War / Africa
Ethiopian Civil War
Pretoria is dead, Abiy holds a supermajority, and three simultaneous insurgencies now face an Eritrea-Egypt external axis.
Since 2022, a cascade of military coups has overthrown elected governments across a continuous arc of West and Central Africa: Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger, Gabon, and Chad.
The juntas share a playbook. They expel French troops, exit ECOWAS, and invite Russia's Africa Corps, the Wagner successor, to provide regime protection and counterinsurgency muscle. The trigger was the Sahel's jihadist crisis, which discredited a decade of French-backed counterterrorism and left soldiers convinced that civilian governments could not defend the state. In two years, Paris lost its security architecture in Africa and Moscow built one.
The region's democratic experiment of the 1990s is being unwound junta by junta.
The April 2026 JNIM-FLA offensive retook Kidal, Tessalit, and Aguelhok in roughly two weeks, then struck Bamako's airport and killed Mali's defense minister, marking the most consequential insurgent advance in the Sahel in years.
Africa Corps has retreated to Bamako perimeter defense, a credibility collapse that exposes the junta's entire Russian-partnership narrative as hollow.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Africa Corps' retreat to Bamako perimeter defense is a structural credibility collapse: the junta's legitimating narrative rested on Russian partnership delivering territorial control.
The JNIM-FLA strike on Bamako's airport and assassination of Mali's defense minister represent a phase shift from rural insurgency to direct coercive pressure on the capital.
Burkina Faso's diplomatic break with France forecloses near-term Western security re-engagement and deepens the AES bloc's dependency on Russia and Turkey.
France completed a full military withdrawal from Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and Senegal under junta pressure, formally ending Françafrique's military presence while Africa Corps (successor to Wagner) expanded basing and operational roles across the belt.
Niger's presidential guard ousted elected President Mohamed Bazoum in July; Gabon's military removed President Ali Bongo in August, bringing the total of active juntas in the region to eight and triggering ECOWAS threats of military intervention that were never enforced.
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger formally withdrew from ECOWAS and established the Alliance of Sahel States, fracturing the region's primary collective security and sanctions mechanism.
A cascade of military takeovers consolidated: Burkina Faso fell to juntas in January and September, Guinea remained under Mamadi Doumbouya following his 2021 coup, and Guinea-Bissau survived a coup attempt in February.
Mali suffered two coups in nine months, signaling the collapse of France's Françafrique security architecture and opening the door to Russian Wagner Group involvement as an alternative patron.
Jihadist groups JNIM and ISWAP expanded aggressively across the Sahel, exposing catastrophic governance failures in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger and discrediting French-backed counterinsurgency efforts.
International pressure produced a wave of democratic transitions across the region, but most new governments remained dependent on military loyalty and vulnerable to coups.
Decolonization created artificial borders across West and Central Africa, leaving behind French- and British-trained military elites with outsized political power and weak civilian institutions.
Africa Corps (Wagner successor) has retreated from forward combat to Bamako perimeter defense after losing Kidal, Tessalit, and Aguelhok in April 2026.
Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) holds Kidal as a co-belligerent following the April 2026 joint offensive with JNIM.
JNIM operates as the primary insurgent coercive actor across the Sahel, now capable of striking Bamako's airport and assassinating senior junta officials.
ISGS (Islamic State Greater Sahel) is the primary suspect in both 2026 Niamey airport attacks and probed Labbezanga and Menaka during the April offensive.
VDP auxiliaries in Burkina Faso serve as a state-backed irregular force responsible for the majority of documented civilian killings across 11 regions.
PRO-RESTORATION
Jun 29, 2026
De-escalating
Legal
Ghana Sued at ECOWAS Court Over Secret US Deportation Pact
Rights groups filed a landmark ECOWAS Court suit accusing Ghana of unlawfully receiving and re-deporting protected migrants transferred from the US under an undisclosed bilateral deal, allegedly breaching non-refoulement.
