Conflict / Asia-Pacific
India-China-Pakistan Nuclear Triangle
Munir consolidates power after Operation Sindoor as U.S. strategic neglect and China's deepening regional reach widen pressure on India.
India and Pakistan have fought over Kashmir since 1947, when British India was partitioned and the Hindu ruler of Muslim-majority Kashmir acceded to India.
Three wars and countless skirmishes later, the territory remains split along a militarized Line of Control, with China holding a third slice in the east. Pakistan's intelligence service backs militant groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, whose attacks on Indian targets repeatedly trigger cross-border retaliation. China now arms and aligns with Pakistan through CPEC; India fights as the dominant conventional power. Both sides went nuclear in 1998.
Every crisis since has carried the risk of becoming the first nuclear exchange between states.
No direct military exchange has followed Operation Sindoor, but both sides are accelerating posture shifts that compress the space for managed de-escalation.
India's post-Sindoor drone procurement surge, now the largest unmanned systems order in Indian history, combined with a new joint air defense doctrine integrating layered missile defense and tri-service theater commands, raises New Delhi's confidence in absorbing a Pakistani first strike and lowers the threshold for limited conventional action.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
India's post-Sindoor drone procurement and joint air defense doctrine create a structural escalation paradox.
Washington's reversion to Pacific Command and the failed Modi-Trump G7 reset remove the external pressure that historically constrained both sides during crises.
Pakistan's activation of Afghanistan-bypassing Central Asian trade corridors and CPEC 2.0 deepening reduce Islamabad's economic dependence on Indian goodwill but also tighten its structural alignment with China.
India revoked Article 370, stripping Jammu and Kashmir of its special autonomous status and splitting it into two federally administered territories, drawing fierce condemnation from Pakistan and mass protests inside Kashmir.
A Jaish-e-Mohammed attack on an Indian army base in Uri killed 18 soldiers; India responded with cross-border "surgical strikes," escalating the cycle of militant attacks and military retaliation.
Pakistani regular soldiers disguised as militants seized strategic peaks in the Kargil district; India retook them in a two-month war, and the standoff between two nuclear-armed states alarmed the world.
Both India and Pakistan conducted nuclear weapons tests within weeks of each other, transforming Kashmir into one of the world's most dangerous nuclear flashpoints.
A homegrown Kashmiri insurgency erupted against Indian rule, later bolstered by Pakistan-backed militant groups including Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed; tens of thousands died over the following decades.
Pakistan launched Operation Gibraltar, infiltrating fighters into Kashmir to spark an uprising; the resulting full-scale India-Pakistan war ended in stalemate, cementing the territorial division.
A UN-brokered ceasefire formalized the Line of Control; a UN resolution called for a plebiscite to let Kashmiris choose their future, a vote that was never held and remains a core grievance.
Pakistan's ISI supports Lashkar-e-Taiba as a deniable militant instrument against Indian targets in Kashmir, providing sanctuary, training, and financing.
Pakistan's ISI supports Jaish-e-Mohammed as a cross-border pressure tool capable of generating crisis pretexts and triggering Indian punitive strikes.
China's AVIC engineers were physically embedded at Pakistani operational air bases during the May 2025 Sindoor exchange, providing real-time technical support.
Chinese J-10CE fighters and PL-15E missiles were deployed by Pakistan against Indian forces during Sindoor, making China a material participant in the exchange.
Bangladesh's interim government signed a security MoU with Pakistan in May 2025 covering intelligence exchange.
PAKISTAN-BACKED GROUPS
Pakistan's ISI provides sanctuary, training, funding to LeT and JeM (designated terrorist organizations by UN, US).
CHINA-PAKISTAN
CPEC deepens China-Pakistan strategic alignment.
India
No external patron needed — dominant conventional power.
US
Historically mediating; pressures Pakistan on terrorism.
Jun 26, 2026
Stable
Legal
Pakistan Passes Growth-Centric FY2026-27 Budget
Pakistan's parliament passed a roughly $67 billion FY2026-27 budget pivoting toward export-led growth via Super Tax cuts, FBR digitization, and incentives for IT, remittances, and CPEC 2.0 joint ventures.
Jun 20, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Bangladesh PM Rahman's First Foreign Trip to Malaysia and China
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's inaugural overseas trip targets Chinese investment and Malaysian labor markets, with up to 17 bilateral instruments and the Teesta River project on the China agenda.
Jun 19, 2026
Escalating
Political
Munir Consolidation Pushes PTI Toward Charter-of-Democracy Compromise
Field Marshal Asim Munir's ascendancy has hardened a permanent hybrid regime in which the army dictates outcomes and civilian parties compete for shrinking space.
Jun 17, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Modi-Trump G7 Meeting Fails to Reset US-India Ties
Modi and Trump met on the sidelines of the G7 in France to stabilize a relationship strained over the past year, but the encounter is unlikely to restore the prior partnership.
