Escalating / Eurasia / 2022–present
Russia-Ukraine War
Trump-brokered ceasefire collapsed on day two as Russia pressed Donetsk offensives and Ukraine struck deep into Russian strategic depth.
Operation HADIN KAI's Q1 2026 strikes eliminated senior ISWAP commander Abu Ya'yar al-Muhajir and killed over 100 insurgents, representing the most significant command-layer attrition in recent months, but the gains have not translated into territorial containment.
The Sadiku wing of JAS is escalating independently in the Borgu-Kainji corridor, shifting from episodic raids toward sanctuary-building in poorly governed forest and border zones that extend jihadist operational depth toward coastal West Africa.
Escalation Trace
Analysis
Operation HADIN KAI is demonstrably attriting ISWAP's command layer and logistics, but simultaneous geographic expansion into Borgu-Kainji and the credible Abuja threat plot confirm that leadership degradation does not.
The Borgu-Kainji expansion is the most strategically significant recent development: if the Sadiku wing consolidates sanctuary in that corridor.
The JNIM-to-ISGS defection of commander Saad removes al-Qaeda's conditional accommodation doctrine from his operational area and transfers experienced fighters and local networks to a formation that rejects negotiation.
Climate displacement is now compounding the security environment structurally: climate shocks erode governance capacity and social cohesion across all four riparian states.
Historical Context
Theater
We're stabilizing the geo layer and will bring this view back once the theater experience is reliable again.
Focus Region
Africa
Geo-Linked Events
11
Islamic State core provides ideological branding and limited financial networks to ISWAP; Western and US counterterrorism support to riparian states
Wadagni Elected President of Benin with 94.27% of Vote
Romuald Wadagni won Benin's presidential election with 94.27% of the vote, marking the fifth democratic transfer of power since 1990 and the first under a significantly restructured constitutional framework.
Lakurawa Consolidates Coercive Governance in Northwest Nigeria Borderlands
Lakurawa has shifted from a tolerated anti-banditry presence in Sokoto and Kebbi states into a coercive parallel governance actor, enforcing Islamic behavioral codes, extracting resources through taxation and confiscation, and neutralizing community vigilantes.
Continue With
All conflictsEscalating / Eurasia / 2022–present
Trump-brokered ceasefire collapsed on day two as Russia pressed Donetsk offensives and Ukraine struck deep into Russian strategic depth.
Escalating / Middle East / 2024–present
A nominal ceasefire holds on paper while Iran throttles Hormuz and a Trump-Xi summit tests whether Beijing will press Tehran.
Escalating / Middle East / 1948–present
A U.S.-Iran war grinds under nominal ceasefire as Hormuz coercion, blockade standoff, and stalled Islamabad talks define the conflict's current.
Boko Haram was founded in Maiduguri, Nigeria by Mohammed Yusuf as a Salafist movement rejecting Western education and secular governance, laying the ideological groundwork for armed conflict.
Nigerian security forces killed Yusuf and crushed a Boko Haram uprising in Maiduguri, killing over 700 people; the crackdown radicalized survivors and transformed the group into a full insurgency under Abubakar Shekau.
Boko Haram escalated to suicide bombings and complex attacks, including a strike on UN headquarters in Abuja, signaling a shift to large-scale terrorism beyond northeastern Nigeria.
Boko Haram seized roughly 20,000 square miles of territory in Borno State and abducted 276 schoolgirls from Chibok, drawing global attention and prompting a regional military response.
Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Cameroon, and Benin formally activated the Multinational Joint Task Force, recapturing most Boko Haram-held territory but failing to eliminate the group.
A major faction broke from Shekau and pledged allegiance to ISIS, forming Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which adopted a strategy of targeting soldiers while cultivating civilian populations around Lake Chad.
ISWAP fighters killed Shekau in a battlefield confrontation, absorbing much of his faction and consolidating as the dominant insurgent force across Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon.
