War / Africa
Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff
Federal drone strikes now reach Mekelle's doorstep as Eritrea coordinates a multi-front squeeze on Addis Ababa.
Pro-Government
Pro-Tplf
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
War
Ethiopia
Ethiopia's civil war began in November 2020, when the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked a federal army base in Tigray and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed responded with a full military offensive.
The TPLF had run Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy sidelined them in 2018. Eritrea sent troops to fight its old enemy alongside Ethiopian forces. UAE and Turkish drones broke the battlefield for Addis Ababa in 2022, forcing the TPLF to the table. The Pretoria Agreement ended that war. It did not end the wars. Amhara Fano militias who fought beside the government turned on it in 2023, and the Oromo Liberation Army insurgency in Ethiopia's largest region grinds on.
Africa's second-most populous country is now fighting on three fronts at once.
Federal drones struck a residential neighbourhood in Mekelle on August 20 and the Dandera training centre on August 18, crossing a geographic threshold not seen since Pretoria by targeting Tigray's political core rather than its contested periphery.
It matters because the war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across Africa.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The Mekelle strikes cross a geographic threshold not seen since Pretoria: targeting Tigray's political core rather than its contested periphery signals Abiy is willing to accept the escalatory risk of a second.
PRO-GOVERNMENT
PRO-TPLF
War / Africa
Federal drone strikes now reach Mekelle's doorstep as Eritrea coordinates a multi-front squeeze on Addis Ababa.
War / Africa
Sudan's army fights on across Khartoum while a chlorine munitions dossier and a US embargo push reshape the conflict's accountability.
Eritrean Defense Forces have realigned from federal partner to active TPLF backer.
UAE supplies Bayraktar drones and embedded personnel that anchor the federal air campaign across Amhara and Tigray.
Turkey provides drone systems and sustains an integrated commercial-military presence that deepens federal air reach and gives Ankara durable leverage.
Fano Amhara National Movement unified disparate militia factions into a single national command in January 2026.
Oromo Liberation Army sustains an active multi-district insurgency across Oromia, forcing the federal centre to fight on a third simultaneous front.