Mali's junta is losing its grip on the north as JNIM retakes Kidal and chokes Bamako's supply routes, while the rupture with France leaves it leaning ever harder on a Russian partner that cannot hold ground.

Authority

Territorial control erodes as insurgents contest cities and capital routes.

Reach

Deepening isolation narrows it to a thin Russian-backed bloc.

Power Profile

Grip at Home: 21 out of 100
Weight: 45 out of 100
Regard: 44 out of 100
Outward Power: 16 out of 100
Growth: 75 out of 100

Dependency Quadrant

6 ties run mutually; 0 skew toward Mali, 2 away.

0Dependents2Exposures

Top 8 Snapshots3to19

Plus content

Relationship depth is reserved for Plus.

Upgrade to trace the strongest alignments, directional shifts, and network context around this actor.

View plans

Active Conflicts

Somalia Al-Shabaab InsurgencyWar

AfricaInsurgency

Sahel InsurgencyWar

AfricaInsurgency

West African Coups BeltWar

AfricaCivil War

Plus content

Assessment history opens with Plus.

Upgrade to move from the public actor framing into the linked assessment archive and deeper analytic writeups.

View plans

Plus content

Recent activity is part of the Plus read.

Upgrade to follow the latest events, feed movement, and live context that sits beneath the public actor snapshot.

View plans

Strategic Profile

Authority

Authority footing

Fragile Institutions

Reach

Population base

24M

Large Population

Vulnerability

Defense burden

Heavy Burden

Mobilization mode

Closed autocracy

Fiscal capacity

Mid Capacity

Government effectiveness

Weak Governance

Logistics capacity

Working Logistics

Trade openness

Closed Trade

50%

Economic scale

Mid Economy

$27B

Capital openness

Open Capital

Debt service pressure

Low Exposure

Defense spending / person

Low Priority

$38

Debt load

Low Exposure

25%

Defense spending trend

Rearming

40%

Plus content

Show more opens with Plus.

The headline structural cards stay visible. Upgrade to open the deeper institutional table beneath them.

View plans

PF Score