War / Asia-Pacific
Myanmar Civil War
Junta air campaign grinds on as cumulative deaths near 100,000 and resistance holds territory without converting it to strategic advantage.
The Myanmar-Bangladesh Border Crisis is a civil war fought across one of the world's largest stateless populations.
In 2016, Rohingya militants attacked Myanmar border posts, triggering a Tatmadaw scorched-earth campaign that drove 740,000 Rohingya into Bangladesh by 2017 in what UN investigators called genocide. The conflict then changed shape. Since 2023, the Arakan Army, a Rakhine ethnic force with no allegiance to the Rohingya cause, has seized roughly 90 percent of Rakhine State from the junta. China backs both sides pragmatically, protecting its Bay of Bengal pipelines.
The Rohingya have no patron, no state, and over a million people stuck in Cox's Bazar with nowhere to return to.
Myanmar's civil war is approaching 100,000 dead and has hardened into a durable stalemate, with no party able to convert battlefield control into stable governance or population return.
The Arakan Army holds roughly 90 percent of Rakhine State and continues to exercise coercive state-like functions on the Bangladesh frontier, including detention of at least 165 Bangladeshi fishermen as of mid-2026 and reported ransom extraction.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Myanmar's civil war is approaching 100,000 dead with no single actor able to convert territorial control into stable governance.
China holds simultaneous leverage over both the junta and the Arakan Army through arms supply and diplomatic cover to Naypyidaw and Bay of Bengal access and pipeline infrastructure over the AA.
The AA's coercive detention of Bangladeshi fishermen and ransom extraction along the Naf River is the clearest indicator that the frontier has transformed.
Bangladesh's Hasina government falls amid mass protests; interim leader Muhammad Yunus adopts a less cooperative stance toward Myanmar, complicating management of the world's largest refugee camp hosting over one million Rohingya at Cox's Bazar.
The Arakan Army launches a sweeping offensive under Operation 1027, capturing the majority of Rakhine State from the junta by 2024 and becoming the de facto authority over most of the region.
The military coup ousting Aung San Suu Kyi's government accelerates armed resistance across Myanmar, allowing the Arakan Army to dramatically expand recruitment and territorial ambitions in Rakhine State.
Following an ARSA assault on 30 police outposts, the Tatmadaw burns 288 villages, kills an estimated 10,000 Rohingya, and drives 740,000 into Bangladesh within three months; a UN fact-finding mission concludes there was genocidal intent.
ARSA attacks on Myanmar border posts trigger Tatmadaw "clearance operations" in northern Rakhine State, marking the conflict's modern escalation.
The Arakan Army is founded in Kachin State, beginning as a small ethnic armed organization seeking Rakhine self-determination, entirely separate from the Rohingya cause.
Myanmar's Citizenship Law strips Rohingya Muslims of legal nationality, rendering approximately 1 million people stateless and laying the legal foundation for decades of persecution.
Arakan (Rakhine State) is incorporated into independent Burma against the wishes of many ethnic Rakhine, seeding a separatist movement that would produce the Arakan Army decades later.
Arakan Army functions as the primary autonomous armed actor and de facto governing authority across roughly 90 percent of Rakhine State.
ARSA and RSO operate as localized armed spoilers in border zones and refugee camp areas near Bangladesh.
Brotherhood Alliance provides the AA with a broader insurgent coalition framework along the China border.
Zomi Revolutionary Army serves as a Tatmadaw-aligned auxiliary in Chin State, providing ground manpower for junta offensives in Falam and Tonzang.
Kuki Chin National Front maintains an insurgent presence in Chin State and along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border corridor into Mizoram.
PRO-ARAKAN ARMY
PRO-JUNTA
Jun 22, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Bangladesh-Malaysia Bilateral Summit and 33-Point Joint Statement
Bangladeshi PM Tarique Rahman's first foreign visit produced a 33-point joint statement with Malaysia spanning labor migration, trade, defense, and digital cooperation.
Jun 20, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Bangladesh PM Rahman's First Foreign Trip to Malaysia and China
Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's inaugural overseas trip targets Chinese investment and Malaysian labor markets, with up to 17 bilateral instruments and the Teesta River project on the China agenda.
Jun 15, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Record Asian Synthetic Drug Seizures Driven by Myanmar Production
UNODC reported methamphetamine seizures of 349 tons in East and Southeast Asia in 2025, up 48 percent, and a 185 percent rise in ketamine seizures, concentrated in Myanmar's Shan State where state authority has collapsed since the 2021 coup.
