Iraq ISIS and PMF Insurgency

U.S.-Backed Ali Al Zaidi Emerges as Likely Iraqi Prime Minister

Ali Al Zaidi, an Iraqi businessman with limited political profile, has emerged as the frontrunner for Iraq's prime ministership with explicit backing from President Trump, who has reportedly invited him to Washington.

Israel Establishes Military Outpost in Iraqi Desert to Support Iran Air Campaign

Israel set up a military outpost in the Iraqi desert to provide logistical and operational support for its air campaign against Iran.

Iran Issues Hormuz Coercion Warning to Gulf States Amid Naval Clashes

Iran's military spokesman explicitly threatened Gulf states with 'severe consequences' for complying with US sanctions, leveraging Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas flows.

Israel Operates Clandestine Forward Base in Iraqi Desert, Strikes Iraqi Forces

Israel secretly established a forward operating base in western Iraq to support its air campaign against Iran, housing special forces and search-and-rescue teams with U.S. knowledge.

Gulf Arab States Express Alarm Over U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Security Gaps

Arab Gulf states, led primarily by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have signaled deep concern that ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations will produce a deal that constrains Iran's nuclear program without addressing its ballistic missile capabilities or proxy network sponsorship.

Wartime Social Consolidation and Internet Isolation in Iran

Iran has maintained a near-total international internet blackout since January 2025, substituting a domestic intranet ecosystem with local analogues to major platforms.

Pakistan Emerges as West Asian Security Stabilizer and U.S.-Iran Mediator

Following its May 2025 military conflict with India, Pakistan signed a NATO-like mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia and joined the Trump administration's Gaza Peace Board in January 2026.

Israeli-U.S. Military Campaign Destroys Iranian Nuclear and Military Infrastructure

Over 12 days in June 2025, Israel struck Iranian cities and military installations, enabling the United States to deploy 14 bunker-busting bombs against Iranian nuclear sites.

Trump Signs Revised National Counterterrorism Strategy

President Trump signed a new national counterterrorism strategy that reorients U.S. counterterrorism priorities away from jihadist and far-right threats toward drug cartels in the Western Hemisphere and vaguely defined left-wing extremist groups.

Saudi Arabia Denies U.S. Basing and Overflight Access, Curtailing Hormuz Mission

Saudi Arabia denied the United States base and overflight access, directly contributing to Trump ending a U.S. military mission in the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week.

U.S. Treasury Sanctions Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister for Iran Sanctions Evasion

The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Iraq's Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly for authorizing the blending of Iranian crude with Iraqi oil to circumvent international sanctions, generating several million dollars per day in illicit revenue.

Iran Regime Recaptures Urban Public Space Under Wartime Mobilization

Since the onset of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, the Islamic Republic has deployed Basij networks, IRGC-affiliated groups, and loyalist civilian formations into urban public spaces across Tehran and major cities, reversing a decade-long trend of civilian social encroachment on regime-controlled norms.

Operation Epic Fury: U.S. Military Campaign Against Iran

The United States launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran approximately two months prior to publication, at a cost the Pentagon estimates at $25–50 billion through end of April 2025.

Iranian Strike Campaign Damages 228+ Structures at U.S. Middle East Bases

Satellite imagery analysis documents at least 228 structures or equipment items damaged or destroyed at U.S. military installations across the Middle East since October 2023, attributable to Iranian strikes or Iranian-backed proxy attacks.

Iraq Political Transition Amid Militia-Driven Sovereignty Crisis

Iraq elected a new president (Nizar Amidi, PUK) and named a prime minister-designate (Ali al-Zaidi) after missing constitutional deadlines by months, while simultaneously confronting a sovereignty crisis in which Iran-aligned militias launched attacks on U.S., Gulf, and Iraqi targets from Iraqi soil.

Iran Reframes Strategic Victory as Regime Survival Under Military Pressure

Under sustained U.S. and Israeli military pressure, including direct strikes on nuclear facilities and command infrastructure, Iran's senior leadership has publicly redefined victory as survival and endurance rather than regional transformation or the elimination of adversaries.

U.S.-Iran War Escalation and Forever War Risk Assessment

An active U.S.-Iran military conflict is underway, involving over 16,000 U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, Iranian regional strikes, and Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Launches 'Project Freedom' Hormuz Commercial Shipping Escort Initiative

President Trump announced a U.S. military escort program for commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, framing it as a response to ships being 'trapped' by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

ASEAN Summit Convenes Amid Iran War Economic Fallout

ASEAN heads of government convened in Cebu, Philippines, with the economic fallout of an ongoing Iran war dominating the agenda, as oil prices breached $100 per barrel and inflation hit Vietnam and the Philippines hardest.

Iran Drone and Missile Strike on Fujairah Oil Port and Hormuz Tanker

Iran struck the UAE port of Fujairah with drones and launched missiles intercepted by UAE air defenses, while also hitting an ADNOC-affiliated tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran Leadership Consolidation Under Wartime Pressure

Reporting from multiple trips to Tehran indicates that Iran's leadership has consolidated rather than fractured under sustained U.S. and Israeli military pressure and prolonged economic strain.

Iran Retaliatory Strikes on Gulf States Following U.S.-Israeli Attack on Iran

Following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran beginning February 28, 2025, Iran retaliated by striking airports, seaports, oil installations, and desalination plants across Gulf Arab states and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, fully blocking exports from Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar while impeding those of Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

U.S. Emergency Arms Sales to Gulf Partners and Israel Post-Iran War

The Trump administration invoked emergency authority for the third time to authorize $8.6 billion in arms transfers to Israel, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, bypassing standard congressional review.

Iran Large-Scale Drone and Missile Campaign Against Arab Neighbors

Iran launched approximately ten thousand drones and missiles against Arab neighbors in a compressed timeframe, representing a qualitative escalation beyond previous proxy-mediated coercion. The author frames this as a threshold event that invalidates the prior regional deterrence equilibrium.

UAE Exits OPEC, Declaring Strategic Divergence from Gulf Consensus

The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC effective May 1, 2025, without consulting Saudi Arabia — a deliberate signal of strategic autonomy.

Iraq Coordination Framework Nominates Ali al-Zaidi as Prime Minister

The Coordination Framework, Iraq's dominant Shia political coalition, nominated businessman Ali al-Zaidi as prime minister-designate following months of post-election gridlock.

Killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and Subsequent Cease-Fire

The article posits a scenario in which Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been killed, triggering violent protests at U.S. diplomatic missions in Karachi and Baghdad and mass demonstrations across the Muslim world.

UAE Exits OPEC, Deploys Israeli Iron Dome, Deepens Israel-US Security Integration

The UAE has withdrawn from OPEC, accepted deployment of Israeli Iron Dome batteries operated by Israeli troops on its soil, and moved to sanction Iranian financial access — a cluster of decisions that collectively reorient UAE strategic alignment away from Arab collective frameworks and toward a bilateral Israel-US security architecture.

U.S.-Iran War Exposes Limits of Military Superiority in Multipolar Order

The ongoing U.S.-Iran war is producing a structural divergence between American military dominance and its capacity to achieve durable political outcomes, mirroring the pattern of Vietnam and Iraq.

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Kills Khamenei, Consolidates IRGC Hard-Line Rule

U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran in late February 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior regime figures.

UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC

The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC, effective Friday, citing unfair quota allocations that have constrained its crude export capacity.

UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC

The UAE formally announced its exit from OPEC, effective next month, citing strategic misalignment with the cartel's quota regime and a desire to accelerate independent energy production.

U.S.-Iran War and IRGC Leadership Consolidation Post-Strike

U.S. and Israeli military action killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior deputies, producing a leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader and consolidating IRGC control over Iranian governance.

Iran's Post-War Leadership Consolidation Under Mojtaba Khamenei

Following the death of Ali Khamenei and a wartime succession, Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated authority through networked coordination among the IRGC, clerical institutions, maddahan networks, and media actors rather than through a visible hierarchical structure.

Iraq Names Compromise Prime Minister-Designate Under U.S.-Iran Pressure

Iraq's president designated Ali al-Zaidi, a businessman with no public political profile, as prime minister-designate after U.S. coercive pressure — including suspension of security assistance and dollar transfers — forced the withdrawal of Iran-aligned candidates al-Maliki and al-Sudani.

Turkey Maintains Neutrality Amid U.S.-Israeli War on Iran

Turkey has refused to support the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran or permit use of its airspace for strikes, while simultaneously backing Pakistani-mediated negotiations and urging Washington toward a negotiated settlement.

U.S. Bombing Campaign Against Iran and Congressional War Powers Standoff

The United States has conducted a sustained bombing campaign against Iran for nearly two months, with ceasefire negotiations ongoing but unresolved. Republican-controlled Congress has declined to constrain presidential war powers, blocking Democratic proposals to reimpose legislative limits.

U.S.-Iran War Triggers Domestic Coalition Fracture

Approximately two months into a U.S. war against Iran, domestic polling shows roughly two-thirds of Americans oppose the conflict, with only 25% calling it worth the cost.

Hormuz Chokepoint Crisis and Western Energy Corridor Strategy Debate

Iran's effective leverage over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude, condensate, and gas transit — has created a structural energy security crisis for the West with no near-term military or diplomatic resolution in sight.

U.S. Sanctions Iran Shadow Fleet and Chinese Teapot Refinery

The U.S. Treasury designated 40 shipping firms and vessels comprising part of Iran's shadow tanker fleet, alongside Hengli Petrochemical Refinery — China's second-largest independent refinery and a major Iranian crude customer.

Gulf State Internal Crackdowns Amid U.S.-Israeli War on Iran

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has triggered cascading domestic security responses across GCC states, including mass arrests for filming strike damage, suppression of social media dissent, and sectarian-coded crackdowns in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.

Trump Indefinitely Extends U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Amid Hormuz Stalemate

President Trump indefinitely extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, citing fractured Iranian leadership, after peace talks stalled with no overlap between the two sides' demands.

Dual Blockade Standoff at Strait of Hormuz

Following a U.S.-Iran cease-fire, both powers are asserting competing coercive control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's IRGC is demanding passage authorization for all vessels and has seized two cargo ships, while reportedly mining main channels and positioning fighters in sea caves. The U.S.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Structural Gulf Oil Production Degradation

A U.S.-Iran tanker war has effectively closed the Persian Gulf to oil traffic, causing Gulf producers to shut in fields under emergency conditions that have damaged wells, depleted reservoir pressure, and dispersed tanker fleets globally.

Saudi Arabia Strategic Paralysis During U.S.-Israel-Iran War

Saudi Arabia has adopted a posture of strategic ambiguity during the ongoing U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran (Operation Epic Fury), absorbing Iranian and Iraqi proxy attacks while declining to retaliate, publicly denying support for the war despite reported private lobbying of Trump to attack Iran, and cutting Vision 2030 project timelines due to economic pressure.

IRGC Assumes Collective Decision-Making Authority Under Incapacitated Mojtaba Khamenei

Following the death of Ali Khamenei and the wounding of his successor Mojtaba in a February 28 airstrike, effective control over Iran's security, diplomatic, and military decisions has shifted to a collective of IRGC generals.

U.S. War Powers Resolution Deadline Approaches for Iran Military Campaign

The 60-day War Powers Resolution clock, triggered by Trump's March 2 congressional notification of U.S.-Israeli joint strikes against Iran beginning February 28, expires May 1.

Trump Extends U.S.-Iran Truce Amid Hormuz Standoff

Trump extended the U.S.-Iran truce at the eleventh hour to allow Iran's leadership to produce a unified negotiating proposal, reversing his earlier stated opposition to an extension.

IRGC-Aligned Leadership Consolidation Under Zolghadr in Post-Conflict Iran

The emergence of Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr as a central figure in Iran's postwar leadership structure signals a consolidation of IRGC institutional power over the Islamic Republic's governing apparatus.

U.S. Suspends Dollar Shipments and Security Cooperation with Iraq Over Iranian Militia Pressure

The U.S. Treasury blocked a nearly $500 million dollar cargo shipment — the second such delay since the Iran war began in late February 2025 — representing proceeds from Iraqi oil sales held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

United States Suspends Security Cooperation With Iraq

The United States halted security cooperation and funding for Iraq's security services after drone and militia attacks on U.S. interests in Baghdad and northern Iraq. The move is intended to pressure Baghdad to dismantle or restrain Iran-aligned militias embedded in Iraq's political-security system.

Death of Ali Khamenei and Succession of Mojtaba Khamenei

Ali Khamenei's death triggered a rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei, but the transition removes the only figure with enough authority to arbitrate among Iran's rival power centers.

Xi Urges Saudi Arabia to Keep Strait of Hormuz Open

Xi Jinping used a direct call with Mohammed bin Salman to press for open commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions.

U.S. and Iran Prepare New Islamabad Talks Amid Hormuz Blockade

The United States and Iran signaled readiness for another round of talks in Islamabad even as a U.S. naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz sharply constrained Iranian shipping and Iran threatened retaliation for a seized cargo vessel.

Iran Strait of Hormuz Blockade Drives Global Energy Shock

The article describes a prolonged Iran-linked disruption of the Strait of Hormuz that is transmitting energy, fertilizer, and shipping shocks across import-dependent economies.

Iran-Backed Iraqi Militia Drone Campaign Against Gulf States

Iraqi Shia militias, increasingly integrated into Iran's IRGC command structure, launched hundreds of explosive drones against Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain over five weeks, striking energy infrastructure including the Yanbu refinery and Eastern Province oil fields.

NATO Ankara Summit Agenda Push for European Burden-Shifting

The article outlines a coordinated policy push ahead of the 2026 NATO Summit to formalize a rebalancing of alliance responsibilities from the United States toward European allies.

U.S.-Iran Pakistan Talks Under Hormuz Coercion

The United States is preparing a new round of talks with Iran in Pakistan while simultaneously enforcing a maritime blockade, threatening airstrikes, and demanding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and long-term limits on uranium enrichment.

United States Expands Iran Naval Blockade to Global High Seas

The United States broadened its blockade from Iranian ports and nearby waters to a de facto global interdiction posture against any vessel materially supporting Iran.

UAE Seeks U.S. Dollar Backstop Amid Iran War Disruption

The UAE opened preliminary talks with U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve officials about a possible dollar swap line or alternative financial backstop as war with Iran disrupted oil exports, damaged infrastructure, and threatened reserve stability.

Europe Advances Independent Strait of Hormuz Escort Mission

France, Britain, Germany, Italy and other partners are planning a multinational naval mission to escort shipping and potentially clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

United States Expands Global Interdiction of Iran-Linked Shipping

The United States is preparing to board and seize Iran-linked tankers and commercial vessels in international waters, extending enforcement beyond the Persian Gulf into a global maritime pressure campaign.

