War / Africa
Ethiopian Civil War
Federal drone strikes on Mekelle and a deadlocked multi-front insurgency push Ethiopia toward renewed full-scale war.
Pro-GNU
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
Pro-LNA
Conflict
Libya
Libya has been at war with itself since 2011, when a NATO-backed uprising killed Muammar Gaddafi and destroyed the institutions he had hollowed out over 42 years of one-man rule.
The country split in two in 2014 and has stayed split. The Government of National Unity (GNU) holds Tripoli and the west, backed by Turkish troops and drones. The Libyan National Army (LNA) under Khalifa Haftar holds the east, backed by the UAE, Egypt, and roughly 1,500 Russian personnel now operating as Africa Corps. A UN ceasefire froze the front line in 2020.
It also froze Russian and Turkish forces fifty miles apart on Libya's coast, where they remain.
The August 30 UN-facilitated 4+4 agreement is the most structured political accord Libya has produced in years, but it faces immediate structural competition from a US-brokered power-sharing framework that would permanently ratify the Haftar-Dabaiba duopoly rather than dissolve it through elections.
The two tracks are incompatible: one demands a unified executive formed through a vote, the other rewards the existing split with American oil investment as the incentive.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The August 30 roadmap and the Boulos framework are structurally incompatible: one requires elections that dissolve the Dabaiba-Haftar duopoly, the other ratifies it permanently with US oil investment as the incentive.
The end-September parliamentary endorsement deadline and October 31 UNSMIL mandate expiry create a compressed spoiler window in which either bloc can kill the electoral track by delay alone.
The late-July protest wave that briefly halted a major oil and gas complex and demanded removal of both governments is a legitimacy rupture, not a routine grievance cycle.
War / Africa
Federal drone strikes on Mekelle and a deadlocked multi-front insurgency push Ethiopia toward renewed full-scale war.
War / Africa
Sudan's army fights on across Khartoum while a chlorine munitions dossier and a US embargo push reshape the conflict's accountability.
Africa Corps (formerly Wagner, approximately 1,500 personnel) sustains LNA military logistics and provides the eastern command with deniable Russian force.
Turkey-backed western militias provide the GNU with drone capability, training, and force projection under the 2019 military cooperation framework.
Ukrainian covert specialist teams, deployed to Misrata and Mellitah in coordination with the GNU, provide deniable technical capacity on the western front.
Subul al-Salam, a Haftar-affiliated militia, manages institutionalized fuel-smuggling convoys through the Kalinga-Majdoul checkpoint toward Chad and Sudan.
Tosyali-SULB joint venture, a Turkish-Libyan industrial partnership building an 8.1-million-tonne direct-reduced-iron complex in Benghazi.