Jun 11, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
US Killing of Indian Sailors Strains but Does Not Break India-US Ties
US military operations enforcing the Hormuz blockade killed three Indian nationals aboard the tanker MT Settebello and left another sailor's body unrecoverable, prompting India to summon the US charge d'affaires and Secretary of State Rubio to defend the action against illicit Iranian oil transport.
Jun 9, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Pakistan Crackdown on Kashmir Protests Over Reserved Seats
Islamabad's security forces violently suppressed protests in Pakistan-administered Kashmir demanding governance reform and abolition of 12 reserved legislative seats, killing at least 15 people amid mass arrests and communications blackouts.
Jun 5, 2026
Stable
Alliance
Russia Renews SU-57 Co-Production Offer to India Amid IAF Capability Gap
At the St. Petersburg forum on June 5, Putin offered India joint production of the SU-57 fifth-generation fighter without limitations, as the IAF's squadron strength fell to 29 against a sanctioned 42 amid stalled indigenous LCA deliveries.
May 29, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
India Releases Joint Air Defense Doctrine
India's Chief of Defense Staff released a joint air defense doctrine establishing an integrated, layered architecture against drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, and saturation attacks, advancing tri-service integration and the theater-command project.
May 13, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Seeks to Link Gwadar Port to Russia-Backed INSTC
Pakistan publicly proposed linking the China-operated Gwadar port to the Russia-backed INSTC at a Russia-Pakistan conference in Kazan, and Russia confirmed active talks including possible railway links.
May 10, 2026
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Army Chief Munir Delivers Marka-e-Haq Anniversary Doctrine Address
On the first anniversary of Pakistan's military response to India's Operation Sindoor, Army Chief Asim Munir delivered a comprehensive doctrinal address at GHQ Rawalpindi signaling a shift from defensive to assertive strategic posture.
May 7, 2026
Mixed
Political
India Marks One-Year Anniversary of Operation Sindoor Amid Persistent Kashmir Governance Deficits
India's government staged nationwide commemorations of Operation Sindoor's first anniversary, framing the 2025 cross-border strikes as a victory that restored normalcy to Kashmir.
May 7, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Post-Operation Sindoor LoC Civilian Abandonment — One-Year Assessment
One year after the May 7–10, 2025 India-Pakistan military exchange, border communities along the Line of Control in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir remain structurally exposed.
May 3, 2026
Escalating
Other
India Launches World's First OptoSAR Satellite via Private Startup GalaxEye
Indian startup GalaxEye successfully launched the world's first OptoSAR satellite, combining optical and synthetic aperture radar imaging to enable high-quality earth observation under cloud cover — a capability gap directly relevant to tropical geographies.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Russia-Taliban Military-Technical Cooperation Agreement
Russia and Afghanistan's Taliban government concluded a military-technical cooperation agreement in late May 2026, formalized during Taliban Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob's visit to Moscow.
May 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Rubio India Visit and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is scheduled to travel to India to attend the Quad foreign ministers' meeting alongside counterparts from Australia, Japan, and India, and to hold bilateral discussions on trade and energy.
Apr 22, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Pahalgam Tourist Massacre One-Year Economic Assessment
One year after gunmen killed 26 tourists — 25 of them Hindus — in Pahalgam, Kashmir's tourism-dependent local economy remains structurally impaired.
Apr 20, 2026
Escalating
Political
Pakistan's Post-Operation Sindoor International Rehabilitation and Munir Power Consolidation
Over the twelve months following Operation Sindoor, Pakistan has executed a strategic repositioning that transformed a military confrontation with India into a platform for international rehabilitation.
Apr 20, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Lakshadweep Fishermen Alienation Undermines India's Maritime Intelligence Network
India's Coast Guard relies on Lakshadweep fishermen as a de facto distributed intelligence network to identify suspicious vessels, narcotics trafficking, illegal fishing, and possible surveillance activity across a vast maritime zone.
Apr 16, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Carnegie India Highlights Structural Gaps in Nuclear Delivery System Controls
The event is an analytical intervention rather than a new policy act, but it identifies a durable structural weakness in the non-proliferation regime: delivery systems remain weakly regulated compared with warheads and fissile material.
Apr 15, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Saudi Arabia Withdraws Financing for Pakistan-Sudan Arms Deal
Saudi Arabia withdrew financing for a proposed $1.5 billion Pakistan-Sudan arms deal and urged Islamabad to terminate it, collapsing Pakistan's intended gateway into African security markets.
Apr 7, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
GCC-Wide Ban on Indian Hyper-Nationalist Films Dhurandhar and Sequel
All six GCC member states have banned the Bollywood spy thrillers Dhurandhar and Dhurandhar: The Revenge, which grossed over $315 million globally, citing negative depictions of Pakistan and Islamophobic content.
Apr 7, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistani Opposition Presses Government for Crisis Briefing and De-escalation Posture
Pakistani opposition leaders from PTI and JUI-F publicly demanded institutional consultation on the regional crisis, including a multi-party conference and an in-camera parliamentary briefing.
