War / Africa
Ethiopian Civil War
Federal drone strikes on Mekelle and a deadlocked multi-front insurgency push Ethiopia toward renewed full-scale war.
South Sudan
South Sudan won independence from Sudan in 2011 and has spent most of its short existence at war with itself.
President Salva Kiir and his rival Riek Machar led a civil war from 2013 to 2018 that killed nearly 400,000 people, then signed a peace deal making them president and deputy in the same government. In 2025 Kiir arrested Machar, the deal collapsed, and their forces are fighting again across Upper Nile and Jonglei. Uganda backs Kiir. Machar's Nuer militias fight on without him.
Every peace on offer here has asked the same two men to share power, and both attempts have ended in war.
South Sudan's civil war has no political off-ramp, and the structural environment around it is deteriorating on two flanks simultaneously.
Machar remains detained with communications cut, his treason trial proceeding without consolidated successor leadership inside the SPLM-IO, leaving the White Army as a distributed Nuer insurgency only loosely tethered to any political authority.
Machar's isolation remains the central variable: with communications cut and a treason trial under way, the SPLM-IO lacks unified command and no successor leadership has consolidated authority.
Sudan's SAF-RSF conflict has escalated into urban combat in Khartoum with the civilian transition suspended.
Uganda's succession contest now centers on Museveni's son consolidating power through military control rather than civilian office.
PRO-KIIR
Sep 9, 2026
Stable
Political
Rival Claims Split Tooro Kingdom Succession in Uganda
A twenty-one member clan committee named a state broadcaster anchor as successor to the late King Oyo, while the royal family pointed to an unnamed boy heir first disclosed by the kingdom's prime minister and echoed by Uganda's president.
Date unknown
Escalating
Political
Uganda's Succession Contest Shifts to Military Control
Following January elections that returned Museveni for a seventh term, his son and chief of the defense forces has emerged as the front-runner to succeed him, drawing power from control of the army rather than from office.
Date unknown
Stable
Institutional
UNHCR Sets Goal of Halving Protracted Refugee Displacement by 2035
With more than 40 million refugees at the end of 2025 and almost seven in ten in displacement lasting five years or more, the agency proposes halving the protracted and aid-dependent caseload by 2035.
Date unknown
De-escalating
Military
Sudanese Army and Rapid Support Forces Clash Across Khartoum
Fighting erupted between the Sudan Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in Khartoum and across the country, killing at least 180 civilians in the first three days and driving combat into urban districts for the first time.
War / Africa
Federal drone strikes on Mekelle and a deadlocked multi-front insurgency push Ethiopia toward renewed full-scale war.
War / Africa
Sudan's army fights on across Khartoum while a chlorine munitions dossier and a US embargo push reshape the conflict's accountability.
Uganda (UPDF): Has deployed ground forces in previous conflict rounds backing Kiir's government.
White Army (Nuer militia network): Operates as the primary irregular fighting force aligned with SPLM-IO.
Sudan arms bleed (SAF-RSF spillover): Collapsed border controls from the SAF-RSF war, now intensified by urban combat in Khartoum.