Jun 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Escalating Mali Conflict and Civilian Abuses
A Human Rights Watch report documented killings and abuses by JNIM, the Malian army and its Russian Africa Corps partners as violence escalated in 2026.
Jun 27, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Burkina Faso Severs Diplomatic Relations with France
Burkina Faso's military government formally severed diplomatic ties with France, its former colonial ruler, citing French support for subversive networks and interference in sovereignty — charges France denies.
Jun 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Second 2026 Jihadist Attack on Niamey Airport
Gunmen struck Niamey's airport, which hosts most of Niger's military aircraft and drones plus Russian and Italian forces, in the second such attack of 2026.
May 20, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Kyrgyzstan-Led Central Asia-Africa Diplomatic Expansion Amid Sanctions Circumvention Architecture
Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are rapidly expanding diplomatic footprints in Africa in 2026, with Kyrgyzstan receiving African Union observer status and hosting the Togolese president days after the EU's 20th sanctions package deployed its anti-circumvention tool against Bishkek.
May 14, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
AFRICOM Commander Congressional Testimony on Africa Counter-Terrorism Posture FY2027
AFRICOM Commander General Dagvin Anderson testified before both the Senate and House Armed Services Committees in May 2026, publicly documenting a structural intelligence gap in the Sahel caused by basing losses, allied withdrawals, and coup-driven diplomatic ruptures.
Apr 25, 2026
Escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Coordinated Offensive on Kidal, Northern Mali
JNIM and the Tuareg-led Front for the Liberation of Azawad launched coordinated operations around Kidal and other strategic locations in northern Mali beginning April 25, 2026, reportedly contesting or capturing the city.
Apr 25, 2026
Escalating
Military
JNIM Coordinated Attacks and Bamako Blockade — April 2026
JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front launched coordinated strikes on Kati, Mopti, Sévaré, Gao, and Bamako on 25 April 2026, killing Mali's Defence Minister and triggering a blockade of western routes into the capital.
Apr 25, 2026
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Coordinated Offensive Decapitates Mali Junta Leadership and Forces Russian Withdrawal from Kidal
A large-scale coordinated offensive by JNIM and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) struck multiple Malian cities on April 25, killing Defense Minister General Sadio Camara and seriously wounding the head of state security.
Apr 20, 2026
Mixed
Sanctions
Egypt Scales Land Monetization Program via Gulf and Chinese Investment Partnerships
Egypt has institutionalized a land monetization model in which state-owned land is contributed as equity to large-scale development projects financed by Gulf sovereign wealth funds and Chinese state-backed capital, bypassing traditional debt instruments.
Apr 20, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
United States Reengages Sahel Juntas Through Counterterrorism Outreach
US officials are intensifying outreach to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso after prior security cutoffs following military coups, with Congress now probing the administration's revised Africa counterterrorism approach.
Apr 18, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
US Third-Country Deportation Network Expansion Across Africa
The US has constructed a web of secretive bilateral migration agreements with over a dozen African states, coercing acceptance of third-country deportees through threats of tariffs, visa restrictions, and aid withdrawal, while offering mineral access deals and security cooperation as inducements.
Apr 4, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
US Escalates Diplomatic and Aid Pressure on South Africa
The United States under President Trump has intensified pressure on South Africa through public accusations, aid cuts, boycott behavior around South Africa-hosted multilateral events, and reported efforts to isolate Pretoria diplomatically.
Apr 2, 2026
De-escalating
Other
HRW Documents Mass Civilian Killings by Burkina Faso Junta Forces and JNIM
HRW's report quantifies the structural failure of Burkina Faso's junta-led counter-insurgency: state forces and their VDP auxiliaries killed more civilians (1,255) than the jihadist enemy (582) across the same period, inverting the security mandate.
Apr 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
JNIM Forces Recapture Kidal, Tessalit, and Aguelhok from Malian-Russian Forces
Reports emerging in April 2026 indicate that Malian Armed Forces and Russian Africa Corps operatives lost effective control of Kidal, Tessalit, and Aguelhok within approximately two weeks.
