War / Africa
Somalia Al-Shabaab Insurgency
US funding exits December 31 as Turkey's F-16s and a Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan pact reshape the coalition backing Mogadishu.
Pro-Gangs
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
Pro-Government
War
Haiti
Haiti is at war with itself, and the state is losing.
After President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in July 2021, the resulting power vacuum let rival gangs G9 and Gpep merge into the Viv Ansanm coalition, which now controls roughly 85% of Port-au-Prince, including the main port and international airport. There is no foreign sponsor on the gang side. The fight is funded by kidnapping ransoms, extortion, and tolls on fuel and cargo. On the other side, a Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission of about 1,000 officers, backed by US logistics and funding, props up the Haitian National Police.
A capital city has been captured by criminal coalitions 700 miles from the United States, and the force sent to take it back is outgunned.
The Gang Suppression Force is in active deployment but has not broken Viv Ansanm's grip on the capital, with the coalition still controlling roughly 90 percent of Port-au-Prince and no senior commander confirmed killed despite approximately 1,600 deaths in first-quarter operations, about a quarter of them bystanders.
It matters because the war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across Americas.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The kill-count-to-commander ratio remains the central operational failure: roughly 1,600 dead in first-quarter operations with approximately a quarter bystanders, and no senior Viv Ansanm leader confirmed killed.
Gang dispersal into rural Kenscoff and the rice-producing Artibonite is a tactical adaptation that extends the conflict's geographic footprint and threatens food supply chains.
December 13 elections are compromised before they begin: voter registration excludes the West Department, where Port-au-Prince sits and where gang control is most complete.
PRO-GANGS
War / Africa
US funding exits December 31 as Turkey's F-16s and a Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan pact reshape the coalition backing Mogadishu.
War / Americas
De la Espriella's security-first government launches a US-backed offensive as armed groups near 27,000 fighters and the Chocó earthquake strains.
Viv Ansanm coalition: Coordinating command structure merging G9 and Gpep that directs territorial control, coercive taxation.
G9: Core gang bloc within Viv Ansanm supplying urban fighters, port control leverage, and command infrastructure in the capital.
Gpep: Rival gang network folded into Viv Ansanm that extended the coalition's reach into additional neighborhoods and broadened anti-state coordination.
Ti Bwa gang: Semi-autonomous armed group led by Christ-Roi Chéry that kidnapped senior defence official James Boyard and his family.
Gran Grif: Semi-autonomous gang operating primarily in the Artibonite that conducts mass-casualty rural attacks independently of Viv Ansanm's urban structure.