War / Africa
Lake Chad Basin Insurgency
Nigeria's operational gains displace rather than degrade insurgents as Cameroon's succession vacuum and cross-border adaptation deepen structural risk.
Nigeria
Nigeria is fighting four wars at once.
In the northeast, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and the remnants of Boko Haram run a jihadist insurgency that began in 2009, when security forces killed Boko Haram's founder in custody and his successor relaunched the movement as an armed campaign. In the northwest, bandit militias raid villages and run mass kidnappings. Across the Middle Belt, Fulani herders and farming communities kill each other over land. In the Niger Delta, militants sabotage oil infrastructure.
The Nigerian Armed Forces face all four fronts with a single, overstretched military, and the country's collapse would destabilize a region of 230 million people already pressed by Sahel jihadism to the north.
Nigeria's multi-front war continues at an unchanged tempo despite a concentrated run of tactical successes and the country's most ambitious military buildup in a generation.
The Kainji rescue of 308 hostages and a joint US-Nigerian strike killing the Islamic State's global second-in-command are the most significant counter-insurgency gains in years, yet twenty-seven deaths a day and 1,100 abductions in four months confirm the violence curve has not moved.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
ISWAP's pre-emptive redeployment to Nasarawa and the Mali-Niger border before the Borno strike reveals an adversary intelligence-sharing capacity that Nigerian and US collection cannot yet match.
The simultaneous collapse of G5 Sahel, ECOWAS regional coordination, and USAID programming has eliminated almost every formal channel through which cross-theater intelligence, funding, and logistics once flowed.
The federal grazing reserve plan faces the same jurisdictional constraint that killed the 2019 Ruga scheme: state governors control land, so Abuja can persuade but not compel.
Simultaneously, bandit militias terrorize northwest Nigeria and Fulani-farmer violence escalates across the Middle Belt, killing thousands annually and displacing millions, stretching Nigerian security forces across multiple unconnected fronts.
Shekau dies during a confrontation with ISWAP forces; most remaining Boko Haram fighters are absorbed into ISWAP, consolidating jihadist command across the northeast while the Nigerian military suffers repeated ambushes with heavy casualties.
A faction splits from Boko Haram to form ISWAP, formally affiliating with Islamic State; ISWAP adopts a strategy of targeted military attacks and limited civilian governance, making it more resilient and eventually dominant in the Lake Chad basin.
A Multinational Joint Task Force of Nigerian, Chadian, Nigerien, and Cameroonian troops pushes Boko Haram out of most held territory, but the group shifts to suicide bombings and guerrilla raids killing thousands annually.
Boko Haram kidnaps 276 schoolgirls from Chibok, sparking the global #BringBackOurGirls campaign; the group also seizes territory across Borno State, briefly declaring a caliphate in Gwoza.
Nigerian security forces crush a Boko Haram uprising in Maiduguri, killing founder Mohammed Yusuf in custody; his successor Abubakar Shekau relaunches the group as a full armed insurgency targeting police, military, and civilians.
Mohammed Yusuf founds Boko Haram in Maiduguri, preaching that Western education and secular governance are forbidden under Islam, drawing thousands of followers across Nigeria's impoverished northeast.
LIMITED EXTERNAL
US (intelligence, training), UK (advisory).
Boko Haram/ISWAP
No major state sponsor but ISWAP receives IS guidance. Niger (now hostile) and Chad historically allowed cross-border operations.
Aug 13, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
American Missionary Released After Nine Months in Sahel Captivity
An American missionary pilot kidnapped in Niger in October was released after more than nine months and placed in the care of American officials.
Aug 12, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
Gulf Development Financing Deepens Ties With West and Central African States
The Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa received Côte d'Ivoire's foreign minister in Riyadh to widen cooperation across infrastructure, transport, energy, water and agriculture, one stop in a sustained courtship of African governments that has also run through Abidjan, Brazzaville and Abuja.
Aug 11, 2026
De-escalating
Institutional
Nigeria Unveils National Grazing Reserve and Ranching Settlement Plan
Abuja announced a plan to create grazing reserves and ranching settlements across every state and the Federal Capital Territory to end the open grazing at the centre of Middle Belt killings.
