Escalating / Global
US-China Strategic Competition
Trump-Xi Washington summit imminent as China ramps gray-zone pressure and the US-China balance shifts toward Beijing across key domains.
Red Sea and Hormuz
Since late 2023, a handful of waterways carrying most of the world's seaborne trade have become contested military space.
Houthi forces in Yemen, armed and guided by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, began striking commercial vessels in the Red Sea after the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, while IRGC naval units have seized tankers and threatened closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The United States and United Kingdom lead Operation Prosperity Guardian to defend the lanes. China and Russia stay out, transiting freely while the West burns munitions and warship-hours.
The fight is over who pays the cost of keeping global trade moving.
Militants destroyed the Saudi East-West pipeline on or around September 16, eliminating the most consequential Hormuz workaround and forcing the kingdom's export flows back onto the strait Iran now controls through its Persian Gulf Strait Authority.
That authority has institutionalized a transit-fee regime over six months, striking tankers that bypass the process and reporting several hundred vessels engaging with it.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The Saudi East-West pipeline's destruction is the conflict's most consequential single event since the Hormuz closure.
China's pre-summit meeting with Iran's foreign minister follows a pattern of signaling usable influence over Tehran to Washington.
Saudi Arabia's first combat use of Chinese ballistic missiles in Yemen marks a structural shift in Gulf procurement logic: Riyadh is diversifying its deep-strike supply chain away from the American monopoly.
Houthi attacks disrupt an estimated 15–20% of global container shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, forcing major carriers including Maersk and MSC to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, adding roughly 10–14 days and significant costs per voyage.
The United States and United Kingdom launch Operation Prosperity Guardian and conduct direct airstrikes on Houthi missile and drone infrastructure inside Yemen, marking the first sustained Western military campaign against a proxy force in defense of commercial sea lanes.
China and Russia decline to join Western maritime coalitions, with Chinese naval vessels maintaining independent Red Sea transits largely unmolested by Houthis, reinforcing perceptions that both powers benefit strategically from prolonged Western resource expenditure and shipping disruption.
Following the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, Houthi forces in Yemen begin launching drones and missiles at commercial vessels in the Red Sea, declaring the campaign a blockade against Israel-linked shipping in solidarity with Gaza.
A series of tanker attacks and seizures in the Strait of Hormuz, attributed to Iran, push global oil markets into volatility and trigger a US-led maritime security coalition, Operation Sentinel, highlighting how chokepoint threats can rapidly escalate into multinational standoffs.
Piracy and irregular maritime attacks in the Strait of Malacca peak at over 37 incidents annually, prompting a trilateral patrol agreement between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore that partially stabilizes the corridor but does not resolve underlying South China Sea territorial competition.
Iran begins developing anti-ship missile capabilities and repeatedly threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, establishing the waterway as a persistent geopolitical pressure point tied to nuclear and sanctions disputes.
Iran provides weapons, targeting intelligence, and operational guidance to Houthis; US leads Operation Prosperity Guardian coalition
Sep 18, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Lee Publicly Rejects US Demands for Korean Forces in Iran War
Lee declared there will be no deployment of troops or military assets to intervene in the war against Iran, offering instead to widen the scope of a destroyer already operating off Somalia solely to protect Korean tankers and commercial vessels.
Sep 18, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
South Korea Rules Out Military Deployment to Middle East War
Lee Jae Myung stated flatly that South Korea will not deploy military assets in any form that would involve it in the war with Iran, while leaving open an expanded shipping-protection role drawing on the existing anti-piracy presence off Somalia.
Sep 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US Approves $24bn Sale of 48 F-35 Fighter Jets to Saudi Arabia
The State Department approved and announced the sale of nearly 50 F-35s to Saudi Arabia, a policy reversal on a platform Washington had withheld to protect Israel's legally mandated qualitative military edge.
Sep 17, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Forces Press Toward Marib and Taiz After Red Sea Coast Seizure
Houthi forces expanded their offensive toward Marib and Taiz after capturing territory near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, with Saudi aircraft flying dozens of strikes on Taiz and Hajjah and the group claiming to have downed a Saudi F-15 over Marib.
Sep 16, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Aviation Sanctions Force Iranian Carrier to Halt Regional Routes
Iran's largest private carrier notified travel agencies it would suspend flights to Oman and Turkey, citing decisions by those countries' aviation authorities rather than sanctions.
Sep 16, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. House Passes Graham Russia and Iran Sanctions Act
The House passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 on September 16 after Senate passage on August 7, sending it toward the president's desk.
Sep 16, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Claim Downing of Saudi F-15 Over Marib
Houthi forces announced they had shot down a Saudi F-15 over Marib and circulated video showing charred aircraft wreckage.
Sep 16, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
China Hosts Iranian Foreign Minister Days Before Trump-Xi Summit
China's top diplomat met Iran's foreign minister in Beijing, repeating calls to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz while declining to assign blame to any country.
Sep 16, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Claim Saudi F-15 Downing as Saudi Arabia Reports Drone Intercept Near Mecca
The Houthis said they downed a Saudi F-15 over Yemeni territory with a locally produced missile, hours after the Saudi-led coalition said it destroyed a Houthi drone south of Mecca as it headed toward restricted airspace over the city.
Sep 15, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
United States Approves $2.8bn Heavy Bomb Package for Israel
Washington approved a $2.8bn munitions package for Israel comprising 20,000 MK-84 and 20,000 BLU-117 one-ton bombs plus 20,000 I-2000 penetrator warheads, and routed it to congressional committees for informal review.
Sep 15, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
House Passes Third Iran War Powers Resolution
The House voted 220-204 to direct the administration to end the Iran war or seek explicit authorization, the fifth time a chamber majority has done so.
Sep 15, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Congressional Budget Office Estimates $38 Billion Iran War Cost and Interceptor Depletion
The CBO put the Iran war's cost at roughly $38 billion through August 1, with $2 billion to $3 billion monthly thereafter and at least five years to rebuild stockpiles.
Sep 15, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Seize Perim Island and Mokha as Saudi-Houthi Strike Exchanges Widen
Saudi Arabia and the Houthis accused each other of attacks with casualties on both sides, with Riyadh reporting strikes on three cities that injured thirteen people and the Houthi-run health ministry reporting three killed by Saudi airstrikes in Taiz.
Sep 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
U.S. Forces Destroy Iranian Boats Attempting Seizure of Naval Surface Drone
Iranian small craft tried to take possession of a U.S. Saildrone unmanned surface vessel in waters off Hormozgan province and were destroyed by U.S. Central Command forces.
Sep 14, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Somaliland President Runs Washington Campaign for US Recognition
Somaliland's president escalated a two-week Washington visit into a public case for US recognition, with a keynote at a conservative think tank, a hosting by Taiwan's de facto embassy, and prior appearances at a Middle East dialogue summit and a reception at the Israeli ambassador's residence.
Sep 12, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
BRICS Summit Convenes in New Delhi With Iran Inside the Bloc
Leaders of the expanded BRICS grouping met in New Delhi while Iranian and Houthi action on the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea pushed oil above 100 dollars a barrel.
Sep 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Forces Seize Mocha and Red Sea Coastal Towns in Western Yemen
Houthi forces advanced along Yemen's western Red Sea coast, taking a string of towns including the port of Mocha and islands offshore, pushing their control to the approaches of the Bab al-Mandab strait.
Sep 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran and Allies Take Position Astride Both Middle East Oil Export Routes
Iranian-allied Houthi forces captured a Red Sea island, giving them a perch over the second of the region's two oil export corridors, while a drone strike from Iraqi territory forced the temporary shutdown of the Saudi pipeline to Red Sea ports.
Sep 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Offensive in Taiz Displaces 46,000 and Takes Mokha and Bab al-Mandab Foothold
Fighting between the Houthis and the internationally recognised government displaced more than 46,000 people in a week, concentrated in Taiz province, breaking the partition that had held since the 2022 UN-brokered ceasefire.
Sep 11, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Houthi Strikes on the Saudi East-West Pipeline Close the Last Hormuz Workaround
Houthi forces seized coastal positions and islands in southwestern Yemen and are reported to have attacked the Saudi East-West pipeline itself, alongside continued strikes on tankers staging near Yanbu.
Sep 11, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Modi and Putin Deepen India-Russia Partnership on Summit Eve
The Indian and Russian leaders met for the second time in two weeks in New Delhi, agreeing to strengthen their partnership across energy and defense and touring an industrial fair spanning nuclear, aviation, space and banking.
Sep 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Reach Perim Island, Threatening Saudi Red Sea Export Corridor
Houthi forces reportedly reached Perim Island, which sits in the middle of the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Saudi Arabia had shifted the bulk of its crude exports away from the Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu after Hormuz was effectively closed
Sep 10, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Forces Capture the Red Sea Port of Mokha
Houthi forces captured Mokha, the Red Sea port about 50 miles north of the Bab el-Mandab Strait that ships must pass to reach the Suez Canal.
Sep 10, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Saudi Arabia Shuts East-West Pipeline After Attacks
Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline after it was attacked multiple times on Thursday, with injuries reported. The line was the kingdom's means of continuing crude exports after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz
Sep 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Delivers Saudi Warning to Iran as Houthi Fighting Tests Trilateral Defence Pact
Pakistan passed a Saudi warning to Tehran urging restraint on the Houthis, and its army chief spoke with Iran's foreign minister about de-escalation.
Sep 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Refuses Saudi Request for US Strikes on Houthis
The Saudi crown prince telephoned the US president twice in one day urging strikes against the Houthis and was refused, with officials saying Washington does not intend direct military action against the group at this time.
Sep 10, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Forces Capture Port of Mokha Near Bab al-Mandeb
Houthi forces seized Mokha on Yemen's Red Sea coast, routing Saudi-backed Yemeni units and extending their hold along the approach to the Bab al-Mandeb strait.
Sep 10, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Capture Mokha Port on Yemen's Red Sea Coast
In a swift ground offensive the Houthis pushed government-allied forces out of Mokha and took the city and its port after several days of fighting.
Sep 9, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
IAEA Board Refers Iran to UN Security Council Over Undeclared Uranium Traces
Twenty-three of the 35 board members voted to refer Iran to the Security Council for non-cooperation with the investigation into uranium traces at undeclared sites, following the June 2025 finding of non-compliance.
Sep 8, 2026
Mixed
Military
US Strikes Iranian Tankers Off Kharg Island and Jask
American forces struck multiple Iranian oil tankers off Kharg Island and the port of Jask after attempted Iranian strikes on a US Navy warship.
Sep 8, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Missile and Drone Assault on Southern Saudi Cities
Houthi forces struck four Saudi cities with missiles and drones, wounding more than 70 people and damaging oil facilities tied to the Bab el-Mandeb logistics corridor and King Khalid Air Base near Khamis Mushait.
Sep 8, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Strikes Hit Southern Saudi Cities and Energy Facilities
Houthi forces struck civilian and economic targets in four cities near Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, injuring 73 people and causing fires that temporarily halted operations at energy facilities.
Sep 7, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Russia Claims $13 Billion in Arms Export Contracts as Verification Collapses
Rosoboronexport reported on September 7 that Russia signed $13 billion in weapons export contracts in the first half of 2026, claiming this equals all of 2025.
Sep 7, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Strikes US Navy Ships in Unacknowledged Second Wave
Iran attacked US Navy ships on Monday in an operation the US military has not acknowledged, according to US officials, following weekend missile strikes on an aircraft carrier and a destroyer.
Sep 6, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Iranian Oil Tankers as Tehran Threatens Sharper Retaliation
Washington struck Iranian oil tankers in response to Iranian attacks on American warships, and Tehran's lead negotiator answered with a warning of a faster and heavier response.
Sep 5, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Strikes U.S. Warships With Ballistic Missiles, U.S. Hits Iranian Oil Tankers
Iran targeted two U.S. military vessels with ballistic missiles for the first time, and American forces struck three Iranian oil tankers in response, sinking one.
Sep 5, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Somaliland President Arrives in Washington Seeking Recognition
Somaliland's president landed at Dulles with his defence, foreign affairs and aviation ministers on his first US visit since taking office, greeted by diaspora supporters and no US government representative.
Sep 5, 2026
Escalating
Military
United States Strikes Iranian Tankers as Hormuz Attrition Holds
The United States struck three Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for attempted attacks on two US warships, the latest exchange in a strait where at least twenty-three ships were hit across July and August and four merchant seamen were killed.
Sep 5, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Masked Anti-Immigration Blockade Halts Traffic at Port of Dover
Dozens of masked, black-clad demonstrators blockaded the A20 approach to the Port of Dover, stopping freight traffic and generating four miles of congestion before dispersing without arrests.
Sep 5, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Strikes Three Iranian Tankers After Missile Attack on Navy Warships
US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward two American warships, one of them an aircraft carrier, according to US Central Command.
Sep 5, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Ground Offensive Toward Bab al-Mandeb in Western Yemen
More than 60 people were killed in several hours of fighting in south-west Yemen, following 129 deaths the previous day, as the Houthis pressed an offensive across western Taiz and southern Hodeidah.
Sep 3, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Vice President Declines to Call Iran Conflict a War in White House Briefing
In the first White House briefing in weeks, the vice president said he would not call the Iran conflict a war, described recent strikes as occasional flare-ups and said Iran would decide when it ends.
Sep 3, 2026
Escalating
Military
South Korea Prepares Strait of Hormuz Naval Contribution
Seoul is reported to be readying a freedom of navigation contribution in the Strait of Hormuz, with cabinet review and a parliamentary consent motion expected this month and deployment targeted before year end.
Sep 2, 2026
De-escalating
Military
USS Abraham Lincoln Port Call in Thailand After 286-Day Iran Deployment
The Abraham Lincoln, one of four carriers used in the US air campaign against Iran, docked near Pattaya for a five-day port call after 286 days at sea without a liberty stop.
Sep 2, 2026
De-escalating
Military
USS Abraham Lincoln Ends 286-Day Deployment Amid U.S. Force Strain in Iran War
The nuclear-powered carrier docked in Thailand after 286 days at sea, most of it supporting the war against Iran, visibly degraded and with crew reporting food shortages, sewage failures and severe morale problems.
Sep 2, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Strikes US Bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain
Tehran answered renewed American bombing with a dispersed missile and drone salvo against US positions across four host states.
Sep 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
SCO Bishkek Summit Expands Security Mandate to Crime, Communications, and AI
At the twenty-fifth anniversary summit, ten member states signed 28 documents, approved regulations for a new Universal Center for Countering Security Challenges and Threats in Tashkent to replace the counterterrorism structure, and stood up an information security centre and a transnational organized crime branch in Bishkek.
Sep 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
IAEA Reports It Cannot Verify Iran's Enriched Uranium Stockpile
An internal report says inspectors remain locked out of Iran's enrichment facilities and the agency can no longer account for the size, composition or whereabouts of a stockpile last verified at 9,874.9 kilograms, including 440.9 kilograms at 60 percent enrichment.
Aug 31, 2026
Escalating
Other
Crude Prices Rise on Expectation of Prolonged Hormuz Disruption
Oil moved higher as traders priced a longer supply disruption following renewed U.S. and Iranian exchanges, including an American strike on missile launchers on an island in the Strait of Hormuz.
Aug 31, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
25th Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit Opens in Bishkek
The summit opened in Bishkek with an agenda on trade, digital connectivity and cultural exchange that tracks Chinese priorities, and with attendance by the Chinese, Russian and Iranian leaders that gives it an anti-American framing.
Aug 31, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. and Iran Exchange Strikes Over Strait of Hormuz Mining
U.S. forces bombarded Iranian troops on Larak Island preparing mine-armed rockets for the Strait of Hormuz, killing and wounding an unspecified number.
Aug 31, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Lavrov Declares NATO Arctic Activity a Direct Threat to Russian Security
Russia's foreign minister used a foreign ministry publication to label NATO exercises in the Far North aggressive and warn that incident risk is rising toward armed confrontation.
Aug 30, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Strikes Jordan With Ballistic Missiles as Amman Declines to Retaliate
Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired ballistic missiles at Jordan overnight Sunday, the latest in a campaign running since February that has included hundreds of drones and missiles and a July strike on the Azraq base that killed three American soldiers.
Aug 30, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Treasury Signals Weekly Secondary Sanctions Cadence Against Iran's Banking Channels
Washington announced an intent to issue secondary sanctions on a weekly cadence, beginning with banks holding Iranian money, and flagged full exclusion from dollar clearing as the escalation step.
Aug 30, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Forces Strike Iranian Rocket Launchers on Larak Island
American forces destroyed two Iranian rocket launchers positioned on Larak Island inside the Strait of Hormuz, breaking a weeks-long pause in direct strikes. Central Command said the launchers were being readied to fire.
Aug 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Somali Piracy Surge Follows Naval Redeployment to Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb
Two cargo vessels were seized in the Gulf of Aden within four days, bringing attacks this year to at least 13 and triggering unprecedented drone strikes against pirate groups. The escalation is the largest in more than a decade.
Aug 27, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Qatari Prime Minister Visits Tehran to Revive Hormuz Mediation
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani met Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Tehran to seek conditions for renewed dialogue and the restoration of marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Aug 26, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran and Oman Agree Revenue-Sharing Framework for Strait of Hormuz Transit
Tehran and Muscat agreed a revenue-sharing arrangement covering Hormuz transit, moving past the joint temporary navigational corridor and mine-clearing statement issued the previous day by adding the toll mechanism Iran had demanded.
Aug 25, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Iran and Oman Agree Interim Hormuz Transit Corridor
Oman's foreign minister flew to Iran and came away with the outline of a bilateral bargain establishing a temporary seven-mile transit corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, with inbound traffic through Iranian territorial waters, outbound through Iranian and Omani waters, and warships excluded.
Aug 25, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US Submits Saudi Nuclear Cooperation Agreement to Congress
The administration transmitted a landmark nuclear cooperation accord with Saudi Arabia to Congress for review, retaining a last-minute condition tying it to Saudi normalisation with Israel.
Aug 25, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Mediates Between Washington and Tehran on Hormuz and War Termination
Pakistan's army chief and interior minister concluded a Tehran visit focused on preventing further escalation, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and reaching a negotiated settlement to the US and Israeli war on Iran.
Aug 24, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US Submits Saudi Civil Nuclear Agreement to Congressional Review
Washington transmitted the US-Saudi 123 Agreement signed on July 22 to Congress, opening a 90-day review window. The thirty-year framework commits both sides to a two-year joint enrichment and conversion study
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Treasury Escalates Financial Campaign Against Iran
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an economic onslaught against Iran's global financial connections on August 24, restating a promise first made in April under Operation Economic Fury.
Aug 24, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Treasury Unveils Campaign to Sever Iran From the Global Economy
The US Treasury secretary unveiled a campaign to cut Iran off from the global economy, extending the economic front of the conflict beyond military measures.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Replaces Military Campaign Against Iran With Operation Economic Outcast
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a sustained campaign to isolate Iran and collapse its economy, replacing the air campaign that began on February 28 and failed to break the regime.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Targets Bank Melli Under Operation Economic Outcast
Washington escalated its economic campaign against Iran by demanding the closure of every foreign branch of Bank Melli and threatening secondary consequences for states that continue transacting with Tehran.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Unveils Operation Economic Outcast Against Iran
The U.S. Treasury announced a secondary sanctions campaign intended to isolate Iran globally after six months of air strikes failed to force capitulation.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Treasury Threatens Secondary Sanctions Across Five Iranian Sectors
Treasury announced it would target Iran's gold, digital asset, aviation, shipping and technology sectors and punish any country or entity transacting in them.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Washington Threatens Secondary Sanctions on Iran's Remaining Trade Partners
The Treasury Secretary was set to unveil a sanctions package aimed at isolating Tehran from the global economy after Trump threatened tremendous economic consequences for any country doing business with Iran.
Aug 24, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Strike on Saudi Tanker Off Yanbu
The Houthis struck a Saudi-operated vessel off Yanbu, the terminal Riyadh has been using to move oil around the Iranian closure of Hormuz.
Aug 24, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iran Vows Retaliation Against States Joining U.S. Economic Pressure Campaign
Iran's foreign ministry rejected an escalating American pressure campaign hours before the Treasury secretary was due to announce new isolation measures, and a senior security official warned that participation in that campaign would be treated as an act of war.
Aug 22, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iran Threatens Gulf Shipping Alternatives and US Commercial Assets Over Isolation Campaign
Rezaei told state television that neighbours joining the American economic war would be considered enemies and that Iran would target oil shipping routes serving as alternatives to Hormuz.
Aug 21, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Prepares Secondary Sanctions on Buyers of Iranian Oil
Washington signalled a move from direct sanctions on Iran to secondary sanctions on any state or firm purchasing Iranian oil, with Treasury set to detail the measures.
Aug 20, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Somali Pirates Hijack Suspected Iranian Shadow-Fleet Tanker Off Yemen
Seven armed pirates boarded an Eritrean flagged tanker linked to Iran's sanctions evasion fleet about 130 miles off Yemen and diverted it into Somali waters, the second hijacking in four days.
Aug 20, 2026
Stable
Military
USS George Washington Relieves USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea
American officials confirmed that the carrier George Washington has arrived in the Arabian Sea to replace the Abraham Lincoln, which held station for months without a port call.
Aug 19, 2026
Escalating
Other
China Launches First Scheduled Cargo Service on Northern Sea Route
A Chinese cargo ship left Qingdao carrying electric vehicles and renewable energy equipment on the first of eight planned Arctic transits to Europe this season.
Aug 19, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Trump Announces Expanded Economic Campaign Against Iran
The US president announced a sharply expanded economic campaign against Iran, framed as the most severe ever applied to a state, on the premise that Tehran's economy is near a breaking point.
Aug 19, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Trump Threatens Unprecedented Economic Warfare as Iran Refuses a Deal
The American president declared that Iran's refusal to reach a deal will bring economic warfare and isolation on an unprecedented scale.
Aug 18, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Halves South Korea Exercises and Sends Last Asian Carrier to the Gulf
Trump ordered a joint US-South Korea exercise cut in half without notifying Seoul, hinting at his relationship with Kim Jong Un and at pique over Seoul declining to assist Gulf operations.
Aug 18, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Emirates Announces Total Embargo on Transactions With Iran
The Emirates announced a total embargo on trade and transactions with Iran, citing regional escalations, after accusing Tehran of striking an Emirati tanker in the Strait of Hormuz and firing missiles toward its territory.
Aug 18, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Russia and Japan Trade Ambassadorial Summonses Over Kuril Islands
Moscow summoned Japan's ambassador on Tuesday, days after Putin travelled in person to the disputed archipelago north of Hokkaido and Tokyo summoned Russia's envoy in response.
Aug 18, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.A.E. Halts All Trade and Financial Transactions With Iran
The Emirati foreign ministry announced a halt to all trade and financial transactions with Iran, citing regional escalations and commitment to the integrity of the international financial system.
Aug 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Assesses Strikes on U.S. Assets in Europe if War Escalates
Regime insiders say Iranian forces have evaluated attacking American assets in southeastern Europe, including Bulgaria's Bezmer air base approved last month for U.S. refuelling aircraft, and targets in Cyprus, alongside plans to sever subsea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz.
Aug 18, 2026
Escalating
Military
Vessel Struck Exiting the Strait of Hormuz
A vessel leaving the Persian Gulf through Omani waters was hit by an unknown projectile, killing a crew member and damaging the engine room, with Omani coast guard assistance for survivors.
Aug 17, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Trump Dismisses Reports of Deteriorating Conditions Aboard USS Abraham Lincoln
At the White House the president rejected reporting on conditions aboard a nuclear carrier that has set a modern record for time at sea without a port call, attributing his account to an unnamed retired admiral.
Aug 17, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Orders Substantial Reduction in U.S. Participation in Korea Exercises
The U.S. president ordered a substantial cut to American participation in joint exercises with South Korea, calling them expensive and a hostile signal to Pyongyang, and citing his relationship with Kim Jong-un.
Aug 17, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Truce Framework Expires as Trump Threatens to Strike Oman
The memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran formally lapsed after disputes over its wording, leaving no negotiated ceiling on Iran's nuclear program.
Aug 17, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Strike Saudi Vessel Near Bab al-Mandab Strait
The Houthis claimed a missile strike on a Saudi military ship and four escort vessels at the Yemeni port of Mokha near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, and warned they would target Saudi forces on land and at sea.
Aug 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Declares Shift to Offensive Posture Over Strait of Hormuz Blockade
Tehran announced a shift from defensive to fully offensive posture on the day the 60-day window under its June memorandum with Washington expired, threatening a precise military strike to break the US naval blockade.
Aug 17, 2026
Escalating
Military
Trump Threatens Military Strikes on Oman Over Interference in Iran Talks
The US president threatened military strikes on Oman if it obstructs American efforts to reach a settlement with Iran, in remarks reported from a phone interview.
Aug 17, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. and Iran Miss Sixty-Day Deadline for Nuclear Deal Under June Cease-Fire
The United States and Iran let the sixty-day deadline from their June cease-fire lapse without a nuclear agreement, formalising the truce's collapse in the sixth month of war.
Aug 16, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Trump Cuts U.S.-South Korea Exercises to Restart North Korea Diplomacy
Trump ordered cuts to the annual joint exercises with South Korea over the weekend, reprising the concession he used before his 2018 and 2019 summits with Kim Jong-un.
Aug 15, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Gulf States Signal Security Diversification Away From Washington
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain have converged in frustration with U.S. management of the Iran war, and some have begun debating whether hosting large American installations still serves them.
Aug 14, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Marcos Signals Possible Joint Oil and Gas Exploration With China Before 2028
Marcos told a Manila media luncheon that joint offshore exploration with China is a distinct possibility before 2028 and that talks are progressing.
Aug 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Ballistic Missile Strike on Mocha Port and Drone Attack on Najran
The Houthis fired six ballistic missiles at the Red Sea port of Mocha, killing four civilians and burning fishing boats, and claimed a separate drone strike on an energy facility in the Saudi city of Najran.
Aug 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Navy Prepares to Relieve USS Abraham Lincoln After Nine-Month Middle East Deployment
The U.S. military is preparing to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln with the USS George Washington after the Lincoln spent more than 250 consecutive days at sea, repeatedly extended and without a significant port visit since leaving San Diego in November.
Aug 13, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
US Signals Unprecedented Economic Isolation Package Against Iran
Washington's Treasury chief pre-announced a further tightening of economic measures on Iran, explicitly pairing them with the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Aug 13, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Mojtaba Khamenei Rebuilds Iran's Senior Military and Security Command
Iran's supreme leader appointed a new Supreme National Security Council secretary, armed forces chief of staff, IRGC commander, IRGC navy commander, and Basij head in a single sweeping reorganization.
Aug 13, 2026
Escalating
Military
Russia Strikes Ukraine's Izmail Danube Grain Port
Russian strikes overnight damaged infrastructure at Izmail, Ukraine's largest Danube grain shipment port near the Romanian border, setting off a fire and cutting power in the southeast of the city.
Aug 13, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Iran Publicly Claims Control of the Strait of Hormuz
A senior Iranian paramilitary commander declared through a semi official outlet that the Strait of Hormuz sits under Iranian control and management, directly contradicting the US president's claim of total American control a day earlier.
Aug 12, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Ukraine Begins Targeting Russian Water Distribution Networks
Kyiv identified Russia's degraded water infrastructure as a chokepoint and began striking distribution networks, layering a deliberate attack onto an already worsening scarcity problem.
Aug 12, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Khamenei Appoints Hard-Line Veterans to Iran's Top Security Posts
Iran's supreme leader emerged from almost six months in hiding to install veteran commanders from the revolutionary generation across the security apparatus, including a former Revolutionary Guards chief at the Supreme National Security Council and a former intelligence chief over the Basij paramilitary network.
Aug 12, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Russian Strikes on Cargo Vessels Halt Shipping From Odesa
Russia has attacked at least 50 cargo ships in two months, killing more than 30 civilians and stopping nearly all traffic through Odesa at harvest time.
Aug 12, 2026
Escalating
Military
Trump Declares Total U.S. Control Over Strait of Hormuz
The declaration frames an American naval blockade as a durable position rather than a temporary deployment, and explicitly states an intention to keep it.
Aug 12, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Trump Claims U.S. Control of Hormuz as Iranian Attacks Keep Traffic Halted
The claim of total control is contradicted by the behavior of commercial operators, who have largely stopped transiting the strait.
Aug 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Close Bab al-Mandab to Saudi Shipping and Strike Saudi Territory
Houthi forces killed six people aboard a cargo ship in the Bab al-Mandab in the week of 9 August, the first fatalities since they entered the Iran war in earnest, after striking a Saudi oil refinery at Jazan days earlier.
Aug 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Missile Strike Kills Four on Cargo Ship in Bab al-Mandab Strait
Houthi missiles hit the food-carrying cargo vessel Tihamah transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait, killing three Pakistani and one Indonesian crew member.
Aug 11, 2026
Unclear
Military
Container Ship Struck by Missile in Gulf of Oman off Pakistan
British maritime trade authorities reported an incident involving a container ship and military forces in the Gulf of Oman, initially logged as a tanker before reclassification.
Aug 10, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
NOAA Ends Arctic Report Card, Vacating US Arctic Data Leadership
The United States terminated federal support for the Arctic Report Card, a twenty-year data programme drawing on more than a hundred international scientists and organisations, and told others to take the lead.
Aug 10, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Covertly Extracts Trump From Turkey Over Iranian Threat
Facing what officials assessed as a credible Iranian threat against the president on any aircraft, US officials concealed Trump in a catering cart fitted to the belly of his announced plane, moved him by car to a C-32A military jet and flew him secretly to the United Kingdom.
Aug 10, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Pentagon Policy Chief Reaffirms Indo-Pacific Posture and Demands Allied Burden-Sharing
Speaking in Manila at the start of a Southeast Asian trip that also covers Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia, the U.S. undersecretary of defense for policy said Washington is digging in rather than leaving the Indo-Pacific.
Aug 10, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Says Hormuz Stays Closed Until United States Lifts Blockade and Sanctions
Iran's foreign ministry said the Oman talks on safe shipping passage were separate from reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed until Washington meets conditions set out by a senior national security official.
Aug 9, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Strikes Damage Yemeni Port of Moktah as Iran Directs Militia Escalation
Houthi forces struck the Yemeni city of Moktah, killing at least eleven people and damaging its port, in the period Arab intelligence services identified as the start of an Iranian escalation through militia allies.
Aug 9, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Adopts Low-Key Iran Posture as Regional Partners Break Ranks
Trump described a new low-key Iran strategy relying on Iranian inflation and insolvency rather than fresh military threats, while maintaining two carrier groups and a naval blockade that has redirected 53 commercial vessels.
Aug 9, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Says Oman Shipping-Lane Deal Near Completion While Hormuz Stays Closed
Iran's foreign minister announced that a bilateral arrangement with Oman on new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz was close to completion, while restating that full reopening depends on American concessions.
Aug 9, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Resume Missile and Drone Strikes on Mocha
Houthi forces resumed ballistic missile and drone attacks on Mocha on Yemen's Red Sea coast, claiming Saudi troop positions and weapons depots as targets while Yemeni government forces reported strikes on residential areas.
Aug 9, 2026
Escalating
Political
Iran Appoints Mohsen Rezaei to Lead Supreme National Security Council
Iran replaced the secretary of its Supreme National Security Council with a commander who led the Revolutionary Guards through the 1980s war and most recently advised the supreme leader.
Aug 9, 2026
Stable
Other
Fire Extinguished at Saudi Refinery Facility in Jizan
A fire broke out early Sunday at a facility belonging to the state oil company's Jizan refinery and was extinguished by in-house firefighting teams. The energy ministry reported no injuries and did not disclose a cause.
