Escalating / Global
US-China Strategic Competition
Washington and Beijing race to lock in supply chains, legal coercion tools, and Pacific access as the structural competition hardens.
Since roughly 2010, the world's major powers have been fighting a continuous, undeclared conflict in cyberspace and the information domain.
It started with Stuxnet, the US-Israeli worm that physically destroyed Iranian nuclear centrifuges and proved code could break machines. Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea have since built dedicated state hacking units that steal secrets, sabotage infrastructure, and shape public opinion abroad. The US, the UK, and allied intelligence services do the same in return. Chinese operators sit inside Western power grids and telecom networks, waiting.
The first shots of the next great-power war have likely already been fired.
The most consequential recent phase development is the convergence of three structural shifts that deepen adversary advantage without triggering a discrete escalation event.
China's national AI dataset centralization plan and mandatory genetic data deposit rule together lock in a one-way data asymmetry: Beijing studies foreign populations at scale while denying reciprocal access, fusing economic competitiveness with surveillance architecture.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The conflict's center of gravity has shifted from network intrusion to data substrate control: China's AI dataset centralization and genetic data deposit rules are structural moves that compound over years.
The US export control on Mythos-class AI models is a double-edged instrument: it asserts state control over a critical technology chokepoint but simultaneously accelerates fragmentation of the global AI landscape.
The CSIS cognitive warfare deficit finding is a structural constraint with direct operational consequences: US kinetic superiority in irregular and hybrid conflicts actively generates adversary narrative advantage.
Chinese actors tracked as Volt Typhoon were discovered pre-positioning malware inside US power grids, water systems, and communications infrastructure, with assessments indicating preparation for disruptive strikes in the event of conflict over Taiwan.
Chinese state hackers exploited Microsoft Exchange Server zero-days to compromise an estimated 250,000 servers worldwide; separately, a ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline—enabled by criminal groups operating freely from Russia—shut down fuel supplies across the US East Coast.
A Russian SVR supply-chain attack compromised SolarWinds Orion software, giving hackers access to networks at nine US federal agencies and roughly 100 private companies for up to nine months before detection.
The NotPetya malware, attributed to Russian GRU, spread globally from Ukrainian targets and caused an estimated $10 billion in damages to shipping, pharmaceutical, and financial companies, the costliest cyberattack on record.
Russian military intelligence (GRU) hacked the Democratic National Committee and conducted a broad influence operation across social media platforms, directly interfering in the US presidential election and setting a new benchmark for information warfare.
North Korean hackers breached Sony Pictures, destroying data and leaking files in retaliation for a satirical film; the same year, Russian hackers compromised US State Department and White House unclassified networks.
NSA contractor Edward Snowden leaked documents revealing the scale of US and allied signals intelligence collection, exposing programs like PRISM and triggering a global debate that reshaped norms around state cyber espionage.
Russia's Sandworm conducts destructive attacks on European energy and operational technology infrastructure, including power grid and rail targeting.
Russia's APT28 and Cozy Bear run persistent espionage and disinformation operations against NATO members and Ukrainian force generation networks.
Russian-aligned criminal proxy groups deploy ransomware against NATO-member industrial targets.
Russian-aligned proxy information outlets exploit a 15-to-45-minute narrative window before official European responses, amplifying disinformation at scale.
Russia's GPS spoofing network functions as a gray-zone electronic warfare layer degrading military and civilian navigation across the Baltic and beyond.
All major state actors self-sponsor; DPRK uses cybercrime proceeds to fund weapons programs
Jun 27, 2026
Escalating
Legal
U.S. Export Controls Impose De Facto Ban on Anthropic Mythos-Class AI Models
The U.S. government used export controls to bar foreign nationals — including Anthropic employees — from accessing Mythos-class AI models, effectively imposing a blanket ban on Claude Fable 5.
Jun 25, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
European NATO Allies Signal Ukraine Financing Commitment Ahead of Ankara Summit
European NATO leaders convened in Berlin to align on a strong financing commitment for Ukraine ahead of the July Ankara summit, while Trump publicly reframed Zelenskyy as 'holding his own,' a shift from his earlier dismissal of Ukraine's leverage.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Construction of New Antenna Array Completed at Bejucal SIGINT Site in Cuba
New commercial satellite imagery shows completed construction of a large circularly disposed antenna array at the Bejucal signals-intelligence site near Havana, one of several Cuban SIGINT facilities CSIS has linked to possible Chinese support.
Jun 8, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Establishes Regulatory Framework for AI Token Economy
China's National Data Administration published an implementation plan on June 8 defining AI tokens (ciyuan) as measurable, priceable, and tradable settlement units, formalizing the first state-sanctioned regulatory framework for the token economy before private market maturation.
Jun 6, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
China Releases Global Governance Initiative White Paper
China's State Council released a nearly 20,000-character white paper titled 'More Just and Equitable Global Governance: China's Principles, Proposals and Actions,' presenting Xi Jinping's Global Governance Initiative as the overarching design framework for reforming international institutions.
Jun 3, 2026
De-escalating
Cyber
Georgian Security Service Triggers French DGSE Officer Recall in Counterintelligence Drive
Georgia's State Security Service made four espionage arrests since April and issued an ultimatum to Western states to recall their intelligence officers, prompting France's DGSE to quietly withdraw two officers to avoid expulsion.
Jun 3, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Issues National Plan to Centralize AI Training Datasets
On June 3, 2026, China's National Data Administration issued an Implementation Plan directing construction of sector-specific 'high-quality datasets' for AI training across 19 sectors and five innovation areas.
May 29, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
EU Advances Regulatory Trifecta Targeting Chinese Industrial and Cyber Exposure
The EU advanced three overlapping regulatory instruments in early 2026 — the revised Cybersecurity Act (CSA2), the Industrial Accelerator Act (IAA), and a French-led overcapacity policy paper — that collectively restrict Chinese firms' access to EU procurement, investment, and ICT supply chains.
May 27, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Japan Establishes National Intelligence Council and Bureau
Japan's Diet approved a law creating a National Intelligence Council chaired by the prime minister and a National Intelligence Bureau to coordinate and unify the country's siloed intelligence agencies, the first of a three-stage reform.
May 26, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Russia MoD Publishes European Drone Supplier Addresses as Coercive Warning
Russia's Ministry of Defense released the physical addresses of companies in eight European countries allegedly involved in drone production for Ukraine, accompanied by explicit warnings of 'unpredictable consequences' and 'sharp escalation' if military assistance continues.
May 15, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Trump Beijing Summit Yields Minimal Structural Progress
US President Trump visited Beijing with a delegation including major business leaders, producing limited deliverables: bilateral trade and investment councils, a $17 billion agricultural purchase commitment, 200 Boeing aircraft orders, and expanded Nvidia H200 chip access for ten Chinese firms.
May 14, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Back-to-Back China-U.S. and China-Russia Summits, May 2026
Xi Jinping hosts Donald Trump for a bilateral summit on May 14-15, followed shortly after by a Xi-Putin meeting in Beijing.
May 8, 2026
Escalating
Legal
PRC Draft Rules Mandate State Deposit of Outbound Human Genetic Data
China's National Health Commission released a consultation draft requiring that human genetic data disclosed abroad first be deposited with a state-run gene bank, tightening a decades-old regime that keeps PRC genomic resources onshore while drawing foreign data inward.
May 7, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
Coordinated Democratic Enforcement Actions Against Chinese Transnational Repression
On May 7, 2026, the UK secured convictions under its National Security Act against a Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office official and a British immigration officer for surveilling and intimidating Hong Kong dissidents.
May 6, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Lowy Institute Address: Structural Diagnosis of International Order Collapse
A senior analytical address delivered at the State Library of Victoria diagnoses the simultaneous collapse of three foundational restraints of the post-1945 order: the prohibition on territorial conquest, reciprocal trade norms, and American hegemonic self-restraint.
May 2, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
US Charges IRGC-Kata'ib Hezbollah Operative for Transnational Terror Campaign
US federal authorities arrested and charged Iraqi national al-Saadi, a Kata'ib Hezbollah commander, with six terrorism-related offenses tied to a coordinated campaign of attacks across the US, UK, Netherlands, France, and North Macedonia.