Aug 4, 2026
Escalating
Institutional
Nigeria Raises Military Salaries by Up to 80 Percent
Nigeria announced pay rises of 30 percent for officers above colonel, 50 percent from colonel to warrant officer, and 80 percent from private to staff sergeant, covering about 250,000 personnel from September.
Jul 29, 2026
De-escalating
Other
U.S. State Department Presents Error-Filled AI-Generated Africa Map at AIDS Conference
At a pre-conference session in Rio de Janeiro on American relations with African governments, a senior State Department health official displayed a map misplacing Nigeria, Mozambique, and Ivory Coast, drawing wrong borders for Uganda and Malawi, and omitting Cameroon while citing it in the legend.
Jul 24, 2026
Escalating
Legal
US Congress Conditions Nigeria Security Assistance and Expands Morocco Defence Ties
The House passed a 1.15 trillion dollar defence authorisation whose accompanying report requires the defence department to report a strategy on violence in Nigeria, after passing a 2027 foreign aid bill that restricts all security assistance to Abuja pending progress in protecting Christians.
Jun 18, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Second 2026 Jihadist Attack on Niamey Airport
Gunmen struck Niamey's airport, which hosts most of Niger's military aircraft and drones plus Russian and Italian forces, in the second such attack of 2026.
Jun 15, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Global Surge in Attacks on Education in Conflict Zones
Attacks on education rose 40% over 2024-2025, with military occupation of schools nearly doubling and the highest casualties in Myanmar, Nigeria, Yemen, Cameroon, Palestine, and Ukraine.
Jun 1, 2026
Escalating
Alliance
West African States Launch Combined Maritime Task Force for Gulf of Guinea
Nigeria, Cote d'Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, and Sierra Leone launched the Combined Maritime Task Force, the first combined naval unit created and led by African states rather than foreign navies, inaugurated by President Tinubu at the Nigerian navy's 70th anniversary.
May 28, 2026
De-escalating
Military
IS-Sahel Claims First Attacks in Northwestern Nigeria
Islamic State Sahel Province claimed its first attacks in northwestern Nigeria, saying its fighters ambushed Nigerian Army patrols in Sokoto and Kebbi states and killed eighteen soldiers and one police officer.
May 16, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Joint US-Nigeria Strike Kills ISWAP Commander Al-Minuki, Triggering Succession Crisis
A joint US-Nigeria special forces and airstrike operation killed ISWAP's most senior first-generation commander, Abu Bilal Al-Minuki, between midnight and 4 a.m. on May 16, 2026, in the Lake Chad Basin.
May 15, 2026
De-escalating
Military
U.S.-Nigeria Joint Operation Kills ISWAP Senior Commander al-Minuki
U.S. and Nigerian forces conducted a joint operation on May 15, 2026, killing Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, assessed as head of the Islamic State's General Directorate of Provinces and a senior ISWAP leader.
May 14, 2026
De-escalating
Diplomatic
AFRICOM Commander Congressional Testimony on Africa Counter-Terrorism Posture FY2027
AFRICOM Commander General Dagvin Anderson testified before both the Senate and House Armed Services Committees in May 2026, publicly documenting a structural intelligence gap in the Sahel caused by basing losses, allied withdrawals, and coup-driven diplomatic ruptures.
May 1, 2026
Escalating
Sanctions
China Extends Full Zero-Tariff Access to 53 African States
Beijing granted duty-free treatment across all tariff lines to the 53 African states it holds diplomatic relations with, leaving out only Eswatini.
Apr 20, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Boko Haram Sadiku Wing Expands Operations into Borgu-Kainji Axis
The Sadiku wing of JAS has escalated attacks across the Borgu-Kainji corridor, including mass killings, kidnappings and roadside bombings, while Nigerian responses remain localized and reactive.
Apr 18, 2026
Escalating
Diplomatic
US Third-Country Deportation Network Expansion Across Africa
The US has constructed a web of secretive bilateral migration agreements with over a dozen African states, coercing acceptance of third-country deportees through threats of tariffs, visa restrictions, and aid withdrawal, while offering mineral access deals and security cooperation as inducements.
