War / Asia-Pacific
Myanmar-Bangladesh Border Crisis
Myanmar's civil war nears 100,000 dead as the Arakan Army consolidates Rakhine and Bangladesh pivots toward China and Malaysia.
Myanmar has been at war with itself since 1948, when ethnic minorities took up arms against the Burman-dominated central government the day independence arrived.
The current phase began in February 2021, when General Min Aung Hlaing's coup against Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government triggered a nationwide armed uprising. The military junta now fights more than 1,200 distinct armed groups, including the National Unity Government's People's Defence Force and ethnic armies like the Arakan Army, Kachin Independence Army, and the Chinese-border Brotherhood Alliance. China, Russia, and India arm and shield the junta. The resistance has no state arms supplier and fights with captured weapons and crowdfunding.
It is winning anyway.
Myanmar's war has hardened into a punishing stalemate five years after the coup, with the junta unable to pacify the heartland and the resistance unable to break junta air dominance.
Cumulative deaths are approaching 100,000, and Min Aung Hlaing's assumption of the presidency via stage-managed elections marks a political consolidation attempt that the UN has called a sham.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The air-power asymmetry remains the conflict's decisive structural constraint: the resistance holds more than half the country but cannot convert territorial depth into strategic advantage without anti-air capacity.
China's patron commitment has shifted from transactional to load-bearing, encompassing formal diplomatic cover, election financing, and mediation leverage over the Brotherhood Alliance.
The Arakan Army's atrocity allegations in Rakhine State introduce a compounding liability for the resistance coalition.
Anti-junta forces capture Lashio, the largest city in northern Shan State and site of a key military regional command, as Tatmadaw control continues to fragment across multiple fronts simultaneously.
Operation 1027 launches in October as the Brotherhood Alliance (Arakan Army, MNDAA, TNLA) seizes major towns and military bases in northern Shan State, marking the junta's largest territorial losses since the 2021 coup.
The PDF and longstanding ethnic armed organizations begin coordinating offensives against the military, fragmenting the battlefield across more than 1,200 distinct armed groups — making Myanmar the most fragmented conflict globally per ACLED data.
General Min Aung Hlaing launches a coup on February 1st, arresting Aung San Suu Kyi and reversing democratic rule; mass civil disobedience evolves into armed resistance as the NUG forms the People's Defence Force (PDF).
A managed transition to quasi-civilian government begins under President Thein Sein, followed by NLD election victories in 2015; multiple ceasefire agreements with ethnic armed organizations are signed but largely fail to hold.
A nationwide pro-democracy uprising is violently crushed by the military, killing thousands; the junta rebrands as the SLORC and Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD emerges as the leading civilian opposition force.
General Ne Win seizes power in a coup and imposes a military dictatorship, suppressing both democratic opposition and ethnic insurgencies under a policy of forced national unity that deepens minority grievances.
MNDAA functions as a Chinese-border pressure node whose offensive tempo Beijing can expand or pause through mediation leverage over the Brotherhood Alliance.
Arakan Army operates as a de facto sovereign across roughly 90 percent of Rakhine State, including the Maungdaw frontier.
TNLA anchors the northern Shan State arm of the Brotherhood Alliance and coordinates offensive sequencing with MNDAA under Chinese-mediated ceasefire.
United Wa State Army holds autonomous borderland capacity with independent coercive force and cross-border economic ties to China that insulate it from both.
Kachin Independence Army controls the rare-earth mining corridor at Pangwa and Chipwi after eliminating the junta-aligned Kachin BGF in late 2024.
PRO-JUNTA
PRO-RESISTANCE
political recognition of NUG
Jun 22, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
India-Mongolia Strategic Partnership Deepened via Jaishankar Visit
Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar visited Ulaanbaatar June 22-23, advancing a 10-year strategic roadmap under the India-Mongolia partnership.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN-Russia Summit in Kazan Deepens Moscow's Southeast Asia Energy Ties
Nine ASEAN heads of state attended the June 17-18 ASEAN-Russia Commemorative Summit in Kazan, with several meeting Putin directly and advancing oil, gas and nuclear cooperation amid an energy shock from the Iran war.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Xi Endorses Myanmar Junta and Deepens Surveillance Cooperation
Xi formally recognized Myanmar's junta as the new government and, in a June 17 joint statement, committed both states to accelerating the Muse-Mandalay railway and Kyaukpyu Deep Sea Port plus new AI and digital-economy cooperation.
Jun 15, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Record Asian Synthetic Drug Seizures Driven by Myanmar Production
UNODC reported methamphetamine seizures of 349 tons in East and Southeast Asia in 2025, up 48 percent, and a 185 percent rise in ketamine seizures, concentrated in Myanmar's Shan State where state authority has collapsed since the 2021 coup.
Jun 15, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Global Surge in Attacks on Education in Conflict Zones
Attacks on education rose 40% over 2024-2025, with military occupation of schools nearly doubling and the highest casualties in Myanmar, Nigeria, Yemen, Cameroon, Palestine, and Ukraine.
