Escalating / Eurasia
Russia-Ukraine War
Putin publicly concedes fuel shortages as Ukraine's deep-strike campaign reaches refineries and Crimea's supply lines.
Pro-Junta Counter Insurgency
Pro-Jihadist
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
War
The Sahel Insurgency began in 2012, when a coup in Mali and a Tuareg rebellion collapsed state control of the north and let al-Qaeda-linked fighters seize Timbuktu and Gao.
France pushed them out in 2013 but never destroyed the networks, which spread across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Today two jihadist blocs dominate the countryside: JNIM, the al-Qaeda affiliate, and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara. A wave of coups between 2020 and 2023 brought military juntas to power in all three capitals. They expelled French forces and brought in Russian mercenaries, first Wagner and now Africa Corps. The juntas control the cities.
The jihadists run the roads between them.
A JNIM-Tuareg coalition struck Bamako's airport and killed Mali's defense minister in June 2026, the largest coordinated jihadist attack in the Sahel in over a decade and a direct assault on the junta's last defensible legitimacy claim.
That strike follows JNIM and FLA's April 2026 recapture of Kidal, Tessalit, and Aguelhok, which forced Africa Corps into a capital-perimeter role it was never contracted to fill and stripped Bamako and Moscow of their primary narrative victory.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Africa Corps' contraction to capital-perimeter protection around Bamako is a structural defeat: Russia abandoned Kidal, a city it captured in November 2023, under fire.
The insurgency now operates on two simultaneous geographic axes: northward urban seizure in Mali and southward capital-infrastructure pressure in Niger, with Niamey's airport struck twice in 2026 alone.
Every multilateral brake that historically capped Sahel escalation has been removed in parallel: MINUSMA is gone, AFRICOM has cut its regional posture by 75%, US peacekeeping arrears total $1.8 billion.
JNIM blockaded Mali's Timbuktu for months, causing a humanitarian crisis; despite Wagner/Africa Corps support, junta forces failed to reverse insurgent territorial gains, leaving large rural areas under de facto jihadist governance across the Sahel.
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formalized the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) with a mutual defense pact and withdrew from ECOWAS; JNIM and ISGS continued expanding territorial control, besieging provincial capitals and cutting key supply routes across all three countries.
France ended Operation Barkhane after nearly a decade and was expelled from Mali; the Malian junta invited Wagner Group mercenaries as replacements, a model subsequently adopted by Burkina Faso and Niger, shifting the conflict's external backing from Western to Russian.
Mali suffered its first coup in August 2020, followed by a second in May 2021; Burkina Faso experienced two coups in 2022, and Niger's elected president Bazoum was overthrown in July 2023, producing three military juntas hostile to Western presence across the region.
Key jihadist factions — Ansar Dine, AQIM's Sahara branch, and Al-Mourabitoun — merged to form JNIM, creating a unified al-Qaeda affiliate; the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) simultaneously expanded as a rival force, fracturing the insurgency into two competing jihadist blocs.
Violence spread into central Mali and neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger as jihadist factions exploited inter-communal tensions; civilian casualties and displacement began rising sharply across all three countries.
France launched Operation Serval, deploying thousands of troops to halt the jihadist advance; the intervention recaptured northern cities but failed to eliminate insurgent networks, which dispersed into the broader Sahel.
A military coup in Mali and a Tuareg rebel offensive (MNLA) collapsed state control of the north; jihadist groups, including AQIM-linked factions, rapidly seized the power vacuum and occupied major northern cities including Timbuktu and Gao.
Africa Corps (Wagner successor): Russian deniable contractor force contracted from forward combat in northern Mali to capital-perimeter protection around.
Azawad Liberation Front (FLA): Tuareg separatist force in operational alliance with JNIM.
ISGS/Islamic State Sahel Province: IS franchise conducting repeated infrastructure strikes on Niamey's airport and probing Labbezanga and Menaka.
VDP auxiliaries: Burkina Faso's civilian self-defense militia extending junta coercive reach into ungoverned rural areas while generating documented atrocity.
Lakurawa: IS-aligned coercive governance actor consolidating parallel authority in Nigeria's Sokoto-Kebbi borderlands.
