War / Americas
Ecuador Gang Wars
A trilateral U.S.-backed strike architecture now spans Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, with a covert maritime campaign running alongside it.
Colombia
Colombia's insurgency began in 1964, when FARC and the National Liberation Army (ELN) took up arms as Marxist guerrilla movements emerging from a decade of partisan slaughter.
The 2016 Havana Accords were meant to end it. Roughly 7,000 FARC fighters demobilized, but Bogotá never delivered the promised rural development, and dissident factions, FARC-EMC and Segunda Marquetalia, took up the gun again. They now fight the ELN and the Gulf Clan over coca corridors and Pacific trafficking routes. Venezuela shelters ELN and dissident commanders across the border, while the US backs Bogotá with counter-narcotics aid.
The war Colombia thought it had ended is the war it is still fighting.
Colombia's De la Espriella government ended all armed-group negotiations in September 2026, gutted the peace implementation architecture, and cut reincorporation agency funding by 37 percent, generating the highest monthly conflict death toll since 2018.
The move collapses the sequenced off-ramp Petro used to manage FARC-EMC, ELN, and Segunda Marquetalia on separate timelines, removing any near-term political exit from a multi-front insurgency.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
De la Espriella's simultaneous collapse of all three negotiation tracks removes the sequenced off-ramp Petro used to manage FARC-EMC, ELN, and Segunda Marquetalia on separate timelines.
Venezuela's post-Maduro institutional vacuum is the most consequential structural variable: ELN rearguard and FARC dissident sanctuary inside Venezuela depended on a stable patron.
Colombia's integration into the Shield of the Americas and the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition converts the insurgency into a node in Washington's hemispheric China-displacement strategy.
Fighting intensified in Caquetá, Cauca, and the Pacific coast as FARC-EMC broke off peace talks, leaving Colombia with multiple active fronts and no clear path to a comprehensive settlement.
President Gustavo Petro launched "Total Peace" negotiations with ELN and FARC dissidents simultaneously, but ceasefires repeatedly collapsed amid continued attacks and territorial disputes.
Competing armed groups—FARC-EMC, Segunda Marquetalia, ELN, and the Gulf Clan—fought violent territorial wars in rural Colombia, with massacres and forced displacement surging as ex-FARC zones became power vacuums.
Former chief FARC peace negotiator "Iván Márquez" publicly announced a return to armed struggle, formalizing the dissident faction Segunda Marquetalia alongside FARC-EMC, which rejected the 2016 accords.
The Havana Peace Accords ended FARC's 52-year insurgency; roughly 7,000 fighters demobilized, but the Colombian government failed to deliver promised rural development and reintegration programs.
President Álvaro Uribe launched an aggressive military offensive ("Democratic Security"), dismantling FARC networks and reducing fighters by more than half over the following decade.
Both FARC and ELN founded as Marxist guerrilla movements, emerging from the political violence of "La Violencia" (1948–1958) that had already killed roughly 200,000 Colombians.
VENEZUELA
Maduro government provides sanctuary to ELN and FARC dissidents — ELN maintains rearguard inside Venezuela.
CUBA
Historical facilitator of negotiations; some FARC-Segunda Marquetalia presence.
US
Ongoing counter-narcotics cooperation, intelligence, Plan Colombia legacy.
Sep 10, 2026
Escalating
Legal
Colombia Resumes Aerial Coca Eradication After Decade-Long Halt
Colombia's National Police announced a limited aerial spraying pilot in Putumayo using glufosinate-ammonium, reversing a practice suspended in 2015 after the WHO classified glyphosate as probably carcinogenic and the courts imposed strict conditions on resumption.
Sep 10, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Peru Joins US-Organized Shield of the Americas Coalition
Peru's newly elected president confirmed accession to a US-organised hemispheric security coalition during a meeting with the US Secretary of State in Lima, the closing stop of a Colombia, Ecuador and Peru tour.
Sep 9, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
United States Designates Los Tiguerones a Foreign Terrorist Organization
Washington added Los Tiguerones to its terrorism lists during Rubio's visit to Quito, extending a designation campaign that now covers about twenty Latin American groups.
Sep 8, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Rubio Opens Andean Tour Signalling Imminent US Trade Deals
Rubio began a tour of Colombia, Peru and Ecuador saying Washington expects to conclude trade agreements with all three. The visit pairs commercial terms with security integration through the Shield of the Americas and joint operations
Sep 7, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
Colombia Ends Armed-Group Negotiations and Guts Peace Implementation Architecture
Colombia's new government shut down the remaining negotiations with criminal groups running since 2022 and moved to eliminate the peace implementation unit, the reconciliation advisory office and the high commissioner for peace along with more than 200 positions.