Jun 3, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Issues National Plan to Centralize AI Training Datasets
On June 3, 2026, China's National Data Administration issued an Implementation Plan directing construction of sector-specific 'high-quality datasets' for AI training across 19 sectors and five innovation areas.
May 19, 2026
Escalating
Military
Tatmadaw Recapture of Tonzang in Chin State Offensive
On May 19, 2026, the Tatmadaw and allied Zomi Revolutionary Army recaptured Tonzang on the Tedim-Kale trade route, following the earlier recapture of Falam in April 2026.
Apr 30, 2026
Escalating
Political
Myanmar Junta Executes Cosmetic Civilian Transition Under Min Aung Hlaing
Myanmar's military junta completed a staged political makeover: a controlled multi-phase election in December 2025–January 2026, Min Aung Hlaing's rebranding as civilian president, the release of ousted President Win Myint, and the transfer of Aung San Suu Kyi from prison to house arrest.
Apr 22, 2026
Escalating
Legal
Japan Eases Lethal Weapons Export Restrictions
Japan approved a cabinet-level policy change allowing domestic defense firms to sell lethal weapons systems directly to 17 countries, marking a further rollback of postwar pacifist constraints.
Apr 15, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Australia Releases National Defense Strategy 2026
Australia's NDS 2026 formalizes a strategic posture shift — institutionalizing the Quad, expanding bilateral defense treaties with Indonesia, PNG, Japan, Singapore, and the Philippines, and explicitly designating Southeast Asia as 'vital' and Pacific Island countries as 'central' to national interests.
Apr 10, 2026
Escalating
Political
Min Aung Hlaing Inaugurated as Civilian President Amid Coordinated Legitimacy Operation
Min Aung Hlaing formally assumed the presidency in civilian dress on April 10, 2026, completing a political transition engineered since January 2025 through a layered propaganda architecture.
Apr 10, 2026
Escalating
Political
Min Aung Hlaing Sworn In as Myanmar President
Min Aung Hlaing's swearing-in as president formalizes military rule under a civilian constitutional veneer without altering the junta's coercive core.
Apr 8, 2026
Escalating
Political
Myanmar Junta Formalizes Min Aung Hlaing Presidency
Myanmar's military regime has elevated Min Aung Hlaing to the presidency after a sham election, while installing loyalist intelligence figure Ye Win Oo as commander in chief and sidelining Soe Win.
Apr 7, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
India-Bangladesh Bilateral Re-engagement Under Tarique Rahman Government
Bangladesh Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman's expected visit to New Delhi marks the first high-level bilateral engagement since the collapse of Sheikh Hasina's government and the subsequent deterioration in ties.
Apr 6, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
Indonesia Accepts Rohingya Genocide Complaint Against Min Aung Hlaing
Civil society complainants filed a criminal case in Indonesia accusing Myanmar's President Min Aung Hlaing of genocide against the Rohingya, and prosecutors reportedly accepted the filing under Indonesia's new penal code.
Apr 6, 2026
Escalating
Political
Min Aung Hlaing Installed as President Through Military-Managed Transition
Myanmar's junta converted direct military rule into a nominally civilian presidency for Min Aung Hlaing through tightly controlled parliamentary procedures, reserved military seats, and exclusion of meaningful opposition.
Apr 3, 2026
Escalating
Political
Min Aung Hlaing Assumes Presidency After Controlled Election
Myanmar's junta used a tightly managed parliamentary election and presidential appointment to shift Min Aung Hlaing from overt military rule into formal civilian office while preserving the same underlying power structure.
Apr 1, 2026
Mixed
Military
Myanmar Military Intensifies Offensives After Min Aung Hlaing Assumes Presidency
Following stage-managed elections, Myanmar's military chief Min Aung Hlaing assumed the presidency while the junta escalated airstrikes and ground offensives against a fragmented resistance controlling more than half the country.
Apr 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN Five-Point Consensus Declared Structurally Failed Ahead of 48th Summit
Five years after adoption, ASEAN's Five-Point Consensus has produced no measurable compliance from Myanmar's junta across any of its five benchmarks.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
EU-Indo-Pacific Hedging Alliance Consolidates Through SDPs and Geoeconomic Pacts
The EU has expanded a network of Security and Defense Partnerships with Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia while linking these frameworks to defense procurement access under SAFE and parallel trade agreements with India, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
Mar 31, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Min Aung Hlaing Elected Vice-President in Myanmar Civilianization Process
Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing was elected vice-president by the lower house with 247 of 260 votes, initiating a scripted transition toward a nominally civilian presidency.
Mar 13, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Issues 15th Five-Year Plan Defense Outline for PLA Modernization
China's 15th Five-Year Plan outline elevates military governance, doctrinal modernization, and military-civil fusion as core defense priorities through 2030.