PRO-JUNTA/COUNTER-INSURGENCY
PRO-JIHADIST
Jun 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Escalating Mali Conflict and Civilian Abuses
A Human Rights Watch report documented killings and abuses by JNIM, the Malian army and its Russian Africa Corps partners as violence escalated in 2026.
Jun 27, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Burkina Faso Severs Diplomatic Relations with France
Burkina Faso's military government formally severed diplomatic ties with France, its former colonial ruler, citing French support for subversive networks and interference in sovereignty — charges France denies.
Jun 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Second 2026 Jihadist Attack on Niamey Airport
Gunmen struck Niamey's airport, which hosts most of Niger's military aircraft and drones plus Russian and Italian forces, in the second such attack of 2026.
Jun 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Gunfire and Explosions at Niamey Airport
Sustained gunfire and explosions hit Niamey's airport for roughly an hour, the second attack on the facility in 2026. The airport hosts Niger's military aircraft
May 16, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Joint US-Nigeria Strike Kills ISWAP Commander Al-Minuki, Triggering Succession Crisis
A joint US-Nigeria special forces and airstrike operation killed ISWAP's most senior first-generation commander, Abu Bilal Al-Minuki, between midnight and 4 a.m. on May 16, 2026, in the Lake Chad Basin.
May 15, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Nigeria Joint Operation Kills ISWAP Senior Commander al-Minuki
U.S. and Nigerian forces conducted a joint operation on May 15, 2026, killing Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, assessed as head of the Islamic State's General Directorate of Provinces and a senior ISWAP leader.
May 14, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
AFRICOM Commander Congressional Testimony on Africa Counter-Terrorism Posture FY2027
AFRICOM Commander General Dagvin Anderson testified before both the Senate and House Armed Services Committees in May 2026, publicly documenting a structural intelligence gap in the Sahel caused by basing losses, allied withdrawals, and coup-driven diplomatic ruptures.
Apr 25, 2026
Escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Coordinated Offensive on Kidal, Northern Mali
JNIM and the Tuareg-led Front for the Liberation of Azawad launched coordinated operations around Kidal and other strategic locations in northern Mali beginning April 25, 2026, reportedly contesting or capturing the city.
Apr 25, 2026
Escalating
Military
JNIM Coordinated Attacks and Bamako Blockade — April 2026
JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front launched coordinated strikes on Kati, Mopti, Sévaré, Gao, and Bamako on 25 April 2026, killing Mali's Defence Minister and triggering a blockade of western routes into the capital.
Apr 25, 2026
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Coordinated Offensive Decapitates Mali Junta Leadership and Forces Russian Withdrawal from Kidal
A large-scale coordinated offensive by JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) struck multiple Malian cities on April 25, killing Defense Minister General Sadio Camara and seriously wounding the head of state security.
Apr 20, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
United States Reengages Sahel Juntas Through Counterterrorism Outreach
US officials are intensifying outreach to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso after prior security cutoffs following military coups, with Congress now probing the administration's revised Africa counterterrorism approach.
Apr 20, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Boko Haram Sadiku Wing Expands Operations into Borgu-Kainji Axis
The Sadiku wing of JAS has escalated attacks across the Borgu-Kainji corridor, including mass killings, kidnappings and roadside bombings, while Nigerian responses remain localized and reactive.
Apr 18, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
US Third-Country Deportation Network Expansion Across Africa
The US has constructed a web of secretive bilateral migration agreements with over a dozen African states, coercing acceptance of third-country deportees through threats of tariffs, visa restrictions, and aid withdrawal, while offering mineral access deals and security cooperation as inducements.
Apr 3, 2026
Mixed
Military
Ukraine Establishes Covert Military Foothold in Western Libya
Reporting indicates Ukraine has deployed personnel to western Libya in coordination with the Tripoli-based government, gaining access to bases in Misrata and near Mellitah for drone operations.
Apr 2, 2026
De-escalating
Other
HRW Documents Mass Civilian Killings by Burkina Faso Junta Forces and JNIM
HRW's report quantifies the structural failure of Burkina Faso's junta-led counter-insurgency: state forces and their VDP auxiliaries killed more civilians (1,255) than the jihadist enemy (582) across the same period, inverting the security mandate.