May 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit — Technology Competition Dimensions
President Trump's first visit to China since 2017 produced a bilateral AI dialogue announcement and Trump's public acknowledgment of U.S.-China cyber parity, but no movement on chip export controls, Volt Typhoon/Salt Typhoon responses, or surveillance concerns.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
EU-Mongolia Strategic Engagement Expansion Across Energy, Trade, and Security
The EU is deepening its engagement with Mongolia across multiple vectors: renewable energy infrastructure financing, a Forest Partnership, counter-disinformation capacity building, and new peace and security dialogue.
Apr 28, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
CCP Completes Parallel Closure Architecture: Exit Bans, VPN Shutdown, Succession Lock, and Elite Granulation
By spring 2026, the CCP has operationalized four simultaneous closure mechanisms: exit-ban expansion reaching U.S. federal employees and officials' families; the technical termination of commercial VPN infrastructure, confirmed by LetsVPN's April 28 market exit; Xi Jinping's structurally locked succession with no institutional transfer mechanism; and May 2025 cadre hospitality regulations that systematically prevent horizontal elite relationship formation.
Apr 22, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Anthropic Restricts Mythos Cyber Model to Project Glasswing Partners
Anthropic announced that it would not publicly release Claude Mythos Preview and instead provide access only to a limited set of major firms and critical infrastructure operators under Project Glasswing.
Apr 21, 2026
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Global Soft Power Collapse Documented in 85-Country Survey
A survey of 85 countries conducted March–April 2026 finds that most nations now view China more favorably than the United States, a reversal from 2023 when the U.S. held a comfortable global soft power lead.
Apr 20, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran War Triggers Strategic Erosion of U.S.-Led Order
The article assesses the broader strategic consequences of the Iran war rather than a single battlefield episode. It argues the conflict has reduced U.S. credibility as guarantor of nonaggression, sovereignty
Apr 20, 2026
Escalating
Political
U.N. Secretary-General Race Reorients Around Peace and Security Mandate
The emerging contest to succeed António Guterres is being framed around whether the United Nations can restore its role in conflict management after years of institutional drift and Security Council paralysis.
Apr 19, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Maintains Iran Port Blockade Amid Conditional Hormuz Reopening Signal
Iran publicly signaled that the Strait of Hormuz was open, apparently to create negotiating space with Washington, but U.S. authorities kept blockade pressure on Iranian ports and expanded enforcement against Iran-linked shipping.
Apr 19, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Reimposes Strait of Hormuz Restrictions and IRGC Fires on Tanker
Iran restored restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz after a brief reopening and signaled that transit would remain constrained while US measures against Iranian shipping continued.
Apr 18, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Minority Armed Factions Hesitate to Exploit U.S.-Israel Pressure
The article describes how U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran have opened a potential window for minority armed factions, especially Kurdish, Baloch, Ahwazi Arab, and MEK networks, to challenge Tehran.
Apr 17, 2026
Escalating
Political
Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr Elevated After Ali Larijani’s Death
Zolghadr’s appointment to replace Ali Larijani as senior security advisor signals the consolidation of Iran’s security establishment at the core of state decision-making.
Apr 15, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran-Linked Strikes Expose Gulf AI Infrastructure Vulnerability
Drone strikes hit AWS-linked facilities in the UAE and Bahrain, after which the IRGC publicized a broader target list covering technology sites across Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE.
Apr 11, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
United States Elevates Vice President to Lead Iran Talks in Islamabad
The United States assigned Vice President JD Vance to lead high-level negotiations with Iran in Islamabad, with Pakistan mediating and senior U.S. envoys present.
Apr 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
U.S. Intelligence Assesses Iran Retains Reconstitutable Missile Arsenal
U.S. and Israeli assessments indicate recent air campaigns significantly degraded Iran's missile and drone infrastructure but did not eliminate its strike capacity.
Apr 11, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Adds Preconditions to Pakistan-Mediated U.S. Peace Talks
Iran publicly conditioned planned talks with the United States on a ceasefire in Lebanon and release of frozen Iranian assets, while signaling it would not relinquish claims tied to the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 11, 2026
Escalating
Political
Gulf States Tighten Internal Control Amid Iran War Spillover
The article describes a region-wide governance shift in Gulf monarchies as war involving Iran, the United States, and Israel increases perceived vulnerability to strikes on infrastructure, shipping, and cities.
Apr 9, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Thailand Expands Asset Seizures in Mauerberger Scam Network Case
Thai authorities seized an additional 8.3 billion baht in assets linked to an alleged money-laundering network supporting Cambodia-based cyber scam operations, bringing total confiscations in the case above 20 billion baht.
Apr 9, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
PRC Defense Scientists Removed Amid Scrutiny of Iran-Linked Weapons Performance
Multiple defense-linked academicians were removed from public rosters of China's top scientific institutions without explanation after the Iran war highlighted apparent failures in PRC-linked air defense and counter-drone systems.
Apr 9, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Evidence Links Russian Propaganda to Military Recruitment Resilience
New survey-based evidence from Russian POWs indicates that adherence to Kremlin propaganda narratives is strongly associated with willingness to fight, re-enlist, and legitimize the invasion of Ukraine.
Apr 9, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Two-Week Cease-Fire and Islamabad Talks Launch
The United States and Iran entered a two-week cease-fire intended to pause direct confrontation and create space for negotiations in Islamabad.
Apr 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran War Exposes Erosion of U.S. Military-Technological Edge
In a 39-day war from February 28 to April 8, the United States conducted over 13,000 strikes on Iran yet failed to achieve its objectives, as Iran launched over 2,200 missiles and 4,400 drones, destroyed or damaged at least eight U.S. aircraft, and killed seven U.S. service members.
Apr 8, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
To Lam Plans Early China Visit After Power Consolidation
Vietnamese leader To Lam is preparing a visit to China to meet Xi Jinping soon after assuming the state presidency while already holding the party leadership.
Apr 8, 2026
Mixed
Cyber
Russian-Linked Election Interference Escalates Ahead of Hungary Parliamentary Vote
The event centers on an apparent escalation of Russian-linked interference and aligned domestic manipulation ahead of Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election.
Apr 7, 2026
De-escalating
Cyber
Anthropic Claude Mythos Frontier Cybersecurity Capability Announcement
Anthropic announced Claude Mythos, a frontier AI model capable of autonomously identifying and chaining zero-day vulnerabilities across major operating systems and browsers, achieving a 72.4 percent exploit development success rate in testing.
Apr 7, 2026
De-escalating
Cyber
Russian Elite and Public Backlash Against Putin's Internet Restrictions
The event centers on growing backlash to Kremlin internet restrictions that are now affecting broad segments of Russian society, including state, military, and business elites.
Apr 5, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Explosives Discovery Near TurkStream Segment in Serbia Fuels Hungary Election Influence Narrative
Explosives were found near the Balkan Stream segment of TurkStream in northern Serbia, triggering competing narratives over responsibility.
Apr 4, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Explosion Targets Pro-Israel Center in Nijkerk
A low-yield explosive device was placed outside the gate of the Christians for Israel center in Nijkerk, causing limited physical damage but signaling coercive reach against pro-Israeli civil infrastructure in Europe.
Apr 4, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US-Israeli Ultimatum to Iran Over Strait of Hormuz
The United States and Israel escalated coercive pressure on Iran by threatening attacks on its energy infrastructure unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 4, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
US and Russian Support Networks Back Orbán Ahead of Hungarian Election
Ahead of Hungary's election, the article describes parallel external efforts to improve Viktor Orbán's political survival: overt political endorsement from the Trump administration and alleged Russian intelligence-linked disinformation activity targeting his opponent.
Apr 3, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Quantum Sector Reaches Operational Infrastructure Scale Under Decade of Industrial Policy
China's quantum technology sector has crossed from laboratory science into operational national infrastructure, driven by a decade of increasingly specific industrial policy, a multi-tiered state capital architecture exceeding RMB 11.2 billion in cumulative financing, and deployment of a 6,000-mile ground network plus satellite layer.
Apr 1, 2026
Mixed
Political
Fidesz Electoral Defeat Ends Orbán Era, Illiberal Network Legacy Persists
Fidesz's April 2026 electoral defeat ends sixteen years of Orbán-led governance that systematically reoriented Hungary away from Euro-Atlantic consensus toward a dense web of illiberal transnational dependencies.
Apr 1, 2026
Mixed
Institutional
Russia Digital Sovereignty Drive: OS Progress, Hardware Setbacks
Russia's multi-year campaign to replace Western IT infrastructure with domestic alternatives has produced asymmetric results.
