Iraq-Iran Influence Competition

U.S.-Backed Ali Al Zaidi Emerges as Likely Iraqi Prime Minister

Ali Al Zaidi, an Iraqi businessman with limited political profile, has emerged as the frontrunner for Iraq's prime ministership with explicit backing from President Trump, who has reportedly invited him to Washington.

Israel Establishes Military Outpost in Iraqi Desert to Support Iran Air Campaign

Israel set up a military outpost in the Iraqi desert to provide logistical and operational support for its air campaign against Iran.

Iran Issues Hormuz Coercion Warning to Gulf States Amid Naval Clashes

Iran's military spokesman explicitly threatened Gulf states with 'severe consequences' for complying with US sanctions, leveraging Iran's effective control over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas flows.

Mojtaba Khamenei Incapacitated Following February Airstrike

Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran's new Supreme Leader, was severely injured in a February airstrike that also killed his wife, son, and his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His incapacitation has left Iran without effective supreme leadership during active U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations.

Israel Operates Clandestine Forward Base in Iraqi Desert, Strikes Iraqi Forces

Israel secretly established a forward operating base in western Iraq to support its air campaign against Iran, housing special forces and search-and-rescue teams with U.S. knowledge.

Gulf Arab States Express Alarm Over U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Security Gaps

Arab Gulf states, led primarily by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have signaled deep concern that ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations will produce a deal that constrains Iran's nuclear program without addressing its ballistic missile capabilities or proxy network sponsorship.

Pakistan Emerges as West Asian Security Stabilizer and U.S.-Iran Mediator

Following its May 2025 military conflict with India, Pakistan signed a NATO-like mutual defense pact with Saudi Arabia and joined the Trump administration's Gaza Peace Board in January 2026.

Trump Signs Revised National Counterterrorism Strategy

President Trump signed a new national counterterrorism strategy that reorients U.S. counterterrorism priorities away from jihadist and far-right threats toward drug cartels in the Western Hemisphere and vaguely defined left-wing extremist groups.

Saudi Arabia Denies U.S. Basing and Overflight Access, Curtailing Hormuz Mission

Saudi Arabia denied the United States base and overflight access, directly contributing to Trump ending a U.S. military mission in the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week.

U.S. Treasury Sanctions Iraqi Deputy Oil Minister for Iran Sanctions Evasion

The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned Iraq's Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly for authorizing the blending of Iranian crude with Iraqi oil to circumvent international sanctions, generating several million dollars per day in illicit revenue.

Iran Regime Recaptures Urban Public Space Under Wartime Mobilization

Since the onset of the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, the Islamic Republic has deployed Basij networks, IRGC-affiliated groups, and loyalist civilian formations into urban public spaces across Tehran and major cities, reversing a decade-long trend of civilian social encroachment on regime-controlled norms.

U.S.-Iran Hormuz War Ceasefire Diplomacy and Blockade Enforcement

The United States paused its active naval escort mission in the Strait of Hormuz at Pakistan's request while continuing a blockade of Iranian ports, with a U.S. Navy F/A-18 disabling an Iranian tanker attempting to breach it.

Operation Epic Fury: U.S. Military Campaign Against Iran

The United States launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran approximately two months prior to publication, at a cost the Pentagon estimates at $25–50 billion through end of April 2025.

Iranian Strike Campaign Damages 228+ Structures at U.S. Middle East Bases

Satellite imagery analysis documents at least 228 structures or equipment items damaged or destroyed at U.S. military installations across the Middle East since October 2023, attributable to Iranian strikes or Iranian-backed proxy attacks.

Iraq Political Transition Amid Militia-Driven Sovereignty Crisis

Iraq elected a new president (Nizar Amidi, PUK) and named a prime minister-designate (Ali al-Zaidi) after missing constitutional deadlines by months, while simultaneously confronting a sovereignty crisis in which Iran-aligned militias launched attacks on U.S., Gulf, and Iraqi targets from Iraqi soil.

Iran Reframes Strategic Victory as Regime Survival Under Military Pressure

Under sustained U.S. and Israeli military pressure, including direct strikes on nuclear facilities and command infrastructure, Iran's senior leadership has publicly redefined victory as survival and endurance rather than regional transformation or the elimination of adversaries.

U.S. Launches 'Project Freedom' Hormuz Commercial Shipping Escort Initiative

President Trump announced a U.S. military escort program for commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, framing it as a response to ships being 'trapped' by the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.

U.S. Forces Destroy Iranian Boats, Intercept Missiles in Strait of Hormuz Operation

U.S. naval forces destroyed six Iranian small boats and intercepted Iranian cruise missiles and drones while conducting operations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping.

ASEAN Summit Convenes Amid Iran War Economic Fallout

ASEAN heads of government convened in Cebu, Philippines, with the economic fallout of an ongoing Iran war dominating the agenda, as oil prices breached $100 per barrel and inflation hit Vietnam and the Philippines hardest.

Iran Drone and Missile Strike on Fujairah Oil Port and Hormuz Tanker

Iran struck the UAE port of Fujairah with drones and launched missiles intercepted by UAE air defenses, while also hitting an ADNOC-affiliated tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran Leadership Consolidation Under Wartime Pressure

Reporting from multiple trips to Tehran indicates that Iran's leadership has consolidated rather than fractured under sustained U.S. and Israeli military pressure and prolonged economic strain.

Iran Retaliatory Strikes on Gulf States Following U.S.-Israeli Attack on Iran

Following U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran beginning February 28, 2025, Iran retaliated by striking airports, seaports, oil installations, and desalination plants across Gulf Arab states and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, fully blocking exports from Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar while impeding those of Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

U.S. Emergency Arms Sales to Gulf Partners and Israel Post-Iran War

The Trump administration invoked emergency authority for the third time to authorize $8.6 billion in arms transfers to Israel, Qatar, UAE, and Kuwait, bypassing standard congressional review.

Iran Large-Scale Drone and Missile Campaign Against Arab Neighbors

Iran launched approximately ten thousand drones and missiles against Arab neighbors in a compressed timeframe, representing a qualitative escalation beyond previous proxy-mediated coercion. The author frames this as a threshold event that invalidates the prior regional deterrence equilibrium.

Iraq Coordination Framework Nominates Ali al-Zaidi as Prime Minister

The Coordination Framework, Iraq's dominant Shia political coalition, nominated businessman Ali al-Zaidi as prime minister-designate following months of post-election gridlock.

Killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and Subsequent Cease-Fire

The article posits a scenario in which Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has been killed, triggering violent protests at U.S. diplomatic missions in Karachi and Baghdad and mass demonstrations across the Muslim world.

UAE Exits OPEC, Deploys Israeli Iron Dome, Deepens Israel-US Security Integration

The UAE has withdrawn from OPEC, accepted deployment of Israeli Iron Dome batteries operated by Israeli troops on its soil, and moved to sanction Iranian financial access — a cluster of decisions that collectively reorient UAE strategic alignment away from Arab collective frameworks and toward a bilateral Israel-US security architecture.

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Kills Khamenei, Consolidates IRGC Hard-Line Rule

U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated airstrikes against Iran in late February 2026, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior regime figures.

UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC

The UAE announced its withdrawal from OPEC, effective Friday, citing unfair quota allocations that have constrained its crude export capacity.

UAE Announces Withdrawal from OPEC

The UAE formally announced its exit from OPEC, effective next month, citing strategic misalignment with the cartel's quota regime and a desire to accelerate independent energy production.

Iran's Post-War Leadership Consolidation Under Mojtaba Khamenei

Following the death of Ali Khamenei and a wartime succession, Mojtaba Khamenei has consolidated authority through networked coordination among the IRGC, clerical institutions, maddahan networks, and media actors rather than through a visible hierarchical structure.

Iraq Names Compromise Prime Minister-Designate Under U.S.-Iran Pressure

Iraq's president designated Ali al-Zaidi, a businessman with no public political profile, as prime minister-designate after U.S. coercive pressure — including suspension of security assistance and dollar transfers — forced the withdrawal of Iran-aligned candidates al-Maliki and al-Sudani.

Turkey Maintains Neutrality Amid U.S.-Israeli War on Iran

Turkey has refused to support the U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran or permit use of its airspace for strikes, while simultaneously backing Pakistani-mediated negotiations and urging Washington toward a negotiated settlement.

Hormuz Chokepoint Crisis and Western Energy Corridor Strategy Debate

Iran's effective leverage over the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20 million barrels per day of crude, condensate, and gas transit — has created a structural energy security crisis for the West with no near-term military or diplomatic resolution in sight.

Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks Stall Amid Intra-Regime Factional Conflict

The first round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Pakistan ended inconclusively, with Iran becoming vague when pressed on specifics.

U.S. Sanctions Iran Shadow Fleet and Chinese Teapot Refinery

The U.S. Treasury designated 40 shipping firms and vessels comprising part of Iran's shadow tanker fleet, alongside Hengli Petrochemical Refinery — China's second-largest independent refinery and a major Iranian crude customer.

