War / Asia-Pacific
Afghanistan Taliban Rule and ISKP
Pakistan strikes Afghan provinces as Taliban patron gains harden across Russia, Central Asia, and EU tracks.
Pakistan has fought two parallel insurgencies since 2007: the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the northwest, which wants to overthrow the state and impose its own rule, and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) in the southwest, which wants to break Balochistan off entirely.
The TTP formed in 2007 as an umbrella of militant factions; the Baloch separatist fight is older, reignited in 2004 over a province annexed by force in 1947 and stripped of its gas and mineral wealth ever since. The Afghan Taliban's 2021 return to Kabul gave the TTP sanctuary across the border and the insurgency has surged ever since. China backs Islamabad and pours billions into Balochistan, which is why BLA fighters keep killing Chinese workers.
Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state losing ground inside its own borders.
Pakistan struck eastern Afghan provinces on June 28 in direct retaliation for a TTP splinter's assault on the Sindh Rangers headquarters in Karachi the day before, killing dozens and drawing Taliban condemnation.
The exchange marks the sharpest Pakistan-Afghanistan escalation cycle since the October ceasefire collapsed, with TTP demonstrating urban reach into Sindh and Pakistan demonstrating coercive cross-border reach that Kabul can now absorb with Russian backing.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Pakistan's June 28 cross-border strikes into three Afghan provinces represent a direct coercive signal.
The Karachi Rangers headquarters attack is a strategic threshold: if TTP-aligned cells can sustain urban operations in Sindh.
Pakistan's activation of Iran and Central Asian transit corridors formally dismantles Afghanistan's geographic transit monopoly, removing one of Kabul's primary coercive levers over Islamabad.
BLA fighters seized a passenger train in Balochistan, taking 400+ hostages and killing 50+, marking the most audacious attack in the province's history and demonstrating simultaneous peak pressure from both insurgencies.
Cross-border TTP strikes and a Pakistani military airstrike into Afghanistan brought the two countries to the brink of open conflict, signaling the insurgency had acquired a serious regional dimension.
The Afghan Taliban's takeover of Kabul emboldened TTP, which ended its ceasefire with Pakistan; attacks surged to their highest levels since 2014, with ISKP also escalating bombings independently.
TTP gunmen massacred 132 children and 9 staff at the Army Public School in Peshawar; Pakistan responded with Operation Zarb-e-Azb, pushing TTP leadership into Afghan sanctuary and suppressing attacks significantly.
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan formed as a unified umbrella of militant factions, immediately launching coordinated attacks on the Pakistani state and security forces across the northwest.
A low-level Baloch insurgency reignited under Nawab Akbar Bugti, escalating after his killing by security forces in 2006 and giving rise to armed groups including the BLA.
Pakistan's creation left Balochistan incorporated by force, seeding a separatist grievance; the province holds 44% of Pakistan's territory and vast gas and mineral wealth but remains politically and economically marginalized.
Afghan Taliban Sanctuary: Taliban-held territory in Kunar, Khost, and Paktika provides the permissive rear area TTP uses to regroup, train.
TTP Cross-Border Cells: TTP units and splinter factions operating from eastern Afghan provinces drive primary insurgent pressure on KPK and executed the June.
Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Alliance: The April 2025 merger of Hafiz Gul Bahadur Group and Lashkar-e-Islam concentrates previously fragmented KPK militant networks.
BLA Majeed Brigade: The BLA's dedicated suicide-attack arm, responsible for the Quetta train bombing and high-profile strikes on Chinese-linked infrastructure.
BLA Urban Strike Network: Dedicated BLA cells conducting vehicle-borne IED and suicide attacks against military-linked infrastructure and Chinese-associated.
Jun 28, 2026
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Cross-Border Strikes into Afghanistan
Pakistan struck Paktia, Paktika and Kunar provinces in Afghanistan, killing dozens, in retaliation for a paramilitary base attack in Karachi claimed by a TTP splinter.
Jun 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Militant Assault on Sindh Rangers Headquarters in Karachi
Militants attacked the Sindh Rangers paramilitary headquarters in Karachi with a blast and sustained gunfire, killing three rangers and three attackers.
Jun 26, 2026
Stable
Legal
Pakistan Passes Growth-Centric FY2026-27 Budget
Pakistan's parliament passed a roughly $67 billion FY2026-27 budget pivoting toward export-led growth via Super Tax cuts, FBR digitization, and incentives for IT, remittances, and CPEC 2.0 joint ventures.