Apr 15, 2026
Escalating
Military
Nigeria Operation HADIN KAI Q1 2026 Offensive — ISWAP Leadership Attrition
Nigerian military forces, operating under Operation HADIN KAI, conducted precision air and ground strikes across Borno, Adamawa, Bauchi, Taraba, and Yobe states in Q1 2026, killing over 100 insurgents and eliminating senior ISWAP commander Abu Ya'yar al-Muhajir.
Mar 31, 2026
De-escalating
Other
ISSP Emerges as Transnational External Operations Hub
Islamic State Sahel Province has transitioned from a localized insurgency to a structured external operations platform, integrating into IS global command in 2022 and expanding networks into Morocco, Spain, France, Austria, and beyond.
Mar 30, 2026
Mixed
Military
Boko Haram/ISWAP Mass Abduction Attempt Repelled in Borno State
Boko Haram/ISWAP forces attempted to abduct approximately 150 civilians travelling in 17 vehicles along the Buratai-Kamuya axis in Borno State, attacking a Nigerian Army escort force.
Mar 2, 2026
Escalating
Military
Nigeria Warns Against Iranian-Linked IMN Mobilization
Following pro-Iran protests by the Islamic Movement in Nigeria across Kano, Bauchi, and Yobe, Nigerian authorities deployed heightened security and publicly warned that foreign ideological conflicts would not be allowed to take root domestically.
Feb 27, 2026
De-escalating
Military
Lakurawa Consolidates Coercive Governance in Northwest Nigeria Borderlands
Lakurawa has shifted from a tolerated anti-banditry presence in Sokoto and Kebbi states into a coercive parallel governance actor, enforcing Islamic behavioral codes, extracting resources through taxation and confiscation, and neutralizing community vigilantes.
Feb 15, 2026
Mixed
Other
JNIM Commander 'Saad' Defects to ISGS with Fighter Contingent
JNIM commander 'Saad,' who spearheaded the group's expansion into eastern Burkina Faso, defected to rival ISGS with several dozen fighters following a reported JNIM truce with the Beninese government.
Jan 1, 2026
Escalating
Legal
Nigeria Resumes Mass Terrorism Trials in Abuja
Nigeria resumed large-scale terrorism prosecutions at the Federal High Court in Abuja, with multiple judges hearing cases simultaneously and sentencing several defendants linked to Boko Haram.
Dec 31, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Nigeria Multi-Theater Security Deterioration Surpasses Boko Haram Peak
Nigeria recorded approximately 12,000 conflict-related deaths in 2025, exceeding the 2014 Boko Haram peak and surpassing Iraq, Syria, and Yemen combined for the same year.
Dec 1, 2025
Stable
Diplomatic
West African and Sahel States Convene to Rebuild Counter-Terrorism Coordination
Representatives from Benin, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire, Niger, Togo, Ghana and Mali met in a seminar hosted by Togo to rebuild counter-terrorism coordination after the Sahel states' withdrawal from ECOWAS and the collapse of the G5 Sahel joint force.
Jun 4, 2025
Escalating
Other
Algeria Breaks Ground on Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline Algerian Section
Algeria commenced construction on its section of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) in the Adrar region, following adoption of a final feasibility study by British consultancy Penspen.
Jun 3, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Somalia Federal-Opposition Armed Clashes Over Electoral System
Armed clashes between Somali federal troops and opposition-allied militias erupted in Mogadishu on June 3, following President Mohamud's contested one-year term extension and parliament's passage of constitutional amendments shifting Somalia toward direct elections.
Jun 2, 2025
Mixed
Political
Ethiopia Federal Election Under Multi-Front Conflict Conditions
Ethiopia held federal elections on June 2, 2025, with Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party projected to win a second five-year term in a landslide.
May 29, 2025
Mixed
Military
U.S.-Nigeria Joint Airstrikes Expand Against ISWAP in Northeast Nigeria
The United States has expanded joint military operations with Nigeria in the country's northeast, with recent strikes eliminating a top ISWAP leader and killing 175 militants.
May 16, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Nigeria-US Joint ISWAP Offensive Kills ISIS Global Deputy, 200+ Fighters in Borno State
A joint Nigerian-US kinetic campaign launched May 16 in Borno State neutralized over 200 ISWAP fighters and eliminated Abu Bilal al-Minuki, identified as ISIS global second-in-command.