Gulf State Internal Crackdowns Amid U.S.-Israeli War on Iran

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has triggered cascading domestic security responses across GCC states, including mass arrests for filming strike damage, suppression of social media dissent, and sectarian-coded crackdowns in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.

Trump Indefinitely Extends U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Amid Hormuz Stalemate

President Trump indefinitely extended the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, citing fractured Iranian leadership, after peace talks stalled with no overlap between the two sides' demands.

Dual Blockade Standoff at Strait of Hormuz

Following a U.S.-Iran cease-fire, both powers are asserting competing coercive control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's IRGC is demanding passage authorization for all vessels and has seized two cargo ships, while reportedly mining main channels and positioning fighters in sea caves. The U.S.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Structural Gulf Oil Production Degradation

A U.S.-Iran tanker war has effectively closed the Persian Gulf to oil traffic, causing Gulf producers to shut in fields under emergency conditions that have damaged wells, depleted reservoir pressure, and dispersed tanker fleets globally.

Saudi Arabia Strategic Paralysis During U.S.-Israel-Iran War

Saudi Arabia has adopted a posture of strategic ambiguity during the ongoing U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran (Operation Epic Fury), absorbing Iranian and Iraqi proxy attacks while declining to retaliate, publicly denying support for the war despite reported private lobbying of Trump to attack Iran, and cutting Vision 2030 project timelines due to economic pressure.

Pope Leo XIV Publicly Rebukes Trump Over Iran War Rhetoric

Pope Leo XIV, the first American-born pope, directly addressed President Trump by name and called his apocalyptic Iran war rhetoric 'unacceptable,' urging U.S. citizens to contact congressional representatives — an unprecedented papal intervention in U.S. domestic political process.

Gulf Sovereign Wealth Fund Capital Outflows at Risk from Iran War Disruption

The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure have placed Gulf sovereign wealth fund capital flows — estimated at over $5 trillion in assets under management — under acute structural pressure.

U.S.-Iran War Triggers Hormuz Disruption and Structural Energy Realignment

An ongoing U.S.-Iran war has produced intermittent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting global energy flows and supply chains with effects the author argues will persist far longer than the Trump administration anticipated.

U.S.-Iran Islamabad Nuclear Talks Delayed Amid Escalatory Ultimatum

The United States delayed a new round of talks with Iran in Islamabad while extending a military ultimatum, using coercive pressure to force clearer Iranian concessions.

Sullivan Foreign Affairs Interview on U.S. Strategic Posture

Former U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan published a Foreign Affairs essay and gave an accompanying interview assessing the structural challenges to American power across multiple simultaneous crisis theaters.

U.S. Suspends Dollar Shipments and Security Cooperation with Iraq Over Iranian Militia Pressure

The U.S. Treasury blocked a nearly $500 million dollar cargo shipment — the second such delay since the Iran war began in late February 2025 — representing proceeds from Iraqi oil sales held at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Stalls, Asian Allies Reassess Strategic Exposure

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire is described as near collapse, with negotiations stalled and no clear resolution pathway. Across Asia, U.S. allies, Central Asian energy exporters, and South Asian states are recalibrating their strategic postures in response to perceived American unpredictability.

Iran Withdraws Delegation from Islamabad Nuclear Talks, Stalling Second Round

Iran reversed its commitment to send a negotiating delegation to Islamabad for a second round of US-Iran talks, leaving US envoys including VP Vance grounded and the talks in limbo. Tehran cited the ongoing US naval blockade of its ports as an act of war incompatible with cease-fire conditions.

U.S.-Iran Pakistan-Mediated Nuclear Talks, Round Two

A second round of Pakistan-mediated U.S.-Iran nuclear talks is expected in Islamabad, with a two-week ceasefire expiring Wednesday.

United States Suspends Security Cooperation With Iraq

The United States halted security cooperation and funding for Iraq's security services after drone and militia attacks on U.S. interests in Baghdad and northern Iraq. The move is intended to pressure Baghdad to dismantle or restrain Iran-aligned militias embedded in Iraq's political-security system.

Iran-Backed Iraqi Militia Drone Campaign Against Gulf States

Iraqi Shia militias, increasingly integrated into Iran's IRGC command structure, launched hundreds of explosive drones against Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain over five weeks, striking energy infrastructure including the Yanbu refinery and Eastern Province oil fields.

NATO Ankara Summit Agenda Push for European Burden-Shifting

The article outlines a coordinated policy push ahead of the 2026 NATO Summit to formalize a rebalancing of alliance responsibilities from the United States toward European allies.

U.S.-Iran Pakistan Talks Under Hormuz Coercion

The United States is preparing a new round of talks with Iran in Pakistan while simultaneously enforcing a maritime blockade, threatening airstrikes, and demanding reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and long-term limits on uranium enrichment.

UAE Seeks U.S. Dollar Backstop Amid Iran War Disruption

The UAE opened preliminary talks with U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve officials about a possible dollar swap line or alternative financial backstop as war with Iran disrupted oil exports, damaged infrastructure, and threatened reserve stability.

United States and Iran Enter Cease-Fire Endgame After Mutual Escalation

The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire after both sides concluded that continued escalation would generate disproportionate costs and unacceptable risks.

U.S. Maintains Iran Port Blockade Amid Conditional Hormuz Reopening Signal

Iran publicly signaled that the Strait of Hormuz was open, apparently to create negotiating space with Washington, but U.S. authorities kept blockade pressure on Iranian ports and expanded enforcement against Iran-linked shipping.

Strait of Hormuz Reopens Under Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Framework

The United States and Iran publicly signaled the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz while indicating movement toward a temporary framework for broader peace talks.

Europe Advances Independent Strait of Hormuz Escort Mission

France, Britain, Germany, Italy and other partners are planning a multinational naval mission to escort shipping and potentially clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

United States Expands Global Interdiction of Iran-Linked Shipping

The United States is preparing to board and seize Iran-linked tankers and commercial vessels in international waters, extending enforcement beyond the Persian Gulf into a global maritime pressure campaign.

Iran Reimposes Strait of Hormuz Restrictions and IRGC Fires on Tanker

Iran restored restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz after a brief reopening and signaled that transit would remain constrained while US measures against Iranian shipping continued.

IRGC Navy Retains Strait of Hormuz Disruption Capacity After U.S.-Israeli Strikes

U.S. and Israeli attacks reportedly devastated Iran’s regular navy and destroyed roughly half of the IRGC Navy’s fast attack boats, but the Guards’ dispersed asymmetric maritime network remains operational.

Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz on Pre-Approved Route Amid Cease-Fire

Iran's decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz only for pre-approved shipping routes preserves its ability to selectively constrain maritime traffic rather than relinquishing leverage.

Iran Adopts Regionalized Escalation and Strait of Hormuz Closure Strategy

Following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran shifted from a primarily retaliatory deterrence model to a broader coercive strategy that regionalizes conflict through attacks or threats against energy, financial, and transit infrastructure.

Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz Under Ongoing US Port Blockade

Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for shipping, while the United States kept its naval blockade on Iranian ports in place pending a political deal. The move temporarily reduces immediate market disruption, but leaves Washington exercising coercive control over Iran's maritime commerce.

Formation of Iranian Kurdish Militant Coalition for Potential Western Iran Offensive

A coalition of Iranian Kurdish armed factions was formed to coordinate potential operations in western Iran amid reported consideration of U.S. and Israeli support.

Iranian Minority Armed Factions Hesitate to Exploit U.S.-Israel Pressure

The article describes how U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran have opened a potential window for minority armed factions, especially Kurdish, Baloch, Ahwazi Arab, and MEK networks, to challenge Tehran.

Conditional Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz Amid Ongoing U.S. Blockade

The United States and Iran both declared the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial traffic after weeks of effective closure, but Tehran tied access to a cease-fire period while Washington said its naval blockade of Iranian ports would continue.

Basra Climate Degradation Deepens Afro-Iraqi Marginalization

The event is the cumulative intensification of climate stress and environmental degradation in Basra Governorate, especially Zubayr, under conditions of weak Iraqi state response.

U.S. Blockade of Iranian Ports After Failed Islamabad Talks

After talks in Islamabad broke down, the United States moved naval forces to block vessels leaving Iranian ports in order to pressure Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and abandon transit tolls.

U.S.-Iran Islamabad Peace Talks End Without Agreement

Senior U.S. and Iranian delegations met directly in Islamabad for the first in-person talks in a decade but failed to secure a settlement. The failure preserves a cease-fire while leaving core disputes over uranium enrichment, sanctions, and control of the Strait of Hormuz unresolved.

United States Expands Maritime and Financial Pressure on Iran

Washington is pairing fresh sanctions threats with a global maritime interdiction posture aimed at constraining Iranian exports and external support networks.