Jun 21, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Kazakhstan Advances Trans-Afghan Transit Corridor Talks in Kabul
Kazakhstan's deputy prime minister met Taliban leadership in Kabul to advance rail corridors linking Central Asia to Iranian and Pakistani seaports through Afghanistan.
Jun 19, 2026
Escalating
Political
Munir Consolidation Pushes PTI Toward Charter-of-Democracy Compromise
Field Marshal Asim Munir's ascendancy has hardened a permanent hybrid regime in which the army dictates outcomes and civilian parties compete for shrinking space.
Jun 17, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
Taliban Bans Smartphones for Civil Servants and Military
Afghanistan's Supreme Leader ordered all civil servants, teachers, and security forces to stop bringing smartphones to work as of Wednesday, with violators' phones to be smashed and punishment imposed.
Jun 15, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
EU-Central Asia Special Representatives Meet on Afghanistan in Almaty
The eighth meeting of EU and Central Asian special representatives for Afghanistan in Almaty consolidated a shift in which Brussels funds engagement while Central Asia, led by Kazakhstan, delivers it operationally.
Jun 9, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Pakistan Crackdown on Kashmir Protests Over Reserved Seats
Islamabad's security forces violently suppressed protests in Pakistan-administered Kashmir demanding governance reform and abolition of 12 reserved legislative seats, killing at least 15 people amid mass arrests and communications blackouts.
May 27, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Russia-Afghanistan Military-Technical Cooperation Agreement
Russia and the Taliban-led Afghan government signed a military-technical cooperation agreement centered on repairing Soviet-era equipment and deepening intelligence and counter-terror coordination, less than a year after Moscow formally recognized the regime.
May 24, 2026
De-escalating
Military
BLA Suicide Bombing of Quetta Passenger Train
A BLA suicide bomber drove a vehicle-borne IED into a passenger train in Quetta, killing at least 30 people — predominantly security personnel and their families — and injuring over 50.
May 13, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Seeks to Link Gwadar Port to Russia-Backed INSTC
Pakistan publicly proposed linking the China-operated Gwadar port to the Russia-backed INSTC at a Russia-Pakistan conference in Kazan, and Russia confirmed active talks including possible railway links.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Russia-Taliban Military-Technical Cooperation Agreement
Russia and Afghanistan's Taliban government concluded a military-technical cooperation agreement in late May 2026, formalized during Taliban Defense Minister Mullah Yaqoob's visit to Moscow.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
EU Accelerates Afghan Migrant Return Policy Review, Taliban Delegation Invited to Brussels
The European Union accelerated its review of Afghan migration policy in May 2026, with a primary focus on returning Afghan migrants to Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Political
India 2026 State Assembly Elections — BJP Expands Dominance
BJP won West Bengal and retained Assam, expanding the BJP-led NDA's control to 20 of 28 Indian states. The TMC's defeat eliminates a major secular-federalist counterweight
Apr 22, 2026
Escalating
Legal
Japan Eases Lethal Weapons Export Restrictions
Japan approved a cabinet-level policy change allowing domestic defense firms to sell lethal weapons systems directly to 17 countries, marking a further rollback of postwar pacifist constraints.
Apr 18, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Minority Armed Factions Hesitate to Exploit U.S.-Israel Pressure
The article describes how U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran have opened a potential window for minority armed factions, especially Kurdish, Baloch, Ahwazi Arab, and MEK networks, to challenge Tehran.
Apr 15, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Saudi Arabia Withdraws Financing for Pakistan-Sudan Arms Deal
Saudi Arabia withdrew financing for a proposed $1.5 billion Pakistan-Sudan arms deal and urged Islamabad to terminate it, collapsing Pakistan's intended gateway into African security markets.
Apr 14, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Gunmen Attack Polio Vaccination Escort in Hangu, KPK
Armed gunmen attacked a police convoy escorting polio vaccinators in Hangu district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killing one officer and wounding four.
Apr 7, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistani Opposition Presses Government for Crisis Briefing and De-escalation Posture
Pakistani opposition leaders from PTI and JUI-F publicly demanded institutional consultation on the regional crisis, including a multi-party conference and an in-camera parliamentary briefing.