Apr 7, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
India-US Air Force Engagement on Engine Supply and Defence Industrial Cooperation
The Indian Air Chief's US visit signals an effort to convert a broad strategic partnership into more reliable defence-industrial output, especially around fighter engine supply and co-production.
Apr 5, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Seeks Multi-Front Strategic Balancing Amid India, Afghanistan, and Iran-US Pressures
Pakistan is portrayed as attempting to manage concurrent pressures from India, Afghanistan, and the Iran-US conflict through diplomacy with China, Gulf states, Tehran, and Washington.
Apr 2, 2026
Escalating
Military
India Issues Standing Deterrent Warning to Pakistan Post-Operation Sindoor
Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh publicly declared that Operation Sindoor remains an active posture and warned Pakistan of 'unprecedented' military consequences for any future provocation.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Activates Afghanistan-Bypassing Central Asian Trade Corridors
In April 2026, Pakistan launched the first TIR-regime export consignment from Karachi to Kyrgyzstan via the Sost Dry Port and operationalized the Pakistan-Iran Transit Corridor, routing Central Asian trade through Iran and China rather than Afghanistan.
Apr 1, 2026
Mixed
Cyber
India Bans Non-Certified Chinese Surveillance Hardware After ISI Espionage Case
After the Ghaziabad case exposed a Pakistani ISI network streaming footage of Indian defense sites via Chinese CCTV cameras to servers in China, New Delhi ordered a nationwide audit and banned non-certified internet-connected cameras from April 2026.
Apr 1, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
India Appoints BJP Politician as High Commissioner to Bangladesh
India appointed Dinesh Trivedi, a BJP politician with deep West Bengal roots, as its new High Commissioner to Bangladesh — breaking with the established norm of sending career diplomats to Dhaka.
Apr 1, 2026
Stable
Alliance
Bangladesh BRI Decade Assessment: Partial Implementation and Sustained Neutrality
Nearly a decade after joining the BRI in October 2016, Bangladesh has received only $4.45 billion of a pledged $40 billion, with Chinese firms securing contracts worth $22.94 billion across 35-40 projects in transport and energy.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Military Kills Eight TTP Militants in North Waziristan Border Operation
Pakistani security forces killed eight TTP-affiliated militants near the Afghanistan border in North Waziristan on April 1, 2026, recovering weapons and ammunition.
Apr 1, 2026
Mixed
Military
Indian Navy Discloses Near-Strike on Pakistan During Operation Sindoor
Indian Navy Chief Admiral Tripathi publicly confirmed that Indian naval units were minutes away from executing sea-based strikes against Pakistan during Operation Sindoor — the military response to the Pahalgam terror attack — when Islamabad requested a ceasefire.
Mar 31, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
UAE Pressures Pakistan by Seeking Return of Deposits
The UAE sought the return of roughly $3.5 billion in deposits from Pakistan after limiting rollover support to monthly extensions, signaling that emergency financing would no longer be insulated from political disagreement.
Mar 28, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Assumes U.S.-Iran Back-Channel Mediation Role
Pakistan has positioned itself as a key back-channel facilitator in U.S.-Iran negotiations, delivering America's 15-point peace plan to Tehran and offering to host multilateral peace talks.
Mar 13, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Issues 15th Five-Year Plan Defense Outline for PLA Modernization
China's 15th Five-Year Plan outline elevates military governance, doctrinal modernization, and military-civil fusion as core defense priorities through 2030.
Mar 1, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Establishes Cenling County on Xinjiang-Afghanistan Border
China carved out Cenling County from Taxkorgan Tajik Autonomous County in Xinjiang in March 2026, placing new administrative governance directly along the Wakhan Corridor border with Afghanistan.
Feb 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Strait of Hormuz Closure Imposes Systemic Energy-Food Shock on Asia
The escalation of conflict involving Iran, effective from 28 February 2026, resulted in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 80% of Asia's oil and gas imports transit.
Feb 26, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Pakistan Launches Operation Ghazab lil-Haq Against Taliban
Pakistan initiated large-scale airstrikes against Taliban-held targets in Afghanistan, including Kabul, signaling a shift from border management to direct coercion of the regime.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
India's Structural Positioning Within a Fracturing Liberal International Order
India has consolidated a durable posture of selective LIO engagement across four security domains — alliances, security communities, crisis management, and nuclear governance — deepening bilateral defense cooperation with the United States while refusing binding alliance commitments.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Emerges as West Asian Security Stabilizer and U.S.-Iran Mediator
Following its May 2025 military conflict with India, Pakistan signed a NATO-like mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia and joined the Trump administration's Gaza Peace Board in January 2026.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
India-EU Security and Defense Partnership Signed
India and the European Union formalized a Security and Defense Partnership in January 2026, complementing the India-EU Free Trade Agreement signed in 2025.