Hormuz Blockage Accelerates China-Centric Energy Transition

The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted hydrocarbon exports from the Gulf, forcing import-dependent states to adopt emergency conservation measures and accelerate renewable energy deployment.

U.S. Attack on Iran Triggers Hormuz Energy Shock

The article frames the U.S. decision to attack Iran as a coercive move that has contributed to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a resulting global energy crisis.

Khamenei Killing Catalyzes Bottom-Up Shiite Mobilization

The article describes how the killing of Iran's supreme leader, combined with expanded U.S. and Israeli strikes on Hezbollah-linked areas in Lebanon and PMF-linked infrastructure in Iraq, is transforming Shiite identity into a stronger mobilizing force.

Pakistan Entrenches Role in U.S.-Iran Mediation

Pakistan hosted senior U.S. and Iranian officials for their highest-level direct talks in decades and remained engaged afterward through continued shuttle diplomacy and support for a fragile cease-fire.

Iran Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Disrupts Global Oil Markets

Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz constrains a critical maritime chokepoint for global oil flows, raising prices worldwide.

Turkey-Led Regional Mediation Push in the U.S.-Israel War with Iran

Turkey is actively positioning itself as a mediator in the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, coordinating with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt to relay messages and contain escalation.

United States Tightens Maritime and Financial Pressure on Iran

The United States is intensifying coercive pressure on Iran through a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, planned resumption of sanctions waivers on Iranian oil, and warnings to financial institutions about exposure to Iran-linked actors.

Israel's Post-Oct. 7 Regional War Strategy Fails to Deliver Decisive Outcomes

Israel's effort to replace limited deterrence with a region-wide coercive strategy aimed at destroying Hamas, disarming Hezbollah, and collapsing or transforming Iran has not produced decisive political outcomes.

UNDP Warns Gulf War Shock Will Push 32 Million Into Poverty

The key signal in the discussion is UNDP's assessment that six weeks of war in the Gulf region could push 32 million people back into poverty, erasing prior development gains across fragile states.

Assessment of Iran's Regional Influence Network Under Conflict Pressure

The source is an analytical discussion rather than a report of a discrete operational event. Its relevance lies in evaluating whether Iran can continue converting formal state authority and proxy ties into practical regional influence as conflict pressures mount.

United States Imposes Naval Blockade on Iranian Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz

After failed senior-level talks in Pakistan, the United States imposed a naval blockade on ships departing Iranian ports through the Strait of Hormuz while the broader ceasefire formally remained in place.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Exposes Breakdown of U.S.-Led Economic Order

The article frames the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the downstream consequence of a U.S.- and Israel-led war against Iran, producing a major energy supply shock and revealing the inability of existing multilateral institutions to constrain the hegemon.

United States Announces Naval Blockade of Iranian Port Traffic via Hormuz Approaches

The United States announced that its navy would interdict ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, effectively imposing a naval blockade in response to Iran's continued de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran Demonstrates Strait of Hormuz Closure Leverage in U.S.-Iran War

Iran's wartime disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz created a new deterrent instrument after degradation of its proxy network, missile posture, and nuclear infrastructure.

United States Imposes Blockade on Iranian Ports in Strait of Hormuz

The United States began enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas linked to the Strait of Hormuz after failed talks with Tehran.

Iran Suffers Strategic Degradation Despite Hormuz Closure

The article assesses the net effects of the recent U.S.-Israeli campaign on Iran and concludes that Tehran's effective power has declined despite surviving the war and temporarily closing the Strait of Hormuz.

United States Announces Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to Pressure Iran

The United States announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz after talks with Iran in Islamabad failed to produce agreement on the nuclear issue.

U.S. Challenges Iranian Control of Strait of Hormuz During Islamabad Talks

The United States sent two destroyers through the Strait of Hormuz and announced a mine-clearing effort to contest Iran's de facto control of the waterway during active negotiations in Islamabad.

United States and Iran Agree to April 7 Cease-Fire

The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire after both sides concluded that further escalation would impose disproportionate costs without delivering decisive strategic gains.

United States Elevates Vice President to Lead Iran Talks in Islamabad

The United States assigned Vice President JD Vance to lead high-level negotiations with Iran in Islamabad, with Pakistan mediating and senior U.S. envoys present.

U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Talks Shift to Pakistan with Vance Added

Following an eleventh-hour two-week cease-fire, the United States and Iran are set to hold negotiations in Pakistan, with Vice President J.D. Vance joining or supplanting the administration's informal envoys.

Iran Consolidates Coercive Leverage Over Strait of Hormuz After Gulf Strikes

The text describes Iran using sustained missile and drone attacks against GCC energy and technology infrastructure while pairing coercion with cease-fire terms asserting coordinated passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran Adds Preconditions to Pakistan-Mediated U.S. Peace Talks

Iran publicly conditioned planned talks with the United States on a ceasefire in Lebanon and release of frozen Iranian assets, while signaling it would not relinquish claims tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump Issues Escalatory Ultimatum to Iran

The US president publicly threatened catastrophic destruction if Iran does not accept US demands, while senior US officials signaled additional coercive options remain available.

Pakistan-Brokered U.S.-Iran Two-Week Ceasefire Linked to Strait of Hormuz Reopening

A reported two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, with Israel also pausing strikes on Iran, creates a temporary de-escalation channel after six weeks of conflict.

Profile of Brett McGurk's Cross-Administration Influence on U.S. Middle East Policy

This is not a discrete operational event but an analytical account of how Brett McGurk shaped U.S. Middle East policy across Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Israel-Gaza, and Iran over two decades.

U.S.-Iran Two-Week Cease-Fire and Islamabad Talks Launch

The United States and Iran entered a two-week cease-fire intended to pause direct confrontation and create space for negotiations in Islamabad.

Hormuz Sulfur Shipping Disruption Exposes Energy Transition Chokepoint

Conflict-linked disruption around the Strait of Hormuz temporarily halted or constrained sulfur shipments that carry roughly half of global seaborne sulfur trade.

Russia Expands Limited Intelligence and Military Support to Iran During U.S.-Iran Conflict

The discussion indicates Russia is likely providing at least some intelligence support to Iran and has transferred improved drone know-how derived from earlier Iranian systems.

US-Iran Announce Two-Week Iran War Cease-Fire

The United States and Iran publicly announced a two-week cease-fire, creating the first formal pause in strikes since the war began on February 28.

U.S.-Israeli Campaign Targets Iran-Aligned Networks in Iraq

The United States and Israel expanded strikes from retaliation to a broader campaign aimed at decapitating and dismantling Iran-aligned armed networks in Iraq.

US-Iran-Israel Ceasefire Reopens Strait of Hormuz

The United States, Iran, and Israel announced a ceasefire that halted immediate reciprocal attacks and enabled the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after a period of disruption.

Iran Maintains Strait of Hormuz Transit Fee Regime After Ceasefire

Iran is described as continuing to impose de facto transit charges on some tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz after a ceasefire. This indicates Tehran is leveraging coercive control over a strategic chokepoint to generate revenue and test alternative payment rails outside the dollar system.

Trump Issues Ultimatum to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

The United States publicly threatened major strikes on Iranian infrastructure unless Tehran reopened the Strait of Hormuz by a fixed deadline. Iran's mocking response signaled continued defiance rather than de-escalation, indicating that U.S. coercive signaling had not yet compelled compliance.

Regional War Spillover Intensifies Pressure on Iraqi Sovereignty

Escalation between Iran, Israel, and the United States is pulling Iraq into the conflict despite Baghdad's formal neutrality.

Trump Threatens Massive Escalation Against Iran

Trump publicly threatened catastrophic destruction against Iran unless Tehran accepted US terms by a fixed deadline, signaling a higher coercive ceiling in the confrontation.

Iran Expands Gulf Retaliation Threats and Regional Strike Activity

Iran publicly added Saudi and Emirati energy infrastructure to its target set and regional missile-drone activity hit or threatened Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Israel and Gulf maritime infrastructure as US pressure intensified.

Trump Threatens Strikes on Iranian Civilian Power Infrastructure

The event is a US coercive threat to target Iranian power stations and bridges, paired with Iranian warnings of region-wide retaliation against energy and maritime infrastructure.

United States Escalates Coercive Ultimatum Over Strait of Hormuz

The United States escalated from diplomatic pressure to explicit threats of devastating strikes on Iranian infrastructure unless Tehran fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and reportedly struck military targets near Iran's main oil export hub.

U.S.-Israeli Escalation to Coerce Iran on Strait of Hormuz

The United States and Israel intensified strikes on Iranian transport, military, and petrochemical infrastructure to compel Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded by withdrawing from negotiations and launching missile attacks toward Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel.

Kataib Hezbollah Frees U.S. Journalist After Prisoner Exchange

Kataib Hezbollah released American journalist Shelly Kittleson after a week in captivity, reportedly in exchange for the release of detained militia members.

