War / Asia-Pacific
Myanmar Civil War
Junta air campaign grinds on as cumulative deaths near 100,000 and resistance holds territory without converting it to strategic advantage.
Thailand and Cambodia fought their deadliest border clash in over a decade in July 2025, with skirmishes between the Royal Thai Armed Forces and Royal Cambodian Armed Forces killing at least 17 people and displacing civilians across three Thai provinces.
The fighting traces back to a 1962 International Court of Justice ruling that awarded the Preah Vihear temple to Cambodia, a verdict Thailand never fully accepted. The two countries are not formally allied with rival powers, but Cambodia leans on China while Thailand is a US treaty ally.
ASEAN, built on consensus, has no real tool to force a settlement between two of its own members.
The ceasefire is holding in name but eroding structurally: Hun Manet used the ASEAN Future Forum in Hanoi to publicly label Thai-held areas occupied territory in front of Thai Deputy PM Anutin, while Cambodia has embedded the May 28 clash into state mythology at the Win-Win Memorial and jailed at least 20 citizens for questioning the war.
It matters because the interstate continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across Asia-Pacific.
Nationalist entrenchment is now self-reinforcing on both sides: Cambodia has jailed at least 20 citizens for questioning the war, embedded the May 28 clash into state mythology.
China is running a dual-penetration posture, arming Cambodia with T-59D tanks while deepening economic and diplomatic ties with Thailand through the land bridge framing and BYD market dominance.
The UNCLOS conciliation process is primarily a coercive instrument for Cambodia: findings are non-binding, but the proceedings internationalize the dispute, apply reputational pressure on Bangkok.
China (PLA arms transfer network): delivering up to 93 T-59D tanks to Cambodia under a joint training agreement.
ASEAN Observer Team: monitoring the December 2024 ceasefire with a mandate extended to July 2025, providing thin multilateral legitimacy to a fragile truce.
Transnational scam network operators (KK Park and affiliated compounds): embedded in Cambodian border zones.
No external sponsors. ASEAN attempting mediation. China has relations with Cambodia; US with Thailand (treaty ally).
War / Asia-Pacific
Junta air campaign grinds on as cumulative deaths near 100,000 and resistance holds territory without converting it to strategic advantage.
War / Asia-Pacific
Myanmar's civil war nears 100,000 dead as the Arakan Army consolidates Rakhine and Bangladesh pivots toward China and Malaysia.