Sahel Insurgency

France-Africa Forward Summit Convenes in Nairobi

France convened the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi — its first such summit in an Anglophone country — with over 30 African heads of state and government, marking a structural reorientation of French Africa policy.

Macron Nairobi Africa Summit — Security-Minerals Partnership Pitch

President Macron convened a major Africa summit in Nairobi attended by over 30 heads of state and 4,000 delegates, using the platform to articulate a new French engagement model: demand-driven security assistance in exchange for access to critical minerals and rare earths, explicitly contrasted with Chinese dependency structures.

France Africa Forward Summit, Nairobi

France convenes approximately 20 African heads of state and hundreds of business leaders in Nairobi for the Africa Forward summit, marking a structural reorientation of French Africa policy away from francophone Sahel states toward anglophone and southern African partners.

Russia's Coercive Recruitment of African Labor Migrants into Military Service

Russia has systematically recruited African men — primarily from Sub-Saharan Africa — through deceptive labor migration channels, coercing them into signing military contracts upon arrival.

Wadagni Elected President of Benin with 94.27% of Vote

Romuald Wadagni won Benin's presidential election with 94.27% of the vote, marking the fifth democratic transfer of power since 1990 and the first under a significantly restructured constitutional framework.

JNIM-Tuareg Coordinated Offensive Forces Africa Corps Withdrawal from Kidal

On April 25-26, JNIM and Azawad Liberation Front forces launched the largest coordinated insurgent-separatist offensive in Mali since 2012, killing Defense Minister General Sadio Camara and forcing Russia's Africa Corps to withdraw from Kidal — a city Wagner had captured in November 2023.

JNIM-FLA Coalition Attacks Expose Mali Junta and Russian Force Limitations

Coordinated jihadist and separatist forces launched major attacks on Malian territory, including in Kidal, where Russian-backed Malian forces were outmatched despite advance warning.

Russia Recruits African Nationals Under False Pretenses for Ukraine Frontline

Russia is systematically recruiting young African men — primarily from Kenya and other sub-Saharan African countries — through deceptive labor contracts, then coercing them into frontline military service in Ukraine.

Coordinated Jihadist-Insurgent Attack Routs Mali Junta Forces

In late April 2025, a coordinated multi-city assault by northern ethnic insurgents allied with an al-Qaeda-affiliated group inflicted a severe military defeat on Mali's junta government.

Russia's Fraudulent African Military Recruitment Network Exposed

A decentralized network of recruiters operating across at least nine African countries — including Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania, Zambia, Togo, Botswana, and Mali — has been funneling economically vulnerable young men into Russian military service under false pretenses of civilian employment.

Lakurawa Consolidates Coercive Governance in Northwest Nigeria Borderlands

Lakurawa has shifted from a tolerated anti-banditry presence in Sokoto and Kebbi states into a coercive parallel governance actor, enforcing Islamic behavioral codes, extracting resources through taxation and confiscation, and neutralizing community vigilantes.

JNIM-FLA Coordinated Offensive Decapitates Mali Junta Leadership and Forces Russian Withdrawal from Kidal

A large-scale coordinated offensive by JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) struck multiple Malian cities on April 25, killing Defense Minister General Sadio Camara and seriously wounding the head of state security.

Ukraine Emerges as Core European Security Partner

Ukraine has shifted from a dependent aid recipient to an active security exporter, providing military training to European partners, deploying anti-drone specialists to Gulf states, and signing long-term security agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.

JNIM-Tuareg Coordinated Assault on Mali Military Government

Simultaneous attacks by JNIM (al-Qaeda-linked) and Tuareg separatist rebels killed Mali's defence minister, seized military bases and towns in the northern Sahara fringe, and declared a total blockade of Bamako.

JNIM Siege of Bamako and Africa Corps Retreat from Kidal

JNIM forces besieged Bamako, attacked the international airport, killed Mali's defense minister Gen. Sadio Camara in a vehicle-borne IED strike on his home, and forced Africa Corps to withdraw from Kidal — a strategic mineral-rich northern town.

JNIM Blockade of Bamako and Nationwide Insurgent Offensive

JNIM fighters imposed a partial blockade on Bamako, closing at least three of six major entry routes and stranding civilians, traders, and lorry drivers on key highways.

JNIM-FLA Coordinated Multi-City Attack on Mali

JNIM and the Tuareg FLA launched simultaneous strikes across Mali on 25-26 April 2025, targeting sites from Kidal in the far north to Kati near Bamako — a 1,500 km operational spread.

