War / Africa
Ethiopian Civil War
Federal drone strikes on Mekelle and a deadlocked multi-front insurgency push Ethiopia toward renewed full-scale war.
Central African Republic
The Central African Republic has been at war with itself since 2012, when the Seleka rebel coalition marched on Bangui and toppled the state, triggering years of fighting between mostly Muslim former rebels and Christian militias.
The state never recovered. President Faustin-Archange Touadera survives by outsourcing security to Russia: fighters from the Africa Corps, successor to the Wagner Group, guard the government in exchange for gold and timber concessions, while the Coalition of Patriots for Change holds much of the countryside. Sudan's civil war bleeds weapons across the eastern border.
The country works less as a state than as a protection arrangement, and the protector is paid in mines.
No direct phase change has occurred inside CAR, but the conflict's structural balance is being quietly stressed from outside.
Russian weapons portfolios are contracting under combined attrition and sanctions pressure across artillery ammunition, tanks, UAVs, electronic warfare, and long-range precision strike, and increased domestic production has not closed the gap.
The Africa Corps concession model creates a structural conflict of interest: Russia benefits from continued instability that justifies its security presence, reducing its incentive to pursue a decisive military outcome.
CPC faction cohesion remains the key variable on the rebel side; the coalition is ideologically loose and historically prone to fragmentation.
Sudan's civil war has degraded cross-border containment in the east, opening new logistics corridors for armed groups and complicating government force deployment in that theater.
PRO-GOVERNMENT
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Russian Equipment Shortages Constrain Operations in Ukraine and Beyond
Russian weapons portfolios in Ukraine are contracting in both size and composition under combined attrition and sanctions pressure, across artillery ammunition, tanks, uncrewed aerial vehicles, electronic warfare, and long-range precision strike.
War / Africa
Federal drone strikes on Mekelle and a deadlocked multi-front insurgency push Ethiopia toward renewed full-scale war.
War / Africa
Sudan's army fights on across Khartoum while a chlorine munitions dossier and a US embargo push reshape the conflict's accountability.
Russia's Africa Corps: core security guarantor and ground combat force.
Rwandan troops: supplementary pro-government force providing manpower and training capacity alongside Africa Corps.
CPC cross-border networks in Chad: logistics and recruitment corridors sustaining rebel factions in the northwest.
Armed groups exploiting Sudan civil war spillover: eastern border networks benefiting from degraded Sudanese containment capacity and open logistics corridors.