War / Africa
Ethiopian Civil War
Pretoria is dead, Abiy holds a supermajority, and three simultaneous insurgencies now face an Eritrea-Egypt external axis.
Pro-GNU
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
Pro-LNA
Conflict
Libya has been at war with itself since 2011, when a NATO-backed uprising killed Muammar Gaddafi and destroyed the institutions he had hollowed out over 42 years of one-man rule.
The country split in two in 2014 and has stayed split. The Government of National Unity (GNU) holds Tripoli and the west, backed by Turkish troops and drones. The Libyan National Army (LNA) under Khalifa Haftar holds the east, backed by the UAE, Egypt, and roughly 1,500 Russian personnel now operating as Africa Corps. A UN ceasefire froze the front line in 2020.
It also froze Russian and Turkish forces fifty miles apart on Libya's coast, where they remain.
Turkey's June 2026 Benghazi mission, led by Foreign Ministry Director General Ali Onaner and received by Saddam Haftar, is the sharpest realignment in Libya's external leverage map in years.
Ankara has shed its exclusively western-camp posture and now holds active institutional ties to both Libyan commands, giving it coercive leverage over any reunification framework that no other external sponsor currently holds.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
Turkey's Benghazi pivot structurally repositions Ankara as the only external actor with active institutional ties to both Libyan power centers, giving it veto-adjacent leverage over any reunification framework.
The Boulos roadmap's direct engagement with Dbeibah's nephew and Haftar's son bypasses formal institutions and confers US legitimacy on hereditary consolidation.
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi's assassination eliminates the one figure capable of aggregating pro-Gaddafi, tribal, and southern constituencies outside the duopoly.
Africa Corps (formerly Wagner, approximately 1,500 personnel) sustains LNA military logistics and provides the eastern command with deniable Russian force.
Turkey-backed western militias provide the GNU with drone capability, training, and force projection under the 2019 military cooperation framework.
Ukrainian covert specialist teams, deployed to Misrata and Mellitah in coordination with the GNU, provide deniable technical capacity on the western front.
Subul al-Salam, a Haftar-affiliated militia, manages organized fuel smuggling convoys through the Kalinga-Majdoul corridor toward Chad and Sudan.
Ahmed Gadalla, a Dubai-based commercial broker tied to Haftar, converts wartime financing channels into peacetime leverage over eastern Libyan credit and oil.
PRO-LNA
War / Africa
Pretoria is dead, Abiy holds a supermajority, and three simultaneous insurgencies now face an Eritrea-Egypt external axis.
War / Africa
RSF masses on El Obeid as the US warns of imminent massacre and the RSF's parallel state consolidates across western.