May 16, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US-Nigeria Joint Operation Kills ISWAP Deputy Commander al-Minuki
A joint Nigerian Army commando and US Navy SEAL Team 6 helicopter-borne assault killed ISWAP second-in-command Abu-Bilal al-Minuki and approximately 40 lieutenants in a nearly three-hour battle.
May 15, 2025
De-escalating
Military
US Releases 2026 Counterterrorism Strategy; ISIS Deputy Killed in Nigeria Joint Operation
President Trump announced the killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, ISIS's second-in-command, in a joint US-Nigerian operation on May 15, 2025, coinciding with release of the administration's 2026 Counterterrorism Strategy.
May 4, 2025
Mixed
Military
US-Nigeria Joint Airstrikes Against Islamic State in Northeast Nigeria
AFRICOM and Nigerian forces conducted joint airstrikes against Islamic State militants in northeast Nigeria on May 4, 2025, two days after a joint operation killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, described as IS's second-in-command worldwide.
May 1, 2025
Escalating
Other
Nigeria Social Media Crowdfunding Reshapes Kidnapping Ransom Dynamics
Armed bandit groups in Nigeria's northwest are recalibrating ransom demands in real time based on the visibility and scale of social media crowdfunding campaigns, shifting from family-capacity pricing to network-capacity pricing.
Apr 20, 2025
Escalating
Military
Russia's Fraudulent African Military Recruitment Network Exposed
A decentralized network of recruiters operating across at least nine African countries — including Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Tanzania, Zambia, Togo, Botswana, and Mali — has been funneling economically vulnerable young men into Russian military service under false pretenses of civilian employment.
Apr 13, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Nigeria Raises Abuja Security Over Reported Jihadist Attack Plot
A Nigerian Customs Service memo triggered heightened security measures around Abuja after warning of credible Boko Haram and ISWAP plans to strike the capital's airport and prison facilities.
Apr 12, 2025
Mixed
Political
Wadagni Elected President of Benin with 94.27% of Vote
Romuald Wadagni won Benin's presidential election with 94.27% of the vote, marking the fifth democratic transfer of power since 1990 and the first under a significantly restructured constitutional framework.
Mar 20, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Mass Civilian Killings in Niger's Tahoua Region
Armed assailants on motorbikes attacked three isolated villages in the Birni N'Koni department of Niger's Tahoua region, killing 30 civilians and seizing approximately 500 head of livestock before withdrawing into Nigeria.
Feb 9, 2025
Mixed
Diplomatic
Tsamiya-Kamba Corridor Reopening Between Nigeria, Niger, and Benin
Nigeria officially reopened the Tsamiya-Kamba border corridor in Kebbi State, restoring cross-border movement of goods and people between Nigeria, Niger, and Benin after seven years of closure.
Feb 3, 2025
De-escalating
Sanctions
Global Foreign Aid Collapse — $30 Billion Reduction in 2025
In 2025, the United States dismantled USAID and, alongside France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, collectively cut approximately $30 billion in foreign aid.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Military
ISWAP Parallel Governance Expansion into Darak District, Northern Cameroon
ISWAP has systematically extended its territorial reach from Nigeria's Tumbuma Mantiqa into Cameroon's Darak district, deploying taxation, judicial enforcement, propaganda, and direct military attacks on state infrastructure.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Military
Joint U.S.-Nigeria Strike Kills Islamic State No. 2 al-Mainuki
U.S. and Nigerian forces conducted a joint operation killing Abu Bakr ibn Muhammad ibn 'Ali al-Mainuki, Islamic State's alleged second-in-command globally.
Jan 1, 2025
Escalating
Political
Tinubu Brokers APC Unity Pact in Zamfara Ahead of 2027 Elections
Governor Dauda Lawal's defection from the PDP to the APC, combined with Matawalle's withdrawal from gubernatorial competition, represents a Tinubu-engineered consolidation of federal ruling-party control over a historically volatile northwestern state.
Jan 1, 2025
De-escalating
Other
Lake Chad Basin Climate-Conflict Displacement Compounding Crisis
Climate disasters have surpassed armed conflict as the primary driver of displacement in the Lake Chad Basin, while the two stressors are increasingly compounding each other.
