Conflict / Asia-Pacific
India-Pakistan Kashmir Dispute
India widens its military edge as Pakistan pivots to Eurasian corridors and US strategic attention shifts away from South Asia.
The India-China-Pakistan triangle is the only place on earth where three nuclear-armed states share contested borders with each other.
India and Pakistan have fought four wars since 1947, but the structural shape of the rivalry hardened in 1965, when China backed Islamabad against New Delhi during the second Indo-Pakistani War. Beijing has armed Pakistan ever since, transferred nuclear weapons designs in the 1970s, and now routes its $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through Kashmiri territory India claims as its own. The US and France arm India. Pakistan-linked militants in Kashmir and a live Sino-Indian border keep two fronts pressed against New Delhi at once.
No new kinetic exchange has followed Operation Sindoor, but the post-ceasefire period is producing durable structural shifts across all three vertices of the triangle.
Munir's consolidation, reinforced by the ceasefire rebound and Pakistan's Iran mediation cachet, has hardened army primacy and pushed even the PTI toward a charter formalizing military rule, deepening the gap between Pakistan's democratic claims and where power actually sits.
It matters because the proxy war continues to tie down India and.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Munir's post-Sindoor consolidation and Pakistan's Iran mediation role have given the military establishment a rare dual legitimacy boost.
Washington's Pacific Command redesignation is a structural recalibration, not a rhetorical signal.
Indian and Chinese troops clashed in the Galwan Valley, killing 20 Indian soldiers in the first fatal Sino-Indian border clash since 1975, activating the two-front threat in a direct kinetic form for the first time in decades.
China announced the $62 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, routing infrastructure through Pakistani-administered Kashmir that India claims as sovereign territory, fusing the economic and territorial dimensions of the triangle.
Pakistani forces crossed the Line of Control into Kargil, triggering a limited but intense war; India's victory and U.S. pressure to withdraw exposed the limits of China's direct intervention on Pakistan's behalf.
India and Pakistan both conducted nuclear tests within weeks of each other, making the triangle explicitly three-nuclear-armed for the first time and raising the stakes of every future military confrontation.
China began covert transfers of nuclear weapons design information and fissile material to Pakistan, directly enabling Islamabad's bomb program as a strategic counterweight to India's 1974 nuclear test.
India's decisive victory in the Bangladesh Liberation War dismembered Pakistan, deepening Islamabad's dependence on Beijing as a security guarantor and accelerating Sino-Pakistani military cooperation.
Lashkar-e-Taiba functions as a Pakistan-linked deniable pressure instrument against India through cross-border militant violence in Kashmir.
Jaish-e-Mohammed serves as a Pakistan-linked militant node in the Kashmir corridor used to generate coercive pressure against Indian security forces.
BLA (Balochistan Liberation Army) has expanded urban reach, drone capability, and strategic communication targeting Pakistani state infrastructure.
TTP-linked networks are cited by Islamabad as India-sponsored cross-border militant actors operating against Pakistani security forces in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Gwadar port, under Chinese management via CPEC, anchors Pakistan's strategic depth and is being positioned as a node linking to Russia's INSTC corridor.
China funds CPEC and supplies advanced military hardware to Pakistan; US and France supply India
Jun 26, 2026
Stable
Legal
Pakistan Passes Growth-Centric FY2026-27 Budget
Pakistan's parliament passed a roughly $67 billion FY2026-27 budget pivoting toward export-led growth via Super Tax cuts, FBR digitization, and incentives for IT, remittances, and CPEC 2.0 joint ventures.
Jun 20, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Bangladesh PM Rahman's First Foreign Trip to Malaysia and China
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's inaugural overseas trip targets Chinese investment and Malaysian labor markets, with up to 17 bilateral instruments and the Teesta River project on the China agenda.
Jun 19, 2026
Escalating
Political
Munir Consolidation Pushes PTI Toward Charter-of-Democracy Compromise
Field Marshal Asim Munir's ascendancy has hardened a permanent hybrid regime in which the army dictates outcomes and civilian parties compete for shrinking space.
Jun 17, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Modi-Trump G7 Meeting Fails to Reset US-India Ties
Modi and Trump met on the sidelines of the G7 in France to stabilize a relationship strained over the past year, but the encounter is unlikely to restore the prior partnership.
Jun 17, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Trump and Modi Hold Bilateral Meeting at G7 Summit
At the G7 summit in France, Trump pledged to visit India and offered conditional defense backing, signaling a thaw after tensions over tariffs, a forced-labor import tax, and the US killing of three Indian sailors in a strike enforcing its Iran blockade.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Institutional
Pentagon Reverts INDOPACOM to PACOM, Signaling Strategic Retreat
The US Defense Department reverted Indo-Pacific Command to its original Pacific Command designation, a name change Trump himself had reversed in 2018.
Jun 16, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
US Restores 'Pacific Command' Name, Dropping 'Indo-Pacific'
Washington restored the original name of its Hawaii-based combatant command from US Indo-Pacific Command to US Pacific Command, signaling a deprioritization of the Indian Ocean within its security calculus.
Jun 16, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
India-Bangladesh Diplomatic Row Over Adviser Airport Incident
Bangladesh summoned the Indian Deputy High Commissioner after Zahed Ur Rahman, an adviser to PM Tarique Rahman, was detained for hours at a Delhi airport, the second such protest since the BNP government took office in February 2026.
Jun 15, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Wang Yi Visit Reaffirms China-Mongolia Partnership Amid Multi-Vector Balancing
Wang Yi's three-day visit reaffirmed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and advanced cross-border connectivity, critical minerals, and renewable-energy cooperation, with a personal letter from Xi hinting at a possible state visit.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Other
Iran War Triggers Asian Energy-Security Rethink
The Hormuz shutdown during the Iran war exposed Asia's structural dependence on Gulf energy, forcing emergency rationing and a scramble toward renewables, nuclear, and non-Gulf suppliers.