Sep 4, 2026
De-escalating
Military
ELN Drone and Ground Attack on Colombian Military Compound in Ocana
Explosives dropped from drones and a subsequent clash inside a military compound in Ocana, Norte de Santander, killed three Colombian soldiers and wounded four.
Sep 2, 2026
Escalating
Military
Colombian President Displays Rebel Dead in Video After Military Operation
Colombia's president posted a video of himself in military dress beside body bags said to contain rebel remains, calling the operation a lethal blow to a dissident group's territorial control.
Aug 28, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
United States and Venezuela Announce Large-Scale Oil Development Agreement
Trump announced an oil agreement with the government of acting President Delcy Rodríguez giving Washington majority control over 65 billion barrels of reserves across 17 blocks, against $100 billion in promised investment and over $200 billion in royalties and taxes across 25 years.
Aug 28, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Announces Control of 65 Billion Barrels of Venezuelan Oil Reserves
The US president announced an agreement giving Washington control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuela's proven reserves, framed as more than doubling American reserves and easing domestic fuel prices.
Aug 27, 2026
Escalating
Legal
Colombia Clears Extradition of FARC Dissident and Gulf Clan Figures to the United States
De la Espriella lifted the suspension that had shielded five armed-group members from extradition because they were participating in Petro's peace talks.
Aug 23, 2026
Escalating
Military
U.S. Strike on Suspected Narcotics Vessel in Eastern Pacific
U.S. Southern Command killed two men aboard a low-profile vessel in the eastern Pacific, resuming a strike campaign paused since June.
Aug 12, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Colombia Joins U.S.-Led Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition
Colombia's entry adds the hemisphere's largest cocaine producer and a former staple United States partner to a coalition built around military rather than law enforcement action.
Aug 10, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Colombia Declares National Emergency After Earthquake Strikes New Government
A 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck western Colombia three days after Abelardo de la Espriella took office, causing damages near $10 billion and devastating hundreds of municipalities across 15 departments.
Aug 10, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Magnitude 7.4 Earthquake Strikes Western Colombia
Colombia's strongest earthquake in a decade struck western Colombia, killing at least 181 people and collapsing 153 buildings, with Cali worst affected.
Aug 10, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Magnitude 7.4 Earthquake Strikes Chocó, Colombia
A 7.4 magnitude earthquake centered near San José del Palmar in Chocó damaged buildings across several major Colombian cities and injured residents in Quibdó.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Political
Colombia Inaugurates de la Espriella and Joins US Security Partnership
Abelardo de la Espriella took office as president of Colombia on Friday, and the United States announced a one billion dollar security package framed as support for a campaign against armed trafficking networks.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Military
Colombia's New President Ends Peace Talks for US-Backed Offensive
Colombia's incoming president took office pledging to terminate negotiations with armed drug-trafficking groups and launch a military offensive with US backing.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Political
De la Espriella Takes Office in Colombia Seeking Alignment With Washington
Colombia's new president took office committed to rebuilding trade, investment, and security ties with Washington after four years of open friction under his predecessor.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US and Colombia Fast-Track Plan Patriot 2.0 Counternarcotics Partnership
Colombia's incoming president took office with a United States military partnership already in motion, covering intelligence support for counter-narcotics missions, extradition of captured traffickers and a possible restart of aerial coca eradication.
Aug 7, 2026
Mixed
Political
Colombia Transitions to de la Espriella Security-First Government
Conservative outsider Abelardo de la Espriella is being sworn in as Colombia's president, replacing Gustavo Petro and abandoning the total peace negotiation strategy in favor of law and order, including Salvadoran-style megaprisons.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Political
Venezuela Interim Government and Opposition Formalize Democracy Negotiations
Venezuela's interim government under Delcy Rodriguez and the opposition led by Dinorah Figuera announced formal negotiations beginning August 1 to rebuild democratic institutions after Nicolas Maduro's removal in January.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Incoming De la Espriella Government Opens Economic Cooperation Track With Washington
Ahead of Abelardo de la Espriella's August 7 inauguration, vice president-elect José Manuel Restrepo and ministers-designate visited Washington in mid-July, meeting US agencies, Congress, multilaterals, and business leaders, with formal bilateral working groups on investment, trade, energy, and social development announced to begin July 28.
Jun 29, 2026
Mixed
Political
Venezuela Blocks Opposition Leader's Return
The U.S.-backed Venezuelan government blocked exiled opposition leader Maria Corina Machado from flying home from Panama to assist with earthquake relief.