Mar 12, 2026
De-escalating
Cyber
Scam-Centre Networks Displace from Cambodia into Sri Lanka
Crackdowns in Cambodia and action against Prince Group have increased pressure on regional scam-centre operators, but the networks are adapting by relocating into smaller, distributed cells in Sri Lanka.
Mar 5, 2026
Mixed
Military
Myanmar Junta Escalates Collective Punishment in Bago Region as PDF Consolidates Control
Myanmar's military junta intensified collective punishment operations in Bago Region in early 2026, deploying commercial paramotors and gyrocopters for targeted strikes on civilian infrastructure and conducting a siege of Yae Twin Kone village tract that culminated in an airstrike on a Buddhist monastery killing over 25 civilians.
Feb 1, 2026
Escalating
Political
Myanmar Junta Holds Sham Elections with Buddhist Fundamentalist Endorsement
Myanmar's military junta staged general elections in February 2026, widely condemned as illegitimate, and received public endorsement from Ashin Wirathu, founder of the 969 and Ma Ba Tha Buddhist fundamentalist movements.
Jan 31, 2026
Escalating
Political
China-Sponsored Myanmar Election Legitimizes Min Aung Hlaing
A China-funded election held over December 2025 to January 2026 installed junta chief Min Aung Hlaing in Myanmar's top civilian office, formalizing a military grip held since the 2021 coup.
Jan 29, 2026
Mixed
Institutional
Myanmar Junta Conducts Sham Elections Amid Ongoing Civil War
Myanmar's military junta staged elections that opposition forces boycotted and excluded minority populations, with the military-backed party claiming a landslide despite winning only 6% in 2020.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN Maintains Myanmar Junta Exclusion at 48th Summit
At the 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu, ASEAN leaders maintained their blacklisting of Myanmar's military leadership, refusing to seat Min Aung Hlaing's junta despite its January elections and new presidential designation.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
United States Adopts Consolidation Strategy in 2025-2026 Security Doctrine
The article describes a strategic reorientation in U.S. national security doctrine under the second Trump administration, centered on narrowing the gap between U.S. commitments and available power.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Political
South Asian Militaries Reassert Political Primacy
The piece identifies a regional pattern in which militaries in Pakistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Nepal have become pivotal political actors during crises and transitions.
Oct 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
CSIS Young Pacific Leaders Workshop on Regional Security, Port Vila
The CSIS Australia Chair convened a Young Pacific Leaders Workshop in Port Vila, Vanuatu, producing a report with policy recommendations for U.S.-Pacific engagement.
Sep 1, 2025
Escalating
Legal
U.S. Legislative Push to Counter Myanmar-Based Scam Compound Networks
The U.S. Congress introduced two bills in September 2025 — the Dismantle Foreign Scam Syndicates Act and the SCAM Act — targeting transnational scam networks operating from Myanmar and Cambodia.
Aug 15, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
Myanmar Junta Creates BRI Implementation Committee After China-Backed Rapprochement
Myanmar's military-led administration created a BRI Leading Committee for Implementation under Min Aung Hlaing after a period of visible rapprochement with Beijing.
Jul 14, 2025
Escalating
Other
Myanmar Junta Claims 11,000-Carat Mogok Ruby
Myanmar's military government publicly claimed ownership of an 11,000-carat ruby unearthed near Mogok, a contested gem-mining hub in upper Mandalay Region.
Jul 7, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Indonesia Major Defense Cooperation Partnership Signed
The United States and Indonesia signed the Major Defense Cooperation Partnership (MDCP), a qualitative upgrade from prior training-focused agreements toward co-development of defense capabilities, including subsurface autonomous maritime systems, MRO hub establishment on Indonesian soil, and expanded joint operational coordination.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
China Mobilizes Overseas Security Architecture Amid U.S. Order Decline
China's Ministry of State Security, under Minister Chen Yixin, has issued a directive to build an integrated overseas security protection system 'across the entire chain,' codifying and expanding China's capacity to protect BRI investments, nationals, and strategic assets globally.
Jul 1, 2025
Mixed
Legal
China Enacts Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress
China's Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress enters into force in July, institutionalizing Mandarin-language instruction across minority regions and accelerating the Sinicization of Tibetan, Uyghur, and Mongolian communities.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Other
China's Overseas Port Network: Systemic Economic, Political, and Security Assessment
A structured analytical assessment of China's global port footprint identifies a multi-vector influence architecture operating through commercial operators, state-backed financing, and infrastructure dependency.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
EU Concludes Four Major Free-Trade Agreements in Seven Months
The European Union concluded free-trade agreements with Australia, India, Indonesia, and Mercosur within a seven-month window, representing the most concentrated expansion of the EU's trade network in its history.
Jul 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Allies and Rivals Recalibrate Against Transactional U.S. Pressure
The article describes a broad shift in how states respond to a more openly coercive and transactional U.S. foreign policy under Trump.