Apr 5, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
First Afghanistan-Central Asia Consultative Dialogue Institutionalizes Regional Engagement
The first Afghanistan-Central Asia Consultative Dialogue in Kabul, alongside the Termez Dialogue and expanding rail, trade, and pipeline projects, marks the institutionalization of Taliban-ruled Afghanistan's integration into the Central Asian regional order.
Apr 5, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Seeks Multi-Front Strategic Balancing Amid India, Afghanistan, and Iran-US Pressures
Pakistan is portrayed as attempting to manage concurrent pressures from India, Afghanistan, and the Iran-US conflict through diplomacy with China, Gulf states, Tehran, and Washington.
Apr 2, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
China-Facilitated Pakistan-Afghanistan Talks in Urumqi
China facilitated exploratory diplomatic talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Urumqi — the first major bilateral engagement since Pakistan launched Operation Ghazab lil-Haq in late February 2026.
Apr 2, 2026
Escalating
Military
India Issues Standing Deterrent Warning to Pakistan Post-Operation Sindoor
Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh publicly declared that Operation Sindoor remains an active posture and warned Pakistan of 'unprecedented' military consequences for any future provocation.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Activates Afghanistan-Bypassing Central Asian Trade Corridors
In April 2026, Pakistan launched the first TIR-regime export consignment from Karachi to Kyrgyzstan via the Sost Dry Port and operationalized the Pakistan-Iran Transit Corridor, routing Central Asian trade through Iran and China rather than Afghanistan.
Apr 1, 2026
Mixed
Cyber
India Bans Non-Certified Chinese Surveillance Hardware After ISI Espionage Case
After the Ghaziabad case exposed a Pakistani ISI network streaming footage of Indian defense sites via Chinese CCTV cameras to servers in China, New Delhi ordered a nationwide audit and banned non-certified internet-connected cameras from April 2026.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
EU-Indo-Pacific Hedging Alliance Consolidates Through SDPs and Geoeconomic Pacts
The EU has expanded a network of Security and Defense Partnerships with Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia while linking these frameworks to defense procurement access under SAFE and parallel trade agreements with India, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Military Kills Eight TTP Militants in North Waziristan Border Operation
Pakistani security forces killed eight TTP-affiliated militants near the Afghanistan border in North Waziristan on April 1, 2026, recovering weapons and ammunition.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Iranian Rial Surges Fourfold Against Pakistani Rupee Amid Gulf War
The Iranian rial has appreciated nearly 300% against the Pakistani rupee since the onset of a Gulf war, reversing prior currency collapse induced by US sanctions imposed in early 2026.
Mar 29, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Hosts Multilateral Diplomatic Summit on Iran War
Pakistan is convening a two-day diplomatic summit in Islamabad with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt to address the Iran war.
Mar 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Pakistan Moves to Contain Shiite Unrest Amid U.S.-Iran Mediation
Pakistan's army chief convened leading Shiite clerics and warned against violence after unrest triggered by the killing of Iran's supreme leader.
Mar 16, 2026
Mixed
Military
Pakistan Aerial Strikes on Kabul and Afghan Territory Targeting TTP
Pakistan conducted aerial strikes on the Omid Rehabilitation Center in Kabul on March 16, 2026, killing at least 143 people, following earlier strikes on Kabul's outskirts in October 2025.
Mar 13, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Issues 15th Five-Year Plan Defense Outline for PLA Modernization
China's 15th Five-Year Plan outline elevates military governance, doctrinal modernization, and military-civil fusion as core defense priorities through 2030.
Mar 1, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Establishes Cenling County on Xinjiang-Afghanistan Border
China carved out Cenling County from Taxkorgan Tajik Autonomous County in Xinjiang in March 2026, placing new administrative governance directly along the Wakhan Corridor border with Afghanistan.
Feb 28, 2026
Mixed
Military
US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Triggers Pakistan Mediation Effort
A US-Israel military campaign beginning February 28, 2026, opened with decapitation strikes and attacks on Iranian military and nuclear sites, killing the Supreme Leader and dozens of senior commanders.
Feb 26, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Pakistan Launches Operation Ghazab lil-Haq Against Taliban
Pakistan initiated large-scale airstrikes against Taliban-held targets in Afghanistan, including Kabul, signaling a shift from border management to direct coercion of the regime.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
India's Structural Positioning Within a Fracturing Liberal International Order
India has consolidated a durable posture of selective LIO engagement across four security domains — alliances, security communities, crisis management, and nuclear governance — deepening bilateral defense cooperation with the United States while refusing binding alliance commitments.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Emerges as West Asian Security Stabilizer and U.S.-Iran Mediator
Following its May 2025 military conflict with India, Pakistan signed a NATO-like mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia and joined the Trump administration's Gaza Peace Board in January 2026.