Jun 28, 2026
Mixed
Political
U.S. Endorsement Aids Colombian Right-Wing Runoff Victory Over Petro Successor
Colombian voters elected far-right lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella over Petro-backed leftist Iván Cepeda, ending Colombia's first experiment with leftist rule after a Trump endorsement and prior U.S. Treasury sanctions on President Petro.
Jun 26, 2026
Stable
Other
La Guaira Earthquake Search-and-Rescue Strains Venezuelan State Capacity
In the hardest-hit coastal state of La Guaira, volunteer medical teams joined an under-resourced Civil Protection response after two earthquakes, finding collapsed buildings, gridlocked aid routes and few survivors.
Jun 24, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Venezuela Earthquake Damage Reaches One-Tenth of National Output
Twin earthquakes on June 24 struck Venezuela's north-central industrial belt, inflicting an estimated $9 billion in direct physical damage and a total economic cost of up to $12.2 billion, roughly a tenth of GDP.
Jun 24, 2026
De-escalating
Other
US-Deported Venezuelans Killed in Earthquake at SEBIN Facility
Deportees returned under the U.S. crackdown were held at a SEBIN intelligence facility in La Guaira that collapsed in the earthquakes, with many killed or missing amid minimal rescue effort and official opacity.
Jun 22, 2026
Mixed
Political
De la Espriella Elected Colombian President on Far-Right Platform
Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly defeated leftist senator Iván Cepeda to win Colombia's presidency on a platform of state-shrinking, lethal security crackdowns, and withdrawal from the inter-American human rights system.
Jun 21, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Colombia Elects Security Hardliner as Total Peace Strategy Judged a Failure
Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia's presidential runoff on 21 June 2026 on a platform of dismantling armed groups and returning territorial control to the state, carrying conflict affected regions including Catatumbo and Arauca.
Jun 21, 2026
De-escalating
Political
De La Espriella Wins Colombian Runoff and Elevates Restrepo
Abelardo De La Espriella won the June 21 runoff with 49.7 percent against a leftist opponent, a result contested by both the losing candidate and the outgoing president.
Jun 21, 2026
Mixed
Political
De la Espriella Wins Colombian Presidential Runoff
Right-wing outsider Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly won Colombia's second-round presidential election (49.7 to 48.7 percent) over leftist Iván Cepeda, after a Trump endorsement, joining a regional wave of polarized right-turning governments.
Jun 21, 2026
Escalating
Political
Abelardo de la Espriella Wins Colombian Presidential Election
Far-right populist Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly won Colombia's presidential election with about 49.6% of the vote, marking a sharp rightward turn in how the state will confront its internal armed conflict.
Jun 21, 2026
Stable
Political
De La Espriella Heads to Colombian Presidential Runoff Against Cepeda
Right-wing outsider Abelardo De La Espriella, having won the most first-round votes, faces leftist senator Ivan Cepeda in a Colombian presidential runoff, backed by a Trump endorsement and US Republican networks.
Jun 12, 2026
Escalating
Military
US-Venezuela Strike Kills Tren de Aragua Leader
A June 12 US missile strike, conducted in full collaboration with Venezuelan security forces, killed Tren de Aragua leader Nino Guerrero in the Orinoco Mining Arc, the first US missile elimination of a gang leader in Latin America.
May 10, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Venezuelan Diaspora Non-Return Following Maduro Capture
Following the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, no quantifiable spike in Venezuelan migrant returns has materialized.
May 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Colombia Presidential Election Security Deterioration Ahead of May 2026 First Round
Illegal armed groups have expanded 23.5% over the past year, surpassing 27,000 members, while a sustained wave of over 26 attacks in Cauca, Valle del Cauca, and Nariño since April 24 has killed 21 civilians and injured 56.
Apr 21, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
U.S. Southern Command Establishes First Autonomous Warfare Command
Southern Command stood up its first Autonomous Warfare Command, dedicated to fielding uncrewed and autonomous systems against cartel networks and for disaster response.
Apr 15, 2026
Escalating
Military
United States Expands Lethal Maritime Counter-Narcotics Strikes in Eastern Pacific
A U.S. strike destroyed a boat in the eastern Pacific, killing two people and marking the 49th attack in a broader maritime counter-narcotics campaign launched in early September.
Mar 28, 2026
Mixed
Legal
Kassis Conviction Exposes Iran-Hezbollah Weapons-for-Drugs Network
A U.S. district court in Virginia convicted Antoine Kassis on narco-terrorism conspiracy and material support for the ELN, following a two-year DEA sting operation.
