War / Africa
Ethiopian Civil War
Pretoria is dead, Abiy holds a supermajority, and three simultaneous insurgencies now face an Eritrea-Egypt external axis.
Western Sahara is Africa's last unfinished decolonization.
When Spain abandoned the territory in 1975, Morocco marched 350,000 civilians across the border to claim it, and the Polisario Front, backed by neighboring Algeria, launched a 16-year guerrilla war for an independent Sahrawi state. A 1991 UN ceasefire promised a referendum on self-determination. It has never been held. Morocco administers 80% of the territory behind a 2,700 km sand wall; 170,000 Sahrawi refugees remain in camps in Algeria. The US recognized Moroccan sovereignty in 2020 as part of the Abraham Accords, and France followed in 2024.
The vote keeps not happening.
The MINURSO strategic review, now in active consultation with regional stakeholders after Lacroix's June 2026 Nouakchott visit, is the most consequential near-term process in the file.
It matters because the frozen conflict continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across Africa.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Morocco's C-24 maneuver is a structural legal play, not a procedural request: removing the file from the decolonization committee would eliminate the parallel institutional channel Algeria and Polisario use to frame the.
The MINURSO strategic review, with Mauritanian consultations completed under Lacroix and Security Council examination scheduled for fall 2026, is the next near-term inflection point.
Algeria provides Polisario with Tindouf camp territory, weapons, logistics, and primary diplomatic sponsorship at the UN and African Union.
South Africa offers SADR diplomatic recognition and AU advocacy, but parliamentary scrutiny has confirmed the ARF disbursed zero development funds across 25.
Cuba provides longstanding political solidarity and legacy training support to Polisario.
PRO-MOROCCO
War / Africa
Pretoria is dead, Abiy holds a supermajority, and three simultaneous insurgencies now face an Eritrea-Egypt external axis.
War / Africa
RSF masses on El Obeid as the US warns of imminent massacre and the RSF's parallel state consolidates across western.