Jan 1, 2026
Stable
Other
Carnegie India Discussion on Female Militancy in South Asia
Carnegie India hosted a discussion on Ayesha Ray's book examining women's participation in militant movements across India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh.
Aug 2, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
China Achieves Structural Battery Supply Chain Dominance with Dual-Use Military Implications
China now controls over 80 percent of global battery cell production and 98 percent of LFP cathode output, with projected capacity exceeding 4,800 GWh by 2030.
Jul 18, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
India-Netherlands Strategic Partnership Announcement
Indian Prime Minister Modi's visit to the Netherlands is expected to formalize a bilateral strategic partnership, elevating a relationship that has grown substantially in trade, technology, and supply-chain diversification but lacked political anchoring.
Jul 17, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
US-India Interim Trade Deal Negotiations Stall Amid New Forced Labour Tariff Proposals
US and Indian delegations held talks in Delhi aimed at finalising an interim bilateral trade agreement, but negotiations were complicated by a new US proposal to impose an additional 12.5% tariff on Indian exports over forced labour concerns.
Jul 15, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Reposts 'Hellhole' Comment on India, Triggering Diplomatic Rebuke
President Trump reposted commentary on Truth Social describing India as a 'hellhole,' prompting India's Ministry of External Affairs to issue a formal rebuke calling the remarks 'uninformed, inappropriate and in poor taste.' The incident is the latest in a series of friction points — including 50% cumulative tariffs, deportation of Indian nationals in shackles, U.S. mediation claims in the India-Pakistan conflict, and warming U.S.-Pakistan ties — that have structurally degraded the India-U.S. strategic partnership.
Jul 15, 2025
Mixed
Military
Indian Navy Chief Discloses Near-Strike on Pakistan During Operation Sindoor
Admiral Dinesh K Tripathi publicly stated that Indian naval forces were minutes from launching sea-based strikes on Pakistan when Islamabad requested a halt to kinetic operations during Operation Sindoor in May 2025.
Jul 14, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
India Approves $25 Billion Military Modernization Including Additional S-400 Acquisition
India's Defense Acquisition Council approved a $25 billion package encompassing five additional S-400 Triumf air defense systems from Russia, 60 remotely piloted strike aircraft, and 60 multirole transport aircraft.
Jul 14, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
India Approves $25 Billion Defense Modernization Package with S-400 Expansion
India's Defense Acquisition Council approved a $25 billion military modernization package including five additional S-400 air defense systems from Russia, 60 remotely piloted strike aircraft, and 60 multirole transport aircraft.
Jul 8, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Rubio India Visit Exposes U.S.-India Trust Deficit
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio concluded a four-day visit to India, securing a nominal pledge of $500 billion in U.S. goods purchases and participating in a Quad foreign ministers summit.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Armenia Pursues Licensed Domestic Production of Indian Munitions
Armenia is in discussions to establish domestic production lines for Indian munitions under license, including 155mm artillery shells and Pinaka multiple-launch rocket systems, following a $265 million Pinaka procurement deal in 2022.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
China Mobilizes Overseas Security Architecture Amid U.S. Order Decline
China's Ministry of State Security, under Minister Chen Yixin, has issued a directive to build an integrated overseas security protection system 'across the entire chain,' codifying and expanding China's capacity to protect BRI investments, nationals, and strategic assets globally.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Other
China's Overseas Port Network: Systemic Economic, Political, and Security Assessment
A structured analytical assessment of China's global port footprint identifies a multi-vector influence architecture operating through commercial operators, state-backed financing, and infrastructure dependency.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Pakistan Military Consolidates Formal Constitutional Authority Under Munir
Under Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's military has achieved its deepest formal entrenchment in the constitutional order in the country's modern history, using constitutional redesign and a compliant civilian coalition to insulate military authority from political challenge.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
EU Concludes Four Major Free-Trade Agreements in Seven Months
The European Union concluded free-trade agreements with Australia, India, Indonesia, and Mercosur within a seven-month window, representing the most concentrated expansion of the EU's trade network in its history.
Jun 27, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
India Maintains Ambiguous Stance in Iran War
India has responded to the Iran war with generalized calls for de-escalation while avoiding explicit condemnation of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran.
Jun 22, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Stalls, Asian Allies Reassess Strategic Exposure
The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is described as near collapse, with negotiations stalled and no clear resolution pathway. Across Asia, U.S. allies, Central Asian energy exporters
Jun 21, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Pakistan Issues Retaliatory Threat Against India Over Alleged False-Flag Scenario
Pakistan's defence minister publicly threatened to extend retaliation to Kolkata if India conducts what Islamabad characterizes as a false-flag operation.
Jun 4, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Termez Dialogue Flags Climate Viability Risk for Central-South Asia Connectivity Corridors
The second Termez Dialogue, held June 4-6 in Uzbekistan, convened regional stakeholders to assess connectivity between Central and South Asia, with a specific focus on climate resilience risks to CASA-1000, TAPI, and INSTC.