Jan 3, 2026
Mixed
Political
Venezuela Enters Post-Maduro Transition After US Capture Operation
Venezuela's transition began when US forces captured Nicolas Maduro on January 3, 2026, removing the incumbent by external force rather than through domestic succession.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Conflict-Driven Internal Displacement Reaches Record High in 2025
Conflict and violence generated 32.3 million internal displacements globally in 2025 — a 60% increase over 2024 and the first time conflict-driven displacement has exceeded disaster-driven displacement since IDMC tracking began in 2008.
Sep 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
United States Expands Militarized Counter-Narcotics Strikes in the Caribbean
The United States initiated lethal military strikes on suspected drug-trafficking vessels off Venezuela and sustained a broader coercive maritime campaign across the Caribbean.
Jul 18, 2025
Escalating
Military
JSOC Strike Kills Tren de Aragua Leader Héctor Guerrero
U.S. Joint Special Operations Command forces killed Tren de Aragua leader Héctor 'El Niño' Guerrero using a missile strike, with CIA coordination alongside Venezuelan ground forces.
Jul 16, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Restricts Petro's Visa Access to Block Mamdani Meeting
U.S. Embassy officials in Bogotá contacted Colombia's foreign ministry to warn that a planned meeting between President Petro and New York Mayor Mamdani would violate the restricted terms of Petro's limited travel allowance — granted
Jul 15, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Endorses Dual U.S.-Colombian Citizen in Colombian Presidential Runoff
U.S. President Trump publicly endorsed Abelardo De La Espriella, a right-wing Colombian presidential candidate who holds U.S., Colombian, and Italian citizenship, ahead of a runoff against left-wing rival Ivan Cepeda.
Jul 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Senate Hearing Reveals Drug-Free Targeting Criteria for US Maritime Strike Campaign
During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Senators Tim Kaine and Rand Paul disclosed that classified briefings reveal U.S. military targeting criteria for Operation Southern Spear do not require evidence of narcotics or weapons on targeted vessels.
Jul 15, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
United Airlines Resumes Houston-Caracas Direct Service
United Airlines announced resumption of daily nonstop flights between Houston and Caracas effective August 11, the first such service since 2017.
Jul 11, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
U.S. Army Special Forces Sergeant Indicted for Insider Trading on Classified Operation
A federal indictment unsealed in the Southern District of New York charges Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke with using classified intelligence about Operation Absolute Resolve — the U.S. raid to capture Venezuelan President Maduro — to wager approximately $33,000 on Polymarket's offshore platform, netting over $409,000 in profit.
Jul 1, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Cuba Oil Reserve Exhaustion Following Venezuelan Supply Cutoff
Cuba's government confirmed its oil reserves have been fully depleted, a direct consequence of the Trump administration severing Venezuelan oil shipments to Havana following the collapse of the Maduro-aligned government in Caracas.
Jun 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Military Boat Strike Campaign in Latin American Waters Fails to Reduce Cocaine Supply
The Trump administration has conducted 59 lethal boat strikes since September 2024, killing 196 people and deploying AC-130J gunships, F-35s, guided-missile destroyers, and MQ-9 Reaper drones at a cost of $4.7 billion.
Jun 3, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Military Lethal Strikes on Drug Boats in Caribbean and Eastern Pacific
The U.S. military has conducted lethal strikes on civilian boats allegedly transporting narcotics in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific since September 2025, killing more than 200 people.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Colombia Presidential Election First Round — Far-Right Surge
Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won 43.7 percent of the first-round vote in Colombia's presidential election, advancing to a June 21 runoff against left-wing Iván Cepeda (40.9 percent). U.S.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Colombia First-Round Presidential Election — De la Espriella Leads Cepeda into Runoff
Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia's first-round presidential election with 43.7 percent against far-left Iván Cepeda's 40.9 percent, triggering a June 21 runoff.
May 31, 2025
Mixed
Political
Colombia Presidential Election Amid FARC Dissident Violence Surge
Colombia heads to a presidential election on May 31 under conditions of acute security deterioration, with FARC dissident factions conducting dozens of attacks in recent weeks — the worst violence in two decades.
May 30, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Ecuador-Colombia Tariff Removal Timed to Presidential Election
Ecuadorean President Noboa announced tariff removal on Colombian goods effective June 1, framed as a bilateral agreement with Colombian opposition candidate De La Espriella — one day before Colombia's presidential election.