Tsamiya-Kamba Corridor Reopening Between Nigeria, Niger, and Benin

Nigeria officially reopened the Tsamiya-Kamba border corridor in Kebbi State, restoring cross-border movement of goods and people between Nigeria, Niger, and Benin after seven years of closure.

Armed Attack on Military-Escorted Civilian Convoy in Binduri, Northern Ghana

Unidentified assailants attacked a Ghana Armed Forces-escorted convoy of approximately 140 civilians traveling the Bawku-Bolgatanga route, killing three civilians and wounding one. The military repelled the attack, killing seven assailants and arresting ten suspects.

Jihadist-Tuareg Offensive Kills Mali Defence Minister; Africa Corps Withdraws from Kidal

A large-scale coordinated offensive by jihadist and Tuareg separatist forces struck multiple locations across Mali, killing Defence Minister Sadio Camara and penetrating to within 20km of Bamako.

Tuareg-JNIM Recapture of Kidal from Mali Junta Forces

Tuareg rebel forces (CSP-PSD) and JNIM jihadist fighters jointly recaptured Kidal, the historic northern Malian bastion, from the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and their Russian Africa Corps partners.

Ukraine Drone Diplomacy Campaign Across Middle East and Europe

Ukraine has signed a series of defence and drone cooperation agreements with Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Turkey, Syria, and Azerbaijan within a compressed diplomatic window.

Burkina Faso Nationalises Sofitex Cotton Company

Burkina Faso's junta formalised full state ownership of Sofitex on 16 April 2025, purchasing the remaining 5.5% private stake for CFA75bn (~$155.5m).

Assassination of Mali Defence Minister Sadio Camara by JNIM Car Bomb

JNIM executed a suicide car bomb attack on the Kati residence of Mali Defence Minister Sadio Camara, killing him. Kati is the military garrison town adjacent to Bamako and the symbolic heart of junta power.

Coordinated Multi-City Armed Assault on Mali Security Infrastructure

Armed groups launched simultaneous attacks across at least three Malian cities — Bamako, Gao, and Sevare — targeting the Kati military base, a strategically significant installation outside the capital.

Explosions and Gunfire Near Kati Military Base, Bamako

Two explosions and sustained gunfire were reported near Kati, Mali's principal military base outside Bamako, with soldiers deploying to block surrounding roads. No group claimed responsibility, leaving the nature of the incident — attack, internal incident, or training — unconfirmed.

Wagner-GRU Balkan Recruitment Network Exposed via Savičić Profile

Investigative reporting confirms that Davor Savičić, a Bosnian Serb Wagner colonel with GRU ties, operates a structured recruitment pipeline funneling ethnic Serbs from Bosnia, Serbia, and Montenegro into Russian forces in Ukraine.

Wadagni Election Opens Niger-Benin Diplomatic Reset Window

Romuald Wadagni's election as Benin's president on 12 April 2025 creates a potential inflection point in the deeply strained Niger-Benin relationship, which has been marked by border closures, diplomatic expulsions, mutual accusations, and pipeline weaponisation since Niger's 2023 coup.

Lake Chad Basin Climate-Conflict Displacement Compounding Crisis

Climate disasters have surpassed armed conflict as the primary driver of displacement in the Lake Chad Basin, while the two stressors are increasingly compounding each other.

South Africa Arrests Kemi Seba in Pretoria

South African authorities detained Kemi Seba in Pretoria for allegedly overstaying his visa, while Benin reportedly seeks him for more serious offenses.

United States Reengages Sahel Juntas Through Counterterrorism Outreach

US officials are intensifying outreach to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso after prior security cutoffs following military coups, with Congress now probing the administration's revised Africa counterterrorism approach.

Cameroon Signs New Military Cooperation Agreement with Russia

Cameroon concluded a new military cooperation agreement with Russia during a visit by Defence Minister Joseph Beti Assomo to Moscow. The move indicates Yaounde's willingness to deepen defense ties with Moscow at a moment of acute Russian international isolation over Ukraine.

Russia's African Patronage Credibility Erodes After Failure to Deliver Security and Economic Promises

The piece describes a cumulative erosion of Russia's influence among African partners as Moscow fails to match anti-Western rhetoric with concrete protection, trade expansion, or soft-power delivery.

