War / Americas
Ecuador Gang Wars
Ecuador's gang war deepens as criminal fragmentation accelerates and Colombia's hard-right turn reshapes the regional corridor.
Colombia's insurgency began in 1964, when FARC and the National Liberation Army (ELN) took up arms as Marxist guerrilla movements emerging from a decade of partisan slaughter.
The 2016 Havana Accords were meant to end it. Roughly 7,000 FARC fighters demobilized, but Bogotá never delivered the promised rural development, and dissident factions, FARC-EMC and Segunda Marquetalia, took up the gun again. They now fight the ELN and the Gulf Clan over coca corridors and Pacific trafficking routes. Venezuela shelters ELN and dissident commanders across the border, while the US backs Bogotá with counter-narcotics aid.
The war Colombia thought it had ended is the war it is still fighting.
De la Espriella's June 21 victory marks the sharpest rupture in Colombian security doctrine since the 2016 peace deal, ending both the ELN and FARC-EMC negotiation tracks simultaneously and committing the state to megaprisons, aerial strikes, and mass detention.
It matters because the war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across Americas.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
De la Espriella collapses both negotiation tracks simultaneously with no sequenced off-ramp, meaning all major armed groups revert to full confrontation posture at once rather than one at a time.
The Ecuador fragmentation trajectory is the most structurally relevant analogue: leadership decapitation under Noboa more than doubled active criminal groups by early 2026, and Colombia's larger.
Fighting intensified in Caquetá, Cauca, and the Pacific coast as FARC-EMC broke off peace talks, leaving Colombia with multiple active fronts and no clear path to a comprehensive settlement.
President Gustavo Petro launched "Total Peace" negotiations with ELN and FARC dissidents simultaneously, but ceasefires repeatedly collapsed amid continued attacks and territorial disputes.
Competing armed groups—FARC-EMC, Segunda Marquetalia, ELN, and the Gulf Clan—fought violent territorial wars in rural Colombia, with massacres and forced displacement surging as ex-FARC zones became power vacuums.
Former chief FARC peace negotiator "Iván Márquez" publicly announced a return to armed struggle, formalizing the dissident faction Segunda Marquetalia alongside FARC-EMC, which rejected the 2016 accords.
The Havana Peace Accords ended FARC's 52-year insurgency; roughly 7,000 fighters demobilized, but the Colombian government failed to deliver promised rural development and reintegration programs.
President Álvaro Uribe launched an aggressive military offensive ("Democratic Security"), dismantling FARC networks and reducing fighters by more than half over the following decade.
Both FARC and ELN founded as Marxist guerrilla movements, emerging from the political violence of "La Violencia" (1948–1958) that had already killed roughly 200,000 Colombians.
FARC-EMC (Iván Mordisco faction) Cauca corridor network: controls mobility, taxation, and coca export logistics linking cultivation zones to Pacific ports.
FARC-Segunda Marquetalia maritime trafficking cells: operate go-fast boat corridors in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean, providing offshore revenue insulation.
ELN Venezuelan nationals recruitment pool: nearly half of ELN's roughly 7,000 fighters are Venezuelan nationals recruited across the border.
Venezuela-ELN cross-border sanctuary network: rear-area protection for ELN persists inside Venezuelan territory.
Gulf Clan Caribbean maritime cells: hold northern trafficking lanes and finance operations through cartel-controlled gold mines in Chocó and Antioquia.
VENEZUELA
Maduro government provides sanctuary to ELN and FARC dissidents — ELN maintains rearguard inside Venezuela.
CUBA
Historical facilitator of negotiations; some FARC-Segunda Marquetalia presence.
US
Ongoing counter-narcotics cooperation, intelligence, Plan Colombia legacy.
Jun 26, 2026
Stable
Other
La Guaira Earthquake Search-and-Rescue Strains Venezuelan State Capacity
In the hardest-hit coastal state of La Guaira, volunteer medical teams joined an under-resourced Civil Protection response after two earthquakes, finding collapsed buildings, gridlocked aid routes and few survivors.
Jun 22, 2026
Mixed
Political
De la Espriella Elected Colombian President on Far-Right Platform
Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly defeated leftist senator Iván Cepeda to win Colombia's presidency on a platform of state-shrinking, lethal security crackdowns, and withdrawal from the inter-American human rights system.
