, blocking the first phase of a mass evacuation of hundreds of trapped vessels.
Jun 26, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran-Lebanon Diplomatic Framework Tensions Over Strait and Sovereignty
The Trump administration has engaged in overlapping negotiations across the Lebanon and Strait of Hormuz fronts, with Vice President JD Vance overseeing Lebanon talks and Secretary of State Marco Rubio declaring Israel and Lebanon 'very close' to a commitment of intent.
Jun 26, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iranian Missile and Drone Strikes Damage U.S. Navy Base in Bahrain
Iranian missiles and drones repeatedly targeted the U.S. Fifth Fleet's headquarters in Bahrain between late February and June, with some penetrating defenses and causing extensive damage.
Jun 26, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
2026 G7 Summit at Evian-les-Bains
At the 2026 Evian summit, G7 members showed renewed unity by committing to additional Ukraine air-defense support, strengthened sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sectors, and a statement endorsing a U.S.-Iran framework while reaffirming Iran cannot acquire a nuclear weapon.
Jun 25, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Strikes Container Ship and Asserts Control Over Strait of Hormuz
Iran fired on the container ship Ever Lovely as it transited near the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, then declared that the only sanctioned route ran through Iranian waters, asserting itself as the central authority over passage.
Jun 25, 2026
Escalating
Military
IRGC Attack on Singapore-Flagged Ship in Strait of Hormuz
Iran's IRGC struck a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, days after Tehran and Washington signed a deal to halt fighting and reopen the chokepoint.
Jun 25, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Rubio Tours Gulf to Sell Preliminary U.S.-Iran Accord to Skeptical Allies
Secretary of State Rubio visited Bahrain on the final leg of a Gulf tour to reassure Sunni allies about a preliminary U.S.-Iran framework that they fear strengthens Tehran and reshapes regional security and oil flows.
Jun 25, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Senate Rejects Iran War Powers Resolution After Trump Pressure
The Republican-led Senate rejected a war-powers resolution 50-47 that would have blocked Trump from resuming the Iran war, reversing a similar measure passed the prior day after Trump pressured wavering Republicans.
Jun 24, 2026
Stable
Other
White House Sends Congress $87.6 Billion War-Heavy Supplemental
The White House sent Congress an 87.6 billion dollar supplemental appropriation request for fiscal 2026, with roughly a third driven by Iran war costs and the rest funding administration priorities including non-war national security needs and unrelated add-ons.
Jun 24, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Rutte Meets Trump Amid US-NATO Tensions Over Iran War and Burden-Sharing
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte met Trump ahead of the leaders' summit as Washington threatened to cut fighter-jet contributions and review its European troop presence, frustrated by allies' refusal to support its Iran war.
Jun 24, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Operation Epic Fury Cease-Fire Leaves Iran Weakened
The cumulative US-Israel campaign against Iran, culminating in Operation Epic Fury launched February 28 and ending in a cease-fire, decimated Iran's air defenses, missile stocks, and nuclear-industrial base while collapsing its proxy network.
Jun 24, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
ICC Judges Sue Trump Administration Over Sanctions
Three ICC judges filed suit in New York challenging U.S. sanctions imposed for the court's investigations of Israeli and American actions, arguing the penalties exceeded presidential authority.
Jun 24, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Italy Rebukes NATO Chief Over Claims of U.S. Combat Flights From Italian Bases
Italy formally pushed back against NATO Secretary General Rutte's claim that hundreds of U.S. aircraft flew combat-support sorties from Italian bases during the war on Iran, with Rome insisting it sanctioned only non-kinetic logistical flights.
Jun 24, 2026
Unclear
Diplomatic
Trump Says Iran Disavows Strait of Hormuz Tolls Under Framework Deal
President Trump publicly stated that Iran told the United States no tolls, insurance costs, or other charges are being sought on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, disputing contrary reporting.
Jun 24, 2026
Mixed
Military
Israel Surrounds Hezbollah Underground Complex on Ali al-Taher Ridge
Israeli ground forces completed a month-long advance to encircle Hezbollah's Badr Unit headquarters tunnel complex near Kfar Tebnit, trapping fighters now short of food and water.
Jun 24, 2026
Unclear
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Dispute Over IAEA Inspector Access to Nuclear Sites
The U.S. and Iran publicly contradicted each other over whether Iran agreed to readmit IAEA inspectors, even as the IAEA chief affirmed a presidential memorandum mandates supervised handling of nuclear material.
Jun 23, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Oman-Iran Agreement to Form Joint Working Group on Strait of Hormuz Navigation
Oman and Iran agreed to establish a joint foreign-ministry working group on the future management of navigation and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, implementing a provision of the recent U.S.-Iran memorandum.
Jun 23, 2026
Mixed
Military
Israeli Fire Kills Two in Southern Lebanon, Straining Ceasefire
Israeli gunfire killed two people in Nabatieh al-Fawqa, the first fatalities since the ceasefire began, prompting Hezbollah to accuse Israel of violating a truce tied to the broader US-Iran deal.
Jun 23, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S. and Iran Tour Middle East to Shore Up Cease-Fire
Washington and Tehran fanned out across the Gulf to defend a tenuous 60-day cease-fire, but contradictory accounts of nuclear inspections and fund controls exposed the agreement's fragility and Gulf allies' doubts that it constrains Iranian power.
Jun 23, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
IMO Launches Evacuation of Ships Stranded in Persian Gulf After Iran War
The International Maritime Organization, coordinating with the US, Oman, and Iran, begins evacuating roughly 600 ships and 11,000 mariners stranded in the Persian Gulf since the US-Israeli war against Iran.
Jun 23, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Rubio Tours Gulf to Sell US-Iran Deal to Wary GCC Allies
Secretary of State Rubio's tour of the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain to reassure Gulf monarchies about a US-Iran memorandum of understanding exposes a fracture between Washington and its Gulf security partners.
Jun 22, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Tasu'a Commemorations Spark Iranian Influence Controversy in Georgia
Tasu'a mourning processions in Marneuli and Tbilisi on June 22-24, featuring imagery of Iran's Supreme Leader, ignited a political controversy in Georgia.
Jun 22, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
US Waiver Restores Iranian Oil Sales and Dollar Payments
A US administration waiver linked to the Strait of Hormuz deal allows Iran to sell oil and receive dollar payments, channeling a rapid cash injection to the Tehran regime.
Jun 22, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Retrospective on UK Strategic Exposure Under Starmer
The analysis traces how Starmer managed an unreliable US under Trump, declined to reverse Brexit, and under-funded defense even as the Iran war exposed UK military weakness.
Jun 22, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
US-Iran Talks Open Under Qatari-Pakistani Mediation Toward 60-Day Roadmap
High-level US and Iranian officials opened MOU-mandated negotiations in Switzerland, producing a roadmap toward a final deal in 60 days, a Hormuz de-confliction channel, and a Lebanon de-confliction cell.
Jun 21, 2026
Stable
Other
Iran World Cup Team Faces U.S. Entry Restrictions Amid Conflict Backdrop
Iran's national team competed in Los Angeles under severe entry restrictions imposed after the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, with officials including a former IRGC commander barred and the squad confined to brief visits from a Mexican base.
Jun 21, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Explosion at Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG Complex
A blast and fire during the startup of operations at the Barzan facility within Qatar's Ras Laffan industrial complex injured dozens and left 18 missing.
Jun 21, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Framework Deal Undercuts Netanyahu Ahead of Israeli Election
A preliminary U.S.-Iran framework agreement, negotiated without Israel, seeks to curtail Israel's military freedom in Lebanon, leaves Iran's ballistic missiles and nuclear program largely unaddressed, and grants Tehran an economic windfall.
Jun 21, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israel Asserts Free Action and Holds Security Zone in Southern Lebanon
Israel's defense minister declared troops free to act without restriction against threats in Lebanon and committed to holding all positions in a roughly 10-km security zone along the Yellow Line.
Jun 21, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Announces Re-Closure of Strait of Hormuz Over Israeli Strikes on Lebanon
Iran's military command said it would re-close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon, reversing a brief reopening under the preliminary US-Iran agreement and testing the fragile ceasefire.
Jun 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Hezbollah FPV Drone Campaign Entrenches Israel-Lebanon Stalemate
Hezbollah's mass use of cheap fiber-optic FPV drones, immune to electronic jamming and able to evade Iron Dome, has become the leading cause of Israeli battlefield deaths in southern Lebanon and driven the IDF deeper into Lebanese territory.
Jun 20, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran and U.S. Issue Conflicting Claims Over Strait of Hormuz Status
Iran's military declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and its IRGC naval wing warned approaching ships of security risk, while U.S. Central Command insisted traffic continued and Iran did not control the strait.
Jun 20, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Chaotic Rollout of U.S.-Iran War-Ending Deal
Trump's Iran deal stumbled through a week of contradictory messaging, an opaque multi-stage signing, and the postponement of follow-on talks after Iran reportedly withdrew over Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Jun 19, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Iran-China Dual-Use Technology Procurement Network Hardens Post-War
Iran's VPST-linked innovation houses in China, particularly the iHiT network, are consolidating into a durable dual-use technology procurement pipeline as post-war reconstruction demand surges.
Jun 19, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
Israel-Hezbollah Cease-Fire in Lebanon Stabilizes U.S.-Iran Truce
After Israeli strikes in Lebanon prompted Iran to temporarily exit talks, Israel agreed to a Qatar- and U.S.-brokered cease-fire with Hezbollah, salvaging the fragile U.S.-Iran framework deal whose first point demands an end to operations on all fronts including Lebanon.
Jun 18, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Iran MOU Delivers Early Gains to Tehran
Two weeks after signing a 14-point memorandum of understanding to end active fighting, Iran has secured summer sanctions relief, written commitments to release billions in frozen assets, and a U.S. pledge against new sanctions, while committing to little concrete.
Jun 18, 2026
Unclear
Diplomatic
Vance Delays Switzerland Trip for US-Iran Technical Talks
The White House confirmed that Vice President JD Vance's planned trip to Switzerland to lead technical negotiations with Iran was postponed, leaving the timing of the next phase of talks uncertain.
Jun 18, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
US-Iran War-Ending Accord Implementation Stalls as Vance Cancels Switzerland Trip
Vice President Vance pulled out of talks in Switzerland to implement a 14-point accord ending the US-Iran war, as Iran demanded evidence of US follow-through before proceeding and disputed the need for a signing ceremony.
Jun 18, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Hegseth Threatens NATO Drawdown Over Iran War Basing Refusals
U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth berated NATO defense ministers in Brussels as 'shameful' for refusing basing and overflight access during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran
Jun 18, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Vance to Lead 60-Day US-Iran Negotiations
Following the Trump-signed framework, Vice President Vance is set to lead two months of negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, publicly framing the deal as advantageous for the US regardless of the result.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
General License X Waiver Fails to Automatically Restore Iranian Oil Exports
The June 17 U.S.-Iran MOU introduced General License X, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil and ancillary services, but the analysis argues exports will not automatically recover: June exports are projected near 720,000 barrels per day against a pre-war 1.8 million, hampered by infrastructure damage, Hormuz disruption, banking reluctance, and snapback risk.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire and Hormuz Sanctions Waiver
The United States and Iran reached an extended ceasefire under which Washington lifted its naval blockade and waived sanctions on Iranian oil exports in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Brokers Islamabad MoU Ending Iran-US War
Pakistan mediated the Islamabad MoU, a 60-day framework to end the Iran-U.S. war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, brokered through shuttle diplomacy by Prime Minister Sharif and army chief Munir while keeping Gulf partners aligned.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Military
Israel's Multi-Front Oct. 7 War Effectively Ends with U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire
Israel's 984-day multi-front war that began with the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack effectively concluded with the June 17 U.S.-Iran cease-fire, though Israel still occupies parts of Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.
Jun 17, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China's Middle East Strategic Reorientation After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire
Following the June 17 U.S.-Iran ceasefire brokered partly with Chinese involvement, China's regional strategy has consolidated around a single defensive objective: keeping Saudi Arabia and the UAE from moving fully into the U.S. security and diplomatic architecture.
Jun 17, 2026
Stable
Sanctions
PBOC Unveils Fresh Yuan Internationalization Blueprint
The People's Bank of China governor announced new offshore-yuan trading pilots and central-bank swap lines in a renewed push to pull global financial flows into the renminbi.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
World Leaders React Warily to Preliminary US-Iran Deal
World leaders cautiously welcomed Trump's preliminary US-Iran agreement, hoping it would restore normalcy to global energy markets while warning that key details remain unresolved.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Sign MoU Ending War; Pakistan Credited as Mediator
The United States and Iran electronically signed a Memorandum of Understanding ending more than three months of war, co-signed by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif as mediator, opening a 60-day window to negotiate a permanent deal over Iran's nuclear program and Hormuz traffic.
Jun 17, 2026
Stable
Other
Major Central Banks Cluster Above Inflation Targets Amid Iran War Shock
Nine of fourteen major central banks are now missing their inflation targets at once, the largest such cluster outside the COVID and Ukraine-invasion shocks, with U.S.
Jun 17, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Ends Iran War
A signed Memorandum of Understanding ended the Iran war on terms that front-load an economic windfall to Tehran while deferring any nuclear-program restrictions to follow-on negotiations.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
Iran War Aftermath Shifts the Global Power Balance
The memorandum reads as a US surrender: for signing, 60 days of talks, and reopening Hormuz, Iran wins frozen-asset release, immediate oil waivers, sanctions-relief commitments, and a $300 billion reconstruction promise.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US-Iran Framework Agreement Made Public
The public framework ends military operations including in Lebanon, pledges noninterference in Iran's internal affairs, lifts the US naval blockade within 30 days, and routes oil waivers, frozen-asset release, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund to Tehran before final-deal talks begin.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Signs Memorandum of Understanding Ending US-Iran Conflict
President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding to end the US-Iran conflict, but the deal does not limit Iran's missiles, drones, or its support for regional militias.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Preliminary US-Iran Deal Omits Missile and Drone Provisions
The preliminary US-Iran peace deal struck this week left out any limits on Iranian missiles and drones, the weapons that struck Gulf airports, energy sites, and bases during the war.
Jun 17, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Saudi Foreign Minister Assesses Iran-US MOU at ECFR Council Meeting
In his first public appearance since the Iran-US MOU, Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal welcomed the deal as a diplomatic opening while warning of a deep trust deficit between Iran and its Gulf neighbours that makes economic rapprochement a long-term challenge.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Trump-Pezeshkian Initial Peace Deal Signals Hormuz Reopening
After nearly four months of war that brought the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil normally flows, to a near standstill, an initial peace deal was signed by U.S.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Critique Warns US-Iran Deal Empowers Iran's Regime and Proxies
The CFR critique argues the US-Iran deal's removal of all sanctions and release of frozen funds will free resources for Iran's proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shia militias, while the agreement stays silent on Iran's dangerous missile program.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Full Text of Pakistan-Brokered US-Iran Islamabad MOU Released
The full 14-point US-Iran 'Islamabad' MOU, brokered with Pakistan's help, was signed electronically by US Vice President Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Ghalibaf and then by President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
US Waives Oil Sanctions on Iran in Preliminary Deal
Under the preliminary US-Iran deal, the US Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude, petroleum products, and associated banking and shipping services, with a final deal to terminate all sanctions over 60 days.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US Official Confirms Text of US-Iran War-Ending Agreement
A senior US official publicly read the text of the US-Iran agreement at the G7, confirming a permanent end to military operations including in Lebanon, US removal of its naval blockade, Iran's reopening of the Strait of Hormuz with best-efforts free passage for 60 days, a regional $300 billion reconstruction plan, oil-export waivers, and conditional release of frozen Iranian assets.
Jun 17, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Trump Touts Iran Deal and Denies US-Funded Reconstruction
At the close of the G7 summit, Trump disparaged Obama's JCPOA and promoted his own Iran agreement as superior, under pressure to justify having taken the US to war.
Jun 17, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Trump Defends Iran Deal and Warns of Renewed Bombing
At the G-7 summit in France, President Trump defended his agreement to end the Iran war as a measure to avoid an economic catastrophe that prolonged conflict could have caused.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
NATO Allies Pledge to Help Restore Strait of Hormuz Shipping After U.S.-Iran Deal
NATO's secretary-general signaled that European allies are ready to support reopening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following a U.S.-Iran peace deal.
Jun 17, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Iran Survives War, Installs Mojtaba Khamenei After Father's Death
Iran emerged from war with neither victory nor defeat, retaining control of the country after losing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to an Israeli strike and rapidly installing his son Mojtaba Khamenei under Revolutionary Guard sponsorship.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
G7 Backs Follow-On Talks on Iran's Missiles After US-Iran War Deal
G7 leaders meeting under Macron's chairship endorsed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding that ends the war and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, while pressing for a broader follow-on agreement covering Iran's ballistic missiles and proxy support and a France-UK task force to clear and escort shipping through Hormuz.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Initial US-Iran Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
A preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the U.S. blockade is set to be signed Friday, ending the four-month war that closed Gulf energy exports and spiked global inflation.
