War / Americas
Ecuador Gang Wars
Ecuador's gang war deepens as criminal fragmentation accelerates and Colombia's hard-right turn reshapes the regional corridor.
Mexico's Drug War began in December 2006, when President Felipe Calderón sent the military against the cartels and ended a seven-decade arrangement in which the ruling PRI party had quietly tolerated trafficking in exchange for political loyalty.
The crackdown killed kingpins and shattered the big cartels into dozens of smaller, more violent successors. Two now dominate: the Sinaloa Cartel, fractured into warring Chapitos and Mayos factions, and Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG). American consumers are the market, Chinese chemical suppliers feed the fentanyl pipeline, and US Treasury sanctions and 2025 terrorist designations target the cartels from the north.
The war Calderón launched to break the cartels made them stronger.
The June 12 U.S. missile strike killing Tren de Aragua's leader inside Venezuela, conducted with Venezuelan security cooperation, is the sharpest recent phase signal for Mexico's drug war: Washington has demonstrated it will deploy kinetic force against FTO-designated criminal organizations inside sovereign territory, converting designation from a financial lever into a lethal one.
That precedent now hangs directly over Mexican cartels, all of which carry FTO status.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The Venezuela strike converts the FTO designation framework from a financial and legal instrument into a kinetic one, and every major Mexican cartel already carries that designation.
Simultaneous fragmentation of both Sinaloa and CJNG is a rare structural enforcement window, but decapitation without institutional consolidation accelerates territorial splintering into smaller.
The Rocha indictment compresses Sheinbaum's political space: tacit cartel accommodation, the default posture of Mexican administrations, now carries direct U.S. legal exposure for sitting officials.
El Mayo Zambada is arrested in the United States, deepening the Sinaloa Cartel's internal fracture between the Chapitos and Mayo factions, intensifying intra-cartel warfare alongside ongoing CJNG and Cartel del Noreste expansion.
The government's botched attempt to arrest a Chapo son in Culiacán triggers a cartel military assault on the city, forcing security forces to retreat and release him — exposing severe limits of state authority.
Sinaloa Cartel leader Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán is captured and extradited to the United States in 2017, triggering an internal power struggle between his sons (Chapitos) and co-founder Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada.
CJNG is founded by Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes ("El Mencho") as a Sinaloa Cartel offshoot, rapidly expanding using military-style tactics including armored vehicles and explosive-laden drones.
Cartel violence surges as fragmented groups compete for territory; over 6,000 drug-war deaths are recorded this year alone, marking the conflict's first major escalation beyond manageable levels.
President Felipe Calderón deploys the military against cartels, launching the modern drug war; the offensive kills and arrests top leaders but fragments large cartels into dozens of smaller, more violent successor groups.
PRI loses the presidency for the first time, ending 71 years of single-party rule and collapsing the managed accommodation structure that had kept cartel violence in check.
The ruling PRI party establishes an informal accommodation with drug traffickers, allowing cartel operations in exchange for political loyalty and controlled violence — a system that holds for seven decades.
Sinaloa Cartel Chapitos faction controls dominant Pacific maritime and fentanyl trafficking corridors and remains the primary named target of U.S. maritime.
Sinaloa Cartel Los Mayos faction operates as a rival internal power center contesting supply routes and border crossing infrastructure against the Chapitos.
CJNG successor factions are reorganizing as autonomous armed competitors following El Mencho's confirmed death, with territorial consolidation still unresolved.
Cartel del Noreste exploits northeastern corridor vacuums created by Sinaloa fragmentation and Gulf Cartel attrition.
Gulf Cartel remnants function as a fragmented territorial actor contesting northeastern smuggling routes in shifting alignment with or against CDN.
US
Primary market for drugs ($50B+/yr). US fentanyl precursor demand drives supply chain. US Treasury/OFAC sanctions. Trump FTO designations Jan 2025. US conducts naval strikes on drug boats near Latin America (2025).
CHINA
Fentanyl precursor chemical suppliers (primarily Sichuan-based companies) supply cartels. No direct state sponsorship but Chinese chemical companies are structural enablers.
Jun 24, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
US Treasury Sanctions Prince Holding Group Network
OFAC's designation of nine people and 26 entities linked to the Prince Holding Group extends a US campaign to dismantle Southeast Asian cyberfraud networks that drain billions from US citizens.