U.S.-Israeli Strikes on Iranian Civilian-Linked Infrastructure

The reported U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign hit Iranian infrastructure with both military and civilian functions, including desalination, oil, transport, medical, and educational facilities.

US Strike Disables Shahid Bagheri and Triggers Oil Spill Near Hara Reserve

A US airstrike disabled the Iranian drone carrier Shahid Bagheri in the Khuran Strait, leaving it grounded and leaking heavy fuel oil toward the Hara mangrove reserve near the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump Issues Deadline Threat Against Iranian Infrastructure and Hormuz Access

The U.S. president publicly threatened to destroy Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran does not accept U.S. terms and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by an April 7 deadline.

US-Iran Ceasefire Signaling Tied to Strait of Hormuz Reopening

Trump administration signals readiness for a ceasefire in the Iran war contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with VP Vance delivering an ultimatum through intermediaries threatening attacks on key Iranian infrastructure.

Trump Threatens Expanded U.S. Bombing of Iran

The U.S. president issued an explicit deadline-backed threat to expand bombing across Iranian critical infrastructure unless Tehran accepts U.S. terms.

Regional Preparation for Potential US Ground Incursion into Iran

The article describes a shift in regional threat calculations as US options toward Iran reportedly expand from airstrikes to possible covert raids or limited ground operations.

Iranian Kurdish Opposition Denies US Arms Transfer Claims

Public claims that the United States armed Iranian Kurdish opposition groups were denied by the principal Kurdish factions, which emphasized they had neither received weapons nor established such channels with Washington.

Trump Threatens Strikes on Iranian Infrastructure Over Strait of Hormuz

The U.S. president publicly threatened to strike Iranian power plants and bridges unless Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, signaling willingness to escalate from maritime coercion to strategic infrastructure targeting.

Iranian State Retains Internal Control After Five Weeks of U.S.-Israeli Strikes

Five weeks after the opening U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran still shows functioning state control along key internal corridors and in Tehran despite extensive bombardment.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Cripples Iraqi Oil Exports

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran has sharply reduced Iraq's oil exports and forced a major production cut across southern fields.

U.S.-Israel Divergence Complicates Termination of Iran War

The article assesses an emerging divergence between U.S. and Israeli war aims in the conflict with Iran.

Trump Escalates Coercive Threats Against Iran During Ongoing Bombing Campaign

The article describes a U.S. campaign of public threats and ongoing bombing against Iran, framed by President Trump as coercive pressure to force concessions.

Iran Signals Potential Houthi Closure of Bab al-Mandeb

Ali Akbar Velayati publicly warned that the 'Resistance front' could treat Bab al-Mandeb like Hormuz, signaling possible coordinated maritime coercion through Iran-aligned partners.

Pakistan Mediates Proposed US-Iran Ceasefire Linked to Strait of Hormuz Reopening

Pakistan and other mediators are shuttling proposals between the United States and Iran for either a short pause or a 45-day ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Perceived Israeli Overpromise Triggers Protracted Israel-Iran War Costs

The article describes a growing view inside the Trump administration that Israel's leadership overstated the ease and strategic payoff of a renewed war against Iran.

U.S. Iran Hostage Rescue Mission Aborted After Aircraft Failure

The United States inserted special operations forces into Iran to recover a stranded American specialist, demonstrating substantial long-range penetration capability and temporary tactical surprise.

Hamas Publicly Aligns with Iran Strikes and Calls for Regional Escalation

Hamas's Qassam Brigades used a formal public statement to endorse Iranian strikes on Israel, reject disarmament demands tied to ceasefire mediation, and call for attacks by Palestinians and allied resistance forces across the region.

Pakistan Mediates US-Iran De-escalation and Expands Gulf Security Role

Pakistan is portrayed as an active intermediary in the US-Iran crisis, relaying a US peace plan to Tehran, offering to host talks, and convening a quadrilateral meeting with Egypt, Turkiye, and Saudi Arabia.

Zarif Proposes Iran War De-escalation Roadmap

Mohammad Javad Zarif publicly proposed a negotiated framework to end the US-Israeli war on Iran, offering nuclear restrictions, international monitoring, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a mutual nonaggression pact in exchange for sanctions relief.

Iranian Drone Strikes Damage Kuwaiti Desalination and Power Infrastructure

Iranian drone attacks damaged two Kuwaiti power and desalination plants, disrupted generating units, and hit additional civilian and energy facilities across the Gulf.

Iran Strikes Gulf Civilian Infrastructure

Iran launched drone and missile attacks against infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Kuwait, with reported damage at civilian and industrial sites including the Borouge petrochemicals plant in Ruwais.

Iran Grants Iraq Exemption From Strait of Hormuz Transit Restrictions

Iran signaled that any transit restrictions it imposes in the Strait of Hormuz would not apply to Iraq, implying Tehran believes it can selectively regulate passage through the waterway. This is a coercive demonstration of exercised maritime influence rather than a purely rhetorical claim.

Iran Resists U.S. Coercive Air Campaign Despite Sustained Strikes

After five weeks of U.S.-led war against Iran, Tehran has not accepted U.S. demands despite more than 12,000 strikes and the killing of senior leaders. Iran's continued resistance, including downing a U.S.

Iran Downs Two U.S. Military Aircraft

Iranian fire brought down two U.S. military fixed-wing aircraft roughly one month into the war, with two pilots rescued and one still missing.

Iran Shoots Down U.S. F-15E Over Khuzestan

Iranian air defenses reportedly downed a U.S. F-15E operating over Khuzestan, directly contesting U.S. claims of air superiority.

Iran Downs Two U.S. Military Aircraft in Active Conflict Theater

Iran shot down two U.S. military aircraft on April 4, 2026 — an F-15E Strike Eagle over Iranian territory and an A-10 over the Persian Gulf — marking the first loss of U.S. aircraft in the conflict. One crew member was rescued, one remained missing.

Iran Sustains Strait of Hormuz Blockade as Primary Coercive Lever

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has effectively blocked commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz since February 28, using mine deployment, vessel attacks, and passage fee demands.

F-15E Strike Eagle Downed Over Iran in First US Combat Aircraft Loss to Hostile Fire

An F-15E Strike Eagle — a two-seat aircraft — was shot down over Iran, marking the first confirmed loss of a US warplane to hostile fire in the US-Iran war that began February 28. One crew member was recovered; the second remained missing with Iran actively searching to capture them.

Iran Rejects U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Talks in Islamabad

Iran formally refused to engage U.S. negotiators in Islamabad and declared Washington's terms unacceptable, effectively halting the Pakistan-led mediation track backed by Turkey and Egypt.

Iraqi PMF Forces Enter Iran's Khuzestan Province for Internal Security Deployment

At least 1,000 armed PMF fighters, including elements of Kata'ib Hezbollah, entered Iran's Khuzestan province via the Basra border and Shalamcheh crossing, deploying to Khorramshahr, Abadan, and Ahvaz with military vehicles and equipment.

US Destroys Iran's B1 Tehran-Karaj Highway Bridge

US forces destroyed the B1 highway bridge connecting Tehran to Karaj, Iran's two most populous urban centers, killing eight and injuring 95. President Trump publicly celebrated the strike and threatened further attacks on civilian infrastructure including desalination plants.

IRGC Launches Child Recruitment Campaign Amid US-Israel War

The IRGC formally announced a recruitment drive targeting Iranians aged 12 and above as volunteer fighters, operationalizing children into checkpoints, patrols, and intelligence tasks during active US-Israeli strike campaigns.

Iran-Linked Factions Escalate Attacks Across Iraq Amid US-Israeli War on Iran

Iran-backed Iraqi armed groups under the Islamic Resistance in Iraq umbrella have launched sustained drone and missile attacks on US military and commercial targets across Iraq, including in Erbil, Baghdad, and Basra, prompting US and Israeli retaliatory strikes on PMU positions.

PMF Fragmentation and Intra-State Security Breakdown in Iraq

Iran-aligned factions within Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are attacking Iraqi state institutions — including the National Intelligence Service and Counter-Terrorism Service — while also targeting foreign diplomatic and military facilities and kidnapping an American journalist.

USS Gerald R. Ford Rejoins Operation Epic Fury; Three-Carrier Deployment Established

The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group is returning to Operation Epic Fury in the Eastern Mediterranean following a five-day maintenance and liberty port visit in Split, Croatia, after a non-combat fire in its laundry spaces.

US-Israel Escalation Against Iranian Infrastructure; Hormuz Coalition Talks Yield No Breakthrough

US and Israeli forces struck multiple high-value Iranian targets including the Pasteur Institute, the B1 bridge in Karaj, and Iran's two largest steel plants, as Trump publicly framed these as coercive leverage to force a negotiated settlement.

US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Triggers Pakistan Mediation Effort

A US-Israel military campaign beginning February 28, 2026, opened with decapitation strikes and attacks on Iranian military and nuclear sites, killing the Supreme Leader and dozens of senior commanders.