Jun 10, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
ASEAN Myanmar Envoy Announces Engagement with Ethnic Armed Groups
Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro, acting as ASEAN special envoy on Myanmar, announced plans to meet ethnic armed groups — a departure from ASEAN's historically junta-centric engagement posture.
Jun 9, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Min Aung Hlaing State Visit to China
Myanmar's President Min Aung Hlaing is conducting a state visit to China, his second foreign trip since transitioning from military junta leader to nominal head of state.
Jun 3, 2025
Escalating
Legal
China Arrests U.S. Think-Tank Director Min Zin on Espionage Charges
Chinese authorities detained Min Zin, executive director of ISP-Myanmar and a U.S. citizen, at Kunming airport on June 3, charging him with espionage and endangering national security.
Jun 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
India-Myanmar State Visit: Modi Hosts Min Aung Hlaing
Myanmar junta leader Min Aung Hlaing visited New Delhi for a five-day state visit, meeting Prime Minister Modi and issuing a joint statement pledging expanded cooperation in defense, trade, technology, energy, critical minerals, and border security.
May 30, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Min Aung Hlaing State Visit to India
Myanmar's newly installed President Min Aung Hlaing arrived in India on May 30 for a five-day state visit, meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
May 24, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
ASEAN-China AI Industry Innovation Center Inaugurated in Beijing
ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn inaugurated the ASEAN-China Artificial Intelligence Industry Innovation Center in Beijing on May 24, 2025, as a flagship project under the 2026-2030 China-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.
May 20, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Putin State Visit to Beijing Amid Middle East Energy Shock
Putin arrives in Beijing for a state visit five days after Trump's own visit, seeking to deepen energy ties and revive the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline deal.
May 19, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Xi-Putin Beijing Summit: Treaty Extension and 20 Bilateral Pacts
Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin met in Beijing on May 19-20, extending the China-Russia Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation and overseeing the signing of 20 bilateral pacts spanning trade, education, and science.
May 14, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
48th ASEAN Summit: Emergency Energy Coordination and Myanmar Normalization Engagement
The 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu convened under acute pressure from the Hormuz closure, which has disrupted energy flows to a bloc importing 66 percent of its crude oil from the Middle East.
May 12, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Pledges to Raise Jimmy Lai Case at Xi Summit
President Trump stated he would raise the case of imprisoned Hong Kong publisher Jimmy Lai during his summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing, while simultaneously hedging on prospects for success and comparing Lai to a domestic political adversary.
May 11, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Thailand 'Shield' Information-Sharing System Launch Against Scam Networks
Thailand and the United States announced the 'Shield' real-time information-exchange and money-tracking system targeting human trafficking and scam call center networks operating across Southeast Asian borderlands. This followed U.S.
May 11, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN Drift Toward Myanmar Junta Re-engagement
At the 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu and in subsequent bilateral moves, regional actors signaled a shift from diplomatic quarantine toward pragmatic re-engagement with Myanmar's military government.
May 8, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN Leaders' Summit Convenes Amid Hormuz-Driven Energy Crisis
ASEAN heads of state convened in Cebu, Philippines for a reduced-format summit dominated by the regional fallout from the U.S.-Iran war and the Hormuz blockade.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Shadow-Earth-053 China-Aligned Dual-Track Cyber Espionage Campaign Disclosed
Trend Micro disclosed Shadow-Earth-053, a China-aligned cyber espionage campaign active since at least December 2024, targeting government and defense networks across Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and NATO member Poland.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
China Assumes UN Security Council Presidency with Africa-Focused Agenda
China assumed the rotating UN Security Council presidency for May 2025, with Permanent Representative Fu Cong announcing an agenda centered on revitalizing the international system, ending Middle East conflict, and supporting African stability and development.
Apr 30, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Southeast Asia Counter-Drone Capability Buildup
Multiple Southeast Asian states — Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, and Cambodia — are independently investing in counter-drone systems and doctrine following lessons from Ukraine and the Middle East.
Apr 30, 2025
Stable
Legal
Myanmar Junta Grants Second Sentence Reduction to Aung San Suu Kyi
Myanmar's military government commuted Aung San Suu Kyi's sentence for a second time in two weeks as part of a broader prisoner amnesty, reducing her remaining term to just over 18 years.
Apr 27, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Kaung Tup Warehouse Explosion in TNLA-Controlled Shan State
An accidental explosion at a mining explosives warehouse in Kaung Tup village, Shan State, killed at least 55 people and destroyed much of the village.
Apr 25, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
48th ASEAN Summit Hormuz Response and APSA Ratification Pledge
At the 48th ASEAN Summit in Cebu, eleven member states issued a joint statement calling for restoration of Strait of Hormuz transit passage and expedited ratification of the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security (APSA).
Apr 24, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Indonesia-China Expanded Cooperation Agreement for Papua
Indonesia confirmed active cooperation with China on agricultural research centres and vocational schools in Papua's Merauke district, marking a structural shift in Chinese capital allocation away from its historical concentration in Sulawesi, Java, and Sumatra.