Apr 1, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Central Africa Internet Shutdown Pattern — Gabon and Congo-Brazzaville 2025–2026
At least six internet shutdowns were recorded across Central Africa in 2025–2026, with Gabon maintaining a social media block since February 2026 affecting roughly 800,000 users and costing an estimated CFA30 billion monthly.
Mar 25, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Russia's Sahel Security Project Stalls Amid Battlefield Losses and Rival Encroachment
Russia's five-year Sahel expansion — anchored by Wagner/Africa Corps deployments in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger — is entering a phase of strategic retrenchment.
Mar 1, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Russia's African Patronage Credibility Erodes After Failure to Deliver Security and Economic Promises
The piece describes a cumulative erosion of Russia's influence among African partners as Moscow fails to match anti-Western rhetoric with concrete protection, trade expansion, or soft-power delivery.
Mar 1, 2026
Mixed
Diplomatic
France Replaces Ramaphosa with Ruto for 2026 G7 Invitation Under US Pressure
France reportedly withdrew an invitation for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to attend the 2026 G7 summit after US President Donald Trump threatened to boycott if Ramaphosa were present.
Mar 1, 2026
Escalating
Cyber
Africa Politology Sahel Influence Campaign Exposed
Leaked documents from Africa Politology — a Russian influence network originally established by Wagner's Prigozhin and later absorbed by Russian foreign intelligence — detail a coordinated multi-year campaign to entrench Russian influence across the Sahel and adjacent states.
Feb 1, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Repeated Attacks Disrupt China-Backed Niger-Benin Pipeline
Repeated rebel attacks on the CNPC-operated Niger-Benin pipeline, alongside broader insecurity around Niamey, have turned a flagship Chinese investment into a liability.
Jan 1, 2026
De-escalating
Other
Sudan War Exposes Western Diplomatic Capacity Erosion
The article assesses the Sudan war as evidence that Western states lack effective leverage over the SAF and RSF despite mass atrocities and regional spillover risks.
Dec 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Atlantic Council Workshop on US-China Tech Competition in Africa
A private Atlantic Council workshop convened US policymakers, industry leaders, and African stakeholders to assess the structural state of US-China technology competition across African markets.
Nov 27, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Niger Junta Seizes Orano Uranium Stockpile, Faces Export Deadlock
Niger's military junta under General Tiani forcibly transported yellowcake uranium stored at the SOMAÏR site, expelling French operator Orano and claiming sovereign control over the resource.
Nov 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
CCP International Department Prioritizes European Left Outreach
The CCP's International Department publicly stated in November 2025 its intent to enhance exchanges with left-wing parties in Western Europe and Latin America, strengthen theoretical exchange, and consolidate political mutual trust.
Sep 4, 2025
De-escalating
Other
HRW Documents Mass Civilian Killings by Burkina Faso Forces, VDP, and JNIM
Human Rights Watch documented at least 1,837 civilian deaths in Burkina Faso between January 2023 and August 2025 attributed to the army, the VDP auxiliaries, and JNIM.
Aug 4, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
United States Expands Third-Country Deportation Deals
The United States has made third-country deportation agreements a cross-government diplomatic priority, offering financial transfers, sanctions relief, visa flexibility and reputational concessions to states willing to accept migrants who are not their nationals.
Jul 17, 2025
Escalating
Political
Traore Publicly Repudiates Democracy, Consolidates Permanent Authoritarian Rule
Burkina Faso's junta leader Ibrahim Traore explicitly stated that democracy is incompatible with his country's future, eliminating ambiguity about the transitional nature of military rule.
Jul 16, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM Blockade of Bamako and Nationwide Insurgent Offensive
JNIM fighters imposed a partial blockade on Bamako, closing at least three of six major entry routes and stranding civilians, traders, and lorry drivers on key highways.