Jun 16, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
G7 Sets Rare-Earth Dependency Target as U.S.-Iran Deal Opens Mining Reintegration
At the June G7 summit, leaders endorsed a first measurable target to reduce dependence on any single non-G7 rare-earth and magnet supplier below 60 percent by 2030, aimed squarely at China, which still controls 85-91 percent of refining.
Jun 16, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Kazakhstan-Iran Transport Corridor Cooperation Talks in Astana
Kazakhstan and Iran met in Astana to expand transport cooperation, with Iran allocating a logistics-terminal plot at Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas and Kazakhstan offering port space at Aktau and Kuryk, reaffirming a 20-million-tonne INSTC target.
Jun 16, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
G7 Summit Produces Fragile Transatlantic Alignment on Iran and Ukraine
Though officially dedicated to global economic imbalances and the threat of subsidized Chinese exports, the G7 summit was overtaken by the Iran and Ukraine wars, producing a rare appearance of transatlantic alignment on both.
Jun 16, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Draft Sets Sweeping Sanctions Relief
A draft US-Iran memorandum of understanding circulated at the G-7 declares an immediate, permanent end to the war on all fronts including Lebanon, with mutual sovereignty guarantees and a 60-day window to a final agreement.
Jun 16, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
G7 Hot-Mic Exchanges Surface Transatlantic Tensions
Sideline hot-mic recordings at the G7 captured leaders' informal exchanges, with European Council President Costa telling Trump and Meloni they were 'friends again' after Italian estrangement over the Iran war, Trump cryptically saying 'Greenland' to Costa, and Carney reassuring Trump that a Canada-China EV deal covered under three percent of Canada's market.
Jun 16, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump Floats Syrian Role Over Israel in Containing Hezbollah
Trump publicly criticized Israel's prolonged Lebanon campaign for killing civilians and faulted the timing of a Beirut strike just before the Iran deal was signed, suggesting Syria could do a better job dealing with Hezbollah.
Jun 16, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Iran and United States Move Toward Memorandum of Understanding After War
Iran's leadership is presenting an emerging memorandum of understanding with the United States as a victory of resistance, with negotiations set to begin in Switzerland and sanctions relief and Lebanon included in the framework.
Jun 16, 2026
Mixed
Military
UK Pledges Naval Role in Reopening Strait of Hormuz
Starmer commits the UK, alongside France, to assembling a multilateral mission to protect vessels and clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, closed by Iran since the war's February onset.
Jun 16, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Framework Agreement Ends War, 60-Day Negotiation Begins
The United States and Iran signed a framework agreement after three and a half months of war, with fighting in Lebanon easing and oil prices falling.
Jun 15, 2026
Mixed
Sanctions
Iranian Strikes Reconfigure Global LNG Market Against European Energy Security
The US-Israeli attack on Iran and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz reconfigured the global LNG market, with Iranian missiles destroying roughly a sixth of Qatar's export capacity and delaying its planned expansion.
Jun 15, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Israeli Pro-Netanyahu Media Turns on Trump Over Iran Deal
After Trump announced an emerging Iran cease-fire deal, personalities on Channel 14, the station aligned with Netanyahu, attacked him as a loser and a modern Chamberlain who surrendered to the ayatollahs and shortchanged Israel's security.
Jun 15, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US-Iran Deal Reopens Strait of Hormuz Amid Contested Control
A US-Iran memorandum of understanding, digitally signed June 15 ahead of a June 19 ceremony, authorizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade Iran's March closure had prompted.
Jun 15, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran War Framework Deal Leaves No Strategic Victor
A framework deal ended the war with Iran without delivering the U.S. and Israeli objectives that justified it, as Iran survived more hard-line and armed with the Strait of Hormuz as a coercive chip.
Jun 14, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
June Memorandum Concedes Iran De Facto Role Over Hormuz Transit
The memorandum of understanding Trump signed with Iran on June 14 traded an end to the US port blockade and a 60-day oil-sales window for reopening Hormuz, but its language ceded Iran a role in the strait's future administration and promised only best efforts on safe passage.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Other
Iran War Triggers Asian Energy-Security Rethink
The Hormuz shutdown during the Iran war exposed Asia's structural dependence on Gulf energy, forcing emergency rationing and a scramble toward renewables, nuclear, and non-Gulf suppliers.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Military
Israel-Hezbollah Fighting Resumes a Day After Cease-Fire
A day after a Friday cease-fire, Israeli airstrikes hit towns in southern Lebanon, killing at least seven, while Hezbollah fired more than 50 projectiles and accused Israel of advancing toward the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge near Nabatieh.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Military
Israeli Strikes on Southern Lebanon Despite Ceasefire
Israeli warplanes, drones, and artillery struck more than a dozen areas of southern Lebanon around Nabatieh, reportedly killing at least 11 people within a day of a ceasefire with Hezbollah, after Hezbollah fired over 50 projectiles.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Framework Deal Ends Iran War on Iran-Favorable Terms
The U.S. signed a framework deal ending the Iran war that concedes immediate oil-export resumption, prospective sanctions relief, tens of billions in unfrozen assets, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund, while securing no regime change, no missile limits, and no curbs on Iranian proxy support.
Jun 14, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Latest Israel-Hezbollah War Devastates Lebanon
The three-month Israel-Hezbollah war that began when Hezbollah fired on Israel in support of Iran killed at least 3,783 people in Lebanon, wounded 11,699, and displaced over 1.2 million before a US-Iran deal ended it.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S. and Iran Sign Memorandum to End War, Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Washington and Tehran agreed to a framework ending their war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, removing the U.S. blockade, and extending a 60-day cease-fire pending talks on sanctions and Iran's nuclear program.
Jun 14, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US-Iran Framework Deal Ends War and Reopens Strait of Hormuz
Washington and Tehran announced a framework agreement ending roughly four months of war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and committing to a 60-day window of nuclear negotiations.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Reopens Strait of Hormuz
Iran and the United States reached a memorandum of understanding ending nearly four months of direct hostilities and committing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, ending an Iranian closure and a U.S. naval blockade.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Framework Establishes 60-Day Ceasefire and Reopens Strait of Hormuz
The United States and Iran agreed on a framework featuring a 60-day ceasefire, reopened Strait of Hormuz, and mutual lifting of maritime blockades, with an MOU to be signed June 19 in Geneva and nuclear talks to follow.
Jun 14, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Winds Down U.S.-Iran War With Stated War Goals Unmet
President Trump concluded the U.S.-Iran war with a deal whose central achievement, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, largely restores the prewar status quo rather than meeting his original goals of annihilating Iran's military, ending its nuclear program, and toppling the regime.
Jun 13, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Domestic Political Fallout of U.S.-Iran Deal
Trump's MOU with Iran, read by critics as a list of concessions including resumed oil exports, sanctions relief, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund, has fractured his MAGA coalition and drawn fire from Republican hawks.
Jun 12, 2026
Mixed
Sanctions
Strait of Hormuz Reopens Partially Under U.S.-Iran Deal
Following a preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement, the United States lifted its April naval blockade on Iranian ships and Iran began reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with 25 vessels transiting Thursday and 11 Friday, against a prewar average near 130 daily.
Jun 11, 2026
Stable
Alliance
Four Seas Initiative Proposes Gulf-Mediterranean Energy Corridor
A Washington-based think tank launched the Four Seas Initiative, a framework to route Gulf oil and gas overland through Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey to the Mediterranean, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and reducing European dependence on Russian and Iranian energy.
Jun 10, 2026
Escalating
Military
U.S. Airstrike on Shadow Fleet Tanker Settebello Killed Three Sailors
U.S. Navy missiles struck the engine room of the Settebello, a tanker that had spent at least five years moving sanctioned Iranian oil while disguising its location, killing two crew members instantly and fatally wounding a cadet.
Jun 10, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Strikes Multiple Iranian Targets in Renewed Campaign
The United States launched a fresh wave of strikes against multiple targets in Iran, extending a direct military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
Jun 8, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Ban Israeli Shipping in Red Sea Amid Iran War Fallout
The Iran-backed Houthis announced a complete ban on Israeli ships transiting the Red Sea, declaring them legitimate military targets, as the Iran war's fallout exposes the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a second chokepoint alongside Hormuz.
Jun 5, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Myanmar Military Sustains Jet Fuel Imports Through Iran-Linked Evasion Network
Investigators documented the Panama-flagged tanker MT Great Lake discharging jet fuel at Yangon on June 5, 2026 after loading by ship-to-ship transfer in Malaysia and spoofing its AIS position, part of a supply chain running through Singapore-registered BAI Pte Ltd, Dubai-based traders moving Iranian product, and Thai financial intermediaries.
May 25, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Sustains Strikes and Expulsion Pressure on Kurdish Militants in Iraqi Kurdistan
Iran has continued drone and missile attacks on exiled Iranian Kurdish militant groups in Iraqi Kurdistan despite the April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire, injuring nine Kurdistan Freedom Party members on May 25, while Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani demanded the Kurdistan Regional Government expel the groups and surrender their leaders.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Iran Establishes Persian Gulf Strait Authority to Control Strait of Hormuz
After a 40-day US-Israel war and shaky ceasefire codified in a 14-point MOU, Iran established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and unilaterally declared an expanded maritime zone encroaching on Omani and Emirati waters, mandating prior authorization for transit and signaling intent to impose fees.
Apr 26, 2026
Stable
Political
Bennett and Lapid Unite Ahead of Israel's October 2026 Election
Former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a joint party ahead of Israel's October 2026 election, consolidating the opposition against a Netanyahu coalition polling well below the sixty-one seat majority threshold.
Apr 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran War Exposes Erosion of U.S. Military-Technological Edge
In a 39-day war from February 28 to April 8, the United States conducted over 13,000 strikes on Iran yet failed to achieve its objectives, as Iran launched over 2,200 missiles and 4,400 drones, destroyed or damaged at least eight U.S. aircraft, and killed seven U.S. service members.
Apr 8, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israeli War on Iran (Operation Epic Fury)
A joint U.S.-Israeli air and naval campaign degraded over 85 percent of Iran's missile and drone production and most of its naval and launch infrastructure, but Iran adapted to an attrition strategy that drained U.S. interceptor and Tomahawk stockpiles, threatened Gulf energy and civilian infrastructure, and closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 7, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Brokers US-Iran Ceasefire, Establishing Itself as Pivotal Mediator
As Trump's ultimatum deadline over the Strait of Hormuz approached on April 7, Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir pressed Trump and Iran's surviving leadership by phone to stop the war, and within hours Washington and Tehran announced a ceasefire.
Mar 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Israeli Strikes on Mobarakeh Steel Complex During Iran War
Israeli airstrikes hit Iran's Mobarakeh Steel complex near Isfahan in late March, targeting a major industrial site partly owned through Revolutionary Guards and Basij-linked investment funds and a fund controlled by the supreme leader.
Mar 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes on Ras Laffan Cut Qatari LNG Export Capacity by 17 Percent
Iran struck two liquefaction trains at Qatar's Ras Laffan complex on 18 March, removing roughly 17 percent of national export capacity with repairs estimated at three to five years.
Mar 5, 2026
Stable
Military
Ahvazi Faction Declares Rebellion Against Tehran in Khuzestan
An Ahvazi Arab faction announced a rebellion against Tehran after a previously obscure group attacked a Revolutionary Guard installation in the provincial capital.
Mar 5, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes on Iranian School Killed 175 in Intelligence Failure
On the first day of the war, two US airstrikes demolished the Shajarah Tayyebeh elementary school in Minab, southern Iran, killing at least 175 people, most of them children, in what Iranian officials and a Pentagon probe describe as the worst US-caused civilian-casualty incident since 1991.
Mar 4, 2026
Mixed
Military
NATO Air Defenses Intercept Iranian Ballistic Missiles Over Turkey
NATO air and missile defenses in the Eastern Mediterranean and over Turkish airspace neutralized incoming Iranian ballistic missiles in a series of engagements on March 4, 9, 13, and 30, 2026, some apparently aimed at Incirlik Air Base.
Feb 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US-Israel War on Iran Erodes American Primacy in the Persian Gulf
Washington launched a surprise attack on Iran on 28 February while nuclear talks were still running, opening with the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and expecting rapid capitulation.
Feb 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes on the United Arab Emirates Kill South Asian Migrant Workers
An Iranian attack on the United Arab Emirates killed Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Nepali workers among its first fatalities, and by mid-March at least eleven civilians had died and 268 were injured across the Gulf, most of them migrant workers.
Feb 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
United States Resumes War on Iran Without Objectives, Authorization or Exit Strategy
The American president announced a resumed campaign against Iran on 28 February in pre-taped remarks, citing objectives that ranged from destroying missile industry to annihilating the navy to inviting Iranians to take over their government.
Feb 28, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Returns to Nuclear Talks After Surviving US-Israel Air Campaign
The 40-day US-Israel air campaign launched on February 28, intended to topple Iran's theocratic regime or force major concessions, failed to achieve either, leaving the regime standing.
Feb 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran's Gulf-Wide Strikes Break the US Security Bargain
Within 48 hours of the war beginning, Iran struck every member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, ending the assumption that American protection made those states unattackable.
Jan 21, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Rubio Rejects Iranian Tolls on Strait of Hormuz
Secretary of State Rubio, on a Gulf tour, declared that no country may charge ships for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Iran's asserted right to levy fees and drawing a hard negotiating line in post-war US-Iran talks.
Jan 7, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S. Withdrawal From 66 International Bodies and Multilateral Coercion Campaign
The Trump administration directed withdrawal from 31 UN entities and 35 non-UN intergovernmental bodies, completed exit from the WHO, and withheld roughly $4 billion in UN dues to force structural reform.
Nov 1, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Albanian Constitutional Court Overturns Tirana Mayor's Removal Amid Prolonged Detention
Albania's Constitutional Court ruled that the municipal council had acted unconstitutionally in removing the Tirana mayor on the grounds of his involuntary detention, yet he remains in pre-trial detention eighteen months after arrest.
Jun 15, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
US-Iran Ceasefire and Nuclear MOU Announced
The United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending active hostilities, including US commitments to lift a naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
Jun 9, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Min Aung Hlaing State Visit to China
Myanmar's President Min Aung Hlaing is conducting a state visit to China, his second foreign trip since transitioning from military junta leader to nominal head of state.
May 4, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Hormuz Ceasefire and Initial Agreement
The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement — framed by Iran as a memorandum of understanding — to lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with mine clearance operations expected before finalization.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
US-Iran Framework Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening Agreement
The United States and Iran agreed a framework deal to end more than two months of active hostilities, with a central provision being the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
Jun 20, 2023
Mixed
Diplomatic
Canada, US, and Chile Convene Expert Talks on Electoral Disinformation
Canada's permanent mission to the Organization of American States convened an expert discussion with United States and Chilean counterparts on countering disinformation in electoral processes, pursuant to the Inter-American Action Plan on Democratic Governance.