Jun 14, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Modi Visit to Nice for Bharat Innovates Summit
Indian Prime Minister Modi visited Nice from June 14-16, 2026 for the first overseas Bharat Innovates summit, meeting French President Macron on the eve of the G-7 summit in Evian.
Jun 12, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-India Strategic Rupture Over Iran War Fallout
India lodged a strong protest after U.S. strikes in the Gulf of Oman killed three Indian seafarers, and Washington offered no apology or change to its rules of engagement.
Jun 11, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
US Killing of Indian Sailors Strains but Does Not Break India-US Ties
US military operations enforcing the Hormuz blockade killed three Indian nationals aboard the tanker MT Settebello and left another sailor's body unrecoverable, prompting India to summon the US charge d'affaires and Secretary of State Rubio to defend the action against illicit Iranian oil transport.
Jun 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
G7 Evian-les-Bains Summit 2025
The G7 summit convenes June 15-17 in Evian-les-Bains under French presidency, with an agenda deliberately narrowed to avoid confrontation with the United States.
Jun 5, 2026
Stable
Alliance
Russia Renews SU-57 Co-Production Offer to India Amid IAF Capability Gap
At the St. Petersburg forum on June 5, Putin offered India joint production of the SU-57 fifth-generation fighter without limitations, as the IAF's squadron strength fell to 29 against a sanctioned 42 amid stalled indigenous LCA deliveries.
Jun 3, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
U.S. and South Korea Discuss Civilian Enrichment and Reprocessing Program
U.S. and South Korean officials met to discuss implementation of Seoul's civilian uranium enrichment and reprocessing program, following Washington's September 2025 reversal of decades of policy blocking these dual-use technologies.
May 29, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
India Releases Joint Air Defense Doctrine
India's Chief of Defense Staff released a joint air defense doctrine establishing an integrated, layered architecture against drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, and saturation attacks, advancing tri-service integration and the theater-command project.
May 26, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting Redefines Alliance Utility Framework
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio convened Quad Foreign Ministers in Delhi on May 26, 2026, formally repositioning the grouping away from its original China-balancing mandate toward functional support for U.S. supply chain interests
May 24, 2026
De-escalating
Military
BLA Suicide Bombing of Quetta Passenger Train
A BLA suicide bomber drove a vehicle-borne IED into a passenger train in Quetta, killing at least 30 people — predominantly security personnel and their families — and injuring over 50.
May 22, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
2026 NPT Review Conference Collapses Without Consensus
The eleventh NPT Review Conference concluded without a consensus outcome document, the fourth consecutive failure since 2010.
May 16, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Tata Electronics–ASML MoU Signed at Dholera Fab
India's Tata Electronics signed a memorandum of understanding with ASML during Prime Minister Modi's visit to the Netherlands, securing access to ASML's lithography portfolio — including EUV systems — for the Dholera, Gujarat fabrication facility.
May 13, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Seeks to Link Gwadar Port to Russia-Backed INSTC
Pakistan publicly proposed linking the China-operated Gwadar port to the Russia-backed INSTC at a Russia-Pakistan conference in Kazan, and Russia confirmed active talks including possible railway links.
May 10, 2026
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Army Chief Munir Delivers Marka-e-Haq Anniversary Doctrine Address
On the first anniversary of Pakistan's military response to India's Operation Sindoor, Army Chief Asim Munir delivered a comprehensive doctrinal address at GHQ Rawalpindi signaling a shift from defensive to assertive strategic posture.
May 2, 2026
Escalating
Political
BJP Sweeps 2026 Indian State Assembly Elections, Captures West Bengal
The BJP won decisive majorities in West Bengal (206/294 seats), Assam (102/126 seats), and Puducherry, while opposition parties won Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Russia-Taliban Military-Technical Cooperation Agreement
Russia and Afghanistan's Taliban government concluded a military-technical cooperation agreement in late May 2026, formalized during Taliban Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob's visit to Moscow.
May 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Rubio India Visit and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to travel to India to attend the Quad foreign ministers' meeting alongside counterparts from Australia, Japan, and India, and to hold bilateral discussions on trade and energy.
May 1, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Quad Foreign Ministers Convene in New Delhi
The foreign ministers of the United States, India, Japan, and Australia met in New Delhi for the first Quad ministerial on Indian soil since 2023.
Apr 22, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
Pakistan Embeds Space Program in China's Tiangong Architecture
Pakistan selected two PAF pilots for cosmonaut training at China's Astronaut Center, with one scheduled to become the first foreign national aboard the Tiangong Space Station in late 2026.
Apr 20, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Bangladesh Pursues China-Backed Teesta River Project Amid India Stalemate
Bangladesh's Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman visited Beijing and discussed the Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project (TRCMRP) with Chinese authorities, signaling Dhaka's readiness to bypass India on the Teesta issue.
Apr 20, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Continental Asian States Consolidate Portfolio Politics Strategy
States across Continental Asia — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan — have institutionalized a foreign policy model of sector-by-sector partner diversification, assigning different external actors to distinct functional roles rather than aligning with any single great power bloc.
Apr 16, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Carnegie India Highlights Structural Gaps in Nuclear Delivery System Controls
The event is an analytical intervention rather than a new policy act, but it identifies a durable structural weakness in the non-proliferation regime: delivery systems remain weakly regulated compared with warheads and fissile material.
Apr 15, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Saudi Arabia Withdraws Financing for Pakistan-Sudan Arms Deal
Saudi Arabia withdrew financing for a proposed $1.5 billion Pakistan-Sudan arms deal and urged Islamabad to terminate it, collapsing Pakistan's intended gateway into African security markets.