Iran Reimposes Strait of Hormuz Restrictions and IRGC Fires on Tanker

Iran restored restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz after a brief reopening and signaled that transit would remain constrained while US measures against Iranian shipping continued.

Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz on Pre-Approved Route Amid Cease-Fire

Iran's decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz only for pre-approved shipping routes preserves its ability to selectively constrain maritime traffic rather than relinquishing leverage.

Iran Adopts Regionalized Escalation and Strait of Hormuz Closure Strategy

Following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran shifted from a primarily retaliatory deterrence model to a broader coercive strategy that regionalizes conflict through attacks or threats against energy, financial, and transit infrastructure.

Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz Under Ongoing US Port Blockade

Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for shipping, while the United States kept its naval blockade on Iranian ports in place pending a political deal. The move temporarily reduces immediate market disruption, but leaves Washington exercising coercive control over Iran's maritime commerce.

Formation of Iranian Kurdish Militant Coalition for Potential Western Iran Offensive

A coalition of Iranian Kurdish armed factions was formed to coordinate potential operations in western Iran amid reported consideration of U.S. and Israeli support.

Basra Climate Degradation Deepens Afro-Iraqi Marginalization

The event is the cumulative intensification of climate stress and environmental degradation in Basra Governorate, especially Zubayr, under conditions of weak Iraqi state response.

Iran War Disrupts Strait of Hormuz and Raises Global Macroeconomic Risk

The war involving Iran temporarily closed the Strait of Hormuz for more than a month and left post-ceasefire shipping flows uncertain even after combat largely subsided.

U.S. Blockade of Iranian Ports After Failed Islamabad Talks

After talks in Islamabad broke down, the United States moved naval forces to block vessels leaving Iranian ports in order to pressure Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and abandon transit tolls.

United States Expands Maritime and Financial Pressure on Iran

Washington is pairing fresh sanctions threats with a global maritime interdiction posture aimed at constraining Iranian exports and external support networks.

Hormuz Blockage Accelerates China-Centric Energy Transition

The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted hydrocarbon exports from the Gulf, forcing import-dependent states to adopt emergency conservation measures and accelerate renewable energy deployment.

U.S. Attack on Iran Triggers Hormuz Energy Shock

The article frames the U.S. decision to attack Iran as a coercive move that has contributed to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a resulting global energy crisis.

Khamenei Killing Catalyzes Bottom-Up Shiite Mobilization

The article describes how the killing of Iran's supreme leader, combined with expanded U.S. and Israeli strikes on Hezbollah-linked areas in Lebanon and PMF-linked infrastructure in Iraq, is transforming Shiite identity into a stronger mobilizing force.

Türkiye and Azerbaijan Coordinate to Deter Kurdish Spillover from Iran Conflict

Türkiye and Azerbaijan are aligning diplomatically and militarily to deter any Kurdish militant expansion linked to the Iran conflict, especially in northern Iraq and Iran's West Azerbaijan province.

Iran Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Disrupts Global Oil Markets

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz constrains a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil flows, raising prices worldwide.

Damascus Reasserts Control Over Northeast Syria After SDF Retreat

The Syrian government used military pressure, tribal coordination, and a formal integration agreement to dismantle the SDF's autonomous governing position across much of northeast Syria.

United States Tightens Maritime and Financial Pressure on Iran

The United States is intensifying coercive pressure on Iran through a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, planned resumption of sanctions waivers on Iranian oil, and warnings to financial institutions about exposure to Iran-linked actors.

United States Imposes Iranian Port Blockade While Pursuing Renewed Nuclear Talks

The United States imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports after weekend talks in Pakistan failed to produce a settlement, while both sides signaled possible renewed negotiations.

Russia Launches Fertiliser Diplomacy Amid Hormuz Disruption

Russia signaled readiness to redirect fertiliser exports to global south markets as Hormuz disruption raised fears of supply shocks, while linking access to support for Russian-led groupings and using the crisis to press for sanctions relief in the West.

United States Imposes Naval Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

The United States imposed a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz during its war with Iran, targeting the maritime chokepoint through which most Iranian oil exports and key imports transit.

Assessment of Iran's Regional Influence Network Under Conflict Pressure

The source is an analytical discussion rather than a report of a discrete operational event. Its relevance lies in evaluating whether Iran can continue converting formal state authority and proxy ties into practical regional influence as conflict pressures mount.

U.S.-Israel-Iran Cease-fire Frays Over Hormuz, Lebanon, and Negotiation Terms

A publicly announced cease-fire between the United States, Israel, and Iran appears unstable because the parties dispute whether it covers Lebanon, how and when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and what terms govern future negotiations.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Exposes Breakdown of U.S.-Led Economic Order

The article frames the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the downstream consequence of a U.S.- and Israel-led war against Iran, producing a major energy supply shock and revealing the inability of existing multilateral institutions to constrain the hegemon.

Iran War Reshapes Russia's Energy and Security Leverage Over Europe

The conflict around Iran temporarily improves Russia's position by raising oil prices, easing pressure on Kremlin revenues, and diverting Western air-defence inventories and political attention away from Ukraine.

United States Announces Naval Blockade of Iranian Port Traffic via Hormuz Approaches

The United States announced that its navy would interdict ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, effectively imposing a naval blockade in response to Iran's continued de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran Demonstrates Strait of Hormuz Closure Leverage in U.S.-Iran War

Iran's wartime disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz created a new deterrent instrument after degradation of its proxy network, missile posture, and nuclear infrastructure.

Iran Suffers Strategic Degradation Despite Hormuz Closure

The article assesses the net effects of the recent U.S.-Israeli campaign on Iran and concludes that Tehran's effective power has declined despite surviving the war and temporarily closing the Strait of Hormuz.

United States Begins Hormuz Blockade Enforcement Against Iran-Linked Shipping

The United States is initiating naval interdiction of ships that pay Iranian tolls in the Strait of Hormuz and beginning mine-clearing operations against Iranian-laid mines.

Iran Conflict Expands Maritime Risk from Hormuz into the Indian Ocean

The discussion identifies the Hormuz crisis and associated naval losses, including the sinking of IRIS Dena, as a turning point that extends coercive confrontation beyond the Gulf into the Indian Ocean.

United States Announces Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to Pressure Iran

The United States announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after talks with Iran in Islamabad failed to produce agreement on the nuclear issue.

Iran Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Triggers Global and African Growth Downgrades

Iran's continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is constraining oil, LNG and commodity flows, forcing the IMF and World Bank to downgrade growth forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa and the wider global economy.

Gulf States Diversify Air Defense Procurement After Iranian Strike Campaign

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are seeking alternative air-defense systems and cooperation agreements after Iranian attacks depleted interceptor stocks and exposed delivery bottlenecks in U.S. supply chains.

Iran Consolidates Coercive Leverage Over Strait of Hormuz After Gulf Strikes

The text describes Iran using sustained missile and drone attacks against GCC energy and technology infrastructure while pairing coercion with cease-fire terms asserting coordinated passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump Issues Escalatory Ultimatum to Iran

The US president publicly threatened catastrophic destruction if Iran does not accept US demands, while senior US officials signaled additional coercive options remain available.

Profile of Brett McGurk's Cross-Administration Influence on U.S. Middle East Policy

This is not a discrete operational event but an analytical account of how Brett McGurk shaped U.S. Middle East policy across Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Israel-Gaza, and Iran over two decades.