Boko Haram Sadiku Wing Expands Operations into Borgu-Kainji Axis

The Sadiku wing of JAS has escalated attacks across the Borgu-Kainji corridor, including mass killings, kidnappings and roadside bombings, while Nigerian responses remain localized and reactive.

South Africa Arrests Kemi Seba for Extradition to Benin

South African authorities detained Kemi Seba, who is wanted by Benin on charges tied to support for a failed coup attempt against President Patrice Talon.

Repeated Attacks Disrupt China-Backed Niger-Benin Pipeline

Repeated rebel attacks on the CNPC-operated Niger-Benin pipeline, alongside broader insecurity around Niamey, have turned a flagship Chinese investment into a liability.

Senegal Disrupts Jihadist WhatsApp Propaganda Networks in Tambacounda

Senegalese authorities arrested individuals tied to WhatsApp-based dissemination of jihadist propaganda in the Tambacounda-Kidira border zone, including content linked to Katiba Macina and the wider JNIM ecosystem.

Ukraine Establishes Covert Military Foothold in Western Libya

Reporting indicates Ukraine has deployed personnel to western Libya in coordination with the Tripoli-based government, gaining access to bases in Misrata and near Mellitah for drone operations.

HRW Documents Mass Civilian Killings by Burkina Faso Forces, VDP, and JNIM

Human Rights Watch documented at least 1,837 civilian deaths in Burkina Faso between January 2023 and August 2025 attributed to the army, the VDP auxiliaries, and JNIM.

Africa Politology Sahel Influence Campaign Exposed

Leaked documents from Africa Politology — a Russian influence network originally established by Wagner's Prigozhin and later absorbed by Russian foreign intelligence — detail a coordinated multi-year campaign to entrench Russian influence across the Sahel and adjacent states.

Russia's Company Network Conducts Paid Disinformation Placement Across West African Media

A Russian influence network ('the Company'), originally founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin and subsequently absorbed by Russia's SVR foreign intelligence service, systematically placed nearly 650 pro-Russian, anti-French, anti-Ukrainian articles across 35 West African media outlets from June to October 2024.

Traore Publicly Repudiates Democracy, Consolidates Permanent Authoritarian Rule

Burkina Faso's junta leader Ibrahim Traore explicitly stated that democracy is incompatible with his country's future, eliminating ambiguity about the transitional nature of military rule.

HRW Documents Mass Civilian Killings by Burkina Faso Junta Forces and JNIM

HRW's report quantifies the structural failure of Burkina Faso's junta-led counter-insurgency: state forces and their VDP auxiliaries killed more civilians (1,255) than the jihadist enemy (582) across the same period, inverting the security mandate.

JNIM Commander 'Saad' Defects to ISGS with Fighter Contingent

JNIM commander 'Saad,' who spearheaded the group's expansion into eastern Burkina Faso, defected to rival ISGS with several dozen fighters following a reported JNIM truce with the Beninese government.

Algeria Leverages Iran Conflict to Renegotiate European Gas Contracts

Algeria is using disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supply chains — particularly the Iranian strike on Qatari LNG plants — to renegotiate gas export prices with Italy and Spain, seeking a 15–20 percent increase.

Gulf Dual Chokepoint Crisis Cascades into North Africa and Sahel

Simultaneous effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea corridor — triggered by US-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation including Houthi escalation — has reconfigured global trade flows at structural scale.

ISSP Emerges as Transnational External Operations Hub

Islamic State Sahel Province has transitioned from a localized insurgency to a structured external operations platform, integrating into IS global command in 2022 and expanding networks into Morocco, Spain, France, Austria, and beyond.

Mass Civilian Killings in Niger's Tahoua Region

Armed assailants on motorbikes attacked three isolated villages in the Birni N'Koni department of Niger's Tahoua region, killing 30 civilians and seizing approximately 500 head of livestock before withdrawing into Nigeria.

Wagner Information Network Crackdown and Expulsion in Chad

Chadian authorities arrested four Wagner-linked Russian operatives — including Maxim Shugaley and Evgeny Tsarev — along with several local journalists after the operatives attempted to establish influence infrastructure in N'Djamena, including a 'Russian House' cultural center.

Russia's Sahel Security Project Stalls Amid Battlefield Losses and Rival Encroachment

Russia's five-year Sahel expansion — anchored by Wagner/Africa Corps deployments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — is entering a phase of strategic retrenchment.