Apr 7, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
GCC-Wide Ban on Indian Hyper-Nationalist Films Dhurandhar and Sequel
All six GCC member states have banned the Bollywood spy thrillers Dhurandhar and Dhurandhar: The Revenge, which grossed over $315 million globally, citing negative depictions of Pakistan and Islamophobic content.
Apr 2, 2026
Escalating
Military
India Issues Standing Deterrent Warning to Pakistan Post-Operation Sindoor
Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh publicly declared that Operation Sindoor remains an active posture and warned Pakistan of 'unprecedented' military consequences for any future provocation.
Apr 1, 2026
Mixed
Cyber
India Bans Non-Certified Chinese Surveillance Hardware After ISI Espionage Case
After the Ghaziabad case exposed a Pakistani ISI network streaming footage of Indian defense sites via Chinese CCTV cameras to servers in China, New Delhi ordered a nationwide audit and banned non-certified internet-connected cameras from April 2026.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Military Kills Eight TTP Militants in North Waziristan Border Operation
Pakistani security forces killed eight TTP-affiliated militants near the Afghanistan border in North Waziristan on April 1, 2026, recovering weapons and ammunition.
Apr 1, 2026
Mixed
Military
Indian Navy Discloses Near-Strike on Pakistan During Operation Sindoor
Indian Navy Chief Admiral Tripathi publicly confirmed that Indian naval units were minutes away from executing sea-based strikes against Pakistan during Operation Sindoor — the military response to the Pahalgam terror attack — when Islamabad requested a ceasefire.
Mar 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Global Nuclear Proliferation Cascade Accelerates Post-Iran Strikes
US-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, combined with the collapse of US-Russia arms control treaties and Trump's selective non-proliferation enforcement, have triggered the most serious global proliferation debate in decades.
Mar 28, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Assumes U.S.-Iran Back-Channel Mediation Role
Pakistan has positioned itself as a key back-channel facilitator in U.S.-Iran negotiations, delivering America's 15-point peace plan to Tehran and offering to host multilateral peace talks.
Mar 4, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Carney Lowy Institute Address on Middle Power Doctrine and Order Rupture
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivered a keynote address at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, framing the current international moment as a structural rupture rather than a managed transition.
Mar 1, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Energy Sovereignty Realignment
The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war choked approximately one-fifth of global oil and LNG supply, triggering cascading energy emergencies across Southeast Asia, South Asia, and beyond.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Emerges as West Asian Security Stabilizer and U.S.-Iran Mediator
Following its May 2025 military conflict with India, Pakistan signed a NATO-like mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia and joined the Trump administration's Gaza Peace Board in January 2026.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
India's Multialignment Strategy Persists Amid U.S.-India Tensions and Regional Realignment
India's multialignment strategy — sustaining deep bilateral ties with the United States, Russia, France, and Israel simultaneously — continues to define its foreign policy posture despite mounting U.S. pressure over Russian oil purchases, BRICS membership, and trade imbalances.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
2026 NPT Review Conference Opens Amid Structural Regime Stress
The 10th NPT Review Conference convenes in New York against the most severe structural stress the nonproliferation regime has faced in its 50-year history.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China 15th Five-Year Plan Consolidates Nuclear Technology Expansion and Export Strategy
China's 15th Five-Year Plan (15FYP) institutionalizes a comprehensive nuclear technology strategy encompassing domestic deployment of Hualong One and CAP-1400 reactors, Generation IV and fusion R&D, and a structured export campaign under the BRI.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
India's Structural Positioning Within a Fracturing Liberal International Order
India has consolidated a durable posture of selective LIO engagement across four security domains — alliances, security communities, crisis management, and nuclear governance — deepening bilateral defense cooperation with the United States while refusing binding alliance commitments.
Dec 23, 2025
De-escalating
Military
PRC Early Warning Counterstrike Posture Assessed as Lacking Dual Phenomenology Safeguards
The U.S. Department of Defense's 2025 China Military Power Report and supporting analysis assess that China's developing early warning counterstrike posture—built on large phased array radars and space-based infrared satellites—likely
Aug 2, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
China Achieves Structural Battery Supply Chain Dominance with Dual-Use Military Implications
China now controls over 80 percent of global battery cell production and 98 percent of LFP cathode output, with projected capacity exceeding 4,800 GWh by 2030.
Jul 15, 2025
Mixed
Military
Indian Navy Chief Discloses Near-Strike on Pakistan During Operation Sindoor
Admiral Dinesh K Tripathi publicly stated that Indian naval forces were minutes from launching sea-based strikes on Pakistan when Islamabad requested a halt to kinetic operations during Operation Sindoor in May 2025.
Jul 13, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Bids for US-Iran Mediator Role Amid Active Conflict
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar publicly claimed Pakistan's role as a facilitator of US-Iran talks after consultations with Turkish, Egyptian, and Saudi counterparts, framing Islamabad as a credible go-between.
Jul 10, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Russia-India High-Level Economic and Energy Cooperation Talks
Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov held senior-level meetings in New Delhi with Prime Minister Modi, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar, NSA Doval, and Finance Minister Sitharaman to expand bilateral cooperation across energy, fertilisers, nuclear power, critical minerals, and defence.
Jul 8, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Rubio India Visit Exposes U.S.-India Trust Deficit
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio concluded a four-day visit to India, securing a nominal pledge of $500 billion in U.S. goods purchases and participating in a Quad foreign ministers summit.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Pakistan Military Consolidates Formal Constitutional Authority Under Munir
Under Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's military has achieved its deepest formal entrenchment in the constitutional order in the country's modern history, using constitutional redesign and a compliant civilian coalition to insulate military authority from political challenge.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Other
China's Overseas Port Network: Systemic Economic, Political, and Security Assessment
A structured analytical assessment of China's global port footprint identifies a multi-vector influence architecture operating through commercial operators, state-backed financing, and infrastructure dependency.