Jun 21, 2026
Escalating
Political
Abelardo de la Espriella Wins Colombian Presidential Election
Far-right populist Abelardo de la Espriella narrowly won Colombia's presidential election with about 49.6% of the vote, marking a sharp rightward turn in how the state will confront its internal armed conflict.
Jun 19, 2026
Escalating
Legal
Mexico's Legal Weaponization Against Journalists Escalates
Mexican officials are increasingly using civil, criminal, and electoral law to harass and silence journalists, with cases tripling to a record 69 in 2025 and at least eight speech-stifling laws passed.
Jun 17, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
US and Canada Deepen Border-Security Cooperation Against Shifting Crime
US Homeland Security Secretary Mullin and Canadian Public Safety Minister Anandasangaree discussed deepening cooperation along the 5,400-mile border as cartel, fentanyl, gun, and human-smuggling pressure pushed off the US southern border shifts north.
Jun 12, 2026
Escalating
Military
US-Venezuela Strike Kills Tren de Aragua Leader
A June 12 US missile strike, conducted in full collaboration with Venezuelan security forces, killed Tren de Aragua leader Nino Guerrero in the Orinoco Mining Arc, the first US missile elimination of a gang leader in Latin America.
Jun 12, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Sheinbaum Boycotts FIFA World Cup Opening Amid Domestic Political Pressure
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum declined to attend the FIFA World Cup opening match in Mexico City, breaking with the norm of host-nation leaders presiding over their country's opener.
Apr 29, 2026
Mixed
Legal
U.S. DOJ Indictment of Sinaloa Governor Rocha Moya and Mexican Officials
The U.S. Department of Justice indicted Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine other current and former Mexican officials on charges of conspiring with the Sinaloa Cartel to traffic drugs in exchange for bribes and political support.
Apr 18, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Vaccine Skepticism Enters Federal Health Policy
The key power shift is the migration of vaccine misinformation from social and partisan networks into formal U.S. public health decision-making.
Apr 3, 2026
Escalating
Other
Trump Administration Unveils FY2027 $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget Request
The Office of Management and Budget released a FY2027 request seeking $1.15 trillion in national defense discretionary funding plus $350 billion through reconciliation, producing the largest single-year U.S. defense request since World War II.
Mar 28, 2026
Mixed
Legal
Kassis Conviction Exposes Iran-Hezbollah Weapons-for-Drugs Network
A U.S. district court in Virginia convicted Antoine Kassis on narco-terrorism conspiracy and material support for the ELN, following a two-year DEA sting operation.
Mar 26, 2026
Mixed
Legal
Argentina Designates CJNG as Terrorist Organization
Argentina formally designated the Jalisco New Generation Cartel as a terrorist organization, unlocking financial sanctions and operational restrictions targeting the group's activities within Argentine territory.
Feb 12, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Trump Administration Recalibrates Immigration Crackdown After Minneapolis Backlash
After deaths linked to federal immigration operations in Minneapolis triggered political backlash, the Trump administration reduced visible militarized ICE deployments in major cities and shifted toward more targeted arrests and administrative pressure on undocumented migrants.
Feb 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Administration Policy Posture Erodes U.S. Credibility with Mexico and Canada
Polling data and elite interviews document a structural deterioration in Mexican and Canadian perceptions of the United States under the Trump administration, driven by tariff aggression, threats of unilateral military action against cartel targets in Mexico, and erratic diplomatic signaling.
Feb 1, 2026
Escalating
Military
Mexico Expands Security Deployment for 2026 World Cup After CJNG Leader Killing
Following the reported killing of CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera, retaliatory narco-blockades spread across multiple Mexican states, exposing the state's contested control over transport corridors and public order ahead of the 2026 World Cup.
Dec 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
US 2025 National Security Strategy Elevates Western Hemisphere as Top Priority
The December 2025 US NSS formally designated the Western Hemisphere as a top strategic priority, introducing the 'Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine' and an 'enlist and expand' partnership framework.
Sep 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
United States Expands Militarized Counter-Narcotics Strikes in the Caribbean
The United States initiated lethal military strikes on suspected drug-trafficking vessels off Venezuela and sustained a broader coercive maritime campaign across the Caribbean.
Jul 18, 2025
Escalating
Military
JSOC Strike Kills Tren de Aragua Leader Héctor Guerrero
U.S. Joint Special Operations Command forces killed Tren de Aragua leader Héctor 'El Niño' Guerrero using a missile strike, with CIA coordination alongside Venezuelan ground forces.
