War / Asia-Pacific
Myanmar Civil War
Myanmar's junta secured regional legitimacy in Bangkok while the Arakan Army holds 90 percent of Rakhine and ASEAN conditionality collapses.
Thai-Cambodian border
Thailand and Cambodia fought their deadliest border clash in over a decade in July 2025, with skirmishes between the Royal Thai Armed Forces and Royal Cambodian Armed Forces killing at least 17 people and displacing civilians across three Thai provinces.
The fighting traces back to a 1962 International Court of Justice ruling that awarded the Preah Vihear temple to Cambodia, a verdict Thailand never fully accepted. The two countries are not formally allied with rival powers, but Cambodia leans on China while Thailand is a US treaty ally.
ASEAN, built on consensus, has no real tool to force a settlement between two of its own members.
Thailand's construction of a 4.3-metre concrete wall in Chanthaburi province is the most consequential unilateral move since the December ceasefire, physically fixing the contested boundary as a de facto settled line without Cambodian agreement or any demarcation process.
The ceasefire holds in name only: near-daily warning shots, a border explosion injuring four Cambodian soldiers, and Thai jet incursions into Cambodian airspace mean escalation requires no centralized order, only one returned shot.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Thailand's permanent wall is a unilateral fait accompli: physical infrastructure now fixes the contested boundary faster than any negotiation process can move.
Beijing has displaced ASEAN as the effective mediator: Xi's personal assurance to Anutin on tank use and his offer to facilitate talks at the July Shanghai summit confirm that China, not the ASEAN observer team.
Field-level escalation remains decoupled from political decision-making: near-daily warning shots, a border explosion injuring Cambodian soldiers.
No external sponsors. ASEAN attempting mediation. China has relations with Cambodia; US with Thailand (treaty ally).
War / Asia-Pacific
Myanmar's junta secured regional legitimacy in Bangkok while the Arakan Army holds 90 percent of Rakhine and ASEAN conditionality collapses.
War / Asia-Pacific
The Arakan Army governs most of Rakhine while Malaysia strips UNHCR protection and repatriation pledges collapse on contact with reality.
China (PLA arms transfer network): delivering up to 93 T-59D tanks to Cambodia under a joint training and hardware agreement.
ASEAN Observer Team: monitoring the December 2024 ceasefire with mandate extended.
Transnational scam network operators (KK Park and affiliated compounds): embedded in Cambodian border zones.
Vietnam (soft-buffer posture): supporting Hun family rule through treaty ties and infrastructure investment to prevent Phnom Penh from tilting fully toward.