US-Iran War: Malley Disputes Trump's Strategic Success Claims

Former US Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley publicly challenged Trump's narrative that the US-Iran war achieved regime change, nuclear dismantlement, and strategic success.

Iran Retaliatory Missile and Drone Strikes on Israel and Gulf States; US Destroys Tehran-Karaj Bridge

Iran launched missiles targeting Israel and drone/missile attacks against Kuwait and the Iraq-Jordan border crossing at Trebil, in response to sustained US-Israeli strikes including the destruction of Iran's highest bridge linking Tehran to Karaj.

Iran Fortifies Kharg Island and Launches 'Janfada' Mobilization Campaign

Iran is hardening defenses around Kharg Island — its primary oil export terminal — by deploying guided missile systems, laying coastal mines, and booby-trapping facilities.

Arab League Formal Condemnation of Iranian Strikes at UNSC

Arab League Secretary-General Aboul Gheit addressed the UN Security Council to formally condemn Iranian missile and drone strikes against Arab state civilian infrastructure — airports, ports, energy facilities, and residential areas — and Iranian actions threatening maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.

U.S.-Iran War Escalation: Strait of Hormuz Closure and Allied Fracture

Ongoing U.S. strikes on Iran are destroying infrastructure including bridges and research institutes, while Iran continues to fire missiles at Israel, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, demonstrating residual strike capability.

U.S.-Israel Joint Military Campaign Against Iran (Operation Epic Fury / Roaring Lion) Launched

The United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran on February 28, 2026, without congressional authorization and with legally contested jus ad bellum justifications.

U.S. Strike on B1 Bridge Near Tehran

U.S. forces struck the B1 bridge between Tehran and Karaj in two sequential strikes approximately one hour apart, killing eight and wounding 95.

Trump Speech Frames Iran Nuclear Program as War Justification and Terminal Condition

President Trump delivered a 20-minute speech on April 1, 2025, invoking nuclear justification for the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran over 20 times, referencing Operations Rising Lion and Midnight Hammer as having significantly degraded Iran's nuclear infrastructure at Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz.

US Strike Destroys Tehran-Karaj B1 Suspension Bridge

US forces struck the B1 suspension bridge connecting Tehran and Karaj — a $400M, 136m-high flagship infrastructure project — collapsing its central span and killing two people.

Strait of Hormuz Closure Triggers Global Energy Supply Shock

An ongoing war involving Iran has effectively halted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing transit from approximately 20 million barrels per day to near zero and triggering acute energy shortages across Asia and Africa.

Israel-Iran Direct Military Conflict Onset

Israel has entered into a direct military conflict with Iran, marking the first time Israel has engaged in sustained hostilities with a geographically distant state rather than proximate non-state actors or neighboring states.

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran (Operation Epic Fury)

The United States and Israel have launched a sustained air and missile campaign against Iran targeting nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, naval assets, and senior leadership, killing over 250 Iranian officials including the supreme leader.

US Military Buildup in Middle East Theater Signals Potential Iran Escalation

The United States has deployed the USS Tripoli amphibious ready group (ARG) to the Middle East theater, with the USS Boxer ARG en route, together transporting two Marine Expeditionary Units and elements of the 82nd Airborne Division — approximately 17,000 additional troops on top of 30,000–40,000 already in region.

IDF Kills Iranian Oil HQ Commander Eshagi in Tehran Strike

Israeli Air Force killed Jamshid Eshagi, identified as commander of Iran's oil headquarters and described as the primary financing arm of the Iranian regime's armed forces.

IDF Strike on IRGC Central Headquarters, Tehran

Israel struck the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' central headquarters in Tehran, which the IDF described as the principal node for managing budgets across Iran's security establishment.

Trump Address to Nation on Operation Epic Fury

President Trump delivered a nineteen-minute televised address framing U.S. involvement in what the administration calls Operation Epic Fury against Iran.

Trump Threatens NATO Exit Amid US-Iran War Strategic Impasse

President Trump publicly characterized NATO as a 'paper tiger' and raised the prospect of US withdrawal from the alliance during the ongoing US-Iran conflict, while simultaneously demanding European and Gulf states form an independent coalition to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

IFRC Warns of Humanitarian Collapse Risk in Iran Amid U.S.-Israeli Airstrike Campaign

Ongoing U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran since February 28 have produced a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian environment, with 1,900 killed and 21,000 injured.

Trump Signals Intensified Iran Strikes Over Two to Three Week Horizon

Trump publicly committed to dramatically escalating U.S. military operations against Iran, threatening to strike oil and energy infrastructure and invoking a 2-3 week intensification window.

Trump Prime-Time Address Claims Iran Military Destruction While Threatening Further Escalation

Trump delivered a prime-time address asserting Iran's military capabilities — navy, air force, missile programme, nuclear infrastructure — are largely destroyed and claiming effective regime change following the assassination of Supreme Leader Khamenei.

UK Convenes 30+ Nation Diplomatic Coalition to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

The United Kingdom is convening over 30 countries for talks aimed at exerting diplomatic and political pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been closed amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

Pakistan Emerges as US-Iran Mediator Under Military-Led Diplomatic Realignment

Pakistan has repositioned itself from diplomatic isolation to active mediator in the US-Iran conflict, with Field Marshal Asim Munir serving as the primary architect of this shift through direct White House access unprecedented for a Pakistani military chief.

Russia Signals Diplomatic Readiness to Mediate Iran Conflict

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov publicly signaled Russia's readiness to assist de-escalation efforts involving Iran, confirming Putin is maintaining contact with regional leaders. The statement positions Moscow as a willing mediator without explicitly committing to a formal mediation role.

US-Israeli Strike Wounds Iranian Strategic Adviser Kharrazi

Kamal Kharrazi, 81-year-old former Iranian foreign minister and head of Iran's Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, was seriously wounded in a reported US-Israeli strike on his Tehran residence, which also killed his wife.

U.S.-Iran Direct War Escalation: Trump Stone Ages Threat and Iranian Missile Strike on Tel Aviv

More than one month into direct U.S.-Israeli military operations against Iran, Trump publicly escalated rhetoric, threatening to destroy Iran's power grid and bring the country 'back to the Stone Ages.' Iran responded with immediate missile strikes on Tel Aviv and threatened broader retaliatory operations.

Iran War Triggers Hormuz Closure and Global Energy Shock

A U.S.-Israeli military conflict with Iran has resulted in the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, removing approximately 13-14 million barrels of oil per day from global markets and driving Brent crude up 59 percent.

Argentina Designates IRGC as Terrorist Organization

Argentina formally added the IRGC to its Public Registry of Persons and Entities Linked to Acts of Terrorism and its Financing, activating financial sanctions and operational restrictions.

U.S.-Israel Joint Military Campaigns Dismantling Iran's Strategic Infrastructure (2025–2026)

In a sequence of operations spanning 2025–2026, Israel and the United States systematically struck Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile manufacturing base, air defense systems, and senior leadership — including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his deputy Ali Larijani.

Houthis Threaten Bab el-Mandeb Closure if Gulf States Join US-Israeli Campaign Against Iran

Houthi Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour publicly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait — a critical chokepoint controlling sea access to the Suez Canal — if Gulf states join US-Israeli operations against Iran.

Trump Signals Possible U.S. Seizure of Kharg Island

President Trump publicly indicated the U.S. is considering seizing Kharg Island, Iran's primary crude oil export terminal handling the majority of Iranian oil shipments. The island is defended by the IRGC and hosts approximately 8,000 civilians.

Iran Leadership Transition to IRGC-Aligned Hardliners Amid Active Conflict

Following the death or incapacitation of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the targeted killing of senior military figures, Iran's power structure has reconsolidated around IRGC-aligned hardliners including parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf and new national security advisor Zolghadr.

Iran-U.S.-Israel War: Iranian Hormuz Chokehold Leaves U.S. Strategically Checkmated

Approximately 30 days into a war initiated by Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran in June 2025, Iran has leveraged control of the Strait of Hormuz to impose sustained pressure on global energy markets and trade, a contingency the U.S. military was unprepared for.

U.S. Launches Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion Against Iran

The United States has initiated military operations — Epic Fury and Roaring Lion — targeting Iran's nuclear infrastructure and ballistic missile capabilities.

U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalation: Strikes, Mediation Collapse, and Military Options

U.S.-Israeli strikes hit uranium processing and university infrastructure in Tehran and Isfahan, while Iran struck aluminum plants in Bahrain and UAE and attacked a U.S. airbase in Saudi Arabia, wounding twelve troops.

Iran Dual-Track Escalation Strategy: Horizontal and Vertical Expansion

Following direct US-Israeli strikes, Iran executed a deliberate escalation strategy targeting 14 countries within six days, with the UAE bearing the brunt of over 2,100 drone and missile intercepts.

Iran Horizontal and Vertical Escalation Campaign Against Gulf and Global Infrastructure

Iran launched a broad escalation campaign targeting energy infrastructure, aviation hubs, AWS data centers in the UAE and Bahrain, desalination facilities, and civilian supply chains across at least 14 countries.

