War / Africa
Somalia Al-Shabaab Insurgency
US funding withdrawal and a Houthi arms pipeline are accelerating Somalia's security collapse as al-Shabaab consolidates.
Pro-Gangs
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
Pro-Government
War
Haiti
Haiti is at war with itself, and the state is losing.
After President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in July 2021, the resulting power vacuum let rival gangs G9 and Gpep merge into the Viv Ansanm coalition, which now controls roughly 85% of Port-au-Prince, including the main port and international airport. There is no foreign sponsor on the gang side. The fight is funded by kidnapping ransoms, extortion, and tolls on fuel and cargo. On the other side, a Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission of about 1,000 officers, backed by US logistics and funding, props up the Haitian National Police.
A capital city has been captured by criminal coalitions 700 miles from the United States, and the force sent to take it back is outgunned.
The August 23 Kenscoff massacre is the sharpest territorial setback since the Gang Suppression Force deployed: gangs now hold the high ground commanding the road into Petion-Ville, the last district where embassies, functioning hotels, and government venues still operate.
The force has killed an estimated 1,300 fighters and scattered gangs into rural areas, but remains at roughly 700 of an authorized 5,500 personnel, and a September 30 Security Council renewal vote carries real veto risk from China and Russia.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The Kenscoff breach is strategically significant beyond its body count: control of that high ground gives gangs a coercive chokepoint over the road into Petion-Ville.
The September 30 renewal vote is the conflict's immediate structural chokepoint: China and Russia previously vetoed earlier resolutions.
US policy is compressing Haitian state capacity on three simultaneous axes: TPS termination is surging weekly deportation flights into Cap Haitien where arrivals must cross gang-controlled roads.
PRO-GANGS
War / Africa
US funding withdrawal and a Houthi arms pipeline are accelerating Somalia's security collapse as al-Shabaab consolidates.
War / Americas
Colombia's new government scraps all peace talks, launches its deadliest offensive since 2018, and locks into Washington's hemispheric security architecture.
Viv Ansanm coalition: Coordinating command structure merging G9 and Gpep that directs territorial control, coercive taxation.
G9: Core gang bloc within Viv Ansanm supplying urban fighters, port control leverage, and command infrastructure across the capital's central districts.
Gpep: Rival gang network folded into Viv Ansanm that extended the coalition's reach into additional neighborhoods and broadened anti-state coordination.
Ti Bwa gang: Semi-autonomous armed group led by Christ-Roi Chéry that conducts high-value kidnappings including senior defence official James Boyard.
Gran Grif: Semi-autonomous gang operating primarily in the Artibonite that conducts mass-casualty rural attacks independently of Viv Ansanm's urban structure.