U.S.-Iran Two-Week Cease-Fire and Islamabad Talks Launch

The United States and Iran entered a two-week cease-fire intended to pause direct confrontation and create space for negotiations in Islamabad.

Russia Expands Limited Intelligence and Military Support to Iran During U.S.-Iran Conflict

The discussion indicates Russia is likely providing at least some intelligence support to Iran and has transferred improved drone know-how derived from earlier Iranian systems.

U.S.-Israeli Campaign Targets Iran-Aligned Networks in Iraq

The United States and Israel expanded strikes from retaliation to a broader campaign aimed at decapitating and dismantling Iran-aligned armed networks in Iraq.

Regional War Spillover Intensifies Pressure on Iraqi Sovereignty

Escalation between Iran, Israel, and the United States is pulling Iraq into the conflict despite Baghdad's formal neutrality.

Iran Expands Gulf Retaliation Threats and Regional Strike Activity

Iran publicly added Saudi and Emirati energy infrastructure to its target set and regional missile-drone activity hit or threatened Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Israel and Gulf maritime infrastructure as US pressure intensified.

Kataib Hezbollah Frees U.S. Journalist After Prisoner Exchange

Kataib Hezbollah released American journalist Shelly Kittleson after a week in captivity, reportedly in exchange for the release of detained militia members.

Trump Threatens Expanded U.S. Bombing of Iran

The U.S. president issued an explicit deadline-backed threat to expand bombing across Iranian critical infrastructure unless Tehran accepts U.S. terms.

Iran Strikes Jordan With Drones and Missile

Iran's launch of drones and a missile into Jordanian territory demonstrates willingness and capacity to impose direct coercive costs on a neighboring state outside the primary Iran-Israel theater.

Regional Preparation for Potential US Ground Incursion into Iran

The article describes a shift in regional threat calculations as US options toward Iran reportedly expand from airstrikes to possible covert raids or limited ground operations.

Iranian Kurdish Opposition Denies US Arms Transfer Claims

Public claims that the United States armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups were denied by the principal Kurdish factions, which emphasized they had neither received weapons nor established such channels with Washington.

US-Europe Rift Over NATO Role in Iran Confrontation

The event is a widening strategic disagreement inside NATO over whether the alliance should support a more assertive posture toward Iran beyond its traditional Euro-Atlantic defense mission.

Iranian State Retains Internal Control After Five Weeks of U.S.-Israeli Strikes

Five weeks after the opening U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran still shows functioning state control along key internal corridors and in Tehran despite extensive bombardment.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Cripples Iraqi Oil Exports

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran has sharply reduced Iraq's oil exports and forced a major production cut across southern fields.

Iran Sustains Attritional Resistance and Restricts Strait of Hormuz Traffic

Iran retained sufficient coercive capacity after more than a month of US-Israeli operations to continue retaliatory strikes and constrain maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Iran Hostage Rescue Mission Aborted After Aircraft Failure

The United States inserted special operations forces into Iran to recover a stranded American specialist, demonstrating substantial long-range penetration capability and temporary tactical surprise.

US Conducts Deep Recovery Mission in Iran After F-15 Shootdown

After a US F-15E was shot down over southern Iran, the United States mounted a major night-time personnel recovery operation involving special forces, aircraft, helicopters, and intelligence support to extract a missing crew member from hostile territory.

US Special Operations Rescue of Downed Airman in Iran

The United States successfully recovered a downed airman inside Iranian territory after a two-day race with Iranian forces to secure him. The operation demonstrates US capacity to project force, intelligence, and special operations reach into a hostile state despite contested conditions.

United States Threatens and Expands Strikes on Iranian Civilian Infrastructure

The United States, under President Trump, publicly threatened systematic attacks on Iranian power plants, bridges, desalination facilities, and oil infrastructure, while already conducting strikes including the destruction of a major bridge near Tehran.

Zarif Publishes Bilateral Reset Proposal Excluding Gulf States

Former Iranian FM Mohammad Javad Zarif published a Foreign Affairs essay proposing a U.S.-Iran bilateral deal: enrichment capped below 3.67%, IAEA Additional Protocol ratification, full material transfer to a multilateral consortium, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and a bilateral nonaggression pact.

U.S.-Israeli Rescue of Downed American Airman in Iran

After Iran shot down a U.S. F-15, the United States successfully recovered the stranded airman from Iranian territory or contested space, with Israeli intelligence support and a localized Israeli pause in strikes to enable the mission.

US Deep-Penetration Rescue Mission in Isfahan

US forces reportedly inserted special operations personnel deep into Iran to recover a downed airman, using airpower to suppress approaching Iranian units and destroying stranded aircraft to prevent capture.

United States Reallocates JASSM-ER Stockpiles to Iran Campaign

The United States is reportedly preparing to commit nearly its full inventory of JASSM-ER long-range cruise missiles to ongoing operations against Iran, drawing from stockpiles previously assigned to other theaters.

US-Israeli Ultimatum to Iran Over Strait of Hormuz

The United States and Israel escalated coercive pressure on Iran by threatening attacks on its energy infrastructure unless Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

United States Expands Iran Air Campaign to Civilian Infrastructure Targets

The United States struck a bridge west of Tehran and signaled possible follow-on attacks against Iran's power infrastructure and other civilian-adjacent facilities.

US-Israeli Strikes Sustain Air Superiority and Target Iran's Reconstitution Pathways

US and Israeli forces continued nationwide strikes in Iran while targeting air defenses, missile-supporting petrochemical infrastructure, state broadcasting, and the Shalamcheh border crossing.

Iran Grants Iraq Exemption From Strait of Hormuz Transit Restrictions

Iran signaled that any transit restrictions it imposes in the Strait of Hormuz would not apply to Iraq, implying Tehran believes it can selectively regulate passage through the waterway. This is a coercive demonstration of exercised maritime influence rather than a purely rhetorical claim.

US-Israeli Air Campaign Against Iran Fails to Trigger Internal Collapse

The article describes a US-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran framed by its backers as a catalyst for domestic uprising.

Iran Claims Downing of US Aircraft and Expands Regional Retaliation

The reported event indicates a sharp escalation in direct Iran-US confrontation, with Iran claiming it downed a US A-10 in the Gulf while also announcing attacks on a commercial ship in Bahrain allegedly linked to Israel.

Fourth Strike Near Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant

Repeated strikes near Bushehr show the war has moved beyond military assets into strategic energy and nuclear-adjacent infrastructure, increasing pressure on Iran's industrial base and deterrent posture.

United Kingdom Expands U.S. Access to British Bases for Strikes on Iran

The United Kingdom moved from restricting U.S. use of British bases for early strikes on Iran to allowing operations framed first as defensive and later as necessary to protect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The likely launch of a downed U.S.

Iran Endures U.S.-Israeli Air Campaign and Seeks Negotiated Off-Ramp

The article describes an ongoing U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign against Iran that, by the author's account, has failed to topple the Islamic Republic or sever leadership continuity.

Iran Downs US Aircraft and Hunts Missing Pilot

Iranian fire downed a US F-15E over Iran and hit an A-10 that later crashed in Kuwait, while Iranian forces searched for a missing US pilot in southwestern Iran.

Iran Shoots Down U.S. Warplane Over Iranian Territory

Iranian forces reportedly shot down a U.S. F-15E over Iranian territory, with one crew member rescued and another missing, marking the first confirmed U.S. aircraft loss inside Iran during the war.