Apr 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
JNIM Forces Recapture Kidal, Tessalit, and Aguelhok from Malian-Russian Forces
Reports emerging in April 2026 indicate that Malian Armed Forces and Russian Africa Corps operatives lost effective control of Kidal, Tessalit, and Aguelhok within approximately two weeks.
Mar 31, 2026
De-escalating
Other
ISSP Emerges as Transnational External Operations Hub
Islamic State Sahel Province has transitioned from a localized insurgency to a structured external operations platform, integrating into IS global command in 2022 and expanding networks into Morocco, Spain, France, Austria, and beyond.
Mar 25, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Russia's Sahel Security Project Stalls Amid Battlefield Losses and Rival Encroachment
Russia's five-year Sahel expansion — anchored by Wagner/Africa Corps deployments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — is entering a phase of strategic retrenchment.
Mar 1, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Russia's African Patronage Credibility Erodes After Failure to Deliver Security and Economic Promises
The piece describes a cumulative erosion of Russia's influence among African partners as Moscow fails to match anti-Western rhetoric with concrete protection, trade expansion, or soft-power delivery.
Mar 1, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Africa Politology Sahel Influence Campaign Exposed
Leaked documents from Africa Politology — a Russian influence network originally established by Wagner's Prigozhin and later absorbed by Russian foreign intelligence — detail a coordinated multi-year campaign to entrench Russian influence across the Sahel and adjacent states.
Feb 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Lakurawa Consolidates Coercive Governance in Northwest Nigeria Borderlands
Lakurawa has shifted from a tolerated anti-banditry presence in Sokoto and Kebbi states into a coercive parallel governance actor, enforcing Islamic behavioral codes, extracting resources through taxation and confiscation, and neutralizing community vigilantes.
Feb 19, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Russia Deepens Military and Diplomatic Engagement with Post-Coup Madagascar
Following Madagascar's October 2025 military coup, Russia has expanded its footprint on the island through weapons transfers, military training, and a formal Moscow summit between President Putin and interim President Randrianirina in February 2026.
Feb 15, 2026
Mixed
Other
JNIM Commander 'Saad' Defects to ISGS with Fighter Contingent
JNIM commander 'Saad,' who spearheaded the group's expansion into eastern Burkina Faso, defected to rival ISGS with several dozen fighters following a reported JNIM truce with the Beninese government.
Feb 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Repeated Attacks Disrupt China-Backed Niger-Benin Pipeline
Repeated rebel attacks on the CNPC-operated Niger-Benin pipeline, alongside broader insecurity around Niamey, have turned a flagship Chinese investment into a liability.
Dec 9, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Senegal Disrupts Jihadist WhatsApp Propaganda Networks in Tambacounda
Senegalese authorities arrested individuals tied to WhatsApp-based dissemination of jihadist propaganda in the Tambacounda-Kidira border zone, including content linked to Katiba Macina and the wider JNIM ecosystem.
Nov 27, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Niger Junta Seizes Orano Uranium Stockpile, Faces Export Deadlock
Niger's military junta under General Tiani forcibly transported yellowcake uranium stored at the SOMAÏR site, expelling French operator Orano and claiming sovereign control over the resource.
Sep 4, 2025
De-escalating
Other
HRW Documents Mass Civilian Killings by Burkina Faso Forces, VDP, and JNIM
Human Rights Watch documented at least 1,837 civilian deaths in Burkina Faso between January 2023 and August 2025 attributed to the army, the VDP auxiliaries, and JNIM.
Jul 17, 2025
Escalating
Political
Traore Publicly Repudiates Democracy, Consolidates Permanent Authoritarian Rule
Burkina Faso's junta leader Ibrahim Traore explicitly stated that democracy is incompatible with his country's future, eliminating ambiguity about the transitional nature of military rule.
Jul 16, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM Blockade of Bamako and Nationwide Insurgent Offensive
JNIM fighters imposed a partial blockade on Bamako, closing at least three of six major entry routes and stranding civilians, traders, and lorry drivers on key highways.
Jul 14, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Gulf Dual Chokepoint Crisis Cascades into North Africa and Sahel
Simultaneous effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea corridor — triggered by US-Israel strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian retaliation including Houthi escalation — has reconfigured global trade flows at structural scale.