Aug 8, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran's New Conditions Block Expected Hormuz Reopening
Washington had spent weeks preparing to declare victory in the Iran war on the assumption Tehran would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Aug 8, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Offensive into Marib and Hadramout Triggers Yemeni Counteroffensive
Houthi forces struck government military positions in the oil and gas provinces of Marib and Hadramout, killing at least seventeen soldiers, and the internationally recognized government mounted a counteroffensive two days later.
Aug 7, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Russian Strike Campaign Closes Odesa Ports and Black Sea Corridor
Sustained Russian drone and missile strikes hit Odesa city centre, the Chornomorets Stadium on August 7, regional rail lines, and port infrastructure, with officials counting more than seventy attacks on ports and over sixty on merchant vessels.
Aug 7, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan Sign Mecca Joint Defense Agreement
Three states that include two long-standing regional rivals signed a mutual defence agreement treating an attack on one as an attack on all.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey Sign Mecca Joint Defense Agreement
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey signed a mutual defense pact in Mecca treating an attack on one as an attack on all, the first formal regional security agreement produced by the United States-Iran war.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Senate Passes Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026
The Senate passed legislation codifying existing Russia sanctions and creating new authorities, including tariffs of up to 100 percent on third countries buying significant volumes of Russian energy and measures targeting the shadow tanker fleet.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey Sign Mecca Joint Defense Agreement
The three states signed a mutual defense pact in Mecca stipulating that an armed attack on any one is an attack on all, concluding nearly a year of negotiation.
Aug 7, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Senate Passes Russia Sanctions Bill With Tariff Authority
The Senate approved legislation targeting Russia's energy revenue by an 86 to 11 margin, authorizing tariffs of up to 100 percent on the top five purchasers of Russian oil and gas and on states that help circumvent existing sanctions.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Escalate Attacks on Saudi Shipping Through Bab el-Mandeb
The Houthis claimed responsibility for attacks that killed at least 17 Saudi-backed soldiers in eastern Yemen and injured civilians, and targeted Saudi tankers transiting from Red Sea ports through Bab el-Mandeb.
Aug 7, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan Sign Mutual Defense Pact
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a joint defence agreement under which an armed attack on any one of the three is treated as an attack on all.
Aug 6, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Mediators Doubt Iranian Diplomats Can Guarantee Hormuz Compliance
Arab mediators negotiating the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz say they fear Iranian diplomats lack the internal clout to guarantee compliance with any agreement, given pressure from hardliners in Tehran.
Aug 6, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran and Oman Near Deal Giving Tehran Oversight of Hormuz Entry
Iran said it is in the final stage of drafting a deal with Oman under which Tehran would oversee all traffic entering the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz while outbound traffic routes through Omani waters, within a 60-day framework requiring de-mining of the median lane to begin within 30 days.
Aug 6, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthi Missile and Drone Strikes Hit Marib and Hadramaut
Houthi forces launched a large number of drones and ballistic missiles at Yemeni government military camps in Marib and Hadramaut, the two oil-rich provinces the internationally recognised government still holds, with local media reporting dozens killed.
Aug 6, 2026
De-escalating
Cyber
Trump Denies US Munitions Depletion in Iran War
Trump denied reports of a US precision-munitions shortage arising from the Iran war and threatened long prison sentences for officials leaking stockpile data.
Aug 5, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
South Korea Declines Ukrainian Request for Air Defense Systems
Zelensky appealed publicly to Seoul for air defense systems on 5 August, stating that allied air-defense missile supplies this year have fallen to roughly one-third of 2025 levels.
Aug 5, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
Pentagon Orders Defense Industry to Accelerate Munitions Production
Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg gave defense contractors 21 days to submit accelerated production and capacity-expansion plans after the Iran war emptied American interceptor and cruise-missile magazines.
Aug 5, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Iran and Oman Near Agreement on Hormuz Transit Route
Iran's foreign ministry said geographic coordinates for a Hormuz transit route have been agreed with Oman and a joint statement is in final drafting.
Aug 5, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Claim Strike on Saudi Tanker and Threaten to Widen Red Sea Blockade
The Houthis said they fired ballistic missiles at a Saudi tanker near Yanbu and threatened to pursue Saudi shipping into the northern Red Sea toward the Suez Canal, claiming eight ships struck since declaring a blockade last month.
Aug 4, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. and Iran Move Toward Hormuz Agreement Through Qatari and Omani Mediation
Qatar confirmed active indirect negotiations with draft language circulating, reversing Tehran's denial of a day earlier.
Aug 4, 2026
Escalating
Military
Projectile Sinks Indian-Flagged Vessel Off Yemen
An Indian-flagged commercial vessel sank in the Red Sea off Yemen after being struck by a projectile, with all fourteen crew rescued by the Yemeni coast guard.
Aug 4, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Draft Agreement Circulates to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Qatari mediators confirmed that draft language for a Strait of Hormuz arrangement is circulating among the parties, and the United States Treasury secretary said a deal could be reached within a day.
Aug 4, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Qatar Confirms Indirect U.S.-Iran Mediation While Tehran Denies Direct Talks
Qatar said mediation with Iran and the United States is in progressive stages, coordinated with Oman and Pakistan, while Iran publicly denied any direct channel and said it is negotiating only with Muscat over passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Aug 4, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Domestic Support Collapses for U.S. War With Iran
Six months into the war with Iran, sixty percent of American voters oppose the military action and seventy-four percent say it has not been worth the cost, including roughly forty-three percent of Republicans.
Aug 4, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Hormuz Reopening Talks Stall Over Transit Fees as Another Ship Is Struck
Negotiations to reopen the strait bogged down over the question of fees for passage, while a further strike hit a vessel transiting the waterway.
Aug 3, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Poll Shows American Support for the Iran War Collapsing
A Reuters/Ipsos poll of 4,505 adults concluded August 3 found 50 percent expect American action in Iran to destabilize the Middle East against 17 percent expecting stability, with only 35 percent approving of the war.
Aug 3, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran and Oman Near Accord Ratifying Iranian Control of Hormuz Transit
Under the emerging arrangement, inbound vessels would transit a channel controlled by Iran near its coast and outbound traffic would use Omani waters, with a shared service fee that Tehran insists is not a toll.
Aug 2, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Cancels Threatened Escalation Against Iran After Gulf Pressure
Trump announced he had relented from a planned escalation, citing regional requests for delay and agreed parameters of a deal. Iranian officials rejected talks unless Washington returned to the earlier memorandum of understanding.
Aug 2, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran and Oman Near Arrangement on New Hormuz Shipping Route
Tehran says it is close to agreeing a new transit corridor with Oman while refusing to permit use of the southern route along the Omani coast, which it attacked to enforce.
Aug 2, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Producer Group Completes Return of Withheld Barrels With Sixth Output Increase
Oil producers and allied partners raised output for the sixth consecutive time, finishing the unwind of voluntary production cuts.
Aug 1, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Nigeria Orders Capital Market Operators to Sever Financial Ties With Iran
Nigeria's securities regulator directed capital market operators to cut or restrict financial ties with Iran and North Korea, citing terrorism-financing and money-laundering risk.
Aug 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Gulf Pressure Defers American Strikes on Iran as Hormuz Plan Advances
Regional governments exposed to Iranian retaliation persuaded Washington to hold off on a new attack while mediation on reopening the strait progressed.
Aug 1, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Cancels Planned Strikes on Iran Pending Hormuz Deal
The American president called off a threatened escalation against Iran, citing agreed parameters of a deal covering the strait and the nuclear file, one day after saying the United States would hit Iran hard.
Aug 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Tanker Disabled by Projectile at Strait of Hormuz Approaches
An unidentified projectile struck a tanker near Oman's Musandam Peninsula, damaging its engine room and leaving it unable to steer.
Aug 1, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Executes Coordinated Proxy Escalation Across Gulf, Suez, and Jordan
Iranian-aligned forces struck the largest Saudi oil facility, set two gas tankers alight at an Egyptian port near the Suez Canal, and fired missiles toward a base in Jordan housing American personnel.
Jul 31, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Allies Assess U.S. Heading for Strategic Defeat as Iran Consolidates Hormuz Control
In the war's sixth month Iran remains resolute under a more radical government, its nuclear and ballistic missile programs degraded but not destroyed, and the Strait of Hormuz effectively under its control, while the United States and Israel blame each other.
Jul 31, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Trump Vows Resumed Heavy Strikes on Iran to Force Negotiations
The U.S. president announced plans to resume heavy military strikes against Iran with the stated purpose of compelling the regime to negotiate, vowing to hit the country very hard.
Jul 30, 2026
Escalating
Other
CSIS Address Warns of Converging Pressures on Democratic Order
The assessment reads six forces as a single system: material disillusionment in Latin American democracies, Chinese surveillance architecture exported to Venezuela, Ecuador, and Bolivia, technology that lets small actors disrupt large ones, AI and robotics displacing labor faster than states can absorb it, an autonomy-driven revolution in military affairs, and a power transition the PRC is managing with confidence.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Strikes Collapse Qeshm Island's Tourism and Fishing Economy
A 2,000-pound American bomb destroyed a family home in the densely populated village of Chah-Tangou on Qeshm island on July 30, killing a couple and their two-year-old son with no military facilities in the vicinity.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Mark-84 Bomb Hits Residential Area on Qeshm Island
A 2,000-pound Mark-84 bomb struck a family home in a densely populated neighbourhood on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz overnight on Thursday, killing a husband, wife and their two-year-old son, with two other children pulled alive from the rubble.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Sixty-Seven Commercial Vessels Struck in Middle East Shipping Campaign
A tally of the maritime campaign in the Middle East conflict counts 67 commercial vessels struck, among them the Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker JV Innovation hit in May, whose crew partially abandoned ship.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
Indian Seafarer Families Demand Compensation From Both United States and Iran
Families of roughly a dozen Indian seafarers killed on commercial vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz called on New Delhi to file an immediate petition with the United Nations and demanded five million dollars per family from Washington and Tehran alike.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
American Strategic Ambiguity Collapses the June Iran Memorandum
The June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran, intended to pause fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz for a sixty-day negotiating window, failed over its wording.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran War Widens to Egypt and Jordan as Saudi Arabia Assembles Maritime Coalition
A drone strike on Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta set two vessels alight, marking the first direct hit on Egyptian soil since the war began in February.
Jul 30, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Saudi Arabia Forms Multinational Maritime Coalition After Houthi Blockade of Its Shipping
Saudi Arabia invited roughly 50 countries to a Saudi-led Red Sea maritime coalition, with 14 including Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, and Nigeria affirming support after a Thursday meeting.
Jul 29, 2026
Escalating
Military
Reported Chinese MANPADS Sale to Iran Surfaces
Reporting disclosed a China-Iran contract for up to 400 QW-12 and FN-16 man-portable air defense systems worth 60 to 70 million dollars, routed through a Hong Kong registered intermediary to obscure Beijing's role.
Jul 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Drone Strike Sets Two Gas Tankers Alight at Egypt's Damietta Port
Explosions set fire to a US-owned gas storage tanker leased to Egypt's state gas company and a liquefied natural gas carrier operated by a Greek firm at the Mediterranean port of Damietta, with maritime trackers attributing the cause to drones.
Jul 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Saudi Arabia Acknowledges First Direct Strikes in the U.S.-Iran War
Saudi Arabia's defence ministry announced airstrikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq, retaliating for attacks on Saudi oil facilities that no group claimed.
Jul 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Drone Strike Hits Two Ships at Egypt's Port of Damietta
Two vessels, one a US-owned gas storage tanker, caught fire at the Port of Damietta in what Egypt assessed as a drone attack.
Jul 29, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Strikes US Base in Jordan as US and Saudi Aircraft Hit Militias in Iraq
Iranian ballistic missiles targeted the main American air hub in Jordan while American and Saudi aircraft struck militia logistics sites across eastern Iraq, killing at least twenty fighters and six Iranian advisers.
Jul 29, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Drone Strikes US-Owned Gas Tanker at Egypt's Damietta Port
A drone hit an American-owned floating gas storage vessel at Damietta on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, igniting a fire that spread to a second gas tanker. No claim of responsibility followed.
Jul 29, 2026
Escalating
Military
Saudi Arabia Joins US Strikes on Iran-Backed Militia Sites in Iraq
Riyadh moved from covert participation to declared belligerency, striking Popular Mobilisation Forces positions alongside American forces and killing at least 20 fighters.
Jul 29, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Contracts China for Up to 400 Shoulder-Fired Air Defence Systems
Iran concluded a contract for 300 to 400 Chinese MANPADS, routed through a Hong Kong intermediary and staged for delivery from western China through Pakistan.
Jul 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Fires Multiple Ballistic Missiles at U.S. Forces During Negotiation Lull
U.S. Central Command said Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles at American forces at 18:45 Eastern Time on Tuesday and that all were intercepted.
Jul 28, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Hosts Zelensky and Netanyahu in Oval Office Doubleheader
Trump hosted Zelensky and Netanyahu separately at the White House on Tuesday, with both arriving to seek commitments and neither securing them.
Jul 28, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Threatens Pickaxe Mountain Strike Absent Iran Deal
Trump said on Tuesday that talks with Iran have gone well while repeating his threat to destroy the fortified underground Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site along with bridges and power plants if Tehran does not agree terms.
Jul 27, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Holds Out for Hormuz Recognition as Fighting Pause Frays
Tehran rejected the American characterisation of a ceasefire and denied that negotiations are under way, saying its only talks are with Oman over management of the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 27, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
United States and Iran Declare Cease-Fire After Two-Week Bombing Campaign
The Trump administration announced a cease-fire following a two-week bombing campaign and Iran responded in kind, though the risk of renewed hostilities remains high.
Jul 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Saudi Air Defences Destroy Iran-Linked Drones Launched From Iraq
Drones launched from Iraqi territory by Iran-aligned armed groups targeted Saudi oil facilities in the Eastern Province and the capital, and were intercepted.
Jul 27, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Strike Saudi East-West Pipeline Corridor to Yanbu
The Houthis said they targeted crude supply and transport sites along the corridor linking eastern Saudi fields to the Red Sea export terminal at Yanbu.
Jul 26, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Cyberattacks Hit US Water Facilities Across Six States
Concurrent cyberattacks against water facilities in at least six American states in the week from July 26 prompted the federal cybersecurity agency to upgrade an advisory and urge operators to disconnect exposed operational technology from the internet.
Jul 26, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Conditions Strike Halt on Continued US Bombing Pause
Tehran set a reciprocal condition on its own de-escalation, halting attacks only for as long as the American pause holds.
Jul 26, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Trump Defers Iran Escalation Amid Munitions Depletion Debate
Washington put off a planned escalation of its campaign against Iran, with the decision shaped by both a diplomatic effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and an internal argument about declining US munitions inventories.
Jul 26, 2026
De-escalating
Military
United States Pauses Iran Strike Campaign as Hormuz Talks Resume
The United States halted its bombing campaign against Iran for a second night, framed officially as space for diplomacy but shadowed by reporting that expanded operations would draw down a diminished air defense stockpile.
Jul 26, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Saudi-Houthi Truce Erodes Under Escalating Cross-Border Strikes
Reciprocal attacks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis have intensified to the point of threatening a truce that has held for four years.
Jul 25, 2026
Mixed
Military
Armed Attacks on Caspian Shipping Expose Middle Corridor Security Gap
A Ukrainian drone strike on a cargo ship carrying Iranian military shipments killed an Iranian sailor in July, following Israel's March strike on the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali.
Jul 25, 2026
Escalating
Military
Ukraine Strikes Iranian Cargo Ship in the Caspian Sea
Kyiv struck a vessel it said was carrying military equipment between Iran and Russia, without specifying the direction of travel.
Jul 24, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Thailand Shelves One-Trillion-Baht Land Bridge Megaproject
Thailand abandoned its plan to build two deep-sea ports linked by rail and motorway across the upper southern provinces as an alternative to the Strait of Malacca, after a feasibility study found the returns did not justify the outlay.
Jul 24, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Taps Frozen Iranian Assets for Shipping Damages Amid 13th Night of Strikes
President Trump declared the United States would use frozen Iranian assets under US control to compensate for damage to ships and cargo, as US forces struck Iranian military command centers, drone storage, communication networks, and coastal surveillance sites for a 13th consecutive night, including targets at Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island.
Jul 23, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Investigates Russian Role in Iranian Drone Strikes on CIA Gulf Facilities
Iranian drones struck CIA facilities in the Gulf, and US intelligence is now examining whether Russia contributed targeting information or drone technology. The question matters more than the damage.
Jul 23, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Iran Rejects US Cease-Fire Proposal Delivered by Iraqi Prime Minister
Iran rejected the only cease-fire offer on the table, carried to Tehran by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi after his White House visit, with Foreign Minister Araghchi dismissing mediation as pointless against what he called America's controlling outlook.
Jul 23, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Border Crossings on Iraq's Frontiers With Iran and Kuwait Struck
A reported U.S. airstrike hit a police rest station on the Iranian side of the Shalamcheh crossing with Iraq in Khuzestan province, killing two people and sending crowds fleeing, hours before U.S.
Jul 23, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
US House Passes Second War Powers Resolution on Iran Conflict
The House voted 214-208 for a second war powers resolution directing Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from the Iran conflict, with four Republicans joining all Democrats present.
Jul 23, 2026
Escalating
Military
Trump Threatens Iran With Punishment for Houthi Tanker Attacks
President Trump said the U.S. would hold Iran responsible for future Houthi attacks after the group fired on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, threatening military punishment against both Tehran and the Houthis.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Saudi Arabia and United States Sign Civilian Nuclear Agreement
Saudi Arabia and the United States signed a civilian nuclear agreement on 22 July after years of patient Saudi negotiation that deliberately excluded Moscow and Beijing as alternatives.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US Announces Saudi Civil Nuclear Deal Without Enrichment Bar
The Trump administration announced a 123 agreement on July 22 allowing exports of US nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia, departing from the enrichment restrictions and Additional Protocol safeguards Washington has required of past partners including the UAE in 2009.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Strike Saudi Tankers, Extending War to Bab el-Mandeb Chokepoint
Houthi missile and drone strikes hit the Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla near Jizan, enforcing the group's declared naval blockade of Saudi Arabia, which had been rerouting millions of barrels daily by pipeline to the Red Sea to bypass Iran's Hormuz blockade.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Strike Saudi Oil Tankers to Enforce Red Sea Blockade
The Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on the Saudi-flagged tankers Layla and Encelia in the Red Sea, the first enforcement of the blockade on Saudi Arabia they declared Monday, and said they turned back around ten ships, with Kpler data confirming at least six vessels reversed course after warnings to avoid Saudi ports.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Other
UAE Launches Fujairah Port Expansion to Bypass Strait of Hormuz
Dubai-based DP World, which handles about 10 percent of global container traffic, announced a deal with the UAE to develop two new shipping terminals at Fujairah on the Indian Ocean coast, expanding its container capacity roughly 13 percent and reducing dependence on Jebel Ali inside the Gulf, where activity has collapsed during the war.
Jul 22, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Trump Approves Civilian Nuclear Agreement With Saudi Arabia
President Trump formally approved a landmark agreement to provide Saudi Arabia with a civilian nuclear program, a long-sought Saudi objective.
Jul 21, 2026
Escalating
Military
US War on Iran Stalls as Costs Mount and Hormuz Stays Shut
Nearly six months into the war, the United States has achieved none of its mutable objectives despite bombing a claimed 13,000 targets and killing Iran's supreme leader at the outset, while Iran retains its grip on the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthis threaten the Red Sea.
Jul 21, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
ASEAN Ministers Demand Cessation of U.S.-Iran War and Hormuz Restoration
The 59th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting closed with a joint statement of serious concern over renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities, demanding utmost restraint, a complete cessation across all Middle East fronts, and restoration of safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz, on which Asia depends for around 60 percent of its crude imports.
Jul 21, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
U.S. Agrees to Saudi Civilian Nuclear Program With Possible Enrichment
The United States agreed to provide Saudi Arabia with a civilian nuclear program that could potentially include uranium enrichment on the kingdom's own territory.
Jul 21, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Pentagon Puts Iran War Cost at $37.5 Billion Amid Collapsing Support
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a contentious Senate hearing the Iran war has cost $37.5 billion and requested an $88 billion supplemental, as polling showed just 28 percent of Americans consider the war worth fighting and 52 percent believe U.S. global leadership has weakened under Trump.
Jul 21, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Completes Eleventh Consecutive Day of Strikes on Iranian Maritime Capabilities
US Central Command said it completed its eleventh straight day of strikes on Iran, hitting military operations centers, maritime capabilities, aircraft hangars, drone storage facilities, and military logistics infrastructure.
Jul 21, 2026
De-escalating
Other
White House Requests $87.6 Billion in Iran War Funding From Congress
The White House asked Congress to approve $87.6 billion, mostly for urgent needs connected with the war in Iran, with Defense Secretary Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Caine set to defend the request before the Senate Appropriations Committee.
Jul 21, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
India Summons Russian Envoy Over Deadly Strike on Cargo Ship
India summoned Russian charge d'affaires Vladimir Ladanov after Ukraine reported that three Russian cruise missiles struck the Guinea-Bissau-flagged, Indian-owned Golden Leo as it left a Ukrainian port on Sunday, killing ten crew including four Indians.
Jul 21, 2026
Stable
Legal
Burnham Scraps Electricity VAT in First Policy Move
On his second day in office, Prime Minister Andy Burnham eliminated value added tax on electricity, funded by scrapping the planned national digital ID program, signaling a cost-of-living-first agenda.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Bab el-Mandeb Closure on Iranian Instruction
The Houthis announced closure of Bab el-Mandeb by radio and email, executing an Iranian instruction issued a week earlier to shut the route if Washington struck Iranian power infrastructure.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Red Sea Blockade of Saudi Shipping
The Houthis announced a blockade against Saudi Arabia on 20 July, with attacks on Saudi shipping already reported, effectively closing both the Bab al-Mandab Strait and the approach to Suez.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes Damage Nine U.S. Military Sites Across the Middle East
In the two weeks since the ceasefire broke down, Iranian missile and drone strikes hit nine U.S. locations across Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq, destroying hangars, drone shelters, radar systems, and living quarters.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Middle Corridor Expansion Advances Without a Security Framework
Corridor states layered new connectivity agreements, a Kazakhstan-Georgia e-Permit deal on July 20, a five-country single transit document signed in Astana in May, and the June inauguration of the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway, onto Georgia's state-led takeover of the Anaklia port after a Chinese consortium's withdrawal.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Maritime Blockade of Saudi Arabia
A Houthi military spokesperson declared a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia, extending the group's interdiction campaign beyond Israel-linked shipping to the Gulf's largest oil exporter as the US-Iran war continues.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Maritime Blockade on Saudi Arabia
The Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia on Monday, days after attacking Abha airport in the first direct strike on Saudi soil since early 2022, following a dispute over an Iranian plane blocked from landing in Sanaa after Khamenei's funeral.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Russian Frigate Conducts Live-Fire Exercise off Plymouth
The Russian frigate Neustrashimy carried out a 30-minute live-fire artillery exercise in international waters 40 nautical miles south of Plymouth, informing the shadowing HMS Tyne in advance and requesting it reposition.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Philippines Defends ASEAN Re-Engagement With Myanmar Junta
Philippine Foreign Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro, ASEAN's special envoy on Myanmar, dismissed expert criticism of the bloc's first foreign-minister-level engagement with Naypyidaw since the 2021 coup, held in Bangkok on July 12.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Naval Blockade of Saudi Arabia
The Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi shipping between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, days after striking Abha airport in retaliation for the bombing of Sanaa airport.
Jul 20, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Strikes U.S. Forces Across Four Host Countries
Iranian forces fired on Kuwait and Bahrain overnight and on Monday, extending a campaign that has targeted U.S. military positions in at least four countries and killed at least three American service members since Friday, including a soldier struck by drone debris in Iraq and a missing soldier believed dead after the Jordan base attack.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Red Sea Blockade on Saudi Arabia After Truce Collapse
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia in response to what the group called a continued Saudi siege of Yemen, days after a four-year Saudi-Houthi truce collapsed over a Saudi strike on Sana airport meant to block an Iranian plane.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Maritime Embargo Against Saudi Arabia
Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree announced an immediate maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for the strike on Sanaa airport.
Jul 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
Hormuz Tanker Strikes Lift Oil Prices as Mediators Circulate Proposals
Two tankers exploded attempting the alternate Hormuz route Iran has warned against, with a vessel burning off Oman's coast, pushing Brent crude to a one-month high and US gasoline back above four dollars a gallon.
Jul 20, 2026
Mixed
Military
Ninth Night of US Strikes Hits Iranian Cities as IRGC Locks Down Hormuz
US Central Command launched a new wave of strikes for the ninth consecutive night, hitting military sites and communications networks in cities including Tabriz, Chabahar, Konarak, Bandar Mahshahr and Bandar Imam Khomeini.
Jul 20, 2026
Stable
Political
Burnham Takes Over as UK Prime Minister Amid Strained US Ties
Andy Burnham replaces Keir Starmer as British prime minister, inheriting a stagnant economy, a pledge not to raise main taxes, and unavoidable war files on Ukraine and the Middle East.
Jul 19, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Rubio Holds Door Open to Iran Diplomacy While Demanding Burden-Sharing
Secretary of State Rubio said Washington remains open to diplomacy with Iran and that Tehran is signaling interest in negotiating directly and through mediators, even as US forces ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes and Iranian attacks stopped two tankers using the alternate route near Oman's coast.
Jul 19, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US-Iran War Escalates to Water Infrastructure and Port Blockade
The US-Iran war has escalated past military targets: both sides have struck water and desalination plants, risking power and water loss for tens of thousands in the Gulf summer heat, while the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by both parties and Washington has reinstated a blockade of Iranian ports.
Jul 19, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Surges Warplanes to Middle East for Expanded Strikes on Iran
The United States ordered additional F-16 fighters from Germany, stealth F-35s from Britain and more aerial refueling aircraft to the Middle East, with some tankers to be stationed at Israeli Air Force bases.
Jul 18, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran War Escalates Beyond Strait of Hormuz
Tit-for-tat strikes produced the first U.S. fatalities in months, a reimposed U.S. naval blockade on Iran, and expanding target sets including civilian infrastructure.
Jul 18, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Missile and Drone Attack Kills Two US Soldiers in Jordan
The Pentagon identified two soldiers, 1Lt Tyler Feehan and Pvt Isabella Gonzales, killed in Jordan while defending against Iranian ballistic missile and drone attacks, deaths first announced by Central Command on Saturday.
Jul 18, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Makes Jordan the Casualty Front of Its Deterrence Campaign
Iran stepped up missile and drone attacks on US forces stationed in Jordan, with a weekend strike killing American servicemembers.
Jul 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Troop Deaths Mount Across Iraq and Jordan as Ceasefire Unravels
Central Command confirmed a servicemember killed in northern Iraq during controlled detonation of a downed Iranian drone, a day after two soldiers died in an Iranian missile barrage in Jordan, with remains found believed to be the missing third.
Jul 18, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Widens Gulf Attacks as US War Deaths Reach 16
After a seventh straight night of US strikes, Iran struck across the Gulf: killing two US soldiers in Jordan with one missing, hitting Camp Arifjan support facilities and a radar at Ali Al Salem in Kuwait, targeting Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, and apparently triggering Saudi Arabia's first missile alerts in three months.
Jul 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Sever Hormozgan Transport Links as Iranian Civilian Strain Deepens
Overnight US strikes damaged a tunnel and three bridges in Hormozgan Province, cutting key links between the Strait of Hormuz coast and the rest of Iran, with additional strikes reported in Ahvaz, Lar, Darab, and on a desalination plant in Jask.
Jul 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Bombing Fails to Break Iran's Hormuz Grip as Infrastructure Strikes Widen
Overnight US strikes damaged bridges and hit a desalination plant in Iran's Jask region, leaving about 10,000 people without water, while Iran struck a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant and Jordan intercepted 10 Iranian ballistic missiles.
Jul 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Strike on Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base Kills Three U.S. Soldiers
An Iranian strike at the Muwaffaq Salti base in Azraq killed three American soldiers, part of a campaign of hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones fired at Jordan since February.
Jul 17, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Missile Strike on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base Kills Two US Servicemembers
An Iranian missile strike on Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base killed two US servicemembers, likely delivered by the Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile, one of Tehran's most effective systems.
Jul 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes on U.S. Bases in Jordan Drive Mounting American Casualties
Iranian missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan and other regional countries have wounded roughly 100 American troops since early July, with a Friday strike killing three soldiers and nearly a dozen wounded severely enough for medevac to Germany.
Jul 17, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Missile Strike Kills Two U.S. Soldiers at Jordan Air Base
An Iranian ballistic missile struck prefabricated housing units at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, killing two U.S. servicemembers where they lived and slept, one of three separate attacks in the same wave.
Jul 17, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Concentrates Missile Campaign on US Bases in Jordan
Iranian forces attacked US positions in Jordan four times in five days, striking King Faisal Air Base, a helicopter base in the east, and Muwaffaq Salti Air Base twice, killing two US soldiers, wounding dozens, and damaging a significant number of Blackhawk helicopters.
Jul 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Missile Barrage Kills Two US Soldiers as War Toll Reaches 16
Iranian ballistic missiles penetrated US and Jordanian air defenses at a base in Jordan, killing two US service members and bringing American military deaths since the war began on February 28 to 16, with more than 400 wounded.
Jul 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Missile Attack on Jordan Air Base Kills Two US Servicemembers
An Iranian attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan killed two US servicemembers, left one missing, and wounded several others, escalating a weeklong exchange in which both sides have struck a widening array of targets.
Jul 17, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Southern Iranian Transport Infrastructure as Hormuz War Expands
US forces struck at least a dozen bridges, the Bandar Abbas railway station, and a Chabahar port control tower across southern Iran, extending the campaign from military targets toward the logistics spine connecting Iran's ports to its interior.
Jul 16, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Pakistan Reaffirms Islamabad MoU Amid Renewed US-Iran Hostilities
As US-Iran fighting resumed and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, Pakistan's Foreign Office publicly reaffirmed the Islamabad MoU and the June 22 Pakistan-Qatar roadmap as the only viable de-escalation framework.
Jul 16, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Papua New Guinea Orders Closure of Taiwan's Representative Office
Papua New Guinea's foreign minister declared that Taiwan's de facto embassy will no longer be recognized within PNG jurisdiction, a decision relayed to China's ambassador in advance and publicly praised by Beijing.
Jul 16, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Strikes Iranian Bridges to Isolate Bandar Abbas
US forces struck multiple bridges in Iran to cut supply routes feeding Bandar Abbas, the port city and naval base near the Strait of Hormuz that anchors Iran's ability to threaten the waterway.
Jul 16, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran Fighting Reaches Tehran as Strait of Hormuz Standoff Deepens
On the sixth consecutive day of renewed fighting, American strikes hit areas around Tehran for the first time in this round and fired on a tanker sailing toward Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal, while Iran struck at Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait and a drone attack hit near Erbil.
Jul 16, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Expands Strike Targets Across Iran on Sixth Day of Hormuz War
US strikes reached across Iran, hitting Semnan Airport near missile-testing and space-launch facilities, the Bandar Abbas naval base, cruise missile sites on Greater Tunb, and locations in Khuzestan, Sistan and Baluchestan, and Markazi provinces, while the resumed port blockade disabled a tenth ship since April.
Jul 16, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Strikes US Bases in Gulf States as US Widens Hormuz Campaign
Iran launched drone and missile attacks on US military facilities in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain while US forces ran a seven-hour wave of strikes on Iranian command centers, air defense sites, and coastal surveillance facilities including Bandar Abbas and Greater Tunb Island.