Sep 18, 2024
De-escalating
Military
Anti-Nigerian Violence After Igbo Leader Installation in East London
The installation of an Igbo community figure as 'Eze Ndi Igbo East London' triggered protests and retaliatory violence against Nigerians and Nigerian-owned businesses in East London and drew anti-immigrant mobilization in Pretoria.
Apr 5, 2024
De-escalating
Military
Kaduna Church Attack and Partial Hostage Rescue
Armed attackers raided churches in Ariko village, Kaduna state, killing worshippers and abducting civilians during Easter services.
Jan 1, 2023
Stable
Military
Abu Musab al-Barnawi Reported Killed in Kaduna State
Abu Musab al-Barnawi, ISWAP's last publicly identified leader and head of its media apparatus, is reported to have died in 2023 after detonating an explosive vest when Nigerian security forces arrived at his compound in Kaduna State.
Date unknown
Mixed
Institutional
Nigeria Reshuffles Military Command and Doubles Defense Spending Before 2027 Elections
President Bola Tinubu redeployed 15 senior generals, installed a new northeast army commander, approved four new army divisions with 28,000 additional personnel, and raised military pay, on top of a defense budget that rose by more than half in 2025 and is expected to double again.
Date unknown
Escalating
Other
Ghana Completes Debt Recovery as Hormuz Shock Hits West African Import Costs
Ghana recorded six percent growth in 2025 with inflation down to fourteen percent from thirty-three in 2023 and public debt falling from seventy percent of GDP to under forty-nine after restructuring, three years on from selective default.
Date unknown
Escalating
Legal
Wave of Treason Prosecutions Against African Opposition Leaders
Across at least ten African states, opposition leaders and their networks are facing treason, terrorism and conspiracy charges arising from disputed elections, protest mobilisation and alleged coup plots.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Four Donors Supply Half of Multilateral Funding With Earmarked Conditions
Roughly half the funding for more than 200 multilateral organisations comes from the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, and 81 percent of UN agency funding arrives earmarked for specified objectives.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
US Dismantling of USAID Triggers Record Global Aid Retrenchment
The dismantling of USAID at the start of the second Trump administration pulled other leading donors back in step, producing the largest single-year fall in foreign aid ever recorded, with OECD Development Assistance Committee flows down 23.1 percent in 2025.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Trafficking Networks Adapt by Recruiting Elderly Couriers Across West Africa
Drug syndicates operating through West Africa are systematically deploying couriers aged 50 and over across porous land borders and informal maritime routes, defeating enforcement profiles built around young offenders.
Date unknown
Escalating
Institutional
Nigeria Announces Expansion of the Army by Four Divisions
Nigeria announced a fifty percent expansion of its army, adding four divisions to the existing eight, recruiting 28,000 soldiers, creating new brigades and battalions in conflict-prone areas and raising military pay by 30 to 80 percent by rank.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
United States Replaces African Aid Architecture With Transactional Investment Program
Washington has ceased almost all USAID programming and limited PEPFAR support across Africa, replacing it with a $500 million U.S.-Africa Strategic Investment Program awarding competitive grants to businesses and nonprofits aligned with US interests.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
US Advocacy Push to Retain Nigeria's Country of Particular Concern Designation
American Christian rights advocates began lobbying early for the administration to renew Nigeria's designation as a Country of Particular Concern, citing killings of Christians.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Nigerian Forces Free 308 Hostages in Kainji Operation
Nigerian military and intelligence units stormed a forest hideout inside Kainji Lake National Park and freed 308 hostages seized in coordinated attacks last February.
Date unknown
Stable
Institutional
Nigeria Urged to Pivot Niger Delta From Oil Rents to Captive Power and Blue Economy
Bayelsa, where Nigerian oil was first struck, recorded an 89 per cent multidimensional poverty rate against a national average of 63 per cent, and roughly 12 million coastal residents have never been reached by the national grid.
Date unknown
Stable
Institutional
Nigeria Approves Army Expansion to Twelve Divisions
Nigeria's president approved expanding the army from eight to twelve divisions and recruiting 28,000 additional personnel, a response to insurgency in the northeast, mass kidnappings in the northwest, separatist violence in the southeast, communal conflict in the Middle Belt and piracy in the Gulf of Guinea.