Jul 1, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Amid Indo-Pacific Power Shift
As Trump and Xi prepare to meet in Beijing, the Indo-Pacific balance of power is shifting structurally against U.S. interests.
Jul 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Strategic Overextension Degrades Asian Alliance Architecture Under Trump
A cumulative pattern of U.S. policy decisions since January 2025 — including scientific funding cuts, green technology abandonment, tariff mismanagement, Middle East military escalation, and withdrawal from international institutions — has collectively degraded U.S. credibility and alliance cohesion in Asia.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
China Mobilizes Overseas Security Architecture Amid U.S. Order Decline
China's Ministry of State Security, under Minister Chen Yixin, has issued a directive to build an integrated overseas security protection system 'across the entire chain,' codifying and expanding China's capacity to protect BRI investments, nationals, and strategic assets globally.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Armenia Pursues Licensed Domestic Production of Indian Munitions
Armenia is in discussions to establish domestic production lines for Indian munitions under license, including 155mm artillery shells and Pinaka multiple-launch rocket systems, following a $265 million Pinaka procurement deal in 2022.
Jul 1, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Liberal Order Dismantlement Under Trump and Iran Military Action
Acharya identifies the Trump administration's simultaneous dismantlement of free trade norms, multilateral institutions, democracy promotion, and alliance commitments as the terminal phase of the U.S.-led liberal international order.
Jun 9, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Min Aung Hlaing State Visit to China
Myanmar's President Min Aung Hlaing is conducting a state visit to China, his second foreign trip since transitioning from military junta leader to nominal head of state.
Jun 5, 2025
Escalating
Legal
Trump Signs NSPM-11 Directing AI Acceleration in National Security Enterprise
President Trump signed National Security Presidential Memorandum 11 on June 5, 2025, revoking Biden's NSM-25 and directing U.S. national security agencies to accelerate AI adoption under an executive accountability framework.
Jun 5, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
BRICS Foreign Ministers Summit Convenes in New Delhi Under India's Chairship
India hosted the BRICS foreign ministers' meeting as 2025 chair, convening a bloc now expanded to ten members whose internal rivalries — Iran vs. UAE, Egypt vs. Ethiopia, Iran vs.
Jun 4, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Termez Dialogue Flags Climate Viability Risk for Central-South Asia Connectivity Corridors
The second Termez Dialogue, held June 4-6 in Uzbekistan, convened regional stakeholders to assess connectivity between Central and South Asia, with a specific focus on climate resilience risks to CASA-1000, TAPI, and INSTC.
Jun 3, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Venezuela Acting President Rodríguez State Visit to India
Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodríguez visited India June 3–6, 2025, holding substantive talks on crude oil, critical minerals, and pharmaceuticals without producing formal agreements. The visit was notably pre-announced by U.S.
Jun 2, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
India Rejects Nepal PM Shah's UK Mediation Call on Border Dispute
India's MEA formally rejected Nepal PM Balendra Shah's parliamentary statement calling for UK involvement in the Lipulekh-Kalapani-Limpiyadhura territorial dispute, reaffirming the bilateral-only framework.
Jun 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
India-Myanmar State Visit: Modi Hosts Min Aung Hlaing
Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing visited New Delhi for a five-day state visit, meeting Prime Minister Modi and issuing a joint statement pledging expanded cooperation in defense, trade, technology, energy, critical minerals, and border security.
Jun 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Positions as US-Iran Mediation Hub Under Munir's Leadership
Pakistan's de facto ruler Field Marshal Asim Munir has leveraged Pakistan's diplomatic positioning to offer Islamabad as the venue for US-Iran negotiations, with JD Vance reportedly considering a visit.
May 31, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
India-Africa Forum Summit IV Convened in New Delhi
India hosts its fourth leader-level Africa summit (IAFS-IV) in New Delhi on May 31, 2025 — the first such convening in 11 years — under the theme of strategic partnership for innovation, resilience, and inclusive transformation.
May 30, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Min Aung Hlaing State Visit to India
Myanmar's newly installed President Min Aung Hlaing arrived in India on May 30 for a five-day state visit, meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
May 29, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Gupta Sentencing and Yadav Extradition Exposure in Pannun Assassination Plot
US federal court sentencing of Indian national Nikhil Gupta — who pleaded guilty to orchestrating a failed assassination plot against Khalistan activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun — formalises US judicial findings implicating a RAW-linked Indian government employee, Vikash Yadav.
May 28, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Russia-Taliban Military-Technical Cooperation Agreement Signed
Russia and the Taliban signed a military-technical cooperation agreement on the sidelines of the International Security Forum outside Moscow, with Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Taliban Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoob as signatories.
May 26, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Quad Ministerial Convenes in New Delhi, Elevates Economic Security Agenda
The foreign ministers of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States met in New Delhi for the 11th Quad ministerial, producing deliverables centered on critical minerals financing, undersea cable connectivity for Pacific Island states, Open RAN cooperation, and 6G standards development.
May 26, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Quad Foreign Ministers Launch Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Collaboration (IPMSC)
At the Quad foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi on May 26, India proposed and the Quad formally announced the IPMSC, a new maritime surveillance initiative focused initially on the Indian Ocean.
May 23, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Rubio India Visit Amid U.S.-India Relationship Deterioration
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits India May 23–26, 2025, meeting Modi, Jaishankar, and Doval, and attending a Quad foreign ministers' gathering in New Delhi.
May 22, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting in New Delhi
The foreign ministers of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States convened in New Delhi, marking a continuity signal for the Quad amid doubts about the grouping's survival following the absence of a leaders-level summit since 2024.