Jul 15, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Reinstated U.S. Naval Blockade Halts Iranian Crude Exports From Persian Gulf
Washington reinstated a naval blockade in mid-July that has stopped Iranian crude shipments leaving the Persian Gulf. Offshore floating storage that allowed continued deliveries to China is now being drawn down
Jul 15, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
India Bars Its Seafarers From Strait of Hormuz Voyages
India's Directorate General of Shipping ordered shipowners, managers, and recruiters not to deploy Indian seafarers on voyages through the Strait of Hormuz after two Indian sailors were killed in vessel attacks amid renewed regional fighting.
Jul 15, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Hormuz Control Claim Undercut by Falling Transit Traffic
President Trump asserted at the start of the week that the Strait of Hormuz was open and under US control. By Wednesday, ship-tracking data from Kpler showed traffic dropping as transit risks deepened amid the US-Iran confrontation.
Jul 15, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Disables Tanker Bound for Kharg Island in Blockade Enforcement
US aircraft fired Hellfire missiles into the smokestack of the Curaçao-flagged M/T Belma as it approached Iran's Kharg Island export terminal, the first strike on a commercial vessel since the blockade was reimposed.
Jul 15, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Ghalibaf Keeps Negotiation Door Open Amid Iranian Elite Infighting
Brig. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's lead negotiator, issued a nationally televised statement declaring Iran would defend itself on the battlefield and at the negotiating table alike
Jul 15, 2026
Stable
Cyber
Tehran Billboard Depicts Trump in Coffin as Vengeance Propaganda Escalates
Iranian authorities mounted a billboard in central Tehran's Enghelab Square showing Trump's body in an open black coffin, splattered with graffiti reading We Will Kill Trump in Persian and English, in memory of Minab's children, and honoring Khamenei as a martyr.
Jul 15, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Iranian Missile Sites on Disputed Greater Tunb Island
US forces attacked Iranian cruise missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb, part of the island chain Iran uses to project drones, antiship missiles, and fast-attack boats over the Hormuz shipping lanes.
Jul 15, 2026
Mixed
Military
US Strikes Iranian Coastal Defenses as Iran Hits US Targets in Three Gulf States
US Central Command launched a 90-minute strike wave against Iranian coastal defense systems and cruise missile storage and launch sites, including on Greater Tunb Island, following seven hours of strikes on dozens of targets the previous day and the reimposition of a naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Reimposes Blockade and Oil Ban to Break Iran's Hormuz Grip
The United States reimposed its naval blockade on Iran and revoked the regime's right to sell oil, an economic strangulation strategy aimed at forcing Tehran to relinquish its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 14, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
US-Iran Truce Collapses Over Contested Strait of Hormuz Terms
The truce reached last month unraveled as Tehran and Washington enforced incompatible readings of paragraph five, the clause governing the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 14, 2026
Stable
Military
Trump Threatens Strikes on Iranian Power Plants and Bridges
Trump publicly threatened to knock out all of Iran's power plants and bridges within a week unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table, as US-Iran strike exchanges entered a fifth consecutive day.
Jul 14, 2026
Stable
Sanctions
US Abandons Proposed 20 Percent Hormuz Cargo Fee Within a Day
Trump abandoned the proposed 20 percent reimbursement fee on cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz one day after announcing it with the reinstated blockade, saying Gulf states would instead make trade and investment deals into the United States.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
US-Iran Escalation Renews Global Oil, Shipping and Aviation Disruption
US warplanes struck hundreds of Iranian targets over the past week while Iran resumed attacks on Hormuz shipping and US Gulf allies, and Trump reinstated the naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Iran Tracked US Military Phones via SS7 Exploits
Mobile Surveillance Monitor data released Tuesday indicates Iranian cyber actors flooded Middle East telecom networks with SS7 location requests at the outset of the February war, tracking phones of US military personnel and contractors, including in Bahrain.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes on Supertankers Halt Hormuz Shuttle-Run Operations
Iran attacked three crude oil supertankers overnight, grinding to a halt the shuttle-run operations that ferried crude through the Strait of Hormuz and served as one of the last functioning lifelines for the global energy market.
Jul 14, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Enter US-Iran War With Strikes on Saudi Arabia
The Houthis announced their entry into the US-Iran war with threats and reprisal strikes on Saudi Arabia, breaking four years of tenuous peace with Riyadh as CENTCOM restarted its blockade of Iranian shipping after three days of airstrikes.
Jul 14, 2026
Mixed
Military
US Reimposes Iran Blockade and Drops Hormuz Fee Plan as Attacks Spread
The US military reimposed its blockade of Iranian ports and struck coastal defense systems, missile and drone sites, and maritime capabilities after Iranian attacks on commercial ships, deploying at least 19 warships including two carriers in the Arabian Sea.
Jul 14, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Tanker Strike Kills Indian Sailor, Prompting Formal Protest From Delhi
Iran struck two UAE-registered tankers transiting the strait near Oman on the US-overseen route rather than Iranian-approved lanes, killing one Indian sailor and injuring ten of the thirty Indian crew aboard.
Jul 14, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Macron Showcases Coalition of the Willing at Bastille Day Amid Hormuz Paralysis
Macron gathered two dozen leaders at the Bastille Day parade, which featured nearly 500 troops from 35 coalition-of-the-willing countries, the France- and Britain-led force meant to secure Ukraine after any cease-fire, in a choreographed display of European resolve to cut loose from Trump's America.
Jul 13, 2026
Escalating
Military
Rival Transit Fee Regimes Replace Free Passage in the Strait of Hormuz
After the July ceasefire collapsed, Iran attacked ships transiting routes Tehran had not approved, the United States resumed bombardment, and Washington declared it would keep Hormuz open while charging transiting cargo a twenty percent protection fee.
Jul 13, 2026
Escalating
Military
Saudi Strike on Sanaa Airport Triggers Houthi Blockade Declaration
Saudi Arabia struck Sanaa International Airport on July 13 after Ansar Allah welcomed the first Iranian commercial flight to Sanaa in a decade and refused demands it not return.
Jul 13, 2026
Mixed
Military
US Reinstates Hormuz Naval Blockade After Ceasefire Collapse
The United States announced it will reinstate the naval blockade around the Strait of Hormuz after the June ceasefire with Iran collapsed, having already scrapped a proposed 20 percent escort payment scheme.
Jul 13, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Threatens Red Sea Expansion as Houthis Warn of Bab el-Mandeb Closure
Iran warned its campaign against global energy markets could expand from Hormuz to the Red Sea if US attacks continue, as the Houthis announced a ban on Israel-linked ships and politburo member Mohammad al-Farah warned Bab el-Mandeb would be closed if escalation continues.
Jul 13, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Strike Abha Airport in Largest Attack on Saudi Arabia in Four Years
Houthi forces launched missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia's Abha International Airport, their largest attack on the kingdom in four years, framed as retaliation for a Saudi strike earlier that day on Sanaa International Airport intended to prevent an Iranian plane carrying Houthi officials from landing.
Jul 13, 2026
Stable
Sanctions
Hormuz Fee Proposal Rattles Shipping Markets
Trump's proposed 20 percent fee on all cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz stirred alarm among shipping operators: charged on cargo value it would add about 16 dollars per barrel against a 10 dollar baseline freight cost, more than doubling oil transport costs and adding over 30 million dollars per large tanker.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Reimposes Iran Blockade and Claims Hormuz Toll
Trump declared the United States the guardian of the Strait of Hormuz, reinstating the naval blockade of Iranian ports and announcing a 20 percent toll on all cargo transiting the strait.
Jul 13, 2026
Mixed
Military
Airstrike on Sana Airport Shatters Yemen De-escalation
Yemen's internationally recognized government, which depends on Saudi military support, said it bombed Sana's airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing, while the Houthis blamed Saudi Arabia directly and declared the de-escalation phase over.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Reimposes Iran Blockade as Hormuz Ceasefire Collapses
The June 18 U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding collapsed after Iran attacked merchant shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and declared the waterway closed, prompting Trump to reimpose the U.S. blockade of Iranian oil, resume airstrikes on Iranian bases and bridges, and threaten a 20 percent U.S. toll on strait cargo.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Iranian Hard-Liners Call for Revenge Against Trump After Khamenei's Killing
Officials and clerics close to Iran's government escalated threats against Trump to avenge Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's killing, after a rare statement from his son and successor Mojtaba Khamenei pledging revenge for the two wars' martyrs.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Expands Strikes on Iran After Tehran Declares Hormuz Closed
The United States struck additional military targets in Iran after Tehran defied American demands to publicly declare the Strait of Hormuz open and instead declared the strait closed.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
UK Proscribes IRGC After Attributing European Attack Wave to Qods Force
The UK government banned Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Iran-backed proxy group IMCR after attributing seven claimed attacks on Jewish sites in Britain to the group, with the Qods Force assessed as almost certainly directing IMCR operations across Europe.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Strikes US Bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain as Hormuz Truce Collapses
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps launched missile and drone strikes at US military bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, claiming hits on missile, drone, and fuel facilities, as the United States and Iran traded heavy airstrikes for consecutive days.
Jul 13, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Strikes Iranian Air Defenses as IRGC Hits Gulf Bases
U.S. forces struck dozens of Iranian military targets including air-defence systems, coastal radar sites and missile and drone capabilities, killing one person in Khuzestan province, after hitting 140 targets the previous night.
Jul 12, 2026
Escalating
Military
First U.S. Combat Use of Sea Drones Against Iranian Naval Facility
Three American drone boats penetrated an Iranian port and destroyed a submarine and ship maintenance facility on Sunday, marking the first combat employment of sea drones by U.S. forces.
Jul 12, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Launches New Strike Wave Against Iran as Diplomacy Stalls
The U.S. military launched another wave of strikes against Iran to degrade its ability to attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, after hitting more than 300 Iranian military targets over three nights.
Jul 12, 2026
Escalating
Military
Ukrainian Drone Campaign Forces Russian Shipping Suspension in Sea of Azov
Russia suspended shipping in the Sea of Azov after Ukrainian drones hit 90 vessels in under a week, including shadow-fleet tankers, and closed the Don-Azov canal connecting its river network and the Caspian.
Jul 12, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Third Round of Strikes After Iran Closes Hormuz and Hits Container Ship
Iran's IRGC struck a container ship it said was on an unapproved route and declared Hormuz closed until the end of US interference, drawing a third round of US strikes in a week.
Jul 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
Ukraine Extends Drone Blockade Across Sea of Azov and Black Sea
Since early July Ukraine has run over a hundred drone strikes on vessels in the Sea of Azov, including a July 11-12 wave hitting ten fuel tankers and four ferries serving occupied Crimea, then shifted its hunt to the northeastern Black Sea, sinking the patrol ship Izumrud at Novorossiysk.
Jul 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
Hormuz Ship Attack Sustains Oil Premium and Transit Collapse
An Iranian attack on a commercial vessel in Omani waters triggered new US strikes and kept oil markets primed for volatility, with Brent closing near 76 dollars, about 5 percent above prewar levels, and daily transits down from more than 130 ships to 22.
Jul 11, 2026
Escalating
Military
US Strikes Iran After IRGC Attack on M/V GFS Galaxy
The IRGC attacked the Cyprus-flagged container ship GFS Galaxy in the Strait of Hormuz, leaving a crew member missing, and the US answered with its third round of strikes in a week.
Jul 10, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Gulf Commons Proposal Floated for Shared Strait of Hormuz Administration
As the US-Iran war keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation proposed treating the Gulf as a shared regional commons administered by all eight littoral states, funded by a nominal fee on oil tankers.
Jul 10, 2026
Mixed
Military
Emboldened Iranian Leadership Escalates Hormuz Standoff After Khamenei Funeral
Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's funeral, Iran's hard-line successor leadership, buoyed by massive crowds, escalated attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, striking three vessels on a southern route and provoking US strikes on more than 170 sites deeper into Iranian territory.
Jul 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Oman-Malacca Model Advanced as Hormuz Fee Compromise
Oman, working with British lawyers, developed a voluntary navigational-fee scheme for the Strait of Hormuz modeled on the Strait of Malacca cooperative mechanism, offered to Tehran as an alternative to the compulsory, Iran-controlled tolls the IRGC favors.
Jul 10, 2026
De-escalating
Other
IRC Mid-Year Watch List Documents Collapsing Humanitarian Shock Absorbers
The International Rescue Committee released its mid-year emergency watch list update, titled around more shocks and fewer shock absorbers, while the World Bank launched a refreshed fragility strategy at its Fragility Forum.
Jul 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
US Officials Acknowledge Iran Nuclear Deal Increasingly Unlikely
Senior Trump administration officials told reporters on Friday that a nuclear deal with Iran is growing increasingly unlikely through peace talks, a rare public acknowledgment of pessimism about the negotiating track.
Jul 10, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Declares US-Iran Ceasefire Over While Agreeing to Continued Talks
Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran no longer in effect while accepting Tehran's request to continue talks, capping a week in which Iranian forces attacked three Qatari and Saudi tankers, the United States struck Iranian sites, and Iran hit US military facilities in Gulf states.
Jul 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Declares Iran Cease-Fire Over as Regional Mediators Push New Talks
After Iranian strikes on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on July 7 triggered U.S. retaliation, both sides exchanged fire through the week, with Tehran hitting U.S. facilities in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, and Qatar and Washington striking air defense, coastal surveillance, missile and drone storage, naval, and logistics assets along Iran's coastline.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Iranian Hard-Liners Press to Sustain War Amid Post-Khamenei Succession Flux
Red vengeance flags at Ali Khamenei's weeklong funeral signaled a hard-line push to keep fighting the United States as Iran's decapitated leadership sorts itself out.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles at Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti Air Base
Iran's military said it fired ballistic missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, a Jordanian facility hosting a U.S. Air Force hub and nearly 4,000 American troops. Jordan said it intercepted eight missiles with no casualties or damage.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Russian Budget Deficit Deepens as Iran War Oil Windfall Fades
Russia's Finance Ministry reported a first-half deficit of $75 billion, more than $30 billion worse than the same period of 2025, with 55 percent of annual budgeted spending already consumed.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Khamenei Burial Proceeds Amid US Strikes and Hormuz Escalation
Khamenei's funeral procession in Mashhad started roughly eight hours late as Iranian officials said US forces struck railway bridges on the Tehran to Mashhad route.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Khamenei Buried in Mashhad as New Supreme Leader Stays Out of Sight
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed with several family members in an Israeli strike on his Tehran residence on 28 February, was buried at the Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad before massive crowds.
Jul 9, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Disrupt Khamenei Funeral as Ceasefire Collapses
US forces reportedly struck two railway bridges on the Tehran to Mashhad line overnight, delaying the final stage of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's funeral by eight hours as Washington and Tehran traded strikes for a second consecutive night.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Damage Iranian Rail and Port Nodes on Eurasian Transit Corridors
US missile strikes hit the Agh Tekeh Khan railway bridge near Aqqala, one of only two rail links from Iran into Turkmenistan, plus bridges and a tunnel near Bandar Abbas and a maritime traffic control tower at Chabahar.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
US-Iran Switzerland Memorandum Collapses Over Hormuz Interpretation
The memorandum of understanding Tehran and Washington struck in Switzerland fell apart, with Trump declaring on July 8 that he no longer wants to deal with Iran and the US resuming attacks.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Hits 170 Targets in Iran as Iranian Retaliation Is Largely Intercepted
US Central Command struck about 170 targets across Iran in two days, including port-city military infrastructure and rail links, to degrade Iran's capacity to attack Hormuz shipping.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Trump Switched to Legacy Air Force One Over Iran Threat
At the Secret Service's urging, President Trump departed Ankara aboard the older Air Force One rather than the Qatari-donated 747-8 after U.S.-Iran hostilities resumed mid-summit.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran Hostilities Resume Amid Iranian Leadership Fracture
The United States carried out intense airstrikes on dozens of targets along Iran's southern shores after IRGC attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and struck again by nightfall.
Jul 8, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
2026 NATO Ankara Summit Outcomes
The Ankara NATO summit closed with allies reaffirming the Article 5 collective-defense pledge, calling on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and announcing fifty billion dollars in new defense procurement plus eighty billion dollars for Ukraine.
Jul 8, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Collapses Over Strait of Hormuz Control
The U.S.-Iran cease-fire and memorandum of understanding unraveled after Iran attacked ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz outside its preferred routes, prompting U.S. airstrikes on Iranian radar and air-defense sites, and Washington rescinded the oil-sanctions waivers it had granted Tehran.
Jul 8, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran's Hormuz Mine Blockade Persists as Cease-Fire Buckles
Iran mined the Strait of Hormuz, effectively blocking about 20 percent of the world's oil and nearly half of China's supply for months and stranding some 2,000 ships.
Jul 8, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran Hormuz Ceasefire Falters as Iran Retains Chokepoint Control
As fresh U.S.-Iran strikes and reimposed U.S. oil sanctions push the sixty-day Hormuz MOU toward collapse, Iran has consolidated de facto control over a waterway carrying roughly 20% of global oil and LNG.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Declares Preliminary US-Iran Cease-Fire Effectively Over
Asked whether the cease-fire and memorandum of understanding with Iran were dead, Trump said he thinks it is over and that he no longer wants to deal with Tehran, while allowing negotiators to keep talking.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran-US Ceasefire Collapses as Iran Strikes US Sites in Bahrain and Kuwait
Three weeks after a preliminary ceasefire signed in Switzerland, the U.S. struck targets in southern Iran and reimposed oil sanctions, citing Iranian attacks on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's Revolutionary Guards answered by targeting 85 U.S. military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait and downing an MQ-9 drone, and Trump pronounced the ceasefire over.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Declares US-Iran Ceasefire Over After Iranian Hormuz Ship Attacks
At the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump attacked Iran's leadership and said he believed the ceasefire deal was over, following a fresh round of Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 8, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Declares US-Iran Interim Ceasefire Accord Dead, Revokes Oil License
Speaking ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, Trump pronounced the US-Iran memorandum of understanding over and said he no longer wanted to engage Tehran.
Jul 7, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Hard-Line Faction Collapses U.S. Peace Deal With Unauthorised Strait of Hormuz Ship Attacks
Iranian forces fired on three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, setting a Qatari LNG tanker ablaze, in an operation the president, the Revolutionary Guards commander in chief and the Supreme National Security Council all say they neither authorised nor knew about.
Jul 7, 2026
Escalating
Military
Ukraine Escalates Drone Strikes on Russian Shadow-Fleet Tankers in Sea of Azov
Ukrainian drone forces struck 21 vessels in 72 hours, including 19 sanctioned shadow-fleet tankers, a cargo ship and a ferry at Kerch, targeting the fuel lifeline to occupied Crimea.
Jul 7, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes IRGC Naval Targets After Hormuz Tanker Attacks
US Central Command launched strikes on IRGC small boats and coastal targets at Qeshm island, Bandar Abbas and Sirik after three oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz.
Jul 7, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Iranian Coastal Targets and Revokes Oil License After Hormuz Tanker Attacks
After projectiles hit three commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi-flagged supertanker, US Central Command launched strikes on Iranian air defenses, coastal surveillance, anti-ship missiles, and drone launch sites around Sirik, Qeshm Island, and Bandar Abbas.
Jul 7, 2026
Escalating
Military
Tanker Attacks Push Strait of Hormuz Threat Level to Severe
The Qatari LNG tanker Al Rekayyat was struck and risked explosion, the Saudi supertanker Wedyan was damaged off Oman, and a third tanker took minor drone damage within 24 hours in and near the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.
Jul 7, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
United States Revokes License for Iranian Open-Market Oil Sales
The Trump administration revoked the license that allowed Iran to sell oil on the open market, the central economic benefit Tehran derived from the interim peace deal that ended the U.S.-Iran war.
Jul 7, 2026
De-escalating
Political
State Funeral Procession for Khamenei in Qom
Iran's government staged an elaborate funeral procession for slain Supreme Leader Khamenei in Qom, the center of Shiite religious education, following days of mass mourning in Tehran and ahead of burial in Mashhad.
Jul 7, 2026
Escalating
Military
Tanker Struck in Strait of Hormuz Amid Stalled Iran Peace Talks
A Qatari LNG tanker was struck by a projectile off Oman's coast in the Strait of Hormuz, the first incident there since Khamenei's mourning began, as Iran refused to resume talks unless Trump ends threats to restart the war.
Jul 7, 2026
Escalating
Military
IRGC Fires Missiles at Two Commercial Ships Near Strait of Hormuz
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired missiles at two commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz early Tuesday, during the funeral period for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Jul 6, 2026
De-escalating
Other
China Exits Anaklia Deep Sea Port Project
On July 6 Georgia's government announced it will develop and operate the strategic Anaklia Deep Sea Port itself under a state-owned 'landlord' model, formalizing the quiet exit of the Chinese CCCC consortium that had taken a 49 percent stake in 2024.
Jul 6, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Explosions Near Macron's Hotel During Damascus Visit
Two explosions, one from an explosive device planted opposite the Four Seasons hotel where Macron was staying, went off during the French president's first official visit to Syria since the fall of the Assad regime.
Jul 6, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Tanker Struck by Projectile in Strait of Hormuz
A tanker was hit by a projectile and caught fire while transiting the Strait of Hormuz off Limah, Oman, with no reported casualties.
Jul 6, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Missiles Strike Two Commercial Ships in Strait of Hormuz
Iranian missiles hit two commercial ships near the eastern mouth of the Strait of Hormuz with no casualties, the latest test of a fragile cease-fire between the United States and Iran.
Jul 6, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Indonesia-Singapore Leaders' Retreat Reaffirms Open Malacca Strait
At the second Singapore-Indonesia Leaders' Retreat in Jakarta, Prabowo and Wong reaffirmed a shared commitment to keep the Strait of Malacca open and accessible under UNCLOS, effectively closing the door on an April proposal by Indonesia's foreign minister to levy tolls on transiting ships.
Jul 6, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Funeral Procession for Slain Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei in Tehran
The mass Tehran funeral for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed in the February 28 US-Israeli airstrike, doubles as a demonstration of the Islamic Republic's mobilization capacity and a marker of contested succession.
Jul 6, 2026
Escalating
Military
Russia Strikes Kyiv With Ballistic Missiles on Eve of NATO Summit
Russia mounted its second major missile attack on Kyiv within days, killing at least seven people and wounding more than two dozen, hours before NATO leaders gather in Ankara.
Jul 4, 2026
Escalating
Political
Mass Khamenei Funeral Opens as Trump Pauses U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
Tens of thousands of mourners thronged Tehran's Imam Khomeini Grand Mosalla as Iran opened weeklong funeral rites for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed with senior family members in the war's opening U.S.-Israeli strikes, while President Trump paused peace talks for the week.
Jul 3, 2026
Escalating
Military
North Korea Fields Nuclear-Capable Destroyers in Naval Buildup
Nuclear-capable cruise missiles rose from North Korea's soon-to-be-commissioned destroyer Kang Kon on July 3 as Kim Jong Un watched, less than two weeks after the navy commissioned the Choe Hyon, its largest domestically produced surface warship with 88 vertical launch cells.
Jul 3, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Khamenei Funeral Begins as Successor Mojtaba Remains Absent
Iran opened seven days of funeral ceremonies for Ali Khamenei, who ruled for more than 35 years before being killed in U.S.-Israeli air strikes in February, with events planned across Iran and Iraq and 12-20 million attendees expected.
Jul 3, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Iranian Elite Splits Over U.S. Deal as New Supreme Leader Rules in Absentia
Khamenei's funeral assembled Iran's president, parliamentary speaker, judiciary head, and top Revolutionary Guards generals in a display of unity that conceals open elite warfare over negotiations with Washington.
Jul 3, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Foreign Allies Converge on Iran for Khamenei Funeral
Iran began a week of ceremonies to bury Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, killed Feb. 28 in the first wave of U.S.-Israeli strikes, drawing dignitaries from China, Russia, Pakistan, Iraq, and the Taliban in a display of Iran's enduring regional pull despite its decapitation.
Jul 2, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Renews NATO Attacks Days Before Ankara Summit
Days before the Ankara summit, President Trump again attacked NATO on Truth Social for U.S. over-subsidization, unsettling European allies and Canada who fear the summit will be spent managing him rather than addressing Russia's war.
Jul 2, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Holds Firm on Hormuz Tolls Despite U.S. Incentives
The United States, working with Oman, is trying to break Iran's insistence on charging tolls for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, offering access to frozen Iranian funds as an inducement.
Jul 2, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
India-Japan Strategic Partnership Expansion
India and Japan signed agreements deepening their strategic partnership across energy self-reliance, Indo-Pacific maritime security, and artificial intelligence, explicitly hedging against US unpredictability and Chinese assertiveness.
Jul 1, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
US and Iran Resume Indirect Talks in Qatar Over Hormuz
Following a serious flare-up that tested last month's preliminary agreement, the U.S. and Iran resumed indirect talks in Qatar via Pakistani and Qatari mediators, restoring calm as oil eased and Hormuz traffic recovered to about 80 percent of prewar volume.
Jun 30, 2026
De-escalating
Cyber
US Imagery Blackout Request During Iran Strikes Fails to Restrict Access
When strikes on Iran began in 2026 the US government asked American commercial satellite imagery providers to stop selling photos of the region, and many curbed sales, but European and Chinese vendors continued.
Jun 30, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Türkiye and EU Deepen Energy Cooperation Amid Diversification Push
Germany's energy minister visited Türkiye on June 18 and three EU commissioners met Erdogan on June 30 to expand trade, energy, and security cooperation, as Middle East instability, the Ukraine war, and Iran's Hormuz blockade intensify Europe's diversification from Russian gas.
Jun 30, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Refuses US Envoy Talks and Asserts Hormuz Control
Iran refused to meet U.S. envoys Kushner and Witkoff in Doha, routing contact through mediators and demanding ceasefire terms be resolved before nuclear negotiations, exposing deep gaps in the two-week-old interim framework.
Jun 30, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
UK Publishes Defence Investment Plan Raising Spending to £80bn by 2029
The UK government published its Defence Investment Plan, adding £15bn to reach £270bn over four years and lifting annual defence spending from £54bn to £80bn by 2029, a 27% real-terms rise but still only 2.7% of GDP against NATO's 3% mandate.
Jun 30, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Talks Over Strait of Hormuz Control
Following four days of reignited strikes that nearly broke a fragile cease-fire, U.S. and Iranian officials prepared indirect talks in Qatar centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz rather than Iran's nuclear program.
Jun 29, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
US and Iran Return to Doha Talks to Preserve Fragile Ceasefire
The United States dispatched envoys Witkoff and Kushner to Doha for high-level Iran talks aimed at stabilizing a June 17 memorandum of understanding that ended four months of conflict and reopened the Strait of Hormuz.
Jun 29, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Iran Claims Exclusive Right to Manage Hormuz Traffic
Iran's foreign minister, speaking in Baghdad, asserted that Iran holds the exclusive right to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz under the preliminary peace deal with Washington, warning that challenges would bring more violence.
Jun 28, 2026
Stable
Other
Saudi Oil-Company Helicopter Crash at Ras Tanura Amid Hormuz Normalization
A Saudi state oil-company helicopter crashed near the Ras Tanura refinery and export port, killing 14, with no indication of links to U.S.-Iran hostilities.
Jun 28, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Strikes U.S. Gulf Bases as U.S.-Iran Interim Deal Frays
Iran fired missiles and drones at U.S. military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain after Trump threatened to wipe out Iran's leadership and U.S. forces struck Iranian military infrastructure over attacks on Hormuz shipping.
Jun 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Strikes Iranian Military Sites Over Hormuz Shipping Attacks
U.S. forces struck Iranian military surveillance, communications, air-defense, drone-storage and minelaying facilities after Iranian drones hit commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.
Jun 27, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Breakdown Over Strait of Hormuz Route Dispute
Iran struck a container ship in the Strait of Hormuz and warned commercial vessels that only Iran-designated routes were permissible, asserting sovereign route-designation authority over the waterway.
Jun 27, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Drone Strike on Bahrain Amid Hormuz Ceasefire Breakdown
Iran launched a drone assault on Bahrain in apparent retaliation for US overnight airstrikes on Iranian missile, drone, and radar infrastructure. A tanker was also attacked in the Strait of Hormuz in a separately claimed strike.
Jun 27, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S. Retaliatory Strikes on Iranian Missile and Radar Sites
U.S. Central Command struck Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar facilities in retaliation for Iran's drone attack on the Ever Lovely container ship off Oman's coast.
Jun 27, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Accuses Iran of Ceasefire Violation After Hormuz Drone Attack
US President Trump posted on Truth Social accusing Iran of shooting at least four drones at ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with one hitting the Ever Lovely cargo ship near the Omani side of the waterway.
Jun 27, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
Iran Positions to Monetize Strait of Hormuz Through Service Fees
Iran is developing plans to charge billions in fees for security, safety, and environmental services in the Strait of Hormuz as it repositions itself as the de facto manager of the strategic chokepoint following the war.
Jun 26, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
China Extends Energy Security Strategy in 15th Five-Year Plan After Hormuz Shock
Beijing unveiled the energy component of its 15th Five-Year Plan on 26 June, days after the ceasefire, keeping the same three levers that carried it through the Hormuz closure rather than reorienting.
Jun 26, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Fires on Evergreen Vessel in Strait of Hormuz
Iranian forces attacked a Taiwanese-operated Evergreen Marine cargo ship (the Ever Lovely) in the Strait of Hormuz near the Omani side of the waterway, causing limited damage.
Jun 26, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
Israel-Lebanon Trilateral Framework Agreement Signed in Washington
Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors signed a US-brokered trilateral framework agreement at the State Department, establishing a performance-based path toward permanent ceasefire and Lebanese sovereignty restoration.
Jun 26, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iranian Drone Strike on Cargo Ship in Strait of Hormuz
A cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an Iranian drone, damaging the vessel's upper deck, while the US military shot down three additional drones aimed at the ship.
Jun 26, 2026
Escalating
Military
IRGC Rejects IMO Shipping Evacuation Routes in Strait of Hormuz
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps rejected coordinates for two temporary shipping evacuation lanes through the Strait of Hormuz announced by the IMO and Oman, blocking the first phase of a mass evacuation of hundreds of trapped vessels.
Jun 26, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran-Lebanon Diplomatic Framework Tensions Over Strait and Sovereignty
The Trump administration has engaged in overlapping negotiations across the Lebanon and Strait of Hormuz fronts, with Vice President JD Vance overseeing Lebanon talks and Secretary of State Marco Rubio declaring Israel and Lebanon 'very close' to a commitment of intent.
Jun 26, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iranian Missile and Drone Strikes Damage U.S. Navy Base in Bahrain
Iranian missiles and drones repeatedly targeted the U.S. Fifth Fleet's headquarters in Bahrain between late February and June, with some penetrating defenses and causing extensive damage.
Jun 25, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran Strikes Container Ship and Asserts Control Over Strait of Hormuz
Iran fired on the container ship Ever Lovely as it transited near the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz, then declared that the only sanctioned route ran through Iranian waters, asserting itself as the central authority over passage.
Jun 25, 2026
Escalating
Military
IRGC Attack on Singapore-Flagged Ship in Strait of Hormuz
Iran's IRGC struck a Singapore-flagged cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, days after Tehran and Washington signed a deal to halt fighting and reopen the chokepoint.
Jun 25, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Rubio Tours Gulf to Sell Preliminary U.S.-Iran Accord to Skeptical Allies
Secretary of State Rubio visited Bahrain on the final leg of a Gulf tour to reassure Sunni allies about a preliminary U.S.-Iran framework that they fear strengthens Tehran and reshapes regional security and oil flows.
Jun 24, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Rutte Meets Trump Amid US-NATO Tensions Over Iran War and Burden-Sharing
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte met Trump ahead of the leaders' summit as Washington threatened to cut fighter-jet contributions and review its European troop presence, frustrated by allies' refusal to support its Iran war.