Sep 11, 2001
De-escalating
Military
Al Qaeda Shifts Salafi Targeting From Arab Regimes to the United States
The September 11 attacks marked a deliberate change of target for extremist Salafi militancy, from the internal enemy of Arab regimes to the external one.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Gulf Rivalry Pulls African Red Sea States Into Competing Security Architectures
US and Israeli offensives against Iran and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states have undercut confidence in American security guarantees, driving Riyadh and Abu Dhabi from coordination into open competition.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US Force Design Misaligned With Adversary Strategies of Attrition
The analysis holds that the United States has built a military around small numbers of sophisticated expensive systems, an industrial base that cannot replace them quickly, and strategies that leave the political conditions for victory unresolved.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US War Aims Against Iran Unmet as Tehran Holds Hormuz and Houthis Take Bab el-Mandeb
Seven months into the war, Washington's stated objectives remain unmet: Iranian proxies have expanded, ballistic missile production has resumed underground, the regime is more entrenched under military-security leadership, and roughly 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium remain unaccounted for with inspectors excluded for over six months.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Beijing Frames Expectations Ahead of Trump-Xi Washington Summit
A senior Chinese security scholar sets out Beijing's read on the forthcoming leaders' summit in Washington, arguing that US-China relations may be stabilizing rather than deteriorating further.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US-China Balance Shifts Toward Beijing Ahead of Washington Summit
Across nineteen months the trade deficit has not closed, with the Peterson Institute finding the tariff war mainly rerouted Chinese exports through Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US War With Iran Settles Into Strategic Quagmire
The war with Iran is assessed as a self-inflicted quagmire entered on the advice of self-interested parties and on the expectation that Iranians would rise against their leadership once the top ranks were removed.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
BRICS New Delhi Declaration Endorses Iranian Positions and Names Israel
The declaration issued at the New Delhi summit called for an end to unilateral sanctions, protectionist measures and arbitrary tariffs without naming the United States, and criticized attacks on civilian infrastructure and safeguarded nuclear facilities.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China Absorbs Strait of Hormuz Supply Shock Through Reserves and Electrification
With Hormuz closed, China lost roughly a third of its crude imports, falling from 12 million barrels per day before the war to under 8 million in May and June.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Militant Strike Disables Saudi Arabia's Primary Oil Export Bypass Pipeline
Militants disabled the pipeline that had become the most consequential oil artery in the world, the route built specifically to move Saudi crude without transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran War Exposes Limits of the UAE Connectivity Model
During the 2026 war with Iran, Emirati air defences engaged more than 3,000 projectiles aimed at airports, ports, energy facilities and commercial data centres, the assets on which Abu Dhabi's influence is built.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Overland Trade Reroute Stalls at Pakistan Border Under U.S. Blockade
Iran responded to a U.S. blockade by pledging to push more trade overland, but hundreds of Iranian truck drivers are stuck at the border with Pakistan and the reroute is not proceeding as planned.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Asian Realignment Follows BRICS Summit as US Commitments Turn Conditional
The discussion places the New Delhi Declaration's preserved consensus alongside an India-China stabilization that stops short of realignment.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
India Chairs BRICS Summit That Avoids Naming Its Core Disputes
India hosted the BRICS summit in New Delhi with both the Chinese and Russian leaders present, and the adopted declaration omitted Hormuz, Iran, Ukraine, the dollar and the United States.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
New Delhi BRICS Summit Produces Unanimous Joint Declaration
India hosted the 18th BRICS summit and secured unanimous endorsement of a joint declaration after the May foreign ministers' meeting collapsed over Iran language and an Emirati-Iranian dispute.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran's Hormuz Closure Hardens Into a Transit Fee Regime
Six months into the closure, daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from more than one hundred to a handful.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran Shifts From Proxy Network to Hormuz Chokepoint After Axis Collapse
With the proxy architecture built after 2003 largely dismantled, Iran has asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz as its principal instrument of regional leverage.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Expends Over 70 High-End Interceptors Against Iranian Missile Attack on Jordan
Iran launched a missile attack on Jordan and US forces fired 70 or more of their highest-end air defense interceptors to counter it, according to US and regional officials.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Remain Constrained in Seventh Month of Iran War
Two of the world's most important maritime chokepoints are no longer freely transited as the Iran war enters its seventh month.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
China and Central Asia Develop Iran as Additional Westbound Trade Corridor
Beijing and the Central Asian states are building Iran into an additional westbound trade route rather than treating the trans-Caspian Middle Corridor as the single path to Europe.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Iraq Courts US Oil Majors and Syria Export Route to Reset Washington Ties
Baghdad is trying to replace a security relationship with a commercial one as US forces leave, pursuing ExxonMobil for Majnoon and Chevron for West Qurna-2 alongside a Qatari-US consortium study of pipelines from Haditha to Baniyas and Ceyhan.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Israel's Support Base Narrows as Election Campaign Ignores Diplomatic Isolation
Unfavourable views of Israel have reached 60 percent among American adults, up from 53 percent a year earlier and down roughly 20 percentage points in favourability since 2022, with unfavourability near 70 percent among under-50s, close to 80 percent among Democrats and 41 percent among Republicans.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Israeli Buffer Zone and Hezbollah Disarmament Deadlock Freeze Lebanon's Southern Return
Israel occupies a buffer zone extending ten kilometres into Lebanese territory behind the Yellow Line, and Israeli officials indicate up to 600,000 people could be prevented from returning if it does not withdraw.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
U.S. Ties Chinese Satellite Imagery to Lethal Iranian Strike on American Troops
US officials have linked Chinese-supplied satellite imagery to an Iranian strike that killed American troops, which they characterize as the clearest evidence yet that Chinese support for Iran during the war has produced lethal consequences for US forces.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Envoys Meet Putin as Washington Concedes Russian Positions in Advance
Trump's negotiators emerged from their latest meeting with Putin describing Russia as a potential partner and seeking win-win outcomes.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US-Iran War Erodes Partner Confidence in American Security Guarantees
The war's economic effects are showing up far from the Gulf as layoffs in the UAE and as rising prices, supply delays, and reduced tourism in India.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
United States Dismantles Its Democracy Support Architecture
Washington eliminated roughly 90 percent of US democracy aid, closed USAID, dissolved the National Security Council democracy directorate, and reoriented the State Department's democracy bureau.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Twenty-Fifth Anniversary Reckoning With the Post-9/11 Strategic Record
The piece marks twenty-five years since the September 11 attacks with a structural audit of what the war on terror cost the United States in military capacity, credibility and strategic attention.
Date unknown
Stable
Alliance
Mecca Joint Defense Agreement Between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed a collective security agreement in Mecca in early August declaring an attack on one an attack on all and encouraging further defense cooperation.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Israel-Greece Air Defense Deal Anchors a Patchwork Alliance Ring
Israel agreed a 3.5 billion dollar package to build Greece an integrated multilayered air defense network including David's Sling and Barak MX, with Cyprus openly reading the shield as protection against Turkey.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Israeli Campaign in Tyre Hollows Out Southern Lebanon Under Repeated Truces
Since the war began in March, Tyre has cycled between deadly strikes and fragile ceasefires, with water, electricity and medical services repeatedly interrupted.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
India Hosts BRICS Leaders' Summit in New Delhi
New Delhi is preparing a heavily staged summit on 12 and 13 September, following a foreign ministers' forum in May, with economic resilience as a central theme aimed at American tariffs.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Trades Iran-US War Mediation for Renewed Washington Access
Pakistan has re-entered a warm phase with Washington by presenting itself as a useful partner, mediating between the United States and Iran while adding cryptocurrency deals, critical mineral investment and counterterrorism cooperation.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
UK, Canada and France Sanction West Bank Settlement Goods, Israel Retaliates
Britain announced jointly with Canada and France a ban on trade in West Bank settlement goods, with a dozen countries supporting the measure in total.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Resumes Ballistic Missile Production in Underground Facilities
Officials from the United States and regional states report that Iran has restarted ballistic missile manufacturing, using pre-existing component stockpiles and hardened underground sites.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
CSIS Case for Sustained U.S. Leadership on Global Human Rights
A CSIS argument that the normative order built around the Universal Declaration depends on American willingness to underwrite it, and that no substitute coalition exists.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Russian Equipment Shortages Constrain Operations in Ukraine and Beyond
Russian weapons portfolios in Ukraine are contracting in both size and composition under combined attrition and sanctions pressure, across artillery ammunition, tanks, uncrewed aerial vehicles, electronic warfare, and long-range precision strike.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Israel Consolidates Occupation of Southern Lebanon With Village Demolitions and Access Control
The Israeli military holds about 6 percent of Lebanese territory as a self-declared security zone established after the war with Iran reignited fighting with Hezbollah.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
United States Tightens Foreign Investment Screening as Industrial Policy Turns Inward
Federal, state and local authorities are restricting inbound investment across data storage, critical mineral processing and chipmaking, extending the aversion from China to allies.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
White House Advisers Privately Warn Iran War Could Last Through Trump's Term
Senior White House advisers have raised with the president the prospect that the war with Iran continues for the remainder of his term, a planning assumption at odds with his public claim of swift victory.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Saudi Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement Submitted to Congress for Review
The 123 agreement reaching Congress does not require Riyadh to forgo enrichment and reprocessing or to accept the Additional Protocol, and instead names a potential future pathway to enrichment cooperation preceded by a two-year joint study.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
UN Security Council Reform Deadlock Persists Amid Expanding Veto Use
The Council's five permanent members retain vetoes granted in 1945, and its composition has not changed since 1965. Russia has blocked 162 resolutions and the United States 95, while China's veto use has risen sharply in recent years
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
Guterres Succession Opens as Great Power Competition Narrows the Office
António Guterres will leave the secretary-general's office in December 2026 after two terms, with a successor taking office in January 2027.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Operation Inherent Resolve Ends as US Troops Complete Iraq Withdrawal
The final US troops are scheduled to leave Iraq on 30 September under the 2024 bilateral agreement, ending the Defeat ISIS Coalition's military mission and more than two decades of American military engagement.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Geoeconomic Fragmentation Erodes Multilateral Financial Institutions' Leverage
Global imbalances have risen from about 2.4 percent of world GDP in 2019 to about 3.6 percent in 2025, with structural factors driving 55 to 60 percent of them.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US War on Iran Stalls as Washington's Planning Institutions Fail
Seven months into the US and Israeli campaign against Iran, costing roughly a billion dollars a day during heavy fighting, Washington has abandoned its maximalist aims and is seeking terms inferior to the prewar status quo.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Iran Accelerates Construction and Hardening at Pickaxe Mountain Underground Complex
Imagery through July and August 2026 shows road activity at Pickaxe Mountain exceeding any prior point, with portal accesses raised and hardened, internal roads paved, access areas reinforced and excavation spoil removed.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Nuclear States Block Legally Binding Negative Security Assurances
The five nuclear-armed states remain deadlocked on legally binding negative security assurances, with the United States, France and the United Kingdom defending revisable unilateral declarations while China and Pakistan press for legal obligation.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Sanctioned Iranian Carrier Expands Route Network Despite US Designation
An Iranian airline accused of moving cash, weapons, and personnel for the Revolutionary Guard is adding destinations and expanding its footprint after more than a decade under US sanctions.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
European Governments Impose Arms Restrictions on Israel as Association Agreement Suspension Stalls
At least seven European countries have enacted full or partial restrictions on military exports to Israel, including Germany, Israel's second-largest arms supplier, which announced a partial and temporary embargo in August 2025.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
India Hosts BRICS Summit While Advancing Its China Reset
India hosts the 18th BRICS summit in New Delhi on 12-13 September as chair, seeking to steer the grouping back toward development and away from de-dollarization and anti-US declarations.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Case Advanced for Polycentric Order Anchored by a Great-Power Concert
An analytical proposal for governing a world in which no single state or coalition dominates. It argues that authority is devolving to regional bodies for reasons of proximity, trade concentration and cultural affinity
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iran Reorders Deterrence Around Missiles and Hormuz After Axis Collapse
Three years of war have inverted Iran's defensive architecture. The allied network that was meant to absorb conflict now depends on Tehran for protection
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Britain Prepares Trade Ban on Israeli West Bank Settlement Goods
London is expected to announce a ban on goods produced in Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, possibly with sanctions on firms building them.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
India Chairs a Fractured BRICS Summit With Members at War
Delhi hosts the eighteenth summit on 12 and 13 September with leaders from members that have recently attacked one another.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
European Push for an Anti-Hunger Coalition Ahead of the UN General Assembly
Two wars and a climate shock are compounding into a food-supply crisis with no institutional owner. Roughly a third of seaborne fertiliser cannot move because Hormuz is blocked
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Israeli Consolidation of the Golan Heights Deepens as Third-Party Recognition Widens
Colombia became the second state to recognize Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, following the 2019 American reversal of decades of policy on territory Israel seized in 1967 and later annexed.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Naval Blockade Halts Iranian Oil Exports From the Persian Gulf
An American naval blockade has prevented Iran from shipping any oil out of the Persian Gulf since July, while Iran continues to squeeze the Strait of Hormuz against commercial traffic.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
U.S. Administration Escalates Rejection of International Legal Authority
The American administration has moved from non-participation in international legal institutions to open hostility, with the Secretary of State describing the International Criminal Court as waging war on the country and the president dismissing international law outright.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Draws Regional Backlash
Israel recognized Somaliland in late December 2025, drawing formal objections from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the European Union on territorial integrity grounds.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
US Allies Build Intelligence Autonomy Amid Doubts on Washington
Allies across Europe, Asia and the Gulf are restructuring intelligence arrangements toward greater autonomy as confidence in US reliability erodes.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Russia Scales Parallel Geran Drone Production With Weekly Iteration
Russia has run the licence-built Shahed derivative as a continuously modified platform across two competing production sites since acquiring the design from Iran under a 1.75 billion dollar agreement.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Launches Second Maximum-Pressure Sanctions Campaign Against Iran
Washington has resumed military strikes on Iran while rolling out a sanctions package designed to blockade Iranian exports outright.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Russia, North Korea, Iran and China Deepen Transactional Alignment Without Coalition Commitments
Russia and North Korea revived a Cold War alliance treaty in June 2024 promising mutual military aid, and Pyongyang has sent roughly 16,000 troops to help defend Kursk in exchange for possible missile and submarine technology.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
New START Expiry Leaves U.S. and Russia Without Binding Arms Control
With New START expired and the 2026 NPT Review Conference closed without consensus, Washington and Moscow hold no binding bilateral arms control treaty for the first time since the Cold War.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Coercive Trade and War Strategy Backfires Across Three Fronts
Three U.S. coercive campaigns have produced counter-leverage rather than compliance. The Iran war, projected to last weeks, is in its sixth month with Hormuz closed, oil prices up
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Announces Iran Pressure Campaign That Spares China
Washington announced an expanded sanctions campaign framed as severing every economic lifeline sustaining Iran, then declined to name the country that buys most of its oil and clears most of its payments.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Washington Declines to Confront China and Russia Over Material Support to Iran
The United States has sanctioned Chinese firms, tankers and refinery intermediaries but has not moved against the banks or the funding architecture that sustain the trade, and Beijing responded by shifting to overland routes through Pakistan and Central Asia and issuing a blocking order penalising compliance with American sanctions.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
USS Abraham Lincoln Port Call in Thailand After Nine-Month Iran Deployment
The carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is scheduled to dock near Pattaya in Chonburi Province with roughly 5,000 sailors and Marines aboard, following a nine-month Middle East deployment under repeated missile and drone attack.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Suspends General License G, Ending Educational Exemptions for Iran
The United States expanded sanctions on Iran and suspended General License G, which had exempted educational services from earlier rounds.
Date unknown
Stable
Sanctions
Washington Shifts From Military Campaign to Economic Pressure on Iran
Six months into the war, the American approach has moved back toward sanctions after the military campaign failed to produce the results the White House anticipated.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Jordan Identifies Israeli West Bank Annexation as Its Primary Strategic Threat
Amman has moved annexation of the West Bank to the top of its threat list, above the Iran war that killed American soldiers on Jordanian soil.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Syria Reopens as Regional Transit Corridor as Traders Route Around Hormuz
Iraqi fuel began moving legally through Syria to Baniyas for the first time since 2003, with more than 2.1 million metric tons shipped between April and late July and the Rabia crossing reopened.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iranian Fuel Shortages Deepen Under U.S. Naval Blockade and Refinery Damage
A continuing U.S. naval blockade of Iran's southern ports has cut the gasoline imports that normally cover just over a tenth of daily consumption, while strikes during the U.S.-Israeli war have reduced refinery output.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
United States Escalates Sanctions Campaign Against the International Criminal Court
Washington has pledged to dismantle the International Criminal Court and added further sanctions on court officials this month, extending a campaign that began after the court issued a warrant for Israel's prime minister.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China Uses Strategic Oil Stockpile to Cut Imports During Iran War
Beijing has drawn on the world's largest oil stockpile to slash imports during the Iran conflict, holding down global prices in the process.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Treasury Targets Core Egyptian Bank in Iran Financial Crackdown
The US Treasury secretary had signalled major sanctions against a financial institution as part of tightening economic pressure on Iran, with expectations pointing to China as the largest buyer of Iranian crude.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
Pentagon Expands and Recomposes the Munitions Industrial Base After the Iran War
The FY2027 request and subsequent awards show the Pentagon buying both magazine depth and magazine breadth, pairing legacy precision munitions with a high-low mix that includes the Family of Affordable Mass Missiles and the Drone Dominance Program.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Iranian Economy Deteriorates as Regime Hardens Six Months Into the War
Inflation reached 84 percent and the rial hit a record low near two million to the dollar, with staples out of reach and fuel-price anxiety producing queues.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Scottish Prosecutors Seek Terrorism Aggravation Against Palestine Action Defendants
A 16-page indictment argues the Turnberry vandalism was aggravated by a terrorist connection, which would sharpen sentences on conviction.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Israeli Offensive Against Iran Reaches Six Months Without Resolution
Six months after the United States and Israel launched their offensive against Iran, the conflict continues to disrupt trade, energy and food security across the region and beyond.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iraqi Sovereignty Contested by Cross-Border Strikes and Iran-Aligned Armed Groups
Iraq under a new prime minister is absorbing attacks launched from and within its territory by Iran-aligned armed groups alongside U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iraqi soil, both of which reopen the question of the state's monopoly on the use of force.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran War Reaches Six-Month Stalemate With Hormuz Navigation Compromised
Six months after the United States and Israel attacked Iran and killed its supreme leader, an operation planned for four to six weeks has become a stalemate.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iranian Business Continues Openly in Dubai Despite U.S. Economic Pressure Campaign
The U.S. Treasury announced an economic pressure campaign warning that Washington would no longer overlook countries supporting Iran, paired with an announced end to ties.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Japan Absorbs U.S. Economic and Alliance Pressure Without Reciprocal Concessions
Tokyo has accepted a $550 billion U.S.-directed investment program to shield its carmakers, then continued honoring it after the underlying tariffs were struck down.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Report Finds US Authorities and Training Lag AI Fielded at the Tactical Edge
An Atlantic Council assessment concludes that US forces should plan for denied, degraded, intermittent and limited operating conditions produced by jamming, cyber attack and anti-satellite weapons, and that autonomous and decision-support tools could fight through that disruption.