Apr 24, 2025
Escalating
Legal
Myanmar Junta Issues Emergency Military Control Ordinances Over 60 Townships
Min Aung Hlaing has issued emergency ordinances placing 60 townships under direct military administration, bypassing civilian governance structures in conflict-affected regions.
Apr 23, 2025
Escalating
Legal
U.S. Coordinated Action Against Southeast Asian Scam Centers and Trafficking Networks
U.S. authorities — DOJ, OFAC, and State Department — announced coordinated sanctions, seizures, and enforcement actions targeting Southeast Asian fraud compounds and associated cryptocurrency networks, including seizure of a Telegram channel used for trafficking recruitment.
Apr 22, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Thailand Constitutional Court Ruling on Military Conscription Law
Thailand's Constitutional Court is scheduled to rule on the legal validity of the law governing mandatory military conscription, a system that has been in place for decades and conscripts tens of thousands of men annually.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
UK Parliament Uyghur Genocide Recognition — Five-Year Policy Gap Assessment
Five years after the UK Parliament unanimously recognized the Chinese government's genocide against Uyghurs, the British government has not aligned executive policy with that parliamentary declaration.
Apr 18, 2025
Escalating
Political
Myanmar Junta Issues New Year Amnesty After Min Aung Hlaing Presidency
Myanmar's military-led administration released thousands of prisoners, freed former president Win Myint, and reduced Aung San Suu Kyi's sentence shortly after Min Aung Hlaing assumed the presidency under a civilianized political arrangement.
Apr 18, 2025
Escalating
Political
Myanmar Junta Releases U Win Myint in Conditional New Year Amnesty
Myanmar's military authorities released ousted president U Win Myint under a New Year amnesty while keeping his convictions in force and continuing to detain Aung San Suu Kyi.
Apr 13, 2025
De-escalating
Alliance
U.S. Seeks Blanket Military Overflight Access Across Indonesia
The United States reportedly requested broad overflight access for military aircraft across Indonesian airspace, including transit and contingency-related activities, ahead of a senior defense engagement.
Apr 9, 2025
Escalating
Military
India Fortifies Siliguri Corridor and Northeast Military Logistics Network
India is expanding military basing, emergency air operations capacity, and protected transport infrastructure across the Siliguri Corridor and the Northeast to reduce vulnerability of its narrow land link to the region.
Apr 8, 2025
Mixed
Institutional
CMC Rectification Session and Post-Purge PLA Senior Command Restructuring
On April 8, Xi Jinping convened a CMC rectification training session at the National Defense University, flanked only by discipline inspection chief Zhang Shengmin after two CMC vice chairmen were placed under investigation in January 2025.
Apr 4, 2025
Escalating
Political
Min Aung Hlaing Elected Myanmar President via Controlled Parliamentary Vote
Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing was elected president by a military-dominated parliament, completing a transition from de facto military ruler to nominal civilian head of state.
Apr 3, 2025
Escalating
Political
Min Aung Hlaing Installed as Myanmar President via Junta-Controlled Parliament
On 3 April 2025, Myanmar's junta-controlled parliament voted to install Senior General Min Aung Hlaing as president, completing a staged legitimation sequence that began with sham elections in December 2025.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Political
Min Aung Hlaing Assumes Myanmar Presidency, Releases Win Myint
Min Aung Hlaing formally assumed the Myanmar presidency following a regime-orchestrated election in which major pro-democracy parties were barred from competing.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Myanmar Junta Technology Minister Signals Russian Partnership for Yatanarpon Cyber City Revival
Myanmar's junta Technology Minister Myo Thein Kyaw attended the 11th Digitalization of Industrial Russia Forum in Nizhny Novgorod, explicitly linking Russia's Neimark University 'Quantum Valley' initiative to Yatanarpon Cyber City and urging knowledge transfer for human resource development.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
India Launches Second IOS Sagar Multilateral Naval Deployment
India deployed a warship from Mumbai under the IOS Sagar initiative with 38 personnel from 16 nations embedded as an operational crew, spanning the Maldives, Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.
Apr 1, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
China-Thailand Diplomatic and Economic Engagement Intensification
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Bangkok and Krabi for high-level talks, while China's ambassador became the first foreign envoy to call on Thailand's new defense minister.
Mar 31, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Min Aung Hlaing Elected Vice-President in Myanmar Controlled Parliament
Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing was elected vice-president by the Lower House with 247 of 260 votes, initiating a choreographed transition from military uniform to civilian presidential role.
Mar 30, 2025
Mixed
Institutional
Min Aung Hlaing Relinquishes Myanmar Military Command, Positions for Presidency
Min Aung Hlaing formally transferred the commander-in-chief role to Ye Win Oo at military headquarters in Naypyitaw, retaining his position as head of the State Administration Council.
Mar 18, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Min Aung Hlaing Elected Vice-President in Myanmar Managed Transition
Myanmar's lower house elected junta chief Min Aung Hlaing as vice-president with 247 of 260 votes, initiating a formal transfer from uniform to civilian title.