Jun 24, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Operation Epic Fury Cease-Fire Leaves Iran Weakened
The cumulative US-Israel campaign against Iran, culminating in Operation Epic Fury launched February 28 and ending in a cease-fire, decimated Iran's air defenses, missile stocks, and nuclear-industrial base while collapsing its proxy network.
Jun 24, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Italy Rebukes NATO Chief Over Claims of U.S. Combat Flights From Italian Bases
Italy formally pushed back against NATO Secretary General Rutte's claim that hundreds of U.S. aircraft flew combat-support sorties from Italian bases during the war on Iran, with Rome insisting it sanctioned only non-kinetic logistical flights.
Jun 24, 2026
Unclear
Diplomatic
Trump Says Iran Disavows Strait of Hormuz Tolls Under Framework Deal
President Trump publicly stated that Iran told the United States no tolls, insurance costs, or other charges are being sought on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, disputing contrary reporting.
Jun 24, 2026
Unclear
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Dispute Over IAEA Inspector Access to Nuclear Sites
The U.S. and Iran publicly contradicted each other over whether Iran agreed to readmit IAEA inspectors, even as the IAEA chief affirmed a presidential memorandum mandates supervised handling of nuclear material.
Jun 23, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Oman-Iran Agreement to Form Joint Working Group on Strait of Hormuz Navigation
Oman and Iran agreed to establish a joint foreign-ministry working group on the future management of navigation and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, implementing a provision of the recent U.S.-Iran memorandum.
Jun 23, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S. and Iran Tour Middle East to Shore Up Cease-Fire
Washington and Tehran fanned out across the Gulf to defend a tenuous 60-day cease-fire, but contradictory accounts of nuclear inspections and fund controls exposed the agreement's fragility and Gulf allies' doubts that it constrains Iranian power.
Jun 23, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
IMO Launches Evacuation of Ships Stranded in Persian Gulf After Iran War
The International Maritime Organization, coordinating with the US, Oman, and Iran, begins evacuating roughly 600 ships and 11,000 mariners stranded in the Persian Gulf since the US-Israeli war against Iran.
Jun 22, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Tasu'a Commemorations Spark Iranian Influence Controversy in Georgia
Tasu'a mourning processions in Marneuli and Tbilisi on June 22-24, featuring imagery of Iran's Supreme Leader, ignited a political controversy in Georgia.
Jun 22, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
US Waiver Restores Iranian Oil Sales and Dollar Payments
A US administration waiver linked to the Strait of Hormuz deal allows Iran to sell oil and receive dollar payments, channeling a rapid cash injection to the Tehran regime.
Jun 22, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Retrospective on UK Strategic Exposure Under Starmer
The analysis traces how Starmer managed an unreliable US under Trump, declined to reverse Brexit, and under-funded defense even as the Iran war exposed UK military weakness.
Jun 22, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
US-Iran Talks Open Under Qatari-Pakistani Mediation Toward 60-Day Roadmap
High-level US and Iranian officials opened MOU-mandated negotiations in Switzerland, producing a roadmap toward a final deal in 60 days, a Hormuz de-confliction channel, and a Lebanon de-confliction cell.
Jun 21, 2026
Stable
Other
Iran World Cup Team Faces U.S. Entry Restrictions Amid Conflict Backdrop
Iran's national team competed in Los Angeles under severe entry restrictions imposed after the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, with officials including a former IRGC commander barred and the squad confined to brief visits from a Mexican base.
Jun 21, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Explosion at Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG Complex
A blast and fire during the startup of operations at the Barzan facility within Qatar's Ras Laffan industrial complex injured dozens and left 18 missing.
Jun 21, 2026
Escalating
Military
Israel Asserts Free Action and Holds Security Zone in Southern Lebanon
Israel's defense minister declared troops free to act without restriction against threats in Lebanon and committed to holding all positions in a roughly 10-km security zone along the Yellow Line.
Jun 21, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Announces Re-Closure of Strait of Hormuz Over Israeli Strikes on Lebanon
Iran's military command said it would re-close the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon, reversing a brief reopening under the preliminary US-Iran agreement and testing the fragile ceasefire.
Jun 20, 2026
Escalating
Military
PLA Navy Integrates Unmanned Vessels Into Mine Countermeasures Exercise
The PLAN's 10th Minesweeping Squadron exercised manned minesweepers alongside unmanned surface and underwater vehicles under complex electromagnetic conditions off Guangdong.
Jun 20, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran and U.S. Issue Conflicting Claims Over Strait of Hormuz Status
Iran's military declared the Strait of Hormuz closed and its IRGC naval wing warned approaching ships of security risk, while U.S. Central Command insisted traffic continued and Iran did not control the strait.
Jun 20, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Chaotic Rollout of U.S.-Iran War-Ending Deal
Trump's Iran deal stumbled through a week of contradictory messaging, an opaque multi-stage signing, and the postponement of follow-on talks after Iran reportedly withdrew over Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Jun 19, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
Indonesia Scales Back Flagship Free Nutritious Meals Program
Indonesia announced suspensions and targeting cuts to its multibillion-dollar Free Nutritious Meals program, its administering agency citing budget efficiency amid a fiscal squeeze.
Jun 19, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
Israel-Hezbollah Cease-Fire in Lebanon Stabilizes U.S.-Iran Truce
After Israeli strikes in Lebanon prompted Iran to temporarily exit talks, Israel agreed to a Qatar- and U.S.-brokered cease-fire with Hezbollah, salvaging the fragile U.S.-Iran framework deal whose first point demands an end to operations on all fronts including Lebanon.
Jun 18, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Iran MOU Delivers Early Gains to Tehran
Two weeks after signing a 14-point memorandum of understanding to end active fighting, Iran has secured summer sanctions relief, written commitments to release billions in frozen assets, and a U.S. pledge against new sanctions, while committing to little concrete.
Jun 18, 2026
Unclear
Diplomatic
Vance Delays Switzerland Trip for US-Iran Technical Talks
The White House confirmed that Vice President JD Vance's planned trip to Switzerland to lead technical negotiations with Iran was postponed, leaving the timing of the next phase of talks uncertain.
Jun 18, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
US-Iran War-Ending Accord Implementation Stalls as Vance Cancels Switzerland Trip
Vice President Vance pulled out of talks in Switzerland to implement a 14-point accord ending the US-Iran war, as Iran demanded evidence of US follow-through before proceeding and disputed the need for a signing ceremony.
Jun 18, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Vance to Lead 60-Day US-Iran Negotiations
Following the Trump-signed framework, Vice President Vance is set to lead two months of negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program, publicly framing the deal as advantageous for the US regardless of the result.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
General License X Waiver Fails to Automatically Restore Iranian Oil Exports
The June 17 U.S.-Iran MOU introduced General License X, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil and ancillary services, but the analysis argues exports will not automatically recover: June exports are projected near 720,000 barrels per day against a pre-war 1.8 million, hampered by infrastructure damage, Hormuz disruption, banking reluctance, and snapback risk.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire and Hormuz Sanctions Waiver
The United States and Iran reached an extended ceasefire under which Washington lifted its naval blockade and waived sanctions on Iranian oil exports in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Brokers Islamabad MoU Ending Iran-US War
Pakistan mediated the Islamabad MoU, a 60-day framework to end the Iran-U.S. war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, brokered through shuttle diplomacy by Prime Minister Sharif and army chief Munir while keeping Gulf partners aligned.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Military
Israel's Multi-Front Oct. 7 War Effectively Ends with U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire
Israel's 984-day multi-front war that began with the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack effectively concluded with the June 17 U.S.-Iran cease-fire, though Israel still occupies parts of Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.
Jun 17, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
China's Middle East Strategic Reorientation After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire
Following the June 17 U.S.-Iran ceasefire brokered partly with Chinese involvement, China's regional strategy has consolidated around a single defensive objective: keeping Saudi Arabia and the UAE from moving fully into the U.S. security and diplomatic architecture.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
World Leaders React Warily to Preliminary US-Iran Deal
World leaders cautiously welcomed Trump's preliminary US-Iran agreement, hoping it would restore normalcy to global energy markets while warning that key details remain unresolved.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Sign MoU Ending War; Pakistan Credited as Mediator
The United States and Iran electronically signed a Memorandum of Understanding ending more than three months of war, co-signed by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif as mediator, opening a 60-day window to negotiate a permanent deal over Iran's nuclear program and Hormuz traffic.
Jun 17, 2026
Stable
Other
Major Central Banks Cluster Above Inflation Targets Amid Iran War Shock
Nine of fourteen major central banks are now missing their inflation targets at once, the largest such cluster outside the COVID and Ukraine-invasion shocks, with U.S.
Jun 17, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Ends Iran War
A signed Memorandum of Understanding ended the Iran war on terms that front-load an economic windfall to Tehran while deferring any nuclear-program restrictions to follow-on negotiations.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
Iran War Aftermath Shifts the Global Power Balance
The memorandum reads as a US surrender: for signing, 60 days of talks, and reopening Hormuz, Iran wins frozen-asset release, immediate oil waivers, sanctions-relief commitments, and a $300 billion reconstruction promise.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US-Iran Framework Agreement Made Public
The public framework ends military operations including in Lebanon, pledges noninterference in Iran's internal affairs, lifts the US naval blockade within 30 days, and routes oil waivers, frozen-asset release, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund to Tehran before final-deal talks begin.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Signs Memorandum of Understanding Ending US-Iran Conflict
President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding to end the US-Iran conflict, but the deal does not limit Iran's missiles, drones, or its support for regional militias.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Preliminary US-Iran Deal Omits Missile and Drone Provisions
The preliminary US-Iran peace deal struck this week left out any limits on Iranian missiles and drones, the weapons that struck Gulf airports, energy sites, and bases during the war.
Jun 17, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Saudi Foreign Minister Assesses Iran-US MOU at ECFR Council Meeting
In his first public appearance since the Iran-US MOU, Saudi foreign minister Prince Faisal welcomed the deal as a diplomatic opening while warning of a deep trust deficit between Iran and its Gulf neighbours that makes economic rapprochement a long-term challenge.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Trump-Pezeshkian Initial Peace Deal Signals Hormuz Reopening
After nearly four months of war that brought the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil normally flows, to a near standstill, an initial peace deal was signed by U.S.
Jun 17, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
Trump and Modi Hold Bilateral Meeting at G7 Summit
At the G7 summit in France, Trump pledged to visit India and offered conditional defense backing, signaling a thaw after tensions over tariffs, a forced-labor import tax, and the US killing of three Indian sailors in a strike enforcing its Iran blockade.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Critique Warns US-Iran Deal Empowers Iran's Regime and Proxies
The CFR critique argues the US-Iran deal's removal of all sanctions and release of frozen funds will free resources for Iran's proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi Shia militias, while the agreement stays silent on Iran's dangerous missile program.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Full Text of Pakistan-Brokered US-Iran Islamabad MOU Released
The full 14-point US-Iran 'Islamabad' MOU, brokered with Pakistan's help, was signed electronically by US Vice President Vance and Iranian parliament speaker Ghalibaf and then by President Trump and Iranian President Pezeshkian.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
US Waives Oil Sanctions on Iran in Preliminary Deal
Under the preliminary US-Iran deal, the US Treasury will issue waivers for the export of Iranian crude, petroleum products, and associated banking and shipping services, with a final deal to terminate all sanctions over 60 days.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US Official Confirms Text of US-Iran War-Ending Agreement
A senior US official publicly read the text of the US-Iran agreement at the G7, confirming a permanent end to military operations including in Lebanon, US removal of its naval blockade, Iran's reopening of the Strait of Hormuz with best-efforts free passage for 60 days, a regional $300 billion reconstruction plan, oil-export waivers, and conditional release of frozen Iranian assets.
Jun 17, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
NATO Allies Pledge to Help Restore Strait of Hormuz Shipping After U.S.-Iran Deal
NATO's secretary-general signaled that European allies are ready to support reopening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz following a U.S.-Iran peace deal.
Jun 17, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Iran Survives War, Installs Mojtaba Khamenei After Father's Death
Iran emerged from war with neither victory nor defeat, retaining control of the country after losing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to an Israeli strike and rapidly installing his son Mojtaba Khamenei under Revolutionary Guard sponsorship.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
G7 Backs Follow-On Talks on Iran's Missiles After US-Iran War Deal
G7 leaders meeting under Macron's chairship endorsed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding that ends the war and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, while pressing for a broader follow-on agreement covering Iran's ballistic missiles and proxy support and a France-UK task force to clear and escort shipping through Hormuz.
Jun 17, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Initial US-Iran Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
A preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the U.S. blockade is set to be signed Friday, ending the four-month war that closed Gulf energy exports and spiked global inflation.
Jun 16, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
G7 Sets Rare-Earth Dependency Target as U.S.-Iran Deal Opens Mining Reintegration
At the June G7 summit, leaders endorsed a first measurable target to reduce dependence on any single non-G7 rare-earth and magnet supplier below 60 percent by 2030, aimed squarely at China, which still controls 85-91 percent of refining.
Jun 16, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Kazakhstan-Iran Transport Corridor Cooperation Talks in Astana
Kazakhstan and Iran met in Astana to expand transport cooperation, with Iran allocating a logistics-terminal plot at Shahid Rajaee Port in Bandar Abbas and Kazakhstan offering port space at Aktau and Kuryk, reaffirming a 20-million-tonne INSTC target.
Jun 16, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Draft Sets Sweeping Sanctions Relief
A draft US-Iran memorandum of understanding circulated at the G-7 declares an immediate, permanent end to the war on all fronts including Lebanon, with mutual sovereignty guarantees and a 60-day window to a final agreement.
Jun 16, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
Iran and United States Move Toward Memorandum of Understanding After War
Iran's leadership is presenting an emerging memorandum of understanding with the United States as a victory of resistance, with negotiations set to begin in Switzerland and sanctions relief and Lebanon included in the framework.
Jun 16, 2026
Mixed
Military
UK Pledges Naval Role in Reopening Strait of Hormuz
Starmer commits the UK, alongside France, to assembling a multilateral mission to protect vessels and clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, closed by Iran since the war's February onset.
Jun 16, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Framework Agreement Ends War, 60-Day Negotiation Begins
The United States and Iran signed a framework agreement after three and a half months of war, with fighting in Lebanon easing and oil prices falling.
Jun 15, 2026
Mixed
Sanctions
Iranian Strikes Reconfigure Global LNG Market Against European Energy Security
The US-Israeli attack on Iran and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz reconfigured the global LNG market, with Iranian missiles destroying roughly a sixth of Qatar's export capacity and delaying its planned expansion.
Jun 15, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US-Iran Deal Reopens Strait of Hormuz Amid Contested Control
A US-Iran memorandum of understanding, digitally signed June 15 ahead of a June 19 ceremony, authorizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US naval blockade Iran's March closure had prompted.
Jun 15, 2026
Mixed
Military
Iran War Framework Deal Leaves No Strategic Victor
A framework deal ended the war with Iran without delivering the U.S. and Israeli objectives that justified it, as Iran survived more hard-line and armed with the Strait of Hormuz as a coercive chip.
Jun 14, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
June Memorandum Concedes Iran De Facto Role Over Hormuz Transit
The memorandum of understanding Trump signed with Iran on June 14 traded an end to the US port blockade and a 60-day oil-sales window for reopening Hormuz, but its language ceded Iran a role in the strait's future administration and promised only best efforts on safe passage.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Other
Iran War Triggers Asian Energy-Security Rethink
The Hormuz shutdown during the Iran war exposed Asia's structural dependence on Gulf energy, forcing emergency rationing and a scramble toward renewables, nuclear, and non-Gulf suppliers.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Military
Israel-Hezbollah Fighting Resumes a Day After Cease-Fire
A day after a Friday cease-fire, Israeli airstrikes hit towns in southern Lebanon, killing at least seven, while Hezbollah fired more than 50 projectiles and accused Israel of advancing toward the strategic Ali al-Taher ridge near Nabatieh.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Framework Deal Ends Iran War on Iran-Favorable Terms
The U.S. signed a framework deal ending the Iran war that concedes immediate oil-export resumption, prospective sanctions relief, tens of billions in unfrozen assets, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund, while securing no regime change, no missile limits, and no curbs on Iranian proxy support.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S. and Iran Sign Memorandum to End War, Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Washington and Tehran agreed to a framework ending their war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, removing the U.S. blockade, and extending a 60-day cease-fire pending talks on sanctions and Iran's nuclear program.
Jun 14, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
US-Iran Framework Deal Ends War and Reopens Strait of Hormuz
Washington and Tehran announced a framework agreement ending roughly four months of war, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and committing to a 60-day window of nuclear negotiations.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Reopens Strait of Hormuz
Iran and the United States reached a memorandum of understanding ending nearly four months of direct hostilities and committing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, ending an Iranian closure and a U.S. naval blockade.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Framework Establishes 60-Day Ceasefire and Reopens Strait of Hormuz
The United States and Iran agreed on a framework featuring a 60-day ceasefire, reopened Strait of Hormuz, and mutual lifting of maritime blockades, with an MOU to be signed June 19 in Geneva and nuclear talks to follow.
Jun 14, 2026
De-escalating
Alliance
Trump Winds Down U.S.-Iran War With Stated War Goals Unmet
President Trump concluded the U.S.-Iran war with a deal whose central achievement, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, largely restores the prewar status quo rather than meeting his original goals of annihilating Iran's military, ending its nuclear program, and toppling the regime.
Jun 14, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
US-Iran Deal Announcement with Hormuz Reopening Commitment
Trump publicly announced via Truth Social that a US-Iran deal would be signed Sunday, with the Strait of Hormuz immediately reopened to all traffic. Iran's foreign ministry confirmed a deal was imminent but disputed the Sunday timeline.
Jun 13, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Domestic Political Fallout of U.S.-Iran Deal
Trump's MOU with Iran, read by critics as a list of concessions including resumed oil exports, sanctions relief, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund, has fractured his MAGA coalition and drawn fire from Republican hawks.
Jun 13, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Framework Agreement Announced to End Hostilities and Reopen Strait of Hormuz
A proposed memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20% of global oil shipments previously transited — in exchange for lifting the U.S. naval blockade and releasing billions in frozen Iranian assets.
Jun 13, 2026
Mixed
Political
IRGC Consolidation of Iranian Strategic Decisionmaking Post-Khamenei
Following U.S.-Israeli strikes beginning February 28 and the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran's power structure has undergone a structural reorganization.
Jun 12, 2026
Mixed
Sanctions
Strait of Hormuz Reopens Partially Under U.S.-Iran Deal
Following a preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement, the United States lifted its April naval blockade on Iranian ships and Iran began reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with 25 vessels transiting Thursday and 11 Friday, against a prewar average near 130 daily.
Jun 12, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-India Strategic Rupture Over Iran War Fallout
India lodged a strong protest after U.S. strikes in the Gulf of Oman killed three Indian seafarers, and Washington offered no apology or change to its rules of engagement.
Jun 12, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
US-Iran Ceasefire MOU Near Finalization
The United States and Iran have reportedly agreed on the terms of a Memorandum of Understanding to end active hostilities that began with US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February.
Jun 12, 2026
Unclear
Diplomatic
Trump Claims Iran Supreme Leader Approved Hormuz-Linked MOU
Trump publicly asserted that Iran's Supreme Leader had approved a memorandum of understanding with the United States, the terms of which would include opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports.
Jun 11, 2026
Stable
Diplomatic
US Killing of Indian Sailors Strains but Does Not Break India-US Ties
US military operations enforcing the Hormuz blockade killed three Indian nationals aboard the tanker MT Settebello and left another sailor's body unrecoverable, prompting India to summon the US charge d'affaires and Secretary of State Rubio to defend the action against illicit Iranian oil transport.
Jun 11, 2026
Stable
Alliance
Four Seas Initiative Proposes Gulf-Mediterranean Energy Corridor
A Washington-based think tank launched the Four Seas Initiative, a framework to route Gulf oil and gas overland through Iraq, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey to the Mediterranean, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz and reducing European dependence on Russian and Iranian energy.
Jun 11, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US-Iran Military Exchange and Ceasefire Deal Near Strait of Hormuz
Following Iran's downing of a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, the US launched two nights of strikes in southern Iran; Iran retaliated against Gulf states and a US air base in Jordan.
Jun 10, 2026
Escalating
Military
U.S. Airstrike on Shadow Fleet Tanker Settebello Killed Three Sailors
U.S. Navy missiles struck the engine room of the Settebello, a tanker that had spent at least five years moving sanctioned Iranian oil while disguising its location, killing two crew members instantly and fatally wounding a cadet.
Jun 10, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Strikes Multiple Iranian Targets in Renewed Campaign
The United States launched a fresh wave of strikes against multiple targets in Iran, extending a direct military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
Jun 10, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
G7 Evian-les-Bains Summit 2025
The G7 summit convenes June 15-17 in Evian-les-Bains under French presidency, with an agenda deliberately narrowed to avoid confrontation with the United States.
Jun 10, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US-Iran War Enters Credibility-Eroding Stalemate
The US-Iran conflict has settled into a cycle of US military strikes, Iranian drone and missile retaliation, and failed negotiations, with no political resolution in sight.
Jun 8, 2026
Escalating
Military
Houthis Ban Israeli Shipping in Red Sea Amid Iran War Fallout
The Iran-backed Houthis announced a complete ban on Israeli ships transiting the Red Sea, declaring them legitimate military targets, as the Iran war's fallout exposes the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as a second chokepoint alongside Hormuz.
Jun 7, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
US Considers Direct Purchase of Chagos Islands from Mauritius
The Trump administration is reportedly evaluating a proposal to purchase the Chagos Islands directly from Mauritius, circumventing the UK's stalled sovereignty transfer process.
Jun 6, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US Forces Destroy Iranian Drones and Strike Radar Sites Near Hormuz
US forces intercepted four Iranian one-way attack drones threatening maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, then conducted follow-on strikes against Iranian coastal surveillance radar installations at Goruk and Qeshm Island.
Jun 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
India-Oman CEPA Entry Into Force
The India-Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, signed December 18, 2025, entered into force on June 1, 2026, granting India 100 percent duty-free access across 98.08 percent of Omani tariff lines covering 99.38 percent of export value.
May 28, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
US-Iran Tentative Ceasefire Extension Agreement
The US and Iran have reportedly reached a tentative 14-point memorandum of understanding to extend their ceasefire, with terms including lifting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, restoring unrestricted Strait of Hormuz passage under Iranian-Omani management, and issuing sanctions waivers for Iranian oil exports.
May 25, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US CENTCOM Strikes Southern Iran Missile Sites and Mine-Laying Vessels
US Central Command conducted strikes on Iranian missile infrastructure and boats attempting to lay mines in southern Iran, framing the action as self-defense during an active ceasefire.
May 24, 2026
Unclear
Diplomatic
US-Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations Stall Over Core Definitional Disputes
Negotiations between the United States and Iran toward a deal ending the nuclear standoff slowed materially as both sides entrenched over two foundational issues: the framing of Iran's nuclear program in any agreement text, and the scope of financial sanctions relief Tehran would receive.
May 22, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Announces US-Iran Deal Framework After Apache Helicopter Incident
Following Iran's downing of a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent exchange of strikes, President Trump announced that a deal had been 'approved' by the US, Iran, Israel, and Gulf states, though details remain scarce.
May 22, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
2026 NPT Review Conference Collapses Without Consensus
The eleventh NPT Review Conference concluded without a consensus outcome document, the fourth consecutive failure since 2010.
May 19, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Japan-South Korea Andong Summit
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung held a bilateral summit in Andong, South Korea, five days after the Trump-Xi summit, producing concrete energy security agreements including crude oil and LNG swap arrangements.
May 13, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Seeks to Link Gwadar Port to Russia-Backed INSTC
Pakistan publicly proposed linking the China-operated Gwadar port to the Russia-backed INSTC at a Russia-Pakistan conference in Kazan, and Russia confirmed active talks including possible railway links.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Iran Establishes Persian Gulf Strait Authority to Control Strait of Hormuz
After a 40-day US-Israel war and shaky ceasefire codified in a 14-point MOU, Iran established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and unilaterally declared an expanded maritime zone encroaching on Omani and Emirati waters, mandating prior authorization for transit and signaling intent to impose fees.
Apr 25, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan Activates Iran Transit Order, Opening Six Balochistan Road Corridors
Pakistan's Ministry of Commerce issued the 'Transit of Goods through Territory of Pakistan Order 2026' on April 25, taking immediate effect and operationalizing a 2008 bilateral framework that had remained dormant.
Apr 15, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Ding Xuexiang Turkmenistan Visit Locks In Galkynysh Phase IV and Five-Year Gas Framework
Politburo Standing Committee member Ding Xuexiang visited Turkmenistan April 15–17, co-chairing the seventh PRC-Turkmenistan Cooperation Committee and signing three framework documents including a five-year cooperation plan (2026–2030) and a natural gas principles agreement.
Apr 10, 2026
Escalating
Other
Turkey Launches First Overseas Deep-Sea Drilling Mission off Somali Coast
Turkey deployed its first overseas deep-sea drilling vessel off the Somali coast, operationalizing a multi-year strategy integrating military training, port and airport investment, maritime cooperation, and energy exploration in Somalia.
Apr 8, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran War Exposes Erosion of U.S. Military-Technological Edge
In a 39-day war from February 28 to April 8, the United States conducted over 13,000 strikes on Iran yet failed to achieve its objectives, as Iran launched over 2,200 missiles and 4,400 drones, destroyed or damaged at least eight U.S. aircraft, and killed seven U.S. service members.
Apr 8, 2026
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israeli War on Iran (Operation Epic Fury)
A joint U.S.-Israeli air and naval campaign degraded over 85 percent of Iran's missile and drone production and most of its naval and launch infrastructure, but Iran adapted to an attrition strategy that drained U.S. interceptor and Tomahawk stockpiles, threatened Gulf energy and civilian infrastructure, and closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 7, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Brokers US-Iran Ceasefire, Establishing Itself as Pivotal Mediator
As Trump's ultimatum deadline over the Strait of Hormuz approached on April 7, Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir pressed Trump and Iran's surviving leadership by phone to stop the war, and within hours Washington and Tehran announced a ceasefire.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
Iran-US Ceasefire Produces New Gulf Deterrence Equilibrium
A fragile ceasefire between Iran and the United States, in place since early April 2026, has stabilized into a volatile no-war/no-peace condition while negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
US State Department Announces $10 Million for Caribbean Port Infrastructure
The US State Department announced $10 million in funding for Caribbean port infrastructure in April 2026, framed by Atlantic Council analysts as a meaningful but grossly insufficient first step against a backdrop requiring hundreds of millions in coordinated investment.
Mar 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes on Ras Laffan Cut Qatari LNG Export Capacity by 17 Percent
Iran struck two liquefaction trains at Qatar's Ras Laffan complex on 18 March, removing roughly 17 percent of national export capacity with repairs estimated at three to five years.
Mar 12, 2026
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iran Conflict Triggers Global Fertilizer Supply Cascade
The near-halt of marine traffic through the Strait of Hormuz since approximately March 12, 2026 has removed 50 percent of globally traded sulfur and 36 percent of globally traded urea from the market, while ammonia shipments from the entire Middle East — including Oman's Arabian Sea port — have completely stopped.
Mar 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Restricts Hormuz Passage, Triggering Indian Energy Supply Crisis
Iran's restriction of Strait of Hormuz passage beginning in early March 2026 severed or constrained the supply corridor through which 45% of India's crude, 50% of its LNG, and 90% of its LPG imports previously flowed, driving India's crude basket from $69 to over $114 per barrel.
Mar 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Drone Strikes on UAE and Bahrain Data Centres
Iranian drones struck major data centres in the UAE and Bahrain in March 2026, demonstrating that strategic computing infrastructure has become a primary kinetic target rather than merely a cyber vulnerability.
Feb 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
US-Israel War on Iran Erodes American Primacy in the Persian Gulf
Washington launched a surprise attack on Iran on 28 February while nuclear talks were still running, opening with the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and expecting rapid capitulation.
Feb 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
United States Resumes War on Iran Without Objectives, Authorization or Exit Strategy
The American president announced a resumed campaign against Iran on 28 February in pre-taped remarks, citing objectives that ranged from destroying missile industry to annihilating the navy to inviting Iranians to take over their government.
Feb 28, 2026
Escalating
Military
Iran Returns to Nuclear Talks After Surviving US-Israel Air Campaign
The 40-day US-Israel air campaign launched on February 28, intended to topple Iran's theocratic regime or force major concessions, failed to achieve either, leaving the regime standing.
Feb 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Operation Epic Fury: Destruction of Iran's Naval Forces
Beginning February 28, joint U.S.-Israeli strikes systematically destroyed Iran's conventional naval infrastructure across Bandar Abbas, Chah Bahar, Bushehr, Jask, Bandar Sirik, Qeshm, and Bandar Anzali.
Feb 28, 2026
De-escalating
Political
Iran Leadership Transition Fractures Iraq Militia Command Structure
The Israeli strike that killed Ali Khamenei on February 28 and the subsequent accession of Mojtaba Khamenei has restructured Iranian governance into a de facto juntocracy, with a council of senior IRGC generals absorbing strategic decision-making authority.
Feb 28, 2026
Escalating
Military
U.S.-Israeli War on Iran Produces Generational Leadership Transition and New Strategic Posture
U.S. and Israeli airstrikes beginning February 28, 2026 triggered a leadership succession in Iran following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, installing a new IRGC-dominated technocratic-nationalist generation.
Feb 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran's Gulf-Wide Strikes Break the US Security Bargain
Within 48 hours of the war beginning, Iran struck every member of the Gulf Cooperation Council, ending the assumption that American protection made those states unattackable.
Feb 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Following U.S. Military Strike
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to U.S. military strikes, triggering a 50 percent rise in American gas prices within weeks, fuel shortages forcing four-day workweeks in some Asian countries, and fertilizer scarcity threatening African agricultural cycles.
Jan 30, 2026
Escalating
Military
Türkiye Deploys F-16s to Somalia, Escalating to Direct Operational Role
Türkiye deployed F-16 fighter jets to Somalia on January 30 to protect its expanding strategic assets and back Mogadishu's campaign against Al-Shabaab, marking a shift from training and advisory support to direct operations.
Jan 21, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Rubio Rejects Iranian Tolls on Strait of Hormuz
Secretary of State Rubio, on a Gulf tour, declared that no country may charge ships for passage through the Strait of Hormuz, rejecting Iran's asserted right to levy fees and drawing a hard negotiating line in post-war US-Iran talks.
Jan 7, 2026
Mixed
Alliance
U.S. Withdrawal From 66 International Bodies and Multilateral Coercion Campaign
The Trump administration directed withdrawal from 31 UN entities and 35 non-UN intergovernmental bodies, completed exit from the WHO, and withheld roughly $4 billion in UN dues to force structural reform.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Military
Maven Smart System Deployed at Scale in U.S. War Against Iran
During the first 24 hours of U.S. military operations against Iran, MSS enabled strikes on more than 1,000 targets — a tenfold increase over pre-MSS capacity — by fusing 179+ data sources into a single AI-assisted targeting interface.
Dec 26, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Israel Recognises Somaliland as First UN Member State
Israel became the first United Nations member state to recognise Somaliland as sovereign, ending 34 years in which no state had done so.
Jul 17, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US-Iran Military Exchange in Strait of Hormuz
US and Iranian forces exchanged fire in the Strait of Hormuz, with the US military confirming strikes on Iranian military sites.
Jul 14, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Publicly Claims Netanyahu Will Comply on Iran Deal Terms
Trump publicly stated that Netanyahu 'will do whatever I want him to do' on Iran — an assertion no U.S. president has made publicly about an Israeli leader.
Jul 12, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan-Qatar Brokered Iran-US Provisional Peace Deal
Pakistani and Qatari officials brokered a provisional outline agreement between Tehran and Washington following the Iran war, with eight Muslim-majority nations pressuring Trump to accept terms covering the Strait of Hormuz reopening and renewed nuclear negotiations.