Date unknown
Stable
Institutional
SCO Marks 25 Years With Bishkek Summit Deliverables Pending
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization reaches its 25th anniversary at a Bishkek summit expected to deliver on Tianjin decisions covering an Anti-Drug Centre in Dushanbe, a security threats centre in Tashkent and the merging of observer and dialogue partner categories into a single status.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Interceptor and Strike Munitions Depletion in the Iran War
Sustained expenditure in the war with Iran has drawn down US Patriot, THAAD, Standard Missile, Tomahawk and standoff strike inventories, by open-source estimate as much as half of certain lines.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Iran War Fractures Gulf Cohesion and Erodes U.S. Security Guarantee
Six months of strikes on regional infrastructure and Iranian interdiction in the Strait of Hormuz have split the Gulf over how to respond, with Riyadh buying a defence pact from Pakistan and Turkey while Abu Dhabi deepens the Abraham Accords.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Maximum Economic Pressure on Iran Advances as Energy Buffers Deplete
Washington has pivoted to a blockade and sanctions strategy against Iran on the assumption that markets will keep absorbing disruption, but the buffers that made the first shock survivable are exhausted.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Hormuz Closure Forces Pakistani Blackouts and Fertilizer Plant Shutdowns
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, enforced by mining and an attack on a Qatari tanker in early July, has cut Pakistan off from the Qatari supply that covers nearly 90 percent of its contracted LNG.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Argument for Regime Type as an Alliance-Network Asset in Great-Power Competition
The piece frames alliance networks as force multipliers whose composition is determined partly by regime type, noting that Russia's support base runs through Belarus, Iran, North Korea and China while NATO fields a broadly democratic bloc.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Israeli Bombing and Ground Deployment in Lebanon Damage Heritage Sites
Israeli bombing damaged six Lebanese heritage sites across the 2024 fighting and the campaign that followed the outbreak of the war against Iran, including the UNESCO listed sites at Baalbek and Tyre and the largely destroyed Ottoman souk at Nabatieh.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
China Identified as Principal Clearinghouse for Iranian Shahed Drone Components
U.S. officials and analysts identify China as the dominant transit point for the parts that make Iran's Shahed drone cheap and reproducible.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Weighs Not Rebuilding Northwest Indian Ocean Presence After Iranian Strikes
Following Iranian attacks on US bases in the Gulf, reporting suggests Washington may not reconstitute its military presence in the northwest corner of the Indian Ocean.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Bans Advanced Robotics Imports
The Trump administration announced a comprehensive ban on new imports of advanced robotics devices, requiring US assembly and at least 65 percent US-made content.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Settler Siege of Qusra Exposes U.S. Reluctance to Press Israel on West Bank Violence
Israeli settlers besieged Palestinian homes in the village of Qusra, including one belonging to a U.S. citizen, in an apparent effort to force residents to flee.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Six Months of U.S.-Iran War Redraw Gulf Energy Security Assumptions
Six months of war between the United States and Iran have distributed costs unevenly, with emerging markets in Asia and poor consumers worldwide carrying the heaviest burden while American production and export constraints partially shielded the United States.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Regional Powers Displace Institutional Peacemaking as Conflict Mediators
Interstate conflicts have reached a post-1945 record of 65 while the Security Council has failed to act effectively on Ukraine, Myanmar, Gaza and Sudan.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
State Department Restaffs Middle East Embassies Evacuated During Iran War
The State Department is preparing to return foreign service officers to embassies across the Middle East that were evacuated after Iran and its regional allies targeted US missions in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq with drones and rockets.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Civilizationism Emerges as Successor Doctrine to US Liberal Hegemony
The New Right is converting an ethnoreligious conception of American identity into a grand strategy that would organise the world into bounded civilizational spheres run by regional hegemons.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Second US Blockade of Iran Extends a Failing Pressure Strategy
After abandoning a first blockade of Iranian ports at 66 days, Trump imposed a second blockade and a broader campaign to cut Iran's remaining trade.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Crude Overtakes Soy as Argentina's Top Export Amid Vaca Muerta Expansion
Argentine crude passed soy flour as the country's leading export for the first time, with output above 850,000 barrels a day against roughly 500,000 a decade ago.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US Policy Freeze Deepens Iran and Afghanistan Isolation
Washington continues to make policy toward Iran through a lens set in 1979 and toward Afghanistan through the humiliation of 2021, sustaining both as isolated pariah states rather than engaging the governments that actually exist.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
CFR Report Finds US Arsenal Depleted by Iran War, Urging Two-Year Production Sprint
The war with Iran and Operation Epic Fury have drawn down American air-defence interceptors and precision-guided munitions to levels that cannot be replenished within two years at current production rates.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Authorities Shutter Cafes in Public-Space Crackdown
Police closed dozens of cafes, restaurants and boutiques across Iranian cities citing hijab violations, moral misconduct and norm-breaking.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iranian Political Leadership Publicly Breaks With Hardliners Over Ending the War
Iran's most senior elected politicians argued in public that ending the six-month war and stabilizing the economy must take priority, a direct challenge to hardline factions holding to a defiant posture.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
China Abandons Property Speculation Curbs to Reflate Housing Market
Beijing dropped the signature formula that houses are for living in and not for speculation from the 2022 Central Economic Work Conference, moved to scrap real estate borrowing restrictions, and directed its largest state bank to extend a $431 billion credit lifeline to the developers whose leverage created the crisis.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Collapse of Gaza's Financial Infrastructure Blocks Reconstruction Capital
Gaza's banking and microfinance systems are largely inoperable, leaving no reliable channel for reconstruction capital estimated above $70 billion.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Air Campaign Against Iran Fails to Achieve Regime Change or Missile Suppression
Nearly six months of American air operations against Iran have not produced regime change, destroyed Iran's long-range strike capability, or altered Iranian nuclear and proxy policy, despite technical dominance and heavily lopsided casualties.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Israeli Financial Restrictions Push Palestinian Authority Toward Insolvency
Israel has combined permit cancellations, withheld clearance revenues and capped interbank shekel transfers into a single economic pressure campaign on the West Bank.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
US-Saudi Civil Nuclear Agreement Loosens Nonproliferation Standard Amid Global Nuclear Revival
The United States signed a thirty-year civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia in July 2026 that falls short of the controls, inspections and international agency involvement set in earlier American nuclear agreements, and it has yet to take effect.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China's Illicit Financial Infrastructure Underwrites Sanctions Evasion for Iran, Russia and North Korea
Underground banking networks built to evade Chinese capital controls now clear roughly ninety percent of Iran's sanctioned oil exports, convert North Korean stolen cryptocurrency and launder cartel proceeds.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Weapons Stockpiles Depleted by Inconclusive War With Iran
American munitions inventories were drawn down by a war against Iran that ended without a decisive result. Allies who previously worried about Washington's willingness to act now question whether it retains the materiel to enforce
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Summit Set for White House on September 24
A leader level meeting between Washington and Beijing is scheduled at the White House, fixing a date around which several open files now cluster.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Israeli Gas Halt Exposes Egypt's Energy Import Dependence Amid Iran War
After the United States and Israel jointly attacked Iran, Israel shut down its Leviathan field in anticipation of retaliation and halted gas supply to Egypt. Flows fell from roughly one billion cubic feet per day to fifty million.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan Sign Mecca Joint Defence Agreement
Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan signed a collective defence pact in Mecca committing each signatory to treat an armed attack on one as an attack on all.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US Arms Transfer Bottleneck Constrains Gulf Air Defense Replenishment
Iranian missile and drone barrages on Gulf partners have drawn down advanced interceptor stocks faster than the US Foreign Military Sales process can replace them.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
US-Appointed Gaza Administration Stalls Before Assuming Control
The National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, created under Trump's 20-point plan to run day-to-day services until the Palestinian Authority completes reform, has not begun work more than seven months after its chief commissioner was appointed.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Trump Threatens Sweeping Secondary Economic Campaign Against Iran
The American president vowed a major economic campaign against Iran and against any entity doing business with the regime, using the phrase economic D-Day, as frustration mounts over the failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Emirati Suspension of Iran Transactions Becomes Test of US Pressure Campaign
The Emirates suspended financial and economic transactions with Iran following weeks of American pressure, making Dubai the decisive variable in whether Washington can force Iranian concessions.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US Interceptor and Standoff Missile Inventories Drawn Down by Iran War
American stocks of Patriot and THAAD interceptors, Tomahawks, ATACMS, and precision strike missiles have fallen sharply during the war with Iran, with THAAD reportedly down to a few hundred rounds and Tomahawks below roughly two thousand.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Withholds Endorsement of Netanyahu Ahead of Israeli Election
With roughly two months to Israel's election, the US president declined to endorse Netanyahu while signaling he might endorse someone.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US High-End Interceptor Stockpiles Depleted by Iran War
Sustained interceptor expenditure in the war with Iran has drawn down Patriot and THAAD inventories by as much as 80 percent by some accounts. Replacement runs on multi-year production timelines that cannot be compressed by decision.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Escalates Economic Pressure on Iran as Hormuz Blockade Holds
Washington is threatening measures it describes as never before seen, with analysts expecting secondary sanctions on Chinese oil buyers and further financial penalties, after the collapse of the June memorandum of understanding and the reimposition of the naval blockade.
Date unknown
Escalating
Cyber
Iranian-Linked Cyber Campaign Hits U.S. Water Utilities Across Twelve States
Minnesota authorities disclosed in late July that more than thirty water systems in the state had been attacked, with further state-level disclosures following.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iranian Attacks on Hormuz Shipping Mount Without U.S. Retaliation
Iranian forces have continued striking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz while the United States has withheld military retaliation.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
United States and Saudi Arabia Conclude 123 Civil Nuclear Agreement
Washington and Riyadh reached a 123 agreement governing civil nuclear cooperation, reportedly limiting Saudi procurement to American vendors with only secondary roles for their foreign suppliers.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Washington Recasts Iran War Aims Around Domestic Fuel Prices
In month six of a war planned for six weeks, the vice president named cheap oil and gas for Americans as the first objective and Iran's nuclear programme as the second, with the president publicly reordering them.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Rules-Based Order Decays Into Chokepoint Coercion and Un-Order
Washington has withdrawn support from the order it built while no successor power is willing to underwrite one, leaving fragmentation, contagion and chokepoint weaponisation to define the system.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Houthis Shut Mokha Port and Advance Toward Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi forces escalated attacks along Yemen's Red Sea coast, halting operations at the strategic port of Mokha and pushing closer to the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Exceed 13,000 Iranian Targets Without Conclusive Outcome
Operation Epic Fury has struck more than 13,000 Iranian military and industrial targets without bringing the conflict to a conclusive end, while Iranian strikes on US bases and Gulf partner infrastructure have made air and missile defense central to the theater.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Cyber
Coordinated Cyberattacks Target US Water Utilities Across a Dozen States
Cyberattacks against water and wastewater utilities were reported across at least twelve US states beginning in late July, with no widespread contamination or immediate threat to drinking water but clear signs of coordination.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
June Iran Cease-Fire Framework Collapses as U.S. Reverts to Sanctions and Naval Blockade
The 60-day framework from the June cease-fire has been abandoned without a nuclear deal or a reopened Strait of Hormuz, and the conflict has become a contest of economic endurance.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
U.S. Consulate in Toronto Attacked Twice by Contracted Teenagers Tied to an Iranian Proxy Network
Gunmen fired on the U.S. Consulate in downtown Toronto in March and again in late July, with arrests in early August traced to a guns-for-hire network in one north Toronto housing complex.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Chinese Refiner Sustains Iranian Sanctioned Crude Revenue
Hengli, a Chinese conglomerate employing more than 300,000 people with revenue above $100 billion across petrochemicals, textiles and shipbuilding, functions as a principal buyer sustaining Iranian oil revenue.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Cyber
Independent Tehran Debate Channel Tests Limits of Iranian Information Control
An independent Tehran outlet publishing long-form debates on YouTube has aired arguments for ending clerical rule by referendum and for restoring the exiled monarchy, weeks after security forces killed thousands of antigovernment protesters.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Intensifies Economic Pressure Campaign Against Iran
Senior US officials have intensified economic pressure on Iran, elevating lower oil prices to a top war priority and planning new financial sanctions.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Interceptor Stocks Depleted by the Iran War
Since February the Iran war has reportedly drawn down as much as three-fifths of US Patriot interceptor stocks and half of THAAD inventory, with Saudi Arabia's PAC-3 MSE inventory down roughly 86 percent.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Cyber
Coordinated Cyberattacks on U.S. Water Utilities Attributed to Iran-Linked Actors
Cyberattacks hit water utilities in at least 12 states and 100 municipalities, with an IRGC-linked hacktivist group claiming responsibility.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Papal Encyclical Declares Just War Theory Outdated in the Age of Autonomous Weapons
Pope Leo XIV's first encyclical argues just war theory is obsolete while setting out constraints on autonomous weapons that demand identifiable chains of responsibility and effective human control.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Air Campaign Against Iran Depletes Missile Stocks at Five-Month Mark
Five months into the war, the United States is running out of the high-technology missile systems its military advantage depends on after assuming Iran could be defeated from the air.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Singapore Sanctions Israeli Settlers While Preserving the Defence Relationship
Singapore imposed financial sanctions and travel bans on four Israelis over settler violence in the West Bank, an unprecedented step against a partner that built its armed forces from scratch after independence.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Positions Hormuz Control as a Permanent Condition of Any War Settlement
Iran retains dominance over the Strait of Hormuz regardless of the war's outcome because its coastline runs 167 kilometres along the northern shore.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran War Depletes U.S. Munitions Stockpiles and Erodes Gulf Security Guarantees
American forces have expended roughly 1,500 Patriot interceptors with about 1,700 remaining, close to eighty per cent of THAAD interceptors, virtually all long-range precision missiles, and around a quarter of the MQ-9 Reaper fleet.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Cyber
Iran-Linked Cyberattacks Target US Water Utilities Across Multiple States
Water providers in at least seven US states, and possibly a dozen, were targeted over two weeks in attacks on the programmable logic controllers that regulate water flow and chemical composition, with hackers changing passwords to lock out operators.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Chinese Export Controls Degrade US Weapons Production
Chinese export controls imposed since April 2025 require exporters to vet foreign buyers and reject sales destined for military use, effectively shutting American weapons manufacturers out of direct access to Chinese rare earths and derived products.
Date unknown
Stable
Institutional
Proposal Advances Digital Financial Architecture for Gaza Reconstruction
The brief proposes building Gaza's financial recovery on connectivity, digital identity and wallets rather than waiting for a political settlement, with tiered verification statuses of pass, under review and fail to handle fragmentary documentation.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran's Hormuz Closure Erodes Its Own Coercive Leverage as Supply Diversifies
The closure is imposing real cost, with inventories drawn down and products tight, but the article argues the cost is more endurable than the concessions Tehran wants for reopening. Energy markets adapt in ways nuclear capability does not.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Gulf Monarchies Revise Economic and Security Models After Iran War
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates built new cities, airlines, and diversified economies on a foundation of energy revenue paired with American security provision.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran War Depletes US Munitions and Constrains Indo-Pacific Options
Six months into Operation Epic Fury, the United States has damaged Iranian military capability significantly but expended much of its precision munitions stockpile and taken substantial damage to regional bases.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Pentagon Assessment Finds 153 Civilians Killed in US Strikes on Yemen
An internal Pentagon assessment transmitted to Congress concluded that three United States strikes on Yemen last year killed 153 civilians and wounded 243.
Date unknown
Stable
Sanctions
Iran Restructures Into a Survival Economy Under US Blockade
Iran is reorganising economic activity to keep functioning under sustained United States sanctions and a naval blockade rather than conceding to them.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
US-Iran Negotiations Stall Over Control of the Strait of Hormuz
Washington and Tehran remain deadlocked over terms that would determine whether Iran can toll and monetize the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Israeli Settlement Policy and PA Revenue Squeeze Push the West Bank Toward Rupture
At least 104 settlements have been legalized since the current Israeli government took office in 2022, with new outposts sited beside Palestinian villages and settler attacks on those villages rising.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes on US Regional Bases Shift Host Nation Politics
Iranian retaliation for US strikes has targeted American bases and access facilities in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, killing several US soldiers and affecting surrounding communities.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Mojtaba Khamenei Overhauls Iranian Security Command
Iran's new supreme leader has replaced the top tier of the national security establishment after February airstrikes by the United States and Israel killed his predecessor and nearly the entire senior leadership team.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Gulf States Deepen U.S. Security and Technology Ties After Iran War
After the Iran-U.S. ceasefire, Gulf Arab states questioned American reliability but expanded cooperation with Washington in air defense, intelligence sharing and military technology because no alternative supplier exists.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Israel Strikes Hezbollah Financial Infrastructure in Lebanon
Israeli aircraft leveled more than a dozen branches of the financial institution long treated as Hezbollah's bank, along with exchange shops Iran used to move money and gas stations generating group revenue.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
U.S. Withdrawal of Support Stalls Chagos Treaty With Mauritius
Washington withdrew its support for the treaty returning the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius shortly before attacking Iran, saying it would not relinquish control of the joint base at Diego Garcia.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Demands Exclusion of U.S. Warships to Reopen Hormuz
Iran has told mediators it will bar American warships from the Strait of Hormuz as a condition of any agreement to reopen the waterway to commercial traffic.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Strait of Hormuz Closed to International Shipping
American attacks on Iran have closed the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, killing eighteen American service members and an unknown number of Iranians while costing tens of billions of dollars.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Grand Strategy Breaks From the Post-Cold War Order
Two consecutive administrations moved the United States away from its role as guarantor of the international system, one through export controls, re-shoring and coalition-building, the other through tariffs on dozens of states, military campaigns against Iran, and open hostility toward treaty allies.