Jul 12, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Jihadist-Tuareg Offensive Kills Mali Defence Minister; Africa Corps Withdraws from Kidal
A large-scale coordinated offensive by jihadist and Tuareg separatist forces struck multiple locations across Mali, killing Defence Minister Sadio Camara and penetrating to within 20km of Bamako.
Jul 7, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Armed Attack on Military-Escorted Civilian Convoy in Binduri, Northern Ghana
Unidentified assailants attacked a Ghana Armed Forces-escorted convoy of approximately 140 civilians traveling the Bawku-Bolgatanga route, killing three civilians and wounding one.
Jun 22, 2025
Mixed
Military
Azawad Liberation Front Drone Strike on Russian Africa Corps and Malian Forces
On June 22, 2025, the Tuareg Azawad Liberation Front used fiber-optic FPV drones to destroy a convoy of Russian Africa Corps and Malian armed-forces vehicles in northern Mali, demonstrating that a low-resource rebel group could field cutting-edge technology against superior state actors.
Jun 18, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Senate Advances Tanzania Sanctions and Aid Conditionality Legislation
The Senate Foreign Relations Committee is scheduled to mark up the 'Reassessing the United States-Tanzania Bilateral Relationship Act', a bipartisan bill co-sponsored by Senators Shaheen and Cruz.
Jun 13, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
France-Africa Summit 'Africa Forward' Hosted in Nairobi
France and Kenya co-hosted the 'Africa Forward' summit in Nairobi — the first France-Africa summit held outside France or Francophone Africa — attended by approximately 30 heads of state, 1,500 business executives, and international organizations.
Jun 10, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
US Congress Advances Foreign Service Modernization Act and Sudan Sanctions Legislation
The House Foreign Affairs Committee marked up the Foreign Service Modernization Act, targeting the depleted Bureau of African Affairs with expedited hiring authority, critical minerals training mandates, and language preservation requirements.
Jun 5, 2025
Escalating
Legal
Mali Sentences French National for Alleged Destabilisation Plot
Mali's military-led government secured a 20-year prison sentence against a French national accused of involvement in a plot to destabilise the country.
Jun 5, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Tinubu Africa CEO Forum Address on African Industrialisation
Nigerian President Tinubu delivered a high-profile address at the Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, calling for African states to impose value-addition requirements on raw material exports, build regional industrial cooperation, and reduce dependence on Western financial institutions and supply chains.
May 31, 2025
Escalating
Political
Guinea Legislative and Local Elections Close Post-Coup Transition
Guinea holds legislative and local elections on May 31, formally completing the ECOWAS-mandated transition following the 2021 coup.
May 19, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM and FLA Siege of Bamako Drives US Congressional and Diplomatic Reassessment of Sahel Posture
JNIM and the Front de Libération de l'Azawad are laying siege to Mali's capital Bamako, placing the Mali junta's survival under direct military pressure.
May 18, 2025
Escalating
Sanctions
Niger-China Oil Sector Reconciliation and Pipeline Equity Deal
Niger's military regime signed a package of agreements with Chinese oil companies on 18 May 2025, relaunching two $1bn oil projects (Dinga Deep and Abolo-Yogou) targeting a production increase from 110,000 to 145,000 barrels per day by 2029.
May 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Mali Junta Launches Retaliatory Drone Strikes Amid JNIM-FLA Insurgent Advance
Mali's military launched multi-day drone strikes on Kidal — seized by FLA and JNIM in late April — and struck Tene in the central San region, killing at least 10 civilians including children.
May 13, 2025
Stable
Diplomatic
Africa CEO Forum Continental Integration Dialogue, Kigali
Nigerian President Tinubu and Gabonese President Oligui Nguema convened at the Africa CEO Forum in Kigali to address the structural gap between Africa's continental integration ambitions and its fragmented implementation reality.
May 11, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
France-Africa Forward Summit Convenes in Nairobi
France convened the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi — its first such summit in an Anglophone country — with over 30 African heads of state and government, marking a structural reorientation of French Africa policy.