Jan 1, 2026
Stable
Other
Carnegie India Discussion on Female Militancy in South Asia
Carnegie India hosted a discussion on Ayesha Ray's book examining women's participation in militant movements across India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh.
Jul 18, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Trilateral Feasibility Study Launched for Trans-Afghan Termez-Kharlachi Railway
In accordance with a trilateral agreement signed in July 2025, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are preparing a feasibility study for the Termez-Naibabad-Maidanshahr-Logar-Kharlachi railway — the core segment of the Kabul Corridor.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Pakistan Military Consolidates Formal Constitutional Authority Under Munir
Under Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's military has achieved its deepest formal entrenchment in the constitutional order in the country's modern history, using constitutional redesign and a compliant civilian coalition to insulate military authority from political challenge.
Jun 4, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Termez Dialogue Flags Climate Viability Risk for Central-South Asia Connectivity Corridors
The second Termez Dialogue, held June 4-6 in Uzbekistan, convened regional stakeholders to assess connectivity between Central and South Asia, with a specific focus on climate resilience risks to CASA-1000, TAPI, and INSTC.
Jun 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Positions as US-Iran Mediation Hub Under Munir's Leadership
Pakistan's de facto ruler Field Marshal Asim Munir has leveraged Pakistan's diplomatic positioning to offer Islamabad as the venue for US-Iran negotiations, with JD Vance reportedly considering a visit.
May 29, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Gupta Sentencing and Yadav Extradition Exposure in Pannun Assassination Plot
US federal court sentencing of Indian national Nikhil Gupta — who pleaded guilty to orchestrating a failed assassination plot against Khalistan activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun — formalises US judicial findings implicating a RAW-linked Indian government employee, Vikash Yadav.
May 28, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Russia-Taliban Military-Technical Cooperation Agreement Signed
Russia and the Taliban signed a military-technical cooperation agreement on the sidelines of the International Security Forum outside Moscow, with Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu and Taliban Defense Minister Mohammad Yaqoob as signatories.
May 23, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Rubio India Visit Amid U.S.-India Relationship Deterioration
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visits India May 23–26, 2025, meeting Modi, Jaishankar, and Doval, and attending a Quad foreign ministers' gathering in New Delhi.
May 22, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Mediates U.S.-Iran Conflict to Contain Western Frontier Militant Spillover
Pakistan's Field Marshal General Asim Munir conducted a second visit to Tehran on May 22, 2025, as part of Islamabad's mediation efforts during the U.S.-Iran conflict.
May 22, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Liushenyu Coal Mine Explosion, Shanxi Province
An explosion at the privately run Liushenyu coal mine in Shanxi province killed at least 82 people, making it China's deadliest mining accident in over 15 years.
May 16, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
India-Azerbaijan 6th Foreign Office Consultations in Baku
India's MEA Secretary (West) Sibi George met Azerbaijan Deputy Foreign Minister Elnur Mammadov in Baku for the first bilateral Foreign Office consultations since 2022, following a year of diplomatic strain over Operation Sindoor.
May 15, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Corridor Conceptual Agreement
Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan have reached conceptual agreement on a transit corridor connecting Central Asia to Arabian Sea ports at Karachi and Gwadar, with feasibility studies and surveying already underway.
May 12, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Rahmon China State Visit Yields $8 Billion Investment Package and Security Cooperation Expansion
Tajik President Emomali Rahmon's three-day state visit to Beijing produced 50 investment agreements worth $8 billion and an $800 million AIIB assistance package — double the bank's cumulative prior commitments to Tajikistan since 2016.
May 10, 2025
De-escalating
Military
India-Pakistan May 2025 Conflict and Post-Crisis Rearmament
The May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict — triggered by the Pahalgam terrorist attack — produced the most intense cross-border conventional fighting between the two nuclear powers since Kargil 1999, including strikes on nuclear-adjacent infrastructure.
May 8, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Bangladesh-Pakistan Security MoU and High-Level Diplomatic Engagement
Pakistani Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi visited Dhaka on May 8–9, 2025, meeting Bangladesh's Home Minister and State Minister for Foreign Affairs and signing an MoU on security cooperation covering intelligence exchange, counter-narcotics, anti-money laundering, and cross-border crime.