Jun 4, 2026
De-escalating
Political
BJP West Bengal Win Escalates India-Bangladesh Border Tensions
The BJP's capture of West Bengal extended its control to most Indian states bordering Bangladesh and triggered an immediate escalation in border-hardening and migrant pushbacks, with Bangladesh reporting it foiled attempts to force people across the frontier.
May 19, 2026
Escalating
Military
Tatmadaw Recapture of Tonzang in Chin State Offensive
On May 19, 2026, the Tatmadaw and allied Zomi Revolutionary Army recaptured Tonzang on the Tedim-Kale trade route, following the earlier recapture of Falam in April 2026.
Apr 30, 2026
Escalating
Political
Myanmar Junta Executes Cosmetic Civilian Transition Under Min Aung Hlaing
Myanmar's military junta completed a staged political makeover: a controlled multi-phase election in December 2025–January 2026, Min Aung Hlaing's rebranding as civilian president, the release of ousted President Win Myint, and the transfer of Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to house arrest.
Apr 23, 2026
Mixed
Political
West Bengal State Assembly Election 2026
West Bengal's 294-seat legislative assembly election began April 23, 2026, with results expected May 4. The contest pits incumbent Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's TMC against the BJP, which has grown from 3 seats in 2016 to 77 in 2021.
Apr 16, 2026
Escalating
Legal
Bangladesh Parliament Maintains Awami League Ban
Bangladesh's new parliament voted to maintain the ban on the Awami League and reinforced it through an Anti-Terrorism amendment framed around proscribing a 'genocidal organization.' The move consolidates the BNP-led government's ability to exclude its principal rival from formal politics, shifting competition from electoral contestation toward legal-administrative control.
Apr 7, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
India-Bangladesh Bilateral Re-engagement Under Tarique Rahman Government
Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman's expected visit to New Delhi marks the first high-level bilateral engagement since the collapse of Sheikh Hasina's government and the subsequent deterioration in ties.
Apr 6, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Bangladesh Initiates Post-Hasina Diplomatic Reset with India
Bangladesh's current government signaled a formal effort to rebuild ties with India after the collapse of the Hasina government, framing the relationship as state-based rather than leader-centric.
Apr 1, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
Bangladesh Parliament Institutionalizes Awami League Political Ban
Bangladesh's BNP-led parliament passed legislation in April 2026 formalizing the ban framework introduced under the interim administration, institutionalizing the Awami League's exclusion from formal politics.
Apr 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN Five-Point Consensus Declared Structurally Failed Ahead of 48th Summit
Five years after adoption, ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus has produced no measurable compliance from Myanmar's junta across any of its five benchmarks.
Apr 1, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
India Appoints BJP Politician as High Commissioner to Bangladesh
India appointed Dinesh Trivedi, a BJP politician with deep West Bengal roots, as its new High Commissioner to Bangladesh — breaking with the established norm of sending career diplomats to Dhaka.
Apr 1, 2026
Stable
Alliance
Bangladesh BRI Decade Assessment: Partial Implementation and Sustained Neutrality
Nearly a decade after joining the BRI in October 2016, Bangladesh has received only $4.45 billion of a pledged $40 billion, with Chinese firms securing contracts worth $22.94 billion across 35-40 projects in transport and energy.
Mar 31, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Min Aung Hlaing Elected Vice-President in Myanmar Civilianization Process
Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing was elected vice-president by the lower house with 247 of 260 votes, initiating a scripted transition toward a nominally civilian presidency.
Mar 13, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Issues 15th Five-Year Plan Defense Outline for PLA Modernization
China's 15th Five-Year Plan outline elevates military governance, doctrinal modernization, and military-civil fusion as core defense priorities through 2030.
Mar 12, 2026
De-escalating
Cyber
Scam-Centre Networks Displace from Cambodia into Sri Lanka
Crackdowns in Cambodia and action against Prince Group have increased pressure on regional scam-centre operators, but the networks are adapting by relocating into smaller, distributed cells in Sri Lanka.
Feb 1, 2026
Mixed
Political
Bangladesh 2026 General Election and BNP Return to Power
The BNP won 209 of 300 parliamentary seats in Bangladesh's February 2026 elections, the country's first credible vote since 2008, with Tarique Rahman assuming the prime ministership after ending seventeen years of exile.