Jun 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Positions as US-Iran Mediation Hub Under Munir's Leadership
Pakistan's de facto ruler Field Marshal Asim Munir has leveraged Pakistan's diplomatic positioning to offer Islamabad as the venue for US-Iran negotiations, with JD Vance reportedly considering a visit.
May 31, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
India-Africa Forum Summit IV Convened in New Delhi
India hosts its fourth leader-level Africa summit (IAFS-IV) in New Delhi on May 31, 2025 — the first such convening in 11 years — under the theme of strategic partnership for innovation, resilience, and inclusive transformation.
May 29, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Gupta Sentencing and Yadav Extradition Exposure in Pannun Assassination Plot
US federal court sentencing of Indian national Nikhil Gupta — who pleaded guilty to orchestrating a failed assassination plot against Khalistan activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun — formalises US judicial findings implicating a RAW-linked Indian government employee, Vikash Yadav.
May 28, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Russia-Taliban Military-Technical Cooperation Agreement Signed
Russia and the Taliban signed a military-technical cooperation agreement on the sidelines of the International Security Forum outside Moscow, with Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Taliban Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoob as signatories.
May 23, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Rubio India Visit Amid U.S.-India Relationship Deterioration
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits India May 23–26, 2025, meeting Modi, Jaishankar, and Doval, and attending a Quad foreign ministers' gathering in New Delhi.
May 19, 2025
Mixed
Military
Emergence of the Global Missile War Era: Iran, Ukraine, and South Asia Conflicts
Concurrent missile conflicts across the Middle East, Europe, and South Asia — involving the US, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, India, and Pakistan — mark a structural inflection in warfare where precision strike capability has proliferated to the point that even middling powers can hold great-power assets at risk.
May 16, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
India-Azerbaijan 6th Foreign Office Consultations in Baku
India's MEA Secretary (West) Sibi George met Azerbaijan Deputy Foreign Minister Elnur Mammadov in Baku for the first bilateral Foreign Office consultations since 2022, following a year of diplomatic strain over Operation Sindoor.
May 15, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
India Launches Andhra Pradesh Defense Manufacturing Corridor Cluster
India inaugurated a cluster of strategic defense manufacturing facilities in Andhra Pradesh, including an AMCA Core Integration and Flight-Testing Center at Puttaparthi, a Naval Systems Manufacturing Facility at Visakhapatnam co-located with Eastern Naval Command, and five drone manufacturing units at Orvakal.
May 12, 2025
Escalating
Legal
EU Critical Medicines Act Council-Parliament Agreement
The EU Council and European Parliament reached agreement on a revised Critical Medicines Act on May 12, 2025, following its overwhelming passage by the European Parliament in January.
May 10, 2025
Mixed
Military
Post-Operation Sindoor South Asian Non-Contact Warfare Buildup
In the year following the May 2025 India-Pakistan crisis, both states have accelerated multi-domain non-contact warfare capability development with no bilateral communication or crisis management mechanisms in place.
May 10, 2025
De-escalating
Military
India-Pakistan May 2025 Conflict and Post-Crisis Rearmament
The May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict — triggered by the Pahalgam terrorist attack — produced the most intense cross-border conventional fighting between the two nuclear powers since Kargil 1999, including strikes on nuclear-adjacent infrastructure.
May 8, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Bangladesh-Pakistan Security MoU and High-Level Diplomatic Engagement
Pakistani Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi visited Dhaka on May 8–9, 2025, meeting Bangladesh's Home Minister and State Minister for Foreign Affairs and signing an MoU on security cooperation covering intelligence exchange, counter-narcotics, anti-money laundering, and cross-border crime.
May 8, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
China Confirms Operational Presence at Pakistani Bases During India-Pakistan Conflict
China's state broadcaster CCTV aired interviews with AVIC engineers confirming Chinese technical personnel were physically present at Pakistani operational air bases during the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, and that Chinese J-10CE fighters and PL-15E missiles were used against Indian forces.
May 8, 2025
De-escalating
Other
India-Pakistan Mutual Nuclear Deterrence Signaling Exchange
Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh warned Pakistan of an 'unprecedented and decisive' response to any misadventure, prompting Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif to issue a counter-deterrence statement invoking nuclear consequences.
May 7, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Operation Sindoor and Post-Crisis Escalation Norm Shift
India launched Operation Sindoor on May 6-7, 2025, striking terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in response to the Pahalgam attack. A four-day military exchange followed before a ceasefire on May 10.
May 7, 2025
Mixed
Military
Indian Navy Arabian Sea Coercive Deployment — Operation Sindoor
The Indian Navy deployed approximately 36 frontline warships and submarines near Karachi in the Arabian Sea, establishing a carrier battle group led by INS Vikrant with persistent surveillance and strike readiness.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
India Accelerates Indigenous Drone Production Following Operation Sindoor
India's May 2025 military confrontation with Pakistan (Operation Sindoor) triggered a structural acceleration of indigenous drone production, converting years of policy groundwork into urgent procurement.