Iran Resists U.S. Coercive Air Campaign Despite Sustained Strikes

After five weeks of U.S.-led war against Iran, Tehran has not accepted U.S. demands despite more than 12,000 strikes and the killing of senior leaders. Iran's continued resistance, including downing a U.S.

Iran Shoots Down US F-15 Over Central Iran

Iran claims it destroyed a US F-15 in central Iranian airspace, forcing a live recovery contest over the crew between Iranian and US forces. If accurate, the incident demonstrates that Iran can contest US air superiority over its own territory and impose operational friction on US strike campaigns.

Iran Downs Two U.S. Military Aircraft

Iranian fire brought down two U.S. military fixed-wing aircraft roughly one month into the war, with two pilots rescued and one still missing.

Iran Shoots Down U.S. F-15E Over Khuzestan

Iranian air defenses reportedly downed a U.S. F-15E operating over Khuzestan, directly contesting U.S. claims of air superiority.

Iranian Drone Strike Damages U.S. Embassy in Riyadh

Iranian drones penetrated Riyadh's defended Diplomatic Quarter and struck the U.S. Embassy compound, heavily damaging secure areas and exposing vulnerabilities in both U.S. force protection and Saudi air defense coverage.

Trump Requests Record U.S. Defense Budget for FY2027

The White House requested roughly $1.5 trillion in U.S. defense spending for fiscal year 2027, a major increase over the prior year and a signal of expanded warfighting priorities.

Islamic State Ecosystem Expands Drone-Enabled Lone-Actor Attack Capability

The article identifies a cross-regional pattern in which Islamic State-linked propaganda and instructional material are helping lone actors and small cells adopt commercial drones for surveillance, weapons transport, and attempted attacks.

Iran Downs Two U.S. Military Aircraft in Active Conflict Theater

Iran shot down two U.S. military aircraft on April 4, 2026 — an F-15E Strike Eagle over Iranian territory and an A-10 over the Persian Gulf — marking the first loss of U.S. aircraft in the conflict. One crew member was rescued, one remained missing.

Iran Sustains Strait of Hormuz Blockade as Primary Coercive Lever

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively blocked commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, using mine deployment, vessel attacks, and passage fee demands.

US F-15E Shot Down Over Iran, A-10 Warthog Downed Near Strait of Hormuz

Two U.S. military aircraft were lost in the Iran-Hormuz theater: an Air Force F-15E was shot down over Iran and an A-10 Warthog went down near the Strait of Hormuz, with its pilot rescued. Trump's national security team assembled in emergency session at the White House.

Iran Rejects U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Talks in Islamabad

Iran formally refused to engage U.S. negotiators in Islamabad and declared Washington's terms unacceptable, effectively halting the Pakistan-led mediation track backed by Turkey and Egypt.

Iraqi PMF Forces Enter Iran's Khuzestan Province for Internal Security Deployment

At least 1,000 armed PMF fighters, including elements of Kata'ib Hezbollah, entered Iran's Khuzestan province via the Basra border and Shalamcheh crossing, deploying to Khorramshahr, Abadan, and Ahvaz with military vehicles and equipment.

US Intelligence Assessment: Iran Retains ~50% Strike Capability After 34 Days of US-Israeli Campaign

A US intelligence assessment assesses Iran retains approximately half its missile launchers and suicide drone stockpiles after over a month of intensive US-Israeli strikes.

UK Military Deployment to Gulf Following US-Israeli Strikes on Iran

Following US-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in late February, Iran attacked Gulf infrastructure and disrupted Strait of Hormuz shipping, triggering a UK defensive military response.

U.S. Fighter Jet Shot Down Over Iran

An American fighter aircraft was shot down over Iranian territory, constituting the first such known loss since the conflict began. Iran has activated a civilian-military search effort to capture or kill surviving crew, raising the prospect of U.S. prisoners of war inside Iran.

US-Israeli Strikes Destroy 70% of Iran's Steel Production Capacity

Multiple waves of US and Israeli airstrikes have disabled Iran's two largest steel plants, with Netanyahu claiming 70 percent of Iranian steel production capacity has been destroyed. Steel is a dual-use strategic material essential to Iran's missile, drone, and shipbuilding programs.

US Destroys Iran's B1 Tehran-Karaj Highway Bridge

US forces destroyed the B1 highway bridge connecting Tehran to Karaj, Iran's two most populous urban centers, killing eight and injuring 95. President Trump publicly celebrated the strike and threatened further attacks on civilian infrastructure including desalination plants.

U.S. Missile Strike on Minab Elementary School

Multiple U.S. missiles struck the Shajareh Tayyebeh elementary school in Minab, southern Iran, killing an indeterminate number of children and teachers.

US-Iran-Israel Infrastructure War Escalation with Hormuz Blockade

The US-Israeli-Iran war has escalated into systematic mutual infrastructure strikes targeting steel plants, bridges, power grids, refineries, and desalination complexes across the region. Iran has virtually closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking approximately 20 percent of global oil and gas transit.

US-Israel Strikes on Iranian Medical and Public Health Infrastructure

Since February 28, US and Israeli forces have conducted repeated strikes on Iranian healthcare infrastructure, including the Pasteur Institute (a century-old vaccine and infectious disease research centre), a major pharmaceutical manufacturer, multiple hospitals, and a Red Crescent warehouse.

Iran-Israel Missile Exchange and U.S. Infrastructure Threat Escalation

Iran launched a new missile salvo against Israel on April 3, 2026, with Israeli air defenses activated in response. Simultaneously, U.S. President Trump publicly warned that U.S. forces had yet to begin destroying Iran's remaining infrastructure, naming bridges and energy assets as targets.

IRGC Claims Downing of US F-35 Launched from RAF Lakenheath

Iran's IRGC claimed its air defenses shot down a US F-35 over central Iran, identifying the aircraft by tail code as belonging to the 493rd Fighter Squadron based at RAF Lakenheath, Suffolk. The Pentagon had not confirmed or denied the claim at time of publication.

IRGC Launches Child Recruitment Campaign Amid US-Israel War

The IRGC formally announced a recruitment drive targeting Iranians aged 12 and above as volunteer fighters, operationalizing children into checkpoints, patrols, and intelligence tasks during active US-Israeli strike campaigns.

Iran-Linked Factions Escalate Attacks Across Iraq Amid US-Israeli War on Iran

Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups under the Islamic Resistance in Iraq umbrella have launched sustained drone and missile attacks on US military and commercial targets across Iraq, including in Erbil, Baghdad, and Basra, prompting US and Israeli retaliatory strikes on PMU positions.

Joint US-Israeli Military Operation Against Iran and Succession of Mojtaba Khamenei

A joint American-Israeli military operation has been targeting Iran's coercive apparatus — IRGC commanders, missile sites, and military installations — for approximately three weeks.

PMF Fragmentation and Intra-State Security Breakdown in Iraq

Iran-aligned factions within Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are attacking Iraqi state institutions — including the National Intelligence Service and Counter-Terrorism Service — while also targeting foreign diplomatic and military facilities and kidnapping an American journalist.

Houthis Launch Ballistic Missiles at Southern Israel, Enter Iran-Led Regional War

On March 28, 2026, the Houthis (Ansar Allah) launched two ballistic missiles at southern Israel, both intercepted, formally entering the active theater of Iran's regional war against the US and Israel.