Mar 31, 2026
Mixed
Cyber
Iran Deploys AI-Accelerated Disinformation Campaign Targeting Western Audiences During U.S.-Israeli Conflict
Iran is conducting a multiplatform disinformation campaign targeting Western, particularly American, audiences to erode public support for U.S.-Israeli military operations that have degraded Iranian leadership, defense infrastructure, and missile capabilities.
Mar 31, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Russia Intervenes in Georgian Patriarchal Succession Contest
Russia's SVR publicly accused Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I of meddling in the Georgian Orthodox Church succession after the death of Ilia II, signaling direct Kremlin involvement in the patriarchal contest.
Mar 12, 2026
De-escalating
Cyber
Scam-Centre Networks Displace from Cambodia into Sri Lanka
Crackdowns in Cambodia and action against Prince Group have increased pressure on regional scam-centre operators, but the networks are adapting by relocating into smaller, distributed cells in Sri Lanka.
Mar 11, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran War: Strait of Hormuz Effective Closure Disrupts Global Energy Markets
US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, removing approximately 12 million barrels per day from global oil supply and taking Qatari LNG export capacity fully offline, with two of fourteen LNG trains at Ras Laffan damaged.
Mar 10, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Iran Deploys AI-Generated and Shitpost Propaganda Campaign During US-Iran Conflict
Iran's state media and diplomatic accounts launched a coordinated information operation combining AI-generated video content, Lego animation, and embassy shitposting that accumulated nearly one billion views across diplomatic accounts in 50 days — 14 times pre-war levels.
Mar 6, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strike Disables Shahid Bagheri and Triggers Oil Spill Near Hara Reserve
A US airstrike disabled the Iranian drone carrier Shahid Bagheri in the Khuran Strait, leaving it grounded and leaking heavy fuel oil toward the Hara mangrove reserve near the Strait of Hormuz.
Mar 5, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
CCP Doctrinal Reframing of National Closure as Sovereign Strategy
Between 2022 and 2026, the CCP executed two sequential vocabulary substitutions that together constitute a doctrinal architecture for permanent national closure.
Mar 1, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Grab Acquires foodpanda Taiwan, Concentrating Urban Data Infrastructure Under Chinese-Linked Technology Stack
Grab's $600 million acquisition of foodpanda Taiwan creates a platform controlling over 50% of the food delivery market across 21 Taiwanese cities, with full user migration expected by early 2027.
Mar 1, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Death of Ali Khamenei and Succession of Mojtaba Khamenei
Ali Khamenei's death triggered a rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei, but the transition removes the only figure with enough authority to arbitrate among Iran's rival power centers.
Mar 1, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Drone Strikes on Gulf AWS Data Centers
Iran reportedly struck Amazon Web Services data centers in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, disrupting banking and payment platforms across the Gulf for weeks.
Mar 1, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Africa Politology Sahel Influence Campaign Exposed
Leaked documents from Africa Politology — a Russian influence network originally established by Wagner's Prigozhin and later absorbed by Russian foreign intelligence — detail a coordinated multi-year campaign to entrench Russian influence across the Sahel and adjacent states.
Feb 28, 2026
Escalating
Legal
Russia Expands FSB Internet Control Authority and Sovereign Internet Infrastructure
Putin signed legislation obligating Russian telecom operators to block communications on FSB orders, while an interagency committee comprising the Ministry of Digital Technologies, RosKomNadZor, and the FSB was granted authority to direct national internet traffic routing.
Feb 28, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Adopts Regionalized Escalation and Strait of Hormuz Closure Strategy
Following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran shifted from a primarily retaliatory deterrence model to a broader coercive strategy that regionalizes conflict through attacks or threats against energy, financial, and transit infrastructure.
Feb 27, 2026
Escalating
Military
Trump Approves Joint US-Israeli Strike Campaign Against Iran
President Trump approved Operation Epic Fury after weeks of closed-door deliberations with Israeli and US officials over a campaign to kill senior Iranian leaders and degrade Iran's missile and nuclear-related capabilities.
Feb 23, 2026
Escalating
Military
Kim Jong Un Announces Exponential Nuclear Arsenal Expansion
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un publicly declared intent to expand the country's nuclear arsenal at an exponential rate, signaling a deliberate escalation of Pyongyang's nuclear posture.
Jan 13, 2026
Escalating
Legal
Indonesia Advances Disinformation and Foreign Propaganda Bill
Indonesia's government has moved forward with a draft law to counter disinformation and foreign propaganda, framed as protecting national resilience and public order.
Jan 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Vance Intervention in UK Nowak Murder Case Triggers US-UK Diplomatic Clash
Vice President JD Vance publicly weaponized the murder of Henry Nowak — a case with no immigration dimension — to advance the Trump administration's narrative of European civilizational decline and migration failure.
Jan 1, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
US Launches American AI Export Program at India AI Impact Summit
The Trump administration unveiled the American AI Export Program at the 2026 India AI Impact Summit, introducing a national champions initiative integrating partner-nation AI companies with the US AI stack, new financing through the World Bank, Export-Import Bank, and USIDFC, and a Tech Prosperity Corps within the Peace Corps.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Other
TJWG Documents Post-COVID Shift in North Korean Execution Patterns
A TJWG report analyzing 144 execution cases under Kim Jong Un finds that the COVID-19 border closure (January 2020) marked a structural shift in North Korea's coercive governance.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
2026 NPT Review Conference Opens Amid Structural Regime Stress
The 10th NPT Review Conference convenes in New York against the most severe structural stress the nonproliferation regime has faced in its 50-year history.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
India's Structural Positioning Within a Fracturing Liberal International Order
India has consolidated a durable posture of selective LIO engagement across four security domains — alliances, security communities, crisis management, and nuclear governance — deepening bilateral defense cooperation with the United States while refusing binding alliance commitments.
Jan 1, 2026
Mixed
Cyber
Iran Deploys AI-Enabled Information Warfare Campaign During U.S.-Israel Military Conflict
Following U.S. and Israeli strikes that degraded Iranian naval, missile, and nuclear capabilities, Iran launched a coordinated information warfare campaign across social media platforms including X and Bluesky.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
US Arctic Critical Minerals Strategy Launch and Project Forge Initiative
In early 2026, the US government launched a coordinated push to secure Arctic critical minerals, including the creation of a strategic mineral stockpile and Project Forge, a multilateral initiative to build a strategic trading bloc for critical resources.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Sweden Publicly Attributes Heating Plant Cyberattack to Russia-Linked Actors
Sweden publicly concluded that a 2025 cyberattack on a heating plant in western Sweden was conducted by a pro-Russian group linked to Russian security and intelligence services.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Cyber
Russian Disinformation and Mobilization Strain Undermine Ukraine's Force Generation
The article describes a sustained erosion of Ukraine's manpower pipeline as war fatigue, distrust of conscription, and Russian disinformation weaken recruitment and retention.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Israeli Campaign Suppresses Iranian External Terror Operations
The article assesses that Iran did not employ terrorism during the 2026 war despite longstanding reliance on proxy and covert attacks, implying a temporary degradation of Tehran's external action capacity.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Turkmenistan Likely Rejects Renewed U.S. Access for Iran Contingency
The event is the emerging but likely unsuccessful U.S. effort to explore renewed access arrangements in Turkmenistan for logistics or support roles tied to a possible next phase of conflict with Iran.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Australia Strategic Preparedness Critique Amid Middle East Supply Shock
This is an analytical claim that conflict spillovers from the Middle East and Ukraine have exposed Australia's weak fuel, food and logistics resilience.
Dec 27, 2025
Escalating
Military
China Expands Regional Coercion and Parallel Diplomatic Outreach
China intensified coercive activity across multiple theaters, including maritime confrontations with the Philippines and Japan and large-scale PLA drills around Taiwan, while simultaneously pursuing diplomatic and economic initiatives with India, Thailand, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Europe.
Dec 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
China Releases 2025 Latin America and Caribbean Policy Paper
China released its third Latin America and Caribbean policy paper in December 2025, embedding the region within its four global initiatives — Development, Security, Civilization, and Governance — and five programmatic pillars including military exchanges, law enforcement cooperation, and infrastructure investment.
Dec 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Anthropic Discloses First AI-Orchestrated Chinese Espionage Campaign
Anthropic reported disrupting a Chinese state-sponsored campaign that used the company's own AI systems to target roughly 30 Western technology, finance, government, and critical infrastructure entities with minimal human supervision.
