War / Africa
Sudan Civil War
Sudan's war regionalizes as basing-for-weapons deals deepen and RSF arms bleed into South Sudan.
Pro-GNU
No linked actors classified on this side yet.
Pro-LNA
Conflict
Libya
Libya has been at war with itself since 2011, when a NATO-backed uprising killed Muammar Gaddafi and destroyed the institutions he had hollowed out over 42 years of one-man rule.
The country split in two in 2014 and has stayed split. The Government of National Unity (GNU) holds Tripoli and the west, backed by Turkish troops and drones. The Libyan National Army (LNA) under Khalifa Haftar holds the east, backed by the UAE, Egypt, and roughly 1,500 Russian personnel now operating as Africa Corps. A UN ceasefire froze the front line in 2020.
It also froze Russian and Turkish forces fifty miles apart on Libya's coast, where they remain.
The US-brokered Haftar-Dabaiba compact, brokered by Trump envoy Massad Boulos with Saddam Haftar brought to Washington for a Rubio meeting, hit its first structural obstacle before ink dried: late-July protests in Tripoli demanded the removal of both rival governments simultaneously, cutting across the deal's architecture rather than choosing sides within it.
It matters because the civil war continues to tie down the main belligerents, pull in outside backers, and shape the security balance across Africa.
Weekly net escalation pressure, last 90 days
The late-July protests are structurally significant beyond their immediate scale: demonstrators targeted both governments simultaneously, signaling that popular legitimacy has collapsed for the entire elite compact.
The Boulos framework's oil-output tripling assumption is doubly exposed: it requires unified field management that neither party controls.
Italy's public rupture with Washington over the Iran war removes Rome as a stabilizing diplomatic backstop in Tripoli at the moment the US-brokered framework most needs external anchoring.
War / Africa
Sudan's war regionalizes as basing-for-weapons deals deepen and RSF arms bleed into South Sudan.
War / Africa
Ethiopia's multi-front war deepens as Fano consolidates, Tigray ceasefire collapses, and the Egypt-Eritrea axis hardens into operational infrastructure.
Africa Corps (formerly Wagner, approximately 1,500 personnel) sustains LNA military logistics and provides the eastern command with deniable Russian force.
Turkey-backed western militias provide the GNU with drone capability, training, and force projection under the 2019 military cooperation framework.
Ukrainian covert specialist teams, deployed to Misrata and Mellitah in coordination with the GNU, provide deniable technical capacity on the western front.
Subul al-Salam, a Haftar-affiliated militia, manages institutionalized fuel-smuggling convoys through the Kalinga-Majdoul checkpoint toward Chad and Sudan.
Ahmed Gadalla, a Dubai-based commercial broker tied to Haftar, channels wartime financing into peacetime leverage over eastern Libyan credit and oil markets.