May 19, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Xi-Putin Beijing Summit: Treaty Extension and 20 Bilateral Pacts
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met in Beijing on May 19-20, extending the China-Russia Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation and overseeing the signing of 20 bilateral pacts spanning trade, education, and science.
May 19, 2025
Mixed
Military
Emergence of the Global Missile War Era: Iran, Ukraine, and South Asia Conflicts
Concurrent missile conflicts across the Middle East, Europe, and South Asia — involving the US, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, India, and Pakistan — mark a structural inflection in warfare where precision strike capability has proliferated to the point that even middling powers can hold great-power assets at risk.
May 16, 2025
Stable
Other
CFR Future of American Strategy Initiative Launch
The Council on Foreign Relations launched its Future of American Strategy Initiative, a multi-year analytical effort to shape debate on the next era of U.S. international leadership.
May 14, 2025
Escalating
Military
China Accelerates Full-Spectrum Nuclear Force Buildup
China has abandoned its decades-long minimalist nuclear posture and is constructing a full-spectrum coercive nuclear force at breakneck speed, encompassing expanded missile fields, more survivable submarines, improved bombers, and theater nuclear options.
May 10, 2025
Mixed
Military
Post-Operation Sindoor South Asian Non-Contact Warfare Buildup
In the year following the May 2025 India-Pakistan crisis, both states have accelerated multi-domain non-contact warfare capability development with no bilateral communication or crisis management mechanisms in place.
May 10, 2025
De-escalating
Military
India-Pakistan May 2025 Conflict and Post-Crisis Rearmament
The May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict — triggered by the Pahalgam terrorist attack — produced the most intense cross-border conventional fighting between the two nuclear powers since Kargil 1999, including strikes on nuclear-adjacent infrastructure.
May 8, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
China Confirms Operational Presence at Pakistani Bases During India-Pakistan Conflict
China's state broadcaster CCTV aired interviews with AVIC engineers confirming Chinese technical personnel were physically present at Pakistani operational air bases during the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, and that Chinese J-10CE fighters and PL-15E missiles were used against Indian forces.
May 8, 2025
De-escalating
Other
India-Pakistan Mutual Nuclear Deterrence Signaling Exchange
Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh warned Pakistan of an 'unprecedented and decisive' response to any misadventure, prompting Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif to issue a counter-deterrence statement invoking nuclear consequences.
May 7, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
India-Vietnam Relationship Upgraded to Enhanced Comprehensive Strategic Partnership
During Vietnamese General Secretary To Lam's visit to India (May 5–7, 2025), the two countries upgraded their bilateral relationship from a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to an Enhanced Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, signing a joint declaration focused on defense industry development and maritime support.
May 7, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Operation Sindoor and Post-Crisis Escalation Norm Shift
India launched Operation Sindoor on May 6-7, 2025, striking terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in response to the Pahalgam attack. A four-day military exchange followed before a ceasefire on May 10.
May 7, 2025
Mixed
Military
Indian Navy Arabian Sea Coercive Deployment — Operation Sindoor
The Indian Navy deployed approximately 36 frontline warships and submarines near Karachi in the Arabian Sea, establishing a carrier battle group led by INS Vikrant with persistent surveillance and strike readiness.
May 5, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Bangladesh Foreign Minister Rahman Visits China Amid India-Bangladesh Tensions
Bangladeshi Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman conducted a three-day official visit to China at the invitation of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, explicitly framing it as a response to Indian delays on the Teesta River water-sharing agreement and conditioned energy supplies.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
India Accelerates Indigenous Drone Production Following Operation Sindoor
India's May 2025 military confrontation with Pakistan (Operation Sindoor) triggered a structural acceleration of indigenous drone production, converting years of policy groundwork into urgent procurement.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting and IPMSC Launch
The Quad foreign ministers convened and announced the Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Collaboration (IPMSC), a new interoperable maritime domain awareness initiative initially focused on the Indian Ocean region.
May 1, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Rubio India Visit to Repair U.S.-India Bilateral Strain
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to New Delhi to address accumulated friction in the U.S.-India relationship stemming from Trump administration tariffs, immigration enforcement actions against Indian nationals
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Japan Authorizes Lethal Weapons Exports and Launches Defense Industrial Expansion
Japan has lifted its longstanding prohibition on lethal weapons exports and is executing a five-year plan to double its defense budget from approximately $35 billion to $60 billion by 2027, making it the ninth-largest military spender globally.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
India Critical Minerals Strategy Review: Diplomacy-to-Delivery Gap Assessment
India's critical minerals strategy has evolved from diplomatic groundwork (2019-2022) to operationalization attempts (2023-present), including direct mining access pursuits in Argentina, Chile, and Africa, and technology transfer partnerships with Germany, Japan, France, the US, Australia, and Canada.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
J-10C Combat Debut Drives Chinese Fighter Export Surge
Pakistan's deployment of Chinese-made J-10C fighters in the May 2025 air clash with India — including claimed kills of Indian aircraft and at least one Rafale — transformed the J-10C's global market perception from a budget alternative to a combat-proven platform.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Shadow-Earth-053 China-Aligned Dual-Track Cyber Espionage Campaign Disclosed
Trend Micro disclosed Shadow-Earth-053, a China-aligned cyber espionage campaign active since at least December 2024, targeting government and defense networks across Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and NATO member Poland.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Amid Structural U.S.-China Strategic Divergence
The anticipated mid-May 2025 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing will likely produce a prolonged trade truce but no structural resolution to the bilateral rivalry.
Apr 27, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan-China Summit: CPEC Expansion and Strategic Alignment Reaffirmed
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Beijing for high-level meetings with Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, and Wang Yi, producing a joint statement and multiple MoUs.
Apr 24, 2025
Mixed
Military
Pakistan Defence Minister Issues Nuclear Deterrence Warning to India
Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif issued a public warning to Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh via social media, invoking nuclear deterrence and referencing the 2025 Pahalgam attack and its military aftermath.