Jul 9, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Escalates Direct Military Strikes on Iranian Territory
U.S. Central Command launched a new round of strikes against multiple targets inside Iran, including air defense systems, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites, following a U.S.
Jul 9, 2025
Escalating
Military
U.S. Military Escorts 200+ Commercial Vessels Through Strait of Hormuz
U.S. Central Command has shepherded over 200 commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in approximately one month, with ships running dark — transponders off — to avoid Iranian detection and attack.
Jun 18, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Collapse and Renewed Strikes Near Strait of Hormuz
Two months after a declared cease-fire, U.S. and Iranian forces are engaged in sustained reciprocal strikes. U.S. Central Command struck Iranian air defenses, radar
Jun 18, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Strikes Damage Water Infrastructure in Hormozgan Province
U.S. Central Command conducted precision strikes against Iranian air defense infrastructure, ground control stations, and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz in Hormozgan province.
Jun 18, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
U.S. Congress Advances War Powers Resolutions to End Iran Hostilities
The House of Representatives is poised to vote on a concurrent resolution ordering withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Iran war, while the Senate advances a legally binding joint resolution.
Jun 15, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
US-Iran Ceasefire and Nuclear MOU Announced
The United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending active hostilities, including US commitments to lift a naval blockade and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
Jun 15, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Trump-Putin Phone Call on Ukraine Peace and Iran Deal
Trump and Putin held a roughly one-hour phone call in which Trump framed ending the Ukraine war as critical and offered US assistance. Trump also disclosed to Putin that a US-Iran peace deal is imminent.
Jun 13, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran MOU Negotiations Near Preliminary Agreement
The United States and Iran are reported to be near a memorandum of understanding that would extend a ceasefire for sixty days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed since late February 2025.
Jun 13, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israeli Strike on Iranian Nuclear Infrastructure
A coordinated U.S.-Israeli strike on June 13, 2025 targeted Iran's nuclear infrastructure and killed senior Iranian officials, effectively terminating the diplomatic counterproliferation framework that had governed Western policy toward Iran's nuclear program for decades.
Jun 12, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
UAE-Iran Bilateral Financial Transfer Agreement for Attack Cessation
The UAE has agreed to transfer $10–20 billion to Iran — with over $3 billion already disbursed — in exchange for Iran halting missile and drone attacks on UAE territory, including the May 4 strike on Fujairah port.
Jun 12, 2025
Escalating
Military
US Military Strikes Three Tankers Enforcing Iran Port Blockade
US forces struck three commercial tankers — Marivex, Settebello, and Jalveer — over three days in the Gulf of Oman region, killing at least three Indian sailors and forcing evacuation of dozens more.
Jun 12, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US-Iran Mutual Strikes and Kharg Island Seizure Threat
The United States and Iran exchanged airstrikes for the second consecutive day, with Iran's IRGC targeting US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan, and the US striking multiple targets across Iran.
Jun 11, 2025
De-escalating
Other
World Bank Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast Citing Middle East War
The World Bank's semi-annual Global Economic Prospects report downgraded 2026 global growth to 2.5%, the lowest since COVID, driven by the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the resulting Strait of Hormuz closure.
Jun 11, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Airstrike Destroys Water Facility Near Strait of Hormuz
U.S. Central Command conducted precision airstrikes near the Strait of Hormuz using Air Force and Navy fighter jets
Jun 10, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US-Iran Mutual Strike Exchange Near Strait of Hormuz
The US struck Iranian air defenses, ground control stations, and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz following the downing of a US Apache helicopter.
Jun 10, 2025
De-escalating
Alliance
U.S. Reduces NATO Force Model Commitments by One-Third to One-Half
Pentagon official Alexander Velez-Green notified NATO allies at a closed-door Defense Policy Directors' meeting in Brussels that the U.S. would reduce its NATO Force Model contributions by one-third to one-half.
Jun 9, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Min Aung Hlaing State Visit to China
Myanmar's President Min Aung Hlaing is conducting a state visit to China, his second foreign trip since transitioning from military junta leader to nominal head of state.
Jun 9, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
G7 Summit Évian-les-Bains 2025 — Western Alliance Fragmentation
The 2025 G7 summit convenes in Évian-les-Bains under conditions of structural Western disunity, with European members no longer treating the United States as a partner on core issues including climate, NATO, and regional security.
Jun 9, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
US Energy Secretary Confirms Rising Hormuz Oil Flows and Venezuelan Export Tripling
US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright publicly confirmed that oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are rising 'very meaningfully,' signaling partial restoration of Gulf energy flows disrupted by the ongoing Iran conflict.
Jun 9, 2025
Escalating
Legal
UK Foreign Influence and Proxy Criminalization Law Imminent Entry into Force
The UK government announced that new legislation criminalizing proxy activity on behalf of hostile states — including Iran, Russia, and China — is expected to enter into force in July 2025.
Jun 9, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
EU Activates Freedom-of-Navigation Sanctions Regime Against Iran Over Hormuz Closure
The EU designated the IRGC Hormozgan Provincial Command, Deputy IRGC Navy Political Affairs Commander Mohammad Akbarzadeh, and oil exporters' union representative Hamid Hosseini under a newly activated freedom-of-navigation sanctions framework.
Jun 8, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Post-Ceasefire Escalation Campaign: Direct Strikes on Gulf States, Israel, and U.S. Forces
Following an April 2025 ceasefire, Iran launched a sustained escalation campaign including June 8 missile strikes on northern Israel, attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and a drone collision with a U.S. military helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz.
Jun 8, 2025
Escalating
Military
US Forces Disable Sanctioned Tanker MT Marivex in Gulf of Oman
A US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet from USS Abraham Lincoln struck the MT Marivex, a Palau-flagged tanker previously sanctioned for alleged Iran links, in the Gulf of Oman after the vessel allegedly attempted to reach an Iranian port in violation of a US-imposed blockade.
Jun 8, 2025
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Total Ban on Israeli Red Sea Shipping
The Houthis announced a total ban on Israeli maritime navigation in the Red Sea and launched an accompanying attack on Israel, explicitly framing this as a first step toward broader interdiction including ships bound for Israeli ports.
Jun 8, 2025
De-escalating
Other
OPEC+ Fourth Consecutive Output Quota Increase Amid Hormuz Supply Collapse
Seven core OPEC+ members are set to approve a ~188,000 bpd quota increase for July, the fourth consecutive monthly hike, despite actual group production collapsing from 42.77 million bpd in February to 33.19 million bpd in April due to Hormuz export disruptions caused by the U.S.-Iran war.
Jun 7, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran Strait of Hormuz Escalation: Drone Intercepts and Radar Site Strikes
U.S. CENTCOM struck Iranian surveillance radar sites at Goruk and on Qeshm Island after intercepting four Iranian drones targeting Strait of Hormuz maritime traffic.
Jun 5, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Israel's Lebanon Offensive Stalls Against Hezbollah Drone Warfare
Israel's ground offensive into Lebanon, launched after the collapse of a 2024 ceasefire and accelerated by the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran, has produced a battlefield stalemate rather than Hezbollah's disarmament.
Jun 4, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Eid al-Adha 2025 Observed Across Conflict-Affected Middle East
Eid al-Adha 2025 was observed across Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, the West Bank, and Gaza under conditions of active warfare, economic collapse, and mass displacement.
Jun 4, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran Second Military Exchange Under Active Cease-Fire
U.S. forces struck targets in southern Iran and sank two Iranian speedboats allegedly attempting to mine the Strait of Hormuz — the second significant military exchange since a cease-fire was agreed roughly seven weeks prior.
Jun 3, 2025
Mixed
Military
Iranian Drone Downs U.S. Apache Near Strait of Hormuz
An Iranian drone detonated in front of a U.S. Apache helicopter conducting maritime patrol near the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the aircraft down and its two pilots into the water.
Jun 3, 2025
Mixed
Sanctions
EU Proposes 21st Russia Sanctions Package Targeting Energy Revenues and Shadow Fleet
The European Commission proposed its 21st sanctions package against Russia, targeting oil earnings, shadow fleet tankers, ports, refineries, LNG tanker sales, and additional Russian banks.
Jun 3, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Oval Office Remarks on U.S.-Iran War and Stalled Nuclear Deal
Trump addressed reporters in the Oval Office, asserting the three-month-old U.S.-Iran military conflict was proceeding well despite 13 U.S. service member deaths, ~1,700 Iranian civilian casualties, and no signed peace framework.
Jun 2, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
UN Security Council Emergency Session on Israeli Military Operations in Lebanon
An emergency UN Security Council meeting convened by France produced near-unanimous condemnation of Israel's expanding military operations in southern Lebanon, with the United States the sole dissenter.
Jun 2, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump Intermediary Contact with Hezbollah and Netanyahu on Lebanon Ceasefire
Trump announced via Truth Social that he had communicated with both Netanyahu and Hezbollah through intermediaries, securing pledges to halt offensive operations in Lebanon.
Jun 2, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump Intermediary Contacts with Hezbollah and Netanyahu on Lebanon Ceasefire
Trump announced via Truth Social that he had conducted intermediary communications with both Netanyahu and Hezbollah, extracting pledges to halt offensive operations in Lebanon.
Jun 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
Netanyahu Orders Beirut Airstrike Amid Iran Nuclear Talks
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu directed the Israeli Air Force to strike Beirut on June 1, a move the article frames as deliberately calibrated to provoke Iranian retaliation and derail ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Ukraine Operation Spider's Web: Drone Strike on Russian Strategic Bomber Bases
Ukrainian intelligence operatives infiltrated Russia and concealed short-range attack drones in cargo trucks near multiple Russian air bases, including facilities as distant as the Amur region near the Chinese border.
Jun 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Israel-Iran Missile Exchange Defies Trump Ceasefire Pressure
Iran fired 11 ballistic missiles at Israel following Israeli strikes in Beirut, all intercepted with no casualties. Despite Trump publicly claiming he 'calls all the shots' and would ask Netanyahu to stand down
May 31, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
GUIDE Framework Launch and AUKUS Cable Protection Project Announced at Shangri-La Dialogue
Singapore led the launch of GUIDE — a 17-country voluntary framework for information sharing and cooperative defence of underwater critical infrastructure — at the Shangri-La Dialogue.
May 27, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
South Korea Attributes Hormuz Cargo Ship Attack to Iranian Missile
South Korea's Foreign Ministry formally assessed that the May 4 attack on the bulk carrier Namu in the Strait of Hormuz involved an Iranian anti-ship missile, citing debris with Iranian-manufactured components and engine signatures consistent with Noor or Qader missile systems.
May 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Operation Epic Fury Strategic Stalemate and May 25 Strikes on Iran
U.S. forces struck targets in southern Iran on May 25, 2025, following a failed cease-fire and inconclusive negotiations over a memorandum of understanding.
May 23, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
IRGC Withholds Approval of US-Iran Ceasefire MOU Framework
Mediators confirmed that Iran's IRGC security establishment has not endorsed the preliminary ceasefire memorandum of understanding that Trump publicly declared complete, exposing a structural split between Iran's Foreign Ministry and its parallel military decision-making apparatus.
May 22, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Military Strikes Third Commercial Tanker Enforcing Iran Blockade
U.S. Central Command struck the tanker Jalveer in the Gulf of Oman, the third commercial vessel disabled within a week under enforcement of a U.S.-imposed blockade on Iran.
May 22, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting in New Delhi
The foreign ministers of Australia, India, Japan, and the United States convened in New Delhi, marking a continuity signal for the Quad amid doubts about the grouping's survival following the absence of a leaders-level summit since 2024.
May 21, 2025
Escalating
Military
US Military Strike on Tanker Settebello Kills Three Indian Sailors
US Central Command struck the Palau-flagged oil tanker Settebello in the Gulf of Oman, firing munitions into its engine room after crew allegedly failed to comply with orders enforcing a US blockade on Iranian oil exports.
May 21, 2025
Escalating
Cyber
Russia GPS Spoofing Infrastructure Expansion Across Baltic and Beyond
Russia expanded its GPS spoofing antennae from 3 to 36 since the start of 2025, creating persistent navigational interference across the Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, and adjacent airspace.
May 18, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Framework Excludes Israeli War Objectives
A U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding under negotiation would extend the April cease-fire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports, and initiate negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and sanctions relief.
May 17, 2025
Mixed
Military
Partial Strait of Hormuz Transit Resumption Under U.S. Military Coordination
A small number of commercial vessels, including supertankers carrying crude oil and LNG, are transiting the Strait of Hormuz using dark-sailing techniques and real-time coordination with U.S. Central Command.
May 14, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Strikes Iranian Drone-Control Station Near Bandar Abbas
U.S. F/A-18, F-16, and F-35 aircraft shot down four Iranian one-way attack drones targeting American and commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, then struck a drone-control station near Bandar Abbas before a fifth drone could be launched.
May 8, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Issues Military and Economic Ultimatum to Iran Over Nuclear Program
President Trump publicly threatened to strike Iran 'VERY HARD' and take 'total control' of its oil and gas markets if Tehran does not agree to a nuclear deal.
May 8, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Bangladesh-Pakistan Security MoU and High-Level Diplomatic Engagement
Pakistani Interior Minister Syed Mohsin Naqvi visited Dhaka on May 8–9, 2025, meeting Bangladesh's Home Minister and State Minister for Foreign Affairs and signing an MoU on security cooperation covering intelligence exchange, counter-narcotics, anti-money laundering, and cross-border crime.
May 8, 2025
Mixed
Sanctions
Iran Shadow Fleet Oil Transfers Continue Despite U.S. Blockade
Iran's shadow fleet continues to export approximately 1.4 million barrels per day to China via ship-to-ship transfers in the Eastern Outer Port Limits off Malaysia, generating roughly $31 billion in annual oil revenue despite a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports.
May 6, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum: Hormuz Disruption Reshapes Energy Corridor Strategy
The Atlantic Council's tenth Global Energy Forum convened policymakers and energy executives to assess structural responses to the Strait of Hormuz disruption caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran.
May 6, 2025
Escalating
Military
Israeli Airstrike Campaign on Tyre and Southern Lebanon
Israeli airstrikes struck Tyre and multiple towns across southern Lebanon following evacuation warnings, killing at least eight and wounding dozens.
May 5, 2025
Escalating
Military
U.S. Navy Strikes Oil Tanker Marivex Under Iran Naval Blockade
A U.S. Navy aircraft from the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group fired on the oil tanker Marivex off Oman's coast, disabling the vessel after its crew allegedly failed to comply with blockade directives.
May 4, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Israel Strikes Hezbollah Command Center in Beirut's Dahiya
Israel struck a Hezbollah command center in the Dahiya neighborhood on Beirut's southern outskirts following Hezbollah drone and rocket attacks on northern Israel.
May 4, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Hormuz Ceasefire and Initial Agreement
The United States and Iran reached an initial agreement — framed by Iran as a memorandum of understanding — to lift the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with mine clearance operations expected before finalization.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
US-Iran Framework Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening Agreement
The United States and Iran agreed a framework deal to end more than two months of active hostilities, with a central provision being the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Collapses as Hezbollah Rejects Terms
A U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon disintegrated within hours of announcement as Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem publicly rejected its terms, demanding full Israeli withdrawal before any halt to operations.
Apr 30, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Forces Kill Indian Sailors Enforcing Iran Naval Blockade
U.S. military forces fired on a Palau-flagged oil tanker during enforcement of its Iran blockade, killing three Indian nationals aboard. This is the first confirmed fatality event attributed to the American blockade operation.
Apr 27, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iran Ballistic Missile Strike on Northern Israel Breaks Cease-Fire
Iran fired ballistic missiles at northern Israel, the first direct Iranian strike since a cease-fire paused the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran approximately two months prior.
Apr 27, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan-China Summit: CPEC Expansion and Strategic Alignment Reaffirmed
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir visited Beijing for high-level meetings with Xi Jinping, Li Qiang, and Wang Yi, producing a joint statement and multiple MoUs.
Apr 23, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Iran Direct Military Exchange Near Strait of Hormuz
The United States struck Iranian air defense infrastructure, ground control stations, and radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz following the downing of a US Army helicopter in the Gulf.
Apr 23, 2025
Escalating
Military
Iranian Shahed Drone Strike on Kuwait International Airport
An Iranian Shahed drone struck Terminal 1 of Kuwait International Airport, killing one person and injuring dozens, days after Kuwait had fully reopened the facility following prior war damage.
Apr 23, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Issues Military Threat Against Oman Over Hormuz Control Deal
President Trump publicly threatened to bomb Oman if it enters any agreement with Iran to share control of or charge fees for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Apr 22, 2025
De-escalating
Legal
UK Fast-Tracks State Threats Legislation Targeting Criminal Proxies
The UK government introduced emergency legislation to extend the National Security Act 2023, which was rendered inadequate by foreign states' use of criminal proxies rather than formal intelligence services.
Apr 21, 2025
Escalating
Military
U.S. Navy Corsair USV Conducts First Autonomous Rescue Near Strait of Hormuz
A U.S. Navy Corsair unmanned surface vessel operated by Task Force 59 rescued the two-person crew of an AH-64 Apache helicopter downed near the Omani coast, reportedly by an Iranian Shahed-type one-way attack drone.
Apr 17, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US-Iran Ceasefire Collapse and Escalatory Exchange
The US and Iran exchanged strikes for a second consecutive day, with the US targeting Iranian military surveillance, communications, and air-defense infrastructure, while Iran launched missiles and drones at Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.
Apr 17, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Hezbollah Rejects U.S.-Brokered Israel-Lebanon Cease-Fire
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem publicly rejected a U.S.-brokered cease-fire framework agreed between Israel and Lebanon's government, calling it a humiliating surrender.
Apr 14, 2025
Stable
Military
US Apache Helicopter Crash Near Strait of Hormuz — First Sea Drone Rescue
A US Army AH-64 Apache helicopter went down near the coast of Oman while conducting a patrol of regional waters in the Strait of Hormuz area.
Apr 14, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Israel Strikes Mahshahr Petrochemical Complex Post-Ceasefire
Israel struck the Karun petrochemical plant within Iran's Bandar Imam Petrochemical Complex — Iran's largest — just one week after a ceasefire was agreed between the two countries on April 7.
Apr 8, 2025
Mixed
Military
UAE Conducts Independent Strike on Iranian Oil Infrastructure at Lavan Island
UAE fighter jets struck oil refineries on Iran's Lavan Island on April 8, just before a cease-fire paused a weeks-long U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran.
Apr 1, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Naval Blockade of Iranian Ports and Strait of Hormuz Standoff
The United States imposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports in April 2025, deploying approximately two dozen warships including two aircraft carriers to enforce a chokehold on Iranian maritime trade.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iran Activates Central Asia Rail Corridor Under Hormuz Blockade
Following a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz beginning in April 2025, Iran has accelerated use of the 10,400-kilometer Xi'an–Tehran railway corridor through Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.
Mar 27, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Philippines Executes Dual-Track Hedge: Alliance Maintenance with U.S. Alongside Diplomatic Re-engagement with China
The Philippines resumed high-level diplomatic engagement with China through the 24th Foreign Ministry Consultations and 11th Bilateral Consultation Mechanism on the South China Sea (March 27-28, Quanzhou), the first such consultations since 2023.
Mar 8, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iran Missile and Drone Strikes on Saudi Arabia and Gulf States
Iran launched waves of missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia and Gulf neighbors in retaliation for US and Israeli air strikes, killing two Saudi civilians in al-Kharj and one US service member at Prince Sultan Air Base.
Mar 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iran IRGC Drone Strikes on AWS Data Centers in UAE and Bahrain
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck two Amazon Web Services data centers in the UAE with Shahed drones on March 1, 2025, with an AWS facility in Bahrain also damaged.
Feb 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Military Campaign Against Iran (Operation Epic Fury) and Strait of Hormuz Disruption
The United States launched a major strike campaign against Iran beginning February 28, 2025, targeting naval, missile, drone, and air defense capabilities and killing senior regime and military leadership.
Feb 28, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Iran War Missile Exchange and Radar Infrastructure Attrition
Following U.S. decapitation strikes against Iranian leadership on February 28, Iran retaliated with sustained missile and drone barrages of approximately 20–30 missiles per day against U.S. and allied military sites across the region.
Feb 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US-Israeli Strikes Damage 51+ Iranian Military Bases
US and Israeli strikes since 28 February 2025 have confirmed damage across 51 Iranian military sites, including IRGC headquarters, air force bases, naval facilities, and ballistic missile infrastructure.
Feb 28, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S. Operation Epic Fury Against Iran
The United States launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on or around February 28, 2025, deploying three carrier strike groups, conducting over 10,000 sorties against 13,000+ Iranian targets, destroying Iran's submarine fleet and over 150 warships, and imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports from April 13.
Feb 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iran Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Following U.S.-Israeli Strikes
Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran beginning February 28, 2025, Iran imposed restrictions on and ultimately blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, with a subsequent 'double blockade' involving both Iran and the U.S.
Feb 28, 2025
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran Strategic Deadlock Following Operation Epic Fury
Three months after the U.S.-Israeli Operation Epic Fury (launched February 28), the United States and Iran remain locked in a mutual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, removing approximately 14 million barrels per day of Persian Gulf oil from world markets.
Feb 28, 2025
Escalating
Military
U.S. PrSM Strikes on Lamerd, Iran — Civilian Casualties Documented
U.S. forces struck residential areas of Lamerd, a city in southern Iran's Fars Province, using Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) on February 28, the first day of a declared U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran.
Feb 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Iran Economic Collapse and Civilian Deterioration Following U.S.-Israeli Strikes
Sustained U.S. and Israeli strikes beginning in late February 2025 destroyed Iranian industrial, transport, and residential infrastructure, triggering an economic free fall.
Dec 1, 2024
Escalating
Institutional
US Counter-UAS Institutional Buildup: Safer Skies Act, Executive Orders, and JIATF-401
The United States has initiated a multi-track institutional response to growing domestic drone threats, including passage of the Safer Skies Act expanding C-UAS authority to state and local law enforcement, two Trump executive orders on UAS integration and critical infrastructure protection, creation of Joint Interagency Task Force 401 as the lead C-UAS coordination body, and a $250 million FEMA grant program targeting World Cup host states.
Sep 2, 2024
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Netanyahu Suspends Iran Strike Plans Following Trump Pressure
Following a phone call with President Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to stand down from planned retaliatory strikes against Iran.
Jan 1, 2024
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Military Aid to Israel Reaches Post-WWII Peak Amid Gaza War
Since October 7, 2023, the United States has delivered at least $16.3 billion in direct military aid to Israel across three legislative packages, including 90,000 tons of arms on 800 transport planes and 140 ships.