May 25, 2025
Mixed
Political
Colombia Presidential Election First Round
Colombia's first-round presidential election pits left-wing senator Iván Cepeda against far-right lawyer Abelardo De La Espriella, with conservative senator Paloma Valencia trailing.
May 22, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
CIA Director Ratcliffe Delivers Regime-Change Ultimatum to Havana
CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Havana to personally deliver a Trump administration ultimatum demanding 'fundamental changes' in exchange for economic and security engagement.
May 21, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
U.S. Indicts Former Cuban President Raúl Castro
The U.S. Justice Department filed criminal charges against former Cuban President Raúl Castro for murder and conspiracy to kill U.S. citizens, tied to Cuba's 1996 shootdown of two Brothers to the Rescue civilian aircraft.
May 20, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Cuba-U.S. Diplomatic Standoff Amid Escalating U.S. Pressure Campaign
Cuba's UN ambassador granted a rare on-the-record interview signaling openness to broad negotiations while publicly rejecting U.S. good faith, as the Trump administration simultaneously escalated its coercive campaign through an oil blockade, criminal charges against Raúl Castro, and CIA Director Ratcliffe's direct demands in Havana.
May 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Assassination of De La Espriella Campaign Workers in Meta Province
Two campaign workers for right-wing presidential candidate Abelardo De La Espriella were shot dead by four hooded gunmen on motorcycles in rural Cubarral, Meta province.
May 15, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Venezuela Direct Commercial Flight Service Restored
American Airlines operated the first nonstop commercial flight between the United States and Venezuela in nearly seven years, inaugurating daily Miami-Caracas service with plans to expand to twice daily by May 21.
May 14, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Noboa Atlantic Council Address on Ecuador Security Cooperation
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa addressed the Atlantic Council on Ecuador's security priorities and U.S.-Ecuador cooperation against transnational criminal organizations.
May 3, 2025
De-escalating
Military
FARC Dissident Mass Bombing Campaign in Cauca, Colombia
Iván Mordisco's FARC dissident organization executed at least 26 coordinated attacks across rural Cauca department, including a bus bombing on the Pan-American highway, vehicle-borne IED strikes on military posts near Cali, a police station shooting, and drone attacks on a radar facility.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Maximum Pressure Campaign Against Cuba Escalates to Ultimatum Phase
The Trump administration escalated its coercive campaign against Cuba through a May 1 executive order authorizing secondary sanctions on foreign firms operating in Cuban strategic sectors, a CIA director visit to Havana delivering a security ultimatum, and a federal indictment of Raúl Castro.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
ELN Consolidates Parallel Governance Across Colombia-Venezuela Border
The ELN has established durable parallel governance across the Colombia-Venezuela border, controlling approximately 1,400 miles of frontier, coca production zones, illegal gold mines, and drug trafficking corridors.
Apr 28, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Russia-Nicaragua Military Cooperation Agreement Ratified
Russia's Federation Council ratified a military cooperation agreement with Nicaragua, formalizing a framework initially signed in Moscow in September 2024.
Apr 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
FARC Dissident Highway Bombing in Cauca Region
FARC dissident factions detonated explosives on a highway in Colombia's southern Cauca region, killing at least 14 and injuring dozens including minors.
Apr 27, 2025
De-escalating
Military
FARC Dissident Bombing in Cauca Region Kills 20 Civilians
FARC dissident splinter groups detonated a vehicle bomb on a highway in Colombia's Cauca region, killing 20 civilians and leaving a 200-metre crater. A secondary bus bomb was intercepted before detonation.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Post-Maduro Venezuela: U.S. Oil Deal Fails to Translate into Broad Economic Recovery
Following the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2025, the Trump administration began selling Venezuelan oil and remitting proceeds to Caracas, promising transparent reinvestment for the Venezuelan people.
Apr 17, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Guatemala-US Military Counter-Narcotics Cooperation Agreement
Guatemala's President Arévalo confirmed terms of expanded US military cooperation with Defense Secretary Hegseth, covering equipment, training, and expert access for counter-narcotics operations.
Apr 16, 2025
Mixed
Legal
Trump Administration Third-Country Deportation of Latin American Migrants to DRC
The Trump administration deported 15 Latin American migrants — from Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru — to the Democratic Republic of Congo on April 16, 2025, as part of its third-country deportation policy.
Mar 27, 2025
Mixed
Alliance
U.S. Builds Coercive Pressure Architecture Across Latin America via 'Shield of the Americas' Framework
The Trump administration is systematically constructing a coercive regional architecture in Latin America combining terrorist designations, joint military operations, and political realignment through selective multilateral forums.