Dec 1, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Australia's Age-Restriction Platform Classification Exposes Non-Western Digital Governance Blind Spot
Australia's implementation of social media age restrictions in December 2025 revealed inconsistent classification of major Chinese platforms such as WeChat and Xiaohongshu.
Oct 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
North Korea's Nuclear Normalization Campaign Amid Sanctions Fragmentation
With the UN Panel of Experts disbanded after Russia's 2024 veto and replaced by a non-binding multilateral monitoring coalition, North Korea is using Korean-language law and state media to frame its arsenal as a permanent, legitimate deterrent.
Oct 1, 2025
Mixed
Cyber
PRC Cross-Domain Cognitive Warfare Campaign Targeting Japan's Security Normalization
Since Prime Minister Takaichi took office in October 2025, Beijing has executed a coordinated cross-domain campaign combining export controls, targeted sanctions on Japanese lawmakers, PLA grey zone operations, and state media influence operations to fracture Japan's domestic political consensus on constitutional reform.
Oct 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Busan Summit Export Control Concession and Structural Shift in U.S.-China Bilateral Framework
At the October 2025 Busan summit, Trump and Xi endorsed an arrangement in which China paused its most sweeping rare earth export controls in exchange for the United States withdrawing a regulation closing a semiconductor export control loophole and forgoing new export controls targeting Chinese entities.
Sep 3, 2025
Mixed
Military
China Intelligence Exploitation of US-Iran Conflict (Operation Roaring Lion)
As US and Israeli forces conduct high-intensity multi-domain operations against Iran (Operation Roaring Lion/Epic Fury), China is conducting systematic intelligence collection across electronic, imagery, and open-source domains to extract lessons on US operational signatures, platform vulnerabilities, AI and EW employment, and strategic decision-making under Trump.
Aug 31, 2025
Mixed
Cyber
Russian-Attributed Ransomware Attack on Jaguar Land Rover
A Russian hacker group infiltrated Jaguar Land Rover's networks and deployed novel ransomware on August 31, 2025, forcing a five-week production shutdown across England, Brazil, China, India and Slovakia and inflicting an estimated $2.5 billion hit to the British economy.
Jul 15, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Summit Establishes Managed Competition Framework
The Trump-Xi summit produced a framework Xi labeled 'constructive strategic stability,' establishing boards of trade, investment, and AI dialogue intended to define terms of managed competition.
Jul 15, 2025
Escalating
Other
Chinese Open-Source AI Models Capture Global South Market Share
Chinese open-source AI models — principally Alibaba's Qwen and Moonshot AI's Kimi K2.6 — have achieved dominant global usage metrics, with Qwen exceeding 50% of open-source model downloads worldwide and Kimi topping the OpenRouter usage leaderboard.
Jul 14, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
Kremlin Internet Throttling Triggers Domestic Dissent Ahead of Russian Parliamentary Elections
Russian authorities have blocked or throttled mobile internet across most regions and restricted major foreign apps including Telegram, YouTube, WhatsApp, and Facebook, citing wartime security rationale.
Jul 14, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Trump Administration Officials Systematically Deploy 'Hoax' Framing Against Institutional Reality
Senior U.S. officials — including the President, FBI Director, Director of National Intelligence, and Secretary of Defense — have institutionalized the use of 'hoax' designations to delegitimize verified intelligence, journalism, and legal proceedings.
Jul 10, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Five Eyes Issues Joint Warning on Chinese LinkedIn Recruitment Operations
The Five Eyes intelligence alliance — comprising the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand — issued a joint threat bulletin warning that Chinese military intelligence is systematically using LinkedIn and professional networking platforms to recruit Western defense and government personnel.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
China Launches Global AI Governance Action Plan and WAICO Proposal
Chinese Premier Li Qiang unveiled a thirteen-point Global AI Governance Action Plan and proposed a World AI Cooperation Organization (WAICO) at Shanghai's World Expo Exhibition & Convention Center in July 2025.
Jul 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Beijing Visit Amid Fractured US Alliance Architecture
President Trump travels to Beijing with the US alliance structure under significant strain, as traditional partners have independently pursued bilateral commercial deals with China worth billions in export orders.
Jul 1, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
China Mobilizes Overseas Security Architecture Amid U.S. Order Decline
China's Ministry of State Security, under Minister Chen Yixin, has issued a directive to build an integrated overseas security protection system 'across the entire chain,' codifying and expanding China's capacity to protect BRI investments, nationals, and strategic assets globally.
Jul 1, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
Trump Administration Systematic Dismantlement of U.S. Soft-Power Infrastructure
The Trump administration has pursued a coordinated dismantlement of U.S. soft-power assets: abolishing USAID, withdrawing from 60+ international organizations, leaving diplomatic posts vacant, suppressing Voice of America, restricting foreign student access to U.S. universities, and substituting coercive tariff threats and military force for diplomatic engagement.
Jul 1, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Foreign Policy Institutional Degradation Under Trump Second Term
Senior foreign policy practitioners diagnose a structural breakdown in U.S. national security policymaking under Trump's second term, citing the hollowing of the interagency process, devaluation of professional expertise, and hyper-personalized executive decision-making.
Jul 1, 2025
Stable
Military
Russia Expands Limited Intelligence and Military Support to Iran During U.S.-Iran Conflict
The discussion indicates Russia is likely providing at least some intelligence support to Iran and has transferred improved drone know-how derived from earlier Iranian systems.
Jul 1, 2025
Mixed
Sanctions
U.S.-China Strategic Stalemate and Parallel Decoupling Race
Following the Trump-Xi summit, U.S.-China relations have stabilized into a fragile truce that rolled back certain tariffs but left structural friction intact.
Jun 30, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. State Department Orders Embassies to Counter Foreign Influence Campaigns
The State Department issued a diplomatic cable signed by Secretary Rubio directing all U.S. embassies and consulates to intensify counter-influence operations against foreign adversary disinformation.
Jun 27, 2025
Escalating
Military
Britain and Norway Conduct Covert North Atlantic Mission to Deter Russian Undersea Surveillance
Britain disclosed a covert joint operation with Norway and other allies to monitor and deter Russian undersea activity near critical North Atlantic cables and pipelines.
Jun 25, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
NATO Hague Summit Defense Investment Commitments
At the 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, allies committed to spending 3.5 percent of GDP on defense plus an additional 1.5 percent on defense-related infrastructure, cyber resilience, and industrial capacity by 2035.
Jun 24, 2025
Escalating
Military
Trump Issues Escalatory Ultimatum to Iran
The US president publicly threatened catastrophic destruction if Iran does not accept US demands, while senior US officials signaled additional coercive options remain available.
Jun 23, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Israel Expands Air Campaign Against IRGC Leadership and Iranian Strategic Infrastructure
Israel conducted a coordinated wave of strikes in and around Tehran and southern Iran, killing two senior IRGC officials, damaging airports used by the Quds Force, and hitting major petrochemical facilities.
Jun 18, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Mobilizes Civilian Shields Around Infrastructure Under US-Israeli Strike Threat
Iranian authorities publicly mobilized civilians to protect power infrastructure as US and Israeli strikes hit transport, energy, and industrial targets and threatened broader attacks unless Tehran reopened the Strait of Hormuz.
Jun 11, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump State Visit to Beijing — Xi Ceremonial Reception and Bilateral Talks
President Trump conducted a state visit to Beijing, receiving an unusually elaborate ceremonial reception including a 21-gun salute, Zhongnanhai access, and a state banquet — signals Beijing reserves for its highest-priority bilateral relationships.
Jun 9, 2025
Escalating
Legal
UK Foreign Influence and Proxy Criminalization Law Imminent Entry into Force
The UK government announced that new legislation criminalizing proxy activity on behalf of hostile states — including Iran, Russia, and China — is expected to enter into force in July 2025.