May 11, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
France Africa Forward Summit, Nairobi
France convenes approximately 20 African heads of state and hundreds of business leaders in Nairobi for the Africa Forward summit, marking a structural reorientation of French Africa policy away from francophone Sahel states toward anglophone and southern African partners.
May 9, 2025
De-escalating
Political
EU Strategic Legitimacy Crisis and Pro-European Coalition Erosion
The EU is experiencing a convergence of structural vulnerabilities: security dependence on the US, energy dependence on Russia, and industrial dependence on China have left it exposed and increasingly sidelined in major geopolitical decisions.
May 7, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
Macron Nairobi Africa Summit — Security-Minerals Partnership Pitch
President Macron convened a major Africa summit in Nairobi attended by over 30 heads of state and 4,000 delegates, using the platform to articulate a new French engagement model: demand-driven security assistance in exchange for access to critical minerals and rare earths, explicitly contrasted with Chinese dependency structures.
May 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Sudan Accuses Ethiopia and UAE of Drone Attacks, Recalls Ambassador
Sudan's SAF-led government accused Ethiopia and the UAE of conducting drone strikes on Sudanese territory and recalled its ambassador to Addis Ababa, escalating the proxy dimension of the civil war.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Political
Madagascar Military Junta Announces 2027 Electoral Transition Timeline
Madagascar's military election body announced a constitutional referendum for June 2027 and elections for October 2027, fulfilling the two-year transition timeline agreed with SADC following the October 2024 coup.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Alliance
UAE Exits OPEC and OPEC+
The UAE formally withdrew from OPEC and the OPEC+ framework on May 1, 2025, ending its participation in the multilateral quota coordination mechanism.
Apr 26, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Sahel Accounts for Majority of Global Terrorism Deaths
The Sahel region surpassed 50% of global terrorism-related fatalities in 2024, marking a structural concentration of jihadist violence in a zone where state coercive capacity has collapsed across multiple sovereigns.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Joint Attack in Sikasso Region, Southern Mali
A joint attack by JNIM and the separatist FLA in the village of Kafiguéla in Mali's Sikasso region — on the edge of southern Mali bordering Côte d'Ivoire — killed at least three people, marking a southward extension of the Sahel insurgency toward Ivorian territory.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Coordinated Attacks Across Mali Kill Defense Minister
A coordinated series of attacks by JNIM and the Tuareg-led FLA struck military sites and cities across Mali on April 25, killing Defense Minister Sadio Camara — the central node in Mali's security relationship with Russian forces.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-Tuareg Coordinated Offensive Forces Africa Corps Withdrawal from Kidal
On April 25-26, JNIM and Azawad Liberation Front forces launched the largest coordinated insurgent-separatist offensive in Mali since 2012, killing Defense Minister General Sadio Camara and forcing Russia's Africa Corps to withdraw from Kidal — a city Wagner had captured in November 2023.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-Tuareg Coordinated Assault on Mali Military Government
Simultaneous attacks by JNIM (al-Qaeda-linked) and Tuareg separatist rebels killed Mali's defence minister, seized military bases and towns in the northern Sahara fringe, and declared a total blockade of Bamako.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Coordinated Multi-City Attack on Mali
JNIM and the Tuareg FLA launched simultaneous strikes across Mali on 25-26 April 2025, targeting sites from Kidal in the far north to Kati near Bamako — a 1,500 km operational spread.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Assassination of Mali Defence Minister Sadio Camara by JNIM Car Bomb
JNIM executed a suicide car bomb attack on the Kati residence of Mali Defence Minister Sadio Camara, killing him. Kati is the military garrison town adjacent to Bamako and the symbolic heart of junta power.
Apr 25, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Explosions and Gunfire Near Kati Military Base, Bamako
Two explosions and sustained gunfire were reported near Kati, Mali's principal military base outside Bamako, with soldiers deploying to block surrounding roads.
Apr 22, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM Escalates Fuel Blockade of Bamako — Mass Vehicle Burning
JNIM burned dozens of vehicles — including fuel tankers, minibuses, and trucks — on a highway approximately 45km west of Bamako, escalating its ongoing fuel blockade of Mali's capital.
