War / Africa
Eastern Congo War
M23 holds eastern Congo at 35% accord compliance as Ebola threatens a record outbreak and Angola's mediation track has collapsed.
The DRC-Rwanda Proxy War pits the Democratic Republic of Congo's military (FARDC) against the M23-AFC rebel coalition, which Rwanda arms, commands, and fights alongside with its own troops embedded on Congolese soil.
The current war began in 2021 when M23 rearmed in eastern Congo, but the pattern is older: Rwanda has invaded or backed insurgencies in its giant neighbor since 1996, citing the genocide-linked Hutu FDLR militia sheltering across the border. Kinshasa has answered by hiring Russian and European private military contractors to hold the line. M23 took Goma in early 2025 and Bukavu weeks later, the two largest cities in eastern Congo.
The world's deadliest war zone since 1998 is back, and its next phase is being fought by mercenaries on one side and a neighboring state's army on the other.
Congo's diplomatic posture shifted in late June as Kinshasa leveraged its UN Security Council presidency to push new sanctions designations against Rwandan targets and filed a fresh ICJ case against Kigali, with Washington acting unilaterally after Russia blocked multilateral action.
The conflict remains in a sustained war phase: M23-AFC holds Goma, Uvira, and South Kivu, RDF units remain embedded in rebel formations, and the Washington accord's 35% implementation after one year signals structural failure.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Kinshasa's shift to legal and UN-track pressure is a structural adaptation to military stalemate: the ICJ case and Security Council presidency give Tshisekedi coercive tools that do not require battlefield parity.
The third-term referendum bill is the most live near-term escalation trigger: M23 has pre-committed to declaring independence if constitutional revision proceeds.
The South Africa-Rwanda normalization of June 17 is a net loss for Kinshasa: it removed the most credible African military counterweight to Kigali without extracting any concession on M23's territorial position.
M23-AFC serves as Rwanda's primary armed proxy, holding territorial control across North and South Kivu including Goma and Uvira.
RDF units remain embedded with M23 formations, providing direct command, logistics, and fire coordination on active fronts in Masisi and the Minembwe highlands.
FDLR is the genocide-linked Hutu militia Rwanda cites as its core security precondition for any withdrawal, now US-sanctioned alongside M23 leadership.
Africa Corps (Wagner successor) operates as Kinshasa's primary PMC combat layer, providing direct fire support and drone operations in eastern Congo.
Agemira RDC is a separate PMC contractor embedded with FARDC in direct combat and advisory roles alongside Africa Corps.
Rwanda (direct troop deployment and logistics); Western donors pressuring Kigali; AU and SADC deploying monitoring and intervention forces
War / Africa
M23 holds eastern Congo at 35% accord compliance as Ebola threatens a record outbreak and Angola's mediation track has collapsed.
War / Africa
Pretoria is dead, Abiy holds a supermajority, and three simultaneous insurgencies now face an Eritrea-Egypt external axis.