African States Refuse Alignment with Iran During Active Conflict

African states, including traditionally Iran-aligned partners, have declined to support Tehran during its ongoing war, with the African Union explicitly calling for de-escalation.

US-Israel War with Iran Creates Strategic Opening for China

The ongoing US-Israel military conflict with Iran is creating compounding strategic advantages for China beyond the theater of direct combat.

US-Israel War with Iran Enters Endgame Search Phase

One month into the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, the conflict has produced over 5,000 casualties — roughly 3,750 in Iran and 1,300 in Lebanon — with a second Israeli front opened against Hezbollah. US fuel prices have surpassed $4/gallon, creating domestic political pressure.

U.S.-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran: Mid-War Assessment

The United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran beginning February 28, 2025, targeting ballistic missile infrastructure, naval forces, nuclear sites, and regime leadership.

US-Iran War: Strait of Hormuz Closure and Ceasefire Negotiations

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed following US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran beginning February 28, with Iran interdicting commercial shipping and its parliament legislating fees on waterway passage.

US-Iran-Israel Multi-Front Escalation: Tehran Strikes, Iranian Counterattack, and Hormuz Standoff

Major strikes hit Tehran and Isfahan province, damaging infrastructure and wounding officials including former Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi. Iran responded with what state media called one of its largest-ever missile attacks on Israel, wounding at least 14.

Trump Prime-Time Address on Operation Epic Fury Progress and Escalation Threats

President Trump delivered a prime-time national address framing US military operations against Iran as nearly complete while simultaneously threatening to escalate strikes to Iranian power generation infrastructure within two to three weeks.

Trump Declares Iran War Objectives 'Nearing Completion' in Nationally Televised Address

After 32 days of U.S. military operations, Trump publicly declared Iran is 'no longer a threat' and that strategic objectives are nearing completion, while announcing continued heavy strikes over the next two to three weeks.

Trump Signals Continued Iran War, Oil Markets Spike to $106

President Trump announced from the White House that U.S. forces would continue striking Iran 'extremely hard' over the next two to three weeks, describing the conflict as 'nearing completion' without providing a timeline. Brent crude surged nearly 5 percent to $106/barrel and WTI rose to $104.

Trump Prime-Time Address on Operation Epic Fury Against Iran

President Trump declared that U.S. military operations under Operation Epic Fury have effectively dismantled Iran's conventional military power — destroying its navy, air force, missile stockpiles, nuclear facilities, and command-and-control infrastructure within approximately 32 days.

Trump Threatens Strikes on Iranian Power and Oil Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's electrical generation plants and oil facilities if Tehran refuses a nuclear deal.

Trump Prime-Time Address on Iran War: No Exit Strategy Defined

More than a month into active U.S.-Iran hostilities, Trump delivered a nationally televised address claiming significant military progress while failing to articulate a defined end state. He estimated the conflict would conclude within three weeks but simultaneously threatened further escalation.

Trump Prime-Time Address Defends Iran War Objectives and Conditions

One month into active U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran, Trump delivered a White House address claiming tactical success — including the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei and strikes on three nuclear sites — while acknowledging the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and Iran has not capitulated.

Trump Address on Iran War and Commitment to Continue Campaign

President Trump addressed the nation on the ongoing U.S. military campaign against Iran, committing to continue bombing operations for at least two to three weeks and explicitly rejecting a ceasefire.

Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Following U.S.-Israeli Military Action

Following a U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran initiated February 28, 2025, Iran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz, severing a critical jet fuel supply artery for global aviation. Kerosene prices doubled to approximately €1,500 per metric ton.

Trump National Address on Iran Campaign, Hormuz Closure, and Regime Change

President Trump addressed the nation following the February 28 joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iranian cities that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei and over 200 civilians.

Trump Address on US-Iran War: Alliance Rationale and Escalation Signal

Trump's nationally televised address on Day 32 of the US-Iran war confirms the conflict was initiated primarily to serve Israeli and Gulf partner interests rather than direct US strategic necessity.

Trump Addresses Nation on Operation Epic Fury, Claims Near-Decisive Degradation of Iran

One month into Operation Epic Fury, Trump publicly claimed Iran's navy, air force, and command leadership have been destroyed or severely degraded, and that missile and drone capabilities have been dramatically curtailed.

Trump Primetime Address Declares US-Iran War 'Nearing Completion'

Trump delivered a 19-minute national address claiming US military objectives in Iran were nearly achieved after 32 days of Operation Epic Fury, while simultaneously threatening continued strikes for 'two to three weeks.' The speech failed to define clear end conditions, contradicted Tehran's denial of ceasefire requests, and deepened confusion over US war aims.

Trump Prime-Time Address on US-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran

Trump delivered a 19-minute White House address declaring near-victory in the ongoing US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, claiming its missile, drone, and nuclear infrastructure have been severely degraded within 32 days.

Trump Disavows US Responsibility for Strait of Hormuz Security

President Trump publicly declared the US bears no responsibility for securing the Strait of Hormuz, explicitly tasking oil-dependent nations with protecting their own supply routes.

Trump Primetime Address on Iran War: Victory Claims Amid Ongoing Hostilities

Trump addressed the nation claiming US forces have struck over 12,300 targets and 'decimated' Iranian naval drone and ballistic missile capabilities since Operation Epic Fury began five weeks ago.

Trump Declares Core Strategic Objectives Nearing Completion in US-Iran War

Trump's first national address since the US-Iran war began signals the conflict is in an advanced but unresolved phase.

Trump Issues Infrastructure Strike Threat Against Iran Amid Reported Post-Strike Negotiations

Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iranian electrical generation plants and oil infrastructure if Tehran fails to conclude a deal with Washington.

Trump White House Address on U.S.-Iran War Signals, Threats, and Strategic Ambiguity

Trump's White House address revealed deep strategic incoherence one month into the U.S.-Iran war: pledging continued strikes for 2-3 weeks, threatening simultaneous destruction of Iran's electrical grid, while deflecting responsibility for Hormuz reopening onto allies and hinting at unilateral U.S. withdrawal.

US-Israel Joint Military Campaign Against Iran: Interim Strategic Assessment

The United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran beginning February 28, targeting ballistic missile infrastructure, naval assets, and nuclear facilities.

Saudi Arabia-US Alliance Strain Over Iran War Conduct

Saudi Arabia has reached a critical point of frustration with the Trump administration's management of the US-Iran conflict, driven by Trump's threats against Iranian energy infrastructure, demands that Gulf states fund the war, and public humiliation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Jordan-Saudi Arabia Corridor Integration Push Amid Regional Trade Route Disruption

Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes — caused by the Iran war and Houthi interdiction — are accelerating Gulf state interest in overland trade corridors through Jordan.

Strait of Hormuz Closure and US-Iran War Escalation with Uncertain Exit

A US-Israeli military operation against Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of seaborne oil transits. Brent crude has surged ~60% and US gasoline has topped $4 per gallon.

UAE Systematic Crackdown on Iranian Diaspora and Institutions

The UAE has revoked visas for Iranian nationals, banned Iranian passport holders from entry or transit, and closed key Iranian institutions including a hospital, schools, and a social club in Dubai.

Trump States Intent to Seize Iran's Kharg Island Oil Infrastructure

Trump publicly declared intent to seize or destroy Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iranian oil exports flow, framing resource seizure as a US war objective. He also threatened to obliterate Iran's broader energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

Trump Prime-Time Address on Iran War

One month into an active US war with Iran, President Trump is delivering a nationally televised address attempting to consolidate domestic political support for the conflict. The speech occurs against a backdrop of declining approval ratings, economic disruption, and diplomatic fallout.

U.S. Signals Exit from Iran Military Campaign with Redefined War Objectives

The Trump administration is signaling imminent withdrawal from active combat operations against Iran after approximately one month of strikes, with Secretary Rubio publicly redefining success criteria to focus on conventional military degradation rather than nuclear elimination or regime change.

Iranian Ballistic Missile Strike Destroys US E-3 Sentry AWACS at Prince Sultan Air Base

Iran struck Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia with ballistic missiles, destroying a US E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft — valued at approximately $300 million and the first combat loss of the type — while damaging several additional military jets.

Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz, Triggering Global Oil Supply Shock

Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, removing up to 16 million barrels per day from global petroleum supply — approximately 15% of pre-war demand. Brent crude rose to $118.35, with projections reaching $146–$200 depending on closure duration, while Dubai crude already exceeded $150.

Trump Signals US Exit from Iran War, Shifts Hormuz Responsibility to Third Parties

Trump publicly declared US military objectives in Iran largely achieved and indicated a withdrawal within two to three weeks, framing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a problem for energy-dependent third parties — particularly China — rather than the US.