Jul 18, 2025
Mixed
Legal
U.S. Indictment of Sinaloa Governor Rocha Triggers Political Leave
Manhattan prosecutors unsealed an indictment against Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine other current and former Mexican officials, accusing them of a yearslong conspiracy to protect the Sinaloa Cartel.
Jul 16, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Restricts Petro's Visa Access to Block Mamdani Meeting
U.S. Embassy officials in Bogotá contacted Colombia's foreign ministry to warn that a planned meeting between President Petro and New York Mayor Mamdani would violate the restricted terms of Petro's limited travel allowance — granted
Jul 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Senate Hearing Reveals Drug-Free Targeting Criteria for US Maritime Strike Campaign
During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Senators Tim Kaine and Rand Paul disclosed that classified briefings reveal U.S. military targeting criteria for Operation Southern Spear do not require evidence of narcotics or weapons on targeted vessels.
Jul 15, 2025
Escalating
Military
US SOUTHCOM Eastern Pacific Vessel Strike
US Southern Command struck a vessel in the eastern Pacific, killing three individuals designated as 'narco-terrorists' without public evidence.
Jul 9, 2025
Mixed
Legal
U.S. Indictment of Sinaloa Governor Rocha Moya for Cartel Collusion
U.S. prosecutors unsealed a federal indictment charging Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine other current and former state officials with sustained collusion with the Sinaloa Cartel, including bribe-taking and vote delivery in exchange for impunity.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
USTR Section 301 Forced Labor Findings Against 60 Nations
The U.S. Trade Representative concluded Section 301 investigations against 60 nations, finding all had failed to prohibit imports of goods produced with forced labor, and threatened tariffs of 10–12.5 percent.
Jun 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Military Boat Strike Campaign in Latin American Waters Fails to Reduce Cocaine Supply
The Trump administration has conducted 59 lethal boat strikes since September 2024, killing 196 people and deploying AC-130J gunships, F-35s, guided-missile destroyers, and MQ-9 Reaper drones at a cost of $4.7 billion.
Jun 6, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Yields No Substantive Agreements
President Trump concluded a two-day summit in Beijing with President Xi Jinping without securing concrete agreements on any major bilateral friction point — trade, Taiwan, nuclear proliferation, AI, or the Middle East.
Jun 5, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Argentina Supreme Court Clears Extradition of Alleged South American Arms Dealer to Brazil
Argentina's Supreme Court confirmed a lower-court ruling on June 5, clearing the extradition of Diego Hernán Dirisio and his wife Julieta Nardi Aranda to Brazil, where they face charges of international arms trafficking, leading a transnational criminal organization, and money laundering.
Jun 5, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Terrorist Designation of PCC and Comando Vermelho Takes Effect
The U.S. State Department's designation of Brazil's two largest criminal organizations — PCC and Comando Vermelho — as foreign terrorist organizations took effect on June 5
Jun 3, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Military Lethal Strikes on Drug Boats in Caribbean and Eastern Pacific
The U.S. military has conducted lethal strikes on civilian boats allegedly transporting narcotics in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific since September 2025, killing more than 200 people.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Colombia First-Round Presidential Election — De la Espriella Leads Cepeda into Runoff
Far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia's first-round presidential election with 43.7 percent against far-left Iván Cepeda's 40.9 percent, triggering a June 21 runoff.
May 23, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
EU-Mexico Expanded Free Trade Agreement Signed
The EU and Mexico signed an updated free trade agreement at the first EU-Mexico summit in over a decade, expanding the original industrial-goods-only pact to include services, agricultural produce, cross-border investment facilitation, and access for European firms to Mexican government procurement.
May 21, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
House Testimony on BSA Modernization and AML/CFT Architecture Degradation
Senior Fellow Carole House testified before the House Financial Services Subcommittee on National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions, arguing that the US financial integrity architecture is being systematically weakened through the effective suspension of Corporate Transparency Act beneficial ownership reporting, stalled rules on investment advisers and real estate, and declining enforcement intensity.
May 14, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Noboa Atlantic Council Address on Ecuador Security Cooperation
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa addressed the Atlantic Council on Ecuador's security priorities and U.S.-Ecuador cooperation against transnational criminal organizations.