Jul 12, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Jihadist-Tuareg Offensive Kills Mali Defence Minister; Africa Corps Withdraws from Kidal
A large-scale coordinated offensive by jihadist and Tuareg separatist forces struck multiple locations across Mali, killing Defence Minister Sadio Camara and penetrating to within 20km of Bamako.
Jul 7, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Armed Attack on Military-Escorted Civilian Convoy in Binduri, Northern Ghana
Unidentified assailants attacked a Ghana Armed Forces-escorted convoy of approximately 140 civilians traveling the Bawku-Bolgatanga route, killing three civilians and wounding one.
Jun 22, 2025
Mixed
Military
Azawad Liberation Front Drone Strike on Russian Africa Corps and Malian Forces
On June 22, 2025, the Tuareg Azawad Liberation Front used fiber-optic FPV drones to destroy a convoy of Russian Africa Corps and Malian armed-forces vehicles in northern Mali, demonstrating that a low-resource rebel group could field cutting-edge technology against superior state actors.
Jun 13, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
France-Africa Summit 'Africa Forward' Hosted in Nairobi
France and Kenya co-hosted the 'Africa Forward' summit in Nairobi — the first France-Africa summit held outside France or Francophone Africa — attended by approximately 30 heads of state, 1,500 business executives, and international organizations.
Jun 10, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
US Congress Advances Foreign Service Modernization Act and Sudan Sanctions Legislation
The House Foreign Affairs Committee marked up the Foreign Service Modernization Act, targeting the depleted Bureau of African Affairs with expedited hiring authority, critical minerals training mandates, and language preservation requirements.
Jun 5, 2025
Escalating
Legal
Mali Sentences French National for Alleged Destabilisation Plot
Mali's military-led government secured a 20-year prison sentence against a French national accused of involvement in a plot to destabilise the country.
May 29, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Nigeria Joint Airstrikes Expand Against ISWAP in Northeast Nigeria
The United States has expanded joint military operations with Nigeria in the country's northeast, with recent strikes eliminating a top ISWAP leader and killing 175 militants.
May 21, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Russia Arrests Muslim Spiritual Directorate Officials in Nationwide Crackdown
The Russian state has launched an undeclared but escalating campaign of arrests against senior officials of Muslim Spiritual Directorates — the state-backed institutions Moscow uses to manage Islam's decentralized structure — on charges of bribery and other crimes.
May 19, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM and FLA Siege of Bamako Drives US Congressional and Diplomatic Reassessment of Sahel Posture
JNIM and the Front de Libération de l'Azawad are laying siege to Mali's capital Bamako, placing the Mali junta's survival under direct military pressure.
May 18, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
Niger-China Oil Sector Reconciliation and Pipeline Equity Deal
Niger's military regime signed a package of agreements with Chinese oil companies on 18 May 2025, relaunching two $1bn oil projects (Dinga Deep and Abolo-Yogou) targeting a production increase from 110,000 to 145,000 barrels per day by 2029.
May 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Mali Junta Launches Retaliatory Drone Strikes Amid JNIM-FLA Insurgent Advance
Mali's military launched multi-day drone strikes on Kidal — seized by FLA and JNIM in late April — and struck Tene in the central San region, killing at least 10 civilians including children.
May 11, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
France-Africa Forward Summit Convenes in Nairobi
France convened the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi — its first such summit in an Anglophone country — with over 30 African heads of state and government, marking a structural reorientation of French Africa policy.
May 11, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
France Africa Forward Summit, Nairobi
France convenes approximately 20 African heads of state and hundreds of business leaders in Nairobi for the Africa Forward summit, marking a structural reorientation of French Africa policy away from francophone Sahel states toward anglophone and southern African partners.
May 7, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Macron Nairobi Africa Summit — Security-Minerals Partnership Pitch
President Macron convened a major Africa summit in Nairobi attended by over 30 heads of state and 4,000 delegates, using the platform to articulate a new French engagement model: demand-driven security assistance in exchange for access to critical minerals and rare earths, explicitly contrasted with Chinese dependency structures.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Political
Madagascar Military Junta Announces 2027 Electoral Transition Timeline
Madagascar's military election body announced a constitutional referendum for June 2027 and elections for October 2027, fulfilling the two-year transition timeline agreed with SADC following the October 2024 coup.
