Escalating / Eurasia / 2022–present
Russia-Ukraine War
Trump-brokered ceasefire collapsed on day two as Russia pressed Donetsk offensives and Ukraine struck deep into Russian strategic depth.
Pro-Gangs
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
Pro-Government
Haiti's electoral council formally postponed the presidential election timetable in April 2025, eliminating the political deadline that gave the Gang Suppression Force deployment its urgency and defined success metric.
The GSF has begun its initial deployment with Chadian advance forces and incoming Special Representative Jack Christofides, but the mission remains well below its 5,500-person authorization and has not yet shifted territorial control away from Viv Ansanm.
Escalation Trace
Analysis
Gran Grif's March 2025 Artibonite attacks replicate the October 2024 Pont-Sondé pattern, confirming a durable rural massacre capability that neither the HNP nor the MSS can interdict and that the GSF has not yet been.
The U.S. shift to targeting gang financial networks through bounties reflects a structural assessment that Viv Ansanm's coercive power is embedded in port taxation and kidnapping revenue rather than in removable command.
Haiti's indefinite election postponement removes the political deadline that gave the GSF deployment urgency and a defined success metric.
China, Russia, and Pakistan abstained from the GSF authorizing vote, concentrating the mission's political and financial backing in the U.S. and CARICOM sphere and limiting the multilateral legitimacy that would.
Historical Context
President Jovenel Moïse was assassinated in July, creating a power vacuum that accelerated rapid gang expansion across Port-au-Prince and surrounding regions.
Rival gang factions G9 and Gpep, previously enemies, began consolidating territorial control across Haiti's capital amid the political crisis following Moïse's killing.
Gang violence escalated sharply, with armed groups controlling an estimated 60–80% of Port-au-Prince and displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians.
In February, the Viv Ansanm coalition launched a coordinated offensive, besieging Port-au-Prince, storming two major prisons and freeing over 4,000 inmates, and seizing the international airport.
Prime Minister Ariel Henry, stranded abroad and unable to return, resigned in March under international pressure; a Transitional Presidential Council was established and Garry Conille was appointed Prime Minister.
A Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS) began deploying in June under UN authorization, with roughly 400 Kenyan police arriving to support the Haitian National Police against gang control.
Despite MSS deployment, Viv Ansanm extended its hold to approximately 85% of Port-au-Prince, with the Haitian National Police suffering sustained casualties and station attacks throughout the year.
Proxy Network
Viv Ansanm coalition: Coordinating network merging G9 and Gpep that directs territorial control, coercive taxation.
G9: Core gang bloc within Viv Ansanm supplying urban fighters, port control leverage, and command infrastructure in the capital.
Gpep: Rival gang network folded into Viv Ansanm that extended the coalition's reach into additional neighborhoods and broadened anti-state coordination.
Gran Grif: Semi-autonomous gang operating primarily in Artibonite that conducts mass-casualty rural attacks and has demonstrated a durable massacre capability.
Kenyan-led MSS: Predecessor multinational force transitioning into the GSF framework as the intervention scales toward its 5,500-person authorization.
Battle Deaths
Negotiated Agreements
Jul 3, 1993
AgreementThe Governors Island agreement
This marked a major negotiated framework rather than a decisive conflict resolution.
Third parties: UN, OAS
Theater
We're stabilizing the geo layer and will bring this view back once the theater experience is reliable again.
Focus Region
Americas
Geo-Linked Events
8
PRO-GANGS
Miami Federal Conviction in Moïse Assassination Plot
A U.S. federal jury convicted four South Florida men on five counts related to conspiring to assassinate Haitian President Jovenel Moïse and violating the U.S. Neutrality Act.
Russia's African Recruitment Pipeline Exposed via Kenyan Case Study
Russia has established a transnational recruitment pipeline drawing African nationals — particularly Kenyans — into its Ukraine war effort through deceptive labor migration schemes. Over 1,000 Kenyans have been recruited, with at least one confirmed killed in eastern Ukraine.
Haiti Delays Presidential Election Schedule
Haiti's electoral council postponed the planned presidential election timetable pending a new legal decree from the government.
U.S. Bounty Targets Financial Networks of Viv Ansanm and Gran Grif
The United States offered up to $3 million for information on the financial activities of Haiti's Viv Ansanm and Gran Grif, expanding pressure from leader-focused targeting to the gangs' revenue architecture.
Gen Z-Led Anti-Elite Protest Wave in African Multiparty States
A cross-country wave of youth-led, digitally mobilized protests is challenging entrenched political elites in African multiparty systems.
United States Backs Offensive Gang Suppression Force and Prime Minister Fils-Aime in Haiti
The United States has shifted to a more interventionist Haiti policy by funding Haitian security forces, supporting procurement for the coast guard, backing a larger offensive-minded U.N.-authorized Gang Suppression Force, and directly pressuring Haitian political actors to retain Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aime.
UN Gang Suppression Force Initial Deployment to Haiti
An advance team of Chadian forces arrived in Port-au-Prince as the first troop deployment of the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force, accompanied by incoming Special Representative Jack Christofides.
Gran Grif Gang Attacks in Artibonite Region, Haiti
The Gran Grif gang conducted coordinated attacks across the rural Jean-Denis area near Petite-Rivière de l'Artibonite, killing at least 16 confirmed and potentially up to 70 civilians, displacing 6,000 residents.
Continue With
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2026
16deaths