War / Africa
Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff
Ethiopia's three-front insurgency deepens as Eritrea coordinates across all armed fronts and the Egypt-Eritrea maritime axis hardens into a formal.
Pro-Government
Pro-Tplf
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
War
Ethiopia
Ethiopia's civil war began in November 2020, when the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked a federal army base in Tigray and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed responded with a full military offensive.
The TPLF had run Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy sidelined them in 2018. Eritrea sent troops to fight its old enemy alongside Ethiopian forces. UAE and Turkish drones broke the battlefield for Addis Ababa in 2022, forcing the TPLF to the table. The Pretoria Agreement ended that war. It did not end the wars. Amhara Fano militias who fought beside the government turned on it in 2023, and the Oromo Liberation Army insurgency in Ethiopia's largest region grinds on.
Africa's second-most populous country is now fighting on three fronts at once.
Ethiopia's National Dialogue Commission opened plenary deliberations in July 2026 with transitional justice on the agenda, but the process is running against a deteriorating security backdrop that makes its conclusions largely academic.
The Pretoria Agreement is functionally dead: federal drone strikes near Sheraro, TPLF reinstatement of pre-war governance including naming Debretsion as regional president, and Obasanjo's emergency return to Mekelle in June mark a ceasefire architecture under terminal stress.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The Pretoria Agreement's ceasefire architecture is functionally collapsed rather than merely stressed: federal drone strikes near Sheraro, TPLF reinstatement of pre-war governance under Debretsion.
Fano's January 2026 unification is a qualitative escalation: the Amhara insurgency now has unified command, controls large rural territories, and has demonstrated reach into Gondar and Lalibela.
The Egypt-Eritrea maritime axis has crossed from signaling into operational infrastructure during Ethiopia's GERD filling season, when hydropolitical, electoral, and conflict cycles overlap.
PRO-GOVERNMENT
PRO-TPLF
War / Africa
Ethiopia's three-front insurgency deepens as Eritrea coordinates across all armed fronts and the Egypt-Eritrea maritime axis hardens into a formal.
War / Africa
Sudan's war regionalizes as basing-for-weapons deals deepen and RSF arms bleed into South Sudan.
Eritrean Defense Forces have shifted from federal partner to active TPLF backer.
Fano Amhara militias unified into a national force in January 2026 and now control large rural areas of Amhara.
Oromo Liberation Army sustains an active insurgency across Oromia, conducting attacks the federal government has failed to suppress or publicly acknowledge.
Egypt functions as the external anchor of the counter-alignment, using its June 2026 maritime cooperation agreement with Eritrea.
Sudan's SAF provides geographic and logistical corridor depth within the Egypt-Eritrea axis, serving as the land bridge connecting Cairo's reach to Asmara.