May 1, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Rubio India Visit to Repair U.S.-India Bilateral Strain
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to New Delhi to address accumulated friction in the U.S.-India relationship stemming from Trump administration tariffs, immigration enforcement actions against Indian nationals
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Shadow-Earth-053 China-Aligned Dual-Track Cyber Espionage Campaign Disclosed
Trend Micro disclosed Shadow-Earth-053, a China-aligned cyber espionage campaign active since at least December 2024, targeting government and defense networks across Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and NATO member Poland.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
J-10C Combat Debut Drives Chinese Fighter Export Surge
Pakistan's deployment of Chinese-made J-10C fighters in the May 2025 air clash with India — including claimed kills of Indian aircraft and at least one Rafale — transformed the J-10C's global market perception from a budget alternative to a combat-proven platform.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
India Critical Minerals Strategy Review: Diplomacy-to-Delivery Gap Assessment
India's critical minerals strategy has evolved from diplomatic groundwork (2019-2022) to operationalization attempts (2023-present), including direct mining access pursuits in Argentina, Chile, and Africa, and technology transfer partnerships with Germany, Japan, France, the US, Australia, and Canada.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Commissions Chinese Hangor-Class Submarine Fleet
Pakistan commissioned its first fleet of eight Hangor-class submarines sourced from China, with four built in China and four to be manufactured domestically under a technology transfer arrangement.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
India Military Modernization Assessment Post-Operation Sindoor
A senior analyst and former Indian Army officer assesses that Operation Sindoor has surfaced deep structural gaps in India's defense posture: no published national security strategy, no integrated joint theater commands, and a defense budget still dominated by manpower costs that crowd out modernization.
Apr 27, 2025
Escalating
Legal
China Proposes Revisions to National Defense Mobilization Law
The National People's Congress released draft revisions to the 2010 National Defense Mobilization Law, the first such revision in 15 years.
Apr 27, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan-China Summit: CPEC Expansion and Strategic Alignment Reaffirmed
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Beijing for high-level meetings with Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, and Wang Yi, producing a joint statement and multiple MoUs.
Apr 25, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Zardari China State Visit: CPEC Phase II and Regional Connectivity Alignment
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari arrived in China on April 25 for a week-long visit centered on advancing CPEC's second phase — shifting from infrastructure toward industrialization, SEZs, and digital connectivity.
Apr 24, 2025
Mixed
Military
Pakistan Defence Minister Issues Nuclear Deterrence Warning to India
Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif issued a public warning to Indian counterpart Rajnath Singh via social media, invoking nuclear deterrence and referencing the 2025 Pahalgam attack and its military aftermath.
Apr 21, 2025
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Navy Operationalizes Layered A2/AD Maritime Strike Architecture
Pakistan Navy conducted a series of missile tests in April 2025, including the Taimoor air-launched cruise missile (600 km range), the P282 SMASH supersonic anti-ship ballistic missile (450 km range, ship-launched), and the LY-80(N) surface-to-air missile system.
Apr 20, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit and 'Strategic Stability' Framework Agreement
At a bilateral summit in Beijing, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump agreed to frame China-U.S. relations as a 'constructive relationship of strategic stability,' acknowledging long-term competition while committing to keep it manageable.
Apr 8, 2025
Escalating
Military
India Removes All Districts from Left-Wing Extremism Category
India's Ministry of Home Affairs announced that no district remains in the country's Left-Wing Extremism-affected category, marking the effective contraction of the Red Corridor.
Apr 3, 2025
Escalating
Political
Min Aung Hlaing Installed as Myanmar President via Junta-Controlled Parliament
On 3 April 2025, Myanmar's junta-controlled parliament voted to install Senior General Min Aung Hlaing as president, completing a staged legitimation sequence that began with sham elections in December 2025.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Political
BJP Consolidates Pan-Indian Electoral Dominance Across State Elections
The BJP and its National Democratic Alliance allies now control 22 of India's 36 states and union territories following recent state elections, including a landmark victory in West Bengal — historically outside the BJP's Hindi-heartland base.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Deploys 8,000 Troops and Combat Aircraft to Saudi Arabia Under Mutual Defence Pact
Pakistan has deployed approximately 8,000 troops, a squadron of JF-17 fighters, two drone squadrons, and a Chinese HQ-9 air defence system to Saudi Arabia under a confidential mutual defence pact signed in 2024.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
India Strategic Autonomy Doctrine Reorientation Amid Global Disorder
India's foreign policy establishment, as articulated by former National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon, is recalibrating its strategic doctrine in response to the collapse of the post-WWII multilateral order.
Mar 29, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Pakistan Emerges as U.S.-Iran Diplomatic Interlocutor, Displacing India in Regional Order
Pakistan hosted multilateral talks on March 29 with Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia to support a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, while Pakistani PM Sharif and Army chief Munir maintained separate backchannels to relay messages between Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian.