May 7, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Operation Sindoor and Post-Crisis Escalation Norm Shift
India launched Operation Sindoor on May 6-7, 2025, striking terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir in response to the Pahalgam attack. A four-day military exchange followed before a ceasefire on May 10.
May 7, 2025
Mixed
Military
Indian Navy Arabian Sea Coercive Deployment — Operation Sindoor
The Indian Navy deployed approximately 36 frontline warships and submarines near Karachi in the Arabian Sea, establishing a carrier battle group led by INS Vikrant with persistent surveillance and strike readiness.
May 2, 2025
De-escalating
Other
RSF World Press Freedom Index 2025 Records Historic Low
The 2025 RSF World Press Freedom Index finds global press freedom at its lowest point in 25 years, with over half of 180 assessed countries rated 'difficult' or 'very serious.' The share of the global population living under 'good' press freedom conditions has collapsed from 20% in 2002 to under 1%.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Shadow-Earth-053 China-Aligned Dual-Track Cyber Espionage Campaign Disclosed
Trend Micro disclosed Shadow-Earth-053, a China-aligned cyber espionage campaign active since at least December 2024, targeting government and defense networks across Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and NATO member Poland.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Commissions Chinese Hangor-Class Submarine Fleet
Pakistan commissioned its first fleet of eight Hangor-class submarines sourced from China, with four built in China and four to be manufactured domestically under a technology transfer arrangement.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Arrests ISKP Spokesperson Sultan Aziz Azam
Pakistani intelligence detained Sultan Aziz Azam, ISKP's chief spokesperson and founder of the Al-Azaim Foundation media wing, in May 2025, with the arrest confirmed by the UN Sanctions Monitoring Team in December 2025.
Apr 27, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan-China Summit: CPEC Expansion and Strategic Alignment Reaffirmed
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Beijing for high-level meetings with Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, and Wang Yi, producing a joint statement and multiple MoUs.
Apr 27, 2025
De-escalating
Military
BLA Suicide Bombing of Military Train at Quetta's Chaman Phatak Station
The Balochistan Liberation Army detonated a suicide bomb targeting a train carrying Pakistani military personnel and their families at Chaman Phatak station in Quetta.
Apr 26, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Suicide Bombing and Ambush in Bannu
A suicide vehicle-borne IED struck a police checkpoint in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, followed by a direct assault on surviving officers and responding reinforcements, killing fifteen police.
Apr 25, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Zardari China State Visit: CPEC Phase II and Regional Connectivity Alignment
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari arrived in China on April 25 for a week-long visit centered on advancing CPEC's second phase — shifting from infrastructure toward industrialization, SEZs, and digital connectivity.
Apr 24, 2025
Mixed
Military
Pakistan Air Strikes on Afghan Border Provinces
Pakistan conducted air strikes against targets in Afghanistan's Kunar, Khost, and Paktika provinces, destroying what Islamabad described as militant hideouts, a training centre, and an ammunition cache.
Apr 24, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Kyrgyzstan-China-Pakistan Pilot Transport Route Activated
Kyrgyzstan successfully completed a pilot freight run from Bishkek to Karachi via the Karakoram Highway through China, bypassing Afghanistan entirely.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China's Failed Mediation of Pakistan-Taliban Border Conflict
China has attempted to position itself as a mediator between Pakistan and the Taliban amid an escalating border conflict driven by TTP operations from Afghan territory.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
UK Parliament Uyghur Genocide Recognition — Five-Year Policy Gap Assessment
Five years after the UK Parliament unanimously recognized the Chinese government's genocide against Uyghurs, the British government has not aligned executive policy with that parliamentary declaration.
Apr 20, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
New Lines Institute S7+ Forum on Afghanistan-Central Asia Connectivity
Regional experts convened on Capitol Hill to assess Afghanistan's role in the Silk Seven Plus initiative, a framework for a Greater Central Asian economic community with seaport access via Pakistan.
Apr 15, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Russia Conditionally Offers Mediation in Afghanistan-Pakistan Conflict
Russian Special Representative Zamir Kabulov publicly signaled Moscow's readiness to mediate between Pakistan and Afghanistan if formally requested by both sides, while Pakistan's ambassador to Russia confirmed Islamabad has already made such a request.