Date unknown
Stable
Military
Iran Retains Weapons-Grade Uranium Stockpile Despite Strikes on Nuclear Sites
Five months into the war, Iran retains a stockpile of roughly 970 pounds of uranium enriched to 60 percent held near Isfahan, sufficient for nine or ten weapons after weeks of processing.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
China Orders Firms to Disregard US Sanctions and EU Investigation
China's Ministry of Commerce ordered domestic firms to disregard United States sanctions against five refiners processing Iranian crude, and the Ministry of Justice declared the European Union's antisubsidy probe into a Chinese security firm an improper assertion of foreign jurisdiction.
Date unknown
Unclear
Political
Israel Heads to October Election on Regime Character
Israel's October 27 election is framed as a decision on whether the state remains a liberal democracy after four years in which the governing coalition pursued judicial overhaul, politicised the national police under National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, expanded Haredi privileges, and permitted record settler violence in the West Bank.
Date unknown
Unclear
Other
South Korea Faces Strategic Choice Amid Institutional Fragmentation
An analytical argument that the postwar order's three pillars, American security guarantees, democratic partnerships, and universal institutions, no longer reinforce one another, leaving states to operate across disconnected frameworks.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Gulf Pharmaceutical Localization Fails to Cut Import Exposure
National localization strategies in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE designated pharmaceuticals and medical technology as priority sectors, yet net imports rose significantly across all three from 2015 to 2025 as demand moved toward newer patented medicines.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Asian Oil and LNG Sourcing Shifts to US and Russian Supply
Almost 85 percent of Asia's oil imports and roughly 28 percent of its LNG moved through Hormuz before the war. Five months of disrupted transit has pushed Asian buyers toward American and Russian cargoes
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Europe Absorbs Iran War, Ukraine and Migration Shocks It Does Not Control
European leaders faced a compounding summer of an Iran war most never wanted, a Ukraine conflict unresolved after four years, record heat and wildfires, and an unexplained migration surge from Morocco into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
Illiberal States Shift From Defence to Building an Alternative Order
China, Russia, Iran and North Korea have shifted from defending themselves against liberal pressure to constructing the institutions of an alternative international order.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Munitions Inventories Strained After Five Months of Operation Epic Fury
Five months into Operation Epic Fury, launched in February, the United States has run its most munitions-intensive campaign in decades, consuming thousands of advanced offensive and defensive missiles.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Drone Attack on Egypt's Damietta Port
Egypt's Damietta Port was struck by a drone attack in late July, allegedly directed by Iran, in what would be the first foreign attack on Egyptian territory since 1973.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
China Launches the World AI Cooperation Organization in Shanghai
China founded the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization in Shanghai in July with 29 signatories including Russia, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan, covering nearly all BRICS members except India plus other Global South states and no major Western democracies.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran-Aligned Network Reconstitutes Despite United States and Israeli Campaign
Five months into the war that began in late February, Iran and its regional partners have reconstituted rather than collapsed.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Sudan Trades Red Sea Coastal Access for Foreign Weapons Supply
The government seated in Port Sudan since losing Khartoum in 2023 depends on foreign suppliers and has been willing to discuss port access as part of the payment.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
United States Loses Control Over the Wars It Arms
Washington more than tripled annual security assistance from 15 billion dollars in 2010 to 46 billion in 2025, backing partner wars in Yemen, Ukraine and Gaza while supplying the overwhelming share of hardware, intelligence and diplomatic cover.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Majority of U.S. Voters Doubt Integrity of November Midterm Elections
Gallup found 67 percent of more than 23,000 voters concerned that political leaders will pressure election officials to change outcomes, 57 percent worried about ballot handling, and 52 percent about intimidation at polling places.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Saudi and Emirati Coordination Signals Gulf Attempt to Replace U.S. Deterrence
Senior Saudi and Emirati officials released apparently coordinated messages affirming close ties after months of friction, as the region faces simultaneous crises at Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Authoritarian Cooperation Hardens Into Durable Institutional Architecture
Illiberal states have moved from ad hoc military support to a two-track institutional programme: creating new multilateral bodies and coordinating positions inside existing ones.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran's Kheibar Shekan Missile Complicates U.S. Regional Defenses
Iran's Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile, with a range of roughly 900 miles, places the entire Middle East and targets beyond it within reach and has become the workhorse of Iranian strikes during the war.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Defense Leadership Faulted for Hormuz Unpreparedness and Drone Lag
The U.S. defense secretary publicly rejected congressional attribution of responsibility for the failure in the Iran war in late July, having earlier called press coverage unpatriotic.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Munitions Depletion in Iran War Exposes Structural Industrial Base Limits
About half the initial inventory of Patriot, THAAD and PrSM and about a third of JASSM, SM-2/3/6 and Tomahawk have been expended, enough remaining for any plausible Iran scenario but not for a subsequent war with China, Russia or North Korea.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Trump Threatens Infrastructure Strikes for Each Iranian Attack on Hormuz Shipping
The U.S. president announced that any Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz would be answered by destroying one bridge or power plant, including targets in or beside Tehran.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Lebanese Army Deploys to First Pilot Zones in South Lebanon
The Lebanese army has deployed to three southern towns forming the first pilot zone, including one from which Israel withdrew, and has begun clearing ordnance, collecting weapons, recovering bodies and surveying damage.
Date unknown
Escalating
Cyber
Cyprus Arrests Suspect Accused of Surveilling RAF Akrotiri for Iran
A dual British and Azerbaijani citizen was arrested in Cyprus on accusations that he conducted hostile surveillance on RAF Akrotiri and shared details with the Revolutionary Guards.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Drone Attack Strikes Ships at Egypt's Damietta Port
A drone attack caused an explosion and fire aboard two ships at Damietta Port on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, one of them a United States gas storage tanker, according to Egyptian authorities.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Emerges Strengthened as the 2026 Ceasefire Fails to Reset the Region
The United States and Israel began a war against Iran in February 2026 intended to break its power or its regime, and ended it with a June ceasefire that left the Islamic Republic in place, its nuclear program unconstrained by concrete obligation, and Revolutionary Guard figures dominant in Tehran.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Gulf States Move to Diversify Security Partners After Iranian Strikes
Iranian strikes on Gulf states during the war with the United States drove their governments toward wider defense industrial and security partnerships beyond Washington, with Pakistan, Turkey, European states and South Korea named as likely suppliers.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Jordanian Figures Sign Open Letter Demanding U.S. Troop Withdrawal
Hundreds of Jordanian political, legal and public figures signed an open letter calling for the withdrawal of the roughly 4,000 American troops based in the kingdom, arguing the presence drags Jordan into a war it is not party to.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Iran Rejects Omani Proposal to Split Control of Strait of Hormuz
Tehran refused an Omani formula that would have divided authority over the Strait of Hormuz on even terms, demanding a larger share of control over the waterway.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Hormuz Conflict Produces No Lasting Renminbi Shift in Energy Trade
Renminbi payment volumes moved with the Hormuz conflict but did not shift structurally. CIPS average daily volume jumped nearly 50 percent from February to a March 2026 record 920.5 billion renminbi
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
P5 Job Trades Shape UN Secretary-General Succession
As secretive Security Council straw polling begins on Guterres's successor, a report based on more than 40 interviews documents that all five permanent members have traded support for senior UN appointments across the organization's history.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Gulf States Reassess US Security Partnership After Iran War
Gulf states are fundamentally reassessing their security strategies after absorbing unprecedented Iranian attacks and finding Washington had not consulted them before launching the Iran campaign or negotiating its ceasefire.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
Iran Stages Khamenei Funeral as Ceasefire Unravels
Iran staged funeral ceremonies in Tehran and Mashhad for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed at the onset of the US and Israeli attacks in late February, timing the mourning to coincide with Muharram and folding the war's losses into the Shia narrative of martyrdom.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Houthis End Truce and Blockade Saudi Red Sea Shipping
The Houthis blockaded Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, attacking two Saudi ships and Aramco oil infrastructure, and launched ballistic missiles and drones at southern Saudi Arabia after Saudi-backed Yemeni forces struck the runway at Sana'a airport.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
China Sustains Mideast Oil Imports Through Chokepoint Disruption
Wartime disruption at two Middle Eastern shipping chokepoints has unsettled global energy markets, yet China has continued to secure crude from the region.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Resumes Strikes on Iranian Civilian Infrastructure
With the April 8 ceasefire broken, the United States has again struck Iranian civilian infrastructure including bridges, health facilities, water desalination plants, sewage systems, and residential areas.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Israel's Conflict Management Doctrine Collapses Across Gaza, Lebanon and Iran
The strategy of managing rather than resolving the Palestinian question has produced simultaneous failure across three theatres.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Turkey Explores Sale of Its S-400 Systems to Gulf Buyers
Ankara is reported to be in preliminary talks to transfer two S-400 systems and 120 interceptors, with the UAE and Qatar named as candidates and Russian end-user consent still outstanding.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Horn of Africa Conflicts Converge on the Bab el-Mandeb Corridor
Sudan's war is merging with the Ethiopia and Eritrea rivalry as Asmara backs Tigrayan and anti-government forces while the Rapid Support Forces open a Blue Nile front bordering South Sudan's Nuer insurgency.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
American Blockade and Sanctions Deepen Iran's Economic Crisis Without Political Concession
Iran's government put war losses at 270 billion dollars while outside estimates range from 50 to 300 billion, with more than fifty military sites damaged and nearly a fifth of the industrial base hit.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Mediated Lebanon-Israel Track Advances After Trump-Aoun Meeting
Lebanon's president met the U.S. president at the White House, and the next round of U.S.-mediated Lebanon-Israel talks is set for August 4 in Rome under a Trilateral Framework.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Ukrainian Drones Strike Russia-Iran Military Supply Vessels in Caspian Sea
Ukrainian drones hit cargo vessels moving military supplies between Russia and Iran across the Caspian, a route that had stayed outside the reach of the war.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran War Breaks American Escalation Dominance at the Strait of Hormuz
Iran's campaign around Hormuz has demonstrated that cheap commercially derived drones and dispersed mobile launchers can outlast concentrated American and Israeli strikes.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iranian Islands Anchor Revolutionary Guard Control of the Strait of Hormuz
Three Iranian islands underpin Tehran's ability to price and interrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Qeshm, at 580 square miles with an extensive tunnel network and direct submarine access to the Gulf
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
American Post-Cold War Hegemony Assessed as Ended
The author dates the end of American hegemony to within the last two years, closing an era that began in 1989 and began unravelling with the 2003 Iraq invasion.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Israeli and American War Aims on Iran Diverge as Washington Pursues Agreement
Washington and Jerusalem now want different outcomes from the same war. The United States is pursuing an agreement centred on freeing movement through the Strait of Hormuz
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
European Union Splits Over Import Ban on Israeli Settlement Goods
European Union member states are divided over restricting imports from Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territory, with the argument conducted on procedural and legal grounds.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
United States Signals Expanded Target Set Against Iranian Nuclear Remnants
Washington signalled that a threatened new large-scale attack on Iran could reach beyond the previously struck site to the surviving components of Iran's nuclear programme.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Tehran Street Economy Contracts Through Protest, War and Khamenei Mourning Closures
Vendors on Tehran's Enghelab Street have closed repeatedly through a sequence of protests over inflation and a collapsing currency, a deadly crackdown, a nationwide communications blackout, war with the United States, and days of mourning for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed with several family members in joint United States and Israeli strikes at the opening of the war.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Employs Kheibar Shekan Missiles in Complex Strikes on U.S. Bases
Iran is using Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles against United States bases in attacks structured to defeat air defences through varied flight paths rather than volume alone.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US and Iran Escalate While Reaching the Limits of Military Coercion
The United States and Iran continue to escalate militarily while both approach the ceiling of achievable outcomes through force.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran War Stalemate Calcifies as Both Escalation and Withdrawal Prove Unattractive
Five months into the fight for the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway is neither open nor closed and a ceasefire is punctuated by near-daily attacks.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
US and Iran Sustain Simultaneous Strikes and Negotiations Over Hormuz
Iran is striking tankers and launching missiles at Kuwait and Qatar while the United States hits Iranian port facilities, and both continue negotiating throughout. The pattern is method rather than breakdown.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
US Strikes on Iranian Civilian Infrastructure Trigger Gulf Water and Power Retaliation
A mid-July American strike damaged the desalination facility at Bonji in western Jask county, cutting drinking water to roughly 10,000 people across twenty villages during peak summer heat, as part of a wider assault on southern Iranian infrastructure including roads, bridges and railways that also carry food, fuel and medicine.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Weighs Limited Ground Operations in Iran as Air Campaign Stalls
With airstrikes failing to break Tehran's position and the war now largely a fight for control of the Strait of Hormuz, Washington has deployed additional special operations forces and medics to expand its options while refusing to rule out ground forces.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Washington Installs Centralizing Strongmen Across Iraq, Syria and Lebanon
Trump hosted Iraq's Ali al-Zaidi in mid-July and Lebanon's Joseph Aoun this week, after meeting Syria's Ahmed al-Sharaa at the NATO summit, completing a set of personally backed Levant leaders.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
War and Economic Collapse Put Iranian Society in Survival Mode
Renewed US bombardment has destroyed highways, bridges, power networks, and a water desalination facility across southern Iran, leaving residents without running water amid 120-degree heat, while the currency plunges and unemployment soars.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Sustains Hormuz Disruption Despite Massed U.S.-Israeli Strikes
Despite US and Israeli strikes destroying thousands of targets across southern Iran, Tehran continues to disperse, hide, and rebuild mobile drone and missile launchers faster than they can be eliminated, keeping the Strait of Hormuz strategically unreliable.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
U.S. Faces Two-Year Window to Set Global Industrial AI Standards in Energy
Industrial AI deployment in energy is consolidating around an architecture of generative, agentic, and edge layers already running autonomously in Saudi Arabia's Khurais field, Shell's deepwater platforms, and ADNOC's refineries, with procurement cycles closing in the next twenty-four months set to lock in standards for a decade.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China Cuts Fossil Fuel Imports to Moderate Oil Prices During Hormuz Closure
China has massively reduced fossil fuel imports in the months since the Strait of Hormuz closure, the largest single factor keeping oil prices below the levels analysts expected.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Iran's Hormuz Stranglehold Forces U.S. Toward Settlement on Tehran's Terms
Despite more than 13,000 targets struck, Iran retains thousands of long-range drones and missiles capable of keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed from deep inside its territory, giving its hardline leadership a stranglehold over the world economy.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
CFR Codifies Chokepoint Crisis Doctrine From Active Hormuz Closure
The Council on Foreign Relations published a decision playbook for chokepoint crises, synthesizing the ongoing Hormuz closure with the Red Sea, Black Sea, Tanker War, and Somali piracy cases into four strategic orientations: monitor, contain, compel, restore.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Japan Reassesses Energy Security After Hormuz Closure Shock
Japan, which produces only 13 percent of its own energy, has navigated the Hormuz closure and the largest oil market disruption in history without crisis, drawing on stockpiles, planning, and a long-standing commitment to maintain domestic refining capacity sufficient for national demand.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Renewed U.S. Air Offensive Fails to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
The United States has flown eleven straight days of airstrikes against Iranian infrastructure, ports, and military installations after a brief ceasefire collapsed, aiming to degrade Iran's ability to interdict Hormuz shipping.
Date unknown
Stable
Alliance
China Balances CRINK Alignment Against Global Power Ambitions
CSIS assesses that China is holding its Russia, Iran, and North Korea relationships at arm's length even while providing indirect support, including reported satellite information to Iran in its war against Israel and the United States.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Infrastructure Over Hormuz Ship Attacks
President Trump publicly committed the United States to destroying an Iranian bridge or power plant for every Iranian attack on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
Israel Sets Most Consequential General Election for October 27
The Knesset set Israel's general election for October 27, the last legally permitted date, after parties could not agree on an earlier one.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
US-Iran June Ceasefire Memorandum Collapses
The memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran in June, meant to halt fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and create a 60-day negotiating window, has fallen apart, with both sides again exchanging missiles and drones and commerce through the strait shut down.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Hormuz Reclosure and Houthi Blockade Strain Depleted Global Oil Buffers
With the US-Iran ceasefire broken, the Strait of Hormuz has been reclosed and the Houthis have imposed a maritime embargo on ships calling at Saudi ports, stressing an oil system whose shock absorbers are largely spent.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Attacks Force US Basing Repositioning Away From the Gulf
Iranian missile and drone attacks on US bases in the Gulf have killed at least seventeen US service members, injured roughly five hundred, and destroyed billions in equipment, exposing the vulnerability of installations sited 60 to 170 miles from Iran.