Feb 1, 2026
Escalating
Political
Myanmar Junta Holds Sham Elections with Buddhist Fundamentalist Endorsement
Myanmar's military junta staged general elections in February 2026, widely condemned as illegitimate, and received public endorsement from Ashin Wirathu, founder of the 969 and Ma Ba Tha Buddhist fundamentalist movements.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN Maintains Myanmar Junta Exclusion at 48th Summit
At the 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu, ASEAN leaders maintained their blacklisting of Myanmar's military leadership, refusing to seat Min Aung Hlaing's junta despite its January elections and new presidential designation.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Political
South Asian Militaries Reassert Political Primacy
The piece identifies a regional pattern in which militaries in Pakistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Nepal have become pivotal political actors during crises and transitions.
Sep 1, 2025
Escalating
Legal
U.S. Legislative Push to Counter Myanmar-Based Scam Compound Networks
The U.S. Congress introduced two bills in September 2025 — the Dismantle Foreign Scam Syndicates Act and the SCAM Act — targeting transnational scam networks operating from Myanmar and Cambodia.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Other
China's Overseas Port Network: Systemic Economic, Political, and Security Assessment
A structured analytical assessment of China's global port footprint identifies a multi-vector influence architecture operating through commercial operators, state-backed financing, and infrastructure dependency.
Jun 10, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
ASEAN Myanmar Envoy Announces Engagement with Ethnic Armed Groups
Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro, acting as ASEAN special envoy on Myanmar, announced plans to meet ethnic armed groups — a departure from ASEAN's historically junta-centric engagement posture.
Jun 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
India-Myanmar State Visit: Modi Hosts Min Aung Hlaing
Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing visited New Delhi for a five-day state visit, meeting Prime Minister Modi and issuing a joint statement pledging expanded cooperation in defense, trade, technology, energy, critical minerals, and border security.
May 24, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
ASEAN-China AI Industry Innovation Center Inaugurated in Beijing
ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn inaugurated the ASEAN-China Artificial Intelligence Industry Innovation Center in Beijing on May 24, 2025, as a flagship project under the 2026-2030 China-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
May 14, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
48th ASEAN Summit: Emergency Energy Coordination and Myanmar Normalization Engagement
The 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu convened under acute pressure from the Hormuz closure, which has disrupted energy flows to a bloc importing 66 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East.
May 11, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN Drift Toward Myanmar Junta Re-engagement
At the 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu and in subsequent bilateral moves, regional actors signaled a shift from diplomatic quarantine toward pragmatic re-engagement with Myanmar's military government.
May 8, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN Leaders' Summit Convenes Amid Hormuz-Driven Energy Crisis
ASEAN heads of state convened in Cebu, Philippines for a reduced-format summit dominated by the regional fallout from the U.S.-Iran war and the Hormuz blockade.
May 6, 2025
Escalating
Legal
Ninth Circuit Dismisses Rohingya Genocide Lawsuit Against Meta Under Section 230
A U.S. Ninth Circuit panel ruled that Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act bars Rohingya plaintiffs' claims that Meta's algorithmic amplification of hate speech substantially caused the 2017 military-led ethnic cleansing campaign.
May 5, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Bangladesh Foreign Minister Rahman Visits China Amid India-Bangladesh Tensions
Bangladeshi Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman conducted a three-day official visit to China at the invitation of Foreign Minister Wang Yi, explicitly framing it as a response to Indian delays on the Teesta River water-sharing agreement and conditioned energy supplies.
May 4, 2025
Escalating
Political
BJP Captures West Bengal, Consolidating Control Over India-Bangladesh Border States
The BJP's landslide victory in West Bengal's state assembly elections places over 80% of India's 4,096.7 km border with Bangladesh under direct BJP governance, with only Mizoram outside BJP control.
Apr 30, 2025
Stable
Legal
Myanmar Junta Grants Second Sentence Reduction to Aung San Suu Kyi
Myanmar's military government commuted Aung San Suu Kyi's sentence for a second time in two weeks as part of a broader prisoner amnesty, reducing her remaining term to just over 18 years.
Apr 24, 2025
Escalating
Legal
Myanmar Junta Issues Emergency Military Control Ordinances Over 60 Townships
Min Aung Hlaing has issued emergency ordinances placing 60 townships under direct military administration, bypassing civilian governance structures in conflict-affected regions.
Apr 23, 2025
Escalating
Legal
U.S. Coordinated Action Against Southeast Asian Scam Centers and Trafficking Networks
U.S. authorities — DOJ, OFAC, and State Department — announced coordinated sanctions, seizures, and enforcement actions targeting Southeast Asian fraud compounds and associated cryptocurrency networks, including seizure of a Telegram channel used for trafficking recruitment.