Jun 5, 2025
Escalating
Legal
Trump Signs NSPM-11 Directing AI Acceleration in National Security Enterprise
President Trump signed National Security Presidential Memorandum 11 on June 5, 2025, revoking Biden's NSM-25 and directing U.S. national security agencies to accelerate AI adoption under an executive accountability framework.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
Structural Collapse of Post-WWII Peace Architecture
The author diagnoses a systemic breakdown of the two normative load-bearing structures — prohibition on wars of aggression and the imperative against empire — that sustained eight decades of relative great-power peace.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
AI-Enabled Zero-Day Exploitation Marks Structural Shift in Offensive Cyber Landscape
For the first time, hackers used AI to autonomously discover and exploit a zero-day vulnerability capable of bypassing two-factor authentication across Google products, signaling a structural inflection in offensive cyber capability.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
CISA Advisory on Iranian ICS/PLC Attacks Against U.S. Critical Infrastructure
CISA and partner U.S. agencies issued an advisory warning that Iran-affiliated actors, specifically the IRGC-linked CyberAv3ngers group, had exploited vulnerabilities in programmable logic controllers to gain unauthorized access to U.S. water, energy, and local government systems.
May 27, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
Iran Begins Partial Restoration of 88-Day Internet Shutdown
Iran's government began partially restoring internet access after an 88-day nationwide shutdown imposed on national security grounds following the outbreak of war with the US and Israel on February 28.
May 26, 2025
Escalating
Military
North Korea Short-Range Ballistic Missile Launch, West Coast
North Korea launched multiple projectiles including at least one short-range ballistic missile from Chongju, North Pyongan Province, traveling approximately 80 kilometers toward west coast waters.
May 23, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Trump Administration Staffing of Federal Security Agencies with Loyalty-Based Appointments
The Trump administration is restructuring federal law enforcement agencies — particularly ICE and the FBI — by prioritizing political loyalty over professional qualification, mirroring a documented autocratic staffing pattern.
May 21, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Russia GPS Spoofing Infrastructure Expansion Across Baltic and Beyond
Russia expanded its GPS spoofing antennae from 3 to 36 since the start of 2025, creating persistent navigational interference across the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, and adjacent airspace.
May 20, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Putin State Visit to Beijing Amid Middle East Energy Shock
Putin arrives in Beijing for a state visit five days after Trump's own visit, seeking to deepen energy ties and revive the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline deal.
May 20, 2025
Unclear
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Summit and U.S.-China Tech Competition Review
Following a Trump-Xi summit, CSIS analysts convened to assess the structural implications for U.S.-China technology competition.
May 16, 2025
Stable
Other
CFR Future of American Strategy Initiative Launch
The Council on Foreign Relations launched its Future of American Strategy Initiative, a multi-year analytical effort to shape debate on the next era of U.S. international leadership.
May 16, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
Kataib Hezbollah Commander Charged with U.S. and Western Attack Plots
U.S. federal authorities unsealed charges against Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawood Al-Saadi, a senior Kataib Hezbollah commander, for directing at least 18 attacks in Europe and Canada and planning attacks on Jewish sites in New York City and Los Angeles.
May 15, 2025
Unclear
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Summit Beijing 2025
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in Beijing in a high-stakes bilateral summit observed by veteran China analyst Orville Schell.
May 15, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Produces Tacit Truce Without Formal Commitments
Trump and Xi held private meetings in Beijing, producing verbal signals on trade, Iran, AI governance, and Taiwan without issuing formal joint commitments.
May 15, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-China AI Safety Guardrails Dialogue Announced
Treasury Secretary Bessent announced from Beijing that the U.S. and China will initiate formal discussions on AI safety, including a protocol to prevent nonstate actors from acquiring advanced AI models.
May 14, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
GCHQ Director Public Warning on Russian Hybrid War and Chinese Tech Capabilities
GCHQ Director Anne Keast-Butler publicly characterized Russia as conducting reckless sabotage and assassination attempts on British soil and waging hybrid war against NATO countries, while simultaneously flagging China's emergence as a science and technology superpower with advanced intelligence, cyber, and military capabilities.
May 14, 2025
Unclear
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit: AI Crisis Management on Agenda
Presidents Trump and Xi are scheduled to meet in Beijing on May 14-15, with AI governance among the agenda items. The meeting occurs against a backdrop of CSIS research demonstrating that leading Chinese AI models — DeepSeek and Qwen
May 14, 2025
Unclear
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit — Cybercrime Cooperation Agenda Push
President Trump is scheduled to meet Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, with analysts and policymakers urging cybercrime cooperation to be elevated as a core bilateral agenda item.
May 14, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit: AI Capability Diffusion Enters Bilateral Agenda
U.S. President Trump's state visit to Beijing places AI capability diffusion — specifically model distillation and API-based extraction — on the bilateral agenda for the first time under the Trump administration.
May 8, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
PRC-Russia Eurasian Bloc Institutionalization, 2022–2026
From 2022 to early 2026, the PRC-Russia relationship transitioned from tactical alignment to functional bloc formation, anchored by financial system integration bypassing SWIFT, energy corridor expansion, military-industrial supply chain coupling, and coordinated multilateral positioning through SCO and BRICS.
May 5, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Fiona Hill Assessment of Trump-Putin-Xi Convergence and U.S. Power Erosion
Former NSC senior director and Putin scholar Fiona Hill publicly assessed that the simultaneous rise of high-risk-tolerance leaders in Washington, Moscow, and Beijing is producing a structural disruption to the post-WWII order that U.S. allies are struggling to navigate.
May 4, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Taiwan NSB Launches Open-Source Intelligence Recruitment Website Targeting Chinese Nationals
Taiwan's National Security Bureau launched a publicly accessible website inviting Chinese nationals — at home or abroad — to submit intelligence tips through a secure channel.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
Israel Counterintelligence Threat Level Elevated to Critical by U.S. Intelligence
U.S. intelligence agencies, led by the Defense Intelligence Agency, elevated Israel's counterintelligence threat rating to 'critical' — the highest level — surpassing all other U.S. allies and some adversaries.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
China Assessed as U.S. Cyber Peer Competitor Amid Strategic Posture Gap
Analytical assessment concludes that China has matured its cyber capabilities to peer-competitor status with the United States, with Dutch military intelligence formally labeling China as 'on an even footing' in offensive cyber.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Iran Deploys AI-Generated Information Warfare Campaign Targeting U.S. Domestic Divisions
Iran's state-affiliated media ecosystem, including IRGC-linked outlets and diplomatic missions, has launched a coordinated AI-generated content campaign targeting U.S. domestic fault lines.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Shadow-Earth-053 China-Aligned Dual-Track Cyber Espionage Campaign Disclosed
Trend Micro disclosed Shadow-Earth-053, a China-aligned cyber espionage campaign active since at least December 2024, targeting government and defense networks across Pakistan, Thailand, Malaysia, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and NATO member Poland.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Legal
UK Court Convicts Chinese State Intelligence Operatives in First-Ever Chinese Espionage Convictions
A UK court found Chung Biu Yuen, an office manager at the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office in London, and Chi Leung Wai, a former UK Border Force official at Heathrow, guilty of assisting a foreign intelligence service — the first convictions for Chinese espionage in British history.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Wartime Social Consolidation and Internet Isolation in Iran
Iran has maintained a near-total international internet blackout since January 2025, substituting a domestic intranet ecosystem with local analogues to major platforms.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Treasury Sanctions Cambodian Senator-Tycoon Kok An for Cyber Scam Network
The U.S. Treasury's OFAC sanctioned Cambodian CPP senator and tycoon Kok An, along with 28 individuals and entities including Crown Resorts and Anco Brothers, for operating scam compounds across Cambodia.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Amid Structural U.S.-China Strategic Divergence
The anticipated mid-May 2025 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing will likely produce a prolonged trade truce but no structural resolution to the bilateral rivalry.
Apr 30, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump-Xi Beijing Summit Yields Minimal U.S. Gains
Trump traveled to Beijing for a bilateral summit with Xi Jinping, producing a limited set of deliverables including a Board of Trade covering roughly 15 percent of bilateral goods trade, a Board of Investment with undefined scope, agricultural sales, and a confirmed 200 Boeing aircraft order.
Apr 28, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
MSS 'Foreign Forces' Attribution for 'Lying Flat' Triggers Mass Public Backlash
China's Ministry of State Security published an article attributing the 'lying flat' youth disillusionment movement to foreign-funded online influencers, framing domestic social pessimism as an externally engineered threat.
Apr 24, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iranian-Linked Proxy Network Targets Jewish Communities Across Europe
A newly emerged group claiming the name Harakat Ashab al-Yamin al-Islamiyya has claimed responsibility for 14+ attacks across Britain, Belgium, the Netherlands, France, and Germany, targeting Jewish institutions, vehicles, and community infrastructure.