Jun 20, 2023
Mixed
Diplomatic
Canada, US, and Chile Convene Expert Talks on Electoral Disinformation
Canada's permanent mission to the Organization of American States convened an expert discussion with United States and Chilean counterparts on countering disinformation in electoral processes, pursuant to the Inter-American Action Plan on Democratic Governance.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Gulf Rivalry Pulls African Red Sea States Into Competing Security Architectures
US and Israeli offensives against Iran and Iranian retaliation against Gulf states have undercut confidence in American security guarantees, driving Riyadh and Abu Dhabi from coordination into open competition.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US Force Design Misaligned With Adversary Strategies of Attrition
The analysis holds that the United States has built a military around small numbers of sophisticated expensive systems, an industrial base that cannot replace them quickly, and strategies that leave the political conditions for victory unresolved.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US War Aims Against Iran Unmet as Tehran Holds Hormuz and Houthis Take Bab el-Mandeb
Seven months into the war, Washington's stated objectives remain unmet: Iranian proxies have expanded, ballistic missile production has resumed underground, the regime is more entrenched under military-security leadership, and roughly 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium remain unaccounted for with inspectors excluded for over six months.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
United States Contracts Eleven Arctic Cutters to Rebuild Neglected Polar Industrial Base
The United States finalized contracts for eleven medium Arctic Security Cutters worth $6.8 billion across American and Finnish yards, funded a third heavy Polar Security Cutter, requested $900 million for an Antarctic research vessel and appropriated funds for replacement ski-equipped transport aircraft.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Houthi Offensive Seizes Yemen's Southwestern Coast and Bab el-Mandeb Approaches
Iran-backed Houthi forces executed a rapid offensive along Yemen's southwestern coast, putting them in position to control the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US-China Balance Shifts Toward Beijing Ahead of Washington Summit
Across nineteen months the trade deficit has not closed, with the Peterson Institute finding the tariff war mainly rerouted Chinese exports through Vietnam, Taiwan and Mexico.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US War With Iran Settles Into Strategic Quagmire
The war with Iran is assessed as a self-inflicted quagmire entered on the advice of self-interested parties and on the expectation that Iranians would rise against their leadership once the top ranks were removed.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China Absorbs Strait of Hormuz Supply Shock Through Reserves and Electrification
With Hormuz closed, China lost roughly a third of its crude imports, falling from 12 million barrels per day before the war to under 8 million in May and June.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Militant Strike Disables Saudi Arabia's Primary Oil Export Bypass Pipeline
Militants disabled the pipeline that had become the most consequential oil artery in the world, the route built specifically to move Saudi crude without transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Overland Trade Reroute Stalls at Pakistan Border Under U.S. Blockade
Iran responded to a U.S. blockade by pledging to push more trade overland, but hundreds of Iranian truck drivers are stuck at the border with Pakistan and the reroute is not proceeding as planned.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Asian Realignment Follows BRICS Summit as US Commitments Turn Conditional
The discussion places the New Delhi Declaration's preserved consensus alongside an India-China stabilization that stops short of realignment.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
India Chairs BRICS Summit That Avoids Naming Its Core Disputes
India hosted the BRICS summit in New Delhi with both the Chinese and Russian leaders present, and the adopted declaration omitted Hormuz, Iran, Ukraine, the dollar and the United States.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Saudi Arabia Fires Chinese Ballistic Missile in Yemen for First Time
Debris recovered in Yemen points to the first combat use by Saudi Arabia of a Chinese-made ballistic missile, per Yemeni officials and weapons analysts.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Underwater Persistence Becomes the Decisive Variable in China-US Naval Competition
The assessment places subsurface awareness at the center of maritime power, covering submarine movement, anti-submarine warfare, mine warfare and the security of undersea infrastructure.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
New Delhi BRICS Summit Produces Unanimous Joint Declaration
India hosted the 18th BRICS summit and secured unanimous endorsement of a joint declaration after the May foreign ministers' meeting collapsed over Iran language and an Emirati-Iranian dispute.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran's Hormuz Closure Hardens Into a Transit Fee Regime
Six months into the closure, daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen from more than one hundred to a handful.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran Shifts From Proxy Network to Hormuz Chokepoint After Axis Collapse
With the proxy architecture built after 2003 largely dismantled, Iran has asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz as its principal instrument of regional leverage.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Remain Constrained in Seventh Month of Iran War
Two of the world's most important maritime chokepoints are no longer freely transited as the Iran war enters its seventh month.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Iraq Courts US Oil Majors and Syria Export Route to Reset Washington Ties
Baghdad is trying to replace a security relationship with a commercial one as US forces leave, pursuing ExxonMobil for Majnoon and Chevron for West Qurna-2 alongside a Qatari-US consortium study of pipelines from Haditha to Baniyas and Ceyhan.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Pakistan and Oman Negotiate Gwadar-Sohar Sister-Port Arrangement
Pakistan and Oman are discussing an agreement designating Gwadar and Sohar as sister ports, covering operational coordination, joint training, shared commercial discounts to shipping lines and berth priority for each other's vessels, with Omani investment in the Gwadar Free Zone also under discussion.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Shadow Tanker Fleet Hardens Into Parallel Maritime System Under Russian State Protection
The clandestine tanker fleet has grown from roughly 200 vessels before 2022 to more than 1,300, about one in five oil tankers worldwide, and is now backed by Russian marine insurance, non-dollar settlement and state flag protection.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Houthis Designate Yemen's Leading Independent Mediator a State Enemy
The Houthis invited a prominent Yemeni mediator to Sana'a to negotiate an economic de-escalation, then placed him on their state enemy list and broadcast a television programme accusing him of being a Western spy after he declined to travel.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
U.S. Ties Chinese Satellite Imagery to Lethal Iranian Strike on American Troops
US officials have linked Chinese-supplied satellite imagery to an Iranian strike that killed American troops, which they characterize as the clearest evidence yet that Chinese support for Iran during the war has produced lethal consequences for US forces.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Foreign Policy Weekly News Quiz Roundup of Mid-September Developments
The quiz format carries eight distinct developments with no single power event among them. Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany won a state election on Sunday but fell short of a governing majority.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US-Iran War Erodes Partner Confidence in American Security Guarantees
The war's economic effects are showing up far from the Gulf as layoffs in the UAE and as rising prices, supply delays, and reduced tourism in India.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
United States Dismantles Its Democracy Support Architecture
Washington eliminated roughly 90 percent of US democracy aid, closed USAID, dissolved the National Security Council democracy directorate, and reoriented the State Department's democracy bureau.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Twenty-Fifth Anniversary Reckoning With the Post-9/11 Strategic Record
The piece marks twenty-five years since the September 11 attacks with a structural audit of what the war on terror cost the United States in military capacity, credibility and strategic attention.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Case for Indian Maritime Denial at the Strait of Malacca
The piece sets out an asymmetric deterrence argument for India built on unmanned systems, naval mines, submarines operating from the Bay of Bengal and long-range anti-ship missiles fired from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Hormuz Blockage and Ukraine War Converge to Raise Global Food Crisis Risk
Grain disruption from Russia's war, fertiliser shipment restriction from the blocked Strait of Hormuz and a potentially severe El Nino are compounding into a food crisis risk affecting hundreds of millions already food insecure.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Ghana Completes Debt Recovery as Hormuz Shock Hits West African Import Costs
Ghana recorded six percent growth in 2025 with inflation down to fourteen percent from thirty-three in 2023 and public debt falling from seventy percent of GDP to under forty-nine after restructuring, three years on from selective default.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
India Hosts BRICS Leaders' Summit in New Delhi
New Delhi is preparing a heavily staged summit on 12 and 13 September, following a foreign ministers' forum in May, with economic resilience as a central theme aimed at American tariffs.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China Retains Rare Earth Chokepoint Leverage as US Export-Control Pause Nears Expiry
A year after the US and China paused reciprocal export restrictions, Chinese control of rare earth mining, processing and magnet manufacture remains intact and has been used repeatedly to apply economic pressure.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Resumes Ballistic Missile Production in Underground Facilities
Officials from the United States and regional states report that Iran has restarted ballistic missile manufacturing, using pre-existing component stockpiles and hardened underground sites.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Draft Letter Presses Partners to Choose Between Pax Silica and China's AI Bloc
A draft State Department letter reported in August warned partners against combining membership in the U.S.-led Pax Silica initiative with competing arrangements, an unnamed but obvious reference to China's Shanghai-based WAICO.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Strait of Hormuz Closure Passes Six Months Without the Expected Energy Crisis
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz roughly six months ago produced the largest disruption of global energy flow on record, yet the widely forecast economic crisis has not materialised.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Yemen's Four-Year Stalemate Collapses as All Parties Move Toward Escalation
Fighting is escalating between the Houthis and Yemeni government forces and across the Saudi border, ending the truce that has held since 2022.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
United States Tightens Foreign Investment Screening as Industrial Policy Turns Inward
Federal, state and local authorities are restricting inbound investment across data storage, critical mineral processing and chipmaking, extending the aversion from China to allies.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
White House Advisers Privately Warn Iran War Could Last Through Trump's Term
Senior White House advisers have raised with the president the prospect that the war with Iran continues for the remainder of his term, a planning assumption at odds with his public claim of swift victory.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Saudi Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement Submitted to Congress for Review
The 123 agreement reaching Congress does not require Riyadh to forgo enrichment and reprocessing or to accept the Additional Protocol, and instead names a potential future pathway to enrichment cooperation preceded by a two-year joint study.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Operation Inherent Resolve Ends as US Troops Complete Iraq Withdrawal
The final US troops are scheduled to leave Iraq on 30 September under the 2024 bilateral agreement, ending the Defeat ISIS Coalition's military mission and more than two decades of American military engagement.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Geoeconomic Fragmentation Erodes Multilateral Financial Institutions' Leverage
Global imbalances have risen from about 2.4 percent of world GDP in 2019 to about 3.6 percent in 2025, with structural factors driving 55 to 60 percent of them.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US War on Iran Stalls as Washington's Planning Institutions Fail
Seven months into the US and Israeli campaign against Iran, costing roughly a billion dollars a day during heavy fighting, Washington has abandoned its maximalist aims and is seeking terms inferior to the prewar status quo.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Iran Accelerates Construction and Hardening at Pickaxe Mountain Underground Complex
Imagery through July and August 2026 shows road activity at Pickaxe Mountain exceeding any prior point, with portal accesses raised and hardened, internal roads paved, access areas reinforced and excavation spoil removed.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Russia's Shadow Fleet Restores Oil Revenue as U.S. Sanctions Enforcement Lapses
Russia's discount to global oil prices has all but vanished after Washington stopped adding vessels to its sanctions list and granted waivers to buyers of Russian crude, leaving 524 tankers under European but not American designation shipping oil unimpeded.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Black Sea Grain Strikes Compound Hormuz Fertilizer Shock
Russia struck Ukrainian food export facilities and cargo vessels at Odesa in late July, and Ukraine answered with missile strikes on two grain export terminals at Novorossiysk.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Sanctioned Iranian Carrier Expands Route Network Despite US Designation
An Iranian airline accused of moving cash, weapons, and personnel for the Revolutionary Guard is adding destinations and expanding its footprint after more than a decade under US sanctions.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
United States Drops Terrorism From National Security Priority List
Counterterrorism ranked seventh among global priorities in the 2022 National Security Strategy and does not appear at all in the 2025 iteration's eight priority items, where terrorism is cited once in passing as a transborder threat.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iran Reorders Deterrence Around Missiles and Hormuz After Axis Collapse
Three years of war have inverted Iran's defensive architecture. The allied network that was meant to absorb conflict now depends on Tehran for protection
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
European Push for an Anti-Hunger Coalition Ahead of the UN General Assembly
Two wars and a climate shock are compounding into a food-supply crisis with no institutional owner. Roughly a third of seaborne fertiliser cannot move because Hormuz is blocked
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Naval Blockade Halts Iranian Oil Exports From the Persian Gulf
An American naval blockade has prevented Iran from shipping any oil out of the Persian Gulf since July, while Iran continues to squeeze the Strait of Hormuz against commercial traffic.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Houthi Ground Offensive Toward Mokha and the Bab al-Mandab
Houthi forces escalated from missile and drone attacks to sustained ground combat around western Taiz, seeking to cut supply routes to Mokha in preparation for a push on the port.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Draws Regional Backlash
Israel recognized Somaliland in late December 2025, drawing formal objections from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the European Union on territorial integrity grounds.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
US Allies Build Intelligence Autonomy Amid Doubts on Washington
Allies across Europe, Asia and the Gulf are restructuring intelligence arrangements toward greater autonomy as confidence in US reliability erodes.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Russia Scales Parallel Geran Drone Production With Weekly Iteration
Russia has run the licence-built Shahed derivative as a continuously modified platform across two competing production sites since acquiring the design from Iran under a 1.75 billion dollar agreement.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Launches Second Maximum-Pressure Sanctions Campaign Against Iran
Washington has resumed military strikes on Iran while rolling out a sanctions package designed to blockade Iranian exports outright.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Japan Presents FOIP 3.0 Centered on Economic Resilience
Japan's prime minister presented an updated Free and Open Indo-Pacific framework during a visit to Vietnam in early May, built around resilience rather than the connectivity of 2016 or the inclusiveness of 2023.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Russia, North Korea, Iran and China Deepen Transactional Alignment Without Coalition Commitments
Russia and North Korea revived a Cold War alliance treaty in June 2024 promising mutual military aid, and Pyongyang has sent roughly 16,000 troops to help defend Kursk in exchange for possible missile and submarine technology.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Coercive Trade and War Strategy Backfires Across Three Fronts
Three U.S. coercive campaigns have produced counter-leverage rather than compliance. The Iran war, projected to last weeks, is in its sixth month with Hormuz closed, oil prices up
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Washington Declines to Confront China and Russia Over Material Support to Iran
The United States has sanctioned Chinese firms, tankers and refinery intermediaries but has not moved against the banks or the funding architecture that sustain the trade, and Beijing responded by shifting to overland routes through Pakistan and Central Asia and issuing a blocking order penalising compliance with American sanctions.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Houthis and al-Shabaab Enter Operational Alignment
Yemen's Houthi movement and al-Shabaab, the wealthiest of al Qaeda's affiliates, have locked into what is described as a marriage of convenience between two implacable US adversaries.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
USS Abraham Lincoln Port Call in Thailand After Nine-Month Iran Deployment
The carrier USS Abraham Lincoln is scheduled to dock near Pattaya in Chonburi Province with roughly 5,000 sailors and Marines aboard, following a nine-month Middle East deployment under repeated missile and drone attack.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
United Arab Emirates Launches AED1 Billion International Space Cooperation Program
The Emirati government announced an AED1 billion programme for research and development partnerships with foreign institutions and companies, aimed at diversifying sources of knowledge and technology, localising advanced capability, developing national talent and commercialising research.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Houthi and al-Shabaab Weapons-for-Cash Exchange Deepens
Al-Shabaab, the wealthiest al Qaeda affiliate, has been trading cash for Houthi weapons and technical training, while the Houthis gain revenue and a new operational base for attacks against Western targets.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Syria Reopens as Regional Transit Corridor as Traders Route Around Hormuz
Iraqi fuel began moving legally through Syria to Baniyas for the first time since 2003, with more than 2.1 million metric tons shipped between April and late July and the Rabia crossing reopened.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iranian Fuel Shortages Deepen Under U.S. Naval Blockade and Refinery Damage
A continuing U.S. naval blockade of Iran's southern ports has cut the gasoline imports that normally cover just over a tenth of daily consumption, while strikes during the U.S.-Israeli war have reduced refinery output.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Angola Converts Lobito Corridor and Debt Paydown Into Asia-Pacific Trade Position
Angola is repositioning from oil exporter to trade corridor, with the Benguela Railway carrying Congolese and Zambian cobalt and copper to the Atlantic port of Lobito.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Hormuz Supply Disruption Enters Sixth Month, Straining South Asian Energy Security
Curtailed Middle Eastern oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed governments across Asia into emergency energy security measures, with alternatives priced well above the supply they replace.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China Uses Strategic Oil Stockpile to Cut Imports During Iran War
Beijing has drawn on the world's largest oil stockpile to slash imports during the Iran conflict, holding down global prices in the process.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Cyber
AI Attack-Video Revelations Trigger First Crisis of Takaichi's Premiership
Shukan Bunshun reported that people close to Takaichi's camp used AI to mass-produce short videos attacking opponents during the 2025 LDP leadership contest and the 2026 general election, and the resulting backlash became her first serious political challenge.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
Pentagon Expands and Recomposes the Munitions Industrial Base After the Iran War
The FY2027 request and subsequent awards show the Pentagon buying both magazine depth and magazine breadth, pairing legacy precision munitions with a high-low mix that includes the Family of Affordable Mass Missiles and the Drone Dominance Program.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iraqi Sovereignty Contested by Cross-Border Strikes and Iran-Aligned Armed Groups
Iraq under a new prime minister is absorbing attacks launched from and within its territory by Iran-aligned armed groups alongside U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iraqi soil, both of which reopen the question of the state's monopoly on the use of force.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran War Reaches Six-Month Stalemate With Hormuz Navigation Compromised
Six months after the United States and Israel attacked Iran and killed its supreme leader, an operation planned for four to six weeks has become a stalemate.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Saudi Arabia Prepares Renewed War Against Houthis After Maritime Blockade
The Houthis declared a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping in the Red Sea and claimed a ballistic missile strike on a Saudi oil tanker along with attacks on Saudi-backed forces inside Yemen.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iranian Business Continues Openly in Dubai Despite U.S. Economic Pressure Campaign
The U.S. Treasury announced an economic pressure campaign warning that Washington would no longer overlook countries supporting Iran, paired with an announced end to ties.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Thailand Commits to U.S. LNG Purchases Under Tariff Pressure as Domestic Gas Declines
Facing reciprocal tariffs on its exports, Thailand entered a trade framework agreement committing to billions of dollars in annual U.S. LNG and energy purchases.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Interceptor and Strike Munitions Depletion in the Iran War
Sustained expenditure in the war with Iran has drawn down US Patriot, THAAD, Standard Missile, Tomahawk and standoff strike inventories, by open-source estimate as much as half of certain lines.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US Dismantling of USAID Triggers Record Global Aid Retrenchment
The dismantling of USAID at the start of the second Trump administration pulled other leading donors back in step, producing the largest single-year fall in foreign aid ever recorded, with OECD Development Assistance Committee flows down 23.1 percent in 2025.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Iran War Fractures Gulf Cohesion and Erodes U.S. Security Guarantee
Six months of strikes on regional infrastructure and Iranian interdiction in the Strait of Hormuz have split the Gulf over how to respond, with Riyadh buying a defence pact from Pakistan and Turkey while Abu Dhabi deepens the Abraham Accords.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Maximum Economic Pressure on Iran Advances as Energy Buffers Deplete
Washington has pivoted to a blockade and sanctions strategy against Iran on the assumption that markets will keep absorbing disruption, but the buffers that made the first shock survivable are exhausted.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
Burnham Government Faces Narrowed UK Foreign Policy Options
A new British government inherits foreign policy commitments its fiscal and military base cannot sustain, forcing an explicit narrowing of priorities.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Hormuz Closure Forces Pakistani Blackouts and Fertilizer Plant Shutdowns
Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, enforced by mining and an attack on a Qatari tanker in early July, has cut Pakistan off from the Qatari supply that covers nearly 90 percent of its contracted LNG.
Date unknown
Stable
Institutional
Proposal to Consolidate US Economic Statecraft Authority Under State's Economic Undersecretary
The report sets out a three-pillar restructuring of how the State Department organises economic statecraft, consolidating resource control under the undersecretary for economic affairs and rejecting the special-envoy model as self-defeating.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Argument for Regime Type as an Alliance-Network Asset in Great-Power Competition
The piece frames alliance networks as force multipliers whose composition is determined partly by regime type, noting that Russia's support base runs through Belarus, Iran, North Korea and China while NATO fields a broadly democratic bloc.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Vietnam Overtakes China as Largest US Trade Surplus Holder
Vietnam posted a 114 billion dollar goods surplus with the United States over the first half of 2026, displacing Taiwan, Mexico and China at the top of the list.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Weighs Not Rebuilding Northwest Indian Ocean Presence After Iranian Strikes
Following Iranian attacks on US bases in the Gulf, reporting suggests Washington may not reconstitute its military presence in the northwest corner of the Indian Ocean.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Bans Advanced Robotics Imports
The Trump administration announced a comprehensive ban on new imports of advanced robotics devices, requiring US assembly and at least 65 percent US-made content.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Six Months of U.S.-Iran War Redraw Gulf Energy Security Assumptions
Six months of war between the United States and Iran have distributed costs unevenly, with emerging markets in Asia and poor consumers worldwide carrying the heaviest burden while American production and export constraints partially shielded the United States.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Second US Blockade of Iran Extends a Failing Pressure Strategy
After abandoning a first blockade of Iranian ports at 66 days, Trump imposed a second blockade and a broader campaign to cut Iran's remaining trade.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Hormuz Closure and Super El Nino Converge on Global Fertiliser and Food Supply
Two shocks are compounding: Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut gas flows and driven nitrogen fertiliser prices up, and a super El Nino with Pacific temperatures more than two degrees above normal is beginning.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US Policy Freeze Deepens Iran and Afghanistan Isolation
Washington continues to make policy toward Iran through a lens set in 1979 and toward Afghanistan through the humiliation of 2021, sustaining both as isolated pariah states rather than engaging the governments that actually exist.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Air Campaign Against Iran Fails to Achieve Regime Change or Missile Suppression
Nearly six months of American air operations against Iran have not produced regime change, destroyed Iran's long-range strike capability, or altered Iranian nuclear and proxy policy, despite technical dominance and heavily lopsided casualties.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Hormuz Energy Crisis Enters Sixth Month With China Avoiding Demand Controls
The Hormuz disruption has curtailed Middle Eastern oil and gas supply to Asia for six months and raised the cost of alternatives, forcing demand control measures across the region.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Southern African Summit Sets Economic Priorities Without a Geopolitical or Security Strategy
Regional leaders meeting in Durban committed to infrastructure development under South Africa's chairship and to using critical minerals to accelerate industrialisation, while acknowledging an evolving global landscape without specifying what has changed or where the leverage lies.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China's Illicit Financial Infrastructure Underwrites Sanctions Evasion for Iran, Russia and North Korea
Underground banking networks built to evade Chinese capital controls now clear roughly ninety percent of Iran's sanctioned oil exports, convert North Korean stolen cryptocurrency and launder cartel proceeds.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Weapons Stockpiles Depleted by Inconclusive War With Iran
American munitions inventories were drawn down by a war against Iran that ended without a decisive result. Allies who previously worried about Washington's willingness to act now question whether it retains the materiel to enforce
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Hormuz Closures Drive Oil Shock Across Import-Dependent Pacific Island Economies
Repeated closures of the Strait of Hormuz have produced an oil price shock that lands hardest on economies sitting at the end of the world's longest fuel supply lines.
Date unknown
Stable
Legal
Revised Travel Rule Exposes Conflict in G20 Cross-Border Payments Targets
The Financial Action Task Force extended the travel rule to effectively all payments and value transfers and made address and birth-date data mandatory.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan Sign Mecca Joint Defence Agreement
Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan signed a collective defence pact in Mecca committing each signatory to treat an armed attack on one as an attack on all.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US Arms Transfer Bottleneck Constrains Gulf Air Defense Replenishment
Iranian missile and drone barrages on Gulf partners have drawn down advanced interceptor stocks faster than the US Foreign Military Sales process can replace them.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Trump Threatens Sweeping Secondary Economic Campaign Against Iran
The American president vowed a major economic campaign against Iran and against any entity doing business with the regime, using the phrase economic D-Day, as frustration mounts over the failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Emirati Suspension of Iran Transactions Becomes Test of US Pressure Campaign
The Emirates suspended financial and economic transactions with Iran following weeks of American pressure, making Dubai the decisive variable in whether Washington can force Iranian concessions.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US Interceptor and Standoff Missile Inventories Drawn Down by Iran War
American stocks of Patriot and THAAD interceptors, Tomahawks, ATACMS, and precision strike missiles have fallen sharply during the war with Iran, with THAAD reportedly down to a few hundred rounds and Tomahawks below roughly two thousand.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
United States Escalates Economic Pressure on Iran as Hormuz Blockade Holds
Washington is threatening measures it describes as never before seen, with analysts expecting secondary sanctions on Chinese oil buyers and further financial penalties, after the collapse of the June memorandum of understanding and the reimposition of the naval blockade.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iranian Attacks on Hormuz Shipping Mount Without U.S. Retaliation
Iranian forces have continued striking commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz while the United States has withheld military retaliation.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
United States and Saudi Arabia Conclude 123 Civil Nuclear Agreement
Washington and Riyadh reached a 123 agreement governing civil nuclear cooperation, reportedly limiting Saudi procurement to American vendors with only secondary roles for their foreign suppliers.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Washington Recasts Iran War Aims Around Domestic Fuel Prices
In month six of a war planned for six weeks, the vice president named cheap oil and gas for Americans as the first objective and Iran's nuclear programme as the second, with the president publicly reordering them.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Rules-Based Order Decays Into Chokepoint Coercion and Un-Order
Washington has withdrawn support from the order it built while no successor power is willing to underwrite one, leaving fragmentation, contagion and chokepoint weaponisation to define the system.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Houthis Shut Mokha Port and Advance Toward Bab el-Mandeb
Houthi forces escalated attacks along Yemen's Red Sea coast, halting operations at the strategic port of Mokha and pushing closer to the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
Date unknown
Mixed
Sanctions
Hormuz Oil Shock Sorts Latin American Economies by Institutional Durability
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz early in 2026 produced the largest oil supply shock on record and pushed Brent forecasts to 87 dollars, but Latin America did not respond as a bloc.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Strikes Exceed 13,000 Iranian Targets Without Conclusive Outcome
Operation Epic Fury has struck more than 13,000 Iranian military and industrial targets without bringing the conflict to a conclusive end, while Iranian strikes on US bases and Gulf partner infrastructure have made air and missile defense central to the theater.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
June Iran Cease-Fire Framework Collapses as U.S. Reverts to Sanctions and Naval Blockade
The 60-day framework from the June cease-fire has been abandoned without a nuclear deal or a reopened Strait of Hormuz, and the conflict has become a contest of economic endurance.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
U.S. Consulate in Toronto Attacked Twice by Contracted Teenagers Tied to an Iranian Proxy Network
Gunmen fired on the U.S. Consulate in downtown Toronto in March and again in late July, with arrests in early August traced to a guns-for-hire network in one north Toronto housing complex.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Intensifies Economic Pressure Campaign Against Iran
Senior US officials have intensified economic pressure on Iran, elevating lower oil prices to a top war priority and planning new financial sanctions.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Interceptor Stocks Depleted by the Iran War
Since February the Iran war has reportedly drawn down as much as three-fifths of US Patriot interceptor stocks and half of THAAD inventory, with Saudi Arabia's PAC-3 MSE inventory down roughly 86 percent.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Hormuz Energy Crisis Strains South Asian Import Dependence
Six months of curtailed Middle Eastern oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz have raised alternative supply costs across Asia, with South Asia's four major economies among the most exposed because nearly all of their hydrocarbon imports transit the strait.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Air Campaign Against Iran Depletes Missile Stocks at Five-Month Mark
Five months into the war, the United States is running out of the high-technology missile systems its military advantage depends on after assuming Iran could be defeated from the air.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Positions Hormuz Control as a Permanent Condition of Any War Settlement
Iran retains dominance over the Strait of Hormuz regardless of the war's outcome because its coastline runs 167 kilometres along the northern shore.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran's Hormuz Closure Erodes Its Own Coercive Leverage as Supply Diversifies
The closure is imposing real cost, with inventories drawn down and products tight, but the article argues the cost is more endurable than the concessions Tehran wants for reopening. Energy markets adapt in ways nuclear capability does not.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Reciprocal Strikes Threaten Commerce Across the Black Sea Corridor
Both belligerents are now targeting shipping and port infrastructure, which converts a contested sea into a third global chokepoint under pressure alongside the Red Sea and Hormuz.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Gulf Monarchies Revise Economic and Security Models After Iran War
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates built new cities, airlines, and diversified economies on a foundation of energy revenue paired with American security provision.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran War Depletes US Munitions and Constrains Indo-Pacific Options
Six months into Operation Epic Fury, the United States has damaged Iranian military capability significantly but expended much of its precision munitions stockpile and taken substantial damage to regional bases.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Pentagon Assessment Finds 153 Civilians Killed in US Strikes on Yemen
An internal Pentagon assessment transmitted to Congress concluded that three United States strikes on Yemen last year killed 153 civilians and wounded 243.
Date unknown
Stable
Sanctions
Iran Restructures Into a Survival Economy Under US Blockade
Iran is reorganising economic activity to keep functioning under sustained United States sanctions and a naval blockade rather than conceding to them.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Middle Power Coalition Effort Stalls Eight Months After Carney's Davos Call
Eight months after Canada's prime minister called at Davos for middle powers to rebuild the international system, no such bloc has formed.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
US-Iran Negotiations Stall Over Control of the Strait of Hormuz
Washington and Tehran remain deadlocked over terms that would determine whether Iran can toll and monetize the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes on US Regional Bases Shift Host Nation Politics
Iranian retaliation for US strikes has targeted American bases and access facilities in Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, killing several US soldiers and affecting surrounding communities.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Mojtaba Khamenei Overhauls Iranian Security Command
Iran's new supreme leader has replaced the top tier of the national security establishment after February airstrikes by the United States and Israel killed his predecessor and nearly the entire senior leadership team.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Bangladesh Joins Saudi-Led Maritime Defense Coalition
Bangladesh joined a fourteen-member maritime defense coalition led and headquartered by Saudi Arabia, formed after attacks on Saudi-linked shipping and a Houthi naval blockade declared on July 20.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Gulf States Deepen U.S. Security and Technology Ties After Iran War
After the Iran-U.S. ceasefire, Gulf Arab states questioned American reliability but expanded cooperation with Washington in air defense, intelligence sharing and military technology because no alternative supplier exists.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
U.S. Withdrawal of Support Stalls Chagos Treaty With Mauritius
Washington withdrew its support for the treaty returning the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius shortly before attacking Iran, saying it would not relinquish control of the joint base at Diego Garcia.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Demands Exclusion of U.S. Warships to Reopen Hormuz
Iran has told mediators it will bar American warships from the Strait of Hormuz as a condition of any agreement to reopen the waterway to commercial traffic.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Strait of Hormuz Closed to International Shipping
American attacks on Iran have closed the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, killing eighteen American service members and an unknown number of Iranians while costing tens of billions of dollars.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Grand Strategy Breaks From the Post-Cold War Order
Two consecutive administrations moved the United States away from its role as guarantor of the international system, one through export controls, re-shoring and coalition-building, the other through tariffs on dozens of states, military campaigns against Iran, and open hostility toward treaty allies.
Date unknown
Stable
Military
Iran Retains Weapons-Grade Uranium Stockpile Despite Strikes on Nuclear Sites
Five months into the war, Iran retains a stockpile of roughly 970 pounds of uranium enriched to 60 percent held near Isfahan, sufficient for nine or ten weapons after weeks of processing.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Analysts Rank Financial and Supply Chain Chokepoints Above Hormuz
The argument advanced is that physical maritime chokepoints command attention out of proportion to their durable leverage, and that dollar clearing, Chinese critical minerals processing and semiconductor manufacturing are the pressure points states and firms can actually weaponize at scale.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Asian Oil and LNG Sourcing Shifts to US and Russian Supply
Almost 85 percent of Asia's oil imports and roughly 28 percent of its LNG moved through Hormuz before the war. Five months of disrupted transit has pushed Asian buyers toward American and Russian cargoes
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
India Diversifies Crude Basket Through Hormuz Closure
With the Strait of Hormuz closed by the Iran war, India rerouted its crude sourcing fast enough to cover 5 million barrels a day of import demand across June and July without rationing or growth loss.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Europe Absorbs Iran War, Ukraine and Migration Shocks It Does Not Control
European leaders faced a compounding summer of an Iran war most never wanted, a Ukraine conflict unresolved after four years, record heat and wildfires, and an unexplained migration surge from Morocco into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
Illiberal States Shift From Defence to Building an Alternative Order
China, Russia, Iran and North Korea have shifted from defending themselves against liberal pressure to constructing the institutions of an alternative international order.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Munitions Inventories Strained After Five Months of Operation Epic Fury
Five months into Operation Epic Fury, launched in February, the United States has run its most munitions-intensive campaign in decades, consuming thousands of advanced offensive and defensive missiles.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Drone Attack on Egypt's Damietta Port
Egypt's Damietta Port was struck by a drone attack in late July, allegedly directed by Iran, in what would be the first foreign attack on Egyptian territory since 1973.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran-Aligned Network Reconstitutes Despite United States and Israeli Campaign
Five months into the war that began in late February, Iran and its regional partners have reconstituted rather than collapsed.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
ASEAN Ministerial Exposes Erosion of U.S. Standing in Southeast Asia
The United States secretary of state told Southeast Asian ministers in Manila that Washington remains a committed Indo-Pacific partner while the administration simultaneously imposed new tariffs on the Philippines and six other members.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Economy and Security Strategy Concentrate on the AI Race With China
AI investment now drives most United States GDP growth, data center spending accounts for half of business investment, and AI firms make up more than forty percent of equity market value.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Sudan Trades Red Sea Coastal Access for Foreign Weapons Supply
The government seated in Port Sudan since losing Khartoum in 2023 depends on foreign suppliers and has been willing to discuss port access as part of the payment.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
United States Loses Control Over the Wars It Arms
Washington more than tripled annual security assistance from 15 billion dollars in 2010 to 46 billion in 2025, backing partner wars in Yemen, Ukraine and Gaza while supplying the overwhelming share of hardware, intelligence and diplomatic cover.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Saudi and Emirati Coordination Signals Gulf Attempt to Replace U.S. Deterrence
Senior Saudi and Emirati officials released apparently coordinated messages affirming close ties after months of friction, as the region faces simultaneous crises at Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
China's Myanmar Pipeline Hedge Fails Under Rakhine Insurgency and Tanker Slowdown
The crude pipeline running from Kyaukphyu to Yunnan is squeezed by fighting within a few miles of its terminal and by a fall in Persian Gulf tanker traffic.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Authoritarian Cooperation Hardens Into Durable Institutional Architecture
Illiberal states have moved from ad hoc military support to a two-track institutional programme: creating new multilateral bodies and coordinating positions inside existing ones.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran's Kheibar Shekan Missile Complicates U.S. Regional Defenses
Iran's Kheibar Shekan medium-range ballistic missile, with a range of roughly 900 miles, places the entire Middle East and targets beyond it within reach and has become the workhorse of Iranian strikes during the war.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Defense Leadership Faulted for Hormuz Unpreparedness and Drone Lag
The U.S. defense secretary publicly rejected congressional attribution of responsibility for the failure in the Iran war in late July, having earlier called press coverage unpatriotic.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Munitions Depletion in Iran War Exposes Structural Industrial Base Limits
About half the initial inventory of Patriot, THAAD and PrSM and about a third of JASSM, SM-2/3/6 and Tomahawk have been expended, enough remaining for any plausible Iran scenario but not for a subsequent war with China, Russia or North Korea.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Trump Threatens Infrastructure Strikes for Each Iranian Attack on Hormuz Shipping
The U.S. president announced that any Iranian attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz would be answered by destroying one bridge or power plant, including targets in or beside Tehran.