Apr 15, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Central Asia and UNAMA Expand Pragmatic Engagement Framework for Afghanistan
The article describes the consolidation of a pragmatic engagement framework in which UNAMA mediates between the Taliban and external actors while Central Asian states expand humanitarian, trade, and infrastructure links with Afghanistan.
Apr 12, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Peace Talks Stall in Islamabad Mediation Process
A first round of U.S.-Iran talks hosted by Pakistan in Islamabad on April 11-12 failed to produce a deal, and a planned second round has been suspended due to worsening U.S.-Iran tensions.
Apr 9, 2025
Escalating
Military
India Fortifies Siliguri Corridor and Northeast Military Logistics Network
India is expanding military basing, emergency air operations capacity, and protected transport infrastructure across the Siliguri Corridor and the Northeast to reduce vulnerability of its narrow land link to the region.
Apr 2, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
China Brokers Temporary Pakistan-Afghanistan De-escalation
Senior officials from China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan met in Urumqi, after which cross-border firing, drone attacks, and Pakistani aerial assaults reportedly paused.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Political
BJP Consolidates Pan-Indian Electoral Dominance Across State Elections
The BJP and its National Democratic Alliance allies now control 22 of India's 36 states and union territories following recent state elections, including a landmark victory in West Bengal — historically outside the BJP's Hindi-heartland base.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Taliban Critical Mineral Contracts Lock Afghanistan into Raw-Ore Export Dependency
Since returning to power in 2021, Taliban authorities have issued hundreds of mining contracts — primarily to Chinese, Iranian, Pakistani, and Turkish firms — on opaque terms that prioritize immediate cash over value-chain participation.
Mar 12, 2025
Escalating
Legal
China Enacts Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law
The National People's Congress passed the Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law in March 2025, effective July 1, converting the CCP's assimilationist ethnic policy from discretionary guidance into legally binding statutory obligations with enforcement mechanisms and criminal penalties.
Mar 12, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Moscow Military Court Verdict in Crocus City Hall Attack Trial
Moscow's Second Western District Military Court convicted 19 individuals linked to the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, sentencing the four principal Tajik perpetrators and seven co-conspirators to life imprisonment.
Mar 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Pakistan Intensifies Repression of Baloch Civil Activism After Disputed Provincial Rule
The article describes a sustained pattern in which Pakistan's military and aligned provincial authorities in Balochistan suppress Baloch rights activists through arrests, watch-listing, disappearances, and narrative warfare.
Feb 28, 2025
Mixed
Military
Pakistan-Afghanistan Open War: Airstrikes, Border Closure, and Failed Chinese Mediation
Pakistan declared 'open war' on Afghanistan in late February 2025, conducting dozens of airstrikes on Afghan cities and military infrastructure, closing the shared border, and expelling Afghans en masse.
Feb 26, 2025
Mixed
Military
Pakistan-Afghanistan Open War: Pakistani Airstrikes and Taliban Ground Offensive
Pakistan launched near-daily airstrikes across Afghanistan beginning February 26, targeting weapons depots, military bases including Bagram, and civilian areas across 10 provinces, killing at least 76 civilians per UN documentation.
Feb 13, 2025
De-escalating
Military
BLA Sustained Campaign Against Jaffer Express Railway
The Baloch Liberation Army and affiliated separatist groups have conducted at least 28 attacks on the Jaffer Express and associated railway infrastructure in Balochistan over 18 months, including bombings, a 36-hour hostage siege killing 64 people, and a suicide attack on Quetta station.
Jan 31, 2025
De-escalating
Military
BLA Coordinated Multi-Site Assault on Balochistan, Including Reko Diq Corridor
Over 500 BLA militants struck at least 18 targets across 12 areas in Balochistan simultaneously, killing 58 people including 36 civilians and 22 security forces.
Jan 22, 2025
Escalating
Military
Pakistan Security Forces Kill Eight TTP Militants in North Waziristan
Pakistani security forces killed eight TTP-affiliated militants during a border engagement in North Waziristan after detecting militant movement along the Pak-Afghan frontier.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Japan Expands Pacific Security Assistance Framework Under FOIP
Japan is incrementally restructuring its Pacific engagement by linking development, maritime capacity building, and new security assistance tools to its broader Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
United States Embeds Anti-China Alignment Clauses in Bilateral Trade Deals
The United States has negotiated a series of bilateral trade agreements that include economic-security provisions requiring partner states to align trade policy more closely with Washington and away from China.