Apr 20, 2025
Escalating
Military
Russia Recruits African Nationals Under False Pretenses for Ukraine Frontline
Russia is systematically recruiting young African men — primarily from Kenya and other sub-Saharan African countries — through deceptive labor contracts, then coercing them into frontline military service in Ukraine.
Apr 16, 2025
Escalating
Institutional
Burkina Faso Nationalises Sofitex Cotton Company
Burkina Faso's junta formalised full state ownership of Sofitex on 16 April 2025, purchasing the remaining 5.5% private stake for CFA75bn (~$155.5m).
Apr 16, 2025
Escalating
Legal
South Africa Arrests Kemi Seba for Extradition to Benin
South African authorities detained Kemi Seba, who is wanted by Benin on charges tied to support for a failed coup attempt against President Patrice Talon.
Apr 12, 2025
Mixed
Political
Wadagni Elected President of Benin with 94.27% of Vote
Romuald Wadagni won Benin's presidential election with 94.27% of the vote, marking the fifth democratic transfer of power since 1990 and the first under a significantly restructured constitutional framework.
Apr 12, 2025
Escalating
Political
Wadagni Election Opens Niger-Benin Diplomatic Reset Window
Romuald Wadagni's election as Benin's president on 12 April 2025 creates a potential inflection point in the deeply strained Niger-Benin relationship, which has been marked by border closures, diplomatic expulsions, mutual accusations, and pipeline weaponisation since Niger's 2023 coup.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Offensive Seizes Kidal, Besieges Bamako
A coordinated rebel offensive by the JNIM-FLA coalition captured Kidal, killed Mali's defense minister and head of military intelligence, struck the international airport, and imposed a fuel and supply blockade on Bamako.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM-FLA Coalition Attacks Expose Mali Junta and Russian Force Limitations
Coordinated jihadist and separatist forces launched major attacks on Malian territory, including in Kidal, where Russian-backed Malian forces were outmatched despite advance warning.
Apr 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Coordinated Jihadist-Insurgent Attack Routs Mali Junta Forces
In late April 2025, a coordinated multi-city assault by northern ethnic insurgents allied with an al-Qaeda-affiliated group inflicted a severe military defeat on Mali's junta government.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Post-Cold War Order Structural Dissolution
The liberal international order built after 1991 is undergoing structural dissolution across multiple dimensions simultaneously: great power rivalry between the U.S. and China has intensified, Russia's war in Ukraine has fractured European security architecture, a U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran has triggered regional conflagration, and democratic backsliding is accelerating in states previously considered stable.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Institutional
Systemic U.S. Policy Subordination of Africa to Other Regional Priorities
A former Biden NSC senior director documents a structural pattern in which U.S. Africa policy has been repeatedly stripped of resources and decision-making space to satisfy European, Middle Eastern, and Indo-Pacific priorities.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Coordinated Jihadist-Separatist Attacks Strain Mali Security Apparatus
Unprecedented coordinated attacks by jihadist and separatist groups have placed Mali's security apparatus under acute strain, exposing the limits of Bamako's post-French, Wagner-dependent security reconfiguration.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Diplomatic
China Digital Silk Road Deepens Developing-World Engagement Despite Western Pressure
China's Digital Silk Road continues to expand across the developing world as recipient governments — including Ethiopia, Indonesia, and the UAE — deepen technology integration despite sustained Western pressure to disengage.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
JNIM Siege of Bamako and Africa Corps Retreat from Kidal
JNIM forces besieged Bamako, attacked the international airport, killed Mali's defense minister Gen. Sadio Camara in a vehicle-borne IED strike on his home
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Diplomatic
ECFR Africa-Europe Forum Convened in Luanda
The European Council on Foreign Relations convened its annual Africa-Europe Forum in Luanda, Angola, bringing together senior European and African policymakers, diplomats, and industry representatives to assess the future of continental relations.