USS Gerald R. Ford Rejoins Operation Epic Fury; Three-Carrier Deployment Established

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is returning to Operation Epic Fury in the Eastern Mediterranean following a five-day maintenance and liberty port visit in Split, Croatia, after a non-combat fire in its laundry spaces.

US-Israeli Air Campaign Degrades Iranian Conventional Military While Asymmetric Capacity Persists

A sustained US-Israeli air campaign launched February 28 has struck over 13,000 targets in Iran, killing Supreme Leader Khamenei and much of the senior leadership, and destroying an estimated 80% of Iranian air defense systems.

US-Israel-Iran War: Infrastructure Targeting Phase and Strait of Hormuz Blockade

US and Israeli forces have degraded approximately 70 percent of Iran's steel production capacity and struck its tallest bridge, while Iran has effectively blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off roughly one-fifth of global oil and gas transit.

F-15E Strike Eagle Downed Over Iran in First US Combat Aircraft Loss to Hostile Fire

An F-15E Strike Eagle — a two-seat aircraft — was shot down over Iran, marking the first confirmed loss of a US warplane to hostile fire in the US-Iran war that began February 28. One crew member was recovered; the second remained missing with Iran actively searching to capture them.

Emergence of the Global Missile War Era: Iran, Ukraine, and South Asia Conflicts

Concurrent missile conflicts across the Middle East, Europe, and South Asia — involving the US, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine, India, and Pakistan — mark a structural inflection in warfare where precision strike capability has proliferated to the point that even middling powers can hold great-power assets at risk.

Syrian Transitional Government Offensive Against SDF Triggers IS Containment Collapse

Ahmad al Sharaa launched a military offensive against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in January 2025, triggering Arab tribal defections and the loss of approximately 80 percent of SDF-held territory.

U.S.-Israeli War on Iran Triggers Chinese Strategic Reassessment

A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has escalated into a regional conflict, threatening Strait of Hormuz transit and disrupting global energy markets.

US Third Carrier Group and Amphibious Forces Deployed to Gulf Amid Operation Epic Fury

The United States has deployed a third aircraft carrier (USS George HW Bush), two Amphibious Ready Groups, and two Marine Expeditionary Units (~4,700 Marines) to the Middle East, supplementing 50,000 already-stationed troops during the second month of 'Operation Epic Fury.' The USS Abraham Lincoln CSG is conducting daily combat sorties against Iranian targets.

U.S. Deliberates Military Extraction of Iran's HEU Stockpile Post-12-Day War

Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2024, an estimated 440kg of 60%-enriched uranium remains partially accessible at Isfahan and possibly Natanz.

US-Iran War Munitions Depletion Reaches Critical Threshold

Within the first 16 days of active US-Iran hostilities, the United States expended approximately 11,294 munitions at an estimated cost of $26 billion, including roughly 46% of its ATACMS inventory and 402 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors.

Trump Prime-Time Address on Iran War

One month into an active US war with Iran, President Trump is delivering a nationally televised address attempting to consolidate domestic political support for the conflict. The speech occurs against a backdrop of declining approval ratings, economic disruption, and diplomatic fallout.

U.S. Expends 850+ Tomahawk Missiles in Operation Epic Fury

In the first month of Operation Epic Fury, a joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, the United States fired at least 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles — the largest single-conflict expenditure on record.

Iranian Ballistic Missile Strike Destroys US E-3 Sentry AWACS at Prince Sultan Air Base

Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles, destroying a US E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft — valued at approximately $300 million and the first combat loss of the type — while damaging several additional military jets.

Trump Signals US Exit from Iran War, Shifts Hormuz Responsibility to Third Parties

Trump publicly declared US military objectives in Iran largely achieved and indicated a withdrawal within two to three weeks, framing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a problem for energy-dependent third parties — particularly China — rather than the US.

Trump Signals Iran War Exit While Hormuz Remains Closed

Trump announced a 2-3 week exit timeline from the Iran war, claiming nuclear objectives achieved and regime change accomplished, while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, a third carrier strike group deploys, and Iran's foreign minister denies meaningful negotiations.

European Allies Refuse US Military Assistance Requests for Iran War

European NATO members are declining US requests to redeploy Patriot air defense batteries to the Middle East in support of ongoing US-Israel military operations against Iran.

Iran De Facto Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Post-US-Israeli Strikes

Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran imposed a near-total de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz using missile and drone attacks on vessels, naval mining, and selective negotiated passage. Shipping traffic collapsed by approximately 70 percent initially, then nearly to zero.

Kidnapping of American Journalist in Baghdad

An American journalist was kidnapped from Saadoun Street in central Baghdad and transferred via two vehicles toward Babil province southwest of the capital. Iraqi security forces intercepted one vehicle, arresting one suspect, but the journalist was transferred to a second car that escaped.

Kidnapping of American Journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad

Freelance American journalist Shelly Renee Kittleson was abducted from a Baghdad street by multiple individuals, with U.S. officials attributing responsibility to Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-linked Iraqi militia.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Historic Energy Supply Disruption

Iranian attacks on regional energy infrastructure and restrictions on Strait of Hormuz shipping have removed over 12 million barrels of oil from global supply since the start of a U.S.-Israel war on Iran.

US-Israel War Against Iran: Multi-Front Regional Escalation

Following the US-Israeli assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei through coordinated airstrikes, a regional war has erupted spanning Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and multiple Gulf states.

US-Israel Military Operation Against Iran with IRGC Retaliation

The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against major Iranian cities including Tehran on February 28, triggering a 33-day near-total internet blackout across Iran.

Death of Ali Khamenei and Appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader

Ali Khamenei died on March 1, 2026, following a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike campaign that killed him alongside senior officials and massively degraded Iran's military, air defenses, missile production, and nuclear facilities.

US-Israeli Combined Force Degrades Iranian Missile, Command, and Proxy Infrastructure

The US-Israeli combined force has struck over 20 Iranian missile bases, causing severe damage to four major production sites (Khojir, Shahroud, Parchin, Hakimiyeh) and eliminating local IRGC commanders, reducing Iran's missile salvo rate to its lowest since the war's start.

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Collapse and Ras Laffan LNG Facility Attack

An Iranian attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility on March 18, 2025, combined with the broader collapse of Strait of Hormuz traffic to 5% of normal flows, has created the largest disruption to global oil and LNG supplies in modern history.

China-Pakistan Joint Ceasefire Proposal for Iran War

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar issued a five-point joint proposal in Beijing calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Iran war, protection of Strait of Hormuz shipping, and launch of peace talks.

Iran-US War: Diplomatic Signals Amid Continued Hormuz Closure and AWACS Loss

A five-week-old US-Iran war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering global energy supply disruptions, $4/gallon US gasoline, and significant inflation risk.

Iran Strikes Prince Sultan Air Base, Destroys U.S. Aircraft

Iranian ballistic missiles and drones struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, heavily damaging or destroying a U.S. E-3 AWACS radar aircraft and multiple KC-135 refueling tankers, wounding approximately twelve troops.

Trump Declares Iran Nuclear Threat Eliminated Despite Retained Fissile Stockpile

President Trump declared in the Oval Office that Iran's ability to build a nuclear weapon had been eliminated, despite no evidence that Iran's ~970 pounds of highly enriched uranium has been removed or destroyed.

Iran Establishes Effective Control Over Strait of Hormuz

Iran has achieved near-total operational control of the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of war with the US and Israel in late February 2025, reducing vessel transits by over 95%.