Apr 21, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
North Korea-Russia Infrastructure and Institutional Integration Acceleration
North Korea and Russia completed a vehicular bridge linking the two countries on April 21, inaugurated a joint memorial museum honoring DPRK soldiers who fought in Ukraine, broke ground on a bilateral friendship hospital, and conducted high-level ministerial exchanges including a security sector meeting.
Apr 21, 2025
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Navy Operationalizes Layered A2/AD Maritime Strike Architecture
Pakistan Navy conducted a series of missile tests in April 2025, including the Taimoor air-launched cruise missile (600 km range), the P282 SMASH supersonic anti-ship ballistic missile (450 km range, ship-launched), and the LY-80(N) surface-to-air missile system.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China's Failed Mediation of Pakistan-Taliban Border Conflict
China has attempted to position itself as a mediator between Pakistan and the Taliban amid an escalating border conflict driven by TTP operations from Afghan territory.
Apr 20, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit and 'Strategic Stability' Framework Agreement
At a bilateral summit in Beijing, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump agreed to frame China-U.S. relations as a 'constructive relationship of strategic stability,' acknowledging long-term competition while committing to keep it manageable.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Great-Power Deterrence Posture Structural Degradation Assessment
A structural assessment finds that U.S. capacity to deter great-power conflict is declining due to compounding deficits across soft power, alliance cohesion, and hard-power flexibility.
Apr 19, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Colombo Security Conclave Upgraded to Permanent Regional Security Organisation
Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri confirmed on 19 April that the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) would be institutionalised as a formal regional security organisation with a permanent secretariat in Colombo and a Secretary-General-led structure, to be headed by a former Indian Navy vice chief.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
India Launches Second IOS Sagar Multilateral Naval Deployment
India deployed a warship from Mumbai under the IOS Sagar initiative with 38 personnel from 16 nations embedded as an operational crew, spanning the Maldives, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
India Strategic Autonomy Doctrine Reorientation Amid Global Disorder
India's foreign policy establishment, as articulated by former National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon, is recalibrating its strategic doctrine in response to the collapse of the post-WWII multilateral order.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Political
BJP Consolidates Pan-Indian Electoral Dominance Across State Elections
The BJP and its National Democratic Alliance allies now control 22 of India's 36 states and union territories following recent state elections, including a landmark victory in West Bengal — historically outside the BJP's Hindi-heartland base.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Deploys 8,000 Troops and Combat Aircraft to Saudi Arabia Under Mutual Defence Pact
Pakistan has deployed approximately 8,000 troops, a squadron of JF-17 fighters, two drone squadrons, and a Chinese HQ-9 air defence system to Saudi Arabia under a confidential mutual defence pact signed in 2024.
Mar 22, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Taiwan Reverses Nuclear Phase-Out Policy Under Energy Security Pressure
President Lai Ching-te announced on March 22 that Taipower would submit plans to restart two previously decommissioned nuclear reactors — Guosheng No. 2 and Maanshan No. 3 — reversing a core DPP anti-nuclear position held for decades.
Feb 28, 2025
Mixed
Military
Pakistan-Afghanistan Open War: Airstrikes, Border Closure, and Failed Chinese Mediation
Pakistan declared 'open war' on Afghanistan in late February 2025, conducting dozens of airstrikes on Afghan cities and military infrastructure, closing the shared border, and expelling Afghans en masse.
Feb 26, 2025
Mixed
Military
Pakistan-Afghanistan Open War: Pakistani Airstrikes and Taliban Ground Offensive
Pakistan launched near-daily airstrikes across Afghanistan beginning February 26, targeting weapons depots, military bases including Bagram, and civilian areas across 10 provinces, killing at least 76 civilians per UN documentation.
Jan 27, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Trump Golden Dome Missile Defense Initiative Launched
President Trump's January 27, 2025 executive order directed the construction of a comprehensive homeland missile defense architecture — Golden Dome — designed to intercept ballistic, hypersonic, and advanced cruise missiles from peer, near-peer, and rogue adversaries.
Jan 22, 2025
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Security Forces Kill Eight TTP Militants in North Waziristan
Pakistani security forces killed eight TTP-affiliated militants during a border engagement in North Waziristan after detecting militant movement along the Pak-Afghan frontier.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
India Launches National Critical Mineral Mission Amid Structural Supply Chain Vulnerability
India launched the National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM) in 2025 in response to deepening import dependence across mineral value chains dominated by China.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
China REE Export Controls Trigger Global Supply Chain Diversification
China implemented escalating rare earth export controls in 2025, leveraging its near-monopoly on REE production and processing to exert structural pressure on global supply chains.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Japan Accelerates Defense Spending to 2% GDP Under Takaichi
Japan reached 2% of GDP in defense spending in 2025, two years ahead of schedule, marking the first sustained break from the 1% GDP ceiling maintained since the 1970s.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
India-Russia Strategic Relationship Reassessment Amid China Alignment
India's public posture toward Russia remains strongly favorable despite Russia's deepening alignment with China following the 2022 Ukraine invasion — a structural contradiction that exposes a widening gap between Indian sentiment and Indian strategic interest.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
CFR Assessment of U.S.-India Democratic Convergence and Strategic Alignment
A Council on Foreign Relations analytical project reframes the U.S.-India relationship by shifting the evaluative lens from domestic democratic performance to engagement with liberal norms in the international order.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China Fails to Convert U.S. Geostrategic Retreat into Durable Influence Gains
Since January 2025, Trump administration policies have created a structural vacuum in U.S. global leadership, theoretically advantaging China.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Other
US-China Economic and Security Review Commission 2025 Report Release
The 2025 USCC annual report to Congress concludes that China has achieved leadership positions across multiple advanced technology sectors previously assumed to be US-dominated, including EVs, solar manufacturing, quantum computing pathways, and pharmaceutical supply chains.