Jun 21, 2026
Mixed
Political
De la Espriella Wins Colombian Presidential Runoff
Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly won Colombia's second-round presidential election (49.7 to 48.7 percent) over leftist Iván Cepeda, after a Trump endorsement, joining a regional wave of polarized right-turning governments.
Jun 21, 2026
Escalating
Political
Abelardo de la Espriella Wins Colombian Presidential Election
Far-right populist Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly won Colombia's presidential election with about 49.6% of the vote, marking a sharp rightward turn in how the state will confront its internal armed conflict.
Jun 21, 2026
Stable
Political
De La Espriella Heads to Colombian Presidential Runoff Against Cepeda
Right-wing outsider Abelardo De La Espriella, having won the most first-round votes, faces leftist senator Ivan Cepeda in a Colombian presidential runoff, backed by a Trump endorsement and US Republican networks.
Jun 12, 2026
Escalating
Military
US-Venezuela Strike Kills Tren de Aragua Leader
A June 12 US missile strike, conducted in full collaboration with Venezuelan security forces, killed Tren de Aragua leader Nino Guerrero in the Orinoco Mining Arc, the first US missile elimination of a gang leader in Latin America.
May 10, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Venezuelan Diaspora Non-Return Following Maduro Capture
Following the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, no quantifiable spike in Venezuelan migrant returns has materialized.
May 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Colombia Presidential Election Security Deterioration Ahead of May 2026 First Round
Illegal armed groups have expanded 23.5% over the past year, surpassing 27,000 members, while a sustained wave of over 26 attacks in Cauca, Valle del Cauca, and Nariño since April 24 has killed 21 civilians and injured 56.
Apr 15, 2026
Escalating
Military
United States Expands Lethal Maritime Counter-Narcotics Strikes in Eastern Pacific
A U.S. strike destroyed a boat in the eastern Pacific, killing two people and marking the 49th attack in a broader maritime counter-narcotics campaign launched in early September.
Mar 28, 2026
Mixed
Legal
Kassis Conviction Exposes Iran-Hezbollah Weapons-for-Drugs Network
A U.S. district court in Virginia convicted Antoine Kassis on narco-terrorism conspiracy and material support for the ELN, following a two-year DEA sting operation.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Conflict-Driven Internal Displacement Reaches Record High in 2025
Conflict and violence generated 32.3 million internal displacements globally in 2025 — a 60% increase over 2024 and the first time conflict-driven displacement has exceeded disaster-driven displacement since IDMC tracking began in 2008.
Sep 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
United States Expands Militarized Counter-Narcotics Strikes in the Caribbean
The United States initiated lethal military strikes on suspected drug-trafficking vessels off Venezuela and sustained a broader coercive maritime campaign across the Caribbean.
Jul 18, 2025
Escalating
Military
JSOC Strike Kills Tren de Aragua Leader Héctor Guerrero
U.S. Joint Special Operations Command forces killed Tren de Aragua leader Héctor 'El Niño' Guerrero using a missile strike, with CIA coordination alongside Venezuelan ground forces.
Jul 16, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Restricts Petro's Visa Access to Block Mamdani Meeting
U.S. Embassy officials in Bogotá contacted Colombia's foreign ministry to warn that a planned meeting between President Petro and New York Mayor Mamdani would violate the restricted terms of Petro's limited travel allowance — granted
Jul 15, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Endorses Dual U.S.-Colombian Citizen in Colombian Presidential Runoff
U.S. President Trump publicly endorsed Abelardo De La Espriella, a right-wing Colombian presidential candidate who holds U.S., Colombian, and Italian citizenship, ahead of a runoff against left-wing rival Ivan Cepeda.
Jul 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Senate Hearing Reveals Drug-Free Targeting Criteria for US Maritime Strike Campaign
During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Senators Tim Kaine and Rand Paul disclosed that classified briefings reveal U.S. military targeting criteria for Operation Southern Spear do not require evidence of narcotics or weapons on targeted vessels.
Jul 15, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
United Airlines Resumes Houston-Caracas Direct Service
United Airlines announced resumption of daily nonstop flights between Houston and Caracas effective August 11, the first such service since 2017.