Trump Signals Iran War Exit While Hormuz Remains Closed

Trump announced a 2-3 week exit timeline from the Iran war, claiming nuclear objectives achieved and regime change accomplished, while the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, a third carrier strike group deploys, and Iran's foreign minister denies meaningful negotiations.

Iran De Facto Blockade of Strait of Hormuz Post-US-Israeli Strikes

Following US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, Iran imposed a near-total de facto blockade on the Strait of Hormuz using missile and drone attacks on vessels, naval mining, and selective negotiated passage. Shipping traffic collapsed by approximately 70 percent initially, then nearly to zero.

Kidnapping of American Journalist in Baghdad

An American journalist was kidnapped from Saadoun Street in central Baghdad and transferred via two vehicles toward Babil province southwest of the capital. Iraqi security forces intercepted one vehicle, arresting one suspect, but the journalist was transferred to a second car that escaped.

Kidnapping of American Journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad

Freelance American journalist Shelly Renee Kittleson was abducted from a Baghdad street by multiple individuals, with U.S. officials attributing responsibility to Kataib Hezbollah, an Iran-linked Iraqi militia.

Trump Threatens NATO Exit Following Iran War Alliance Fracture

President Trump publicly declared NATO withdrawal is 'beyond reconsideration,' calling the alliance a 'paper tiger' after key members — the UK, France, and Spain — declined to join U.S. military operations against Iran or assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian Rial Surges Fourfold Against Pakistani Rupee Amid Gulf War

The Iranian rial has appreciated nearly 300% against the Pakistani rupee since the onset of a Gulf war, reversing prior currency collapse induced by US sanctions imposed in early 2026.

US-Israel Military Operation Against Iran with IRGC Retaliation

The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against major Iranian cities including Tehran on February 28, triggering a 33-day near-total internet blackout across Iran.

Pakistan-China Diplomatic Coordination on US-Iran War Mediation

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Dar is visiting China at Wang Yi's invitation to coordinate on the ongoing US-Iran war now in its fifth week. Pakistan has emerged as a self-designated mediator, hosting Gulf and regional foreign ministers and claiming a mandate from both belligerents to facilitate talks.

US Coercive Diplomacy Briefing: Iran War Enters Second Month

The US is conducting an active military campaign against Iran now entering its second month, targeting Iran's defense industrial base, logistics, and drone/missile production capacity. US forces have achieved air superiority over Iranian airspace, including B-52 overflights of the Iranian mainland.

China-Pakistan Joint Ceasefire Proposal for Iran War

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar issued a five-point joint proposal in Beijing calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Iran war, protection of Strait of Hormuz shipping, and launch of peace talks.

Trump Declares Iran Nuclear Threat Eliminated Despite Retained Fissile Stockpile

President Trump declared in the Oval Office that Iran's ability to build a nuclear weapon had been eliminated, despite no evidence that Iran's ~970 pounds of highly enriched uranium has been removed or destroyed.

Trump Threatens Destruction of Iranian Civilian Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's desalination plants, electricity generation infrastructure, oil wells, and Kharg Island unless Iran reaches a deal and opens the Strait of Hormuz. The threats were issued via Truth Social and explicitly framed as retribution.

Iran Rejects Ceasefire Framework, Conditions Resolution on Guarantees and Compensation

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly rejected a ceasefire framing in favor of a full regional cessation of hostilities, while characterizing US-Iran contacts as informal message exchanges rather than negotiations.

Pakistan Positions as US-Iran Mediation Hub Under Munir's Leadership

Pakistan's de facto ruler Field Marshal Asim Munir has leveraged Pakistan's diplomatic positioning to offer Islamabad as the venue for US-Iran negotiations, with JD Vance reportedly considering a visit.

Kataib Hezbollah-Linked Kidnapping of US Journalist in Baghdad

American freelance journalist Shelly Kittleson was abducted in Baghdad by four men in civilian clothes with suspected ties to Kataib Hezbollah, an Iranian-aligned Iraqi militia. One suspect was apprehended by Iraqi security forces after a vehicle pursuit in eastern Baghdad.

US Operation Epic Fury Against Iran Collapses; Iran Retains Hormuz Control

The US military campaign against Iran (Operation Epic Fury, initiated 28 February 2025) has failed to achieve its stated objectives — regime change, unconditional surrender, nuclear programme destruction, and Hormuz clearance.

Kidnapping of American Journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad

American journalist Shelly Kittleson, contributing to Al-Monitor, was abducted in Baghdad by four men in civilian clothes following a car chase. The Iraqi Interior Ministry confirmed one arrest and ongoing efforts to free her. The U.S.

Kataib Hezbollah Kidnapping of American Journalist in Baghdad

Kataib Hezbollah allegedly abducted American freelance journalist Shelly Kittelson in Baghdad, marking the group's second known kidnapping of a Western national following the 2023 abduction of Princeton graduate student Elizabeth Tsurkov.

Kidnapping of U.S. Journalist Shelly Kittleson in Baghdad

Freelance U.S. journalist Shelly Kittleson was abducted from Saadoun Street in central Baghdad and transported toward Babil province southwest of the capital.

IRGC Issues Threat Against US Corporate Infrastructure in the Gulf

The IRGC publicly listed 18 US technology and manufacturing companies operating in the Gulf — including Microsoft, Google, Apple, Intel, IBM, and Boeing — threatening strikes against them in retaliation for continued US military operations against Iran.

Trump Claims U.S. Strikes Achieved Regime Change and Nuclear Elimination in Iran

Trump publicly claimed that U.S. strikes have achieved regime change in Iran and eliminated its nuclear capability, citing overnight strikes near Isfahan's nuclear facility. He asserted Iran has 'no strength left' and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen automatically upon U.S. withdrawal.

Israel-Iran War Reshapes Gulf Strategic Consensus on Iran Containment

Israel's 'Operation Epic Fury,' launched February 28, has initiated a sustained campaign to degrade Iran's military-industrial base, with IDF operations planned for at least three additional weeks targeting defense industry capacity.

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Disrupts Global Energy Flows and Compounds China's Economic Crisis

The United States and Israel launched coordinated missile strikes against Iran on February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and triggering an ongoing conflict that has partially closed the Strait of Hormuz.

China-Pakistan Strategic Coordination on Iran War Diplomacy

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar met Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing to coordinate diplomatic strategy on ending the US-Iran war now in its fifth week.

US-Iran Conflict: Military Buildup, Negotiation Stall, and Strait of Hormuz Contingency Planning

The United States is engaged in a 10-day pause in strikes on Iran following significant degradation of Iranian military capabilities, while simultaneously building up military forces in the Middle East.

IRGC Threatens US Tech Companies as Legitimate Military Targets

Iran's IRGC issued a conditional threat to strike more than 15 US technology companies operating in the region, designating firms involved in AI and ICT-enabled targeting as legitimate military targets.

Pakistan-China Joint Five-Part Middle East Peace Initiative Launched

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Beijing to align on a joint five-part peace proposal for the Middle East, framing the initiative around ceasefire, diplomatic dialogue, and Hormuz waterway safety.

Iraq Subjected to Dual-Front Strikes as U.S.-Iran War Expands

Since February 28, Iraq has been struck by both U.S.-Israeli forces targeting Iran-backed militias and by Iran and its proxies targeting U.S. bases, Kurdish areas, oil infrastructure, and diplomatic missions. No other country in the conflict has been hit from both sides simultaneously.

Regional War Spillover Destabilizes Iraq's Multialignment Posture

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has shattered Iraq's years-long multialignment strategy, triggering militia attacks on U.S. bases, Iranian strikes on Iraqi Kurdistan, and U.S. retaliatory strikes on PMF-affiliated infrastructure including Iraqi military sites.

Death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Succession Crisis

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died on March 1, 2026, following U.S. and Israeli strikes in February 2026 that killed him and other senior officials while massively degrading Iran's military, nuclear, and security apparatus.

U.S.-Israeli Military Campaign Against Iran Exposes Russian Strategic Impotence

The ongoing U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran has structurally undermined Russia's claim to global power-broker status by demonstrating Moscow's inability to protect a key client after 25 years of cultivation.

Iran Activates Strait of Hormuz Blockade as Coercive Economic Weapon

Iran has operationalized control of the Strait of Hormuz as a physical blockade, disrupting over a fifth of global oil supply and triggering cascading effects on natural gas, fertilizer, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor production dependent on Gulf-sourced inputs.

Trump Threatens Destruction of Iranian Energy Infrastructure Over Hormuz Dispute

Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's Kharg Island crude export hub, oil wells, power plants, and desalination infrastructure unless Tehran accepted a deal and reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Following US-Israeli Military Strike

Following US and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off 25–30% of global oil supply and 20% of LNG transit.

Kataib Hezbollah Abduction of American Journalist in Baghdad

Freelance American journalist Shelly Kittleson was abducted by individuals linked to Kataib Hezbollah on a busy central Baghdad street, transported in a two-car convoy, and retained despite a vehicle chase that resulted in one suspect's arrest.