Date unknown
Stable
Military
Israel Abstains From Renewed US Bombing Campaign Against Iran
As the US-Iran conflict reignites, Israel is deliberately sitting out the American bombing campaign rather than joining strikes as it did in earlier rounds.
Date unknown
Stable
Sanctions
France Restricts Israeli Exhibitors at Eurosatory Arms Show
French officials barred Israeli government representatives from the Eurosatory arms show, limited Israeli displays to air and missile defense, and erected physical barriers around non-compliant exhibits, citing Israel's operations in Gaza and Lebanon and settler violence in the West Bank.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Strikes on Kuwaiti Water and Energy Plants Expose Gulf Desalination Vulnerability
Several days of airstrikes attributed by Kuwait to Iran have hit water and energy plants, igniting fires and suspending operations at facilities in a country drawing 90 percent of its drinking water from desalination.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
US-Iran Conflict Resumes in Escalation Trap
Conflict between the US and Iran has resumed after the collapse of their memorandum of understanding, with both sides caught in an escalation pattern and oil prices rising.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Collapse of US-Iran MOU Locks In Escalation Cycle
The memorandum of understanding that paused the US-Iran war has collapsed, with each side having read the document as the other's surrender: Washington expected capitulation from overwhelming strength while Tehran believed it won the war and held new Hormuz leverage.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
US-Israel Campaign Against Iran Fails to Achieve War Objectives
Nearly five months into the US-Israeli military campaign, Iran's regime has not collapsed, its military capability continues to generate strikes across multiple theaters including recent attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, and Jordan, and its negotiating red lines have expanded rather than softened.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
103 House Democrats Vote to Suspend US Military Aid to Israel
A vote by 103 House Democrats to suspend US military aid to Israel crystallized the erosion of bipartisan American support, following primary victories by harsh Israel critics and the death of Sen.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
CSIS Testimony Warns US Homeland Sanctuary Has Ended
Testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence assessed that the US faces a serious and growing homeland threat from an authoritarian axis anchored by China and including Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran Talks Collapse Into Renewed Stalemated War
The mid-June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran has collapsed: negotiations stalled, fighting resumed, U.S. sanctions were reimposed and U.S. warships again blockade Iran, returning the war to the stalemate that preceded the ceasefire.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Gulf States Conclude China Will Not Underwrite Regional Security
The Iran war has crystallized a Gulf-wide reassessment of China: despite $300 billion in annual trade and its role as guarantor of the 2023 Saudi-Iran detente, Beijing declined to use its leverage over Tehran to restrain attacks on Gulf states, vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on protecting Hormuz shipping, and reportedly tolerated Chinese firms aiding Iranian targeting.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Weighs Once-Unthinkable Options to Disarm Hezbollah
U.S., Israeli and Lebanese officials are examining disarmament options for Hezbollah that were previously considered politically impossible, including the potential use of local or foreign forces.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Assessed to Have Moved Centrifuges Into Pickaxe Mountain
Israeli intelligence believes Iran relocated thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges into deep tunnels inside Pickaxe Mountain in the fall of 2025, according to Israeli and U.S. officials.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Hormuz Toll Dispute Erodes Freedom of Navigation Principle
The U.S.-Iran MOU's language granting Iran a role in defining future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, followed by Trump's floated and withdrawn 20 percent shipping fee, signals U.S. ambivalence about the freedom-of-navigation principle it enforced for two centuries.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
Suwayda Entrenches De Facto Autonomy From Damascus
Syrian state symbols have vanished from Suwayda, where Druze factions enforce security and spiritual leader Hikmat al-Hijri declares the province is pursuing independence.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Afghanistan, Iran, and Tajikistan Sign Transit Corridor Framework
Afghan, Iranian, and Tajik officials signed an operational framework agreement in Mashhad establishing a transit corridor connecting Tajikistan through Afghanistan to Iranian seaports, expected to terminate at Bandar Abbas or Chabahar, with a pilot shipment within a month.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Gulf and Global South Recalibrate U.S. Ties After Iran War
CSIS analysis finds the U.S.-Iran war has accelerated partner diversification away from exclusive reliance on Washington.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Australia Extends Gulf Defense Role as Iran War Reorders Indian Ocean Security
Responding to an Emirati request, Australia deployed an E-7A Wedgetail early-warning aircraft and 85 personnel to the Persian Gulf to help intercept Iranian missiles, a de facto extension of its security perimeter into the Northwestern Indian Ocean.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Iran Surges $6 Billion Oil Export Push During Truce Window
In the weeks after the US lifted its blockade under the mid-June truce, Iran dispatched about 20 tankers carrying roughly 70 million barrels of oil worth some $6 billion toward Asia, with hulls massing off Malaysia's east coast, a familiar transshipment zone for sanctioned crude.
Date unknown
Stable
Cyber
Israel Mounts Society-Wide Campaign Against Iranian Recruitment Network
Israeli authorities, backed by rabbis and ultra-Orthodox influencers enlisted by security officials, are running a public countermeasure campaign against Iranian intelligence's mass recruitment of informants inside Israel.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Gulf Shipping Attacks Turn Deadly for Merchant Crews
Attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz have made the past week one of the deadliest for merchant sailors since the US-Iran war began.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Flawed Hormuz Ceasefire Text Collapses Into Renewed US-Iran Conflict
The two-page US-Iran ceasefire agreement signed by Trump and Pezeshkian collapsed after Iran used its vague best-efforts language to assert managerial control over the Strait of Hormuz through a transit-permit authority and approved corridors, enforcing them with force arguably within the text, while the US worked to deny that control and then struck Iranian territory in explicit breach of the agreement's force prohibition.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
UNIFIL Wind-Down Forces Scramble Over Lebanon Stabilization Force
With UNIFIL's mandate ending in December 2026, the UN has tabled three replacement options ranging from 2,000 to 5,500 troops with varying joint-operation authorities, while France assembles a coalition of the willing, Italy pledges bilateral continuity, and Washington moves Centcom into verification of Hezbollah's phased disarmament under the trilateral framework.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Iran War Accelerates Chinese Strategic Gains Across Three Fronts
The war has advanced three long-held Chinese goals at minimal cost: Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia are seeking balance through dialogue with Iran and deeper China ties, global energy insecurity is driving demand into solar, battery, and EV industries China dominates, and renminbi settlement expanded as Iran conditioned some Hormuz transit on non-dollar payment.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US Weighs Escalation Options as Iran Holds Hormuz Leverage
Five months into the war, Washington's aims remain unresolved between toppling the regime and degrading its military, while Iran's IRGC-dominated leadership treats control of Hormuz as leverage worth more than nuclear weapons.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Iran Signals Diplomatic Opening With Prisoner Release Amid Hormuz War
Tehran released an Iranian American citizen and its chief negotiator hinted at openness to talks, cracking the diplomatic door despite the shattered ceasefire and the battle for the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Latin American Oil Exporters Gain Leverage From Hormuz Disruption
The Iran war's disruption of Hormuz flows has rerouted energy demand toward Latin America's conflict-distant producers, lifting growth projections for Brazil and sustaining booms in Argentina and Guyana.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trilateral Framework Deal Tests Lebanon's War-Peace Balance
Israel, the US, and Lebanon signed a trilateral framework deal in June and met again in July on implementation, including Israeli withdrawal from occupied parts of south Lebanon.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iran War Fallout Drives Layoffs Across Dubai's Migrant Economy
Months of Iranian missile and drone retaliation against the UAE have depressed Dubai's tourism and aviation economy, triggering layoffs and wage cuts concentrated among the migrant workers who make up roughly 90 percent of the city's population.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iran War Disrupts Saudi Arabia's Transformation Drive
A former US ambassador's essay frames the Iran war as a rupture arriving in the middle of Saudi Arabia's decade-long social and economic transformation.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
CFR Charts Structural Erosion of Russian Power
The assessment finds Russia's great-power foundations eroding under the weight of the Ukraine war: growth has collapsed below 1 percent as war stimulus exhausts itself, casualties above 1.2 million compound flat demographics, and innovation investment lags far behind leading powers.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Ukraine Deploys Counter-Drone Specialists to Gulf States After Iranian Strikes
After Iranian drones struck oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, LNG facilities in Qatar, and fuel terminals in the UAE and Bahrain, Ukraine moved in spring 2026 to export its battle-tested energy-defense expertise, deploying over two hundred counter-drone specialists to the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan.
Date unknown
Stable
Military
Trump Threatens Strikes on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain Nuclear Complex
President Trump has publicly threatened military strikes on Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried complex under construction near a major Iranian nuclear site, as he escalates rhetoric against Tehran.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Iran Permits Long-Held U.S. Citizen to Leave the Country
Iran allowed an American citizen to go free after preventing her from leaving the country for roughly a year and a half. President Trump called the move a gesture of good will amid the wider confrontation.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Collapses as Hormuz Standoff Hardens
The memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran collapsed in under a month, the ceasefire is broken, and the Strait of Hormuz remains bottled up.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Coercive Credibility Erodes Under Threat-First Doctrine
Trump's second-term record shows a pattern: threats against at least 20 countries, coercive campaigns that failed against Iran, Russia, and trade partners, and brute-force substitutes when coercion stalled, including the January capture of Maduro and strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Analysts Warn Drone and AI Warfare Erodes U.S. Military Dominance
Defense analyst Paul Scharre argues that recent wars validate a structural shift in warfare. In Iran, a state weakened by years of strikes, sanctions
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iran War Framed as America's Next Forever War
The New York Times' chief diplomatic correspondent frames the five-month Iran war as following the Iraq and Afghanistan pattern: an open-ended campaign without an achievable definition of victory, entered by a president elected on the promise of avoiding exactly this.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes on Gulf Datacenters Undermine Gulf-US AI Partnership
Iranian drone strikes hit three AWS datacenters, two in the UAE and one in Bahrain, disrupting banking and payments across a region of 50 million and prompting AWS to advise clients to consider migrating workloads out of the Middle East.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Emanuel Breaks With No-Daylight Israel Policy in 2028 Positioning
Rahm Emanuel, a leading Democratic centrist positioning for 2028, is publicly institutionalizing a break with the no-daylight US-Israel posture: conditioning weapons funding, calling West Bank settler violence a strategic disaster in terms borrowed from a letter by 100 Israeli generals and Shin Bet leaders, and citing polls showing Israel at 32 percent US support and 21 percent among under-30s.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iran War Fallout Pushes North Africa Toward Economic Instability
The resumption of US-Iran fighting on July 8 has reimposed the Hormuz supply shock on North African economies that spent their buffers in the first round: Tunisia nearly depleted emergency reserves when oil passed 100 dollars against a 63 dollar budget assumption, and Egypt imposed nighttime blackouts after Israel declared force majeure on gas exports.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
US and Iran Split over Vague Hormuz Clause in Memorandum
The 14-point US-Iran memorandum's fifth clause, in which Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only, has become the war's interpretive fault line.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Fires on Omani-Route Shipping, Collapsing Hormuz Truce
Iran fired on vessels using the southern route through Omani territorial waters after concluding Washington was establishing it as the new normal to reduce Iranian control over Hormuz, triggering the biggest US bombardment inside Iran in months and Trump's declaration that the ceasefire was over.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Israel Stuck in Strategic Limbo as US-Iran Conflict Cycles
Israel remains sidelined as the US and Iran cycle between negotiations and strikes in the Gulf, its military already engaged in Lebanon and Gaza and unable to plan around the on-again, off-again conflict.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US Exit Options Narrow in Iran War
A briefing frames the central question of the US-Iran war as Trump's exit strategy and answers that options are shrinking fast, with the plan reduced to wresting control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Israel Sidelined in Uneasy Limbo as US-Iran Hostilities Resume
As the US and Iran resume strikes over Hormuz, Israel remains on the sidelines in strategic limbo: its goals diverge from Washington's, since Trump seeks only to reopen the strait and force Iran back to the table while Israel fears any deal that omits Iranian missiles and proxy support, as June's memorandum did.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
US Grants UAE Expanded AI Chip Access for Iran War Support
Washington expanded UAE access to coveted AI chips as a reward for direct military participation in the war against Iran, including airstrikes, interception of hundreds of missiles, and keeping oil flowing through Hormuz.
Date unknown
Stable
Political
Iran Muddles Through Succession While Making Hormuz Control Its Core Demand
With the sixty-day MOU dead and the US formally back at war, Iran's regime is navigating an unprecedented internal moment: Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in the war's opening strikes and succeeded by his son Mojtaba, who has yet to appear in public, while hardliners and pragmatists split openly between negotiation and asserting control of the strait by force.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Pivots Selective Strikes to Bahrain and Kuwait to Exploit Gulf Divides
Since the April 8 ceasefire, Iran shifted its Gulf targeting from the UAE, recipient of nearly half the 7,000-plus missiles and drones fired between February and June, to sustained strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait, calibrated to signal resolve without triggering a decisive US response.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Allies and Global South Reassess American Power After US-Iran War
CSIS analysts assess that the US-Iran war has triggered a broad reassessment of American power: favorability has declined even in close allies such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea, though these states still treat US presence as essential to regional stability.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
US Resumes Strikes and Blockade to Control Strait of Hormuz
President Trump ordered a return to strikes and a reimposed blockade in the Strait of Hormuz after the interim peace agreement with Iran, signed only weeks earlier, fell apart.
Date unknown
Stable
Cyber
CSIS Assessment Finds Russia-Iran Cyber Collaboration Claims Overstated
A CSIS analysis finds that reported Russia-Iran cyber collaboration in the 2026 US-Iran conflict, including alleged Telegram coordination between Russian groups like NoName057(16) and Iran's Handala Hack and shared hosting infrastructure, stems largely from an unverified Ukrainian intelligence assessment and does not substantiate state-level joint cyber operations.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
Trump Requests Record $1.5 Trillion US Defense Budget for 2027
Trump's 2027 budget request seeks $1.5 trillion for defense, nearly double the 2022 budget, more than the next 18 nations combined, and about 4.6 percent of GDP, the biggest surge since the Korean War.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Iranian Nationalist Surge Blocks Hormuz Deal Implementation
A wave of nationalist sentiment inside Iran is drowning out the diplomats who negotiated the preliminary June deal to wind down the war, with critics attacking the agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a betrayal of Iranian interests.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Israeli Occupation Entrenches in Southern Lebanon as Withdrawal Deal Stalls
Israel occupies Lebanese territory stretching more than six miles deep, has razed border towns like Houla, and conditions its gradual withdrawal under a preliminary agreement on the disarmament of Hezbollah, which rejected the deal it was excluded from negotiating.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
U.S. and Iran Probe Coexistence as Interim Agreement Frays
Despite more than 300 recent U.S. strikes and Iranian retaliation against at least five regional states, senior American and Iranian officials have met directly for the first time in nearly a decade and are discussing a military deconfliction hotline, which would be the first such channel since 1979.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Ukrainian Drone Campaign Degrades Russian Army and Oil Industry
Ukraine's expanding drone campaign is inflicting growing damage on Russia's army and its oil industry, undercutting the attrition strategy Moscow has relied on for four years.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Iran Prioritizes Hormuz Control Over US Sanctions Relief
Tehran has signaled that keeping a chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz outranks tens of billions of dollars in sanctions relief among its priorities.
Date unknown
Stable
Political
Iran Holds Khamenei State Funeral in Mashhad as US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses
Iran buried supreme leader Ali Khamenei in Mashhad after a week of official mass mourning, four months after joint US and Israeli strikes killed him at the start of the war.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iranian Vessels Maintain Hormuz Transit Amid Renewed US-Iran Fighting
Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran disrupted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz this week, yet Iranian vessels continued to transit while other commercial traffic snarled.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Gulf States Anchor Multi-Alignment Security Strategy at Ankara NATO Summit
Leaders from Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE attended the NATO Summit in Ankara as Istanbul Cooperation Initiative participants, formalizing a pattern in which Gulf states supplement rather than replace US protection with European, Turkish, Ukrainian, South Korean, and Pakistani capabilities.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Ukraine's Decentralized Drone Ecosystem Freezes Front and Spreads Globally
In the war's fifth year, Ukraine's front-brewing ecosystem, small workshops shipping designs to front-line technicians who rework them and feed lessons back to industry, has generated update cycles as short as three weeks, substantially frozen the front, and enabled interdiction of Russian logistics.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Netanyahu Campaigns Against Prospective U.S. F-35 Sale to Turkey
With Trump hinting he may sell F-35s to Turkey after the Ankara NATO summit, Netanyahu has made Ankara his top talking point, telling CNN that Turkey is a regime infected with the Muslim Brotherhood and confirming he warned Trump the sale would upset the regional balance.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
Iraqi Militias Exit Popular Mobilization Forces as Baghdad Reasserts Control
Saraya al-Salam fighters handed weapons to the Iraqi government in Samarra in early June, exiting the Popular Mobilization Forces, and Asaib Ahl al-Haq announced it would follow, committing to integration under state command.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Gaza Peacekeeping Force Launches Far Below Trump's 20,000-Troop Target
The multinational stabilization force planned for Gaza is deploying well short of the 20,000 troops Trump wanted. The first contingent, Moroccan soldiers originally due in June
Date unknown
De-escalating
Cyber
Israel Shares Intelligence on Alleged Iranian Plot to Kill Trump
Israel passed new intelligence to Washington that it said pointed to a fresh Iranian plan to assassinate President Trump.