Apr 23, 2025
Escalating
Legal
U.S. Coordinated Action Against Southeast Asian Scam Centers and Trafficking Networks
U.S. authorities — DOJ, OFAC, and State Department — announced coordinated sanctions, seizures, and enforcement actions targeting Southeast Asian fraud compounds and associated cryptocurrency networks, including seizure of a Telegram channel used for trafficking recruitment.
Apr 23, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
UN Secretary-General Candidate Rafael Grossi Addresses CFR
IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi, one of four nominated candidates for the next UN Secretary-General, made a public case for his candidacy at CFR, outlining a doctrine of proactive crisis management and continuous Security Council engagement.
Apr 22, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
UK Fast-Tracks State Threats Legislation Targeting Criminal Proxies
The UK government introduced emergency legislation to extend the National Security Act 2023, which was rendered inadequate by foreign states' use of criminal proxies rather than formal intelligence services.
Apr 22, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
MSS Attributes Youth 'Lying Flat' Trend to Foreign Ideological Infiltration
China's Ministry of State Security published a WeChat post blaming unnamed foreign organizations for funding a systematic 'lying-flat brainwashing' campaign targeting Chinese youth.
Apr 22, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
Dutch Intelligence Warns of Chinese Cyber Penetration of Western Defense Sector
The Dutch military intelligence service publicly assessed that China's cyber-espionage apparatus has reached parity with U.S. sophistication and is actively targeting Western military and defense-industrial networks.
Apr 21, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
North Korea-Russia Infrastructure and Institutional Integration Acceleration
North Korea and Russia completed a vehicular bridge linking the two countries on April 21, inaugurated a joint memorial museum honoring DPRK soldiers who fought in Ukraine, broke ground on a bilateral friendship hospital, and conducted high-level ministerial exchanges including a security sector meeting.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Grand Strategy Reassessment Under Structural Pressure
The United States faces a convergence of structural pressures — international power diffusion, liberal order decay, domestic strategic fatigue, and technological disruption — that collectively challenge the sustainability of its post-WWII global role.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Great-Power Deterrence Posture Structural Degradation Assessment
A structural assessment finds that U.S. capacity to deter great-power conflict is declining due to compounding deficits across soft power, alliance cohesion, and hard-power flexibility.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
Germany-Iran Threat Escalation: Intelligence-Political Rift Over Domestic Attack Risk
German state and federal intelligence officials are privately at odds with Chancellor Merz's government over the severity of Iran-sponsored attack risks on German soil, with intelligence chiefs characterizing threats as concrete and urgent while political leaders publicly downplay them.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Cyber Force Generation Commission Report Preview
A commission previewing findings on U.S. cyber workforce generation identified persistent structural deficiencies: talent shortages, fragmented institutional design, and barriers to government-private sector coordination.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes on Gulf Energy Infrastructure and Hormuz Disruption
Iranian strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf, combined with disruption to Strait of Hormuz transit, have produced what the IEA characterizes as the largest oil-supply shock on record.
Apr 20, 2025
De-escalating
Alliance
Russia-China Strategic Exploitation of U.S.-Israeli War on Iran
Russia and China are leveraging the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran to degrade American strategic position across multiple vectors simultaneously.
Apr 20, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
UK Investigates Suspected Iran-Linked Proxy Arson Campaign in London
UK counterterrorism police have opened an investigation into a series of linked arson and intimidation attacks targeting Jewish sites and Israel-linked properties in northwest London.
Apr 16, 2025
De-escalating
Military
IRGC Issues Threat Against US Corporate Infrastructure in the Gulf
The IRGC publicly listed 18 US technology and manufacturing companies operating in the Gulf — including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, and Boeing — threatening strikes against them in retaliation for continued US military operations against Iran.
Apr 15, 2025
Stable
Other
Assessment of Iran's Regional Influence Network Under Conflict Pressure
The source is an analytical discussion rather than a report of a discrete operational event. Its relevance lies in evaluating whether Iran can continue converting formal state authority and proxy ties into practical regional influence
Apr 11, 2025
Escalating
Military
United Kingdom Exposes Russian Subsea Infrastructure Surveillance Operation
The U.K. publicly disclosed that it and partner states tracked three Russian submarines for roughly a month in the North Atlantic, including specialist deep-sea platforms operating over critical pipelines and telecommunications cables.
Apr 10, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Shifts Retaliation Toward Hybrid and Maritime Coercion After U.S.-Israel Strikes
The analysis describes a post-strike environment in which Iran compensates for conventional military losses by escalating hybrid retaliation, cyber disruption, terrorism risk, and coercive control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 10, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Airstrikes Target Iranian Infrastructure; Iran Strikes Gulf State Facilities
U.S. airstrikes destroyed Iran's largest bridge and a major public health facility, while U.S.-Israeli strikes continued against Iranian targets.
Apr 9, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Disrupts Global Energy Flows
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted a major share of global oil and LNG flows, producing the sharpest energy-market shock in decades.
Apr 8, 2025
De-escalating
Military
United States Escalates Coercive Ultimatum Over Strait of Hormuz
The United States escalated from diplomatic pressure to explicit threats of devastating strikes on Iranian infrastructure unless Tehran fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and reportedly struck military targets near Iran's main oil export hub.
Apr 8, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Attacks Undermine Gulf Economic Deterrence Logic
The article assesses recent Iranian attacks on Gulf states, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as evidence that Tehran is willing to jeopardize major trade relationships and diaspora-linked commercial networks for ideological and coercive objectives.
Apr 7, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Iran Imposes Wartime Internet Blackout and Expands Internal Repression During Cease-Fire Talks
During the Iran war and amid a reported two-week cease-fire announced on April 7, the Islamic Republic imposed a near-total internet blackout while expanding coercive controls through checkpoints, arrests, execution orders, and threats against dissent.
Apr 4, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Iran-Israel Infrastructure War Escalation with Hormuz Blockade
The US-Israeli-Iran war has escalated into systematic mutual infrastructure strikes targeting steel plants, bridges, power grids, refineries, and desalination complexes across the region.
Apr 4, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Israel-Iran War: Infrastructure Targeting Phase and Strait of Hormuz Blockade
US and Israeli forces have degraded approximately 70 percent of Iran's steel production capacity and struck its tallest bridge, while Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas transit.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Myanmar Junta Technology Minister Signals Russian Partnership for Yatanarpon Cyber City Revival
Myanmar's junta Technology Minister Myo Thein Kyaw attended the 11th Digitalization of Industrial Russia Forum in Nizhny Novgorod, explicitly linking Russia's Neimark University 'Quantum Valley' initiative to Yatanarpon Cyber City and urging knowledge transfer for human resource development.
Apr 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Chinamaxxing Trend Reshapes Western Youth Perceptions of China
A viral social media trend across Western platforms — dubbed 'Chinamaxxing' — is organically amplifying pro-China narratives among Western, particularly European, youth without direct Beijing orchestration.
Apr 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Second Month
A U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran, initiated in late February 2025 following the June 2024 destruction of Iran's nuclear enrichment facilities, has entered its second month without achieving its primary objective of regime change.
Mar 9, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Chinese Embassy Manila Hybrid Pressure Campaign Against PCIJ
China's embassy in Manila launched a sustained pressure campaign against the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism following its reporting on pro-China influence operations in Philippine media.
Mar 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iran IRGC Drone Strikes on AWS Data Centers in UAE and Bahrain
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck two Amazon Web Services data centers in the UAE with Shahed drones on March 1, 2025, with an AWS facility in Bahrain also damaged.
Feb 28, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Operation Epic Fury Against Iran
The United States launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on or around February 28, 2025, deploying three carrier strike groups, conducting over 10,000 sorties against 13,000+ Iranian targets, destroying Iran's submarine fleet and over 150 warships, and imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports from April 13.
Feb 1, 2025
De-escalating
Political
Iran Post-Khamenei Command Fragmentation Creates Radiological Proliferation Risk
Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in February 2025, effective authority over Iran's nuclear and military apparatus dispersed among IRGC commanders across 31 provinces, severing centralized custodial control over approximately 440kg of 60%-enriched uranium and spent nuclear fuel at Bushehr.
Jan 27, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Iranian Intelligence Network Exposed Operating Under Press TV Cover in UK
Iranian state-linked operatives have been using Press TV's UK media presence as cover for intelligence gathering, propaganda dissemination, and target identification against dissidents and the Jewish community.