US-Iran War Escalation: Hormuz Blockade, Missile Exchanges, and Breakdown of Peace Proposals

A month-old US-Israeli war against Iran has escalated sharply, with Iran maintaining an effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, firing missile salvos at Israel, and publicly rejecting US peace proposals as 'unrealistic.' Israel is conducting missile strikes on Tehran military infrastructure and Hezbollah positions in Beirut.

Regional Iran War Spillover into Iraq

The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran has drawn Iraq into active conflict despite Baghdad's sustained neutrality effort. Pro-Iranian PMF factions have launched hundreds of drone and rocket attacks on U.S. bases and the Baghdad embassy; the U.S. has struck PMF infrastructure and commanders in Iraq.

Iran Strikes Kuwaiti Oil Tanker Near Dubai Amid Ongoing US-Israel Campaign

Iran attacked the fully laden Kuwaiti crude carrier Al-Salmi near Dubai, marking one of the most significant vessel strikes since the US-Israel bombing campaign began over a month ago.

Trump Announces Expanded Iran Strike Target List Including Civilian Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to destroy Iran's electric generating plants, oil wells, Kharg Island export terminal, and desalination facilities if nuclear diplomacy fails.

U.S.-Iran War: Repeated Deadline Extensions and Contradictory Negotiation Signals

The U.S. has repeatedly extended ultimatums to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — moving deadlines from March 21 to March 23, March 27, and now April 6 — while simultaneously claiming negotiating progress with Iranian parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf.

Pakistan Affirms Facilitation Role in US-Iran Indirect Talks

Pakistan has publicly confirmed its role as the primary conduit for indirect US-Iran negotiations, relaying messages between Washington and Tehran while coordinating with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt.

Pakistan Positions Itself as US-Iran Conflict Mediator

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced that both the US and Iran had expressed confidence in Pakistan to facilitate peace talks, positioning Islamabad as a mediator in the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

US-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran: Strategic Assessment

An ongoing US-Israel military campaign against Iran has killed Supreme Leader Khamenei, degraded Iranian missile stocks and production infrastructure, and prompted a US troop buildup aimed at opening the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran Selective Strait of Hormuz Transit Permission (March 26 Gesture)

Iran permitted vessels from China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan to transit the Strait of Hormuz on March 26, while maintaining the broader closure that has produced what the IEA characterizes as the most acute energy supply disruption in global market history.

US-Israel Strike Campaign Against Iran Enters Day 32 With Escalating Coercion

US and Israeli air strikes continue against Iranian territory including Tehran and Isfahan on the 32nd day of active conflict. Secretary of State Rubio confirmed back-channel communications via intermediaries are active, framing resolution as achievable within weeks.

Trump Threatens Kharg Island Seizure Amid Active US-Iran Military Conflict

President Trump has publicly threatened to deploy US ground forces to seize Kharg Island, through which 90% of Iran's oil exports pass, as leverage to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and negotiate.

U.S.-Israel Military Campaign Against Iran Enters Second Month with Ground Invasion Under Consideration

A U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, launched February 28, has entered its second month with no resolution. Iran has sustained retaliatory strikes on U.S. Gulf bases, including damage to an E-3 Sentry AWACS and KC-135 tankers at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

US-Iran War: Trump Administration Seeks Arab Gulf State War Cost-Sharing

The Trump administration publicly signaled intent to demand Arab states fund US military operations against Iran, mirroring the 1990-91 Gulf War cost-sharing model.

Pakistan Offers to Broker US-Iran Ceasefire Talks

Pakistan's Foreign Minister convened a quadrilateral meeting with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt and subsequently announced Islamabad's readiness to host US-Iran negotiations.

Trump Threatens Destruction of Iranian Civilian Energy and Water Infrastructure

President Trump issued a public threat via social media to destroy Iranian electricity plants, oil facilities, and potentially desalination infrastructure if Iran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Egypt-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia-Turkey Quartet Foreign Ministers Meeting in Islamabad

The foreign ministers of Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey convened in Islamabad, formalizing a multilateral diplomatic initiative aimed at brokering a ceasefire in the Iran-Israel conflict and shaping post-war regional architecture.

Pakistan Positions as Iran-US Ceasefire Mediator During Operation Epic Fury

Pakistan has emerged as the primary intermediary transmitting a US 15-point ceasefire proposal to Iran and offering Islamabad as a venue for direct talks during the ongoing 2026 Iran-US conflict.

Pakistan Bids for US-Iran Mediator Role Amid Active Conflict

Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar publicly claimed Pakistan's role as a facilitator of US-Iran talks after consultations with Turkish, Egyptian, and Saudi counterparts, framing Islamabad as a credible go-between.

US Threatens Seizure of Kharg Island and Iranian Energy Infrastructure

President Trump publicly threatened to seize Iran's Kharg Island — which processes 90% of Iranian oil exports — and destroy energy infrastructure if Iran maintains its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Drone Attacks on Syrian Army and SDF-US Base Near Iraqi Border

Iran-aligned factions in Iraq launched drone attacks against Syrian army bases near the Iraqi border and a northeast Syrian base hosting US forces. Syria's army intercepted most drones but acknowledged assessing response options, signaling potential escalatory pressure.

Multi-Front Regional War: Iran-Israel-Houthi Escalation Following Khamenei Killing

A month-long U.S.-Israeli military campaign has killed Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei and senior Revolutionary Guards commanders, yet failed to suppress Iran's missile and drone capability.

PMF Paramilitary Convoy Enters Iran Under Humanitarian Cover

Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) entered Iran via the Shalamcheh border crossing in a convoy framed publicly as a humanitarian aid mission carrying food and medical supplies.

Iraqi PMF Convoy Enters Iran Amid Active US-Israel Military Campaign

A convoy of Iraqi Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) entered Iran via the Shalamcheh border crossing, officially framed as a humanitarian aid mission carrying 70 tonnes of food and medical supplies.

Trump Threatens Destruction of Iranian Civilian Infrastructure Including Desalination Plants

President Trump escalated his coercive posture toward Iran by publicly threatening to destroy electricity generation plants, oil infrastructure, Kharg Island, and desalination facilities if negotiations fail and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

Iran-Aligned Militia Drone Attack on Syrian Bases Near Iraqi Border

Unidentified actors launched a large-scale drone attack on multiple Syrian military bases near the Iraqi border, with Syria claiming most UAVs were intercepted. Simultaneously, Syria disclosed the discovery of Hezbollah smuggling tunnels on the Lebanese border.

IRGC-Bonyad Patronage Complex Sustains Regime Cohesion Amid Israeli-U.S. Military Campaign

Despite a sustained Israeli and American air campaign degrading Iran's military leadership and infrastructure, the regime's economic patronage network — anchored in the IRGC's quasi-corporate role and tax-exempt religious foundations — continues to bind millions of loyalists through material incentives.

Trump Administration Deliberates Forced Extraction of Iranian Enriched Uranium

The Trump administration is actively planning a potential special operations mission to seize roughly 400+ kilograms of 60%-enriched uranium and nearly 200 kilograms of 20% fissile material from Iran's Isfahan and Natanz sites, which were partially damaged in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025.

Pakistan Announces US-Iran Mediation Talks Amid Escalating Regional War

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar announced Islamabad will host talks between the US and Iran following a regional summit with Turkish, Egyptian, and Saudi diplomats.

U.S. Liberal Order Dismantlement Under Trump and Iran Military Action

Acharya identifies the Trump administration's simultaneous dismantlement of free trade norms, multilateral institutions, democracy promotion, and alliance commitments as the terminal phase of the U.S.-led liberal international order.

Russia Provides Iran Satellite Targeting Intelligence on U.S. Military Facilities

Russian satellites systematically photographed U.S. and allied military installations — including Diego Garcia, Prince Sultan Air Base, Al Udeid Air Base, Incirlik Air Base, and Gulf oil infrastructure — and shared imagery with Iran, enabling subsequent Iranian strikes.

Pakistan Hosts Multilateral Diplomatic Summit on Iran War

Pakistan is convening a two-day diplomatic summit in Islamabad with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt to address the Iran war.

Gulf States Fracture Over Iran War Endgame as IRGC Maintains Hormuz Stranglehold

Iran's IRGC is sustaining missile and drone attacks on Gulf civilian infrastructure — including Dubai's financial district — while maintaining a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting regional oil exports and global energy markets.

Trump Pursuit of Post-Khamenei Authoritarian Settlement in Iran

Following the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the context of a U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran, President Trump articulated a preference for a Venezuela-style leadership replacement — substituting one authoritarian figure with a more transactional one — and expressed desire to be involved in selecting Khamenei's successor.

U.S.-Israeli Joint Military Operation Against Iran

A joint U.S.-Israeli military operation has been underway for over three weeks, employing airstrikes that have eliminated specific Iranian leaders, degraded missile and naval assets, but failed to achieve regime change or destroy Iran's nuclear knowledge base.