Netanyahu Passover Address Claims Systematic Defeat of Iran's Axis

Netanyahu delivered a televised national address framing the joint Israel-U.S. military campaign as having successfully dismantled Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile capability, proxy network, and senior leadership.

US-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran: Ceasefire Signaling and Strait of Hormuz Disengagement Declaration

The United States and Israel are conducting a combined military campaign described as 'systematically crushing' Iranian government capacity. Iran has signaled readiness for a ceasefire contingent on firm security guarantees against future strikes.

U.S.-Israeli Campaign Against Iran Triggers Strait of Hormuz Crisis and Third Islamic Republic Transition

Coordinated U.S.-Israeli airstrikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior Iranian military and political leaders, triggering a succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and a comprehensive Iranian asymmetric counteroffensive.

Iran-U.S. War Escalation: Hormuz Blockade and IRGC Corporate Target Threats

Iran's IRGC announced imminent strikes against 17 major U.S. corporations operating in the Middle East, including defense contractors and tech firms, in retaliation for U.S. military operations that have struck over 11,000 targets inside Iran.

US Military Denial of Lamerd Strike Attribution

A strike on a sports hall and residential area in Lamerd, Iran on 28 February killed approximately 15 civilians, including children, according to Iranian state media. The New York Times attributed the strike to a US Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), a short-range ballistic munition.

Iran Rejects Ceasefire Framework, Conditions Resolution on Guarantees and Compensation

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly rejected a ceasefire framing in favor of a full regional cessation of hostilities, while characterizing US-Iran contacts as informal message exchanges rather than negotiations.

Trump Declares Iran Nuclear Objective Achieved, Announces US Force Withdrawal

US President Trump announced American forces will withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks, asserting the campaign objective of preventing Iranian nuclear weapons capability has been achieved.

Kataib Hezbollah-Linked Kidnapping of US Journalist in Baghdad

American freelance journalist Shelly Kittleson was abducted in Baghdad by four men in civilian clothes with suspected ties to Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-aligned Iraqi militia. One suspect was apprehended by Iraqi security forces after a vehicle pursuit in eastern Baghdad.

US Operation Epic Fury Against Iran Collapses; Iran Retains Hormuz Control

The US military campaign against Iran (Operation Epic Fury, initiated 28 February 2025) has failed to achieve its stated objectives — regime change, unconditional surrender, nuclear programme destruction, and Hormuz clearance.

Kidnapping of American Journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad

American journalist Shelly Kittleson, contributing to Al-Monitor, was abducted in Baghdad by four men in civilian clothes following a car chase. The Iraqi Interior Ministry confirmed one arrest and ongoing efforts to free her. The U.S.

Trump Deploys Troops to Middle East, Considers Kharg Island Seizure

President Trump has deployed thousands of US troops to the Middle East region amid tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, while openly discussing seizure of Iran's Kharg Island — the hub for approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports.

Kataib Hezbollah Kidnapping of American Journalist in Baghdad

Kataib Hezbollah allegedly abducted American freelance journalist Shelly Kittelson in Baghdad, marking the group's second known kidnapping of a Western national following the 2023 abduction of Princeton graduate student Elizabeth Tsurkov.

Kidnapping of U.S. Journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad

Freelance U.S. journalist Shelly Kittleson was abducted from Saadoun Street in central Baghdad and transported toward Babil province southwest of the capital.

IRGC Issues Threat Against US Corporate Infrastructure in the Gulf

The IRGC publicly listed 18 US technology and manufacturing companies operating in the Gulf — including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, and Boeing — threatening strikes against them in retaliation for continued US military operations against Iran.

US Military Escalation Against Iran Accelerates China's Structural Power Position

US military engagement against Iran, framed as degrading a pillar of Chinese-Russian Eurasian influence, is assessed as structurally counterproductive.

UK Deploys Additional Air Defence Systems to Gulf States

The UK is deploying Sky Sabre missile defence to Saudi Arabia, Lightweight Multirole Missile launchers to Bahrain, Rapid Sentry systems to Kuwait, and extending Typhoon jet deployments in Qatar. These deployments integrate into host-nation and regional air defence architectures.

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Disrupts Global Energy Flows and Compounds China's Economic Crisis

The United States and Israel launched coordinated missile strikes against Iran on February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering an ongoing conflict that has partially closed the Strait of Hormuz.

Hegseth Acknowledges Russo-Chinese Intelligence Support to Iran, Signals US Response

US Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed at a Pentagon briefing that Russia and China are actively providing Iran with intelligence on US troop movements, and stated the US is 'addressing it.' This represents a significant trilateral intelligence-sharing challenge to US operational security in the Persian Gulf theater.

IRGC Initiates Child Recruitment Drive Amid Wartime Manpower Shortage

Iran's IRGC formally announced recruitment of volunteers from age 12 into operational, security, intelligence patrol, and logistics roles following the outbreak of hostilities with the US and Israel on 28 February 2025.

US-Iran Conflict: Military Buildup, Negotiation Stall, and Strait of Hormuz Contingency Planning

The United States is engaged in a 10-day pause in strikes on Iran following significant degradation of Iranian military capabilities, while simultaneously building up military forces in the Middle East.

US Fires 850+ Tomahawk Missiles at Iran in Four-Week Campaign

The United States fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran within four weeks, with the bulk expended in the opening days of the operation. This volume substantially exceeds all prior post-Cold War regional operations combined.

IRGC Threatens US Tech Companies as Legitimate Military Targets

Iran's IRGC issued a conditional threat to strike more than 15 US technology companies operating in the region, designating firms involved in AI and ICT-enabled targeting as legitimate military targets.

Iraq Subjected to Dual-Front Strikes as U.S.-Iran War Expands

Since February 28, Iraq has been struck by both U.S.-Israeli forces targeting Iran-backed militias and by Iran and its proxies targeting U.S. bases, Kurdish areas, oil infrastructure, and diplomatic missions. No other country in the conflict has been hit from both sides simultaneously.

Regional War Spillover Destabilizes Iraq's Multialignment Posture

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has shattered Iraq's years-long multialignment strategy, triggering militia attacks on U.S. bases, Iranian strikes on Iraqi Kurdistan, and U.S. retaliatory strikes on PMF-affiliated infrastructure including Iraqi military sites.

Death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Succession Crisis

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died on March 1, 2026, following U.S. and Israeli strikes in February 2026 that killed him and other senior officials while massively degrading Iran's military, nuclear, and security apparatus.

Iran Attacks Saudi Arabia and Gulf States During US-Iran War

Since the outbreak of hostilities, Iran has launched over 5,000 drones and missiles at Gulf Arab states including Saudi Arabia, striking oil fields, refineries, the Riyadh Diplomatic Quarter, and US military infrastructure.

Kataib Hezbollah Abduction of American Journalist in Baghdad

Freelance American journalist Shelly Kittleson was abducted by individuals linked to Kataib Hezbollah on a busy central Baghdad street, transported in a two-car convoy, and retained despite a vehicle chase that resulted in one suspect's arrest.

U.S.-Israel Strikes Kill Khamenei, Trigger Iranian Leadership Succession Amid Ongoing War

Beginning February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and multiple senior officials, with Mojtaba Khamenei subsequently installed as the new supreme leader by a clerical council.