Mar 26, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Bangladesh Air Force Modernization Stagnation and Eurofighter Typhoon Procurement Collapse
Bangladesh's Independence Day parade exposed the BAF's structural obsolescence: 44 combat aircraft, 36 of which are aging Chengdu F-7 platforms, with only eight legacy MiG-29s rounding out the fleet.
Mar 24, 2025
Escalating
Political
Pakistan Crackdown on Baloch Rights Activists Amid International Mediator Role
Pakistani security forces arrested Baloch rights activists in Karachi in March 2025 following a Baloch militant train hijacking, charging peaceful protesters under terrorism laws.
Mar 24, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Delhi Court Sentences Dukhtaran-e-Millat Leader Andrabi to Life Imprisonment
On March 24, 2025, the Karkardooma Court in Delhi sentenced Aasiya Andrabi to life in prison for terrorist conspiracy, seditious activities, and promotion of Jammu and Kashmir's secession from India.
Mar 1, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
India Abandons Strategic Ambiguity on Iran Conflict, Aligns with Washington
India's sequential diplomatic moves — declining to condemn U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, rejecting Russia's UN ceasefire resolution, and supporting Bahrain's proposal condemning Iran's counterstrikes — mark a structural departure from New Delhi's historical strategic ambiguity.
Feb 28, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iran War Energy Shock Triggers Asia-Pacific Supply Chain Collapse
A war involving Iran, beginning February 28, has severed Middle Eastern energy and commodity flows to the Asia-Pacific, triggering cascading disruptions across aviation, manufacturing, and food systems.
Feb 26, 2025
Mixed
Military
Pakistan-Afghanistan Open War: Pakistani Airstrikes and Taliban Ground Offensive
Pakistan launched near-daily airstrikes across Afghanistan beginning February 26, targeting weapons depots, military bases including Bagram, and civilian areas across 10 provinces, killing at least 76 civilians per UN documentation.
Feb 1, 2025
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Bangladesh Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) Signed
The ART, signed three days before Bangladesh's February elections, provides structured U.S. market access but embeds clauses that constrain Bangladesh's strategic autonomy.
Jan 22, 2025
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Security Forces Kill Eight TTP Militants in North Waziristan
Pakistani security forces killed eight TTP-affiliated militants during a border engagement in North Waziristan after detecting militant movement along the Pak-Afghan frontier.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Japan Accelerates Defense Spending to 2% GDP Under Takaichi
Japan reached 2% of GDP in defense spending in 2025, two years ahead of schedule, marking the first sustained break from the 1% GDP ceiling maintained since the 1970s.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China Fails to Convert U.S. Geostrategic Retreat into Durable Influence Gains
Since January 2025, Trump administration policies have created a structural vacuum in U.S. global leadership, theoretically advantaging China.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
CFR Assessment of U.S.-India Democratic Convergence and Strategic Alignment
A Council on Foreign Relations analytical project reframes the U.S.-India relationship by shifting the evaluative lens from domestic democratic performance to engagement with liberal norms in the international order.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
India-Russia Strategic Relationship Reassessment Amid China Alignment
India's public posture toward Russia remains strongly favorable despite Russia's deepening alignment with China following the 2022 Ukraine invasion — a structural contradiction that exposes a widening gap between Indian sentiment and Indian strategic interest.
Jan 1, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Contested Representation Claims Over the Global South
India, Brazil, and China are each advancing competing claims to represent the Global South in multilateral forums, using different institutional vehicles — India through G20 presidency and 'Voice of the Global South' summits, Brazil through climate and development finance negotiations, China through BRICS and infrastructure financing.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Japan Expands Pacific Security Assistance Framework Under FOIP
Japan is incrementally restructuring its Pacific engagement by linking development, maritime capacity building, and new security assistance tools to its broader Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy.
Nov 1, 2024
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-China Lima AI-Nuclear Human Control Commitment Faces Implementation Test
The United States and China jointly stated in November 2024 that humans must remain involved in any decision to use nuclear weapons when AI is implicated.
Sep 26, 2023
De-escalating
Alliance
SRA-BRAS Alliance Formalizes Cross-Ethnic Insurgent Coalition Against CPEC
The Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army became the first non-Baloch organization to formally ally with Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), an umbrella alliance of Baloch armed groups.
Sep 9, 2023
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-India Strategic Architecture Deepening: Quad, iCET, State Visit, and IMEC
Across a sequence of high-protocol engagements — the first in-person Quad leaders' summit, the iCET bilateral technology and defense initiative, Modi's state visit to Washington, and Biden's G20 visit to New Delhi — the United States and India institutionalized a multi-domain strategic partnership.