Sep 17, 2024
De-escalating
Military
Coordinated Multi-City Armed Assault on Mali Security Infrastructure
Armed groups launched simultaneous attacks across at least three Malian cities — Bamako, Gao, and Sevare — targeting the Kati military base, a strategically significant installation outside the capital.
Sep 1, 2024
De-escalating
Cyber
Wagner Information Network Crackdown and Expulsion in Chad
Chadian authorities arrested four Wagner-linked Russian operatives — including Maxim Shugaley and Evgeny Tsarev — along with several local journalists after the operatives attempted to establish influence infrastructure in N'Djamena, including a 'Russian House' cultural center.
Jun 1, 2024
Escalating
Cyber
Russia's Company Network Conducts Paid Disinformation Placement Across West African Media
A Russian influence network ('the Company'), originally founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin and subsequently absorbed by Russia's SVR foreign intelligence service, systematically placed nearly 650 pro-Russian, anti-French, anti-Ukrainian articles across 35 West African media outlets from June to October 2024.
Jan 1, 2024
De-escalating
Military
Tuareg-JNIM Recapture of Kidal from Mali Junta Forces
Tuareg rebel forces (CSP-PSD) and JNIM jihadist fighters jointly recaptured Kidal, the historic northern Malian bastion, from the Malian Armed Forces (FAMa) and their Russian Africa Corps partners.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Air France Closes Bamako Office Amid France-Sahel Rupture
Air France confirmed it will permanently close its Bamako office on 30 June, three years after suspending Mali flights in 2023 as relations with Sahel military regimes deteriorated.
Date unknown
Mixed
Military
Spread of Ukrainian Drone Technology to African Conflicts
Ukrainian drone manufacturing, modification know-how, and instructors are spreading to African states and armed groups, with emulation of first-person-view and fibre-optic tactics appearing in Mali, Sudan, and the DRC.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
U.S. Disengagement Reshapes Global Governance Architecture
The piece frames a structural erosion of the U.S.-anchored multilateral order as major powers pursue selective engagement, disengagement, or active dismantling of legacy institutions.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Forecast Post-Ukraine Arms and Mercenary Surplus Flowing to Africa
The analysis projects that the end of the Ukraine war will release stockpiled weapons, expert drone pilots, and demobilized fighters onto the global illicit market, with Africa absorbing a sizeable share and intensifying conflict there.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Niger Junta Pursues Multi-Vector Diplomatic Realignment
Niger's junta leader Tiani has conducted an official visit to Ankara and received Benin's newly installed president Romuald Wadagni in Niamey, signaling a dual-track effort to deepen ties with alternative patrons while repairing strained regional relationships.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Sanctions
US Peacekeeping Funding Cuts Accelerate African Security Architecture Fragmentation
The United States has accumulated US$1.8 billion in arrears to the UN peacekeeping budget, with a congressional subcommittee proposing a 60% reduction in future contributions.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US Consolidates Sub-Saharan Africa Visa Processing Centers
The US State Department is reducing visa processing hubs in sub-Saharan Africa from approximately 50 to 20, eliminating in-country processing for citizens of 30 African nations.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
U.S. Strategic Disengagement from Africa Amid Rising Competitor Presence
The United States is experiencing a structural contraction of its Africa engagement capacity: approximately 35 ambassadorial posts remain unfilled, USAID programming has been cut, and U.S. participation in Ebola response and counterterrorism capacity-building has diminished.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
AGOA Renewal Debate and Trump Administration Reorientation Toward Conditionality
AGOA expires December 31, 2026, and the Trump administration has signaled a fundamental reorientation of the program away from development-minded preferences toward reciprocal market access demands, stricter eligibility criteria, and national security carve-outs.
War / Africa
Pretoria is dead, Abiy holds a supermajority, and three simultaneous insurgencies now face an Eritrea-Egypt external axis.
War / Africa
RSF masses on El Obeid as the US warns of imminent massacre and the RSF's parallel state consolidates across western.