Mar 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Colombia Requests U.S. Sanctions on Illicit Gold Industry Amid U.S. Mint Supply Chain Exposure
Colombia's defense minister formally requested that the U.S. Treasury Department impose financial sanctions on participants in Colombia's illegal gold industry, which finances the Clan del Golfo cartel.
Mar 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Escalates Hemispheric Anti-Cartel Campaign Under Trump
Since September 2024, the United States has conducted boat bombings in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific killing nearly 200 people, pressured Mexico into eliminating Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho, indicted the governor of Sinaloa state, and convened 12 Latin American leaders at the 'Shield of the Americas' summit.
Jan 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Catatumbo Guerrilla War Escalation and Colombia Presidential Referendum on Security
An E.L.N. offensive launched January 15, 2025 in Colombia's Catatumbo region triggered a full-scale territorial war with FARC dissident Frente 33, displacing 100,000 residents and producing over 160 homicides.
Jan 3, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US Raid Captures Nicolás Maduro in Caracas
The article frames a US raid in Caracas that reportedly captured Nicolás Maduro and left Delcy Rodríguez in charge as a political opening rather than a completed transfer of power.
Jan 3, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Capture of Maduro and Venezuelan Regime Co-optation
The United States conducted a covert military operation on January 3, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and replacing him with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, converting Venezuela from a regional adversary into what the Trump administration frames as a compliant vassal state.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
CIA Director Ratcliffe Visits Havana for Intelligence-Level Talks
CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Havana for a direct meeting with Cuba's interior minister and intelligence chief — a rare and high-signal channel activation at the intelligence-to-intelligence level.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Re-establishes Diplomatic Presence in Caracas via Marriott Hotel Headquarters
Following the U.S. forcible extraction of Venezuela's former leader in January 2025, Washington has rapidly re-established a diplomatic and intelligence footprint in Caracas, operating out of the J.W. Marriott hotel while the vacated U.S.
Jun 20, 2023
Mixed
Diplomatic
Canada, US, and Chile Convene Expert Talks on Electoral Disinformation
Canada's permanent mission to the Organization of American States convened an expert discussion with United States and Chilean counterparts on countering disinformation in electoral processes, pursuant to the Inter-American Action Plan on Democratic Governance.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
United States Builds Shield of the Americas Coalition to Displace Chinese Presence in Latin America
Washington has assembled a 19-country security coalition and paired it with a revived Monroe framing and a Greater North America concept extending to Greenland and Iceland.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Backed Counter-Narcotics Military Coalition Forms in Latin America
A US-backed military alliance of largely right-wing Latin American governments is taking shape to target drug traffickers.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Rubio Visit Restores US-Colombia Security and Minerals Alignment
Rubio's first stop in Barranquilla consolidated a bilateral reset under Colombia's new president, who joined the Shield of the Americas and the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition within days of taking office.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Colombia Folds Into US-Led Hemispheric Security Architecture
One month into the De La Espriella presidency, Colombia has joined the Shield of the Americas and the Americas Counter Cartel Coalition, US-led militarised structures aimed at transnational crime, while Washington has pledged $1 billion in security assistance without specifying composition or timing.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
United States Presses Colombia to Militarize Anti-Cocaine Campaign
Washington's chief diplomat is set to press Colombia's new president to eradicate hundreds of square miles of coca, deploy security forces against armed groups and dismantle their financial networks.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
U.S. Administration Escalates Rejection of International Legal Authority
The American administration has moved from non-participation in international legal institutions to open hostility, with the Secretary of State describing the International Criminal Court as waging war on the country and the president dismissing international law outright.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Nicaragua Declares End to National Elections
Nicaragua's self-styled co-president announced that elections will never again take place in the country, framing them as a vehicle for imperialism.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Panamerican Congress Convenes in Montevideo to Coordinate Regional Left
Progressive lawmakers from Canada to Chile met in Montevideo for the third annual Panamerican Congress, coordinating resistance to Washington's interventionist turn in the region.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Hemispheric Left Convenes Panamerican Congress in Montevideo
Left-wing leaders, lawmakers and strategists from across the Americas met in Montevideo to regroup after losing all seven regional presidential elections held since Trump took office.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
Brazil Downgrades Argentina Ties Amid Right-Wing Cross-Border Alignment Wave