Apr 18, 2025
Escalating
Political
Myanmar Junta Issues New Year Amnesty After Min Aung Hlaing Presidency
Myanmar's military-led administration released thousands of prisoners, freed former president Win Myint, and reduced Aung San Suu Kyi's sentence shortly after Min Aung Hlaing assumed the presidency under a civilianized political arrangement.
Apr 13, 2025
De-escalating
Alliance
U.S. Seeks Blanket Military Overflight Access Across Indonesia
The United States reportedly requested broad overflight access for military aircraft across Indonesian airspace, including transit and contingency-related activities, ahead of a senior defense engagement.
Apr 9, 2025
Escalating
Military
India Fortifies Siliguri Corridor and Northeast Military Logistics Network
India is expanding military basing, emergency air operations capacity, and protected transport infrastructure across the Siliguri Corridor and the Northeast to reduce vulnerability of its narrow land link to the region.
Apr 4, 2025
Escalating
Political
Min Aung Hlaing Elected Myanmar President via Controlled Parliamentary Vote
Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing was elected president by a military-dominated parliament, completing a transition from de facto military ruler to nominal civilian head of state.
Apr 3, 2025
Escalating
Political
Min Aung Hlaing Installed as Myanmar President via Junta-Controlled Parliament
On 3 April 2025, Myanmar's junta-controlled parliament voted to install Senior General Min Aung Hlaing as president, completing a staged legitimation sequence that began with sham elections in December 2025.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Political
Min Aung Hlaing Assumes Myanmar Presidency, Releases Win Myint
Min Aung Hlaing formally assumed the Myanmar presidency following a regime-orchestrated election in which major pro-democracy parties were barred from competing.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
India Launches Second IOS Sagar Multilateral Naval Deployment
India deployed a warship from Mumbai under the IOS Sagar initiative with 38 personnel from 16 nations embedded as an operational crew, spanning the Maldives, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.
Mar 26, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Bangladesh Air Force Modernization Stagnation and Eurofighter Typhoon Procurement Collapse
Bangladesh's Independence Day parade exposed the BAF's structural obsolescence: 44 combat aircraft, 36 of which are aging Chengdu F-7 platforms, with only eight legacy MiG-29s rounding out the fleet.
Mar 26, 2025
De-escalating
Military
India Considers Reptile Deployment on Bangladesh River Border
An internal BSF communication sought field assessment of using snakes or crocodiles in unfenced riverine gaps along the India-Bangladesh border, reportedly following guidance from Home Minister Amit Shah.
Mar 18, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Min Aung Hlaing Elected Vice-President in Myanmar Managed Transition
Myanmar's lower house elected junta chief Min Aung Hlaing as vice-president with 247 of 260 votes, initiating a formal transfer from uniform to civilian title.
Mar 2, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
AA Supreme Commander Twan Mrat Naing Grants First Foreign Correspondent Interview, Outlining Governance and Negotiation Posture
Arakan Army Supreme Commander Twan Mrat Naing granted his first-ever one-on-one interview to a foreign correspondent, publicly articulating the AA's negotiating red lines, governance consolidation trajectory, and regional diplomatic posture.
Jan 29, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
ICJ Genocide Case Against Myanmar Enters Final Deliberation Phase
The ICJ concluded public hearings on the merits of The Gambia's genocide case against Myanmar (January 12–29, 2025) and entered final deliberation. Eleven states have intervened.
Jan 20, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Administration Dismantles U.S. Democracy-Support Infrastructure in Myanmar, Pivots to Junta Engagement
The Trump administration has systematically dismantled U.S. democracy-promotion and humanitarian programs in Myanmar — shuttering USAID operations, ending refugee resettlement, silencing VOA and Radio Free Asia, and removing temporary protected status for Myanmar nationals — while signaling openness to engagement with the military junta.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Forced Displacement of CHT Ethnic Minorities from Bangladesh to Myanmar
Non-Muslim ethnic minorities from Bangladesh's Chittagong Hill Tracts — including Marma, Bawm, and Chakma communities — have been driven into Myanmar's Rakhine and Chin States over multiple decades through a combination of Bangladesh army operations, Muslim settler encroachment backed by political actors, and armed conflict with the Kuki Chin National Front.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Japan Expands Pacific Security Assistance Framework Under FOIP
Japan is incrementally restructuring its Pacific engagement by linking development, maritime capacity building, and new security assistance tools to its broader Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy.