Date unknown
Escalating
Cyber
Cyprus Arrests Suspect Accused of Surveilling RAF Akrotiri for Iran
A dual British and Azerbaijani citizen was arrested in Cyprus on accusations that he conducted hostile surveillance on RAF Akrotiri and shared details with the Revolutionary Guards.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Drone Attack Strikes Ships at Egypt's Damietta Port
A drone attack caused an explosion and fire aboard two ships at Damietta Port on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, one of them a United States gas storage tanker, according to Egyptian authorities.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Emerges Strengthened as the 2026 Ceasefire Fails to Reset the Region
The United States and Israel began a war against Iran in February 2026 intended to break its power or its regime, and ended it with a June ceasefire that left the Islamic Republic in place, its nuclear program unconstrained by concrete obligation, and Revolutionary Guard figures dominant in Tehran.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Gulf States Move to Diversify Security Partners After Iranian Strikes
Iranian strikes on Gulf states during the war with the United States drove their governments toward wider defense industrial and security partnerships beyond Washington, with Pakistan, Turkey, European states and South Korea named as likely suppliers.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Indonesia and Madagascar Establish Joint Commission for Bilateral Cooperation
Madagascar's foreign minister made her first visit to Indonesia, where the two states created a Joint Commission for Bilateral Cooperation, granted mutual visa exemptions for service and diplomatic passports, and agreed to widen trade across the blue economy, agriculture, renewable energy, fisheries and tourism.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Jordanian Figures Sign Open Letter Demanding U.S. Troop Withdrawal
Hundreds of Jordanian political, legal and public figures signed an open letter calling for the withdrawal of the roughly 4,000 American troops based in the kingdom, arguing the presence drags Jordan into a war it is not party to.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Iran Rejects Omani Proposal to Split Control of Strait of Hormuz
Tehran refused an Omani formula that would have divided authority over the Strait of Hormuz on even terms, demanding a larger share of control over the waterway.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Hormuz Conflict Produces No Lasting Renminbi Shift in Energy Trade
Renminbi payment volumes moved with the Hormuz conflict but did not shift structurally. CIPS average daily volume jumped nearly 50 percent from February to a March 2026 record 920.5 billion renminbi
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
P5 Job Trades Shape UN Secretary-General Succession
As secretive Security Council straw polling begins on Guterres's successor, a report based on more than 40 interviews documents that all five permanent members have traded support for senior UN appointments across the organization's history.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Gulf States Reassess US Security Partnership After Iran War
Gulf states are fundamentally reassessing their security strategies after absorbing unprecedented Iranian attacks and finding Washington had not consulted them before launching the Iran campaign or negotiating its ceasefire.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Political
Iran Stages Khamenei Funeral as Ceasefire Unravels
Iran staged funeral ceremonies in Tehran and Mashhad for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed at the onset of the US and Israeli attacks in late February, timing the mourning to coincide with Muharram and folding the war's losses into the Shia narrative of martyrdom.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Houthis End Truce and Blockade Saudi Red Sea Shipping
The Houthis blockaded Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, attacking two Saudi ships and Aramco oil infrastructure, and launched ballistic missiles and drones at southern Saudi Arabia after Saudi-backed Yemeni forces struck the runway at Sana'a airport.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
China Sustains Mideast Oil Imports Through Chokepoint Disruption
Wartime disruption at two Middle Eastern shipping chokepoints has unsettled global energy markets, yet China has continued to secure crude from the region.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Resumes Strikes on Iranian Civilian Infrastructure
With the April 8 ceasefire broken, the United States has again struck Iranian civilian infrastructure including bridges, health facilities, water desalination plants, sewage systems, and residential areas.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Israel's Conflict Management Doctrine Collapses Across Gaza, Lebanon and Iran
The strategy of managing rather than resolving the Palestinian question has produced simultaneous failure across three theatres.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Horn of Africa Conflicts Converge on the Bab el-Mandeb Corridor
Sudan's war is merging with the Ethiopia and Eritrea rivalry as Asmara backs Tigrayan and anti-government forces while the Rapid Support Forces open a Blue Nile front bordering South Sudan's Nuer insurgency.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Indonesia Floats Malacca Transit Fees Then Withdraws Under Regional Pressure
At the height of the Hormuz crisis, Indonesia's finance minister proposed transit fees on ships crossing the Strait of Malacca.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
American Blockade and Sanctions Deepen Iran's Economic Crisis Without Political Concession
Iran's government put war losses at 270 billion dollars while outside estimates range from 50 to 300 billion, with more than fifty military sites damaged and nearly a fifth of the industrial base hit.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Israeli and American War Aims on Iran Diverge as Washington Pursues Agreement
Washington and Jerusalem now want different outcomes from the same war. The United States is pursuing an agreement centred on freeing movement through the Strait of Hormuz
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Ukrainian Drones Strike Russia-Iran Military Supply Vessels in Caspian Sea
Ukrainian drones hit cargo vessels moving military supplies between Russia and Iran across the Caspian, a route that had stayed outside the reach of the war.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran War Breaks American Escalation Dominance at the Strait of Hormuz
Iran's campaign around Hormuz has demonstrated that cheap commercially derived drones and dispersed mobile launchers can outlast concentrated American and Israeli strikes.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Houthis Hold Bab al-Mandeb Interdiction in Reserve After Hormuz Closure
Having joined the war on March 28 with missile strikes on Israel, the Houthis have so far withheld their most consequential instrument, interdiction of commercial shipping at Bab al-Mandeb.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iranian Islands Anchor Revolutionary Guard Control of the Strait of Hormuz
Three Iranian islands underpin Tehran's ability to price and interrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Qeshm, at 580 square miles with an extensive tunnel network and direct submarine access to the Gulf
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
American Post-Cold War Hegemony Assessed as Ended
The author dates the end of American hegemony to within the last two years, closing an era that began in 1989 and began unravelling with the 2003 Iraq invasion.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Employs Kheibar Shekan Missiles in Complex Strikes on U.S. Bases
Iran is using Kheibar Shekan ballistic missiles against United States bases in attacks structured to defeat air defences through varied flight paths rather than volume alone.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US and Iran Escalate While Reaching the Limits of Military Coercion
The United States and Iran continue to escalate militarily while both approach the ceiling of achievable outcomes through force.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran War Stalemate Calcifies as Both Escalation and Withdrawal Prove Unattractive
Five months into the fight for the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway is neither open nor closed and a ceasefire is punctuated by near-daily attacks.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
US and Iran Sustain Simultaneous Strikes and Negotiations Over Hormuz
Iran is striking tankers and launching missiles at Kuwait and Qatar while the United States hits Iranian port facilities, and both continue negotiating throughout. The pattern is method rather than breakdown.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
US Strikes on Iranian Civilian Infrastructure Trigger Gulf Water and Power Retaliation
A mid-July American strike damaged the desalination facility at Bonji in western Jask county, cutting drinking water to roughly 10,000 people across twenty villages during peak summer heat, as part of a wider assault on southern Iranian infrastructure including roads, bridges and railways that also carry food, fuel and medicine.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US Weighs Limited Ground Operations in Iran as Air Campaign Stalls
With airstrikes failing to break Tehran's position and the war now largely a fight for control of the Strait of Hormuz, Washington has deployed additional special operations forces and medics to expand its options while refusing to rule out ground forces.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
War and Economic Collapse Put Iranian Society in Survival Mode
Renewed US bombardment has destroyed highways, bridges, power networks, and a water desalination facility across southern Iran, leaving residents without running water amid 120-degree heat, while the currency plunges and unemployment soars.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Sustains Hormuz Disruption Despite Massed U.S.-Israeli Strikes
Despite US and Israeli strikes destroying thousands of targets across southern Iran, Tehran continues to disperse, hide, and rebuild mobile drone and missile launchers faster than they can be eliminated, keeping the Strait of Hormuz strategically unreliable.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Houthis Declare Blockade on Saudi Oil Shipments and Fire on Red Sea Vessels
The Houthis declared a blockade on Saudi oil shipments and fired on two vessels in the Red Sea, opening a new front in the U.S.-Iran war.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China Cuts Fossil Fuel Imports to Moderate Oil Prices During Hormuz Closure
China has massively reduced fossil fuel imports in the months since the Strait of Hormuz closure, the largest single factor keeping oil prices below the levels analysts expected.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Iran's Hormuz Stranglehold Forces U.S. Toward Settlement on Tehran's Terms
Despite more than 13,000 targets struck, Iran retains thousands of long-range drones and missiles capable of keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed from deep inside its territory, giving its hardline leadership a stranglehold over the world economy.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
CFR Codifies Chokepoint Crisis Doctrine From Active Hormuz Closure
The Council on Foreign Relations published a decision playbook for chokepoint crises, synthesizing the ongoing Hormuz closure with the Red Sea, Black Sea, Tanker War, and Somali piracy cases into four strategic orientations: monitor, contain, compel, restore.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Collapse of Great-Power Restraint Strips Small States of Systemic Protection
Across 2025-2026 the restraints that shielded smaller states have unraveled: Washington has pressured Panama over canal ports, executed a raid removing Venezuela's president, imposed an oil blockade on Cuba, and raised average tariffs from under three percent to 13.7 percent, with Lesotho's denim industry crushed by 50 percent duties.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Japan Reassesses Energy Security After Hormuz Closure Shock
Japan, which produces only 13 percent of its own energy, has navigated the Hormuz closure and the largest oil market disruption in history without crisis, drawing on stockpiles, planning, and a long-standing commitment to maintain domestic refining capacity sufficient for national demand.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Congressional Testimony Details China's Dual-Use Shipbuilding Dominance
CSIS testimony before the House Foreign Affairs East Asia Subcommittee laid out the scale of China's maritime industrial base: from under 5 percent of global shipbuilding output in 2000 to over 53 percent today, with U.S. output effectively zero and a single conglomerate, CSSC, building more tonnage annually than all U.S. yards have produced since World War II.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Renewed U.S. Air Offensive Fails to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
The United States has flown eleven straight days of airstrikes against Iranian infrastructure, ports, and military installations after a brief ceasefire collapsed, aiming to degrade Iran's ability to interdict Hormuz shipping.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
China Builds Food Security Architecture to Cut Import Dependence
China is systematically de-risking its food supply: Brazil displaced the United States as its largest agricultural supplier, Chinese firms are building the Chancay port in Peru and a rail link to Brazil to bypass the Panama Canal, and Beijing now holds over 60 percent of global maize stocks and near half of wheat stocks.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Infrastructure Over Hormuz Ship Attacks
President Trump publicly committed the United States to destroying an Iranian bridge or power plant for every Iranian attack on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
US-Iran June Ceasefire Memorandum Collapses
The memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran in June, meant to halt fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and create a 60-day negotiating window, has fallen apart, with both sides again exchanging missiles and drones and commerce through the strait shut down.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Hormuz Reclosure and Houthi Blockade Strain Depleted Global Oil Buffers
With the US-Iran ceasefire broken, the Strait of Hormuz has been reclosed and the Houthis have imposed a maritime embargo on ships calling at Saudi ports, stressing an oil system whose shock absorbers are largely spent.
Date unknown
Stable
Military
Israel Abstains From Renewed US Bombing Campaign Against Iran
As the US-Iran conflict reignites, Israel is deliberately sitting out the American bombing campaign rather than joining strikes as it did in earlier rounds.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Caspian Sea Decline Drives Littoral Fragmentation
The Caspian's surface has shrunk by more than Sicily's area over three decades and is falling by up to 30 centimeters a year, leaving ports miles from shorelines, sea lanes too shallow for large vessels, and offshore oil and gas platforms increasingly unserviceable.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Strikes on Kuwaiti Water and Energy Plants Expose Gulf Desalination Vulnerability
Several days of airstrikes attributed by Kuwait to Iran have hit water and energy plants, igniting fires and suspending operations at facilities in a country drawing 90 percent of its drinking water from desalination.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
US-Iran Conflict Resumes in Escalation Trap
Conflict between the US and Iran has resumed after the collapse of their memorandum of understanding, with both sides caught in an escalation pattern and oil prices rising.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Collapse of US-Iran MOU Locks In Escalation Cycle
The memorandum of understanding that paused the US-Iran war has collapsed, with each side having read the document as the other's surrender: Washington expected capitulation from overwhelming strength while Tehran believed it won the war and held new Hormuz leverage.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
US-Israel Campaign Against Iran Fails to Achieve War Objectives
Nearly five months into the US-Israeli military campaign, Iran's regime has not collapsed, its military capability continues to generate strikes across multiple theaters including recent attacks on Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, and Jordan, and its negotiating red lines have expanded rather than softened.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
CFR Tracker Documents Chinese Stakes in 145 Overseas Port Projects
The Council on Foreign Relations updated its China Overseas Ports interactive, cataloguing 145 port projects with Chinese equity or operational stakes, of which 132 remain active as of July 2026.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
CSIS Testimony Warns US Homeland Sanctuary Has Ended
Testimony before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence assessed that the US faces a serious and growing homeland threat from an authoritarian axis anchored by China and including Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran Talks Collapse Into Renewed Stalemated War
The mid-June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran has collapsed: negotiations stalled, fighting resumed, U.S. sanctions were reimposed and U.S. warships again blockade Iran, returning the war to the stalemate that preceded the ceasefire.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Gulf States Conclude China Will Not Underwrite Regional Security
The Iran war has crystallized a Gulf-wide reassessment of China: despite $300 billion in annual trade and its role as guarantor of the 2023 Saudi-Iran detente, Beijing declined to use its leverage over Tehran to restrain attacks on Gulf states, vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on protecting Hormuz shipping, and reportedly tolerated Chinese firms aiding Iranian targeting.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Hormuz and Red Sea Disruptions Expose Australia's Indian Ocean Underinvestment
Australian strategic commentary is converging on the view that the Iran war's chokepoint disruptions invalidate the 2026 National Defence Strategy's narrow focus on the northeast Indian Ocean.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Assessed to Have Moved Centrifuges Into Pickaxe Mountain
Israeli intelligence believes Iran relocated thousands of uranium-enrichment centrifuges into deep tunnels inside Pickaxe Mountain in the fall of 2025, according to Israeli and U.S. officials.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Hormuz Toll Dispute Erodes Freedom of Navigation Principle
The U.S.-Iran MOU's language granting Iran a role in defining future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz, followed by Trump's floated and withdrawn 20 percent shipping fee, signals U.S. ambivalence about the freedom-of-navigation principle it enforced for two centuries.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Gulf-Horn Proxy Governance Reshapes Red Sea Order
Analysis of the structural transformation of the Red Sea into a contested arena where Gulf states project influence into the Horn of Africa through ports, military facilities, financial flows, and local partners rather than direct intervention.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Gulf and Global South Recalibrate U.S. Ties After Iran War
CSIS analysis finds the U.S.-Iran war has accelerated partner diversification away from exclusive reliance on Washington.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Iran Surges $6 Billion Oil Export Push During Truce Window
In the weeks after the US lifted its blockade under the mid-June truce, Iran dispatched about 20 tankers carrying roughly 70 million barrels of oil worth some $6 billion toward Asia, with hulls massing off Malaysia's east coast, a familiar transshipment zone for sanctioned crude.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Gulf Shipping Attacks Turn Deadly for Merchant Crews
Attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz have made the past week one of the deadliest for merchant sailors since the US-Iran war began.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Flawed Hormuz Ceasefire Text Collapses Into Renewed US-Iran Conflict
The two-page US-Iran ceasefire agreement signed by Trump and Pezeshkian collapsed after Iran used its vague best-efforts language to assert managerial control over the Strait of Hormuz through a transit-permit authority and approved corridors, enforcing them with force arguably within the text, while the US worked to deny that control and then struck Iranian territory in explicit breach of the agreement's force prohibition.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iran War Disrupts Saudi Arabia's Transformation Drive
A former US ambassador's essay frames the Iran war as a rupture arriving in the middle of Saudi Arabia's decade-long social and economic transformation.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Iran War Accelerates Chinese Strategic Gains Across Three Fronts
The war has advanced three long-held Chinese goals at minimal cost: Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia are seeking balance through dialogue with Iran and deeper China ties, global energy insecurity is driving demand into solar, battery, and EV industries China dominates, and renminbi settlement expanded as Iran conditioned some Hormuz transit on non-dollar payment.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US Weighs Escalation Options as Iran Holds Hormuz Leverage
Five months into the war, Washington's aims remain unresolved between toppling the regime and degrading its military, while Iran's IRGC-dominated leadership treats control of Hormuz as leverage worth more than nuclear weapons.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Iran Signals Diplomatic Opening With Prisoner Release Amid Hormuz War
Tehran released an Iranian American citizen and its chief negotiator hinted at openness to talks, cracking the diplomatic door despite the shattered ceasefire and the battle for the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Latin American Oil Exporters Gain Leverage From Hormuz Disruption
The Iran war's disruption of Hormuz flows has rerouted energy demand toward Latin America's conflict-distant producers, lifting growth projections for Brazil and sustaining booms in Argentina and Guyana.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iran War Fallout Drives Layoffs Across Dubai's Migrant Economy
Months of Iranian missile and drone retaliation against the UAE have depressed Dubai's tourism and aviation economy, triggering layoffs and wage cuts concentrated among the migrant workers who make up roughly 90 percent of the city's population.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Ukraine Deploys Counter-Drone Specialists to Gulf States After Iranian Strikes
After Iranian drones struck oil refineries in Saudi Arabia, LNG facilities in Qatar, and fuel terminals in the UAE and Bahrain, Ukraine moved in spring 2026 to export its battle-tested energy-defense expertise, deploying over two hundred counter-drone specialists to the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Jordan.
Date unknown
Stable
Military
Trump Threatens Strikes on Iran's Pickaxe Mountain Nuclear Complex
President Trump has publicly threatened military strikes on Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried complex under construction near a major Iranian nuclear site, as he escalates rhetoric against Tehran.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Iran Permits Long-Held U.S. Citizen to Leave the Country
Iran allowed an American citizen to go free after preventing her from leaving the country for roughly a year and a half. President Trump called the move a gesture of good will amid the wider confrontation.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Collapses as Hormuz Standoff Hardens
The memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran collapsed in under a month, the ceasefire is broken, and the Strait of Hormuz remains bottled up.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Coercive Credibility Erodes Under Threat-First Doctrine
Trump's second-term record shows a pattern: threats against at least 20 countries, coercive campaigns that failed against Iran, Russia, and trade partners, and brute-force substitutes when coercion stalled, including the January capture of Maduro and strikes on Iranian nuclear sites.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Analysts Warn Drone and AI Warfare Erodes U.S. Military Dominance
Defense analyst Paul Scharre argues that recent wars validate a structural shift in warfare. In Iran, a state weakened by years of strikes, sanctions
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iran War Framed as America's Next Forever War
The New York Times' chief diplomatic correspondent frames the five-month Iran war as following the Iraq and Afghanistan pattern: an open-ended campaign without an achievable definition of victory, entered by a president elected on the promise of avoiding exactly this.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iranian Strikes on Gulf Datacenters Undermine Gulf-US AI Partnership
Iranian drone strikes hit three AWS datacenters, two in the UAE and one in Bahrain, disrupting banking and payments across a region of 50 million and prompting AWS to advise clients to consider migrating workloads out of the Middle East.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iran War Fallout Pushes North Africa Toward Economic Instability
The resumption of US-Iran fighting on July 8 has reimposed the Hormuz supply shock on North African economies that spent their buffers in the first round: Tunisia nearly depleted emergency reserves when oil passed 100 dollars against a 63 dollar budget assumption, and Egypt imposed nighttime blackouts after Israel declared force majeure on gas exports.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
US and Iran Split over Vague Hormuz Clause in Memorandum
The 14-point US-Iran memorandum's fifth clause, in which Iran will make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge for 60 days only, has become the war's interpretive fault line.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Fires on Omani-Route Shipping, Collapsing Hormuz Truce
Iran fired on vessels using the southern route through Omani territorial waters after concluding Washington was establishing it as the new normal to reduce Iranian control over Hormuz, triggering the biggest US bombardment inside Iran in months and Trump's declaration that the ceasefire was over.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Israel Stuck in Strategic Limbo as US-Iran Conflict Cycles
Israel remains sidelined as the US and Iran cycle between negotiations and strikes in the Gulf, its military already engaged in Lebanon and Gaza and unable to plan around the on-again, off-again conflict.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
US Exit Options Narrow in Iran War
A briefing frames the central question of the US-Iran war as Trump's exit strategy and answers that options are shrinking fast, with the plan reduced to wresting control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Israel Sidelined in Uneasy Limbo as US-Iran Hostilities Resume
As the US and Iran resume strikes over Hormuz, Israel remains on the sidelines in strategic limbo: its goals diverge from Washington's, since Trump seeks only to reopen the strait and force Iran back to the table while Israel fears any deal that omits Iranian missiles and proxy support, as June's memorandum did.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Pew Survey Records Deepest Global Disapproval of United States on Record
A 36-country Pew survey finds attitudes toward the United States at their most negative since 2002, with the decline qualitatively different from past cycles: clear majorities now say the US government does not respect its own citizens' freedoms, a reversal from the Bush and first Trump eras when American values retained credibility.
Date unknown
Stable
Political
Iran Muddles Through Succession While Making Hormuz Control Its Core Demand
With the sixty-day MOU dead and the US formally back at war, Iran's regime is navigating an unprecedented internal moment: Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in the war's opening strikes and succeeded by his son Mojtaba, who has yet to appear in public, while hardliners and pragmatists split openly between negotiation and asserting control of the strait by force.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Pivots Selective Strikes to Bahrain and Kuwait to Exploit Gulf Divides
Since the April 8 ceasefire, Iran shifted its Gulf targeting from the UAE, recipient of nearly half the 7,000-plus missiles and drones fired between February and June, to sustained strikes on Bahrain and Kuwait, calibrated to signal resolve without triggering a decisive US response.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Allies and Global South Reassess American Power After US-Iran War
CSIS analysts assess that the US-Iran war has triggered a broad reassessment of American power: favorability has declined even in close allies such as Australia, Japan, and South Korea, though these states still treat US presence as essential to regional stability.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
US Resumes Strikes and Blockade to Control Strait of Hormuz
President Trump ordered a return to strikes and a reimposed blockade in the Strait of Hormuz after the interim peace agreement with Iran, signed only weeks earlier, fell apart.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
Trump Requests Record $1.5 Trillion US Defense Budget for 2027
Trump's 2027 budget request seeks $1.5 trillion for defense, nearly double the 2022 budget, more than the next 18 nations combined, and about 4.6 percent of GDP, the biggest surge since the Korean War.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Iranian Nationalist Surge Blocks Hormuz Deal Implementation
A wave of nationalist sentiment inside Iran is drowning out the diplomats who negotiated the preliminary June deal to wind down the war, with critics attacking the agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a betrayal of Iranian interests.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
U.S. and Iran Probe Coexistence as Interim Agreement Frays
Despite more than 300 recent U.S. strikes and Iranian retaliation against at least five regional states, senior American and Iranian officials have met directly for the first time in nearly a decade and are discussing a military deconfliction hotline, which would be the first such channel since 1979.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Ukrainian Drone Campaign Degrades Russian Army and Oil Industry
Ukraine's expanding drone campaign is inflicting growing damage on Russia's army and its oil industry, undercutting the attrition strategy Moscow has relied on for four years.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Iran Prioritizes Hormuz Control Over US Sanctions Relief
Tehran has signaled that keeping a chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz outranks tens of billions of dollars in sanctions relief among its priorities.
Date unknown
Stable
Political
Iran Holds Khamenei State Funeral in Mashhad as US-Iran Ceasefire Collapses
Iran buried supreme leader Ali Khamenei in Mashhad after a week of official mass mourning, four months after joint US and Israeli strikes killed him at the start of the war.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iranian Vessels Maintain Hormuz Transit Amid Renewed US-Iran Fighting
Renewed fighting between the United States and Iran disrupted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz this week, yet Iranian vessels continued to transit while other commercial traffic snarled.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Gulf States Anchor Multi-Alignment Security Strategy at Ankara NATO Summit
Leaders from Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE attended the NATO Summit in Ankara as Istanbul Cooperation Initiative participants, formalizing a pattern in which Gulf states supplement rather than replace US protection with European, Turkish, Ukrainian, South Korean, and Pakistani capabilities.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Space-Based Surveillance Divide Widens in Indian Ocean Maritime Competition
Analysis of a structural shift in Indian Ocean maritime security toward space-enabled domain awareness. India has built the region's deepest integration, spanning dedicated naval satellites including GSAT-7R launched in November 2025
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
US and Chinese Strategic Postures Converge Around MENA Division of Labor
US and Chinese positions in MENA are converging on a shared interest in trade stability, with a division of labor: Washington supplies the security regime, holding 64.3 percent of 2025 regional arms imports and a dense base network, while Beijing dominates trade at $288 billion with the GCC versus $86 billion for the US, leads BRI infrastructure investment, and enjoys 64.3 percent favorability against 32.8 percent for the US.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Renewed US-Iran Hostilities Strain June 17 Memorandum of Understanding
The June 17 Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, the framework underpinning the post-war truce, is being tested by renewed hostilities.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Phased Restart of Gulf Energy Flows Through Contested Hormuz
The interim U.S.-Iran agreement opened a phased restart of Gulf oil and gas exports after a shut-in of more than 10 million barrels per day of oil and roughly 300 million cubic meters per day of LNG lasting over 100 days.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Beijing Frames Global Disorder as Strategic Opportunity
China's leadership interprets the current turmoil, including uncertain U.S. commitments to allies, U.S. military action in the Middle East and Western Hemisphere, deepening Russia-North Korea ties, and middle-power hedging, as confirmation of Xi Jinping's doctrine of great change unseen in a century.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Munitions Stockpiles Depleted by Iran War Expenditures
U.S. expenditure of long-range munitions and air-defense interceptors during Operation Epic Fury has drawn stockpiles below prewar levels that were already judged insufficient for a peer conflict.
Date unknown
Stable
Legal
Strategic Litigation Project Expands Multi-Theater Atrocity Accountability Campaign
A civil-society legal campaign intensifies external accountability pressure on Iran, Russia, China, and the former Assad government, converting documented atrocities into prospective prosecutions and treaty codification.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Russia Reflags Shadow-Fleet Tankers as Western and Ukrainian Interdiction Intensifies
European navies and Ukraine are intensifying interdiction of Russia's sanctioned shadow fleet, prompting Moscow to reflag vessels under its own flag to defeat the legal handle for boardings.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Turkey Leverages Post-Assad Syria for Eurasian Energy Transit Primacy
Post-Assad Syria's realignment lets Turkey consolidate the overland energy-transit vacuum left by a retreating Russia and a severed Iranian land corridor.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Russia Reflags and Arms Shadow-Fleet Tankers Under Direct State Control
Russia is moving its shadow-fleet tankers onto its own flag under a draft presidential decree, abandoning flags of convenience like Togo and the Cook Islands, while arming some vessels and escorting them with naval ships through the Baltic and English Channel.
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
Hormuz Shock Accelerates Geopolitical Restructuring of Global Energy Trade
The war that began February 28 turned the Strait of Hormuz, carrier of a fifth of world oil and gas, into a gauntlet many vessels would not attempt, and the US-Iran agreement that reopened it has not restored confidence that the route is safe.
Date unknown
Stable
Military
Iran Intensifies Transnational Repression of Dissidents in Europe
Iranian dissidents in the Netherlands, the UK, and France face escalating threats, surveillance, phishing, direct intimidation calls, and coercion through relatives in Iran, a campaign that intensified after the war began in February.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Deep-Sea Mining Emerges as Great-Power Security Domain
Deep-sea mining is shifting from an environmental-economic issue into a maritime-security and great-power competition arena, with Chinese state vessels linked to its navy allegedly gathering military intelligence in strategic waters and a 2025 US executive order directing unilateral seabed exploitation outside the ISA framework.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
East Africa Emerges as Contested Indo-Pacific Node
East Africa's ports, mineral wealth, and Red Sea and Indian Ocean chokepoints are drawing intensifying investment from China, the Gulf states, India, and Russia, with the West still holding major aid and investor positions.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
US Disengagement From European Security Overshadows NATO's Ankara Summit
NATO members arrive at the Ankara summit with the Trump administration visibly reducing its involvement in European security: troop and equipment drawdowns, private warnings that allied orders from US contractors will be delayed while Washington restocks after the Iran war, and public breaks with the British, Italian, and German leaders.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Iran War Strains U.S.-Saudi Security Partnership and Stalls Israel Normalization
The 2026 U.S. war on Iran, launched with minimal Saudi consultation, exposed the limits of Riyadh's upgraded partnership with Washington.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Middle East Fast-Tracks Overland Corridors to Bypass the Strait of Hormuz
Gulf and Levant states are accelerating rail and pipeline corridors and reviving IMEC coordination to reduce dependence on the Hormuz chokepoint after wartime disruption.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Saudi Arabia Prepares GCC-Iran Talks on Region-Led Security Architecture
Riyadh is preparing to host the GCC states and Iran for talks on a regional non-aggression pact, maritime security, and confidence-building measures modeled on the 1975 Helsinki Accords, with regular ministerial and leaders' meetings envisioned.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
UK Foreign Secretary Sets Out Post-American Strategic Doctrine
The UK foreign secretary publishes a doctrinal statement recasting Britain's role for an era of great-power competition and reduced American security guarantees.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Presses Hormuz Leverage as Importers Accelerate Bypass Alternatives
Iran emerged from the war with the United States and Israel with its control over the Strait of Hormuz validated as its prime lever: the ceasefire came on terms widely viewed as favorable to Tehran, it staged new attacks on ships transiting the strait last month, and it is moving with Oman to collect payments from passing vessels.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Analysts Weigh U.S.-China Rivalry Amid Multi-Theater Strain
An ECFR discussion with US-China commission leaders examines how the Iran and Ukraine wars strain the balance between the Indo-Pacific and other theaters, China's support for Russia and Iran, and intensifying competition in AI, biotech, and quantum.
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
Asian States Deepen Arctic Shipping Engagement Ahead of EU LNG Ban
South Korea has committed over 400 million dollars to Arctic maritime infrastructure and plans a Busan-Rotterdam trial container voyage, Japan is updating its Arctic strategy, Singapore has appointed an Arctic ambassador, and Russia is courting India and DP World on Northern Sea Route logistics.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
NATO Ankara Summit Agenda and Turkey's Rising Role
Ahead of the Ankara summit, NATO faces eroded transatlantic trust after Trump's withdrawal threats, demands over Greenland, and the halt of US military aid to Ukraine, with the summit's chief goal reduced to reaffirming Article 5.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Hormuz Crisis Exposes China's Structural Energy Import Dependence
The Strait of Hormuz crisis exposed China's persistent dependence on imported oil, natural gas, and uranium despite its dominance in energy production and renewables manufacturing.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Hormuz Closure Reroutes Vietnam's Energy Supply to South Korea and China
Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut Middle East oil and gas flows to Asia to nearly zero, forcing Vietnam to substitute refined petroleum and LPG imports from South Korea (up 60 percent March-April) and China (which shipped 120 million tons in March despite a public export ban).
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Europe-Gulf Strategic Alignment Amid Eroding U.S. Deterrence
The piece maps an emerging Europe-Gulf strategic bloc catalyzed by the Iran war, U.S. ambivalence on freedom of navigation, and a shattered guarantee of U.S. deterrence.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Brokered Iran and Lebanon Ceasefires Strain Trump-Netanyahu Ties
President Trump forced memoranda of understanding ending hostilities with Iran and, separately, between Israel, the U.S., and Lebanon, over Netanyahu's preference to sustain military pressure on Iran and Hezbollah.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Turkey's Rising Strategic Weight Within NATO Amid US Ambivalence
The analysis frames a structural rebalancing inside NATO in which Turkey's defense-industrial output and geographic position make it the alliance's key gap-filler as European members cool toward Washington and deepen ties with Ankara.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Deepening China-Iran-North Korea-Russia Strategic Alignment
Since 2022 the four principal U.S. adversaries have built dense bilateral cooperation spanning arms supply, joint weapons production, technology transfer, and sanctions circumvention, catalyzed by Russia's war in Ukraine.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Saudi Arabia Blocks U.S. Access for Strait of Hormuz Operation
Saudi Arabia denied U.S. military access required for Project Freedom, an operation to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even as more than 100 U.S. aircraft mobilized across Middle East bases and warships.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Yemen Water Governance Fragmentation and Climate Finance Gap
Yemen's collapse of centralized water governance has devolved control over wells, fuel supplies, and distribution networks to tribal leaders, local councils, and armed actors including Houthi-aligned forces, converting a resource crisis into a source of coercive leverage.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Tehran Factional Split Over Hormuz Stalls U.S.-Iran Peace Talks
A power struggle inside Tehran between moderate civilian leaders and hardline military figures over the Strait of Hormuz is slowing U.S.-Iran peace negotiations and endangering a deal, according to reporting from Doha.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Iran and Oman Advance Strait of Hormuz Transit-Fee Plan
Iran and Oman are moving to collect fees from vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, overturning prewar free passage after the February 28 US-Israeli attack prompted Iran to blockade and then monetize the chokepoint.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
IMEC Reconceived as Multi-Node Corridor Network After Hormuz and Red Sea Disruptions
An Atlantic Council report extends the 2023 IMEC framework into a redundant network adding Oman, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Syria-via-Jordan as alternative nodes, responding to the February 2026 Strait of Hormuz closure, Houthi Red Sea interdiction, and Suez throughput collapse.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Iran Rejects 1968 Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme
Iranian deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi reasserted permanent Iranian control over Strait of Hormuz shipping and rejected the 1968 Iran-Oman Traffic Separation Scheme that the IMO ratified to govern transit.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Iran and U.S. Sign Memorandum of Understanding Ending War
After an April cease-fire and roughly 70 days of Pakistan- and Qatar-brokered indirect talks, Iran and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding ending their war, lifting the blockade and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
China Withholds Gallium Exports Despite Trade Truce
Despite suspending its presumption-of-denial rule, China continues to choke off gallium exports, with U.S. defense-linked customers still denied permits and global prices surging as little Chinese material reaches markets.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
US-Iran Framework Agreement: Lopsided Terms Favor Tehran
A US-Iran interim framework agreement has been made public, with CSIS's Emily Harding assessing that Iran secured the preponderance of concrete upfront benefits — naval blockade termination, immediate oil export waivers, asset release, and $300 billion in reconstruction commitments — while the US received only a 60-day Hormuz transit guarantee and a vague nuclear reaffirmation.
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
Iran Proxy Deterrence Model Structural Shift Post-October 7
The article analyzes a structural transformation in Iran's deterrence strategy following the post-October 7 regional wars.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
US-Iran Islamabad Memorandum Framework Analysis
The Diplomat podcast examines the Islamabad Memorandum — a framework agreement between the US and Iran — characterizing it as bearing the hallmarks of Trump's dealmaking style while being extremely fragile.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
Structural Fracture of the Liberal International Order Under US Hegemonic Decline
The liberal international order — built on US dominance at the postwar apex — has reached a structural inflection point as American hegemony erodes and China rises as a near-peer competitor.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran MOU Sidelines Israel and Establishes Lebanon Deconfliction Mechanism
A U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding terminates military operations on all fronts including Lebanon, lifts all U.S. sanctions on Iran, and creates a Lebanon deconfliction mechanism involving the U.S., Iran, Pakistan, and Qatar, while excluding Israel and deferring Iran's nuclear and missile questions.
Date unknown
Mixed
Sanctions
Cameroon Deregisters Shadow Fleet Vessels Under EU Pressure
Cameroon moved to deregister and sanction vessels linked to Russia's shadow fleet and launched registry reforms in response to EU pressure, after 100 vessels were tied to the fleet since December 2025, placing it among the top three flags alongside Russia and Sierra Leone.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Hormuz Blockage From Iran War Triggers South Korean Refinery Supply Shock
The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off the Persian Gulf crude that supplies about 60 percent of South Korea's imports and delivering the worst supply shock in the Ulsan refinery's history.
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
States Move to Reduce Dependency on SpaceX and Starlink
An interview maps how SpaceX's control of over half of global satellite launches and roughly 70 percent of orbiting satellites via Starlink has turned the firm into critical infrastructure that states depend on for connectivity and warfighting.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Pakistan Seeks to Leverage Iran Mediation for Global Influence
Pakistan's mediation of the U.S.-Iran framework deal, announced first by PM Shehbaz Sharif, positions Islamabad to claim enhanced global influence.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Defends Front-Loaded Sanctions Relief in Iran MOU
The Trump administration's U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding front-loads sanctions relief and pledges hundreds of billions in reconstruction funds, lifting restrictions to let Tehran earn oil revenue while restoring the prewar status quo.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Disaggregation of Hegemony in the Middle East
The analysis traces a structural divergence in which China has become the Middle East's largest trading partner (Arab-world trade rising from ~$36 billion in 2004 to ~$400 billion by 2024) while the United States retains security primacy through installations in at least 19 locations.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding Ends 2026 War
The United States and Iran concluded a memorandum of understanding ending the war that began in February, formalizing a ceasefire that analysts expect to hold.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran MOU Phase 1 Talks Continue Post-War
Following the 12-day war, the U.S. and Iran continue negotiating phase 2 of an MOU, with phase 1 delivering frozen-asset access and oil-export waivers to Iran.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Washington Commits to Rebuilding Middle East Bases After Iran War
After Iran struck at least 20 U.S. military sites across eight countries during Operation Epic Fury, damaging or destroying 228 structures and forcing personnel to relocate, Washington committed to rebuilding bases, hardening defenses, and replacing lost equipment.