Mar 12, 2025
Escalating
Legal
China Enacts Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law
The National People's Congress passed the Ethnic Unity and Progress Promotion Law in March 2025, effective July 1, converting the CCP's assimilationist ethnic policy from discretionary guidance into legally binding statutory obligations with enforcement mechanisms and criminal penalties.
Mar 8, 2025
Escalating
Legal
China Enacts Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress
The National People's Congress passed the Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress, converting Xi Jinping's ethnic policy slogan into binding state law.
Mar 2, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
AA Supreme Commander Twan Mrat Naing Grants First Foreign Correspondent Interview, Outlining Governance and Negotiation Posture
Arakan Army Supreme Commander Twan Mrat Naing granted his first-ever one-on-one interview to a foreign correspondent, publicly articulating the AA's negotiating red lines, governance consolidation trajectory, and regional diplomatic posture.
Feb 4, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Min Aung Hlaing Elected Vice President Ahead of Presidential Confirmation
Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing received 247 of 260 lower house votes to become vice president, the penultimate step before a parliament-wide presidential vote expected this week.
Jan 29, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
ICJ Genocide Case Against Myanmar Enters Final Deliberation Phase
The ICJ concluded public hearings on the merits of The Gambia's genocide case against Myanmar (January 12–29, 2025) and entered final deliberation. Eleven states have intervened.
Jan 20, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Administration Dismantles U.S. Democracy-Support Infrastructure in Myanmar, Pivots to Junta Engagement
The Trump administration has systematically dismantled U.S. democracy-promotion and humanitarian programs in Myanmar — shuttering USAID operations, ending refugee resettlement, silencing VOA and Radio Free Asia, and removing temporary protected status for Myanmar nationals — while signaling openness to engagement with the military junta.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Other
US-China Economic and Security Review Commission 2025 Report Release
The 2025 USCC annual report to Congress concludes that China has achieved leadership positions across multiple advanced technology sectors previously assumed to be US-dominated, including EVs, solar manufacturing, quantum computing pathways, and pharmaceutical supply chains.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN Summit Fails to Reach Energy Cooperation Agreement
An ASEAN summit dominated by energy security discussions produced no binding collective action despite the Iran war's disruption of regional energy supplies.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Forced Displacement of CHT Ethnic Minorities from Bangladesh to Myanmar
Non-Muslim ethnic minorities from Bangladesh's Chittagong Hill Tracts — including Marma, Bawm, and Chakma communities — have been driven into Myanmar's Rakhine and Chin States over multiple decades through a combination of Bangladesh army operations, Muslim settler encroachment backed by political actors, and armed conflict with the Kuki Chin National Front.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China Fails to Convert U.S. Geostrategic Retreat into Durable Influence Gains
Since January 2025, Trump administration policies have created a structural vacuum in U.S. global leadership, theoretically advantaging China.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Political
McCaul Departure from House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairmanship
Congressman Michael McCaul, Chairman Emeritus of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is departing Congress after two decades as a leading voice on U.S. foreign policy.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
China Digital Silk Road Deepens Developing-World Engagement Despite Western Pressure
China's Digital Silk Road continues to expand across the developing world as recipient governments — including Ethiopia, Indonesia, and the UAE — deepen technology integration despite sustained Western pressure to disengage.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Japan Expands Pacific Security Assistance Framework Under FOIP
Japan is incrementally restructuring its Pacific engagement by linking development, maritime capacity building, and new security assistance tools to its broader Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
United States Embeds Anti-China Alignment Clauses in Bilateral Trade Deals
The United States has negotiated a series of bilateral trade agreements that include economic-security provisions requiring partner states to align trade policy more closely with Washington and away from China.
Dec 1, 2024
De-escalating
Military
Myanmar Landmine Crisis Reaches Record Casualty Levels in Karenni State
Myanmar recorded 2,029 landmine casualties in 2024, the highest of any country globally for the second consecutive year, according to Landmine Monitor.
Nov 29, 2024
De-escalating
Military
KIA Dissolution of Kachin BGF and Kachin State Special Region-1
Between September and November 2024, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) conducted a sustained offensive that destroyed all three battalions of the Kachin Border Guard Force (BGF), captured their unit headquarters, and forced warlord Zahkung Ting Ying to flee to China.
May 2, 2024
Mixed
Military
Htan Shauk Khan Village Destruction and Civilian Casualties, Rakhine State
During the Arakan Army's advance on Buthidaung Township, Myanmar military forces conducted airstrikes and artillery shelling on Htan Shauk Khan village, a Rohingya-inhabited settlement that had been used as a staging base by ARSA-aligned recruits and Myanmar military personnel.
Mar 22, 2024
De-escalating
Military
Rival Myanmar Armed Group Kills Three Indian Nationals After Camp Overrun in Chin State
A rival armed outfit aligned with Myanmar's military overran a People's Defense Army camp in Chin State and allegedly tortured and executed three detained Indian nationals.