Dec 8, 2024
De-escalating
Military
Arakan Army Consolidates Border Control, Triggering Bangladeshi Fishermen Hostage Crisis
Following the AA's seizure of Maungdaw on December 8, 2024, at least 399 Bangladeshi fishermen have been abducted from the Naf River, with 165 remaining in rebel custody as of May 2026.
May 2, 2024
Mixed
Military
Htan Shauk Khan Village Destruction and Civilian Casualties, Rakhine State
During the Arakan Army's advance on Buthidaung Township, Myanmar military forces conducted airstrikes and artillery shelling on Htan Shauk Khan village, a Rohingya-inhabited settlement that had been used as a staging base by ARSA-aligned recruits and Myanmar military personnel.
Oct 27, 2023
De-escalating
Military
Myanmar Junta Loses Territorial Control to Resistance Offensives
Three years after the 2021 coup, momentum has shifted to Myanmar's resistance, with the Brotherhood Alliance's Operation 1027 from October 2023 overrunning military bases, border crossings, and regional towns in northern Shan State.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Bangladesh Institutionalizes Its China Partnership
PM Rahman's visit to China continued a strikingly consistent Bangladesh-China policy across three governments, formalizing strategic dialogue, a 2+2 mechanism and support for Bangladesh's BRICS and SCO ambitions.
Date unknown
Stable
Military
Myanmar Civil War Toll Nears 100,000 Amid Rakhine Atrocity Allegations
ACLED data indicates the cumulative death toll from Myanmar's civil war is approaching 100,000 as fighting hardens into a stalemate.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Myanmar Junta Escalates Air Campaign as Western Backing for Rebels Stays Absent
Five years after the coup, Myanmar's military sustains an intensifying campaign of airstrikes, drones, gyrocopters and village burnings against outgunned resistance forces in Anyar, while the West withholds arms and the junta draws weapons from Russia and China.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
Bangladesh-Malaysia Labor Migration and Economic Talks
Bangladeshi PM Tarique Rahman met Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim in Putrajaya, requesting Malaysia reopen its labor market to Bangladeshi workers while both pledged broad expansion of economic ties including FTA talks and defense cooperation.
Date unknown
Stable
Institutional
ASEAN Refugee Responsibility-Sharing Debate
Myanmar's civil war and the Rohingya crisis have generated cross-border displacement that ASEAN's national-response model cannot manage, exposing a structural weakness in the bloc's regional architecture.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Bangladesh to Fence Border After Arakan Army Takes Rakhine Frontier
Bangladesh announced plans to fence parts of its 270-kilometer border with Myanmar after the Arakan Army's December 2024 capture of Maungdaw left it in de facto control of northern Rakhine's frontier.
Date unknown
Stable
Military
Myanmar Records World's Highest Landmine Casualties in 2025
Myanmar recorded the world's highest antipersonnel landmine casualties in 2025 at 2,029, nearly double the prior year, as the military and, increasingly, resistance armed groups mined bases, withdrawal routes, and civilian areas.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict Threatens ASEAN Cohesion
Cambodia and Thailand engaged in two bouts of open armed conflict in 2024 — five days in July and nearly three weeks in December — driven by contested colonial borders, transnational criminal entanglement, and nationalist escalation.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
China's Structural Embeddedness in Latin American Strategic Sectors
Over two decades, China has embedded itself into Latin America's ports, telecommunications networks, energy systems, critical mineral supply chains, and digital infrastructure — creating durable structural leverage that does not depend on military presence.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
China MPS Builds Global Police Cooperation Network via 205 Security Agreements (2006–2025)
China's Ministry of Public Security has signed at least 205 bilateral and multilateral policing and security cooperation agreements with 74 countries since 2006, with activity peaks in 2010, 2016–2018, and post-2024.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Legal
ICJ Genocide Deliberations Against Myanmar Junta Generals
The International Court of Justice is deliberating on genocide allegations against senior Myanmar junta generals related to atrocities committed against the Rohingya. A verdict is expected within approximately three months.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
Myanmar Junta Reconvenes Parliament, Appoints Min Aung Hlaing as President
Myanmar's military-controlled parliament convened for the first time in five years, with former commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing formally appointed as president.
War / Asia-Pacific
Junta air campaign grinds on as cumulative deaths near 100,000 and resistance holds territory without converting it to strategic advantage.
War / Asia-Pacific
Pakistan strikes Afghan provinces after Karachi paramilitary attack as the insurgency's geographic reach and cross-border dynamics both escalate.