Date unknown
Stable
Other
Pan-Africanist Critique Frames Continental Crises as Renewed External Domination
The commentary treats Africa's active crises as one system rather than separate emergencies. Sudan's war, resource-driven conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, insurgency in Cabo Delgado
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Boko Haram Elevates Cameroonian Commanders to Extend Reach Into Far North
Boko Haram's two factions are promoting Cameroonian fighters into strategic and tactical command, with at least five commanders mobilizing around a thousand fighters in Mayo-Sava and Mayo-Tsanaga.
Date unknown
Escalating
Military
Islamic State Affiliates Redeploy Fighters Across Lake Chad and Sahel
A recent leadership council resolved to send 100 fighters from the Lake Chad Basin to reinforce affiliates near Mali's border with Niger, and 50 more to Nasarawa in central Nigeria hundreds of kilometres from their stronghold.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
UK Cuts Africa Bilateral Aid 52 Percent to Fund Defence Spending
The UK government's latest spending plans reduce regional bilateral aid to Africa by 52 percent over three years to finance higher defense spending, as new Prime Minister Andy Burnham takes office with Africa low among his foreign policy priorities.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Army-Militia Security Bargains Proliferate Across Central Africa
Across Chad, Cameroon, CAR, eastern DRC, and South Sudan, the line between state security forces and armed groups is dissolving into hybrid bargains: militias fight alongside armies, collect revenue, run checkpoints, and govern areas outside state control.
Date unknown
Escalating
Diplomatic
Nigeria Reasserts West African Leadership Through Pro-Democracy Interventions
Under Tinubu, Nigeria has assembled a pattern of assertive regional action: leading ECOWAS denunciation and sanctions pressure against Niger's junta including cutting electricity supply, deploying fighter jets and ground troops to defeat a December coup attempt against Benin's elected government and reinforcing that presence in recent weeks, initiating reconciliation talks with the breakaway Alliance of Sahel States, and running joint counterterrorism operations with the United States that killed a senior Islamic State commander in May.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Other
Sahel Refugee Influx Strains Northern Benin Reception Capacity
Tens of thousands of forcibly displaced people fleeing violence in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria have arrived in northern Benin, with arrivals noticeably accelerating since January-February.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Diplomatic
Starmer's Promised UK-Africa Engagement Reset Fails to Materialize
Under Keir Starmer, Britain promised a strategic reset toward Africa to rebuild influence eroded by aid cuts and Brexit, but delivered only fragmented initiatives without a unifying vision.
Date unknown
Stable
Diplomatic
Nigerian Presidential Rivals Court Trump Administration Ahead of 2027 Vote
Rival Nigerian presidential camps are signing Washington lobbyists to win Trump administration favor ahead of the 2027 election, each pitching itself as the best partner on Nigerian insecurity.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Jihadist School Attacks and Teacher Beheading in Oyo State, Nigeria
Armed militants conducted coordinated attacks on schools across three communities in Oyo State, abducting 39 pupils and 7 teachers and killing two teachers — including one beheaded on video.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Institutional
Trump FY2027 Budget Proposes 30% State Department Cut and $1.5trn Military Increase
The Trump administration's FY2027 budget request seeks a 30% reduction in State Department funding to $33.6bn, eliminating 10,000 diplomatic personnel and cutting foreign assistance to $20.9bn, while simultaneously requesting a record $1.5trn for the military.
War / Africa
Nigeria's operational gains displace rather than degrade insurgents as Cameroon's succession vacuum and cross-border adaptation deepen structural risk.
War / Africa
Federal drone strikes on Mekelle and a deadlocked multi-front insurgency push Ethiopia toward renewed full-scale war.
ISWAP maintains formal affiliation with Islamic State central, receiving ideological guidance and cross-regional operational direction that enabled pre-emptive.
IS-Sahel Province functions as a connective node between the Lake Chad Basin and broader Sahel theaters.
Boko Haram's JAS wing sustains autonomous sanctuary in the Borgu-Kainji forest corridor along the Niger border.
Boko Haram's Cameroonian commanders, at least five elevated to strategic and tactical roles in Mayo-Sava and Mayo-Tsanaga.
Lakurawa operates as a coercive parallel governance actor in Sokoto and Kebbi borderlands, taxing communities and enforcing compliance independent of Abuja.