Jan 1, 2025
Stable
Diplomatic
Senate Armed Services Committee Session on U.S. Defense Strategy and Emerging Technologies
Members of the Senate Armed Services Committee convened to discuss U.S. defense priorities in the context of great power competition, power diffusion, and disruptive technologies including AI and autonomous weapons.
Nov 1, 2024
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-China Lima AI-Nuclear Human Control Commitment Faces Implementation Test
The United States and China jointly stated in November 2024 that humans must remain involved in any decision to use nuclear weapons when AI is implicated.
Sep 9, 2023
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-India Strategic Architecture Deepening: Quad, iCET, State Visit, and IMEC
Across a sequence of high-protocol engagements — the first in-person Quad leaders' summit, the iCET bilateral technology and defense initiative, Modi's state visit to Washington, and Biden's G20 visit to New Delhi — the United States and India institutionalized a multi-domain strategic partnership.
Jan 1, 2023
Escalating
Institutional
Australia Establishes Directorate of Net Assessment in Department of Defence
The Albanese government created a Directorate of Net Assessment (DNA) within the Department of Defence in 2023, marking Australia's first institutionalised net assessment capability.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
India's Persistent Dependence on US Fighter Engines
India's indigenous fighter programs remain anchored to US GE engines amid a tripling of prototype engine costs, stalled commercial talks on licensed manufacture, and a fighter-squadron shortfall of 29 against 42 sanctioned.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Bangladesh Institutionalizes Its China Partnership
PM Rahman's visit to China continued a strikingly consistent Bangladesh-China policy across three governments, formalizing strategic dialogue, a 2+2 mechanism and support for Bangladesh's BRICS and SCO ambitions.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Japan-India Deepen Economic and Security Ties as Takaichi Visits Delhi
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi makes her first visit to India to meet Narendra Modi, joined by more than 50 Japanese firms, as the two democracies deepen economic and security cooperation with China in mind.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
US Defense Industrial Base Wartime Footing Progress Assessment
The US Pentagon, having declared a wartime industrial footing goal in November 2025, has made measurable progress in attracting new and nontraditional defense firms, building munitions magazine depth through a high-low mix strategy, investing in rare earth mine-to-magnet supply chains outside Chinese control, and driving foreign military sales.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
US-China Southeast Asian Influence Competition Shifts Toward Minilateral Bloc Framing
Strategic analysis documents an ongoing structural shift in Southeast Asian influence competition: China has surpassed the United States as the dominant trade partner and investment source across nearly all major ASEAN states, and Beijing's diplomatic engagement volume outpaces Washington's by a factor of more than two.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Seeks to Leverage Iran Mediation for Global Influence
Pakistan's mediation of the U.S.-Iran framework deal, announced first by PM Shehbaz Sharif, positions Islamabad to claim enhanced global influence.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
UAE-India G42 Sovereign AI Supercomputer Deal
The UAE's state-owned G42, with the Mohamed Bin Zayed University and U.S. firm Cerebras, agreed to build an 8-exaflop AI supercomputer in India, funded by Emirati capital on American chips but governed by India's data-localization framework.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
US-Led Pax Silica Initiative Integrates Semiconductor Supply Chains Against China
The US Pax Silica Initiative uses semiconductor and critical-mineral cooperation across the Indo-Pacific as a strategic response to China's dominance over rare-earth processing and upstream supply chains.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US Reverts Indo-Pacific Command to Pacific Command, Downgrading Indian Ocean Theater
Washington redesignates its Indo-Pacific Command back to US Pacific Command, treating the Indian Ocean as a secondary, back-up theater and signaling that ties with New Delhi are subsidiary to relations with China and Pakistan.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Consolidation of the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea Autocratic Axis
The deepening economic, military, and technological coordination among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea forms a revisionist heartland bloc aimed at rupturing the US-led rimland order.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Lowy Poll Signals Erosion of Australia's Nuclear Taboo
New Lowy Institute polling shows declining Australian opposition to nuclear weapons, reflecting eroding trust in the U.S. extended-deterrence umbrella.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
India Positions for Strategic Autonomy in a Contested Order
Menon frames a world 'between orders' in which five centuries of Western maritime and economic dominance face credible challenge from continental powers turned maritime, first Russia and then China.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China Signals Discontent Over U.S. Influence in Nepal
During a Beijing meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pressed Nepal's foreign minister over perceived U.S. encroachment, invoking China as the 'close neighbor' versus the U.S. 'distant relative.' Beijing is unsettled by the fall of pro-China leader Oli, the new Shah government, and Kathmandu's accommodation of U.S. interests on Tibetan refugees, Starlink, and BRI skepticism.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Wang Yi to Attend BRICS National Security Advisers Meeting Hosted by India
China's foreign minister is set to attend a two-day meeting of national security advisers hosted by India in New Delhi, signaling a cautious thaw in a relationship strained by a territorial dispute and India's anxiety over economic dependence.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
India Anchors U.S. Relationship in Technology Cooperation Amid Trump-Era Strain
India positions deepening technology partnerships with the United States, in semiconductors, AI infrastructure, space, and critical minerals, as the stabilizing core of a relationship otherwise strained by tariff disputes and immigration restrictions.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Taiwan Advances Integrated Diplomacy and Trade Diversification Across South and Southeast Asia
Taiwan's "integrated diplomacy" strategy uses economic, alliance, and values pillars to expand its international space, leaning hardest on trade to embed material self-interest in cross-strait stability among NSP-region partners.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump-Modi G-7 Meeting Amid Strained U.S.-India Ties
The anticipated Trump-Modi meeting aims to stabilize a relationship drifting from convergence toward divergence after tariffs, a stalled trade deal, and the Iran war's disruption of India's oil supply.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Disengagement Reshapes Global Governance Architecture
The piece frames a structural erosion of the U.S.-anchored multilateral order as major powers pursue selective engagement, disengagement, or active dismantling of legacy institutions.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Renewed Strategic Interest in Spent Nuclear Fuel Reprocessing
The analysis maps how a projected global nuclear expansion is reviving interest in spent-fuel reprocessing, an area where structural advantage concentrates in the few states that mastered the fuel cycle.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Central Asia Multi-Alignment Leverage Consolidation
Central Asian states are converting geographic centrality into structural leverage as maritime-trade disruption from the Iran-U.S. war and Russia's estrangement from G7 economies narrow viable logistics options for neighboring powers.