Argentina's president campaigned openly for Brazil's opposition candidate at a Sao Paulo rally, and Brazil answered by recalling its ambassador and expelling Argentina's, the sharpest rupture between South America's two largest economies in decades.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Colombia Positions as Operational Partner in Venezuela's Post-Transition Recovery
A new Colombian administration moved within days of taking office to strike at the ELN and join the US led counter cartel coalition, aligning Bogota with Washington's Venezuela agenda.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Castro Family Insider Becomes Cuba's Negotiating Channel to Washington
Raúl G. Rodríguez Castro, an interior ministry colonel with no public office, has emerged as Havana's principal interlocutor in secret talks with the Trump administration, meeting separately with the CIA director and the secretary of state.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
United States Declares Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine at Defense Ministers Conference
At the 17th Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas in Cusco, Washington set out a hemispheric defence doctrine committing the United States to deny adversaries the ability to position forces or threatening capabilities in the Western Hemisphere.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
United States Assumes Arbiter Role in Venezuelan Transition Talks
Seven months after Maduro's capture and a January military intervention, Venezuela is governed by an interim administration under Delcy Rodríguez while Washington controls access to the oil revenue the state needs to function, having already sold more than $13 billion of it.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Colombia Prepares Presidential Transition Under Trump-Endorsed President-Elect
Abelardo De La Espriella, elected in June on a law-and-order platform and a Trump endorsement, takes office in August pledging to help Washington escalate its campaign against trafficking networks.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
CFR Issues Crisis Playbook for U.S. Responses to Insurgency-Related Conflict
The Council on Foreign Relations published a decision-support playbook codifying how U.S. policymakers should assess and respond to insurgency-related crises, from pre-crisis intelligence questions through a four-option strategic spectrum of monitor, contain, defend, and transform, backed by case studies from FARC and Boko Haram to the Islamic State, Tigray, the RSF, and M23.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Latin America Fails to Mount Joint Response to US Pressure Campaign
Two hundred years after the Congress of Panama forged a treaty of perpetual union against European reconquest, Latin America has produced no collective response to the US pressure campaign: the January 3 capture of Maduro, a tightening stranglehold on Cuba, maritime strikes criticized as illegal, and threats against Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Panama.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Boat Strike Campaign Framed as Crimes Against Humanity
The US military has conducted 66 strikes on suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, killing at least 221 people under the official Operation Southern Spear policy, with additional assets moving to the region and the counter-terrorism strategy signaling indefinite continuation.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
US Deepens Partnership with Sanctioned Cabello in Post-Maduro Venezuela
Following the January US raid that toppled Maduro and made Venezuela a de facto US protectorate, interior minister Diosdado Cabello, a US-indicted drug trafficking defendant with a $25 million bounty, has emerged as a tolerated American partner, publicly touring earthquake zones with the US embassy chief and meeting American generals.
Date unknown
Stable
Political
Peru and Colombia Elect Right-Wing Presidents on Razor-Thin Margins
Within two weeks in June 2026, Keiko Fujimori won Peru's presidency on her fourth attempt and first-time candidate Abelardo de la Espriella defeated the left's Ivan Cepeda in Colombia by 49.7 to 48.7 percent.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Cuba Suffers Nationwide Blackout as Economic Collapse Accelerates
Cuba experienced a nationwide blackout this week as fuel reserves ran out, with ECLAC projecting a 6.5 percent economic contraction for 2026 and the EIU forecasting 7.2 percent.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
United States Reasserts Coercive Primacy Across Latin America
The Trump administration has concentrated more attention and resources on Latin America than any U.S. administration in four decades, capturing Maduro in January, extracting unprecedented Mexican security cooperation through tariff and strike threats, rolling back Chinese footholds in Panama, Mexico and Chile, and backing a right-wing electoral wave now governing most of the region.
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
US Ties Venezuela Earthquake Relief to Oil-Revenue Statecraft
The United States has pledged $300 million and about 900 military personnel for Venezuela's earthquake recovery, a fraction of the roughly $8 billion in oil-export revenues it has taken out of the country since deposing Nicolás Maduro in January, and a tenth of its 2010 Haiti commitment.
Date unknown
Mixed
Institutional
Latin America's Militarized Turn Against Adapting Criminal Networks
Security has become the defining issue in Latin American politics, with Colombia's Abelardo de la Espriella elected on a hardline platform to scrap Petro's total peace plan, Ecuador's Daniel Noboa re-elected on a military crackdown, and the Trump administration launching Shield of the Americas, a coalition for a military-led approach to organized crime.
