War / Africa
Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff
Ethiopia's Pretoria ceasefire is collapsing as federal drone strikes, TPLF governance restoration, and Eritrea-Egypt proxy coordination converge.
Pro-Government
Pro-Tplf
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
War
Ethiopia's civil war began in November 2020, when the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked a federal army base in Tigray and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed responded with a full military offensive.
The TPLF had run Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy sidelined them in 2018. Eritrea sent troops to fight its old enemy alongside Ethiopian forces. UAE and Turkish drones broke the battlefield for Addis Ababa in 2022, forcing the TPLF to the table. The Pretoria Agreement ended that war. It did not end the wars. Amhara Fano militias who fought beside the government turned on it in 2023, and the Oromo Liberation Army insurgency in Ethiopia's largest region grinds on.
Africa's second-most populous country is now fighting on three fronts at once.
Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party locked in a supermajority in Ethiopia's June 2026 election, closing every legitimate opposition pathway and accelerating radicalization across three simultaneous fronts.
The Pretoria Agreement is structurally dead: the TPLF declared it void in April 2025, installed Debretsion Gebremichael as Tigray's regional president in May, and federal drone strikes near Sheraro confirmed the ceasefire's collapse.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The alliance inversion is the defining structural development of this phase: Eritrea, which deployed troops against the TPLF in 2020-2022, now coordinates the TPLF, Fano, and OLA simultaneously.
Abiy's June 2026 supermajority removes the last institutional pressure valve for negotiated compromise.
Western Tigray remains the highest-probability near-term flashpoint: TPLF leaders have publicly stated intent to reassert territorial control there.
Eritrean Defense Forces have inverted their 2020-2022 role and now coordinate operationally across the TPLF, Fano, and OLA simultaneously.
Fano Amhara militias operate as a semi-autonomous armed actor whose territorial ambitions in western Tigray place them in tactical alignment with the TPLF.
Oromo Liberation Army sustains an active insurgency in Oromia that functions as a permanent third front.
Egypt serves as an emerging external sponsor whose June 2026 maritime cooperation agreement with Eritrea, concurrent port upgrades at Asab and Doraleh.
Sudan's SAF provides geographic and logistical corridor depth within the Egypt-Eritrea axis.
PRO-GOVERNMENT
PRO-TPLF
War / Africa
Ethiopia's Pretoria ceasefire is collapsing as federal drone strikes, TPLF governance restoration, and Eritrea-Egypt proxy coordination converge.
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