Feb 3, 2021
Escalating
Institutional
India IAF Indigenous Fighter Fleet Expansion Program
India's Ministry of Defense contracted HAL for 83 Tejas Mark 1A fighters in February 2021, anchoring a broader indigenous aviation strategy targeting a fleet of 454 combat aircraft by the mid-2030s including Tejas Mark 1, 1A, Mark 2, and AMCA variants.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
India's Persistent Dependence on US Fighter Engines
India's indigenous fighter programs remain anchored to US GE engines amid a tripling of prototype engine costs, stalled commercial talks on licensed manufacture, and a fighter-squadron shortfall of 29 against 42 sanctioned.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Bangladesh Institutionalizes Its China Partnership
PM Rahman's visit to China continued a strikingly consistent Bangladesh-China policy across three governments, formalizing strategic dialogue, a 2+2 mechanism and support for Bangladesh's BRICS and SCO ambitions.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Seeks to Leverage Iran Mediation for Global Influence
Pakistan's mediation of the U.S.-Iran framework deal, announced first by PM Shehbaz Sharif, positions Islamabad to claim enhanced global influence.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US Reverts Indo-Pacific Command to Pacific Command, Downgrading Indian Ocean Theater
Washington redesignates its Indo-Pacific Command back to US Pacific Command, treating the Indian Ocean as a secondary, back-up theater and signaling that ties with New Delhi are subsidiary to relations with China and Pakistan.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
India Positions for Strategic Autonomy in a Contested Order
Menon frames a world 'between orders' in which five centuries of Western maritime and economic dominance face credible challenge from continental powers turned maritime, first Russia and then China.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Wang Yi to Attend BRICS National Security Advisers Meeting Hosted by India
China's foreign minister is set to attend a two-day meeting of national security advisers hosted by India in New Delhi, signaling a cautious thaw in a relationship strained by a territorial dispute and India's anxiety over economic dependence.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump-Modi G-7 Meeting Amid Strained U.S.-India Ties
The anticipated Trump-Modi meeting aims to stabilize a relationship drifting from convergence toward divergence after tariffs, a stalled trade deal, and the Iran war's disruption of India's oil supply.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Central Asia Multi-Alignment Leverage Consolidation
Central Asian states are converting geographic centrality into structural leverage as maritime-trade disruption from the Iran-U.S. war and Russia's estrangement from G7 economies narrow viable logistics options for neighboring powers.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Taliban Advances Qosh Tepa Canal Construction on Amu Darya
The Taliban administration is actively constructing the Qosh Tepa Canal, designed to divert up to 15 percent of the Amu Darya's flow to irrigate hundreds of thousands of hectares in northern Afghanistan.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Asim Munir Consolidates De Facto Rule While Leading Pakistan's Iran Mediation
Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's chief of army staff since 2022, has emerged as the dominant power center in Pakistan while simultaneously positioning the country as a lead mediator in the US-Iran conflict.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Modi Invited to G7 Summit in Évian as Special Guest
India's Prime Minister Modi is set to attend the 2026 G7 Summit in Évian, France, as a special invitee — continuing a pattern of over a dozen such invitations since 2003.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Pakistan Proscribes JAAC Under Anti-Terrorism Legislation Ahead of AJK Elections
The AJK government designated the Joint Awami Action Committee a proscribed organization under anti-terrorism legislation, coinciding with the opening of nomination filings for legislative elections expected on July 27.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Analytical Framing: Emergence of the Bipolar Trap in U.S.-China Rivalry
This analytical piece argues that the U.S.-China rivalry is progressively narrowing the structural space available to third-party states, forcing alignment choices that erode strategic autonomy.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Southeast Asia Defence Partnership Realignment: Middle Power Surge and US-China Divergence (2017–2024)
Between 2017 and 2024, Southeast Asian countries signed a surge of new defence agreements, with Quad members Australia, India, and Japan collectively signing 38 new agreements versus 22 combined for the US and China.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Administration Retrenchment Pressure on U.S. Indo-Pacific Alliances
The Trump administration has revived 'burden sharing' demands targeting Australia, Japan, and South Korea — Washington's three most integrated Indo-Pacific partners.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting — New Delhi Critical Minerals and Energy Security Framework
The Quad foreign ministers convened in New Delhi, producing a joint statement and Critical Minerals Initiative Framework that reframes the grouping's purpose around economic resilience, supply chain security, and technological coordination rather than conventional military deterrence.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting, New Delhi
The Foreign Ministers of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States convened in New Delhi for the Quad Foreign Ministers' Meeting, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio representing Washington.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
India Multialignment Stress Test: Simultaneous Quad, BRICS, Gulf, and European Engagements
India is simultaneously hosting BRICS foreign ministers, preparing for Quad foreign ministers, conducting a Modi five-nation tour (UAE, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Italy), and managing the diplomatic fallout of the Trump-Xi meeting and Putin's China visit.
Conflict / Asia-Pacific
Munir consolidates power after Operation Sindoor as U.S. strategic neglect and China's deepening regional reach widen pressure on India.
Simmering / Asia-Pacific
India deepens Japan and Mongolia ties and accelerates drones while China tightens its grip on Bangladesh and Myanmar.