Jul 11, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
U.S. Army Special Forces Sergeant Indicted for Insider Trading on Classified Operation
A federal indictment unsealed in the Southern District of New York charges Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified intelligence about Operation Absolute Resolve — the U.S. raid to capture Venezuelan President Maduro — to wager approximately $33,000 on Polymarket's offshore platform, netting over $409,000 in profit.
Jul 1, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Cuba Oil Reserve Exhaustion Following Venezuelan Supply Cutoff
Cuba's government confirmed its oil reserves have been fully depleted, a direct consequence of the Trump administration severing Venezuelan oil shipments to Havana following the collapse of the Maduro-aligned government in Caracas.
Jun 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Military Boat Strike Campaign in Latin American Waters Fails to Reduce Cocaine Supply
The Trump administration has conducted 59 lethal boat strikes since September 2024, killing 196 people and deploying AC-130J gunships, F-35s, guided-missile destroyers, and MQ-9 Reaper drones at a cost of $4.7 billion.
Jun 3, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Military Lethal Strikes on Drug Boats in Caribbean and Eastern Pacific
The U.S. military has conducted lethal strikes on civilian boats allegedly transporting narcotics in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific since September 2025, killing more than 200 people.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Colombia Presidential Election First Round — Far-Right Surge
Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won 43.7 percent of the first-round vote in Colombia's presidential election, advancing to a June 21 runoff against left-wing Iván Cepeda (40.9 percent). U.S.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Colombia First-Round Presidential Election — De la Espriella Leads Cepeda into Runoff
Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia's first-round presidential election with 43.7 percent against far-left Iván Cepeda's 40.9 percent, triggering a June 21 runoff.
May 31, 2025
Mixed
Political
Colombia Presidential Election Amid FARC Dissident Violence Surge
Colombia heads to a presidential election on May 31 under conditions of acute security deterioration, with FARC dissident factions conducting dozens of attacks in recent weeks — the worst violence in two decades.
May 30, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Ecuador-Colombia Tariff Removal Timed to Presidential Election
Ecuadorean President Noboa announced tariff removal on Colombian goods effective June 1, framed as a bilateral agreement with Colombian opposition candidate De La Espriella — one day before Colombia's presidential election.
May 25, 2025
Mixed
Political
Colombia Presidential Election First Round
Colombia's first-round presidential election pits left-wing senator Iván Cepeda against far-right lawyer Abelardo De La Espriella, with conservative senator Paloma Valencia trailing.
May 22, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
CIA Director Ratcliffe Delivers Regime-Change Ultimatum to Havana
CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Havana to personally deliver a Trump administration ultimatum demanding 'fundamental changes' in exchange for economic and security engagement.
May 21, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
U.S. Indicts Former Cuban President Raúl Castro
The U.S. Justice Department filed criminal charges against former Cuban President Raúl Castro for murder and conspiracy to kill U.S. citizens, tied to Cuba's 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue civilian aircraft.
May 20, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Cuba-U.S. Diplomatic Standoff Amid Escalating U.S. Pressure Campaign
Cuba's UN ambassador granted a rare on-the-record interview signaling openness to broad negotiations while publicly rejecting U.S. good faith, as the Trump administration simultaneously escalated its coercive campaign through an oil blockade, criminal charges against Raúl Castro, and CIA Director Ratcliffe's direct demands in Havana.
May 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Assassination of De La Espriella Campaign Workers in Meta Province
Two campaign workers for right-wing presidential candidate Abelardo De La Espriella were shot dead by four hooded gunmen on motorcycles in rural Cubarral, Meta province.
May 15, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Venezuela Direct Commercial Flight Service Restored
American Airlines operated the first nonstop commercial flight between the United States and Venezuela in nearly seven years, inaugurating daily Miami-Caracas service with plans to expand to twice daily by May 21.
May 14, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Noboa Atlantic Council Address on Ecuador Security Cooperation
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa addressed the Atlantic Council on Ecuador's security priorities and U.S.-Ecuador cooperation against transnational criminal organizations.