May 14, 2025
Unclear
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit — Cybercrime Cooperation Agenda Push
President Trump is scheduled to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, with analysts and policymakers urging cybercrime cooperation to be elevated as a core bilateral agenda item.
May 12, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Pledges to Raise Jimmy Lai Case at Xi Summit
President Trump stated he would raise the case of imprisoned Hong Kong publisher Jimmy Lai during his summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, while simultaneously hedging on prospects for success and comparing Lai to a domestic political adversary.
May 12, 2025
Escalating
Legal
EU Critical Medicines Act Council-Parliament Agreement
The EU Council and European Parliament reached agreement on a revised Critical Medicines Act on May 12, 2025, following its overwhelming passage by the European Parliament in January.
May 12, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Mexico Rejects Alleged CIA Covert Operation on Mexican Soil
Mexican Security Minister Omar Garcia Harfuch publicly rejected CNN reporting that the CIA conducted a covert lethal operation resulting in the killing of a cartel member near Mexico City.
May 8, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Military Narco-Trafficking Strike Campaign Surpasses 200 Killed
The U.S. Southern Command has conducted more than 60 lethal strikes against suspected drug-trafficking vessels in the eastern Pacific, killing at least 202 people. The campaign, authorized by SOUTHCOM commander Gen.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Sheinbaum Presidency Enters Structural Crisis Under Converging Pressures
Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum faces converging structural pressures: U.S. indictments of Sinaloa state officials for cartel collaboration, sustained Washington coercion via visa cancellations and USMCA ratification threats, a contracting economy (GDP -0.8% Q1), and rising public debt prompting a negative S&P outlook.
Apr 30, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Pressure on Mexico Escalates Ahead of USMCA Review
The U.S. Justice Department indicted a sitting Morena-affiliated Mexican governor on drug trafficking charges
Apr 30, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
U.S. Indictment of Sinaloa Governor Rocha Moya on Drug Trafficking Charges
The U.S. Justice Department unsealed an indictment against Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya, a member of President Sheinbaum's Morena party, accusing him of aiding a drug-trafficking scheme.
Apr 28, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Mexico Investigates U.S. Officials' Unauthorized Presence in Chihuahua Drug Operation
Two U.S. Embassy officials and two Mexican state agents were killed in a vehicle crash in Chihuahua state following a joint inspection of clandestine methamphetamine laboratories in the Sierra Madre Occidental.
Apr 23, 2025
Mixed
Military
US Military Lethal Maritime Strike Under Operation Southern Spear
US Southern Command conducted a lethal strike on a vessel in the eastern Pacific, killing two individuals it designated as narco-terrorists, the second such strike in 48 hours.
Apr 23, 2025
Escalating
Legal
U.S. Coordinated Action Against Southeast Asian Scam Centers and Trafficking Networks
U.S. authorities — DOJ, OFAC, and State Department — announced coordinated sanctions, seizures, and enforcement actions targeting Southeast Asian fraud compounds and associated cryptocurrency networks, including seizure of a Telegram channel used for trafficking recruitment.
Apr 22, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
US Escalates Coercive Pressure on Mexico Over Cartel-Government Collusion
The US DEA director testified before the Senate that Mexican government officials have conspired with narco-traffickers, framing the indictment of Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya as the opening of a broader accountability campaign.
Apr 22, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
U.S. Conditions USMCA Review on Mexico Security Alignment
The bilateral U.S.-Mexico agenda is being restructured so that trade access under the USMCA is increasingly conditioned on Mexico's security performance, especially against cartels.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Other
US House Select Committee Releases 'China's Minerals Mafia' Report
The US House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party published a report documenting China's systematic acquisition of critical minerals supply chains across Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Chihuahua Counter-Narcotics Investigators Killed in Sierra Madre Crash
Four government investigators, including two U.S. Embassy training officers and two Chihuahua state investigators
Apr 19, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
CIA Officers Killed in Chihuahua Counter-Cartel Operation, Triggering Bilateral Crisis
Two CIA officers and two Mexican officials died when their vehicle crashed on a remote mountain road in Chihuahua, Mexico, during a return from a joint operation to dismantle methamphetamine laboratories.
Apr 18, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
EU-U.S. Critical Minerals Partnership MOU Signed
The EU and U.S. formalized a critical minerals partnership via MOU, covering the full supply chain from exploration to recycling.