Oct 27, 2023
De-escalating
Military
Myanmar Junta Loses Territorial Control to Resistance Offensives
Three years after the 2021 coup, momentum has shifted to Myanmar's resistance, with the Brotherhood Alliance's Operation 1027 from October 2023 overrunning military bases, border crossings, and regional towns in northern Shan State.
Apr 22, 2022
Escalating
Alliance
Cameroon Signs New Military Cooperation Agreement with Russia
Cameroon concluded a new military cooperation agreement with Russia during a visit by Defence Minister Joseph Beti Assomo to Moscow.
Feb 1, 2021
De-escalating
Political
Myanmar Military Coup Ends NLD Economic Reform Program
The February 2021 military coup returned Myanmar to junta rule and terminated the NLD government's 2016-2021 economic reform program.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Bangladesh Institutionalizes Its China Partnership
PM Rahman's visit to China continued a strikingly consistent Bangladesh-China policy across three governments, formalizing strategic dialogue, a 2+2 mechanism and support for Bangladesh's BRICS and SCO ambitions.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
US Defense Industrial Base Wartime Footing Progress Assessment
The US Pentagon, having declared a wartime industrial footing goal in November 2025, has made measurable progress in attracting new and nontraditional defense firms, building munitions magazine depth through a high-low mix strategy, investing in rare earth mine-to-magnet supply chains outside Chinese control, and driving foreign military sales.
Date unknown
Stable
Military
Myanmar Civil War Toll Nears 100,000 Amid Rakhine Atrocity Allegations
ACLED data indicates the cumulative death toll from Myanmar's civil war is approaching 100,000 as fighting hardens into a stalemate.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Myanmar Fans Boycott FIFA Broadcasts Over Junta-Linked Telecom Mytel
FIFA awarded Myanmar World Cup broadcast rights to Mytel, a telecom jointly owned by the military's conglomerate and Vietnam's defense ministry and already under U.S. sanctions, prompting a popular boycott and widespread use of VPNs and overseas streaming.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
CCP Recalibrates Local Cadre Performance Metrics
The Chinese Communist Party launched a 'correct view of performance' campaign, running February through July, to redefine how local officials are evaluated, moving away from GDP growth and infrastructure toward political loyalty, social welfare, and disciplined execution.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
India's Ceasefire Policy Deadlocks Manipur Conflict
An analytical account assesses how India's strategy of indefinitely extending ceasefires with northeastern rebel groups has entrenched rather than resolved the three-year Manipur conflict between Meitei, Kuki-Zo, and Naga communities.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Myanmar Junta Escalates Air Campaign as Western Backing for Rebels Stays Absent
Five years after the coup, Myanmar's military sustains an intensifying campaign of airstrikes, drones, gyrocopters and village burnings against outgunned resistance forces in Anyar, while the West withholds arms and the junta draws weapons from Russia and China.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Myanmar Military Sustains Devastating Air Campaign Against Anyar Resistance
Five years after the 2021 coup, the Myanmar military sustains a punishing campaign of airstrikes, drone attacks and village burnings against outgunned rebels in Anyar, central Myanmar.
Date unknown
Stable
Institutional
ASEAN Refugee Responsibility-Sharing Debate
Myanmar's civil war and the Rohingya crisis have generated cross-border displacement that ASEAN's national-response model cannot manage, exposing a structural weakness in the bloc's regional architecture.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Laos Debt Distress and Dependence on Chinese Deferrals
Laos's foreign-exchange position has become structurally hostage to China, which holds roughly $700 million in annual debt service that it has repeatedly deferred to keep Vientiane solvent.
Date unknown
Mixed
Sanctions
Southeast Asia Hedges Against Chinese Development Finance Dependence
The analysis maps how Southeast Asian states manage exposure to Chinese development finance, ranging from constrained dependence (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar) to restrained diversification (Vietnam, Philippines) and opportunistic hedging (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand).
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Bangladesh to Fence Border After Arakan Army Takes Rakhine Frontier
Bangladesh announced plans to fence parts of its 270-kilometer border with Myanmar after the Arakan Army's December 2024 capture of Maungdaw left it in de facto control of northern Rakhine's frontier.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN-Russia Kazan Summit Deepens Energy and Security Cooperation
Leaders from 10 of ASEAN's 11 member states met Russia in Kazan, adopting the Kazan Declaration 2026 and a 2026-2030 Comprehensive Plan of Action pledging expanded trade, energy, food, and security cooperation.
Date unknown
Stable
Military
Myanmar Records World's Highest Landmine Casualties in 2025
Myanmar recorded the world's highest antipersonnel landmine casualties in 2025 at 2,029, nearly double the prior year, as the military and, increasingly, resistance armed groups mined bases, withdrawal routes, and civilian areas.