May 3, 2025
De-escalating
Military
FARC Dissident Mass Bombing Campaign in Cauca, Colombia
Iván Mordisco's FARC dissident organization executed at least 26 coordinated attacks across rural Cauca department, including a bus bombing on the Pan-American highway, vehicle-borne IED strikes on military posts near Cali, a police station shooting, and drone attacks on a radar facility.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Maximum Pressure Campaign Against Cuba Escalates to Ultimatum Phase
The Trump administration escalated its coercive campaign against Cuba through a May 1 executive order authorizing secondary sanctions on foreign firms operating in Cuban strategic sectors, a CIA director visit to Havana delivering a security ultimatum, and a federal indictment of Raúl Castro.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
ELN Consolidates Parallel Governance Across Colombia-Venezuela Border
The ELN has established durable parallel governance across the Colombia-Venezuela border, controlling approximately 1,400 miles of frontier, coca production zones, illegal gold mines, and drug trafficking corridors.
Apr 28, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Russia-Nicaragua Military Cooperation Agreement Ratified
Russia's Federation Council ratified a military cooperation agreement with Nicaragua, formalizing a framework initially signed in Moscow in September 2024.
Apr 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
FARC Dissident Highway Bombing in Cauca Region
FARC dissident factions detonated explosives on a highway in Colombia's southern Cauca region, killing at least 14 and injuring dozens including minors.
Apr 27, 2025
De-escalating
Military
FARC Dissident Bombing in Cauca Region Kills 20 Civilians
FARC dissident splinter groups detonated a vehicle bomb on a highway in Colombia's Cauca region, killing 20 civilians and leaving a 200-metre crater. A secondary bus bomb was intercepted before detonation.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Post-Maduro Venezuela: U.S. Oil Deal Fails to Translate into Broad Economic Recovery
Following the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2025, the Trump administration began selling Venezuelan oil and remitting proceeds to Caracas, promising transparent reinvestment for the Venezuelan people.
Apr 17, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Guatemala-US Military Counter-Narcotics Cooperation Agreement
Guatemala's President Arévalo confirmed terms of expanded US military cooperation with Defense Secretary Hegseth, covering equipment, training, and expert access for counter-narcotics operations.
Apr 16, 2025
Mixed
Legal
Trump Administration Third-Country Deportation of Latin American Migrants to DRC
The Trump administration deported 15 Latin American migrants — from Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru — to the Democratic Republic of Congo on April 16, 2025, as part of its third-country deportation policy.
Mar 27, 2025
Mixed
Alliance
U.S. Builds Coercive Pressure Architecture Across Latin America via 'Shield of the Americas' Framework
The Trump administration is systematically constructing a coercive regional architecture in Latin America combining terrorist designations, joint military operations, and political realignment through selective multilateral forums.
Mar 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Colombia Requests U.S. Sanctions on Illicit Gold Industry Amid U.S. Mint Supply Chain Exposure
Colombia's defense minister formally requested that the U.S. Treasury Department impose financial sanctions on participants in Colombia's illegal gold industry, which finances the Clan del Golfo cartel.
Mar 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Escalates Hemispheric Anti-Cartel Campaign Under Trump
Since September 2024, the United States has conducted boat bombings in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific killing nearly 200 people, pressured Mexico into eliminating Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho, indicted the governor of Sinaloa state, and convened 12 Latin American leaders at the 'Shield of the Americas' summit.
Jan 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Catatumbo Guerrilla War Escalation and Colombia Presidential Referendum on Security
An E.L.N. offensive launched January 15, 2025 in Colombia's Catatumbo region triggered a full-scale territorial war with FARC dissident Frente 33, displacing 100,000 residents and producing over 160 homicides.
Jan 3, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US Raid Captures Nicolás Maduro in Caracas
The article frames a US raid in Caracas that reportedly captured Nicolás Maduro and left Delcy Rodríguez in charge as a political opening rather than a completed transfer of power.