Apr 17, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Guatemala-US Military Counter-Narcotics Cooperation Agreement
Guatemala's President Arévalo confirmed terms of expanded US military cooperation with Defense Secretary Hegseth, covering equipment, training, and expert access for counter-narcotics operations.
Apr 16, 2025
Mixed
Legal
Trump Administration Third-Country Deportation of Latin American Migrants to DRC
The Trump administration deported 15 Latin American migrants — from Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru — to the Democratic Republic of Congo on April 16, 2025, as part of its third-country deportation policy.
Apr 13, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
CIA Officials Die in Chihuahua Crash Following Meth Lab Dismantlement Operation
Two U.S. officials, reportedly CIA personnel, died alongside two Mexican security officials — including the head of the Chihuahua state investigative agency — when their vehicle plunged off a mountain road following a raid that destroyed six methamphetamine labs.
Apr 2, 2025
Mixed
Sanctions
US Tariff Regime Reshapes Western Hemisphere Trade and Political Leverage
The Trump administration's Liberation Day tariff regime imposed differentiated tariff structures across Latin America, ranging from 10-percent baseline rates to 50-percent on Brazil, with country-specific rates calibrated to political relationships rather than trade deficits alone.
Mar 27, 2025
Mixed
Alliance
U.S. Builds Coercive Pressure Architecture Across Latin America via 'Shield of the Americas' Framework
The Trump administration is systematically constructing a coercive regional architecture in Latin America combining terrorist designations, joint military operations, and political realignment through selective multilateral forums.
Mar 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Colombia Requests U.S. Sanctions on Illicit Gold Industry Amid U.S. Mint Supply Chain Exposure
Colombia's defense minister formally requested that the U.S. Treasury Department impose financial sanctions on participants in Colombia's illegal gold industry, which finances the Clan del Golfo cartel.
Mar 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Escalates Hemispheric Anti-Cartel Campaign Under Trump
Since September 2024, the United States has conducted boat bombings in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific killing nearly 200 people, pressured Mexico into eliminating Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader El Mencho, indicted the governor of Sinaloa state, and convened 12 Latin American leaders at the 'Shield of the Americas' summit.
Feb 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
U.S.-Ecuador Joint Military Narcotics Operations Launch
U.S. armed forces launched joint operations with the Ecuadorian military approximately three months after Ecuadorian voters rejected U.S. military basing in a November 2024 referendum.
Jan 3, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Capture of Maduro and Venezuelan Regime Co-optation
The United States conducted a covert military operation on January 3, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and replacing him with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, converting Venezuela from a regional adversary into what the Trump administration frames as a compliant vassal state.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Cuban Migration Redirects to Latin America Under U.S. Maximum Pressure
Since January 2025, the Trump administration's maximum pressure campaign against Cuba — including travel restrictions, visa freezes, termination of humanitarian parole, and an oil embargo — has reduced irregular Cuban border encounters with the U.S. by 99 percent while redirecting Cuban emigration to Brazil, Mexico, and Uruguay.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Arrest of Former Sinaloa Security Chief Gerardo Mérida in Arizona
Retired Mexican army general Gerardo Mérida, former Sinaloa state security chief, was arrested in Arizona on U.S. charges of accepting bribes from cartel leadership.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Chapitos Faction Loses Ground in Sinaloa Cartel Internal War
The Chapitos — sons of Joaquín 'El Chapo' Guzmán and heirs to the dominant faction of the Sinaloa Cartel — are suffering sustained territorial and organizational losses in an intra-cartel conflict.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
U.S. Indictment of Sinaloa Governor and Mexican Officials for Cartel Protection
U.S. federal prosecutors indicted Sinaloa Governor Rubén Rocha Moya and nine other current and former Mexican officials for allegedly operating within a structured bribery and protection network serving the Sinaloa Cartel.
Jun 1, 2023
Mixed
Diplomatic
China Tightens Fentanyl Precursor Controls Amid U.S.-China Diplomatic Recovery
Beginning in mid-2023, Chinese authorities significantly escalated enforcement against fentanyl precursor chemical manufacturers, investigating 274 cases and seizing approximately 1,000 tons of precursors — a 42% increase from 2022.
Jan 1, 2023
De-escalating
Legal
Guadalupe Fernández Valencia Cooperates with U.S. Prosecution Against Sinaloa Network
Fernández Valencia's prosecution culminated in a guilty plea, sentencing, and early release after substantial cooperation with U.S. authorities.