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
US and Chinese Strategic Postures Converge Around MENA Division of Labor
US and Chinese positions in MENA are converging on a shared interest in trade stability, with a division of labor: Washington supplies the security regime, holding 64.3 percent of 2025 regional arms imports and a dense base network, while Beijing dominates trade at $288 billion with the GCC versus $86 billion for the US, leads BRI infrastructure investment, and enjoys 64.3 percent favorability against 32.8 percent for the US.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Israeli Occupation Destroys American-Owned Properties in Southern Lebanon
Israeli forces occupying the southern Lebanese town of Bint Jbeil destroyed dozens of properties owned by American citizens, documented through satellite imagery, on-the-ground visuals, and homeowner interviews.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Renewed US-Iran Hostilities Strain June 17 Memorandum of Understanding
The June 17 Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, the framework underpinning the post-war truce, is being tested by renewed hostilities.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Phased Restart of Gulf Energy Flows Through Contested Hormuz
The interim U.S.-Iran agreement opened a phased restart of Gulf oil and gas exports after a shut-in of more than 10 million barrels per day of oil and roughly 300 million cubic meters per day of LNG lasting over 100 days.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Beijing Frames Global Disorder as Strategic Opportunity
China's leadership interprets the current turmoil, including uncertain U.S. commitments to allies, U.S. military action in the Middle East and Western Hemisphere, deepening Russia-North Korea ties, and middle-power hedging, as confirmation of Xi Jinping's doctrine of great change unseen in a century.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
UN Marginalization Deepens Amid Secretary-General Contest
The United Nations is absent from the major live confrontations, including the Ukraine war and the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, while facing a liquidity crisis its own leadership candidates describe as a crisis of member-state confidence.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Munitions Stockpiles Depleted by Iran War Expenditures
U.S. expenditure of long-range munitions and air-defense interceptors during Operation Epic Fury has drawn stockpiles below prewar levels that were already judged insufficient for a peer conflict.
Date unknown
Stable
Legal
Strategic Litigation Project Expands Multi-Theater Atrocity Accountability Campaign
A civil-society legal campaign intensifies external accountability pressure on Iran, Russia, China, and the former Assad government, converting documented atrocities into prospective prosecutions and treaty codification.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
ICC Moves to Remove Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan Over Misconduct Findings
An internal Bureau report found beyond a reasonable doubt that ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan committed sexual harassment and abused his authority, and the Bureau suspended him pending a member-state vote on removal set for July 24.
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
Hormuz Shock Accelerates Geopolitical Restructuring of Global Energy Trade
The war that began February 28 turned the Strait of Hormuz, carrier of a fifth of world oil and gas, into a gauntlet many vessels would not attempt, and the US-Iran agreement that reopened it has not restored confidence that the route is safe.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
Iran Stages Choreographed State Funeral for Khamenei to Project Continuity
Iran's government is running a dayslong, heavily choreographed funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran, saturating the capital with Shia martyrdom symbolism, red vengeance flags, memorials to 168 children killed in an early-war school strike, and closed-fist defiance imagery.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China's Consolidation of the Fluorine Value Chain as Economic Leverage
China dominates the fluorine value chain, producing roughly 69 percent of global fluorite and over half of high-purity hydrofluoric acid, fluoropolymers, and specialty fluorochemicals essential to semiconductors, batteries, aerospace, and uranium enrichment.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US Bipartisan Support for Israel Fractures Amid Falling Favorability
US favorability toward Israel has fallen to a record low, with 60 percent of American adults holding an unfavorable view and criticism rising among both Democrats and a growing minority of Republicans.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Israel Recalibration and the Case for Palestinian Statehood
The essay documents unprecedented strain in the US-Israel relationship, marked by 40 Democratic senators voting to block an arms sale and a fracturing Republican coalition after the Iran war, and argues Washington must use its leverage to help build a Palestinian state.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump's Backing Eases NATO Pressure on Erdogan Ahead of Ankara Summit
President Trump has made his admiration for Turkish President Erdogan conspicuous ahead of the NATO summit Turkey is hosting, telling NATO's secretary-general in the Oval Office that the Ankara venue was a factor in his own attendance plans.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
US Disengagement From European Security Overshadows NATO's Ankara Summit
NATO members arrive at the Ankara summit with the Trump administration visibly reducing its involvement in European security: troop and equipment drawdowns, private warnings that allied orders from US contractors will be delayed while Washington restocks after the Iran war, and public breaks with the British, Italian, and German leaders.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Iran War Strains U.S.-Saudi Security Partnership and Stalls Israel Normalization
The 2026 U.S. war on Iran, launched with minimal Saudi consultation, exposed the limits of Riyadh's upgraded partnership with Washington.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Kazakhstan Plans Trade Terminal at Iran's Bandar Abbas Amid Central Asian Route Diversification
Kazakhstan plans a privately funded 15-hectare export terminal at Iran's Bandar Abbas, shipping via Aktau and Turkmenistan to reach Indian Ocean, Gulf, and Southeast Asian markets, betting sanctions on Iran will ease.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Middle East Fast-Tracks Overland Corridors to Bypass the Strait of Hormuz
Gulf and Levant states are accelerating rail and pipeline corridors and reviving IMEC coordination to reduce dependence on the Hormuz chokepoint after wartime disruption.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Xi Hosts Back-to-Back Trump and Putin Summits to Advance Alternative Order Vision
China staged consecutive Beijing summits in May: Trump's visit revealed a bilateral relationship reframed on Beijing's terms as constructive strategic stability, and days later Xi and Putin issued a joint declaration on a new type of international relations calling for equal and orderly multilateralism.
Date unknown
Stable
Political
Iran Stages Delayed State Funeral for Khamenei as Succession Legitimation Event
Iran began a weeklong funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei four months after he was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes in February, an extraordinary break with Islamic custom that clerics attribute to wartime security conditions.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Saudi Arabia Prepares GCC-Iran Talks on Region-Led Security Architecture
Riyadh is preparing to host the GCC states and Iran for talks on a regional non-aggression pact, maritime security, and confidence-building measures modeled on the 1975 Helsinki Accords, with regular ministerial and leaders' meetings envisioned.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Essay Argues Aggressive War No Longer Converts Force Into Political Gains
The essay surveys the post-1945 record and finds war initiators consistently failing the Clausewitzian test of achieving political objectives at acceptable cost: America's forever wars and its recent strike on Iran, Russia's Ukraine quagmire, and Israel's tactical victories without strategic gain.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
NATO Confronts Industrial Bottlenecks Converting Spending Into Capability
NATO's European members have raised military spending, but industrial bottlenecks constrain the conversion of money into munitions and capable armed forces.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
UK Foreign Secretary Sets Out Post-American Strategic Doctrine
The UK foreign secretary publishes a doctrinal statement recasting Britain's role for an era of great-power competition and reduced American security guarantees.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Presses Hormuz Leverage as Importers Accelerate Bypass Alternatives
Iran emerged from the war with the United States and Israel with its control over the Strait of Hormuz validated as its prime lever: the ceasefire came on terms widely viewed as favorable to Tehran, it staged new attacks on ships transiting the strait last month, and it is moving with Oman to collect payments from passing vessels.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Sanctioned States Channel $100 Billion Through Crypto to Evade U.S. Pressure
Iran, Russia, North Korea, and other sanctioned states handled roughly $100 billion in cryptocurrency last year, a dramatic escalation of virtual-currency use to duck U.S. financial pressure.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Analysts Weigh U.S.-China Rivalry Amid Multi-Theater Strain
An ECFR discussion with US-China commission leaders examines how the Iran and Ukraine wars strain the balance between the Indo-Pacific and other theaters, China's support for Russia and Iran, and intensifying competition in AI, biotech, and quantum.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Hosted World Cup Exposes Limits of Sports Soft Power
The essay argues the 2026 US-co-hosted World Cup has exposed the limits of sports diplomacy, as the Trump administration's visa restrictions and immigration regime overshadowed the tournament's unifying potential, with officials, referees, and Iranian team staff denied entry or interrogated.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
NATO Ankara Summit Agenda and Turkey's Rising Role
Ahead of the Ankara summit, NATO faces eroded transatlantic trust after Trump's withdrawal threats, demands over Greenland, and the halt of US military aid to Ukraine, with the summit's chief goal reduced to reaffirming Article 5.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
Iran-U.S. Interim Memorandum Envisions Sanctions Relief for Nuclear Limits
Iran and the United States signed an interim memorandum in June envisioning $300 billion in reconstruction funds and the lifting of all sanctions in return for nuclear restrictions, with Washington now demanding Iran also abandon decades of ideological opposition and proxy support.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Hormuz Crisis Exposes China's Structural Energy Import Dependence
The Strait of Hormuz crisis exposed China's persistent dependence on imported oil, natural gas, and uranium despite its dominance in energy production and renewables manufacturing.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Hamas Structural Collapse After Two-Year Gaza War
Israel's sustained bombing and invasion have removed Hamas's senior leadership echelon, destroyed its safe houses, tunnels, weapons workshops, and overseas outposts, and severed its patron relationships with Iran and Qatar.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Europe-Gulf Strategic Alignment Amid Eroding U.S. Deterrence
The piece maps an emerging Europe-Gulf strategic bloc catalyzed by the Iran war, U.S. ambivalence on freedom of navigation, and a shattered guarantee of U.S. deterrence.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Brokered Iran and Lebanon Ceasefires Strain Trump-Netanyahu Ties
President Trump forced memoranda of understanding ending hostilities with Iran and, separately, between Israel, the U.S., and Lebanon, over Netanyahu's preference to sustain military pressure on Iran and Hezbollah.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Turkey's Rising Strategic Weight Within NATO Amid US Ambivalence
The analysis frames a structural rebalancing inside NATO in which Turkey's defense-industrial output and geographic position make it the alliance's key gap-filler as European members cool toward Washington and deepen ties with Ankara.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Deepening China-Iran-North Korea-Russia Strategic Alignment
Since 2022 the four principal U.S. adversaries have built dense bilateral cooperation spanning arms supply, joint weapons production, technology transfer, and sanctions circumvention, catalyzed by Russia's war in Ukraine.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
UN Scraps Budget-Refund Rule to Absorb U.S. Nonpayment
The UN abolished a long-standing requirement to return unspent budget funds to member states, freeing it to build a cash cushion against gaps created chiefly by U.S. nonpayment and Chinese late payment.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Saudi Arabia Blocks U.S. Access for Strait of Hormuz Operation
Saudi Arabia denied U.S. military access required for Project Freedom, an operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as more than 100 U.S. aircraft mobilized across Middle East bases and warships.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Analysis of Turkiye's Populist-Autocratic Foreign Policy Consolidation Under Erdogan
The piece traces how two decades of AKP rule shifted Turkiye from a Western-anchored candidate democracy toward an electoral autocracy whose foreign policy is subordinated to regime survival.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Tehran Factional Split Over Hormuz Stalls U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
A power struggle inside Tehran between moderate civilian leaders and hardline military figures over the Strait of Hormuz is slowing U.S.-Iran peace negotiations and endangering a deal, according to reporting from Doha.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Iran and Oman Advance Strait of Hormuz Transit-Fee Plan
Iran and Oman are moving to collect fees from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, overturning prewar free passage after the February 28 US-Israeli attack prompted Iran to blockade and then monetize the chokepoint.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
IMEC Reconceived as Multi-Node Corridor Network After Hormuz and Red Sea Disruptions
An Atlantic Council report extends the 2023 IMEC framework into a redundant network adding Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Syria-via-Jordan as alternative nodes, responding to the February 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure, Houthi Red Sea interdiction, and Suez throughput collapse.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Iran Rejects 1968 Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme
Iranian deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi reasserted permanent Iranian control over Strait of Hormuz shipping and rejected the 1968 Iran-Oman Traffic Separation Scheme that the IMO ratified to govern transit.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Iran and U.S. Sign Memorandum of Understanding Ending War
After an April cease-fire and roughly 70 days of Pakistan- and Qatar-brokered indirect talks, Iran and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding ending their war, lifting the blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China Withholds Gallium Exports Despite Trade Truce
Despite suspending its presumption-of-denial rule, China continues to choke off gallium exports, with U.S. defense-linked customers still denied permits and global prices surging as little Chinese material reaches markets.
Date unknown
Stable
Sanctions
US Proposal to Release Frozen Iranian Funds for US Farm Goods
The Trump administration is weighing release of $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds conditioned on buying US-origin humanitarian goods, framed as relief but serving domestic farm interests.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
All-Volunteer Force as a Structural Enabler of US War-Making
The piece argues that ending the draft in 1973 severed the political link between military action abroad and most American families, lowering the domestic cost of using force.
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
Gulf Energy Infrastructure Damage Triggers Reconstruction Contest
Strikes during the US-Iran war damaged seven Japanese-built Gulf energy complexes, with restoration costs estimated near $46 billion and recovery measured in years.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Cyber
CSIS Analysis: U.S. Cognitive Warfare Deficit in Irregular Conflict
CSIS analysts assess that the United States is structurally behind adversaries in the cognitive domain of irregular warfare, citing Iran's recent viral video campaigns as evidence of the gap.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
US-Iran Framework Agreement: Lopsided Terms Favor Tehran
A US-Iran interim framework agreement has been made public, with CSIS's Emily Harding assessing that Iran secured the preponderance of concrete upfront benefits — naval blockade termination, immediate oil export waivers, asset release, and $300 billion in reconstruction commitments — while the US received only a 60-day Hormuz transit guarantee and a vague nuclear reaffirmation.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
US Defense Industrial Base Wartime Footing Progress Assessment
The US Pentagon, having declared a wartime industrial footing goal in November 2025, has made measurable progress in attracting new and nontraditional defense firms, building munitions magazine depth through a high-low mix strategy, investing in rare earth mine-to-magnet supply chains outside Chinese control, and driving foreign military sales.
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
Iran Proxy Deterrence Model Structural Shift Post-October 7
The article analyzes a structural transformation in Iran's deterrence strategy following the post-October 7 regional wars.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
US-Iran Islamabad Memorandum Framework Analysis
The Diplomat podcast examines the Islamabad Memorandum — a framework agreement between the US and Iran — characterizing it as bearing the hallmarks of Trump's dealmaking style while being extremely fragile.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Iran-China Dual-Use Tech Transfer Network Identified via Innovation Houses
Iran's network of state-run innovation houses and trade platforms serves as a primary channel for acquiring sanctioned dual-use technology from China, coordinated at the top levels of both governments and shielded by mutual deniability.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
Structural Fracture of the Liberal International Order Under US Hegemonic Decline
The liberal international order — built on US dominance at the postwar apex — has reached a structural inflection point as American hegemony erodes and China rises as a near-peer competitor.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Gulf-Turkey-Pakistan Bloc Assumes Lead in Managing Iran After 2026 War
The 2026 Iran war produced a regional division of labor in which Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Turkey, and Pakistan handled the diplomacy and a share of the security burden of managing Iran, relegating Washington to a backstop role.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran MOU Sidelines Israel and Establishes Lebanon Deconfliction Mechanism
A U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding terminates military operations on all fronts including Lebanon, lifts all U.S. sanctions on Iran, and creates a Lebanon deconfliction mechanism involving the U.S., Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar, while excluding Israel and deferring Iran's nuclear and missile questions.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Hormuz Blockage From Iran War Triggers South Korean Refinery Supply Shock
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the Persian Gulf crude that supplies about 60 percent of South Korea's imports and delivering the worst supply shock in the Ulsan refinery's history.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
U.S. Surges Munitions Production to Rebuild Stocks Depleted by Iran War
After a months-long war with Iran ended by a memorandum of understanding, the U.S. is racing to rebuild a munitions arsenal that consumed nearly 14,000 strike munitions and tens of billions of dollars.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Major Powers Launch Post-Treaty Nuclear Arsenal Buildup
With most major arms-control treaties expired or abrogated, the United States, Russia, and China are set to spend hundreds of billions modernizing and expanding their nuclear arsenals, with Washington pursuing more lethal first-strike-oriented forces and missile defenses.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Seeks to Leverage Iran Mediation for Global Influence
Pakistan's mediation of the U.S.-Iran framework deal, announced first by PM Shehbaz Sharif, positions Islamabad to claim enhanced global influence.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Defends Front-Loaded Sanctions Relief in Iran MOU
The Trump administration's U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding front-loads sanctions relief and pledges hundreds of billions in reconstruction funds, lifting restrictions to let Tehran earn oil revenue while restoring the prewar status quo.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Disaggregation of Hegemony in the Middle East
The analysis traces a structural divergence in which China has become the Middle East's largest trading partner (Arab-world trade rising from ~$36 billion in 2004 to ~$400 billion by 2024) while the United States retains security primacy through installations in at least 19 locations.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Ends 2026 War
The United States and Iran concluded a memorandum of understanding ending the war that began in February, formalizing a ceasefire that analysts expect to hold.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran MOU Phase 1 Talks Continue Post-War
Following the 12-day war, the U.S. and Iran continue negotiating phase 2 of an MOU, with phase 1 delivering frozen-asset access and oil-export waivers to Iran.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran MOU Opens Diplomatic Window on Lebanon
A U.S.-Iran memorandum secured a 60-day diplomatic window and placed Lebanese sovereignty at the center of ceasefire talks in Lucerne, with direct Lebanon-Israel talks resuming in Washington on June 23.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Washington Commits to Rebuilding Middle East Bases After Iran War
After Iran struck at least 20 U.S. military sites across eight countries during Operation Epic Fury, damaging or destroying 228 structures and forcing personnel to relocate, Washington committed to rebuilding bases, hardening defenses, and replacing lost equipment.
