Escalating / Eurasia / 2022–present
Russia-Ukraine War
Trump-brokered ceasefire collapsed on day two as Russia pressed Donetsk offensives and Ukraine struck deep into Russian strategic depth.
Pro-Government
Pro-Tplf
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
Other Linked Actors
The sharpest recent move is institutional: Ethiopia's February 2026 removal of five Tigrayan electoral constituencies from regional oversight and redirection of federal elections to occupied territories converts wartime military gains into durable administrative control without formally breaching the Pretoria framework.
The conflict is now in a coercive consolidation phase where Addis Ababa rewrites sovereignty through law and administration rather than battlefield operations.
Escalation Trace
Analysis
Federal coercive power is now exercised primarily through electoral law, constituency management, and territorial administration rather than military force.
Tigray's industrial GDP collapse to below 2-3 percent of pre-war levels eliminates the material base for any political or military reconstitution of TPLF leverage, locking in asymmetry regardless of political outcomes.
TPLF factional fragmentation between Debretsion-aligned hardliners and federally accommodating factions is the single most important near-term variable.
Prospective Ethiopian financial liberalization threatens the state-directed capital allocation model that underpinned federal developmental strategy.
Historical Context
The TPLF-led EPRDF coalition ousted the Derg regime and took power, with the TPLF dominating Ethiopian federal politics for nearly three decades.
Abiy Ahmed became Prime Minister, restructured the ruling coalition into the Prosperity Party, and sidelined the TPLF, which retreated to Tigray and refused to join.
On November 4, the TPLF attacked the Ethiopian National Defense Force's Northern Command base in Tigray, prompting Abiy to launch a federal military offensive backed by Eritrean forces.
After federal forces briefly captured Tigray's capital Mekelle in late 2020, TPLF counteroffensives recaptured it by June 2021 and pushed south, advancing to within roughly 200km of Addis Ababa before being repelled.
Eritrean and federal forces conducted a major offensive in late 2022, reversing TPLF territorial gains; the Pretoria Peace Agreement was signed on November 2, formally ending major hostilities and requiring TPLF disarmament.
Amhara Fano militias, which had fought alongside federal forces against the TPLF, turned against the federal government in a separate insurgency after Abiy moved to dissolve regional special forces.
The Oromo Liberation Army continued a parallel low-level insurgency in Oromia, leaving Ethiopia simultaneously managing multiple active armed conflicts despite the Tigray ceasefire.
Proxy Network
Eritrean Defense Forces served as Ethiopia's external enforcer against the TPLF during the war and retain a residual deterrent presence along the northern.
UAE drone transfers gave the federal side a decisive battlefield edge in 2022 and established a precedent for Gulf-state military technology enabling.
Turkey has deepened commercial and diplomatic infrastructure across sub-Saharan Africa.
Somali clan militias operate as localized auxiliary actors on the conflict's southern periphery, extending federal coercive reach into OLA-contested areas.
Battle Deaths
Theater
We're stabilizing the geo layer and will bring this view back once the theater experience is reliable again.
Focus Region
Africa
Geo-Linked Events
8
PRO-GOVERNMENT
PRO-TPLF
TPLF Installs Debretsion as Tigray President, Declares Pretoria Agreement Void
The TPLF Central Committee declared the Pretoria Agreement dead on 19 April 2025, then convened a party-dominated council to elect Debretsion Gebremichael as Tigray's regional president on 5 May, directly contravening the peace accord's administrative framework.
China Digital Silk Road Deepens Developing-World Engagement Despite Western Pressure
China's Digital Silk Road continues to expand across the developing world as recipient governments — including Ethiopia, Indonesia, and the UAE — deepen technology integration despite sustained Western pressure to disengage.
Hormuz Shipping Disruption Transmits Fuel and Fertilizer Price Shocks to Horn of Africa
Commercial shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, attributed to the Iran War, have generated cascading fuel and fertilizer price shocks reaching the Horn of Africa.
Burma Drafts Federal Constitutional Framework for Ethiopia-Eritrea at UN
Burma's delegation to the UN Commission for Eritrea (1949–1950) produced detailed constitutional recommendations for a federation between Ethiopia and Eritrea, including a bicameral legislature with proportional and equal-representation chambers and a federal-national power-sharing arrangement.
Turkey Consolidates Middle-Power Commercial Position in Sub-Saharan African Electric Sector
Turkey has signed twenty energy and mining partnership agreements with African states as of October 2025, backed by over $100 billion in completed EPC contracts since 2003 and nearly 20 percent of the international EPC market in Africa.
Prospective Ethiopian Financial Liberalisation Threatens State-Led Industrial Strategy
The article assesses signals that Ethiopia may be opening its financial system and loosening industrial policy before domestic manufacturing has matured.
Ethiopia Removes Tigrayan Electoral Control Over Occupied Territories
Ethiopia's federal authorities removed five electoral constituencies from Tigrayan oversight and directed federal elections to proceed there while postponing regional elections until territorial claims are resolved.
Tigray Post-Pretoria Economic Collapse and Political Fragmentation
Three years after the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement ended the Tigray war, the region's industrial base remains effectively inoperative, with pre-war industrial GDP contribution estimated to have collapsed from 26.3% to below 2-3%.
Continue With
All conflictsEscalating / Eurasia / 2022–present
Trump-brokered ceasefire collapsed on day two as Russia pressed Donetsk offensives and Ukraine struck deep into Russian strategic depth.
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2022
163,219deaths