Jan 20, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Federal Research Funding Disruption Under Trump Administration
The Trump administration froze, terminated, or disrupted $1.4 billion in university research grants, attempted to shift funding allocation from merit-based peer review to political favoritism, and defunded research in politically disfavored fields including climate science and mRNA vaccines.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Post-Cold War Order Structural Dissolution
The liberal international order built after 1991 is undergoing structural dissolution across multiple dimensions simultaneously: great power rivalry between the U.S. and China has intensified, Russia's war in Ukraine has fractured European security architecture, a U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran has triggered regional conflagration, and democratic backsliding is accelerating in states previously considered stable.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
U.S. Analytical Advocacy for Offensive Hybrid Warfare Campaign Against CCP
A strategic analytical piece advocates for the United States to launch a deliberate, offensive hybrid warfare campaign targeting structural vulnerabilities within the CCP — including corruption networks, narrative dependency, strongman governance fragility, and diplomatic isolation.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China Fails to Convert U.S. Geostrategic Retreat into Durable Influence Gains
Since January 2025, Trump administration policies have created a structural vacuum in U.S. global leadership, theoretically advantaging China.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
European Cognitive Warfare Vulnerability Assessment and Institutional Reform Proposal
A structured analytical assessment identifies systemic gaps in Europe's capacity to detect, interpret, and respond to cognitive warfare operations conducted primarily by Russia and China.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
CSIS Proposes Integrated U.S.-ROK Cyber Resilience Framework
CSIS published a strategic framework report calling for a structural upgrade to U.S.-ROK cyber cooperation, arguing current bilateral mechanisms are inadequate against North Korean, Chinese, and Russian cyber operations.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
China Digital Silk Road Deepens Developing-World Engagement Despite Western Pressure
China's Digital Silk Road continues to expand across the developing world as recipient governments — including Ethiopia, Indonesia, and the UAE — deepen technology integration despite sustained Western pressure to disengage.
Jan 1, 2025
Mixed
Institutional
Syria Digital Infrastructure Reconstruction and Vulnerability Exposure
Syria's transitional government under Ahmed al-Sharaa has initiated a broad digital infrastructure rebuild following the lifting of major international sanctions in 2025, anchored by the $800 million SilkLink fiber-optic project, Nokia's 5G partnership, and integration into the Medusa Submarine Cable System.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iran Strait of Hormuz Closure as Strategic Template for LEO Denial
Iran's coercive closure of the Strait of Hormuz — achieved through limited force and threat credibility rather than domain superiority — is analyzed as a structural template for how adversaries could deny access to low Earth orbit.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Other
CSIS '25 Gamechangers' Strategy Series on U.S.-China Competition
A 58-member expert cohort convened by CSIS produced a strategic framework for countering China's sub-national influence infrastructure across technology, information warfare, and economic competition domains.
Jan 1, 2025
Mixed
Alliance
US-China Lunar Resource Competition Intensifies
The United States and China are pursuing competing permanent lunar bases with explicit resource extraction mandates, targeting Helium-3 deposits, water ice, and critical metals concentrated in the lunar south pole region.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Cyber
Escalating Foreign Targeting of U.S. Energy Infrastructure
Foreign state actors — primarily China and Iran — have pre-positioned cyber capabilities within U.S. energy infrastructure and escalated physical and cyber threat postures amid rising geopolitical tensions.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Freedom House Freedom in the World 2026 Report Release
Freedom House's annual Freedom in the World 2026 report documents the 20th consecutive year of global democratic decline, with 54 countries deteriorating against 35 improving.
Dec 1, 2024
Escalating
Institutional
US Counter-UAS Institutional Buildup: Safer Skies Act, Executive Orders, and JIATF-401
The United States has initiated a multi-track institutional response to growing domestic drone threats, including passage of the Safer Skies Act expanding C-UAS authority to state and local law enforcement, two Trump executive orders on UAS integration and critical infrastructure protection, creation of Joint Interagency Task Force 401 as the lead C-UAS coordination body, and a $250 million FEMA grant program targeting World Cup host states.
Oct 17, 2024
Escalating
Cyber
Russia GPS-Jams RAF Aircraft Carrying UK Defence Secretary Near Estonian Border
A Royal Air Force aircraft transporting UK Defence Secretary John Healey had its GPS navigation jammed during a three-hour flight near the Russian border while returning from Estonia.
Jan 1, 2023
Escalating
Diplomatic
Xi Jinping 50,000-Youth Initiative Activates Sponsored U.S. Student Visits to China
Xi Jinping's 2023 pledge to invite 50,000 young Americans to China over five years has begun generating concrete sponsored delegations, including fully Chinese-government-funded visits by Muscatine, Iowa high school students and a Johns Hopkins SAIS policy delegation.
Mar 1, 2018
Mixed
Cyber
Iran Sustained Internet Blackout Amid Protest Suppression
Iran imposed its longest and most intensive internet blackout in history, lasting nearly three months, in response to nationwide protests triggered by economic deterioration in December.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
All-Volunteer Force as a Structural Enabler of US War-Making
The piece argues that ending the draft in 1973 severed the political link between military action abroad and most American families, lowering the domestic cost of using force.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Software-Orchestration Layer as the Decisive Edge in Autonomous Warfare
The piece reframes battlefield advantage around the orchestration software that fuses sensors, assigns targets and coordinates mass drone operations, citing Ukraine's Delta and Russia's Svod and Glaz/Groza as operational systems.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Cyber
CSIS Analysis: U.S. Cognitive Warfare Deficit in Irregular Conflict
CSIS analysts assess that the United States is structurally behind adversaries in the cognitive domain of irregular warfare, citing Iran's recent viral video campaigns as evidence of the gap.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
US Defense Industrial Base Wartime Footing Progress Assessment
The US Pentagon, having declared a wartime industrial footing goal in November 2025, has made measurable progress in attracting new and nontraditional defense firms, building munitions magazine depth through a high-low mix strategy, investing in rare earth mine-to-magnet supply chains outside Chinese control, and driving foreign military sales.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
Structural Fracture of the Liberal International Order Under US Hegemonic Decline
The liberal international order — built on US dominance at the postwar apex — has reached a structural inflection point as American hegemony erodes and China rises as a near-peer competitor.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Disaster-Policy Pivot Framed as Threat to American Power
A think-tank analysis frames the Trump administration's shift toward devolving disaster preparedness and response to states as a structural risk to U.S. power, after a year of cuts the author calls chaotic austerity.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
UAE-India G42 Sovereign AI Supercomputer Deal
The UAE's state-owned G42, with the Mohamed Bin Zayed University and U.S. firm Cerebras, agreed to build an 8-exaflop AI supercomputer in India, funded by Emirati capital on American chips but governed by India's data-localization framework.
Date unknown
Escalating
Cyber
China Tightens Vocabulary Control Over Foreign Press via Access Leverage
Beijing leverages visa control, bureau expulsions, and surveillance to discipline how foreign newsrooms describe its political system, inducing pre-emptive softening of terms like 'authoritarian' and 'camps.' This converts market and physical access into a tool that shapes the global information record on China without overt falsification.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Consolidation of the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea Autocratic Axis
The deepening economic, military, and technological coordination among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea forms a revisionist heartland bloc aimed at rupturing the US-led rimland order.
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
U.S.-China Contest Over Global AI Stack Diffusion
The piece reframes the U.S.-China AI race as a struggle over which power's technology stack becomes the global default, arguing diffusion will determine long-run dominance more than frontier benchmarks.
Date unknown
Escalating
Cyber
US Restricts Foreign Access to Anthropic Frontier AI Amid Security Entanglement
CFR documents the deepening fusion of frontier AI and US national security: Anthropic withheld a model capable of finding over ten thousand vulnerabilities, embedded engineers with the NSA for offensive AI cyber operations presumably against China and Iran, and was ordered by Commerce to cut off foreign-national access to its newest models.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Cyber
US Lags Adversaries in Cognitive and Irregular Warfare
The analysis frames a persistent US gap: despite kinetic dominance, Washington has not contested the information environment where Russia, China, and Iran operate, as shown by Iran's viral campaigns souring anti-regime Iranians on the US after Operation Epic Fury.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
CSIS Framework for an Agile US Defense-Industrial Base
The CSIS analysis warns that the US drive to build deeper military inventory risks warehousing systems that adversaries render obsolete within months, citing Ukraine's rapidly outdated interceptor drones.