Date unknown
Mixed
Political
Abelardo De La Espriella Elected President of Colombia
Colombia elected Abelardo De La Espriella, a criminal-defense lawyer with no prior elected office, as president after a campaign of anti-establishment rhetoric, hardline security promises, and culture-war framing.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Trafficking of Venezuelan Migrants as Structural Security Threat in Colombia
The report analyzes how trafficking of Venezuelan migrants in Colombia functions as a revenue and control mechanism for armed and organized-crime groups, reinforcing weak governance and state fragility on both sides of the border.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Decertifies Colombia as Counternarcotics Partner
The Trump administration rescinded Colombia's status as a counternarcotics partner for the first time in nearly thirty years, citing record coca cultivation under Petro, after earlier tariff threats over deportation flights.
Date unknown
Unclear
Political
Colombia Presidential Runoff Between Cepeda and De La Espriella
Colombia holds a polarized presidential runoff that doubles as a referendum on outgoing leftist President Petro's security record and his 'Total Peace' negotiation strategy with armed groups.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
U.S. Strike in Venezuela Kills Tren de Aragua Leader
The United States bombed a site in Venezuela housing a leader of the Tren de Aragua gang, killing Hector Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, with the strike confirmed by Venezuelan officials.
Date unknown
Stable
Political
Colombia's Runoff Tests a Bukele-Style Security Platform
Ahead of Sunday's runoff, hardline lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella leads with a Bukele-inspired platform of megaprisons, an end to armed-group peace talks, and all-out war on criminal organizations, against leftist Ivan Cepeda continuing Petro's negotiated approach.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
USAID Closure Ends U.S.-Colombia Alternative-Development Counternarcotics Partnerships
The closure of USAID in 2025 terminated land-titling and rural-road programs that had moved Colombian coca farmers toward licit livelihoods, abandoning partnerships with Bogota and removing a sustainable lever against cocaine production.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Atlantic Council Recommends Restructuring US-Colombia Security Cooperation Framework
The Atlantic Council's US-Colombia Strategic Alignment Coalition convened to assess the bilateral security relationship and issued recommendations for restructuring cooperation away from a counternarcotics-only framework.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Trump Administration Proposes Zero Funding for OAS in FY2027 Budget
The Trump administration's FY2027 budget proposal eliminates the U.S. assessed contribution to the OAS, approximately $46 million of the organization's ~$91 million regular budget.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Administration Signals Possible Forceful Action Against Cuba
President Trump has publicly stated he will have the 'honor of taking Cuba,' and the administration has not ruled out military action following recent interventions in Venezuela and Iran.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Ecuador Criminal Fragmentation Surge Under Noboa Security Campaign
Ecuador's sustained military and law enforcement pressure campaign under President Noboa has triggered accelerating fragmentation of major criminal organizations, with active groups exceeding 48 by early 2026 — more than double the 2024 count.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China's Latin America Economic-to-Geopolitical Influence Gap Widens
Across multiple Latin American states — Panama, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Honduras — China's substantial economic footprint has failed to produce durable political alignment, as governments recalibrate toward Washington under domestic pressure and U.S. strategic competition.
Date unknown
Unclear
Political
Colombia Presidential Runoff — Iván Cepeda Candidacy Assessment
Iván Cepeda, left-wing senator and president of the Senate's Peace Commission, is competing in a Colombian presidential runoff following a competitive first round.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump Second-Term Latin America Policy Posture Takes Shape
The incoming Trump administration is orienting its Latin America policy around three coercive levers — tariffs, sanctions, and potential limited military action — to extract cooperation on migration, fentanyl interdiction, and Chinese infrastructure exclusion.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Cepeda Emerges as Colombian Presidential Frontrunner
Ivan Cepeda, a leftist senator and senior adviser to President Gustavo Petro, has emerged as the leading candidate in early polling for Colombia's 2026 presidential election.
War / Americas
A trilateral U.S.-backed strike architecture now spans Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, with a covert maritime campaign running alongside it.
War / Americas
Brazil's criminal wars persist as a mutual US-Brazil law enforcement freeze and October elections reshape the conflict's external architecture.
FARC-EMC (Iván Mordisco faction) Cauca corridor network: controls coca taxation and mobility across southwestern Colombia's most contested zones.
FARC-Segunda Marquetalia maritime trafficking cells: run go-fast boat corridors in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean.
ELN Venezuelan rearguard network: maintains logistics, rest, and command nodes inside Venezuelan territory.
ELN Venezuelan nationals recruitment pool: roughly half of ELN's estimated 7,000 fighters are Venezuelan nationals recruited across the border.
ELN drone warfare cell (Norte de Santander): demonstrated capacity to drop explosives from armed drones onto fortified military installations.