Date unknown
Mixed
Other
U.S.-Iran Conflict Deepens Iran's Strategic Dependence on Russia
The unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict has driven an oil-price spike that eased Russia's fiscal pressure and forced Iran, cut off from Gulf ports, into deeper Caspian trade and arms cooperation with Moscow.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
Trump Social-Media Threat Disrupts U.S.-Iran Talks in Switzerland
As fragile U.S.-Iran negotiations opened in Switzerland, President Trump issued a social-media threat to attack Iran unless it stopped funding allied groups, injecting brinkmanship into the talks.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran 14-Point MOU Sets 60-Day Final Deal Window
The United States and Iran agreed to a 14-point memorandum of understanding committing them to negotiate a final deal within a maximum of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
China's Indirect Support to Iran During US-Iran War
During the recent US-Iran war, Chinese companies and entities provided Iran with chipmaking tools, satellite imagery and a spy satellite covering US bases in the Gulf, and missile-propellant material, while Beijing offered only platitude-laden diplomatic backing.
Date unknown
Stable
Alliance
US-Iran Ceasefire Framework Following 12-Day War
A US-Iran peace and ceasefire framework follows recent hostilities, with negotiations in Switzerland focused on Iran's nuclear program, enrichment limits, and the return of UN inspectors.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Assessment of US-Iran War Outcome and Postwar Balance
The essay assesses the US-Iran war (Operation Epic Fury) as a strategic US win that left Iran at its weakest since 1979, with its nuclear program, conventional military, defense industrial base, and leadership severely degraded.
Date unknown
Unclear
Alliance
Legal Status of US-Iran Islamabad MOU Contested
The analysis dissects whether the US-Iran Islamabad MOU is a binding treaty or a nonbinding political text, finding it mixes both markers and was hastily drafted.
Date unknown
Stable
Political
UK Leadership Transition From Starmer to Burnham
Andy Burnham is poised to succeed Keir Starmer as UK prime minister after rivals stood down, inheriting economic stagnation, underfunded services, an unfunded defense-spending pledge, and a rising Reform UK.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
Consolidation of the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea Autocratic Axis
The deepening economic, military, and technological coordination among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea forms a revisionist heartland bloc aimed at rupturing the US-led rimland order.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Strait of Hormuz Closure and Malacca Toll Debate
A three-and-a-half-month crisis from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz showed Iran weaponizing a chokepoint to inflict economic strain and a flashpoint generating missile strikes and shipping losses.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
U.S. War Against Iran
The United States opened direct military operations against Iran, with Trump publicly framing the campaign around regime change and confronting Tehran's leadership.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
US-Iran Truce Deal Signed Amid Unresolved Nuclear and Hormuz Disputes
Following a war that devastated Iran's economy and leadership and disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, the US and Iran signed a truce deal opening talks but deferring core questions on enrichment, stockpiles, Iranian funds, and transit tolls.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
US-Iran Nuclear Talks Open in Switzerland
US and Iranian negotiators opened high-level nuclear talks in Switzerland, with Vance claiming agreement on restoring IAEA inspections while Iran publicly denied making new commitments.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Turkey's Post-Hormuz Economic Vulnerabilities Exposed
A fifteen-week war disrupting the Strait of Hormuz drove energy prices up and exposed Turkey's structural import dependency, forcing the central bank to defend the lira and revise inflation targets upward.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Trump Declares Victory Over Iran After Memorandum of Understanding
The essay examines U.S. President Trump's announcement of a vague, capitulatory memorandum of understanding with Iran
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Negotiations to Permanently End War Begin
The United States and Iran began negotiations in Switzerland to permanently end their war, targeting a comprehensive deal within 60 days that spans sanctions relief, a $300 billion reconstruction fund, the navigability and fee status of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Iran Announces Renewed Closure of Strait of Hormuz
Iran declared it had closed the Strait of Hormuz again, reasserting a coercive claim over a critical maritime chokepoint even as a peace deal promised to keep the passage open.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
Lebanon War Overshadows Renewed Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks in Switzerland
A U.S. delegation led by Vice President Vance arrives in Switzerland for renewed Iran-U.S. nuclear negotiations, but the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon threatens to derail the intended agenda.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
Renewed U.S.-Iran Nuclear Negotiations Over Enrichment and Stockpile
The U.S. and Iran enter a renewed negotiating round seeking to constrain Iran's nuclear program after U.S.-Israeli strikes on its enrichment sites last year.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Talks Resume at Swiss Resort Under Switzerland's Facilitation
U.S. and Iranian officials are set to resume talks at a discreet Swiss mountain resort to implement a recently signed Memorandum of Understanding aimed at ending the Middle East war.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Israel-Hezbollah Fighting Resumes Despite Renewed Ceasefire
Israeli fire hit areas around the southern Lebanese city of Nabatieh on Saturday, just hours after a renewed Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire took effect, demonstrating the truce's immediate fragility.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
U.S. and Qatar Plan to Unfreeze $6 Billion in Iranian Funds
The United States is working with Qatar to make about $6 billion in frozen Iranian funds available for humanitarian spending, an early incentive under a recently signed deal to end the war with Iran.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Israel-Hezbollah Escalation in Southern Lebanon
Hezbollah ambushed Israeli forces near Kfar Tebnit, killing four soldiers and destroying three Merkava tanks in one of the deadliest strikes on Israeli troops since fighting resumed in March.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
Central Asia's Trade-Route Diversification Collapses Amid Regional Wars
Central Asia's effort to reduce dependence on Russia's Northern Corridor has failed as overlapping conflicts shut its alternatives: U.S. strikes and a port blockade closed Iran's Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, Pakistan-Taliban fighting severed the Afghanistan-Pakistan route, and retaliatory Iranian strikes damaged Middle Corridor infrastructure including Nakhichevan's airport.
Date unknown
Mixed
Institutional
U.S. Pressure to Scrap World Bank 45% Climate-Finance Target
With the World Bank's Climate Change Action Plan set to expire on 30 June, the United States as largest shareholder is pushing to scrap or gut the 45 percent climate-finance target and lift the ban on gas-extraction financing in favor of growth and energy security.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Iran Survives U.S.-Israel War Through Asymmetric Pressure
Analysts assess that Iran weathered an existential war against the United States and Israel by exploiting asymmetric leverage rather than conventional parity: closing the Strait of Hormuz, launching thousands of missiles and drones at the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, and spiking oil prices to erode U.S. domestic and allied support.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Regional Economic Fallout of the Iran War
Three months into the Iran war, the Hormuz halt and supply-chain fears pushed Gulf states into protective measures: Kuwait banned essential food exports and Qatar, importing 90 percent of its food, flew in supplies and subsidized prices.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Analysis Warns ASEAN Neutrality Could Collapse in a Malacca Crisis
The analysis reframes the Strait of Malacca's key vulnerability as political and regulatory rather than military: a US-China confrontation over Taiwan or the South China Sea could impose incompatible compliance, inspection, and sanctions demands on ASEAN littoral states.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Iran War Threatens African Food Security via Energy and Fertiliser Disruption
The Iran war compounds Africa's food-security crisis by disrupting crude oil and fertiliser flows through the Strait of Hormuz, raising input costs for a continent whose agriculture depends on fossil-fuel-intensive methods and imported urea.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US-Iran War Ends in Strategic Reversal for Washington
A short US war against Iran ended with core American strategic objectives harmed rather than advanced, despite minimal US casualties.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Trump Attends G7 Summit in Evian-les-Bains Amid Strained Alliance Ties
President Trump joined this year's G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains as allied leaders sought to avoid the clashes that marked his prior appearances over tariffs, climate, and proposals to readmit Russia.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
US-Iran MOU Signals American Retreat From the Middle East
A US-Iran memorandum of understanding ending the war set terms for nuclear negotiations, a 60-day oil-export waiver for Tehran, and a contested reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which the author reads as strategically hollow.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
US and Iran Prepare Framework Agreement to End War and Reopen Hormuz
Washington and Tehran prepare to sign a framework agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the blockade of Iranian ports while leaving unresolved the issues that triggered the war, including Iran's nuclear program.
Date unknown
Escalating
Sanctions
US-Iran Deal Grants Immediate Oil-Sale Waiver to Tehran
Under the deal to end the war, the United States will allow Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel, with the waiver of sanctions on oil sales taking effect at once.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
China Consolidates Dominance in Global South Digital Infrastructure
China has positioned itself as the dominant provider of telecommunications infrastructure across large parts of the Global South through state-directed financing, bundled technology offerings, and sustained engagement, advancing commercial interests, surveillance reach, and technological advantage simultaneously.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump-Modi G-7 Meeting Amid Strained U.S.-India Ties
The anticipated Trump-Modi meeting aims to stabilize a relationship drifting from convergence toward divergence after tariffs, a stalled trade deal, and the Iran war's disruption of India's oil supply.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Deal Scheduled for Signing
A U.S.-Iran deal is scheduled to be signed Friday, with the announcement alone already calming oil markets and lifting equities, though substantive details remain scarce.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Framework Announced
The announced framework ends active fighting between the United States and Iran on terms that fall short of regime change, leaving a hard-line regime in power and core nuclear limits unnegotiated.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
China Shifts Toward Corridor-Hedging Connectivity Strategy
The analysis frames a structural adjustment in how China manages chokepoint exposure across Hormuz and Malacca, distributing risk across non-interchangeable maritime and overland corridors.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Post-War Mine-Clearing Operation to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
Following a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy, joined by Britain and France, prepares mine-clearing operations whose pace will determine when oil shipping resumes.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Preliminary Peace Deal Reopens Strait of Hormuz
The United States and Iran signed a preliminary peace agreement whose terms remained undisclosed, with conflicting U.S. and Iranian characterizations.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Iran Signals Intent to Charge Passage Fees in Strait of Hormuz
Iran indicated it will levy fees on commercial shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz, framing them as charges for services rather than tolls, after the U.S.-Israeli war disrupted the prewar free-passage regime.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Disengagement Reshapes Global Governance Architecture
The piece frames a structural erosion of the U.S.-anchored multilateral order as major powers pursue selective engagement, disengagement, or active dismantling of legacy institutions.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
US-Iran Preliminary Ceasefire Framework Signed, Hormuz Reopening
A preliminary U.S.-Iran framework extends the April ceasefire by 60 days, reopens the Strait of Hormuz toll-free, and lifts the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, restoring the prewar status quo on global oil flows.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
European Leaders Seek to Avoid Confrontation With Trump at G-7 Summit
At the G-7 summit, European leaders shifted from earlier attempts to win favor with President Trump through praise toward simply trying to avoid open conflict, against a backdrop of tensions over Iran.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Framework Reopens Strait of Hormuz
A vague U.S.-Iran framework halted military strikes, lifted the U.S. blockade, and reopened the Strait of Hormuz after a war that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and senior IRGC commanders and degraded Iran's nuclear, missile, and naval capacity.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S. and Iran Present Competing Accounts of War-Ending Deal
The United States and Iran announced an agreement to end their war but have not released its text, and each side is selling a different version of the terms to its domestic audience as a victory.
Date unknown
Mixed
Sanctions
Taiwan Diversifies Energy Imports Toward U.S. LNG Amid Hormuz Shock
Following the Hormuz crisis that disrupted roughly a third of Taiwan's LNG supplies, Taipei is moving to raise the U.S. share of its LNG imports from 10 to 25 percent by 2029.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Central Asia Multi-Alignment Leverage Consolidation
Central Asian states are converting geographic centrality into structural leverage as maritime-trade disruption from the Iran-U.S. war and Russia's estrangement from G7 economies narrow viable logistics options for neighboring powers.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Framework Deal With 60-Day Ceasefire and Hormuz Reopening
The United States and Iran announced a framework deal featuring a 60-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
U.S.-Iran Framework Agreement to End War
Washington and Tehran reached an initial framework, expected to be signed in Geneva, ending a three-month war launched to dismantle Iran's nuclear program and topple its leadership.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Lebanon Cease-Fire Ambiguity in U.S.-Iran Agreement
The initial U.S.-Iran framework's coverage of the Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon remains unresolved, with Iranian and Pakistani officials claiming it includes an end to that fighting while Trump has not confirmed.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Taliban Advances Qosh Tepa Canal Construction on Amu Darya
The Taliban administration is actively constructing the Qosh Tepa Canal, designed to divert up to 15 percent of the Amu Darya's flow to irrigate hundreds of thousands of hectares in northern Afghanistan.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
Trump-Iran Interim Peace Deal and Hormuz Reopening
President Trump announced a 60-day interim peace deal with Iran that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil trade transits.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US Fiscal Withdrawal and Security Council Capture Accelerate UN Structural Decline
The United States under Trump has paid only $160 million of assessed UN regular budget dues, creating a shortfall exceeding $4 billion, while the Security Council endorsed Trump's Board of Peace framework for Gaza — effectively ceding multilateral authority to a US-controlled privatized body.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Collapse of Performative International Law Compliance Among Major Powers
The article diagnoses a structural inflection point in which the United States, Russia, and China have abandoned even the performative pretense of compliance with international law — a shift from strategic hypocrisy to open rejection.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Western Climate Framework Collapse and China's Clean Energy Market Dominance
A structural retreat from target-based climate governance is underway across Western institutions — the EU has abandoned combustion engine bans and weakened emissions targets, major banks are pricing 3-degree warming scenarios as business opportunities, and prominent climate advocates including Bill Gates and Mark Carney have publicly distanced themselves from the urgency framework.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Structural Erosion of U.S.-Israel Special Alliance
The U.S.-Israel alliance has reached a paradoxical inflection point: operationally at its apex with joint military action against Iran, but structurally in terminal decline.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
US-Iran Initial Deal Announcement
President Trump announced an initial deal with Iran, which Iran publicly confirmed — a rare instance of mutual acknowledgment that signals at minimum a shared interest in de-escalation.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Cyber
Iran National Football Team Deployed as Soft Power Instrument at 2026 World Cup
The Iranian government has systematically aligned the 2026 World Cup squad with state symbols and messaging, including a pro-government rally appearance, AI-generated propaganda video, and the 'Minab 168' branding tied to anti-U.S. war narratives.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Dual Strategic Stalemates: Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran Conflicts Reach Simultaneous Impasse
Both the Russia-Ukraine war and the US-Iran conflict have reached simultaneous stalemates, with neither major power achieving its stated objectives.
Date unknown
Mixed
Political
Iran Transitions to IRGC-Dominated Military Junta Post-US-Israeli Campaign
Following a US-Israeli military campaign aimed at regime change and nuclear eradication, Iran has undergone an internal power restructuring — shifting from clerical theocracy toward an IRGC-dominated military junta described as 'Islamic Republic 3.0.' The new leadership cohort is younger and assessed as more risk-tolerant.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Negotiations Near Finalization Ahead of G-7 Summit
The United States and Iran are in the final stages of negotiating a ceasefire deal, with Pakistani mediation playing a central role.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US Amphibious Fleet Readiness Falls Below 3.0 ARG/MEU Deployment Standard
The US Navy has been unable to sustain the required three-ARG/MEU deployment cycle, generating only two deployable ARGs at a time despite a nominal 31-ship amphibious fleet.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Triggers Global Energy Supply Shock
An ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption has removed over one billion barrels of Middle Eastern Gulf oil supply from global markets and shut in the world's largest LNG export facility since March.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Iran War Energy Shock Strains U.S. Agricultural Sector
The U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched in February 2026, has throttled regional energy production and disrupted Strait of Hormuz transit, driving diesel and fertilizer prices to multi-year highs.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum: Dual-Crisis Energy Security Assessment
Energy leaders from Europe, the United States, and the private sector convened at the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum to assess compounding structural disruptions to global energy systems: Russia's sustained targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
US-Iran Conflict Limbo: Blockade, Strikes, and Stalled Negotiations
The United States maintains a naval blockade against Iranian ports while conducting intermittent strikes, with President Trump threatening to seize Kharg Island — Iran's primary oil export hub — before abruptly canceling planned attacks citing negotiation progress.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Partial Hormuz Reopening via Shadow Fleet Tactics Under U.S. Navy Escort
The U.S. Navy has facilitated the transit of approximately 1,000 ships through the Strait of Hormuz over two months by escorting vessels along an unconventional Omani coastal route that bypasses Iran's toll infrastructure on the northern
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Iran Doctrinal Shift: Diplomacy Reframed as Extension of War
Following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a U.S.-Israeli strike on February 28, Iran's leadership has consolidated under Mojtaba Khamenei and the IRGC, producing a doctrinal shift in which diplomacy is treated as a tool of adversary intelligence-gathering rather than conflict resolution.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
ECFR Publishes EU Economic Coercion Response Scenarios
The European Council on Foreign Relations published a scenario-based policy brief mapping EU response options to anticipated US economic coercion across finance, energy, and digital domains.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
East Africa Emerges as Contested Node in Indo-Pacific Supply Chain Competition
Multiple external powers — China, the United States, EU, Gulf states, India, and Russia — are competing for port access, logistics infrastructure, and energy concessions across East Africa's Indian Ocean coastline.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
Taiwan LNG Supply Diversification and Insurance Gap Exposure Amid Hormuz Crisis
The Hormuz crisis has forced Taiwan to rapidly diversify its LNG supply away from Qatar — which provided 33.7 percent of Taiwan's LNG in 2025 — toward U.S. and Australian suppliers, including a new 25-year, 1.2 mtpa agreement with Cheniere Energy.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
US-Israel Strategic Divergence Over Iran War Terms
The US and Israel have developed fundamentally incompatible objectives in the ongoing Iran war across four distinct fissures: whether to continue military pressure, how to handle Hormuz, what nuclear deal terms are acceptable, and whether Israel can act independently against Hezbollah.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Iran Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Triggers Allied Cohesion Crisis
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has produced cascading energy price shocks — fertilizer, oil, and LNG — with acute exposure concentrated in the Persian Gulf, Europe, and Asia.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Conflict Negotiations Stall Past 100-Day Mark
More than 100 days into active U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran, negotiations toward a settlement remain deadlocked on core issues.
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Egypt-Eritrea Maritime Transport Cooperation Agreement Signed
Egypt and Eritrea signed a maritime transport cooperation agreement establishing a new shipping line connecting their respective Red Sea ports, formalized during a high-level Egyptian ministerial delegation visit to Asmara.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Iranian Drone Downs U.S. Apache Helicopter
An Iranian drone downed a U.S. Apache helicopter, marking a significant escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict dynamic. This represents a direct kinetic strike on a U.S. military asset
Date unknown
Escalating
Alliance
Turkey Strategic Realignment Toward NATO and Western Partners
Turkey has undertaken a multi-year structural realignment away from Russia and toward NATO, driven by economic crisis, energy vulnerability, and the operational demonstration of NATO's indispensability during Iranian missile strikes in early 2026.
Date unknown
Mixed
Alliance
NATO Ankara Summit — Alliance Cohesion and Strategic Reorientation
NATO allies are convening in Ankara, Turkey in July 2025 amid compounding stressors: the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran, Tehran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. pressure over Greenland, and divergent threat assessments between Washington and European capitals.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
G-7 Leaders Summit — Evian, France
The G-7 leaders summit in Evian convenes as the first face-to-face assembly of major democratic economies since U.S. military action in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closure.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
Pakistan Operationalizes Six Overland Transit Routes to Iran and Central Asia
Pakistan formally activated six overland trade corridors connecting Karachi, Gwadar, and Port Qasim to Iranian border crossings at Gabd and Taftan, routing through Balochistan.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Apache Helicopter Lost Near Strait of Hormuz
An Apache attack helicopter operated by elite U.S. forces went down near the Strait of Hormuz, with two American soldiers rescued from the water approximately two hours after the incident.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
US-Iran Post-War Nuclear and Strait Negotiations Stall
Negotiations between the United States and Iran to formalize a post-war settlement have stalled on sequencing disputes and domestic political constraints on both sides.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran War Depletes Critical Military Stockpiles and Exposes Strategic Overstretch
A six-week high-intensity U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran beginning in late February 2026 consumed approximately one-third of U.S.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S. Maritime Industrial Capacity Exposed as Structurally Deficient During Iran Conflict
A hypothetical or analytically projected U.S.-Iran conflict (Operation Epic Fury, ceasefire April 8) exposed the structural collapse of American shipbuilding and sealift capacity.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Israeli Military Offensive Against Iran
The United States and Israel launched a military offensive against Iran following domestic protests in which Iranian government forces killed thousands of demonstrators.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran Direct Missile Strike on Israel Following Beirut Airstrike
Iran launched a direct ballistic missile strike against Israel in response to an Israeli airstrike on a Beirut suburb targeting Hezbollah.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil trade transits.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Ukraine Drone-Industrial Escalation and Russian Battlefield Attrition
Ukraine has scaled domestic drone production from 2,000 units pre-invasion to over 4 million in 2025, deploying autonomous AI-controlled systems that have structurally transformed the battlefield into a deep kill zone extending 10+ miles from front lines.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
US-Iran Talks on Strait of Hormuz Access
The United States and Iran are engaged in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global oil supply transits.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Strait of Hormuz Closure — U.S.-Iran War Disrupts Global Oil Flows
A U.S.-Iran war, now in its fourth month, has reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz — historically approximately 20 million barrels per day — to a fraction of prewar volume.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Iran Retaliatory Strike Campaign Against U.S. Access Infrastructure in Gulf States
Iran has fired more than 5,000 missiles and drones at U.S. military installations and critical infrastructure across Gulf states hosting American forces during Operation Epic Fury, targeting bases in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and the UAE.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
BRI Strategic Reorientation Accelerated by Middle East Conflict
The Iran-U.S. conflict has physically damaged or threatened at least 18 Chinese-financed projects across six Middle Eastern countries, with over $6.5 billion in loans at risk.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Strait of Hormuz Negotiations Stall Amid Mutual Mistrust
Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked despite both sides having structural incentives to reach a deal.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran War Exposes American Military Capacity Constraints
A U.S.-led military campaign against Iran, initiated in early 2025, failed to achieve rapid coercive success despite significant strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure and leadership.
Date unknown
Mixed
Sanctions
U.S.-Iran War Triggers Global South Energy Security Pivot
Disruption of Strait of Hormuz shipping following the U.S.-Iran war triggered emergency energy measures across at least 60 governments within the first month, including fuel conservation orders, consumer subsidies, and accelerated renewable procurement.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Operation Epic Fury Domestic Political Fallout — May 2026 Assessment
Three months into the U.S. military campaign against Iran (Operation Epic Fury), a shaky ceasefire is in place with the Strait of Hormuz closed and Iran suspending peace talks.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran and Israel-Lebanon Cease-Fire Consolidation (2025-2026)
A series of at least seven cease-fires since October 2023 have punctuated the regional war ignited by Hamas's attack, including U.S.-Iran pauses in 2025 and 2026 and Israel-Lebanon pauses in 2024 and 2026.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
US Diplomatic Push to Secure Iran's Highly Enriched Uranium Stockpile
The Trump administration is pursuing a diplomatic framework to compel Iran to surrender its highly enriched uranium stockpile — estimated at ~970 lbs enriched to 60% — in exchange for sanctions relief.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump-Netanyahu Strategic Divergence Over Iran War Termination
Approximately three months after the United States and Israel jointly launched military operations against Iran, the two principals have entered open disagreement over war termination conditions.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
US Military Campaign Against Iran (Operation Epic Fury) Produces Brittle Ceasefire
A US military campaign designated 'Operation Epic Fury' struck Iran's deeply buried nuclear facilities and degraded its conventional military, producing a ceasefire now in its fourth month.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Strait of Hormuz Partial Closure and U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Stalemate
A nominal ceasefire between the United States and Iran is in effect following an April 7 announcement, but kinetic activity continues: Iraqi militias aligned with Iran conduct daily drone strikes on UAE infrastructure, Saudi Arabia routinely intercepts drones, and Iranian forces attacked a Fujairah energy facility and fired on U.S. warships during a U.S.-escorted transit operation.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Analytical Framework: Four-Power Great-Power Configuration Assessed
A longform analytical piece argues that the current great-power system comprises exactly four states — the United States, China, Russia, and the United Kingdom — based on a four-criteria framework of resources, reach, reputation, and resilience.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Iran-U.S. Post-Ceasefire Diplomatic Deadlock and Strategic Reorientation
Following a shaky ceasefire in early April 2026, Iran-U.S. negotiations have repeatedly collapsed, with both sides exchanging proposals and then drone and missile strikes.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
South Africa Naval Capacity Gap Assessment Amid Cape Route Resurgence
South Africa's naval posture is structurally misaligned: its diplomatic footprint — multinational exercises with Russia, China, India, Brazil, and Germany — far exceeds its operational capacity, which is constrained to one deployable frigate and one submarine at any given time.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Threatens Oman with Sanctions and Military Action
The Trump administration issued threats of sanctions and military action against Oman following Oman's establishment of a back channel with Iran during the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Strait of Hormuz Closure and Persian Gulf Energy Market Disruption
A U.S.-Iran war beginning in late February 2025 has removed approximately 13 million barrels per day of oil production from global markets and severely constrained transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Iran Direct Military Exchange with Kuwait Strike
The U.S. struck Iranian air-defense radar and drone infrastructure, degrading Iran's ability to monitor and contest airspace.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
UN Liquidity Crisis: US Arrears and China Payment Delays Threaten Institutional Solvency
The UN faces projected insolvency by mid-August 2025, driven by over $4 billion in US arrears and China's strategic withholding of $455 million in assessed dues.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran War and Blockade: Sanctions Relief Negotiations and Hormuz Control
The United States and Iran are reportedly exploring a potential deal to end an ongoing war, with the U.S. offering sanctions relief — including unsanctioning Iranian oil sales and unfreezing up to $120–130 billion in assets held globally — in exchange for a ceasefire.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
US-Iran Framework Agreement Negotiations Near Conclusion
The Trump administration is reportedly approaching a framework agreement with Iran focused on ending active hostilities, potentially reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and committing to future negotiations rather than presenting a fully elaborated deal.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
U.S.-Iran Hormuz Negotiations Emerge After Three Months of Conflict
After three months of unspecified conflict, the United States and Iran are reportedly moving toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy chokepoint.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Syria Positions as Overland Corridor Amid Hormuz Closure
Syria's interim government under Ahmed al-Sharaa has launched a sustained diplomatic and economic campaign to position the country as a primary overland trade and energy corridor linking the Gulf and Central Asia to Europe, capitalizing on the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea insecurity during the ongoing Iran war.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Alliance
Pentagon Reduces U.S. Force Commitments to NATO Operational Plans
The Pentagon has formally communicated to European allies a reduction in forces it would deploy during a NATO crisis or war, including cutting strategic bombers by half, fighter jets by a third, and eliminating submarine commitments.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Hormuz Strait Blockade Disrupts Global Critical Material Supply Chains
Approximately three months into an Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked despite a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, cutting off roughly one-fifth of global LNG and petroleum product flows.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
China Embeds Trade Data Ecosystem in Global Logistics Infrastructure
China's LOGINK, Cainiao, and eWTP platforms have achieved systemic integration into global trade infrastructure through bilateral agreements, WCO-funded workshops, and ISO standards chaired by Alibaba personnel.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Trump Second-Term Madman Theory Assessment: Credibility Erosion and Iran Escalation
Across Trump's second term, a pattern has emerged in which coercive threats against weaker actors (Venezuela, Colombia, Panama) yielded limited concessions, while threats against stronger actors (China, Iran) produced either U.S. backdowns or symmetric escalation.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Fails to Achieve Stated Objectives
A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, conducted over approximately three months, has failed to achieve its stated goals: the Iranian regime did not collapse, did not surrender its nuclear stockpile, and retained intact missile and drone capabilities.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
U.S. Naval Blockade Drives Iranian Economic Crisis Amid Hormuz Negotiations
A U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports has severed oil export revenue, triggered over one million job losses, collapsed the rial to record lows, and driven sharp inflation in basic staples.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Strategic Disengagement from Africa Amid Rising Competitor Presence
The United States is experiencing a structural contraction of its Africa engagement capacity: approximately 35 ambassadorial posts remain unfilled, USAID programming has been cut, and U.S. participation in Ebola response and counterterrorism capacity-building has diminished.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
2026 FIFA World Cup Terrorism Threat Assessment
The 2026 FIFA World Cup — spanning 16 host cities across the United States, Canada, and Mexico over 39 days — presents a structurally diffuse terrorism threat environment with no singular dominant threat actor.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
U.S. Munitions Inventory Assessment at Iran War Ceasefire
Following a ceasefire in a U.S.-Iran war, CSIS analysts assess whether consumption of precision munitions — including Tomahawks and Patriot interceptors — has degraded U.S. military readiness to the point of strategic constraint.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
EU-China Strategic Communication Breakdown and Policy Drift
Europe's China policy has drifted into a reactive, fragmented posture defined by security-driven public rhetoric and ad hoc crisis management, while lacking sustained high-level strategic engagement.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
US-Iran MOU Negotiations Reshape Gulf Security Architecture
An anticipated US-Iran memorandum of understanding, accompanied by a 60-day ceasefire, is prompting Gulf states to recalibrate their security posture in response to a structurally altered threat environment.
Date unknown
Mixed
Diplomatic
GCC Strategic Recalibration Following Iran-U.S.-Israel War
Following a war in which Iran simultaneously engaged the United States and Israel, absorbed strikes on nuclear infrastructure, and still managed to close the Strait of Hormuz and strike GCC civilian and energy infrastructure, Gulf states are recalibrating their strategic posture.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
Trump Pursues Simultaneous Iran End-of-War Deal and Israel-Arab Normalization
President Trump signaled intent to pursue a comprehensive end-of-war agreement with Iran alongside normalized Israel-Middle East relations, expanding U.S. diplomatic objectives beyond nuclear containment alone.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
US-Iran Nuclear Diplomacy Stalls at Agreement Threshold
Secretary of State Rubio publicly confirmed that US-Iran negotiations are ongoing but have not yet produced an agreement, despite earlier signals of imminent resolution.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Structural Erosion of Middle-Power Autonomy Under Intensifying Great-Power Rivalry
The article diagnoses a structural shift in the international system in which the three pillars sustaining middle-power influence — U.S. hegemonic shelter, hyperglobalization, and rapid economic catch-up — are simultaneously degrading.
Date unknown
Unclear
Diplomatic
Gulf-Mediated Iran Nuclear and Hormuz Strait Negotiation Progress
An unnamed senior official reports meaningful but incomplete progress over 48 hours in Gulf-mediated talks aimed at securing unimpeded Hormuz transit and constraining Iran's nuclear weapons program.
Escalating / Global
Trump-Xi Washington summit imminent as China ramps gray-zone pressure and the US-China balance shifts toward Beijing across key domains.
War / Global
The FBI formalizes offensive cyber doctrine with named industry partners as AI-enabled intrusions and stateless actors redefine strategic-scale capability.
Houthi forces hold Mokha port and Perim Island astride Bab al-Mandab.
IRGC Navy administers Hormuz control through the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, charging transit fees and striking non-compliant tankers.
Hossein Taeb-aligned IRGC hard-line faction conducted unauthorized tanker attacks in July that collapsed the US-Iran peace track.
Kataib Hezbollah and Iraqi PMF factions conducted the drone strike that disabled the Saudi East-West pipeline, eliminating the kingdom's primary Hormuz bypass.
Russia's shadow tanker fleet, now exceeding 1,300 vessels under Russian flag protection and state-backed insurance.