Date unknown
Stable
Alliance
VTMS Multilateral Power-Trading Pilot Agreement
Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore agreed in December to advance a sub-regional power-trading pilot (VTMS), building on the LTMS-PIP and a Joint Development Agreement to route Vietnamese clean electricity by subsea cable to Malaysia and onward to Singapore.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Disengagement Reshapes Global Governance Architecture
The piece frames a structural erosion of the U.S.-anchored multilateral order as major powers pursue selective engagement, disengagement, or active dismantling of legacy institutions.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Central Asia Multi-Alignment Leverage Consolidation
Central Asian states are converting geographic centrality into structural leverage as maritime-trade disruption from the Iran-U.S. war and Russia's estrangement from G7 economies narrow viable logistics options for neighboring powers.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
EU Supply-Chain Geopolitical Exposure Assessment: Emerging-Risk Import Concentration
A structured analytical assessment finds that 12.2 percent of EU imports — worth approximately $341 billion in 2024 — qualify as 'emerging-risk' products, where supplier concentration has deepened since 2019 without yet triggering import vulnerability signals.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Collapse of Performative International Law Compliance Among Major Powers
The article diagnoses a structural inflection point in which the United States, Russia, and China have abandoned even the performative pretense of compliance with international law — a shift from strategic hypocrisy to open rejection.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Sri Lanka Cybercriminal Network Displacement and Arrests
Sri Lankan authorities have arrested more than 1,000 foreign nationals in 2025 in connection with suspected cyberscam operations, with raids targeting coastal tourist areas, apartment blocks near Colombo, and properties in the Southern Province.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Cambodia-Thailand Border Conflict Threatens ASEAN Cohesion
Cambodia and Thailand engaged in two bouts of open armed conflict in 2024 — five days in July and nearly three weeks in December — driven by contested colonial borders, transnational criminal entanglement, and nationalist escalation.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Global Middle-Power Military AI Procurement Race
Middle powers are actively procuring and integrating AI into military operations, choosing among three pathways: frontier closed-weight models from U.S. labs, open-weight general-purpose models, or narrow tactical AI.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
China's Structural Embeddedness in Latin American Strategic Sectors
Over two decades, China has embedded itself into Latin America's ports, telecommunications networks, energy systems, critical mineral supply chains, and digital infrastructure — creating durable structural leverage that does not depend on military presence.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Analytical Framing: Emergence of the Bipolar Trap in U.S.-China Rivalry
This analytical piece argues that the U.S.-China rivalry is progressively narrowing the structural space available to third-party states, forcing alignment choices that erode strategic autonomy.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Southeast Asia Defence Partnership Realignment: Middle Power Surge and US-China Divergence (2017–2024)
Between 2017 and 2024, Southeast Asian countries signed a surge of new defence agreements, with Quad members Australia, India, and Japan collectively signing 38 new agreements versus 22 combined for the US and China.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Proposal for 'Pacific Eyes' South Pacific Intelligence Alliance
A formal analytical proposal advocates establishing a 'Pacific Eyes' intelligence-sharing framework among Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, and Fiji, modeled on Five Eyes architecture but scoped to Pacific Island realities.
Date unknown
Mixed
Political
Frank Garcia Confirmed as U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs
After more than a year of vacancy, Frank Garcia was confirmed by the Senate as Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, the most senior U.S. diplomatic post for the continent.
Date unknown
Unclear
Political
Kawthoolei Army Declares Independent Republic Under Gen. Nerdah Bo Mya
Gen. Nerdah Bo Mya, leader of the Kawthoolei Army operating in Karen State, has declared an independent Republic of Kawthoolei
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
China MPS Builds Global Police Cooperation Network via 205 Security Agreements (2006–2025)
China's Ministry of Public Security has signed at least 205 bilateral and multilateral policing and security cooperation agreements with 74 countries since 2006, with activity peaks in 2010, 2016–2018, and post-2024.
Date unknown
Mixed
Political
Myanmar Junta Convenes Parliament, Appoints Min Aung Hlaing as President
Myanmar's military-controlled parliament convened for the first time in five years, formalizing Min Aung Hlaing's appointment as president.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Legal
ICJ Genocide Deliberations Against Myanmar Junta Generals
The International Court of Justice is deliberating on genocide allegations against senior Myanmar junta generals related to atrocities committed against the Rohingya. A verdict is expected within approximately three months.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
India-Africa Engagement Gap Assessment
A policy-analytical report finds that India remains structurally underrepresented in Africa despite possessing comparative advantages including diaspora networks, post-colonial solidarity, and historical ties.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
Myanmar Junta Reconvenes Parliament, Appoints Min Aung Hlaing as President
Myanmar's military-controlled parliament convened for the first time in five years, with former commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing formally appointed as president.
War / Asia-Pacific
Myanmar's civil war nears 100,000 dead as the Arakan Army consolidates Rakhine and Bangladesh pivots toward China and Malaysia.
War / Asia-Pacific
Pakistan strikes Afghan provinces after Karachi paramilitary attack as the insurgency's geographic reach and cross-border dynamics both escalate.