War / Africa
Somalia Al-Shabaab Insurgency
Al-Shabaab's insurgency grinds on as Turkey drills offshore and Egypt locks in Red Sea position around Somalia.
Pro-Gangs
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
Pro-Government
War
Haiti is at war with itself, and the state is losing.
After President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in July 2021, the resulting power vacuum let rival gangs G9 and Gpep merge into the Viv Ansanm coalition, which now controls roughly 85% of Port-au-Prince, including the main port and international airport. There is no foreign sponsor on the gang side. The fight is funded by kidnapping ransoms, extortion, and tolls on fuel and cargo. On the other side, a Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission of about 1,000 officers, backed by US logistics and funding, props up the Haitian National Police.
A capital city has been captured by criminal coalitions 700 miles from the United States, and the force sent to take it back is outgunned.
The GSF deployment marks a genuine escalation in the Haitian state's coercive reach, but the Ti Bwa gang's kidnapping of James Boyard, the official specifically tasked with rebuilding Haiti's armed forces, is the sharpest indicator of where the conflict stands: gang networks retain sufficient reach and impunity to directly coerce the state's own security leadership.
The external architecture sustaining the GSF is simultaneously under pressure from multiple directions.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The Boyard kidnapping is a coercive signal directed at the GSF's entire state-building logic: by targeting the official specifically tasked with rebuilding Haiti's armed forces.
Kenya's lead-nation credibility faces simultaneous domestic and bilateral pressure: lethal protests over the US Ebola quarantine facility have exposed a structural dependence asymmetry with Washington that limits Ruto's.
The Supreme Court's clearance of TPS terminations for roughly 350,000 Haitians removes a critical diaspora safety valve and risks accelerating forced returns to a country where gangs control major infrastructure, ports.
Viv Ansanm coalition: Coordinating network merging G9 and Gpep that directs territorial control, coercive taxation.
G9: Core gang bloc within Viv Ansanm supplying urban fighters, port control leverage, and command infrastructure in the capital.
Gpep: Rival gang network folded into Viv Ansanm that extended the coalition's reach into additional neighborhoods and broadened anti-state coordination.
Ti Bwa gang: Semi-autonomous armed group led by Christ-Roi Chéry, responsible for the kidnapping of senior defense official James Boyard and his family.
Gran Grif: Semi-autonomous gang operating primarily in Artibonite that conducts mass-casualty rural attacks independently of Viv Ansanm's urban command.
PRO-GANGS
War / Africa
Al-Shabaab's insurgency grinds on as Turkey drills offshore and Egypt locks in Red Sea position around Somalia.
War / Americas
De la Espriella's runoff win collapses both peace tracks and launches a Bukele-style military campaign against groups controlling half.