Jan 3, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Capture of Maduro and Venezuelan Regime Co-optation
The United States conducted a covert military operation on January 3, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and replacing him with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, converting Venezuela from a regional adversary into what the Trump administration frames as a compliant vassal state.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
CIA Director Ratcliffe Visits Havana for Intelligence-Level Talks
CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Havana for a direct meeting with Cuba's interior minister and intelligence chief — a rare and high-signal channel activation at the intelligence-to-intelligence level.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Re-establishes Diplomatic Presence in Caracas via Marriott Hotel Headquarters
Following the U.S. forcible extraction of Venezuela's former leader in January 2025, Washington has rapidly re-established a diplomatic and intelligence footprint in Caracas, operating out of the J.W. Marriott hotel while the vacated U.S.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Trafficking of Venezuelan Migrants as Structural Security Threat in Colombia
The report analyzes how trafficking of Venezuelan migrants in Colombia functions as a revenue and control mechanism for armed and organized-crime groups, reinforcing weak governance and state fragility on both sides of the border.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Decertifies Colombia as Counternarcotics Partner
The Trump administration rescinded Colombia's status as a counternarcotics partner for the first time in nearly thirty years, citing record coca cultivation under Petro, after earlier tariff threats over deportation flights.
Date unknown
Unclear
Political
Colombia Presidential Runoff Between Cepeda and De La Espriella
Colombia holds a polarized presidential runoff that doubles as a referendum on outgoing leftist President Petro's security record and his 'Total Peace' negotiation strategy with armed groups.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
U.S. Strike in Venezuela Kills Tren de Aragua Leader
The United States bombed a site in Venezuela housing a leader of the Tren de Aragua gang, killing Hector Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, with the strike confirmed by Venezuelan officials.
Date unknown
Stable
Political
Colombia's Runoff Tests a Bukele-Style Security Platform
Ahead of Sunday's runoff, hardline lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella leads with a Bukele-inspired platform of megaprisons, an end to armed-group peace talks, and all-out war on criminal organizations, against leftist Ivan Cepeda continuing Petro's negotiated approach.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
USAID Closure Ends U.S.-Colombia Alternative-Development Counternarcotics Partnerships
The closure of USAID in 2025 terminated land-titling and rural-road programs that had moved Colombian coca farmers toward licit livelihoods, abandoning partnerships with Bogota and removing a sustainable lever against cocaine production.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Atlantic Council Recommends Restructuring US-Colombia Security Cooperation Framework
The Atlantic Council's US-Colombia Strategic Alignment Coalition convened to assess the bilateral security relationship and issued recommendations for restructuring cooperation away from a counternarcotics-only framework.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Trump Administration Proposes Zero Funding for OAS in FY2027 Budget
The Trump administration's FY2027 budget proposal eliminates the U.S. assessed contribution to the OAS, approximately $46 million of the organization's ~$91 million regular budget.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Administration Signals Possible Forceful Action Against Cuba
President Trump has publicly stated he will have the 'honor of taking Cuba,' and the administration has not ruled out military action following recent interventions in Venezuela and Iran.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Ecuador Criminal Fragmentation Surge Under Noboa Security Campaign
Ecuador's sustained military and law enforcement pressure campaign under President Noboa has triggered accelerating fragmentation of major criminal organizations, with active groups exceeding 48 by early 2026 — more than double the 2024 count.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China's Latin America Economic-to-Geopolitical Influence Gap Widens
Across multiple Latin American states — Panama, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Honduras — China's substantial economic footprint has failed to produce durable political alignment, as governments recalibrate toward Washington under domestic pressure and U.S. strategic competition.
Date unknown
Unclear
Political
Colombia Presidential Runoff — Iván Cepeda Candidacy Assessment
Iván Cepeda, left-wing senator and president of the Senate's Peace Commission, is competing in a Colombian presidential runoff following a competitive first round.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump Second-Term Latin America Policy Posture Takes Shape
The incoming Trump administration is orienting its Latin America policy around three coercive levers — tariffs, sanctions, and potential limited military action — to extract cooperation on migration, fentanyl interdiction, and Chinese infrastructure exclusion.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Cepeda Emerges as Colombian Presidential Frontrunner
Ivan Cepeda, a leftist senator and senior adviser to President Gustavo Petro, has emerged as the leading candidate in early polling for Colombia's 2026 presidential election.
War / Americas
Ecuador's gang war deepens as criminal fragmentation accelerates and Colombia's hard-right turn reshapes the regional corridor.
War / Americas
U.S. FTO designations and tariff pressure are reshaping the external coercive architecture around Brazil's transnational criminal networks.