Date unknown
Mixed
Institutional
US Adopts Transactional Western Balkans Strategy
A US State Department report formally reorients Washington's Western Balkans policy away from democracy-first conditionality toward a transactional doctrine built on security cooperation, energy, and economic ties, with countering Russian and Chinese influence as the primary lens.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Collapse of Performative International Law Compliance Among Major Powers
The article diagnoses a structural inflection point in which the United States, Russia, and China have abandoned even the performative pretense of compliance with international law — a shift from strategic hypocrisy to open rejection.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Global Middle-Power Military AI Procurement Race
Middle powers are actively procuring and integrating AI into military operations, choosing among three pathways: frontier closed-weight models from U.S. labs, open-weight general-purpose models, or narrow tactical AI.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Modi Invited to G7 Summit in Évian as Special Guest
India's Prime Minister Modi is set to attend the 2026 G7 Summit in Évian, France, as a special invitee — continuing a pattern of over a dozen such invitations since 2003.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Friendly Proliferation Enters Mainstream U.S. Strategic Debate
The concept of 'friendly proliferation' — permitting or assisting allies to acquire nuclear capabilities — has transitioned from a marginal academic discussion to a mainstream policy contingency within the U.S. strategic community by 2026.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Analytical Framing: Emergence of the Bipolar Trap in U.S.-China Rivalry
This analytical piece argues that the U.S.-China rivalry is progressively narrowing the structural space available to third-party states, forcing alignment choices that erode strategic autonomy.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Southeast Asia Defence Partnership Realignment: Middle Power Surge and US-China Divergence (2017–2024)
Between 2017 and 2024, Southeast Asian countries signed a surge of new defence agreements, with Quad members Australia, India, and Japan collectively signing 38 new agreements versus 22 combined for the US and China.
Date unknown
Mixed
Sanctions
Global Critical Minerals Supply Chain Competition Intensifies
A structural realignment is underway in global critical minerals supply chains as producer nations — including DRC, Zambia, Brazil, Indonesia, Zimbabwe, and Ghana — assert resource nationalism by restricting raw mineral exports and demanding value-chain investment.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Analytical Framework: Four-Power Great-Power Configuration Assessed
A longform analytical piece argues that the current great-power system comprises exactly four states — the United States, China, Russia, and the United Kingdom — based on a four-criteria framework of resources, reach, reputation, and resilience.
Date unknown
Stable
Alliance
Debate Over Formalisation of Indo-Pacific Security Architecture
A policy debate has emerged over whether Indo-Pacific security cooperation should be formalised into a treaty-based collective defence pact, prompted by former Biden official Ely Ratner's proposal.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting — New Delhi Critical Minerals and Energy Security Framework
The Quad foreign ministers convened in New Delhi, producing a joint statement and Critical Minerals Initiative Framework that reframes the grouping's purpose around economic resilience, supply chain security, and technological coordination rather than conventional military deterrence.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Munitions Inventory Assessment at Iran War Ceasefire
Following a ceasefire in a U.S.-Iran war, CSIS analysts assess whether consumption of precision munitions — including Tomahawks and Patriot interceptors — has degraded U.S. military readiness to the point of strategic constraint.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Nepal Hydropower Export Strategy Constrained by Indian Hydro-Hegemony
Nepal's 28.5 GW hydropower target by 2035 — with 15 GW earmarked for export — is structurally dependent on India as both the primary buyer and the exclusive transit corridor to Bangladesh.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting, New Delhi
The Foreign Ministers of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States convened in New Delhi for the Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio representing Washington.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
France Refuses ICD Transfer in Rafale Acquisition Negotiations with India
France has declined to provide India with the Interface Control Document for the Rafale jet, a moderately sensitive but operationally critical data package governing avionics, sensor, and mission-system interoperability.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
India Multialignment Stress Test: Simultaneous Quad, BRICS, Gulf, and European Engagements
India is simultaneously hosting BRICS foreign ministers, preparing for Quad foreign ministers, conducting a Modi five-nation tour (UAE, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Italy), and managing the diplomatic fallout of the Trump-Xi meeting and Putin's China visit.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Quad Leaders' Summit Downgraded to Foreign Minister Level
The Quad's planned leaders' summit failed to convene in India in 2024, and the grouping has been downgraded to a foreign minister-level meeting during Secretary Rubio's May 2025 India visit.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Rubio First Official Visit to New Delhi
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is traveling to New Delhi for his first official visit since taking office
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
LEO Satellite Governance Divergence Across Indo-Pacific States
Indo-Pacific governments are adopting divergent regulatory postures toward LEO satellite providers, ranging from restrictive licensing (Pakistan, India, Singapore) to community-gateway models (Nauru, Kiribati) and integration with terrestrial 5G networks (Australia, Japan, Philippines).
Conflict / Asia-Pacific
India widens its military edge as Pakistan pivots to Eurasian corridors and US strategic attention shifts away from South Asia.
Simmering / Asia-Pacific
India deepens Japan and Mongolia ties and accelerates drones while China tightens its grip on Bangladesh and Myanmar.