Apr 28, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Ukraine Emerges as Core European Security Partner
Ukraine has shifted from a dependent aid recipient to an active security exporter, providing military training to European partners, deploying anti-drone specialists to Gulf states, and signing long-term security agreements with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
Apr 28, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Ukraine Drone Diplomacy Campaign Across Middle East and Europe
Ukraine has signed a series of defence and drone cooperation agreements with Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Turkey, Syria, and Azerbaijan within a compressed diplomatic window.
Apr 26, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Sahel Accounts for Majority of Global Terrorism Deaths
The Sahel region surpassed 50% of global terrorism-related fatalities in 2024, marking a structural concentration of jihadist violence in a zone where state coercive capacity has collapsed across multiple sovereigns.
Apr 25, 2025
Escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Coordinated Multi-Node Offensive Across Mali
JNIM, in coordination with Front de Libération de l'Azawad elements, launched near-simultaneous attacks on military outposts, bases, airports, and strategic hubs across multiple regions of Mali on April 25.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Joint Attack in Sikasso Region, Southern Mali
A joint attack by JNIM and the separatist FLA in the village of Kafiguéla in Mali's Sikasso region — on the edge of southern Mali bordering Côte d'Ivoire — killed at least three people, marking a southward extension of the Sahel insurgency toward Ivorian territory.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Coordinated Attacks Across Mali Kill Defense Minister
A coordinated series of attacks by JNIM and the Tuareg-led FLA struck military sites and cities across Mali on April 25, killing Defense Minister Sadio Camara — the central node in Mali's security relationship with Russian forces.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-Tuareg Coordinated Offensive Forces Africa Corps Withdrawal from Kidal
On April 25-26, JNIM and Azawad Liberation Front forces launched the largest coordinated insurgent-separatist offensive in Mali since 2012, killing Defense Minister General Sadio Camara and forcing Russia's Africa Corps to withdraw from Kidal — a city Wagner had captured in November 2023.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-Tuareg Coordinated Assault on Mali Military Government
Simultaneous attacks by JNIM (al-Qaeda-linked) and Tuareg separatist rebels killed Mali's defence minister, seized military bases and towns in the northern Sahara fringe, and declared a total blockade of Bamako.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Coordinated Multi-City Attack on Mali
JNIM and the Tuareg FLA launched simultaneous strikes across Mali on 25-26 April 2025, targeting sites from Kidal in the far north to Kati near Bamako — a 1,500 km operational spread.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Assassination of Mali Defence Minister Sadio Camara by JNIM Car Bomb
JNIM executed a suicide car bomb attack on the Kati residence of Mali Defence Minister Sadio Camara, killing him. Kati is the military garrison town adjacent to Bamako and the symbolic heart of junta power.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Explosions and Gunfire Near Kati Military Base, Bamako
Two explosions and sustained gunfire were reported near Kati, Mali's principal military base outside Bamako, with soldiers deploying to block surrounding roads.
Apr 22, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM Escalates Fuel Blockade of Bamako — Mass Vehicle Burning
JNIM burned dozens of vehicles — including fuel tankers, minibuses, and trucks — on a highway approximately 45km west of Bamako, escalating its ongoing fuel blockade of Mali's capital.
Apr 20, 2025
Escalating
Military
Russia's Coercive Recruitment of African Labor Migrants into Military Service
Russia has systematically recruited African men — primarily from Sub-Saharan Africa — through deceptive labor migration channels, coercing them into signing military contracts upon arrival.
Apr 20, 2025
Escalating
Military
Russia Recruits African Nationals Under False Pretenses for Ukraine Frontline
Russia is systematically recruiting young African men — primarily from Kenya and other sub-Saharan African countries — through deceptive labor contracts, then coercing them into frontline military service in Ukraine.
Apr 20, 2025
Escalating
Military
Russia's Fraudulent African Military Recruitment Network Exposed
A decentralized network of recruiters operating across at least nine African countries — including Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania, Zambia, Togo, Botswana, and Mali — has been funneling economically vulnerable young men into Russian military service under false pretenses of civilian employment.