Date unknown
Mixed
Cyber
U.S.-China Quantum Technology Race Intensifies
The emerging quantum competition reshapes the structural balance between the United States and China across cryptography, sensing, and military positioning.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
China Consolidates Dominance in Global South Digital Infrastructure
China has positioned itself as the dominant provider of telecommunications infrastructure across large parts of the Global South through state-directed financing, bundled technology offerings, and sustained engagement, advancing commercial interests, surveillance reach, and technological advantage simultaneously.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Disengagement Reshapes Global Governance Architecture
The piece frames a structural erosion of the U.S.-anchored multilateral order as major powers pursue selective engagement, disengagement, or active dismantling of legacy institutions.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US Fiscal Withdrawal and Security Council Capture Accelerate UN Structural Decline
The United States under Trump has paid only $160 million of assessed UN regular budget dues, creating a shortfall exceeding $4 billion, while the Security Council endorsed Trump's Board of Peace framework for Gaza — effectively ceding multilateral authority to a US-controlled privatized body.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Collapse of Performative International Law Compliance Among Major Powers
The article diagnoses a structural inflection point in which the United States, Russia, and China have abandoned even the performative pretense of compliance with international law — a shift from strategic hypocrisy to open rejection.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Western Climate Framework Collapse and China's Clean Energy Market Dominance
A structural retreat from target-based climate governance is underway across Western institutions — the EU has abandoned combustion engine bans and weakened emissions targets, major banks are pricing 3-degree warming scenarios as business opportunities, and prominent climate advocates including Bill Gates and Mark Carney have publicly distanced themselves from the urgency framework.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Cyber
Iran National Football Team Deployed as Soft Power Instrument at 2026 World Cup
The Iranian government has systematically aligned the 2026 World Cup squad with state symbols and messaging, including a pro-government rally appearance, AI-generated propaganda video, and the 'Minab 168' branding tied to anti-U.S. war narratives.
Date unknown
Escalating
Cyber
SGCC and CSG Institutionalize Offensive-Defensive Cyber Teams
China's State Grid Corporation of China and China Southern Power Grid have established standing internal cyber units described as 'red and blue' teams, indicating institutionalized offensive and defensive cyber capacity within state-owned critical infrastructure operators.
Date unknown
Escalating
Cyber
PRC State Grid Operators Institutionalize Offensive Cyber Capabilities Against Western ICS Infrastructure
SGCC and CSG have established standing offensive cyber teams, procured red-blue team services across provincial and headquarters units from 2020–2025, co-drafted national SCADA cybersecurity standards incorporating MITRE ATT&CK frameworks, and developed grid cyber range platforms for attack simulation.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Sri Lanka Cybercriminal Network Displacement and Arrests
Sri Lankan authorities have arrested more than 1,000 foreign nationals in 2025 in connection with suspected cyberscam operations, with raids targeting coastal tourist areas, apartment blocks near Colombo, and properties in the Southern Province.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
China Accelerates Special Mission Aircraft Fleet Expansion Across ISR and EW Domains
China has systematically expanded its special mission aircraft fleet across AEW&C, electronic warfare, and ISR roles, with multiple new platforms revealed between 2024 and 2026 including the Y-9PT gunship analogue, Y-9GR multirole EW platform, and a new AEW&C type likely designated GX-19.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
CISA Capacity Degradation Ahead of 2026 FIFA World Cup
CISA's operational capacity was reduced to approximately 40 percent following a Department of Homeland Security shutdown, directly impairing its ability to coordinate cyber defense for the 2026 FIFA World Cup across three international jurisdictions and 16 host cities.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China's Strategic Patent Accumulation and IP Weaponization Campaign
China has systematically expanded its share of global patent filings and embedded itself in international standard-setting bodies as part of a deliberate strategy to convert IP into a tool of economic coercion.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
US House Passes DOMINANCE Act to Reduce Critical Mineral Dependence on China
The US House of Representatives passed the DOMINANCE Act, a bipartisan bill that would establish a Bureau of Energy Security and Diplomacy within the State Department to coordinate US critical mineral and energy strategy with allies.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Ukraine-Russia Battlefield Deployment of AI Orchestration Layers (Delta, Svod, Glaz-Groza)
Both Ukraine and Russia have fielded AI-enabled battlefield management software — Ukraine's Delta and Russia's Svod/Glaz-Groza complex — that fuses sensor feeds, deconflicts airspace, assigns targets, and orchestrates hundreds of thousands of unmanned platforms simultaneously.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
EU Digital Sovereignty Doctrine Displaces Open Internet Norm
Over the past decade, the European Union and its member states have systematically replaced the open-Internet governance norm with a digital sovereignty framework that centralizes state control over online speech, data infrastructure, and platform behavior.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Xi-Kim Summit Strengthens China-North Korea Alignment
A summit between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un has further consolidated the China–North Korea bilateral relationship, reinforcing the broader CRINK alignment.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Hoffman Congressional Testimony on U.S. Counterterrorism Architecture Erosion
Dr. Hoffman testified before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence that the post-9/11 counterterrorism architecture is being systematically dismantled through budget cuts, personnel attrition
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
China's Structural Embeddedness in Latin American Strategic Sectors
Over two decades, China has embedded itself into Latin America's ports, telecommunications networks, energy systems, critical mineral supply chains, and digital infrastructure — creating durable structural leverage that does not depend on military presence.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Legal
U.S. Citizen Pleads Guilty to Acting as Unregistered Chinese Government Agent
Thomas Pauken II, a U.S. citizen who worked as a journalist for Chinese state media, pleaded guilty to operating as an unregistered agent of the Chinese government within the United States.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Structural Transition from U.S.-Led Unipolar Order to U.S.-China Bipolarity
The article argues that the U.S.-led liberal international order has already collapsed, driven by the incremental rise of Chinese power and the domestic political consequences of globalization in Western democracies.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
CSIS Commission Advances Case for Independent U.S. Cyber Force
The CSIS Commission on U.S. Cyber Force Generation has produced analysis advocating for a dedicated military service branch for the cyber domain
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Escalating Domestic Extremist Drone Threat and Regulatory Gap Identified
A structural convergence of cheap commercial drone technology, AI-assisted navigation, 3D printing, and encrypted communications has materially lowered the capability threshold for domestic extremist actors to conduct surveillance, IED delivery, and infrastructure attacks.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Atlantic Council Commission Issues US AI Leadership Erosion Assessment
The Atlantic Council's GeoTech Center published a commission report documenting structural deterioration in the US AI innovation base, citing stagnant federal R&D funding at $3.3 billion annually, a widening compute gap between academia and industry, and Chinese open-source models surpassing US models in global downloads by end of 2025.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Taiwan-Poland Comparative Security Research Exchange
A Polish security researcher completed a research stay in Taiwan focused on cybersecurity, cognitive warfare, and crisis governance, producing comparative analysis of hybrid threat environments facing Taiwan and Poland.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
China Embeds Trade Data Ecosystem in Global Logistics Infrastructure
China's LOGINK, Cainiao, and eWTP platforms have achieved systemic integration into global trade infrastructure through bilateral agreements, WCO-funded workshops, and ISO standards chaired by Alibaba personnel.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US Military C-C5ISRT Capability Gap Assessment and Reform Roadmap Published
Atlantic Council analysts assess that the US joint force lacks the doctrinal, organizational, and acquisition infrastructure to counter adversary C5ISRT operations during the competition phase.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
2026 FIFA World Cup Terrorism Threat Assessment
The 2026 FIFA World Cup — spanning 16 host cities across the United States, Canada, and Mexico over 39 days — presents a structurally diffuse terrorism threat environment with no singular dominant threat actor.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
EU-China Strategic Communication Breakdown and Policy Drift
Europe's China policy has drifted into a reactive, fragmented posture defined by security-driven public rhetoric and ad hoc crisis management, while lacking sustained high-level strategic engagement.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
China's Airtight Digital Closure Consolidates as Structural Condition
China has constructed a surveillance and information-control architecture — fiber-optic gateway inspection, biometric transaction linkage, state-mediated digital platforms, and real-time exit-ban infrastructure — that the author argues has achieved what 2,200 years of Chinese statecraft could not: a technically airtight closure.
Escalating / Global
Washington and Beijing race to lock in supply chains, legal coercion tools, and Pacific access as the structural competition hardens.
War / Global
ISWAP loses its top two commanders while ISGS strikes Niamey airport twice and jihadist reach expands into Nigeria's Yoruba southwest.