Trump Signals US Military Exit from Iran Within 2-3 Weeks

President Trump publicly declared US military objectives in Iran largely achieved — specifically nuclear capability denial and effective regime change — and indicated a withdrawal within two to three weeks regardless of a formal deal.

Regional Iran War Spillover into Iraq

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has drawn Iraq into active conflict despite Baghdad's sustained neutrality effort. Pro-Iranian PMF factions have launched hundreds of drone and rocket attacks on U.S. bases and the Baghdad embassy; the U.S. has struck PMF infrastructure and commanders in Iraq.

Iran Strikes Kuwaiti Oil Tanker Near Dubai Amid Ongoing US-Israel Campaign

Iran attacked the fully laden Kuwaiti crude carrier Al-Salmi near Dubai, marking one of the most significant vessel strikes since the US-Israel bombing campaign began over a month ago.

Iran Downs 146th US MQ-9 Drone Near Isfahan

Iran's air defence units claimed the interception and destruction of a US MQ-9 Reaper drone near Isfahan, marking what Iranian officials describe as the 146th drone shot down during the conflict. The MQ-9 is a dual-use surveillance and strike platform valued at approximately $30 million per unit.

Gulf States Lobby Trump to Escalate and Extend US-Israeli War Against Iran

Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain are privately urging the Trump administration not to end the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran until Iranian leadership is fundamentally altered or its military capabilities — including nuclear program, ballistic missiles, proxy networks, and Hormuz control — are neutralized.

US-Israel Strike Campaign Against Iran Enters Day 32 With Escalating Coercion

US and Israeli air strikes continue against Iranian territory including Tehran and Isfahan on the 32nd day of active conflict. Secretary of State Rubio confirmed back-channel communications via intermediaries are active, framing resolution as achievable within weeks.

Trump Threatens Kharg Island Seizure Amid Active US-Iran Military Conflict

President Trump has publicly threatened to deploy US ground forces to seize Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran's oil exports pass, as leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate.

U.S.-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Second Month with Ground Invasion Under Consideration

A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched February 28, has entered its second month with no resolution. Iran has sustained retaliatory strikes on U.S. Gulf bases, including damage to an E-3 Sentry AWACS and KC-135 tankers at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

US-Iran War: Trump Administration Seeks Arab Gulf State War Cost-Sharing

The Trump administration publicly signaled intent to demand Arab states fund US military operations against Iran, mirroring the 1990-91 Gulf War cost-sharing model.

Drone Attacks on Syrian Army and SDF-US Base Near Iraqi Border

Iran-aligned factions in Iraq launched drone attacks against Syrian army bases near the Iraqi border and a northeast Syrian base hosting US forces. Syria's army intercepted most drones but acknowledged assessing response options, signaling potential escalatory pressure.

PMF Paramilitary Convoy Enters Iran Under Humanitarian Cover

Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) entered Iran via the Shalamcheh border crossing in a convoy framed publicly as a humanitarian aid mission carrying food and medical supplies.

Iraqi PMF Convoy Enters Iran Amid Active US-Israel Military Campaign

A convoy of Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) entered Iran via the Shalamcheh border crossing, officially framed as a humanitarian aid mission carrying 70 tonnes of food and medical supplies.

US Military Buildup and Planned Limited Ground Operations Against Iran

The US has deployed approximately 7,000 additional troops to the Middle East since the start of the Iran war, with the Pentagon considering a further 10,000.

Iran-Aligned Militia Drone Attack on Syrian Bases Near Iraqi Border

Unidentified actors launched a large-scale drone attack on multiple Syrian military bases near the Iraqi border, with Syria claiming most UAVs were intercepted. Simultaneously, Syria disclosed the discovery of Hezbollah smuggling tunnels on the Lebanese border.

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran — One-Month Assessment

One month into a joint U.S.-Israeli military assault on Iran, significant tactical damage has been inflicted — including the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei, destruction of Iran's air force and navy, and degradation of its missile and nuclear programs — yet Iran's regime has survived, maintained Hormuz disruption, and imposed severe global economic costs.

IRGC-Bonyad Patronage Complex Sustains Regime Cohesion Amid Israeli-U.S. Military Campaign

Despite a sustained Israeli and American air campaign degrading Iran's military leadership and infrastructure, the regime's economic patronage network — anchored in the IRGC's quasi-corporate role and tax-exempt religious foundations — continues to bind millions of loyalists through material incentives.

US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Fifth Week with Multi-Theater Escalation

US-Israeli forces have conducted sustained strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, weapons development sites, educational facilities, and residential areas, killing over 2,076 Iranians including 216 children.

US-Israeli War Against Iran: Power Infrastructure Strikes and Gulf Escalation

Airstrikes knocked out electricity to parts of Tehran and surrounding regions, targeting power infrastructure.

US-Israel Military Coordination Meeting on Iran Campaign

CENTCOM chief Admiral Cooper and IDF Chief of Staff Zamir met in Israel to coordinate ongoing operations targeting Iran's military-industrial capacity, following a joint US-Israel strike campaign initiated February 28.

U.S.-Iran Armed Conflict Week Five: Airstrikes on Tehran and Strait of Hormuz Closure

U.S. airstrikes continue against Tehran targets as the bilateral conflict extends into its fifth week, with ground troop deployment now under active consideration. Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, triggering an oil price surge and significant disruption to global energy markets.

Pakistan Publicly Announces US-Iran Mediation Role

Pakistan formally disclosed its backchannel mediation role between the United States and Iran, with Foreign Minister Dar claiming bilateral confidence from both parties.

Shahed Drone Strike Kills US Soldiers at Kuwait Military Operations Center

An Iranian-designed Shahed drone struck a US military operations center in Kuwait, killing six American soldiers during the first week of a US-Israeli military confrontation with Iran.

Iran Sustains Multi-Theater Strike Campaign Amid U.S.-Israeli Military Pressure

Iran has continued launching ballistic missiles and Shahed drones against Israel, U.S. military installations in Saudi Arabia, and Gulf state infrastructure despite a months-long U.S.-Israeli air campaign.

U.S. Builds Toward 17,000 Ground Troops on Iran's Periphery

The U.S. is considering deploying an additional 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East, supplementing approximately 7,000 already ordered to the region, as part of a coercive posture against Iran during an active conflict.

Trump Pursuit of Post-Khamenei Authoritarian Settlement in Iran

Following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the context of a U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, President Trump articulated a preference for a Venezuela-style leadership replacement — substituting one authoritarian figure with a more transactional one — and expressed desire to be involved in selecting Khamenei's successor.

U.S.-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran: Four-Week Assessment

After approximately four weeks of active U.S.-Israel military strikes, two-thirds of Iran's missile, drone, and naval production facilities have been destroyed or damaged. Israel killed IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri and Iran's intelligence chief in decapitation strikes.

U.S.-Israeli Joint Military Operation Against Iran

A joint U.S.-Israeli military operation has been underway for over three weeks, employing airstrikes that have eliminated specific Iranian leaders, degraded missile and naval assets, but failed to achieve regime change or destroy Iran's nuclear knowledge base.

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Diplomacy Amid Active War

While an active military conflict is underway between the U.S. and Iran, Turkish, Egyptian, and Pakistani mediators are pushing for direct talks, with both sides publicly presenting maximalist demands that exceed pre-war positions.

U.S.-Israel War Against Iran Derails American Asia Pivot

The Trump administration initiated military operations against Iran on February 28, 2026, triggering a sustained conflict requiring a $200 billion Pentagon supplemental budget request.