Apr 20, 2025
Escalating
Military
Wagner-GRU Balkan Recruitment Network Exposed via Savičić Profile
Investigative reporting confirms that Davor Savičić, a Bosnian Serb Wagner colonel with GRU ties, operates a structured recruitment pipeline funneling ethnic Serbs from Bosnia, Serbia, and Montenegro into Russian forces in Ukraine.
Apr 16, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Burkina Faso Nationalises Sofitex Cotton Company
Burkina Faso's junta formalised full state ownership of Sofitex on 16 April 2025, purchasing the remaining 5.5% private stake for CFA75bn (~$155.5m).
Apr 16, 2025
Escalating
Legal
South Africa Arrests Kemi Seba for Extradition to Benin
South African authorities detained Kemi Seba, who is wanted by Benin on charges tied to support for a failed coup attempt against President Patrice Talon.
Apr 12, 2025
Mixed
Political
Wadagni Elected President of Benin with 94.27% of Vote
Romuald Wadagni won Benin's presidential election with 94.27% of the vote, marking the fifth democratic transfer of power since 1990 and the first under a significantly restructured constitutional framework.
Apr 12, 2025
Escalating
Political
Wadagni Election Opens Niger-Benin Diplomatic Reset Window
Romuald Wadagni's election as Benin's president on 12 April 2025 creates a potential inflection point in the deeply strained Niger-Benin relationship, which has been marked by border closures, diplomatic expulsions, mutual accusations, and pipeline weaponisation since Niger's 2023 coup.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Offensive Seizes Kidal, Besieges Bamako
A coordinated rebel offensive by the JNIM-FLA coalition captured Kidal, killed Mali's defense minister and head of military intelligence, struck the international airport, and imposed a fuel and supply blockade on Bamako.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Coalition Attacks Expose Mali Junta and Russian Force Limitations
Coordinated jihadist and separatist forces launched major attacks on Malian territory, including in Kidal, where Russian-backed Malian forces were outmatched despite advance warning.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Coordinated Jihadist-Insurgent Attack Routs Mali Junta Forces
In late April 2025, a coordinated multi-city assault by northern ethnic insurgents allied with an al-Qaeda-affiliated group inflicted a severe military defeat on Mali's junta government.
Mar 31, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
Algeria Leverages Iran Conflict to Renegotiate European Gas Contracts
Algeria is using disruptions to Middle Eastern energy supply chains — particularly the Iranian strike on Qatari LNG plants — to renegotiate gas export prices with Italy and Spain, seeking a 15–20 percent increase.
Mar 20, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Mass Civilian Killings in Niger's Tahoua Region
Armed assailants on motorbikes attacked three isolated villages in the Birni N'Koni department of Niger's Tahoua region, killing 30 civilians and seizing approximately 500 head of livestock before withdrawing into Nigeria.
Feb 9, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Tsamiya-Kamba Corridor Reopening Between Nigeria, Niger, and Benin
Nigeria officially reopened the Tsamiya-Kamba border corridor in Kebbi State, restoring cross-border movement of goods and people between Nigeria, Niger, and Benin after seven years of closure.
Feb 3, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Global Foreign Aid Collapse — $30 Billion Reduction in 2025
In 2025, the United States dismantled USAID and, alongside France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, collectively cut approximately $30 billion in foreign aid.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Joint U.S.-Nigeria Strike Kills Islamic State No. 2 al-Mainuki
U.S. and Nigerian forces conducted a joint operation killing Abu Bakr ibn Muhammad ibn 'Ali al-Mainuki, Islamic State's alleged second-in-command globally.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
Systemic U.S. Policy Subordination of Africa to Other Regional Priorities
A former Biden NSC senior director documents a structural pattern in which U.S. Africa policy has been repeatedly stripped of resources and decision-making space to satisfy European, Middle Eastern, and Indo-Pacific priorities.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Coordinated Jihadist-Separatist Attacks Strain Mali Security Apparatus
Unprecedented coordinated attacks by jihadist and separatist groups have placed Mali's security apparatus under acute strain, exposing the limits of Bamako's post-French, Wagner-dependent security reconfiguration.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM Siege of Bamako and Africa Corps Retreat from Kidal
JNIM forces besieged Bamako, attacked the international airport, killed Mali's defense minister Gen. Sadio Camara in a vehicle-borne IED strike on his home
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Lake Chad Basin Climate-Conflict Displacement Compounding Crisis
Climate disasters have surpassed armed conflict as the primary driver of displacement in the Lake Chad Basin, while the two stressors are increasingly compounding each other.