Feb 1, 2016
De-escalating
Military
Arrest of Guadalupe Fernández Valencia in Culiacán
Mexican authorities arrested Guadalupe Fernández Valencia, a senior Sinaloa Cartel financial operator tied to Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar and the cartel's cross-border narcotics and money flows.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Cartel Capture of Community Life in Guanajuato
Cartels in Guanajuato are extending control over amateur soccer leagues and community institutions through assassinations, extortion and money laundering, with up to 20 groups operating in the state.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Canada Border Security Ministerial Dialogue at CSIS
U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Mullin and Canadian Public Safety Minister Anandasangaree held a high-level public dialogue on border security cooperation
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
US Defense Industrial Base Wartime Footing Progress Assessment
The US Pentagon, having declared a wartime industrial footing goal in November 2025, has made measurable progress in attracting new and nontraditional defense firms, building munitions magazine depth through a high-low mix strategy, investing in rare earth mine-to-magnet supply chains outside Chinese control, and driving foreign military sales.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
China Drafts Bill Empowering Prosecutors to Sue Foreign Entities Over Sanctions
China is preparing a new law that would let state prosecutors bring civil actions against foreign entities accused of harming Chinese interests, formalizing a domestic legal channel to retaliate against external sanctions and economic coercion.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Latin American Pivot Toward Trump-Aligned Populism
Across the Andes and Central America, new leaders are taking power on populist mandates centered on free-market policy and iron-fisted security, marking a regional realignment toward Washington.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
USAID Closure Ends U.S.-Colombia Alternative-Development Counternarcotics Partnerships
The closure of USAID in 2025 terminated land-titling and rural-road programs that had moved Colombian coca farmers toward licit livelihoods, abandoning partnerships with Bogota and removing a sustainable lever against cocaine production.
Date unknown
Escalating
Cyber
CCP Exploitation of Hongmen-Linked Criminal Networks for Okinawa Influence Operations
Beijing has reportedly intensified use of Taiwan-rooted organized crime networks — principally the Bamboo Union and Hongmen-linked structures — to conduct influence operations in Okinawa, including support for Ryukyu independence narratives and cultivation of local criminal groups such as the Kyokuryu-kai.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Ecuador Criminal Fragmentation Surge Under Noboa Security Campaign
Ecuador's sustained military and law enforcement pressure campaign under President Noboa has triggered accelerating fragmentation of major criminal organizations, with active groups exceeding 48 by early 2026 — more than double the 2024 count.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
FDA Schedules July Review of Seven Banned Peptide Compounds
The FDA is scheduled to convene in July 2025 to consider easing compounding restrictions on seven previously banned peptide compounds, following advocacy from HHS Secretary RFK Jr. and the MAHA movement.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
China's Structural Embeddedness in Latin American Strategic Sectors
Over two decades, China has embedded itself into Latin America's ports, telecommunications networks, energy systems, critical mineral supply chains, and digital infrastructure — creating durable structural leverage that does not depend on military presence.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Legal
U.S. Indictment of Sitting Mexican Governor Rubén Rocha
The United States indicted Rubén Rocha, the sitting governor of Sinaloa and a member of Mexico's ruling Morena party, on charges linked to cartel activity.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China's Latin America Economic-to-Geopolitical Influence Gap Widens
Across multiple Latin American states — Panama, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Honduras — China's substantial economic footprint has failed to produce durable political alignment, as governments recalibrate toward Washington under domestic pressure and U.S. strategic competition.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump Second-Term Latin America Policy Posture Takes Shape
The incoming Trump administration is orienting its Latin America policy around three coercive levers — tariffs, sanctions, and potential limited military action — to extract cooperation on migration, fentanyl interdiction, and Chinese infrastructure exclusion.
Date unknown
Mixed
Political
U.S. Midterm Elections Forecast: Latin America Policy Implications
The November 2025 U.S. midterm elections present the most likely near-term structural check on the Trump administration's Latin America agenda, which has been defined by military boat strikes, mass deportations, tariffs, and Monroe Doctrine reassertion.
War / Americas
Ecuador's gang war deepens as criminal fragmentation accelerates and Colombia's hard-right turn reshapes the regional corridor.
War / Americas
De la Espriella's runoff win collapses both peace tracks and launches a Bukele-style military campaign against groups controlling half.