Sep 26, 2023
De-escalating
Alliance
SRA-BRAS Alliance Formalizes Cross-Ethnic Insurgent Coalition Against CPEC
The Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army became the first non-Baloch organization to formally ally with Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS), an umbrella alliance of Baloch armed groups.
Aug 15, 2021
Escalating
Institutional
Taliban Systematic Exclusion of Afghan Women from Education and Public Life
Since seizing Kabul in August 2021, the Taliban have issued over 80 edicts targeting women, banning girls from education above sixth grade, barring women from most professions, and in December 2024 closing the last professional pathway by prohibiting women from studying medicine or midwifery.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Chinese Work Resumes on Tajikistan's Dushanbe-Kulma Highway Under Guard
Chinese workers returned to the strategic Dushanbe-Kulma highway in Tajikistan after attacks near the Afghan border killed five Chinese nationals in late 2025 and halted construction.
Date unknown
Stable
Cyber
BLF Modernizes Propaganda Apparatus Under Akhtar Nadeem
The Balochistan Liberation Front has professionalized its information operations under spokesman Akhtar Nadeem, launching structured magazines, battle-damage-assessment units, and content covering battlefield use of artificial intelligence.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
India's Ceasefire Policy Deadlocks Manipur Conflict
An analytical account assesses how India's strategy of indefinitely extending ceasefires with northeastern rebel groups has entrenched rather than resolved the three-year Manipur conflict between Meitei, Kuki-Zo, and Naga communities.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Seeks to Leverage Iran Mediation for Global Influence
Pakistan's mediation of the U.S.-Iran framework deal, announced first by PM Shehbaz Sharif, positions Islamabad to claim enhanced global influence.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
EU Hosts Taliban Delegation for Afghan Deportation Talks
EU member states pressed the European Commission to coordinate technical talks with a Taliban delegation over consular services and the return of Afghan nationals, with several states already conducting bilateral deportations.
Date unknown
Mixed
Sanctions
Southeast Asia Hedges Against Chinese Development Finance Dependence
The analysis maps how Southeast Asian states manage exposure to Chinese development finance, ranging from constrained dependence (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar) to restrained diversification (Vietnam, Philippines) and opportunistic hedging (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand).
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Central Asia's Trade-Route Diversification Collapses Amid Regional Wars
Central Asia's effort to reduce dependence on Russia's Northern Corridor has failed as overlapping conflicts shut its alternatives: U.S. strikes and a port blockade closed Iran's Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, Pakistan-Taliban fighting severed the Afghanistan-Pakistan route, and retaliatory Iranian strikes damaged Middle Corridor infrastructure including Nakhichevan's airport.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
US, France, UK Block China-Pakistan UNSC Bid to Blacklist BLA
The US, France, and UK blocked a joint China-Pakistan resolution to list the Baloch Liberation Army and its Majeed Brigade under the UNSC 1267 Sanctions Committee, citing the committee's al-Qaida and Islamic State mandate.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Central Asia Multi-Alignment Leverage Consolidation
Central Asian states are converting geographic centrality into structural leverage as maritime-trade disruption from the Iran-U.S. war and Russia's estrangement from G7 economies narrow viable logistics options for neighboring powers.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Asim Munir Consolidates De Facto Rule While Leading Pakistan's Iran Mediation
Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's chief of army staff since 2022, has emerged as the dominant power center in Pakistan while simultaneously positioning the country as a lead mediator in the US-Iran conflict.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Global Middle-Power Military AI Procurement Race
Middle powers are actively procuring and integrating AI into military operations, choosing among three pathways: frontier closed-weight models from U.S. labs, open-weight general-purpose models, or narrow tactical AI.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Pakistan Proscribes JAAC Under Anti-Terrorism Legislation Ahead of AJK Elections
The AJK government designated the Joint Awami Action Committee a proscribed organization under anti-terrorism legislation, coinciding with the opening of nomination filings for legislative elections expected on July 27.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Violence Lull Amid TTP Standoff
A relative cessation of cross-border violence between Afghanistan and Pakistan has emerged, attributed primarily to both sides' interest in avoiding escalation during active U.S.-Iran negotiations rather than any diplomatic breakthrough.
War / Asia-Pacific
Pakistan strikes Afghan provinces as Taliban patron gains harden across Russia, Central Asia, and EU tracks.
Conflict / Asia-Pacific
India widens its military edge as Pakistan pivots to Eurasian corridors and US strategic attention shifts away from South Asia.