Sep 17, 2024
De-escalating
Military
Coordinated Multi-City Armed Assault on Mali Security Infrastructure
Armed groups launched simultaneous attacks across at least three Malian cities — Bamako, Gao, and Sevare — targeting the Kati military base, a strategically significant installation outside the capital.
Sep 1, 2024
De-escalating
Cyber
Wagner Information Network Crackdown and Expulsion in Chad
Chadian authorities arrested four Wagner-linked Russian operatives — including Maxim Shugaley and Evgeny Tsarev — along with several local journalists after the operatives attempted to establish influence infrastructure in N'Djamena, including a 'Russian House' cultural center.
Jun 1, 2024
Escalating
Cyber
Russia's Company Network Conducts Paid Disinformation Placement Across West African Media
A Russian influence network ('the Company'), originally founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin and subsequently absorbed by Russia's SVR foreign intelligence service, systematically placed nearly 650 pro-Russian, anti-French, anti-Ukrainian articles across 35 West African media outlets from June to October 2024.
Apr 14, 2024
De-escalating
Political
South Africa Arrests Kemi Seba in Pretoria
South African authorities detained Kemi Seba in Pretoria for allegedly overstaying his visa, while Benin reportedly seeks him for more serious offenses.
Jan 1, 2024
De-escalating
Military
Tuareg-JNIM Recapture of Kidal from Mali Junta Forces
Tuareg rebel forces (CSP-PSD) and JNIM jihadist fighters jointly recaptured Kidal, the historic northern Malian bastion, from the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and their Russian Africa Corps partners.
Apr 22, 2022
Escalating
Alliance
Cameroon Signs New Military Cooperation Agreement with Russia
Cameroon concluded a new military cooperation agreement with Russia during a visit by Defence Minister Joseph Beti Assomo to Moscow.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Air France Closes Bamako Office Amid France-Sahel Rupture
Air France confirmed it will permanently close its Bamako office on 30 June, three years after suspending Mali flights in 2023 as relations with Sahel military regimes deteriorated.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Spread of Ukrainian Drone Technology to African Conflicts
Ukrainian drone manufacturing, modification know-how, and instructors are spreading to African states and armed groups, with emulation of first-person-view and fibre-optic tactics appearing in Mali, Sudan, and the DRC.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Forecast Post-Ukraine Arms and Mercenary Surplus Flowing to Africa
The analysis projects that the end of the Ukraine war will release stockpiled weapons, expert drone pilots, and demobilized fighters onto the global illicit market, with Africa absorbing a sizeable share and intensifying conflict there.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Niger Junta Pursues Multi-Vector Diplomatic Realignment
Niger's junta leader Tiani has conducted an official visit to Ankara and received Benin's newly installed president Romuald Wadagni in Niamey, signaling a dual-track effort to deepen ties with alternative patrons while repairing strained regional relationships.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Peacekeeping Funding Cuts Accelerate African Security Architecture Fragmentation
The United States has accumulated US$1.8 billion in arrears to the UN peacekeeping budget, with a congressional subcommittee proposing a 60% reduction in future contributions.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
Russia's War Economy Reaches Structural Lock-In
Over four years of conflict, Russia's fiscal, industrial, and social architecture has been reorganized around military production, creating structural dependencies that make de-escalation economically and politically costly.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Counterterrorism Posture Degradation Amid Fragmented Threat Landscape
The U.S. faces a diffuse terrorism threat with no single dominant actor, spanning al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates in Africa and the Middle East, and ideologically heterogeneous lone actors domestically.
Escalating / Eurasia
Putin publicly concedes fuel shortages as Ukraine's deep-strike campaign reaches refineries and Crimea's supply lines.
Conflict / Eurasia
NATO's Ankara summit approaches as U.S. munitions stocks run low and Europe races to fill the deterrence gap.