Despite ongoing MNJTF operations, ISWAP and residual Boko Haram factions continued large-scale attacks on military bases and villages, with the conflict displacing over 2 million people across the Lake Chad basin.
Proxy Network
ISWAP functions as the basin's primary Islamic State franchise, translating local insurgency into transnational jihadist branding and absorbing defecting Boko.
Boko Haram Sadiku wing (JAS) is escalating independently in the Borgu-Kainji corridor.
Boko Haram splinter factions provide a fragmented militant layer that defects opportunistically between ISWAP and JAS depending on operational pressure.
JNIM-defector commander Saad transferred his fighter contingent to ISGS following a reported JNIM truce with Benin.
Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) functions as a transnational external operations hub integrating IS global command.
Battle Deaths
Tsamiya-Kamba Corridor Reopening Between Nigeria, Niger, and Benin
Nigeria officially reopened the Tsamiya-Kamba border corridor in Kebbi State, restoring cross-border movement of goods and people between Nigeria, Niger, and Benin after seven years of closure.
Pope Leo XIV Inaugural Africa Tour
Pope Leo XIV completed a 10-day inaugural African tour spanning Algeria, Cameroon, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea — all authoritarian states with significant Catholic populations.
Lake Chad Basin Climate-Conflict Displacement Compounding Crisis
Climate disasters have surpassed armed conflict as the primary driver of displacement in the Lake Chad Basin, while the two stressors are increasingly compounding each other.
Boko Haram Sadiku Wing Expands Operations into Borgu-Kainji Axis
The Sadiku wing of JAS has escalated attacks across the Borgu-Kainji corridor, including mass killings, kidnappings and roadside bombings, while Nigerian responses remain localized and reactive.
Nigeria Raises Abuja Security Over Reported Jihadist Attack Plot
A Nigerian Customs Service memo triggered heightened security measures around Abuja after warning of credible Boko Haram and ISWAP plans to strike the capital's airport and prison facilities.
Nigeria Resumes Mass Terrorism Trials in Abuja
Nigeria resumed large-scale terrorism prosecutions at the Federal High Court in Abuja, with multiple judges hearing cases simultaneously and sentencing several defendants linked to Boko Haram.
JNIM Commander 'Saad' Defects to ISGS with Fighter Contingent
JNIM commander 'Saad,' who spearheaded the group's expansion into eastern Burkina Faso, defected to rival ISGS with several dozen fighters following a reported JNIM truce with the Beninese government.
Nigeria Operation HADIN KAI Q1 2026 Offensive — ISWAP Leadership Attrition
Nigerian military forces, operating under Operation HADIN KAI, conducted precision air and ground strikes across Borno, Adamawa, Bauchi, Taraba, and Yobe states in Q1 2026, killing over 100 insurgents and eliminating senior ISWAP commander Abu Ya'yar al-Muhajir.
Boko Haram/ISWAP Mass Abduction Attempt Repelled in Borno State
Boko Haram/ISWAP forces attempted to abduct approximately 150 civilians travelling in 17 vehicles along the Buratai-Kamuya axis in Borno State, attacking a Nigerian Army escort force.
ISSP Emerges as Transnational External Operations Hub
Islamic State Sahel Province has transitioned from a localized insurgency to a structured external operations platform, integrating into IS global command in 2022 and expanding networks into Morocco, Spain, France, Austria, and beyond.
Mass Civilian Killings in Niger's Tahoua Region
Armed assailants on motorbikes attacked three isolated villages in the Birni N'Koni department of Niger's Tahoua region, killing 30 civilians and seizing approximately 500 head of livestock before withdrawing into Nigeria.
Wagner Information Network Crackdown and Expulsion in Chad
Chadian authorities arrested four Wagner-linked Russian operatives — including Maxim Shugaley and Evgeny Tsarev — along with several local journalists after the operatives attempted to establish influence infrastructure in N'Djamena, including a 'Russian House' cultural center.