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
U.S.-Iran Conflict Deepens Iran's Strategic Dependence on Russia
The unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict has driven an oil-price spike that eased Russia's fiscal pressure and forced Iran, cut off from Gulf ports, into deeper Caspian trade and arms cooperation with Moscow.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Israeli Forces Constrained Between U.S. Limits and Hezbollah Pressure in Lebanon
Israeli troops stationed in Lebanon are caught between U.S.-imposed limits on offensive operations and domestic political pressure to keep fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah, threatening a standing truce.
Date unknown
Mixed
Sanctions
U.S. Sanctions Chinese Refiner Over Iranian Oil Amid Yuan Expansion
The United States escalated its 'Economic Fury' campaign against Iran in late April by sanctioning the major Chinese refiner Hengli Petrochemical, which it accused of buying billions of dollars of Iranian oil, though the firm said its supplier guaranteed the oil was not Iranian.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
Trump Social-Media Threat Disrupts U.S.-Iran Talks in Switzerland
As fragile U.S.-Iran negotiations opened in Switzerland, President Trump issued a social-media threat to attack Iran unless it stopped funding allied groups, injecting brinkmanship into the talks.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran 14-Point MOU Sets 60-Day Final Deal Window
The United States and Iran agreed to a 14-point memorandum of understanding committing them to negotiate a final deal within a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
CSIS Estimates U.S. Iran War Cost at Around $40 Billion
CSIS's cost accounting of Operation Epic Fury quantifies the material burden of the U.S. war with Iran, with munitions consuming the bulk of an estimated $40 billion in incremental DOD costs.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Allied Trade Controls on Iran's Military Reconstitution
Following war damage, Iran prioritizes clearing ports, rebuilding munitions plants, replenishing its drone fleet, and expanding IRGCN asymmetric maritime forces, generating heavy procurement demand for salvage gear, machine tools, drone components, and marine engines.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
China's Indirect Support to Iran During US-Iran War
During the recent US-Iran war, Chinese companies and entities provided Iran with chipmaking tools, satellite imagery and a spy satellite covering US bases in the Gulf, and missile-propellant material, while Beijing offered only platitude-laden diplomatic backing.
Date unknown
Stable
Alliance
US-Iran Ceasefire Framework Following 12-Day War
A US-Iran peace and ceasefire framework follows recent hostilities, with negotiations in Switzerland focused on Iran's nuclear program, enrichment limits, and the return of UN inspectors.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Assessment of US-Iran War Outcome and Postwar Balance
The essay assesses the US-Iran war (Operation Epic Fury) as a strategic US win that left Iran at its weakest since 1979, with its nuclear program, conventional military, defense industrial base, and leadership severely degraded.
Date unknown
Unclear
Alliance
Legal Status of US-Iran Islamabad MOU Contested
The analysis dissects whether the US-Iran Islamabad MOU is a binding treaty or a nonbinding political text, finding it mixes both markers and was hastily drafted.
Date unknown
Stable
Political
UK Leadership Transition From Starmer to Burnham
Andy Burnham is poised to succeed Keir Starmer as UK prime minister after rivals stood down, inheriting economic stagnation, underfunded services, an unfunded defense-spending pledge, and a rising Reform UK.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Iran Sentences Singer to Lashes Signaling Hardline Postwar Order
An Iranian court sentenced singer Parastoo Ahmadi to 74 lashes plus travel and performance bans for performing without a hijab, the first high-profile enforcement under the postwar leadership of Mojtaba Khamenei and an expanded IRGC role.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Consolidation of the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea Autocratic Axis
The deepening economic, military, and technological coordination among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea forms a revisionist heartland bloc aimed at rupturing the US-led rimland order.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
China's Non-Intervention in Iran, Ukraine, and Venezuela Crises Exposes Partnership Limits
China's pattern of backing its closest partners economically and diplomatically while withholding direct defense exposes the structural ceiling of its partnership model.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Strait of Hormuz Closure and Malacca Toll Debate
A three-and-a-half-month crisis from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz showed Iran weaponizing a chokepoint to inflict economic strain and a flashpoint generating missile strikes and shipping losses.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
U.S. War Against Iran
The United States opened direct military operations against Iran, with Trump publicly framing the campaign around regime change and confronting Tehran's leadership.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
US-Iran Truce Deal Signed Amid Unresolved Nuclear and Hormuz Disputes
Following a war that devastated Iran's economy and leadership and disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, the US and Iran signed a truce deal opening talks but deferring core questions on enrichment, stockpiles, Iranian funds, and transit tolls.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
US-Iran Nuclear Talks Open in Switzerland
US and Iranian negotiators opened high-level nuclear talks in Switzerland, with Vance claiming agreement on restoring IAEA inspections while Iran publicly denied making new commitments.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Trump Declares Victory Over Iran After Memorandum of Understanding
The essay examines U.S. President Trump's announcement of a vague, capitulatory memorandum of understanding with Iran
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Iran Escalates Executions of Dissidents
As its war with the United States eases, Iran's regime has stepped up executions of dissidents, hanging 26-year-old Nasser Bakerzadeh among at least 45 people killed this year on political charges.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Negotiations to Permanently End War Begin
The United States and Iran began negotiations in Switzerland to permanently end their war, targeting a comprehensive deal within 60 days that spans sanctions relief, a $300 billion reconstruction fund, the navigability and fee status of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Iran Announces Renewed Closure of Strait of Hormuz
Iran declared it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again, reasserting a coercive claim over a critical maritime chokepoint even as a peace deal promised to keep the passage open.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
Lebanon War Overshadows Renewed Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks in Switzerland
A U.S. delegation led by Vice President Vance arrives in Switzerland for renewed Iran-U.S. nuclear negotiations, but the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon threatens to derail the intended agenda.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
Renewed U.S.-Iran Nuclear Negotiations Over Enrichment and Stockpile
The U.S. and Iran enter a renewed negotiating round seeking to constrain Iran's nuclear program after U.S.-Israeli strikes on its enrichment sites last year.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Talks Resume at Swiss Resort Under Switzerland's Facilitation
U.S. and Iranian officials are set to resume talks at a discreet Swiss mountain resort to implement a recently signed Memorandum of Understanding aimed at ending the Middle East war.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Sanctions Campaign Against Iran Hits Diminishing Returns
Washington has imposed more than 1,000 sanctions on Iran over 18 months in a campaign to squeeze Tehran, but the measures have largely failed to coerce behavior.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Israel-Hezbollah Fighting Resumes Despite Renewed Ceasefire
Israeli fire hit areas around the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on Saturday, just hours after a renewed Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire took effect, demonstrating the truce's immediate fragility.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. and Qatar Plan to Unfreeze $6 Billion in Iranian Funds
The United States is working with Qatar to make about $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds available for humanitarian spending, an early incentive under a recently signed deal to end the war with Iran.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
CSIS Forum Panel on U.S. Defense Industrial Base Reform
This is a CSIS Global Security Forum panel description featuring U.S. defense officials and industry leaders discussing how to rebuild American industrial capacity for sustained warfighting.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Central Asia's Trade-Route Diversification Collapses Amid Regional Wars
Central Asia's effort to reduce dependence on Russia's Northern Corridor has failed as overlapping conflicts shut its alternatives: U.S. strikes and a port blockade closed Iran's Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, Pakistan-Taliban fighting severed the Afghanistan-Pakistan route, and retaliatory Iranian strikes damaged Middle Corridor infrastructure including Nakhichevan's airport.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Israel-Hezbollah Escalation in Southern Lebanon
Hezbollah ambushed Israeli forces near Kfar Tebnit, killing four soldiers and destroying three Merkava tanks in one of the deadliest strikes on Israeli troops since fighting resumed in March.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Iran Survives U.S.-Israel War Through Asymmetric Pressure
Analysts assess that Iran weathered an existential war against the United States and Israel by exploiting asymmetric leverage rather than conventional parity: closing the Strait of Hormuz, launching thousands of missiles and drones at the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, and spiking oil prices to erode U.S. domestic and allied support.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
U.S. Reclassifies Gaza Board of Peace as International NGO
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the Board of Peace would shift from a multilateral state-based body endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2803 into an international NGO, removing it from congressional oversight and international-law accountability.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Iran War Reconstruction Funds Set to Entrench the IRGC
The memorandum's sanctions relief and reconstruction exemptions are likely to route money through IRGC-linked contractors like Khatam al-Anbiya and regime foundations rather than to civilians, even as the war wrecked water, power, fuel, and medical infrastructure.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Cyber
US Lags Adversaries in Cognitive and Irregular Warfare
The analysis frames a persistent US gap: despite kinetic dominance, Washington has not contested the information environment where Russia, China, and Iran operate, as shown by Iran's viral campaigns souring anti-regime Iranians on the US after Operation Epic Fury.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
U.S. Imposes Strict Entry Restrictions on Iran's World Cup Delegation
The U.S. government imposed entry and movement restrictions on Iran's World Cup delegation unique among participating teams, admitting them only a day before each match and forcing immediate departure afterward, with extended border interrogations.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump Presses Netanyahu to Halt Lebanon Strikes
In recent phone calls, Trump pressed Netanyahu to stop bombing buildings in Lebanon and expressed concern that a war-driven global downturn could damage his own legacy.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Restores Iranian Oil Revenue
A U.S.-Iran peace agreement reopens Iran's ability to sell oil and fuel, potentially generating more than $60 billion in annual revenue.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iran's Frozen Oil-Payment Assets Held Across Asian States
Iran's frozen assets, mostly recent payments for oil sold to China, India, South Korea, and Japan, remain blocked after the United States withdrew from a prior arrangement.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US-Iran War Ends in Strategic Reversal for Washington
A short US war against Iran ended with core American strategic objectives harmed rather than advanced, despite minimal US casualties.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
US-Iran MOU Signals American Retreat From the Middle East
A US-Iran memorandum of understanding ending the war set terms for nuclear negotiations, a 60-day oil-export waiver for Tehran, and a contested reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which the author reads as strategically hollow.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
US and Iran Prepare Framework Agreement to End War and Reopen Hormuz
Washington and Tehran prepare to sign a framework agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade of Iranian ports while leaving unresolved the issues that triggered the war, including Iran's nuclear program.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
US-Iran Deal Grants Immediate Oil-Sale Waiver to Tehran
Under the deal to end the war, the United States will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel, with the waiver of sanctions on oil sales taking effect at once.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Deal Scheduled for Signing
A U.S.-Iran deal is scheduled to be signed Friday, with the announcement alone already calming oil markets and lifting equities, though substantive details remain scarce.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Framework Announced
The announced framework ends active fighting between the United States and Iran on terms that fall short of regime change, leaving a hard-line regime in power and core nuclear limits unnegotiated.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Post-War Mine-Clearing Operation to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Following a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy, joined by Britain and France, prepares mine-clearing operations whose pace will determine when oil shipping resumes.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Netanyahu Refuses Israeli Withdrawal From Lebanon Despite U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire
Netanyahu publicly distanced Israel from the newly reached U.S.-Iran cease-fire, declaring the struggle had not ended and refusing to withdraw forces from a self-declared security zone in southern Lebanon, a key Iranian demand.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Preliminary Peace Deal Reopens Strait of Hormuz
The United States and Iran signed a preliminary peace agreement whose terms remained undisclosed, with conflicting U.S. and Iranian characterizations.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Iran Signals Intent to Charge Passage Fees in Strait of Hormuz
Iran indicated it will levy fees on commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz, framing them as charges for services rather than tolls, after the U.S.-Israeli war disrupted the prewar free-passage regime.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
US-Iran Preliminary Ceasefire Framework Signed, Hormuz Reopening
A preliminary U.S.-Iran framework extends the April ceasefire by 60 days, reopens the Strait of Hormuz toll-free, and lifts the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, restoring the prewar status quo on global oil flows.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
European Leaders Seek to Avoid Confrontation With Trump at G-7 Summit
At the G-7 summit, European leaders shifted from earlier attempts to win favor with President Trump through praise toward simply trying to avoid open conflict, against a backdrop of tensions over Iran.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Framework Reopens Strait of Hormuz
A vague U.S.-Iran framework halted military strikes, lifted the U.S. blockade, and reopened the Strait of Hormuz after a war that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and senior IRGC commanders and degraded Iran's nuclear, missile, and naval capacity.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S. and Iran Present Competing Accounts of War-Ending Deal
The United States and Iran announced an agreement to end their war but have not released its text, and each side is selling a different version of the terms to its domestic audience as a victory.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Central Asia Multi-Alignment Leverage Consolidation
Central Asian states are converting geographic centrality into structural leverage as maritime-trade disruption from the Iran-U.S. war and Russia's estrangement from G7 economies narrow viable logistics options for neighboring powers.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iranian Public Disengagement Amid Post-War Crackdown and Economic Collapse
Iranians describe a poisonous atmosphere of exhaustion after a year of two devastating wars, mass protests met with one of the deadliest crackdowns in modern Iranian history, and an imploding economy.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Framework Deal With 60-Day Ceasefire and Hormuz Reopening
The United States and Iran announced a framework deal featuring a 60-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Framework Agreement to End War
Washington and Tehran reached an initial framework, expected to be signed in Geneva, ending a three-month war launched to dismantle Iran's nuclear program and topple its leadership.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Lebanon Cease-Fire Ambiguity in U.S.-Iran Agreement
The initial U.S.-Iran framework's coverage of the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon remains unresolved, with Iranian and Pakistani officials claiming it includes an end to that fighting while Trump has not confirmed.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Asim Munir Consolidates De Facto Rule While Leading Pakistan's Iran Mediation
Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's chief of army staff since 2022, has emerged as the dominant power center in Pakistan while simultaneously positioning the country as a lead mediator in the US-Iran conflict.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump-Iran Interim Peace Deal and Hormuz Reopening
President Trump announced a 60-day interim peace deal with Iran that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil trade transits.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US Fiscal Withdrawal and Security Council Capture Accelerate UN Structural Decline
The United States under Trump has paid only $160 million of assessed UN regular budget dues, creating a shortfall exceeding $4 billion, while the Security Council endorsed Trump's Board of Peace framework for Gaza — effectively ceding multilateral authority to a US-controlled privatized body.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Collapse of Performative International Law Compliance Among Major Powers
The article diagnoses a structural inflection point in which the United States, Russia, and China have abandoned even the performative pretense of compliance with international law — a shift from strategic hypocrisy to open rejection.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Western Climate Framework Collapse and China's Clean Energy Market Dominance
A structural retreat from target-based climate governance is underway across Western institutions — the EU has abandoned combustion engine bans and weakened emissions targets, major banks are pricing 3-degree warming scenarios as business opportunities, and prominent climate advocates including Bill Gates and Mark Carney have publicly distanced themselves from the urgency framework.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Structural Erosion of U.S.-Israel Special Alliance
The U.S.-Israel alliance has reached a paradoxical inflection point: operationally at its apex with joint military action against Iran, but structurally in terminal decline.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
US-Iran Initial Deal Announcement
President Trump announced an initial deal with Iran, which Iran publicly confirmed — a rare instance of mutual acknowledgment that signals at minimum a shared interest in de-escalation.
Escalating / Middle East
Israel presses strikes in Gaza as Iran anchors leverage at Hormuz and Houthis seize Bab al-Mandab approaches.
Escalating / Middle East
Washington abandons maximalist war aims as Iran holds Hormuz and US interceptor stocks fall below half.
IRGC Navy: enforces the Hormuz transit-fee regime through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority.
Houthi movement (Ansar Allah, Yemen): seized Mocha, Perim Island, and the Bab al-Mandab approaches.
Kataib Hezbollah (Iraq): executed the drone strike that disabled the Saudi East-West pipeline.
Iran-aligned Iraqi armed groups (Popular Mobilisation Forces): coordinating drone strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and contesting Iraqi state authority.
Hezbollah (Lebanon): sustaining the northern front against Israel from a degraded but still operational posture, tying down IDF capacity.